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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCAR 230133
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
933 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY
AND CROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OFF THE COAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
933 PM UPDATE...WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT IS ORGANIZING ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY PASSING SOUTH OF JAMES BAY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS TO LABRADOR WED PM. THE ONLY
CONCERN IS FOR AN AREA OF LOWER STRATUS OFFSHORE THAT EXTENDS TO
YARMOUTH THAT MAY GRAZE PARTS OF THE WASHINGTON AND PERHAPS
EASTERN HANCOCK COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO
THE HOURLY TEMPS AND WIND GRIDS WERE MADE BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS
AND SAT IMAGERY. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS
UPDATE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE DAY TOMORROW WITH THE RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM NGT IS XPCTD ACROSS THE FA TNGT...WITH HIGHER DWPTS AND A
LITTLE MORE OF SW BREEZE KEEPING OVRNGT LOW TEMPS AT LEAST 5 DEG F
WARMER THAN LAST NGT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MCLR...WITH THE POSSIBLE
XCPTN OF THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS GRAZING
THIS PTN OF THE FA WITH OCEAN ST LATE TNGT INTO ERLY WED
MORN...AND PERHAPS EVEN PATCHY FOG.

OTHERWISE...AFT A WARM...HUMID AND SUNNY START FOR MOST OF THE FA
WED MRNG...CLDS AND TSTMS CHCS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW BEGINNING
ERLY WED AFTN OVR NW ME AND ADVCNG SEWRD ACROSS THE REGION TO SE ME
ERLY WED EVE AS A FAST MOVG S/WV AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
APCHS FROM CNTRL QB. MAX MLCAPE (SBCAPE) OF 1500J/KG (2500J/KG)
SETTING UP ON AN AXIS FROM CARIBOU TO NEAR GREENVILLE AT ARND 18Z
WILL MAINTAIN THIS VALUE TO ABOUT A HOULTON TO BANGOR LINE AT ARND
22Z BEFORE DIMINISHING BY MARINE INFLUENCED AIR DUE TO SRLY
COMPONENT LLVL WINDS. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT WITH MOST OF
THIS SHEAR IN THE 0-3KM LAYER SUGGESTS THE MAIN MODE OF CNVCTN
WILL BE LN SEGMENTS... ALTHOUGH INITIAL CNVCTN MAY BEGIN AS
DISCRETE CELL DEVELOPMENT THAT COULD ATTAIN BRIEF SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES.

IF THE FASTER 12Z GFS AND CANGEM SOLUTIONS ARE CORRECT WITH THE
WED AFTN PSN OF THE COLD FRONT...CNVCTV INITIATION AND LN
CONSOLIDATION MAY HOLD OFF AS LATE AS A CARIBOU TO GREENVILLE AXIS
OR EVEN A LITTLE FURTHER SE...BUT OTHER MODELS ARE A LITTLE SLOWER
WITH THE COLD FRONT...SO FOR NOW WE KEEP THE POTENTIAL OF STRONG
TO SVR TSTMS ACTIVE FOR ALL OF THE FA...BUT WE DID SPEED UP THE LN
PROGRESSION THRU THE FA AN HR OR TWO FROM THE PREV FCST UPDATE.
GIVEN THE ANTICIPATION OF A LINEAR CNVCTV MODE...DAMAGING WINDS IS
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH BOWING LN SEGMENTS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND AN
ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO SECONDARY CONCERNS. BASED ON MODEL
CONSENSUS EVENT BASIN AVG QPF OF A HLF INCH...WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS LATER WED AFTN...UPWARDS TO A MAX OF 90 PERCENT...THINKING
THAT A FEW LCTNS COULD FALL BETWEEN TSTM LN SEGMENTS WITHOUT
MEASURE ABLE RNFL. WE BELIEVE MORE IN THE WAY OF THE FORWARD MOVING
CORFIDI VECTOR (TOWARD THE ESE AT 30 TO 50 MPH) MOTION CAN BE XPCTD
WITH INITIAL CELLS AND SUBSEQUENT LN DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE LN/LN
SEGMENTS POSSIBLY ACCELERATING LATE IN THE AFTN WITH THE ADVENT
OF COLD POOL DYNAMICS.

HI TEMPS WED WILL BE TRICKY...WITH THE AIR MASS PROGGED TO BE A
COUPLE OF DEG WARMER WED AFTN AT 925MB THAN THIS AFTN...SO ARRIVAL
TMG OF CLDNSS...SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE. FOR NOW...
WE KEPT HI TEMPS SIMILAR TO PREV FCST FOR THIS PD...THINKING THAT
FROM WARMER OVRNGT LOWS AND BETTER LLVL MORN MIXING WILL RESULT IN
A FAST MRNG TO MIDDAY RISE OF TEMPS UNDER MSLY SUNNY SKIES FROM
NE ME TO THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS SWRD TO N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
FASTER ARRIVAL OF CLDNSS OVR NW ME WILL LIKELY CAP HI TEMPS THERE
BY MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION AS SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH. SOME OF THE STORMS DOWNEAST MAY
STILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL EARLY IN THE EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND STALL ON THURSDAY WITH
SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE COAST ON THURSDAY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. MOISTURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA WILL THEN BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD THE TROUGH WILL PULL MOISTURE
AND HUMIDITY NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SUNDAY
WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM EACH DAY.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH TRACKS INTO EASTERN CANADA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE LOW EXTENDING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA MAY CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MSLY VFR. XCPTNS WILL POSSIBLY BE KBHB VERY LATE
TNGT/ERLY WED MORN WHEN LOW OCEAN ST/PATCHY FOG COULD AFFECT
THE AIRFIELD WITH MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS. MVFR/IFR
CLDS/VSBYS IN TSTMS/HEAVIER SHWRS AT ANY TAF SITE WED AFTN INTO
WED EVE. STRONG AND ERRATIC SFC WIND GUSTS TO 50+ KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS WITH TOPS OVER 40 K FT AGL. 

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR, ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND DOWNEAST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO MVFR SATURDAY NIGHT IN LOWER CLOUDS AND THEN BE VFR TO
MVFR ON SUNDAY IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD THRU WED...WITH SRLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KT BUILDING WVS SLOWLY TO NEAR SCA CRITERIA LATE IN THE DAY WED.
OTHERWISE...ST AND AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
WATERS FROM THE OPEN GULF OF ME LATE TNGT THRU WED AS MOIST TROP
AIR GLIDES OVR COLD SSTS. LASTLY...A FEW STRONG TSTMS CAPABLE OF
SPECIAL MARINE WRNGS COULD MOVE OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND LATE
WED AFTN INTO EVE. OBSVD WV HTS CONT TO BE SIG LESS THAN WW3 FCST
WV HTS...SO WE CONTD THE TREND OF ONLY GOING WITH 65 TO 75 PERCENT
OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH FRIDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY
REACHING SCA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/VJN/BLOOMER








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