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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCAR 302155
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
555 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...RAISED TEMPS DOWNEAST EARLY TONIGHT WHERE A FEW
SPOTS ARE CLOSE TO 60. ALSO, DECREASED CLOUD COVER IN CENTRAL
AREAS WHERE A CORRIDOR OF CLEAR SKIES HAS MOVED IN. 

A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
WILL BRING SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, THE AREA WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND
LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS. NORTHERN AREAS WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES DOWN FROM
THE NORTH. CLEARING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION INTO CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE
NORTH MOSTLY SUNNY AND DOWNEAST REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY. ON
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WHILE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
KEEPING DOWNEAST AREAS MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE NORTH, HOWEVER, WILL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
LABRADOR AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL 
MOVE OFF LONG ISLAND AND THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA 
SCOTIA. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED INTO SOUTHERN 
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. AS SUCH, EXPECT NORTHERN AREAS OF OUR FORECAST 
AREA WILL SEE FEWER CLOUDS WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE 
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT, EXTREME DOWNEAST 
MAINE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, 
THE WEATHER SHOULD STAY DRY IN SPITE OF ANY CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES 
WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. 
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VARIABLE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OWING TO THE 
CLOUD COVER. THE NORTH WILL SEE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S, WHILE 
SOUTHERN REGIONS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORE OF A REX TYPE BLOCKING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAKDOWN
AND MOVE EAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND COLD
FRONT THAT WILL ALSO PROGRESS EAST. DUE TO THE BLOCKING MODELS
HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOW THIS SYSTEM DOWN IN TERMS OF OF QUICKNESS
OF PRECIP GETTING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MEAN THAT THE BULK OF
THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BACK FURTHER ON
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN. AFTER THIS THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES IN THE
GUIDANCE AS TO THE DEEPNESS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH THEN WILL
TRANSLATE TO DISCREPANCIES IN THE QUICKNESS OF THE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OF THE FA. THAT SAID THINKING WILL SLOW PROGRESSION IN AND
OUT OF THE AREA. ESPECIALLY WITH GFS CONTINUING TO SLOW SYSTEM
DOWN FROM RUN TO RUN AND ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING
THIS SLOWER SOLUTION. AFTER THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
EAST COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BRINGING MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE ARE
STILL QUESTIONS ON HOW NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES SO WILL STAY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTH
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY AND IMPROVE TO MVFR
DOWNEAST DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. 

SHORT TERM: VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, ESPECIALLY AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. FURTHER SOUTH, MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FOG
LATE EACH NIGHT/EARLY EACH MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A FEW WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KT ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A STORM SYSTEM OFF NOVA SCOTIA.
OTHERWISE, NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 


SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF
THE WATERS. WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AND WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET
LOOK LIKELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...BLOOMER/HASTINGS
MARINE...BLOOMER/HASTINGS







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