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WFO Columbia Hydrologic Outlook

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
739 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2009

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...

THIS SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK IS FOR RIVERS AND 
TRIBUTARIES OF THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN IN EAST CENTRAL 
GEORGIA AND CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING BASINS:

SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN DOWNSTREAM OF R. B. RUSSELL LAKE AND UPSTREAM 
FROM BURTONS FERRY

THE EDISTO RIVER BASIN NORTH OF THE BAMBERG...ORANGEBURG COUNTY LINE 
IN SOUTH CAROLINA

THE SANTEE RIVER BASIN UPSTREAM OF THE CLARENDON/BERKLEY COUNTY LINE 
AND DOWNSTREAM ON THE SALUDA AND BROAD RIVERS AT THE GREENWOOD/ 
SALUDA...LAURENS/NEWBERRY...UNION/FAIRFIELD AND THE CHESTER/ 
FAIRFIELD COUNTY LINES...

THE WATEREE RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF GREAT FALLS SOUTH CAROLINA

THE PEE DEE RIVER BASIN IN CHESTERFIELD COUNTY IN SOUTH CAROLINA.

...SUMMARY OF RECENT WEATHER EVENTS...

A LONG DURATION RAINFALL EVENT WHICH EXTENDED FROM MARCH 13 THROUGH 
MARCH 16 RESULTED IN ELEVATED FLOWS ON SOME RIVERS...BUT ALL 
REMAINED BELOW FLOOD STAGE. OVER THE PAST 7 DAYS ENDING ON MARCH 18 
PRECIPITATION AVERAGED AROUND NORMAL TO 0.5 INCHES BELOW NORMAL 
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND AREAS OF GEORGIA ALONG THE 
SAVANNAH RIVER. AREAS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME 
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAS RAINFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGED BETWEEN 0.5 AND ONE 
INCH BELOW NORMAL.  THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER 
BASIN...HOWEVER HAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 0.5 TO 1 INCH ABOVE 
NORMAL. THIS WAS ALSO TRUE OVER A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST SOUTH 
CAROLINA.  

...SOIL MOISTURE...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR VALID ON MARCH 19 2009 FOR DATA THROUGH 
MARCH 17 2009 SHOWED THE FOLLOWING...

D3...EXTREME DROUGHT...COVERED A SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST SOUTH 
CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA WITH ALL OF THE AREA INSIDE THIS 
BOUNDARY IN THAT CATEGORY...FROM NORTHEAST GEORGIA ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN THIRD OF ABBEVILLE COUNTY NORTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST CORNER 
OF LAURENS COUNTY AND THEN NORTH NORTHEAST TO NORTH CENTRAL 
SPARTANBURG COUNTY AND THEN SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN OCONEE COUNTY 
BACK INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

D2...SEVERE DROUGHT...SURROUNDED THE D3 AREA WITH THE SOUTHEAST 
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA ACROSS NORTHWEST 
MCCORMICK COUNTY NORTHEAST TO NORTH CENTRAL CHEROKEE COUNTY INTO 
NORTH CAROLINA. 


D1...MODERATE DROUGHT...WAS SOUTHEAST OF THE D2 AREA WITH THE
SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA ACROSS 
CENTRAL MCCORMICK COUNTY EAST TO CENTRAL FAIRFIELD COUNTY AND THEN 
NORTHEAST TO CENTRAL YORK COUNTY INTO NORTH CAROLINA.

THERE WAS A SECOND AREA OF MODERATE DROUGHT...D1...WHICH COVERED
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH THE NORTHERN 
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN 
ALLENDALE COUNTY EAST TO WESTERN CHARLESTON COUNTY TO THE 
ATLANTIC COAST.

D0...ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS...COVERED THE REST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA EXCEPT PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA 
INCLUDING...ALL OF SUMTER...DILLON...LEE...KERSHAW AND MARLBORO 
COUNTIES AND THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF FLORENCE COUNTY...THE 
EASTERN HALF OF CHESTERFIELD...THE NORTHWEST HALF OF MARION AND THE 
NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF FLORENCE COUNTIES WHICH WERE NOT CONSIDERED 
TO BE IN DROUGHT.

...RIVER AND STREAM FLOW...

STREAM FLOW RECOVERED FROM LEVELS OF MARCH 13 WITH SELECTED RANKED 
GAGES REPORTING FLOW ON MARCH 19 2009 OF 84 PERCENT OF MEDIAN FLOW. 
THIS IS COMPARED TO ONLY 58 PERCENT OF MEDIAN FLOW BACK ON MARCH 13 
2009. ON MARCH 19 2009...OF ALL RANKED GAGES...47 PERCENT REPORTED 
FLOW IN THE 25 TO 74 PERCENT OF MEDIAN FLOW. 

OVER THE LAST 7 DAYS ENDING ON MARCH 18 2009...THE PEE DEE AND THE 
SAVANNAH RIVER BASIN HAD BELOW NORMAL FLOW WHILE THE EDISTO RIVER 
BASIN HAD FLOW COMPARABLE TO MODERATE DROUGHT. THE OTHER RIVER BASINS
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA HAD AN AVERAGE FLOW IN THE NORMAL OR
ABOVE RANGE.


DATA SOURCE...UNITED STATE GEOLOGICAL SURVEY.

...RESERVOIR LEVELS...

RESERVOIR LEVELS WERE MOSTLY HIGHER THAN LAST WEEKS LEVELS. HOWEVER 
BOTH LAKE THURMOND AND LAKE RUSSELL CONTINUE TO REPORT LEVELS WHICH 
ARE 2.8 AND 6.8 FEET BELOW NORMAL RESPECTIVELY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LAKE WATEREE HAS A LEVEL OF 0.4 FEET ABOVE THE TARGET LEVEL.

THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS THE RESERVOIR LEVEL CHANGE OVER THE PAST WEEK.

STATION          3/13/2009       3/19/2009     DIFFERENCE

LAKE THURMOND   321.04 FEET    321.53 FEET     PLUS 0.49 FEET

LAKE RUSSELL    472.21 FEET    471.87 FEET    MINUS 0.34 FEET


LAKE MURRAY     358.28 FEET    358.63 FEET     PLUS 0.35 FEET

LAKE GREENWOOD  438.56 FEET    438.63 FEET     PLUS 0.07 FEET

LAKE MARION      75.21 FEET     75.20 FEET    MINUS 0.01 FEET

LAKE WATEREE ROSE 0.84 FEET TO 97.40 FEET FROM 96.56 FEET REPORTED 
ON MARCH 13 2009 WHICH IS 0.4 FEET ABOVE THE 97 FOOT TARGET LEVEL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

DATA PROVIDED BY THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE UNITED
STATES ARMY CORP OF ENGINEERS AND DUKE ENERGY.

...CLIMATE OUTLOOK...

PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

CURRENT FORECAST OUT TO 7 DAYS...THE WEATHER WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH 
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN EXPECTED LATE NEXT WEEK.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM MARCH 24 2009 THROUGH MARCH 28 
2009 CALLS FOR A 33 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL 
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND 
THE SOUTH EAST QUARTER OF GEORGIA. THERE IS AN EQUAL CHANCE OF
ABOVE...BELOW OR NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AND THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST HALF OF GEORGIA AND A 33
PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
QUARTER OF GEORGIA.

THERE IS AN EQUAL CHANCE OF ABOVE...BELOW OR NORMAL TEMPERATURES 
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA EXCEPT FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH 
CAROLINA AND THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF GEORGIA WHERE THERE IS A 33 

PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM MARCH 26 2009 THROUGH APRIL 1 
2009 CALLS FOR A 33 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR ALL OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. THERE IS AN EQUAL CHANCE OF 
ABOVE...BELOW OR NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CAROLINA 
AND GEORGIA.

THE OUTLOOK FOR APRIL 2009 CALLS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW 
OR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THERE IS A 
33 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL OF 
SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA.

THE 3 MONTH OUTLOOK FOR APRIL...MAY AND JUNE OF 2009 CALLS FOR EQUAL 
CHANCES OF ABOVE...BELOW OR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION 
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA.

...SUMMARY...

WET WEATHER OVER THIS PAST WEEKEND HAS PUSHED FLOWS CLOSER TO NORMAL 
ACROSS THE AREA...DESPITE THE LONG TERM DROUGHT. ONE OF THE SHORT 
TERM OUTLOOK FAVORS COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BOTH THESE 
FACTORS FAVOR A HIGHER FLOOD POTENTIAL.

ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NEAR AND MID TERM OUTLOOK FAVORS DRIER THAN 
NORMAL PRECIPITATION. VEGETATION ACTIVITY ALSO HAS BEEN INCREASING 
WITH THE BEGINNING OF SPRING APPROACHING AND PRECIPITATION TOTALS
ARE RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL SO FAR THIS YEAR. ALL 3 OF THESE 
FACTORS FAVOR A LOWER FLOOD POTENTIAL.

WE ARE STILL IN THE PEAK RECHARGE PERIOD CLIMATOLOGICALLY...WITH 
RUNOFF EFFICIENCY STILL HIGH.

WEIGHING THESE FACTORS...FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN IN THE NORMAL 

RANGE FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.

THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK WILL BE 
ISSUED ON FRIDAY APRIL 3 2009.

...ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

DATA AND OTHER INFORMATION USED IN THIS STATEMENT CAME FROM THE 
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE U.S. ARMY CORP OF ENGINEERS...
THE UNITED STATES DROUGHT MONITOR...THE SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST
CENTER...DUKE ENERGY AND THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER.

MORE INFORMATION ON FLOODING CAN BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB 
ADDRESSES:

OTHER FLOODING INFORMATION:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/CAE UNDER RIVERS AND LAKES/AHPS ON THE LEFT MENU BAR


FLOOD OUTLOOKS:
WWW.HPC.NOAA.GOV/NATIONALFLOODOUTLOOK

FLOOD SAFETY:
WWW.FLOODSAFETY.NOAA.GOV

REMEMBER THAT FLASH FLOODING CAN OCCUR AS A RESULT OF SHORT TERM
HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS.


                   ...QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS OUTLOOK PLEASE 
CONTACT...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2909 AVIATION WAY
WEST COLUMBIA SC 29170
PHONE: 803-822-8135
INTERNET ADDRESS W-CAE.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV


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