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  • Only 2 misses out of 18 forecasts (2 times when the observed p-type was not the most likely p-type)!!!!

  • This success rate of 0.89 was higher than the rate for any algorithm from a single model (best was 0.78 for GFS Bourgoin).


The overall results indicated that the SREF probability of precipitation type forecasts were quite skillful. In fact, they appeared to out-perform the algorithm output from any of the single model forecasts.

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