• The NAM and GFS models were in agreement on a heavy precipitation event associated with a rapidly deepening cyclone over the mid-Atlantic area from the surface through the mid-troposphere.

  • The GFS model was forecasting the center of low pressure farther northwest than the NAM, with its maximum of precipitation also farther northwest.

  • Antecedent conditions were extremely favorable for flooding.

  • Factors forecast to be favorable for heavy precipitation included a rapidly deepening cyclone, a 50 kt 850 mb southeasterly jet, strong theta-advection, strong isentropic lift, high precipitable water values, and strong frontogenesis co-located with reduced EPV.

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