Notes
Slide Show
Outline
1
NOAA’s National Weather Service
  • Rutland Lake Effect Event
  •  29 October 2006


2
Forecast Challenge
  • Movement/Development of mid/upper level circulation
  • Cloud layer winds strong enough to push lake effect band into Rutland County
  • Temp profile and low level wind field on development of lake effect band
  • Would warm BL temps prevent significant snowfall accumulations


3
250mb Analysis on10/29/06 at 12z
4
500mb Analysis on10/29/06 at 00z
5
500mb Analysis on10/29/06 at 12z
6
700mb Analysis on10/29/06 at 12z
7
850mb Analysis on10/29/06 at 12z
8
925mb Analysis on10/29/06 at 12z
9
ALB Sounding 12z on Oct 29th
10
BUF Sounding 00z on Oct 29th
11
IR Sat and Sfc Obs 10/29/06 at 23Z
12
 
13
Vertical Cross-Section Across CPV and Northern Rutland County at 2115z
14
Vertical Cross-Section Across CPV and Northern Rutland County at 2330z
15
Event Pictures
16
Event Pictures
17
Conclusions
  • Strong 925mb to 850mb winds of 40 to 50 knots helped advect lake effect snow band across Dack into the Western Slopes of the Green Mtns
  • Unidirectional flow from 270˚ through 700mb helped to enhance upslope component
  • 12z soundings from (Aly and Buf) showed deep/well mixed layer through 500mb with steep sfc to 700mb lapse rates
  • The column had moisture with PWS around 0.50”
  • Warm BL temps prevented significant snow accumulation at Rutland…however Killington received 6 to 8 inches


18
Conclusions Continue
  • In addition…soundings showed plenty of moisture in the favorable dentritic snow growth region…which according to the pictures lead to large flake size
  • Very warm lake water temps combined with an unseasonably cold air-mass …provided increased amounts of instability and favorable dynamics for significant lake effect…with thunder/grapuel being reported near Oswego
  • Well channeled flow from sfc to 250mb associated with cutoff circulation moving from Eastern Great Lakes into Southern Canada helped to propagate lake band 200 to 300 km down wind of Lake Ontario