000 FXUS61 KBOX 081505 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1005 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009 .SYNOPSIS... A MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS S OF THE REGION AND PRODUCES AN INCREASING W TO SW FLOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER WEATHER AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND MILDER WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... BEAUTIFUL NOVEMBER DAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPS. WEAK FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING IN. 2M TEMPS SUGGEST TEMPS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 60S...MILDEST CT AND INTERIOR RI/E MA. LLJ MOVES OFFSHORE SO EXPECT DIMINISHING WINDS OVER CAPE/ISLANDS AND SHIFT TO W/NW THIS AFTERNOON. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO VARY CONSIDERABLY FROM THE WARMER HIGH TERRAIN AND URBAN CENTERS TO THE COLDER OUTLYING SUBURBS. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD...BUT DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW SHARP RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS LOW LYING SECTIONS. MONDAY...BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH AND PROVIDES AN INCREASING SW FLOW. DECIDED TO GO A FEW DEGREES MILDER THAN MOS GUIDANCE AS VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES. THIS WOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES AWAY FROM RECORD HIGHS LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT EXPECTING RECORD HIGHS AT THIS TIME. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL OCEAN STORM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. 00Z GFS...ECMWF AND GGEM HAVE ALL LATCHED ONTO THE IDEA OF ENERGY FROM IDA MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPING INTO A SIGNIFICANT STORM. THE GGEM IS THE SLOWEST OF THIS CAMP TO DO SO...WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS THE QUICKEST. THE OPERATIONAL GFS LOOKS TO BE AN OUTLIER SOLUTION WITH ONLY 2 MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE SUPPORTING IT. THE 00Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION STILL SUPPORTS A DRY FORECAST. GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS...THOUGHT IT BEST TO AT LEAST MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO REFINE THIS FORECAST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THURSDAY TO NOT BE A MAJOR PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE END OF THIS WEEK LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH A HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... TODAY...VFR. TONIGHT...VFR. ISOLATED GROUND FOG ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. MONDAY...VFR. SCATTERED SW WIND GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON INLAND. OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS FORESEEN FOR LATE TUE AND TUE EVENING. THIS MAY BRING A BRIEF SHOT OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TUE NIGHT AND WED. SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. && .MARINE... TODAY...LEFTOVER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES UNTIL NOON FOR 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF BID-MVY. A FEW G25 KT ACK SOUND AND ADJACENT E WATERS WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS LLJ MOVES OFFSHORE. TONIGHT...WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT. SEAS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER AND REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. MONDAY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED. COULD BE SOME SCATTERED 25 GUSTS NEAR SHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FT. OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... GRADUALLY INCREASING SWLY FLOW WILL BE SEEN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MAINLY SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF AN OCEAN STORM DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONT...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF NOW HURRICANE IDA. THIS WOULD LEAD TO BUILDING SEAS AND STRONGER WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CANNOT YET IGNORE THIS POSSIBILITY... SO HAVE TRENDED WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY 11/9...FOR REFERENCE BOS 74 IN 1945 PVD 74 IN 1945 BDL 76 IN 1975 ORH 71 IN 1945 && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. MA...NONE. NH...NONE. RI...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ255-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BELK/STRAUSS NEAR TERM...KJC SHORT TERM...STRAUSS LONG TERM...BELK AVIATION...BELK/STRAUSS MARINE...KJC/BELK/STRAUSS CLIMATE...