000 FXUS61 KOKX 080547 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1247 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2009 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL LARGELY BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS OF MILDER WEATHER. THE NEXT CHANCE OF WET WEATHER WILL BE WITH A COLD FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... A WEAK TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SCT- BKN HIGH BASED CU TRACKING MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT MUCH ELSE. BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPS NEAR SEASONABLE (LOWER 40S). ACROSS INTERIOR VALLEYS THOUGH...DECOUPLING WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS...COMBINED WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WITH A DEVELOPING RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A MILD AND DRY START TO THE WEEK. 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WARM BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES CELSIUS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S AND PERHAPS LOW 70S IN SOME LOCALES. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SHOW A WARMING TREND EVEN WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT LOWS BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY MORNING TO RANGE IN THE 40S AND 50S...A SOLID 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND EASILY 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN OBSERVED SAT MORNING LOWS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY...WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A SLOWER TIMING TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. WILL KEEP THE FRONT TO OUR WEST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY TUE MORNING...AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS BY LATE IN THE DAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE GFS HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH BOTH THE 06Z/07 AND 12Z/07 RUNS DEVELOPING THE REMNANTS OF IDA INTO A COASTAL STORM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 12Z WED. THE 00Z/07 AND 12Z/07 GEM RUNS ALSO DEVELOP A COASTAL STORM...BUT THE HIGH OVER THE NE IS FURTHER N ON THE 12Z RUN WITH ITS SOLN SIMILAR TO THE GFS...BUT 12 HOURS LATER. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER PATTERN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AND HAS THE SUPPORT OF MANY OF THE ENS MEMBERS...THEREFORE HAVE STEERED AWAY FROM THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND GEM FOR NOW. COLD FROPA TUE EVE...WITH STRONG CAA AT NIGHT. WINDS COULD REMAIN GUSTY ON WED WITH TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THROUGH THU...THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THU NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR. THERE COULD BE A TOUCH OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR UNTIL DAYBREAK WITH SSW 20-30 KT LOW LEVEL JET JUST OFF THE DECK (WS006/20025KT)... BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAF DUE TO ITS MARGINAL NATURE. WINDS WILL SHIFT W-NW AND LIGHTEN BY ABOUT 14Z WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPS COULD INDUCE WEAK SEA BREEZES AT COASTAL TERMINALS...PERHAPS AN E-NE SOUND BREEZE AT KLGA. OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THU... 06Z MON-TUE...VFR. TUE NIGHT-WED...GUSTY NW-N WINDS. CHANCE OF SUB-VFR TUE NIGHT. THU...VFR WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK S OF THE AREA TONIGHT...PLACING THE AREA IN A ZONE OF INCREASED SW FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. A 30-35 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL PASS OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN OVERNIGHT. LINGERING 5-FT SEAS POSSIBLY HOLDING OVER INTO THE EARLY DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY. OCCASIONAL SCA GUSTS ACROSS REST OF THE WATERS. WINDS WILL SLACKEN ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA... WITH QUIET CONDITIONS THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS. SCA POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS TUE NIGHT IN STRONG CAA BEHIND FROPA...CONTINUING INTO WED NIGHT AS A TIGHT GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE AREA. && .HYDROLOGY... A CDFNT MAY BRING PCPN TO THE CWA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355. && $$ AVIATION...GOODMAN