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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCAR 170857
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
457 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND STRENGTHEN IN
THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY. SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ROUNDING AN UPPER TROF WILL RESULT IN THE LOW INTENSIFYING AS IT
CROSSES AND THEN MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT.

EXPECT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AND
THE BECOME STEADIEST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR
EVEN CHANGE TO ALL RAIN FOR A WHILE TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR DOWN EAST MAINE, ESPECIALLY THE COAST AS SOME LOW LEVEL
WARMING OCCURS IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING LOW WITH 925 MB
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE TO NEAR FREEZING. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO INTENSIFY LATER TODAY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY APPROACHES
RESULTING IN THE UPPER TROF TAKING ON A NEGATIVELY TILTED
ORIENTATION. AN INVERTED TROF WILL EXTEND NORTHWEST ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION FROM THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
MOVING EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG UPPER
FORCING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE INVERTED SURFACE TROF WILL
RESULT IN A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW SETTING UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT. HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO WINTER
STORM WARNINGS FOR SOUTHEAST AROOSTOOK AND ALL OF WASHINGTON
COUNTY WHERE A SWATH OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. CANNOT
RULE OUT WARNING CRITERIA SNOW MAKING IT AS FAR NORTH AS ZONE 2
DEPENDING ON JUST WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIER SNOW SETS UP. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE TO A WARNING HERE QUITE YET BUT LATER
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES LATER TODAY AND
INTO THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT TO THE AXIS OF
THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL FROM EAST TO WEST WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
AGAIN ALONG THE MAINE/NB BORDER AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS FARTHER WEST.

AS THE SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES AND TRACKS EAST THIS EVENING
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE STRONG WITH GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AN HOUR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE
INCLUDED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW FOR TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FALL OVERNIGHT IN THE STRENGTHENING COLD
ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. EXPECT LOWS BY
MORNING TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NORTH AND AROUND
10 ABOVE DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP LOW PRES WILL WRAP UP ACROSS THE EASTERN MARITIMES WED INTO 
THU.  WED WILL BE A WINDY AND COLD DAY AND WILL HAVE MORE OF THE 
FEEL OF A MID WINTER DAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS 
THE CROWN OF MAINE WITH AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN 
AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.  A DECENT 
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES THURSDAY WILL MAKE FOR 
ANOTHER WINDY AND COLD DAY WITH TEMPS JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THOSE 
ON WED. IN FACT WED NIGHT...AS THE WIND CONTINUE TO BLOW...WIND
CHILLS COULD EVEN COME CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHICH IS NOT ALL THAT COMMON FOR THE
2ND HALF OF MARCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND CRESTS OVER THE AREA FRI 
MORNING. THE WIND WILL FINALLY SLACKEN OFF THU NIGHT AND TEMPS
WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDER NW
VALLEYS. DID GO BELOW EVEN THE COLDEST OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THU
NIGHT. SOME MODERATION IN THE AIR MASS FRI AS THE HIGH RETREATS
INTO THE ATLANTIC AND A MILDER SW FLOW ENSUES. THE FORECAST FOR
THE WEEKEND IS MORE UNCERTAIN. BOTH SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN BRANCH
LOWS APPROACH SATURDAY...BUT RIGHT NOW THE OPERATIONAL MODELS DO
NOT PHASE THE ENERGY AND KEEP THE MUCH DEEPER ATLANTIC LOW FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.
THE NORTHERN BRANCH LOW WOULD BRING ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD AND WINDY WEATHER FOR SUN INTO MON. THE
MAJORITY OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES KEEP THE ENERGY
SEPARATE...BUT THERE IS A MINORITY OF MEMBERS THAT PHASE THE
ENERGY AND WOULD HAVE A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM. FOR NOW WILL STICK
VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE CPC 8-14 DAY...CVSF2...AND
HEMISPHERIC MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD A COLDER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF MARCH. THE CFSV2 AND NMME
WOULD POINT TOWARD THIS PATTERN LASTING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS BY AFTERNOON WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR EXPECTED IN SNOW. EXPECT IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST INTO TONIGHT IN SNOW ESPECIALLY EASTERN TERMINALS.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT RESULTING IN BLOWING
SNOW MAINLY EASTERN TERMINALS. 

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATELY VFR WED THROUGH FRI...BUT POCKETS OF
MVFR FROM KHUL NORTH TO KFVE WED INTO WED EVENING IN SCT -SHSN. A
GUSTY SFC WIND WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES WED-THU. CONDITIONS
MAY LOWER TO MVFR IN -SN AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS SAT AND IN
-SN/-RA AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND THEN WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE LEVELS TONIGHT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN 1 NM AT TIMES IN
RAIN AND SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: THE CURRENT GALE WARNING THAT RUNS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL 
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO WED NIGHT...AND DOWN THE ROAD AND WILL
VERY LIKELY NEED TO BE TRANSITIONED INTO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
INTO THU. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TUE NIGHT THAT
EXTENDS THROUGH WED MORNING. 

&&


.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT 
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ002-005-011.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT 
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ001-003-004-010-031.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT 
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ006-017-030-032.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT 
     WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015-016-029.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO NOON EDT WEDNESDAY FOR 
     ANZ050>052.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR 
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB



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