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Final Summary

  • Events on December 16, 2007 and February 1, 2008 were associated with similar synoptic patterns.

  • Both represented difficult precipitation-type forecast challenges.

  • Model forecast errors made forecasts even more challenging.

  • The top down method worked most of the time (given good model forecasts). Biggest problem was during a period when the dendrite zone was unusually high (early on December 16).

  • SREF p-type probabilities worked very well; overall they appeared to out-perform algorithm output from single models.

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