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El Niño
- Monthly Comparisons by City
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Cold and warm episodes of ENSO are defined by CPC when the threshold
of +/- 0.5 C for the Oceanic Nino Index (3 month running average of sea surface temperatures between 5 deg N-5 deg S, 120-170 deg W) is met
for a minimum of 5 consecutive over-lapping seasons.
(temperature departures from 1971-2000 30 year normal)
Weak El Niño 0.5-1.0° C ... Moderate El Niño 1.0-1.5° C
... Strong El Niño 1.5° C and warmer
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Weak El Niño events have shown the least
amount of influence on wintertime temperature departures in Buffalo, with a tendency for temperatures to actually average below normal
during the second half of the winter season. Meanwhile, moderate to strong El
Niño events typically produce above normal temperatures. This is
especially the case during December when temperatures have averaged 3.5 deg F
above normal during moderate El Niño’s and over 5 deg F during strong El
Niño’s. |
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El Niño’s during the month of November typically have little influence on
temperatures in
Rochester. This dramatically changes as winter sets in. Moderate to strong El Niño events
are shown to typically produce above normal temperatures, while the weak events
tend to produce below normal temperatures. Like Buffalo
and Watertown, weak El Niño’s produce their coldest conditions during weak February events.
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Moderate to strong El Niño’s help to produce warmer than normal conditions in Watertown during the bulk of the winter season. This is especially the case in December when temperatures during strong events average more than 5 deg F above normal! Conversely, weak El Niño events have shown to have a greater negative effect on temperatures than those in Rochester and Buffalo. While all three cities exhibit below normal average temperatures during weak El Niño’s in second half of winter, mercury readings in Watertown average about 2 degrees F below normal. |
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National Weather Service
Weather Forecast Office Buffalo
587 Aero Drive
Buffalo, N.Y. 14225-1405
(716)565-0204 or (716)565-0802
Webmaster:Webmaster
Page last modified: October 07, 2004
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