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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCAR 010536
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1236 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A NEW
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND TRACK SOUTH OF
THE STATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE 0030 EST: TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
ACROSS NORTHERN AND DOWNEAST MAINE WITH A FEW LOCATIONS BELOW
ZERO. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE MINUS
TEENS. CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.   

UPDATE 2125 EST: HAVE CANCELED WINTER STORM WARNINGS AS SYSTEM IS
NOW MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER NEW JERSEY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE
MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE... WINDS AND DEW
POINT BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

LOW PRESSURE OVER NOVA SCOTIA WHICH HAS BEEN BRINGING SNOW TO
EASTERN AREAS MUCH OF TODAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER EASTERN AREAS
EARLY TONIGHT. A STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING. WINTER
STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EASTERN AREAS THIS EVENING MAINLY FOR
IMPACTS DUE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING. BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR
COMBINED WITH THE WIND WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S AND
30S BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER STORM LOOKS TO BE ON THE HORIZON THIS TERM.

THE LATEST SUITE OF 12Z GUIDANCE SHIFTED THINGS FURTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUS SET. THE LATEST CONSENSUS IS FOR LOW PRES TO SLIDE OFF
THE DELMARVA ON MONDAY AND INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NNE TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THIS
STORM LOOKS TO BE QUICK HITTER AS THE UPPER TROF LOOKS TO REMAIN
OPEN.

SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS ON MONDAY. ATTM, DECIDED TO CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN AND DOWNEAST AREAS W/70-90% AND DROPPED POPS BACK TO
CHANCE AS ONE TRAVELS FURTHER WEST. STRONG DEFORMATION BANDING
LOOKS TO BE IN ORDER DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AND
COASTAL AREAS AND THEN THIS BANDING COULD SHIFT NE MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW LIFTS NE. THE HEAVIEST QPF/SNOWFALL ATTM IS EXPECTED
ACROSS DOWNEAST AND EASTERN AREAS W/RATIOS AT LEAST 20:1 AND
POSSIBLY HIGHER IF THE EXPECTED TREND CONTINUES. THIS WOULD MEAN
AT LEAST 10+ INCHES OF SNOW IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OVER 24
HRS BUT SINCE WE HAVE DOUBLE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IN PLACE
ATTM AND THIS EVENT IS IN THE 4TH PERIOD, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON
ANY WINTER STORM WATCHES AND NOT CONFUSE THINGS. THIS WAS
COLLABORATED W/GYX THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF
THIS STORM IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND THE LATER SHIFTS
CAN ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATER GUIDANCE.

THE STORM IS FORECAST TO WIND DOWN ON TUESDAY W/ANOTHER ROUND OF
NNW WINDS AND MORE ARCTIC AIR POURING INTO THE REGION. WE COULD
BE LOOKING AT WIND CHILL HEADLINES AFTER THIS NEXT EVENT. DECIDED
TO STAY CLOSE W/THE MIDNIGHT CREW'S ASSESSMENT OF THIS NEXT COLD
SHOT W/MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST
AND DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY LUCKY TO CLIMB OUT OF THE SINGLE
NUMBERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE BANGOR-CALAIS REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS.

A TRANSIENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SPEEDS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS POSSIBLE...THERE'S SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE AND HOW FAST THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. WILL TAKE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH TO LOWS WITH MINUS 5 TO MINUS 10 NORTH AND STAY IN THE
ZERO TO MINUS 5 FOR DOWN EAST AND BANGOR. THE SITUATION FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY INVOLVES A CLIPPER SYSTEM ARRIVING IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM. OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOW APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET
FOR WEDNESDAY WITH DECENT SNOW RATIOS. THE DISCREPANCY IN GUIDANCE
ARISES BETWEEN WHETHER THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND THE SURFACE
DEEPENS AS IT APPROACHES MAINE...OR IF AN OPEN WAVE SIMPLY MOVES
RAPIDLY THROUGH THE AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ARCTIC AIR. WILL
LEAN TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS OF THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS
AND ADD CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR LIKELY POPS IN PARTS OF WASHINGTON
AND HANCOCK COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY APPEAR LIKELY
TO OCCUR FIRST THING IN THE MORNING WITH READINGS FALLING THROUGH
THE DAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON ON
THURSDAY NIGHT IF WINDS DECREASE AND BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING CAN
OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO CLIMB OUT THE DEEP SUBZERO
HOLE ON FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY SINGLE DIGITS AS HIGHS. THE SECOND
CLIPPER APPEARS TO BE SET FOR SATURDAY. AGAIN...ECMWF IS
INDICATING A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM WITH ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH
SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL LIMIT VISIBILITIES AT TIMES ON SOME OF THE
AIR FIELDS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR BY
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS KBGR AND KBHB AND THEN THEY WILL SEE IFR
AND POTENTIALLY LIFR W/SNOW AND WIND. FURTHER NORTH, MVFR EXPECTED
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN DROPPING OFF TO IFR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS BY MONDAY EVENING W/SNOW AND WINDS.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY TUESDAY BUT NNW WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR SOME TURBULENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: UPDATE 2125 EST: HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS HIGHER.

A GALE WILL BE UP FOR WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KT THROUGH
THIS EVENING, AND A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY WILL BE UP THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. 

SHORT TERM: POTENTIAL FOR A GALE WATCH LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE W/THE
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY AS NNW INCREASE TO SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35
KTS. THOSE GALES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY DURING
THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND HIGH PRES RIDGES
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING 
     FOR MEZ011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...OKULSKI
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...OKULSKI/
MARINE...OKULSKI/



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