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October 2010
North Country Monthly Climate Summary

TEMPERATURE SUMMARY...

October was, overall, a chilly month. Many locations ended up a degree or two colder than average, though a few were right at or very slightly above normal. The month was dominated by low pressure both at the surface aloft, which kept temperatures on the cool side. Although no real significant cold snaps were noted, a majority of the days were a few degrees below normal. There was one warm spell toward the end of October, the 26th through the 18th. High temperatures peaked in the upper 60s and lower 70s during this period, some 15 to 20 degrees above normal for those dates. Another trough moved in shortly thereafter, however, resulting in cold and blustery weather by Halloween night.

TEMPERATURE STATISTICS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE MONTH OF OCOTOBER...

  Burlington Montpelier Massena Saint Johnsbury
Avg. Temp 47.7 44.7 47.2 45.1
Departure 0.0 -0.9 +0.3 -1.9
Highest 72 on 26th 69 on 26th and 27th 69 on 27th 70 on 5th
Lowest 29 on 19th 25 on 19th 28 on 19th 27 on 23rd and 24th

Below are daily temperature graphs for the month of October for Burlington, Montpelier, Massena, and Saint Johnsbury.

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PRECIPITATION SUMMARY...

October was a very wet month, with several low pressure systems affecting the North Country over the period. The month started out rainy, with many locations receiving 1.5 inches or more on the 1st. Burlington broke a daily rainfall record that day, with 1.49 inches. More rain fell the 6th through the 8th, but the heaviest came in the middle of the month, on the 15th and 16th. Many sites received over 1.5 inches, while northern areas saw over 2 inches. Daily rainfall records were set at Saint Johnsbury (1.54 in), Burlington (2.14 in), and Montpelier (1.81 in. The summits of the Green Mountains and Adirondacks saw their first real snow during this period; Mount Mansfield broke daily records for precipitation and snowfall on the 16th, with 7 inches and 18 inches, respectively. Showery periods continued on and off throughout the remainder of the month. Many sites ended up more than 3 inches wetter than normal for the month. Mount Mansfield had its wettest and snowiest October on record; a total of 14.71 inches of liquid precipitation and 34.1 inches of snow fell atop Vermont's tallest peak during the month.

PRECIPITATION STATISTICS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER...

  Burlington Montpelier Massena Saint Johnsbury
Monthly Total " 6.24 7.11 4.06 6.75
Departure +3.12 +3.99 +1.10 +3.51
Greatest 24hr 2.66 on 30th-1st 4.36 on 30th-1st 3.41 on 30th-1st 4.38 on 20th-1st
SNOW/SLEET
Monthly Total " 0.1
Greatest 24hr 0.1 on 31st


BURLINGTON FORECAST AREA ACCUMULATED MONTHLY PRECIPITATION (IN INCHES) FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER

**Please note that this monthly total precipitation graphic was created with Cooperative Observer monthly data, which includes rainfall after 7 am September 30. Therefore, many of the reports shown below include the heavy rainfall that occurred with the storm that affected the region September 30 through October 1.**

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BURLINGTON FORECAST AREA ACCUMULATED MONTHLY SNOWFALL (IN INCHES) FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER

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MONTHLY WEATHER PATTERNS AND GLOBAL CLIMATE DRIVERS...

The 500 MB weather pattern over the North Country was dominated by low pressure. Averaged over the entire month, an anomalously strong trough lay across the Northeast United States into the Canadian Maritimes, while ridging stretched over the upper Plains and the northern Rocky Mountains. At the beginning of October, an abnormally strong ridge stretched across the central section of the United States, with a trough over the eastern third of the country. This was the pattern through mid-October, with the trough stregthening over time. By the third week in the month, the trough over the Northeast had slid eastward, and was replaced by weak ridging, allowing temperatures to rise slightly and the showery weather to turn dry. However, another strong trough quickly followed to close the month, resulting in another cool down and another round of rain and snow showers by Halloween.

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The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting slightly above normal temperatures for November, mainly in New York. Precipitation will be close to normal.

La Nina continued across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, where temperatures remained steady at 1.4 degrees Celsius below normal. La Nina is expected to last least into spring of 2011. Some forecast models indicate that La Nina will become strong November through January before gradually weakening. Expected impacts in the United States includes wetter-then-normal conditions in the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies, and Ohio Valley, while the south central and southeastern states will be drier than normal. The northern West Coast has a good chance of being cooler than normal, while the central and southern United States will be warmer than normal.

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NOVEMBER 2010 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

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CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NOVEMBER 2010 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

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Burlington
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Figure 1: Burlington Monthly Temperature Trend
Figure 2: Montpelier Monthly Temperature Trend
Figure 3: Massena Monthly Temperature Trend
Figure 4: Saint Johnsbury Temperature Trend
Figure 5: Monthly Precipitation Map
Figure 6: Monthly Snowfall Map
Figure 7: 500MB Geopotential Height Anomalies
Figure 8: Climate Prediction Center Precipitation Outlook
Figure 9: Climate Prediction Center Temperature Outlook