Eta forecast sounding at ELM valid 10/25 17z.

ELM sounding

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Speaker Notes:

At 17z, while BGM had gone over the snow, the 5 hour NAM sounding at ELM was still indicating rain, with a warm boundary layer. Note that the precipitation at this time was not forecast to be as heavy as at BGM (light rain indicated by the 2 green dots). Subsequent observations at ELM (shown on the next slide) indicate that, indeed, the precipitation at ELM remained all rain through much of the afternoon. Even higher elevations in the ELM area received mainly rain from this event. This is an indication that the NAM model was able to correctly modify the boundary layer thermal structure of its forecast temperature profiles at BGM and ELM, based on a good forecast of precipitation intensity at those two locations.

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