21Z Surface Plot
Slide 16 of 52
By 21Z, temperatures and dew points have continued to rise as the low level moisture continued to push into eastern New York. The dew point at BGM has risen to a whopping 76 degrees. Collective memory of personnel at the NWS in Binghamton could only recall one instance when the dew point was this high -- July 15, 1995. At this time, thunderstorms were starting to develop over northern lower Michigan ahead of the slowly advancing cold front. Despite the warm, moist unstable air present, no convection had developed across New York or Pennsylvania because of the convective lid, or cap caused by the warm mid level temperatures. However, within the next hour or two, the Lake Erie and Lake Ontario lake breeze boundaries were expected to collide across and east of the Niagara penninsula.