Summary: Heavy rain in western NY, western Pa and eastern Oh were associated with…

  • Upper-level divergence associated with the right entrance of an upper-level jet.

  • A potential vorticity maxima in the mid-troposphere associated with latent heating and enhanced upper-tropospheric outflow.

  • A strong low-to mid-tropospheric southeasterly jet (around 50 kts).

  • A very moist airmass (precipitable waters around 2 inches).

  • Strong, sloping frontogenesis with distinct maxima in the lower and upper-troposphere.

  • Mid-level gravitational instability (including a possible MAUL) between 600 and 700 mb, with symmetric instability indicated just below 700 mb.

  • High freezing level / efficient rainfall process / underestimation of the rain by radar.

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