000 FXUS61 KOKX 040347 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1147 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2009 .SYNOPSIS... TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...THEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH FOR MONDAY. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE REGION IN THE NEW WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... JUST ABOUT ALL PRECIP HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION...AND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. UPDATED GRIDS AND TEXT FORECASTS TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS...ALTHOUGH ANY CHANGED WERE MINOR AS THE TIMING IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST WAS EXCELLENT. WARM MOIST CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO FOG FORMATION...BUT IT WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDANT ON WINDS. EXPECT PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY AWAY FROM NYC AND ESPECIALLY IN AREAS AWAY FROM NYC THAT GET RAIN/HEAVY RAIN. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... SFC HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. YET ANOTHER MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...NOT EXPECTING PRECIP. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES POPS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY...AND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...PLEASANT WX ON TAP FOR THE HOLIDAY. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE DEPARTS SAT NIGHT. LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TN VALLEY SAT NIGHT...AND WILL PASS SOUTH OF NYC/LONG ISLAND SUN AFTERNOON. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP. IF THE LOW TRACKS A BIT FURTHER NORTH...THEN MAYBE SOME SHOWERS WOULD DEVELOP SUN AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS ON SUN WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO SAT. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ON MON. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST...BRINGING US LOWER- END POPS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST OVERALL CHANCES OF RAIN RIGHT NOW LOOK LIKE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE MOVES IN BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. DRY WEATHER THEREFORE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TO START...THEN WARMING ABOVE NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT. && .AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... GENERALLY VFR TONIGHT...BUT WITH PATCHY FOG A POSSIBLE IMPACT TO OPERATIONS ACROSS CT/LI. NOT EXPECTING A FULL SEABREEZE AT JFK ON SATURDAY...BUT RATHER A BACKING FROM NW TO SW FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSTMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. && .MARINE... LOW PRES DEPARTS TONIGHT...THEN HIGH PRES BRIEFLY PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS ON SAT. PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN UP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE 20 KT GUSTS ON EASTERN OCEAN WATERS SAT AFTERNOON...BUT WILL GENERALLY EXPECT SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS INTO THE START OF THE NEW WEEK. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW SETS TO REACH 5 FT IN A LONGER PERIOD SWELL. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES IN THE REGION. && .HYDROLOGY... THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN NAS DECREASED THIS EVENING...WITH ANY FURTHER ACTIVITY PRODUCING LESS THAN 1/4 INCH OF PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SAT ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN FLOODING. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPS NEAR TERM...BS SHORT TERM...BS LONG TERM...JC AVIATION...BS MARINE...JC/MPS HYDROLOGY...MPS