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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCAR 022353
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
753 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS QUEBEC
PROVINCE ARE NOW WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. COULD
STILL HAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. COULD ALSO HAVE FOG MOVE
INLAND ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
50S NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE FCST AREA. WINDS MAY BE STRONGER/GUSTY TOMORROW
DUE TO STRONG MIXING IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN CREST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT THEN MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND
NAM WHICH BOTH PRESENT REASONABLE SOLUTIONS. THE SUPER BLEND
CONTINUES TO WORK WELL WITH TEMPERATURE SO WILL USE IT THIS PERIOD
FOR MAX/MIN.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
EXTENDED EAST WEST ACROSS CANADA NORTH OF THE RIDGE. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MAINE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE
RIDGE SLIPS TO THE SOUTH. EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED LOW AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL QUEBEC AND REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. A NEW LOW MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WED AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN
GREAT LAKE EARLY THURS...ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
NRN MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL BE ALONG THE WRN
ME/QUEBEC BORDER.

DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD USED A BLEND OF THE
MODELS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR WITH ANY ISOLATED SHOWER OR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING. VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD ALSO OCCUR
WITH ANY FOG ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST LATER TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE MULTI-MODEL APPROACH AND
BLEND THE GFS AND NAM. FOR WAVES: EXPECT NORTHEAST FETCH ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. NORTHEAST WIND WAVE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE EARLY FRIDAY
(2-3 FEET/5 SECONDS) BUT WILL BE LIMITED BY FETCH DISTANCE. WIND
WAVE WILL SUBSIDE LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM SATURDAY WILL BE
LONG PERIOD INCOMING SWELL (AROUND 2 FEET/10-11 SECONDS).
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/BERDES
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE



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