PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...LAKE ERIE ICE OUT / BUFFALO SPRINGS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1100 AM EDT MON APR 13 2009

..."ICE OUT" DATE AT BUFFALO HARBOR SIGNALS ANOTHER SPRING...

AFTER THREE MONTHS OF 32 DEGREE READINGS...THE WATER TEMPERATURE AT
THE BUFFALO HARBOR INTAKE JUMPED TO 35 DEGREES THIS MORNING. THIS
SIGNIFIES THE LOSS OF ANY ICE REMAINING FROM THE WINTERLONG ICEPACK
WHICH WAS ESTABLISHED ON LAKE ERIE BACK IN EARLY JANUARY. RECENT
SATELLITE SHOTS ALSO CONFIRM THE LOSS OF ICE IN THE EASTERN BASIN
OF LAKE ERIE...WITH JUST A REMNANT ALONG THE SHORELINE NEAR ANGOLA
THIS MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS OF RECENT DAYS HAVE HELPED PUSHED THE
REMAINING ICE BACK OUT INTO THE LAKE WHERE IT MIXED WITH WARMER
WATERS AND AIDED IN THE MELTING PROCESS.

THE "ICE" WINTER OF 2008-09 WAS ACTUALLY VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL ON
LAKE ERIE. IN A NORMAL WINTER...ICE IS PRESENT OFF BUFFALO FROM
JANUARY 11 UNTIL APRIL 17. THIS YEAR...THE DATES WERE JANUARY 10 AND
APRIL 13. THE OVERALL WINTER SEASON WAS SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN
NORMAL...WITH THE MOST INTENSE PERIOD BEING LATE DECEMBER AND
JANUARY...BUT THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WINTER SEASON WAS QUITE
MODERATE.

ONCE AGAIN...THE OFTEN CONTROVERSIAL "ICE BOOM" HAD LITTLE OR NO
EFFECT. IT IS COMMON OPINION ON THE NIAGARA FRONTIER THAT OUR OFTEN
COOL AND LATE SPRINGS ARE THE RESULT OF THE ICE BOOM. STATISTICS DO
NOT SUPPORT THIS POINT.

IT IS TRUE THAT SPRINGS IN THIS REGION CAN BE VERY COOL AND
LATE...BUT THIS IS DUE TO THE PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF LAKE
ERIE AND THE LAKE IS OFTEN ICE FILLED WELL INTO APRIL. BUT DOES THE
"BOOM" KEEP THE ICE IN ANY LONGER THAN IT WOULD WITHOUT IT?

THIS "ICE BOOM" IS A STRING OF LOGS PLACED ACROSS THE EASTERN END
OF LAKE ERIE JUST ABOVE ITS CONFLUENCE WITH THE NIAGARA RIVER EARLY
EACH WINTER. IT HELPS FORM A NATURAL ARCH (BRIDGE) OF ICE AND HOLDS
BACK LARGE CHUNKS OF ICE FROM MOVING DOWN THE NIAGARA RIVER DURING
WINTER AND EARLY SPRING. IT WAS FIRST USED DURING THE WINTER OF
1964-65. PRIOR TO THAT...ICE FLOWING DOWN THE NIAGARA RIVER OFTEN
RESULTED IN MAJOR DAMAGE TO DOCKS AND INTAKES FOR THE NIAGARA POWER
PLANT DOWNSTREAM. PER JOINT AGREEMENT WITH CANADA AND THE U.S. THIS
BOOM IS REMOVED WHEN THE REMAINING ICE FIELD HAS SHRUNK TO 250
SQUARE MILES OR LESS...USUALLY AROUND THE FIRST OF APRIL. IT THEN
TAKES ABOUT TWO WEEKS FOR ALL THE ICE TO MELT AND/OR FLOW DOWN THE
RIVER.

IN A NORMAL WINTER...OVER 8000 SQUARE MILES OF ICE FORM IN LAKE ERIE
AND NEARLY ALL OF THAT MELTS IN PLACE...AS ONLY A TINY FRACTION CAN
GO DOWN THE SMALL OPENING OF THE NIAGARA RIVER. THE PREVAILING WINDS
OFTEN JAM UP THE ICE AT THE EASTERN END OF THE LAKE NEAR BUFFALO
ANYWAY...AND AN ICE "ARCH" WOULD FORM WITH OR WITHOUT THE BOOM. THIS
BOOM JUST FACILITATES THIS FORMATION.

THIS SPRING WAS SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL DUE TO THE PREPONDERANCE OF
NORTHEAST WINDS...SO MOST OF THE ICE WAS PUSHED BACK INTO THE LAKE
AND MELTED EVEN FASTER. EVEN LESS HAS GONE DOWN THE RIVER THAN USUAL.

WATER TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN KEPT AT BUFFALO SINCE 1927 AT THE WATER
INTAKE ABOUT 20 FEET BELOW THE SURFACE. WHEN A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
ICE IS PRESENT...THE LAKE TEMPERATURE READS 32 OR 33. IN ANALYZING
THE DATE WHEN THE LAKE TEMPERATURE REACHES 34 OR HIGHER IN
SPRING...WHICH WE ASSUME IS THE DATE OF "ICE OUT"...WE FIND ONLY A
ONE DAY DIFFERENCE IN THE AVERAGE DATE FROM THE 38 YEARS PRIOR TO
THE ICE BOOM INSTALLATION (1964) AND THE 45 YEARS SINCE. THIS IS
CONSIDERED A VALID COMPARISON. THE AVERAGE "ICE OUT" DATES:

...PRE-BOOM (1927-1964)....APRIL 18.
...POST-BOOM (1965-2009)...APRIL 17.
...DIFFERENCE...  1 DAY (EARLIER)


SO...IF DOWNTOWN BUFFALO IS TOO COLD ON A DAY IN APRIL OR
MAY...BLAME OUR LOCATION AT THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ERIE...BUT NOT
ON THE ICE BOOM!