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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCAR 310451
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1251 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1250 AM UPDATE...TEMPERATURES WERE THE BIG CHALLENGE FOR
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS
THE NORTH, AND HAVE EVEN SEEN SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MAINE. HAVE THEREFORE UPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT IN THESE
AREAS, AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUDS WILL NOT DISSIPATE COMPLETELY.
HOWEVER, SHOULD CLEARING OCCUR, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP
QUICKLY AS DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CHALLENGE THIS TERM WILL BE CLOUDS AND TEMPS AND THEN
EYES TURN THE UPCOMING STORM AS DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION. 

CLOUDS HANGING AROUND A BIT LONGER IN THE EVENING PER THE
NAM12/RAP SOUNDINGS AS MOISTURE HOLDING IN FROM 900-800MBS. THE
COLUMN LOOKS TO DRY OUT LATER ON TONIGHT W/CLEARING AFTER, BUT
CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT W/THE PARTIAL CLEARING AND WIND BECOMING LIGHT, THIS
WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING DROPPING BELOW
32F ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST SECTIONS. ATTM, IT
LOOKS AS THOUGH THE COAST WILL HOLD UP A BIT INTO THE MID 30S. 

FOR FRIDAY, THE THICKEST CLOUD COVER WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND
WEST AS DISCUSSED ABOVE. THIS WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S WHILE MORE SUN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
AREAS WILL ALLOW FOR UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE COASTAL STORM TO IMPACT
THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND....

CLOUDS THICKEN UP FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES TO THE
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF
LONG WAVE TROUGH. AT THIS POINT SYSTEM LOOKS TO OCCUR IN TWO
PHASES....INITIAL SHOT OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BREAK OUT LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO NORTHERN PIECE OF
ENERGY. IF PRECIP COMES IN EARLY ENOUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY, THERE COULD BE A BIT OF SNOW AT THE ONSET BEFORE
A CHANGE TO MAINLY RAIN OCCURS SATURDAY DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING. LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECT
PRECIP TO PICK UP, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS AS
LOW DRAWS CLOSER. THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST
MODELS WITH THE GFS NOW THE OUTLIER AS IT IS FARTHER WEST THAN
THE ECMWF AND GEM GLOBAL. TRENDED TOWARD THE GEM/ECMWF WITH THIS
UPDATE WHICH TRACK THE LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA COMPARED TO THE GFS
WHICH TAKES THE LOW INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY. THIS SOLUTION RESULTS
IN A TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURRING SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS COLDER AIR IS DRAWN INTO THE STORM FROM THE NORTH.
THE ONLY AREA THAT MAY HANG ON TO A MIX OR RAIN WOULD BE RIGHT
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IT IS STILL EARLY TO BE CONFIDENT ON
SNOW ACCUMULATION HOWEVER PLOWABLE AMOUNTS APPEAR LIKELY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS BY SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY INTERIOR WASHINGTON AND
HANCOCK COUNTIES. WITH THIS MORE EASTERN TRACK, AMOUNTS TAPER
HEADING FARTHER WEST IN THE FORECAST AREA. DUE TO THE CONSENSUS
TAKING THE STORM FARTHER EAST AND THE CONCERN ABOUT JUST HOW FAST
TEMPERATURES COOL AS PRECIP MOVES IN, WILL HOLD OFF ON WATCH AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER A MORE WESTERN TRACK CAN STILL NOT BE RULED
OUT. THE OTHER FACTOR THAT NEEDS TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IS THE WINDS
WHICH WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH BY SUNDAY AS THE
LOW INTENSITIES IN RESPONSE TO MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING
NORTH.

FOR SUNDAY, EXPECT ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP TO MOVE IN ASSOCIATED
WITH PRIMARY SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND RAPIDLY DEEPENING SFC LOW
LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AT THIS TIME EXPECT PRECIP IN
THE FORM OF SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO BE FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER
EXTREME EASTERN AREAS, ESPECIALLY WASHINGTON COUNTY, WITH
ADDITIONAL WIND DRIVEN SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE THE
BIG STORY WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES...INCREASED WINDS WITH THIS UPDATE AND HAVE GUSTS OF
25 TO 35 MPH FOR SUNDAY WHICH MAY EVEN BE CONSERVATIVE. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDY AND COLD CONDITIONS
CONTINUING FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE HEADING INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKING FARTHER WEST
DURING THIS TIME AND LIKELY BRINGING MAINLY JUST SOME RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR AND
EVENTUALY IFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS RAIN AND SNOW MOVE IN
ALONG WITH LOW STRATUS. SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY LINGER INTO
SUNDAY ALONG WITH VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES. WINDS 10-15 KTS WILL DROP BACK TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY W/SOME WEAK RIDGING MOVING OVER THE WATERS. SEAS ATTM
RUNNING 2-3FT AND EXPECTED TO HOLD THAT WAY INTO FRIDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: 
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. BY SUNDAY, STRONG GALE TO EVEN STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 10 FT. CONDITIONS
SUBSIDE HEADING INTO MONDAY BUT WILL STILL BE ABOVE SCA LEVELS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SO FAR THIS MONTH AT BANGOR IS
52.3 DEGREES...WHICH IS 4.8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IT HAS BEEN THE
WARMEST OCTOBER SINCE 1968.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/FITZSIMMONS
CLIMATE...



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