000 FXUS61 KBUF 221528 AFDBUF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1128 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS NEW YORK TODAY TRIGGERING MORE SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THEN A RETURN TO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... A VERY POORLY DEFINED COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SLOW STORM MOTION AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER NEARING 1.5 INCHES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE GENESEE VALLEY EASTWARD TO THE FINGER LAKES. TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY AND SKIES WILL CLEAR SOME MORE. NAM AND GFS MOS INDICATING POSSIBILITY OF FOG SO CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE WEATHER GRIDS WITH PATCHY FOG MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. ANOTHER NIGHT OF MILD TEMPS WITH LOW FALLING ONLY TO THE UPPER TO MID 50S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LURKING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH WEAK RIDGE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. EXPECT THAT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE THE LOW RISK OF CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL END WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE RIDGE AND DRIER AIR BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP. LACK OF SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND DEEP SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING PEAK HEATING. MID SUMMER HEAT BUILDING WITH MOST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... ON FRIDAY MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TRANSPORTING EVEN WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH AREAS INLAND FROM THE LAKES PUSHING INTO THE MID OR UPPER 80S. FRIDAY NIGHT A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT SLOWLY EASING SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS MAY TOUCH OFF A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL JUST MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. BY SUNDAY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING WHAT REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AS A WARM FRONT. A FEW OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TRY TO DEVELOP A LITTLE PRECIP ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT. GIVEN THE VERY WEAK LOOK OF THE FRONT AND THE HIGH HEIGHTS ALOFT LIKELY LIMITING INSTABILITY...WILL OPT TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. FOR MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY THE NEW 12Z RUNS OF BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO PUMP THE RIDGE NORTHWARD...WITH 850MB TEMPS SOARING TO +18C. IF THIS WERE TO VERIFY...EXPECT ANOTHER HOT DAY TO ROUND OUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 85-90 DEGREE RANGE. AGAIN SOME MODEL GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION...BUT EXPECT STRONG CAPPING TO PREVENT ANYTHING ORGANIZED AND FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT DRY. && .AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING WITH JUST SOME MVFR CIGS AT KDKK AND IFR CIGS AT ELZ. SCATTERED SHRA CONTINUING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR ACROSS THE AREA. A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NY WILL TRIGGER SOME MORE SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES MAINLY FOR WESTERN NY. WITH MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE INTO TONIGHT...MOS AND LAMP GUIDANCE CONTINUE SHOWING POSS MVFR/IFR VIS/CIGS DEVELOPING TOWARD 23/06Z. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO SHOW A TREND DOWN TOWARD IFR NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. OUTLOOK... WEDNESDAY...AREAS OF IFR CIGS EARLY...OTHERWISE VFR. THURSDAY...VFR. FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS LATE. SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. && .MARINE... A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NEW YORK TODAY. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS EXCEPT IN THE VCNTY OF ANY PASSING THUNDERSHOWERS. A RELATIVELY WEAK WIND PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN A SOUTHERLY FLOW PICKS UP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WAVES LESS THAN 1 FT. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SMITH/WCH NEAR TERM...SMITH/WCH SHORT TERM...TMA LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK AVIATION...SMITH MARINE...SMITH/TMA