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July 2009
North Country Monthly Climate Summary

TEMPERATURE SUMMARY...

THE TREND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE MONTH OF JULY WITH TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF NEGATIVE 2 TO 3 DEGREES ON AVERAGE ACROSS VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK. ANOTHER INTERESTING SIDE NOTE IS THAT BURLINGTON DID NOT HIT THE 90 DEGREE MARK DURING THE MONTH OF JULY OR JUNE. THE LAST TIME THE 90 DEGREE MARK WASN'T REACHED IN NEITHER JUNE OR JULY WAS THE SUMMER OF 2004. BURLINGTON WASN'T ALONE IN MISSING THE 90 DEGREE MARK WITH NO OFFICIAL WEATHER OBSERVING STATIONS IN THE BURLINGTON AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. JUST LIKE JUNE THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION KEPT THE AREA UNDER CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE MONTH WITH BURLINGTON REPORTING CLOUDY OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON 27 OUT OF 31 DAYS. THE LACK OF SUNSHINE KEPT THE STRONG JULY SUN FROM WARMING THE REGION TO THE DAILY NORMS. THE ONLY BREAK IN THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE STREAK WAS THE LAST WEEK IN JULY WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RETREATED TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS ALLOWED WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS DURING THE 25-30TH. THE WARM WEATHER IN THE LAST WEEK OF THE MONTH SUPPRESSED THE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES THAT WERE RUNNING 4 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW THE NORM DURING THE FIRST 3 WEEKS.

TEMPERATURE STATISTICS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE MONTH OF JULY...

  Burlington Montpelier Massena Saint Johnsbury
Avg. Temp 68.2 65.7 66.9 65.4
Departure -2.4 -1.6 -2.9 -3.4
Highest 88 ON 29 86 ON 29 84 ON 29,28 85 ON 29
Lowest 52 ON 15,06 47 ON 13,06 48 ON 15 49 ON 13,06

BELOW ARE DAILY TEMPERATURE GRAPHS FOR THE MONTH OF MAY FOR EACH BURLINGTON, MONTPELIER, MASSENA, AND SAINT JOHNSBURY.

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PRECIPITATION SUMMARY...

JULY WAS A WET MONTH ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH ALL LOCATIONS RECEIVING ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL WITH THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS RUTLAND COUNTY AND THE LOWEST RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS WESTERN SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS VERMONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT WITH RAIN SURPLUS AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ON AVERAGE. SURPLUS AMOUNTS WERE LOWER IN THE BURLINGTON AREA WITH THE AIRPORT ONLY RECEIVING +0.65 INCHES...BUT AMOUNTS WERE HIGHER IN OTHER REGIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. IN NORTHERN NEW YORK RAINFALL SURPLUSES AVERAGED 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS BOTH THE ADIRONDACKS AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WAS IN WESTERN SAINT LAWRENCE COUNTY WERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE CLOSE TO AVERAGE. RAINFALL OCCURED VERY FREQUENTLY DURING THE MONTH WITH BURLINGTON RECEIVING MEASUREABLE RAINFALL 17 DAYS OUT OF THE MONTH. THE WET JULY PUT THE YEARLY SURPLUS AT +2.27 INCHES WITH A YEAR TO DATE TOTAL OF 21.95 INCHES AT THE BURLINGTON AIRPORT.

PRECIPITATION STATISTICS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE MONTH OF JULY...

  Burlington Montpelier Massena Saint Johnsbury
Monthly Total " 4.62 7.40 4.98 5.14
Departure +0.65 +4.14 +1.63 +1.30
Greatest 24hr 0.73 ON 17-18 1.79 ON 29-30 0.88 ON 15-16 0.82 ON 3-4
SNOW/SLEET
Monthly Total " 0 0 0 0
Departure 0 0 0 0
Greatest 24hr 0 0 0 0

BURLINGTON FORECAST AREA ACCUMULATED MONTHLY RAIN GAUGE PRECIPITATION (IN INCHES) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY.

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MONTHLY WEATHER PATTERNS AND GLOBAL CLIMATE DRIVERS...

THE WEATHER PATTERN OF JULY WAS VERY SIMILIAR TO THE MONTH OF JUNE WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION. THE MEAN TROUGH WAS PERSISTENTLY LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...WITH STRONG RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND ACROSS NORTHERN HUDSON BAY INTO GREENLAND. THE NORTH ATLANTIC RIDGING ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED A STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA...WHICH ALLOWED THE MEAN TROUGH TO STAY IN PLACE. AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CONTINUED TO ROTATE AROUND THE MEAN 500MB TROUGH THROUGH THE FIRST 3 WEEKS OF JULY. THE RESULT WAS ONCE AGAIN COOL...DAMP...AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS. DURING THE LAST WEEK OF JULY THE MEAN TROUGH RETROGRADED FURTHER WEST...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.

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THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IS FORECASTING EQUAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURE ACROSS VERMONT...WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROPABILITY FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH THIS FORECAST THE MONTH OF AUGUST HAS A BETTER CHANCE TO BE NEAR CLIMATE NORMS THEN THE PREVIOUS TWO SUMMER MONTHS...BUT THERE IS A LOW PROPABILITY FOR DRIER AND HOTTER THEN AVERAGE CONDITIONS.

OUT IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN THE EL NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) HAS SHIFTED TO ITS POSITIVE MODE...COMMONLY KNOWN AS EL NINO. THE ENSO CYCLE HAS BEEN DOMINATED BY EITHER ENSO NEUTRAL OR LA NINA CONDITIONS DURING THE PAST 2 YEARS WITH THE LAST EL NINO EPISODE OCCURING IN JANUARY OF 2007.

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER AUGUST 2009 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

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CLIMATE PREDICITION CENTER AUGUST 2009 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

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Burlington
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Figure 1: Burlington Monthly Temperature Trend
Figure 2: Montpelier Monthly Temperature Trend
Figure 3: Massena Monthly Temperature Trend
Figure 4: Saint Johnsbury Temperature Trend
Figure 5: Monthly Precipitation Map
Figure 6: Climate Prediction Center Precipitation Outlook
Figure 7: Climate Prediction Center Temperature Outlook
Figure 8: 500MB Geopotential Height Anomalies