DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0745 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2009
   
   VALID 161300Z - 171200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SSEWD
   INTO OK/MID SOUTH AND PORTIONS OF AL/MS...
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   NORTHEASTERN STATES...
   
     ...NORTHEAST...
   MID-LEVEL FORCING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS APPEARS WEAK/UNCERTAIN
   ...BUT WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE
   RETURN OF 60F+ SURFACE DEW POINTS...AND SEASONABLY STRONG HEATING
   BENEATH FAIRLY COOL...CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF DIGGING
   MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  AS THIS OCCURS...SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS LIKELY TO INITIATE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
   AND NEAR N-S LEE TROUGH OVER ERN NY THIS AFTERNOON.  H5 WINDS AROUND
   40 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL AND SMALL LINEAR ORGANIZATION
   ...WITH GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES.  WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE
   HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREATS INTO THE EVENING.  HOWEVER A FEW
   TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO
   WRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE BACKED TO A MORE SSWLY
   DIRECTION.
   
   ..EVANS/HURLBUT.. 07/16/2009
   
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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z