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NAM 850 mb Theta-e advection
By 00 UTC on the 3rd, the maximum of theta-e advection at 850 mb was forecast to remain across New York and northern Pennsylvania. Wind speeds at 850 mb were forecast to be around 50 kts from the southeast. (Subsequent observational data from area VAD wind profilers and other profilers indicated that speed of 40 to 50 kts developed around 850 mb).