LAKE EFFECT SUMMARY
FEBRUARY 17-21, 2006
scale: ** 2 Flakes
Maximum Snowfall: Lk. Erie: 9" (Darien, Warsaw). Lk. Ontario: 35" (Hooker).
Duration: 96 Hours +/-
Prime Feature: Long lasting multipart event, primarily Lake Ontario, marginal Lake Erie, late season.
Lake Flake Scale: ** 2 Flakes
The event then weakened but never really died completely on Saturday as drier air advected in, cutting down the process, especially off Lake Erie. In addition, a secondary arctic front dropped across the area during the late morning with a burst of snow, then lake effect set up again for awhile Saturday night into Sunday morning but only amounted to 1-4 inches east of Lake Erie and 3 to 6 inches over the Tug Hill region and Oswego county.
The flow turned westerly Sunday morning and parameters improved to allow for consolidation of an intense band east of Lake Ontario by the afternoon over the Jefferson-Oswego county line and on across the northern Tug Hill of Lewis County. This band was nearly steady state Sunday night into Monday, before weakening a bit and lifting north Monday afternoon. One to two feet fell in a narrow area here. The activity lifted north into the St. Lawrence valley for awhile late Monday night and Tuesday morning dropping a few inches, then dropped south again during Tuesday and lifting north Tuesday night and dissipating. Little further accumulation occurred after midday Tuesday (21st).
The Lake Erie activity
was much less organized and presented major forecast challenges due to marginal
parameters such as drier air, more shear, strong winds, and milder temperatures.
It tried to organize a bit during midday Sunday as it lifted north and dropped 2
to 4 inches over parts of southern Erie and up into southwest Genesee counties
but then fell apart during the afternoon as it passed up across the Buffalo area
due to late season diurnal factors and dry air advection. This process repeated
itself to a lesser degree during Monday with light activity lifting north and
dissipating in the Buffalo area. Finally though, as a frontal trof approached
Monday night, the low levels moistened up and lake snow blossomed over the
Buffalo metro area, dropping 3 to 5 inches into Tuesday morning. This was not
handled well at all by mesoscale models or our forecast. Finally a stronger
front broke this up midday Tuesday, but all in all, The 4 day activity off
Lake Erie was quite minor and spread out.
This was a long lasting event with some breaks. Heavier amounts fell off Lake Ontario but affected little population. The Lake Erie activity was lighter and sporadic but did have some impact on Buffalo metro for Tuesday morning's commute. Overall then, it earns two ** Stars **.
Off Lake Erie
|Buffalo metro||6 inches|
|Rochester metro||5 inches|
Off Lake Ontario
|N. Ocseola||16 inches|