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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCAR 260224
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1024 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM CENTRAL CANADA OVERNIGHT
AND CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION ON MONDAY THEN MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE: THE TMG OF SHWRS WAS MOVED UP BY ABOUT AN HR BASED
ON LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT AND LATEST RADAR REF TRENDS. OTHERWISE...
FCST LOWS HAS TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD OVR E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA
BASED ON 9 PM OBSVD TEMPS ALREADY LOWER THAN THE PREV FCST LOWS BY
A COUPLE OF DEG. WITH THICKER CLD CVR XPCTD TO ARRIVE WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF SHWRS...WE BELIEVE TEMPS SHOULD LVL OFF LATE TNGT AND
MAYBE EVEN RISE A FEW DEG BY DAYBREAK...SO THE FCST LOWS ARE NOT
MUCH LOWER THAN RECENTLY OBSVD...AND POSTED AT 2 AM.

ORGNL DISC: A COLD CORE LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK EAST INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL BE
SOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND AS IT CONTINUES TO FILL AND SLOWLY MOVE TO
THE EAST. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER MAINE...AS A
NEW LOW WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM HUDSON BAY TO
JAMES BAY. THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM ALL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
MINOR DIFFERENCE IN POSITION AND CENTRAL PRESSURE. AROUND MIDNIGHT
THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO WRN MAINE. THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH TO SRN
QUEBEC. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE LOW WILL BE OVER WRN MAINE...AND BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LOW WILL BECOME CUT OFF BY THE
JET...AND BEGIN TO BECOME COLD CORE.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED HPCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE DOMINANCE
OF A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS
WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOWER 40S FOR BANGOR
AND DOWN EAST.. THE STRENGTH OF A LOBE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW WILL BEAR WATCHING AS THERE IS SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE CROWN OF MAINE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS
TIME...THIS DISTURBANCE DOES NOT APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH AND BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO WARM FOR SNOW SHOWERS. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...MOSTLY TOWARDS THE ALLAGASH.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH WHILE BANGOR AND DOWN
EAST SHOULD SEE READINGS IN THE LOW 50S. CLEARING WILL MOVE VERY
SLOWLY INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...FINALLY REACHING THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THE CLEARING COULD
PRODUCE SOME CHILLY TUESDAY MORNING READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S IN
THE ALLAGASH AND PARTS OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY. A NARROW RIDGE
BUILDS TUESDAY BUT RESIDUAL STRATOCUMULUS AND WARM FRONTAL
CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY TO PREVENT MUCH SUNSHINE. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT WARM FRONTAL CLOUDINESS TO CONTINUE WITH
RAIN BREAKING OUT LATER IN THE NIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS MOST
LIKELY TOWARDS AROOSTOOK COUNTY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND RELATIVELY
MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F. THE FRONT WILL
EXIT THE AREA BY EVENING. A SECONDARY...BUT DRY COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THURSDAY. COLD AIR WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. UNCERTAINTY
BUILDS TOWARDS NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE. AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF SEEMS DESTINED
TO FORM IN THE EASTERN US...BUT WHETHER IS FORMS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN US OR EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS IN QUESTION. THE
AIR ALOFT COULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW...OR A MIX.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS FOR FVE...CAR...PQI...AND HUL. IN WRAP AROUND PCPN
EARLY...A BRIEF PERIOD THIS EVENING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR
BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS FOR BGR AND BHB THIS EVENING BECOMING MVFR AROUND
MIDNIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND THE AREA...HOWEVER
PCPN SHOULD MAINLY BE ACROSS N AND CNTRL MAINE THROUGH THE MORNING
HRS.

SHORT TERM: ALL SITES WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR SUNDAY NIGHT. BGR AND
BHB WILL BECOME VFR MONDAY MORNING...BUT SITES NORTH OF HUL REMAIN
MVFR INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
AT ALL SITES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR RETURNS FOR
ALL SITES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD AFTER MIDNIGHT AN SCA IS IN EFFECT FROM 8AM
TOMORROW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. 

SHORT TERM: AN SCA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
A NEW SCA IS POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR 
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW








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