FXUS61 KBOX 080852 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 352 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009 .SYNOPSIS... A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS S OF THE REGION AND PRODUCES AN INCREASING W TO SW FLOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER WEATHER AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND MILDER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A COLD FRONT WAS ENTERING NEW YORK STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WAS TRANSPORTING MILDER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE CROSSING THE AREA DUE TO A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SW FLOW AND CLOUD COVER ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING BUT OVERALL THERE WILL BE LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE TODAY FROM JUST PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES MILDER THAN YESTERDAYS. H925 TEMPS AROUND +10 CELSIUS WITH NEAR DRY ADIABATIC MIXING TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THAT LEVEL SUPPORTS HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO VARY CONSIDERABLY FROM THE WARMER HIGH TERRAIN AND URBAN CENTERS TO THE COLDER OUTLYING SUBURBS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD...BUT DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW SHARP RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS LOW LYING SECTIONS. MONDAY...BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH AND PROVIDES AN INCREASING SW FLOW. DECIDED TO GO A FEW DEGREES MILDER THAN MOS GUIDANCE AS VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES. THIS WOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES AWAY FROM RECORD HIGHS LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT EXPECTING RECORD HIGHS AT THIS TIME. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND HPC GUIDANCE WAS UTILIZED FOR THIS FORECAST...WITH THE MOST WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE ECMWF. IT LOOKS AS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A COUPLE OF FANTASTIC NOVEMBER DAYS FEATURING DRY MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON MONDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD RESULT IN MAXES A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...WE ARE A LITTLE BIT UNSURE OF THE EXACT TIMING...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF SEEMS LIKE A GOOD FIT AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND HIGHS NEAR 70 IN A LOT OF PLACES TUESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. I WOULDN/T BE COMPLETELY SHOCKED TO SEE SOME LOCATIONS TOP OUT IN THE 70-75F RANGE IF SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUD- FREE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY AND THE FRONT DOESN/T COME THROUGH AS FAST AS THE NAM IS SHOWING. WE HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT FROM NW-SE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME...WE PREFERRED THE ECMWF AS HIGHLIGHTED ABOVE. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS LOOKS TO BE OVERAMPLIFYING THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE...AND THEN MERGES WHATEVER IS LEFT OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WITH THAT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE FOR THE WED-THURS TIME FRAME. THIS RESULTS IN A MONSTER COASTAL STORM WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND BLINDING SNOWFALL FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME...BUT THAT SOLUTION IS BEING DISCOUNTED. INSTEAD...WE GO WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR THE WED-FRI TIME FRAME. A BRIEF COLD SHOT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND WINDY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPERIENCED ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE TEMPS WARM AGAIN FOR THE THE OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FOR NOW...WE ARE PLAYING THE FORECAST DRY FOR WED-SAT PERIOD. WE WILL STILL KEEP AN CLOSE EYE ON THE MIDWEEK FORECAST...AS MORE AMPLIFICATION IN THE PATTERN MAY RESULT IN A MORE INTERESTING SCENARIO THAN WHAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE GOING...BUT NOT LIKELY TO THE EXTREME AS THE 12Z GFS. && .AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... TODAY...VFR. LEFTOVER BKN ALTOCUMULUS AROUND 8000 FT THROUGH 12Z. TONIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED GROUND FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. MONDAY...VFR. SCATTERED SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON INLAND. OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FORESEEN FOR LATE TUE AND TUE EVENING. THIS MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TUE NIGHT AND WED. && .MARINE... TODAY...LEFTOVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH. TONIGHT...WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT. SEAS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER AND REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME SCATTERED 25 GUSTS NEAR SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT. OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... GRADUALLY INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL BE SEEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MAINLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY EVENING. NORTHERLY SCA WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE FORESEEN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED WITH A CHANCE OF LOW-END GALE GUSTS. WINDS AND SEAS THEN SUBSIDE FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY 11/9...FOR REFERENCE BOS 74 IN 1945 PVD 74 IN 1945 BDL 76 IN 1975 ORH 71 IN 1945 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ235-250-254>256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/STRAUSS NEAR TERM...STRAUSS SHORT TERM...STRAUSS LONG TERM...EKSTER AVIATION...EKSTER/STRAUSS MARINE...EKSTER/STRAUSS CLIMATE...STRAUSS