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October 2009
North Country Monthly Climate Summary

TEMPERATURE SUMMARY...

MUCH OF THE MONTH OF OCTOBER WAS COOLER THAN NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ON AVERAGE, TEMPERATURE READINGS RAN 1 TO 4 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL WITH THE COLDEST ANOMALIES IN THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. WINTER MADE AN EARLY APPEARANCE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH AS MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLED TO REACH INTO THE 40S ON OR NEAR THE 15TH. IN FACT, SOME AREAS, SUCH AS BROOKFIELD, ISLAND POND, NEWCOMB, AND SARANAC LAKE SAW HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW. DAILY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD RAN SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL. THE END OF OCTOBER, HOWEVER, FINISHED ON THE WARM SIDE AS TEMPERATURES SOARED BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

TEMPERATURE STATISTICS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER...

  Burlington Montpelier Massena Saint Johnsbury
Avg. Temp 45.9 44.5 44.8 43.3
Departure -1.8 -1.1 -2.1 -3.7
Highest 67 ON 31 69 ON 31 66 ON 24 68 ON 31
Lowest 24 ON 19 20 ON 17 21 ON 19 20 ON 17

BELOW ARE DAILY TEMPERATURE GRAPHS FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER FOR EACH BURLINGTON, MONTPELIER, MASSENA, AND SAINT JOHNSBURY.

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PRECIPITATION SUMMARY...

MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY SAW NEAR NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. SOUTHEAST VERMONT SAW THE MOST RAINFALL, WITH MANY AREAS REPORTING OVER 5 INCHES FOR THE MONTH. THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY SAW THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN, GENERALLY AROUND 3 INCHES. THE BURLINGTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REPORTED 2.98 INCHES, WHICH WAS JUST 0.14 INCH BELOW NORMAL. ALTHOUGH THERE WERE SOME LIGHT RAIN EVENTS DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF WEEKS, THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION FELL OCTOBER 22-24, WHEN MANY AREAS SAW 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF VERMONT RECEIVED OVER 3 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD. MANY AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS, EXPERIENCED THEIR FIRST MEASUREABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON ON OCTOBER 12. WALDEN VERMONT MEASURED 3.2 INCHES OF SNOW, WHILE STRAFFORD REPORTED 2.5 INCHES, AND STOWE 2.0 INCHES.

PRECIPITATION STATISTICS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER...

  Burlington Montpelier Massena Saint Johnsbury
Monthly Total " 2.98 3.57 3.23 5.17
Departure -0.14 +0.45 +0.27 +1.93
Greatest 24hr 0.69 ON 23-24 1.30 ON 24 0.86 ON 23-24 2.10 ON 23-24
SNOW/SLEET
Monthly Total " TRACE 0.2
Greatest 24hr TRACE ON 14 0.2 ON 12

BURLINGTON FORECAST AREA ACCUMULATED MONTHLY RAIN GAUGE PRECIPITATION (IN INCHES) FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER.

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BURLINGTON FORECAST AREA ACCUMULATED MONTHLY SNOWFALL (IN INCHES) FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER.

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MONTHLY WEATHER PATTERNS AND GLOBAL CLIMATE DRIVERS...

THE WEATHER PATTERN OF OCTOBER WAS MAINLY CHARACTERIZED BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 500MB TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES, ALONG WITH ANOTHER OFF THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THIS KEPT NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND NEAR NORMAL FOR PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH. HOWEVER, THIS TROUGH SHIFTED EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE MONTH. THE RESULTANT COLD POOL OF AIR ALOFT ALLOWED TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH COUNTRY TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL. AS THIS TROUGH MOVED OUT OF THE REGION, WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN FELL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. AN ANOMOUSLY STRONG 500MB RIDGE QUICKLY FOLLOWED IN THE DEPARTING TROUGH'S FOOTSTEPS, QUICKLY BUILDING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THE INFLUX OF MILD AIR ON SOUTH FLOW RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 AREAWIDE AT THE END OF THE MONTH.

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THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IS FORECASTING EQUAL CHANCES FOR EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH NEW YORK AND ALL OF NEW ENGLAND. THE SAME HOLDS FOR TEMPERATURE, WITH EQUAL CHANCES FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL OR COOLER THAN NORMAL READINGS. WITH THIS FORECAST, NOVEMBER LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY NORMAL, GENERALLY COOL AND CLOUDY.

ALTHOUGH WEAK FOR MUCH OF SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER, EL NINO CONTINUES TO GAIN STRENGTH OUT IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS EL NINO STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FALL TO PEAK AT MODERATE STRENGTH. IT WILL THEN LAST THROUGH THE WINTER MONTHS INTO EARLY 2010.

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NOVEMBER 2009 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

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CLIMATE PREDICITION CENTER NOVEMBER 2009 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

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Figure 1: Burlington Monthly Temperature Trend
Figure 2: Montpelier Monthly Temperature Trend
Figure 3: Massena Monthly Temperature Trend
Figure 4: Saint Johnsbury Temperature Trend
Figure 5: Monthly Precipitation Map
Figure 6: Monthly Snowfall Map
Figure 7: 500MB Geopotential Height Anomalies
Figure 8: Climate Prediction Center Precipitation Outlook
Figure 9: Climate Prediction Center Temperature Outlook