MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1576
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1104 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NY INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 161604Z - 161730Z
   
   THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IS
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.
   
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED COLD FRONT PUSHING EWD THROUGH THE LEE
   OF LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT /ORIENTED
   GENERALLY N-S/ SITUATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR UCA TO MSV TO WRN
   LONG ISLAND.  TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WITHIN CURRENTLY NARROW
   WARM SECTOR OVER WAYNE...CAYUGA AND ONONDAGA COUNTIES NY WHERE
   TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S...CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE
   OF AROUND 1000 J/KG.
   
   SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE
   IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AS
   IT APPROACHES THE HUDSON VALLEY.  CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
   COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
   MLCAPE TO 1000-2000 J/KG.  WHEN COUPLED WITH MODEST /30-40 KT/
   UNIDIRECTIONAL...DEEP WLY SHEAR...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT
   OF LINE SEGMENTS AND ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.
   
   ..MEAD.. 07/16/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...
   
   LAT...LON   42677602 43897553 44477484 44497418 44137307 42847264
               41767297 41267368 41417468 41887535 42677602