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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCAR 172010
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
410 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN IN
THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. 
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL AMPLIFY...SHARPEN AND DEVELOP A
NEGATIVE TILT THIS EVENING. CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF MAINE ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THIS COLD UPPER TROUGH AND
THE LOW WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL EVOLVE INTO AN INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHING NORTH FROM THE LOW
TOWARDS THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY. ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL FLOW
NORTHWARD ALONG THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. SNOW WILL BE CONCENTRATED
ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE IN EASTERN MAINE...MOSTLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE THE CONVERGENCE ZONE MOVES EAST. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH WARNINGS ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER AND ADVISORIES
BUFFERING THE WARNINGS ON THE WESTERN SIDE. SNOWFALL RATES MAY
REACH AN INCH AN HOUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN EASTERN
MAINE AS THE DYNAMICS COME TOGETHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING BUT
WILL PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER MOST OF THE NIGHT. THERE IS
SOME CONCERN ABOUT EXTENDING ZONE 1 IN NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK ANOTHER
6 HOURS TO 8AM.

ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE INVERTED TROUGH...TEMPERATURES DROP OFF
VERY QUICKLY AND WINDS INCREASE DRAMATICALLY. THE WINDS ARE
PROBABLY THE BIG STORY WITH THIS STORM. HAVE RAMPED UP WINDS
CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW. GUSTS
OF 45 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS
OFFSHORE. THIS WILL CAUSE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW...AS WELL AS SOME WHITEOUT CONDITIONS STARTING THIS
EVENING...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW IS ANTICIPATED. THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ALL DAY WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS REACHING THE 45 TO 50 MPH
RANGE IN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. THE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
ISSUES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW POWER OUTAGES CANNOT
BE RULED OUT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE UNUSUALLY COLD FOR MID MARCH
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
TO THE NORTHEAST. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE
HIGH WILL THEN CREST OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY THEN MOVE
TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE NAM...
GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. WILL POPULATE
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT WITH SUPER BLEND.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SFC HIPRES WL BE RELAXING
ITS GRIP ON THE AREA FRI NGT WITH MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUING TO
HINT AT SRN STREAM LOW TRYING TO WORK INTO GULF OF MAINE. NRN
STREAM SYSTEM DROPS DOWN FM QUEBEC ARND 12Z SAT. AS OF RIGHT NOW
IT APPEARS THAT GULF LOW WL BE SOUTH OF CWA TO PRECLUDE ANY
SENSIBLE WX WITH SYSTEM UNTIL CDFNT IS ABLE TO DROP CLOSER TO NRN
MAINE BY DAYBREAK. THUS HV DELAYED CHC POPS TO JUST EXTRM WRN
ZONES BTWN 00Z-06Z SAT WITH CHC POPS OVERSPREADING AREA BY 12Z. WL
ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO PULL POPS THRU SAT MRNG IF CURRENT TRENDS
CONTINUE.

CDFNT PUSHES THRU MAINE ON SATURDAY WITH -SHSN EXPECTED ENTIRE AREA. 
DISCREPANCY RMNS AMONG MODELS ON HOW COLD AREA WL BE SUN MRNG WITH 
12Z GFS/EC APPCHG -15C AT H8 WHILE CMC MUCH COLDER AT -25C BY 12Z 
SUN. COLD TEMPS CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY 
EXPECTED TO BE SOME 15-20 DEGREES BLO NORMAL VALUES. THRU END OF 
LONG TERM CONTG TO LOOK AT BLO NORMAL TEMPS.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR TO LIFR THIS EVENING IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. THE
SNOW WILL END FOR BHB AND BGR LATE THIS EVENING...BUT WILL
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT NORTH OF HUL. BLOWING SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CAUSE TEMPO IFR NORTH OF PQI WEDNESDAY. GUSTS AT BGR AND BHB
COULD REACH 50 MPH THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE EXTENDED THE FREEZING SPRAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY
WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WIND FORECASTS. IN SPITE OF THE
COLD WATER TEMPERATURES...A FEW GUSTS COULD HIT 50 KTS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM:FOR SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE USED THE NAM12. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT OFF-SHORE WIND WAVE TO DOMINATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS A FUNCTION OF DISTANCE OFF-SHORE. WILL USE THE NEAR
SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WAVE HEIGHTS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF HIGHER
RESOLUTION NEAR COAST. WILL ALSO EXTEND GALE TO 0600Z THURSDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ002-006-
     017-030-032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001-
     003-004-010-015-016-029-031.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ005-
     011.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR 
     ANZ050>052.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR 
     ANZ050>052.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...FARRAR
AVIATION...MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...MCW/MIGNONE



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