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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCAR 222216
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
616 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL INTENSIFY AS IT
SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS ESPECIALLY CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER LOW
CROSSING THE REGION FROM CENTRAL CANADA ON SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE...MADE SOME SUBTLE CHANGES TO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.
ALSO, RAISED TEMPS AND LOWERED DEW POINTS A BIT OVER THE NORTH
EARLY TONIGHT WHERE THE AIR IS STILL DRY. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR
CHANGES THIS HOUR. 

MAIN CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAIN 
POTENTIAL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

A 1004 MB LOW CURRENTLY LIES JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS 
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, GRADUALLY 
DEEPENING AS IT DOES SO. BANDS OF RAIN SPINNING AROUND THIS LOW 
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO MAINE THROUGH THE PERIOD; ONE IS 
CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER DOWNEAST MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING WEDGED JUST TO OUR NORTH, THE PRECIPITATION 
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING NORTHWARD PROGRESS. HOWEVER, EVEN 
NORTHERN MAINE WILL GET INTO THE ACT BY LATER TONIGHT, WITH SOME WET 
SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING IN OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE FAR 
NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD STEADY RAIN WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE REGION 
FOR THE DAY THURSDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN ACROSS 
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. IN PARTICULAR, 
AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE EARLY 
THURSDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MOISTURE PLUME AND DEFORMATION BAND. 
THIS BAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, FOCUSING IN ON THE 
FAVORED EAST-FACING UPSLOPE REGIONS OF CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE. 
THEREFORE, THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS 
TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR MORE 
INFORMATION. 

THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD IS GUSTY WINDS. A 50-55KT 
JET WILL SET UP OVER COASTAL MAINE AT 925 MB LATER TODAY AND REMAIN 
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE EVENTUALLY LIFTING OUT THURSDAY 
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS JET COULD WELL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE, 
ESPECIALLY IN ANY HEAVIER RAIN BANDS, RESULTING IN GUSTS OF 40-45 
MPH. HAVE THEREFORE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO REMAIN FOR COASTAL 
HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SLOWLY LIFTING THE DEFORMATION
RN BAND FROM DOWNEAST THRU ALL OF NRN PTNS OF THE FA THU NGT THRU
FRI...SUBSEQUENTLY WE WENT WITH HIGHER 6 HRLY RNFL TOTALS WITH
THE BAND TRAVERSING ACROSS THE N...PARTICULARLY ON FRI. THIS
RESULTED IN A NET INCREASE OF A HLF INCH OF STM TOTAL RNFL OVR
THIS PTN OF THE FA COMPARED TO YSTDY'S AFTN UPDATE. FOR NOW...WE
DID NOT GO QUITE AS HEAVY AS TDY'S 12Z OPNL GFS MODEL IMPLIES...
WHICH APPEARS OVERZEALOUS WHEN COMPARING TO 09Z SREF...12Z GFS ESM
AND WPC FCSTS...SO WE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO
MODEL CAMPS. OTHERWISE...RN WILL TAPER TO SHWRS FROM S TO N
ACROSS THE FA FRI AFTN INTO FRI NGT. SAT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS
WHAT'S LEFT OF THE LLVL MOISTURE FIELD WITH THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AFFECTS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVG
FOR DYTM HIGHS AND ABV AVG FOR NGT LOWS AS WOULD BE XPCTD WITH A
MARITIME REDUCED DIURNAL/NOCTURNAL TEMP RANGE REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH LITTLE OR NO BREAK BETWEEN SYSTEMS...ANOTHER STRONG S/WV FROM
CNTRL CAN WILL TAKE OVR WHERE THE MID ATLC UPPER LOW LEAVES OFF
SAT NGT. UNLIKE THIS CURRENT SYSTEM...THIS NEW SYSTEM FROM CNTRL
CAN WILL NOT HAVE AS MUCH ATLC MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO 6 HRLY
QPFS WILL BE LIGHTER SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...THE TM THE DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW WILL TAKE TO CROSS OUR FA. HIGHEST POPS...IN THE LIKELY
RANGE ARE WEIGHTED ACROSS THE N SAT NGT INTO SUN MORN. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ALSO IMPORT COLDER AIR ALF OVR THE REGION SPCLY SUN NGT AND
ERLY MON MORN WHEN THE UPPER LOW IS DEPARTING...MEANING RN SHWRS
COULD MIX WITH OR CHG TO WET SN SHWRS MSLY OVR NRN HIER TRRN LCTNS
AT THIS TM BEFORE COMPLETELY ENDING BY MON AFTN. BOTH HI TEMPS AND
LOW TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER SUN THRU MON.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN IMPROVING MON AFTN...WITH CLRG SKIES MON
NGT. UNDER PTLY TO MSLY SUNNY SKIES...HI TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER ON
TUE. AFTWRDS...THE 12Z OPNL GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DVRGNG WITH THEIR
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TMG OF THE NEXT S/WV AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM APCHG FROM THE GREAT LKS DURING THE MID WEEK...WITH THE
ECMWF BEING ABT 12 TO 24 HRS SLOWER. CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND POPS
SUGGEST CHC SHWR POPS FOR WED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HI REGARDING
THIS TMG. LOWS TEMPS TUE NGT AND HI TEMPS WED SHOULD BE MILD...BUT
NOT LOOKING AS WARM AS IT DID FOR THESE DAYS AS COMPARED TO YSTDY'S
GUIDANCE ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY WORSEN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER,
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF KBGR AND KBHB HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
DROPPING TO IFR CONDITIONS, MAINLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AT THESE TWO
LOCATIONS, WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT POSSIBLE.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: IFR CLG AND RN/SHWR CONDITIONS XPCTD ACROSS
THE REGION FRI...IMPROVING TO MVFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES FRI NGT AND
THEN ALL SITES ON SAT. MVFR CONDITIONS CONT ON SUN...WITH POSSIBLE
IFR OVR NRN TAF SITES SUN NGT. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON MON TO VFR
DOWNEAST SITES AND MVFR NRN TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING WELL INTO
THE 40-45 KT RANGE. SEAS ARE GENERALLY HAVE BEEN 11 TO 13 FT, WITH
SOME SWELLS REACHING NEARLY 14 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

COASTAL FLOODING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PRIMARY WAVE DIRECTION. ALSO, THE HIGH TIDES ARE NOT THE HIGHEST
OF THE LUNAR MONTH. A CALL TO BOTH HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES REVEALED NO OVERWASH PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION,
OUR LOCAL WAVE RUNUP MODEL DOES NOT INDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE
ANY SPLASH OVER. HOWEVER, LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON WIND AND WAVE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: THE GLW THAT BEGINS ERLY IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED BY A TRANSITIONAL SCA FOR WINDS AND SPCLY
WVS...SPCLY FOR OUTER WATERS THU NGT INTO FRI...WITH ALL WATERS
BLO SCA CRITERIA BY FRI NGT. WINDS AND WVS WILL REMAIN BLO OR NEAR
MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS SAT THRU MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST MAINE, THIS WILL BE A MULTI-DAY
ACCUMULATION. MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE CURRENTLY NEAR NORMAL FLOWS, AND
ALL OF THE THE NERFC'S ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THESE WATERWAYS
BELOW FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE EVENT. HOWEVER, SMALL STREAMS COULD
VERY WELL REACH BANKFULL. ALSO, AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD
EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY SINCE STORM DRAINS WILL
LIKELY BE CLOGGED BY LEAVES AND OTHER DEBRIS. THEREFORE, THE FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CONTINUED FOR HANCOCK, WASHINGTON, AND CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR 
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...VJN 
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN 
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN 
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS






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