Late Weekend Forecast - Updated
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Late Weekend Forecast - Updated
The graphics below depict the latest trends in the GFS and NAM computer model forecasts over the past 12 hours. A slight westward shift in the surface low position is evident in both model solutions as seen below. This suggests an increased chance for precipitation over eastern Pennsylvania (versus 12 hours ago) as this storm system lifts northeast along the Mid-Atlantic coast.

However despite the higher probability of precipitation, there is still a good deal of uncertainty with regard to whether the precipitation will fall as rain or snow across the Lower Susquehanna Valley. The main factor at play here is a weak low pressure area located over the lower Great Lakes. This feature will keep the coldest air further to the west over the Upper Mississippi Valley.

Given the current surface low track, a several-inch snowfall is a low probability event across eastern Pennsylvania - but still cannot be ruled out.

This page will be updated early tomorrow morning. Until then, stay tuned to the latest forecast products from the National Weather Service in State College.
Most current (as of 6 AM today) GFS model forecast of mean sea-level pressure valid at 12z (7 AM EST) on Monday January 14, 2008.
Most current (as of 6 AM today) GFS model forecast of mean sea-level pressure valid at 12z (7 AM EST) on Monday January 14, 2008.

GFS model forecast (initialized 12 hours ago) of mean sea-level pressure valid at 12z (7 AM EST) on Monday January 14, 2008.
GFS model forecast (initialized 12 hours ago) of mean sea-level pressure valid at 12z (7 AM EST) on Monday January 14, 2008.

Most current (as of 6 AM today) NAM model forecast of mean sea-level pressure valid at 12z (7 AM EST) on Monday January 14, 2008.
Most current (as of 6 AM today) NAM model forecast of mean sea-level pressure valid at 12z (7 AM EST) on Monday January 14, 2008.

NAM model forecast (initialized 12 hours ago) of mean sea-level pressure valid at 12z (7 AM EST) on Monday January 14, 2008.
NAM model forecast (initialized 12 hours ago) of mean sea-level pressure valid at 12z (7 AM EST) on Monday January 14, 2008.

HPC significant surface low track graphic shows the track of the coastal low pressure system from off the Carolina's Sunday to southeast of Cape Cod by early Monday.
HPC significant surface low track graphic shows the track of the coastal low pressure system from off the Carolina's Sunday to southeast of Cape Cod by early Monday.

HPC probability of reaching or exceeding 4
HPC probability of reaching or exceeding 4" of snow from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM Monday.


 
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NOAA National Weather Service
Central Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Office
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State College, Pennsylvania 16803
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Page Last Modified: 12 January 2008 20:59:34 UTC
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