SPC 12z Outlook
...WRN PA/WRN NY/OH VALLEY/MID MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH SWLY FLOW PRESENT ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND SEVERAL MCS CLUSTERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY
EVENING. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...THE MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS
ESPECIALLY WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE LOCALLY MAXIMIZED. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD DROP OFF DURING THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY