Maximum Snowfall: Lk. Erie: 8" (Warsaw); Lk. Ontario: 19" (N.Osceola).

Duration: 48 Hours +/-

Prime Feature: Frontal interraction and pre-frontal enhancement, first of season.

Lake Flake Scale: * 1 Flake

The 2002-03 winter season began just as the calendar turned from October to November as the first arctic air mass overspread western and central New York. This event was really a combination of lake effect and frontal action so totals were not all lake effect...but enough to give this one a name. Totals for the two day event were relatively modest east of Lake Erie...generally in the 4 to 6 inch range over higher elevations well south of Buffalo. Portions of the Tug Hill did receive over a foot total...with a strip across Oswego County in the 4 to 8 inch range.

The event began right around midnight on Friday the 1^st off the eastern end of Lake Ontario with snowbands setting up across the Tug Hill. This band remained nearly stationary until midday and dropped up to 10" at Highmarket and North Osceola by then. Only an inch or two fell off Lake Erie as instability was less and wind shear greater.

A sharp arctic front dropped across the region Friday Afternoon and dropped a quick inch or so across all areas. This disrupted the lake effect...but it did reorganize briefly Friday evening over the western southern tier where 2 to 4 inches fell. There was little reorganization southeast of Lake Ontario Friday night. A ridge built in briefly during Saturday and shut all activity down briefly...before a secondary trof approached eastern Lake Ontario Saturday night. An intense band of Lake snow developed ahead of this feature on a good 280-290 flow for several hours Saturday evening. Heavy snow fell in a narrow band across northeast Wayne...northern Cayuga...and much of Oswego counties. Some thunder was even reported there. Lake Erie remained quiet,. After the second frontal passage...all activity ended by midnight due to great shear and subsidence.

Overall...the event was relatively minor and spread out so caused no problems. It focused on two periods...both just ahead of frontal passages with the associated lift. It’s major impact was over very thinly populated areas. Most of the snow melted between episodes. The event was overforecasted...especially off Lake Erie. It earns a modest rating of (*) one star.

Here are some representative amounts (these include frontal snow as well)....