Quarterly Spotter Reports
1. Dan Brown...............................Tattnall
Area Weather Statistics
CHS = Charleston International Airport
1998 Hurricane Season Forecast
Dr. William Gray, professor at Colorado State University, has issued his early April forecast of Atlantic Hurricane activity for 1998. He, along with several other scientists, predicts a near average season with no real indicators showing any deviation from the normal.
The forecast calls for the following: 10 named storms (average is 9.3), 50 days in which there are named tropical storms (average is 47), 6 hurricanes (average is 5.8), 20 hurricane days (average 24), and 2 intense storms, i.e. category 3-4-5 hurricanes (average 2.3). He summarizes all of the statistics by saying that the 1998 tropical cyclone activity is expected to be abut 95% of average (1950-1997). The first forecast was issued in December 1997, and this updated April prediction represents an increase of one hurricane and one tropical storm in the Atlantic Ocean. Updates are also issued at the start of the hurricane season which commences June 1st. Another update is provided during the first week of August. Hurricane season runs through November 30th.
The most active time for tropical systems occurs from late August through September, and the current El Niņo episode is forecast to weaken considerably by early summer 1998.
Dr. Gray and his team of scientists presently believe that the 1998 hurricane season will be more typical of the active hurricane years associated with fading El Niņos. They use past historical data to arrive at this forecast while including thirteen "predictors" in the forecast equation. These predictors include West African rainfall, surface pressure at specific points near the equator, upper level wind flow, and ocean surface sea surface temperatures.
For more details and information about how the forecast team prepares its hurricane predictions for the year, see the online report at:
Back to Storm Courier Main Page