MM5 Run - Real-Time Configuration
Slide 44 of 52
This is a loop of surface winds and 1-hour accumulated precipitation from the MM5 run using the real-time configuration (Grell convection scheme) from 16Z to 08Z. The model appears to accurately capture the convective initiation over Michigan, and also indicates that the Huron lake breeze circulation may have played a role in the thunderstorm development. MM5 subsequently develop what appears to be a squall line with 1-hour rainfall rates of 0.4 to 0.6 inches. The model moves the squall line across Lake Ontario into central New York at approximately the same time as the observed derecho. This MM5 simulation tracked the apparent squall line a little north of the observed storm, with the core of the simulated squall line moving over the city of Oswego, which is approximately 25 miles north-northwest of Syracuse.
Click here for a loop of the MM5 forecast hourly rainfall and surface winds