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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCAR 220818
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
318 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT. A 
LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH TUESDAY NIGHT AND TRACK TO 
OUR WEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. 
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER DAY UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUDY
SKIES AND GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. A WEAK NORLUN TROUGH
IS STARTING TO ORGANIZE JUST WEST OF THE HANCOCK COUNTY
COAST...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THE OTHER SYNOPTIC SCALE CHANGE TODAY WILL BE THAT THE HIGH WILL
FINALLY MOVE EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS MEANS THAT A
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND ADVECT
ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE STATE. THIS MOISTURE WILL
CAUSE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN
PISCATAQUIS COUNTY THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY SPREAD TO FAR
NORTHERN PENOBSCOT LATER IN THE NIGHT. ANY ACCUMULATIONS IN
SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS SHOULD BE UNDER A HALF INCH. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RISE TO THE MID 20S NORTH AND LOWER 30S SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY FALL A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT UNDER THE CONTINUED CLOUD
COVER AND STAGNANT CONDITIONS. 
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE MARITIMES ON TUESDAY AS 
MOISTURE WELL AHEAD OF A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST 
BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION 
LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COLD 
ENOUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS FOR THE RAIN TO BEGIN AS 
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. MODELS SEEMS TO DIFFER ON HOW COLD THE 
SURFACE AIR WILL BE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NAM HAS A WEAK WAVE OF 
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST WHICH HOLDS COLD AIR ACROSS THE NORTH 
AND WOULD ALLOW FREEZING RAIN TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTH WELL INTO 
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE WAVE NEAR THE 
COAST ALLOWING WARM AIR TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD GIVE 
PREDOMINANTLY PLAIN RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH COLD AIR REMAINING NEAR 
THE SURFACE IN A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION, IT APPEARS AT LEAST A 
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TUESDAY 
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PLAIN RAIN 
ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS WARMER AIR PUSHES NORTH 
OVER THE AREA. 
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR WEST WILL BRING RAIN AND FOG WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING AS MUCH 
WIND AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS PREVIOUS MODELS WITH THE STORM TRACKING 
TO OUR WEST A LITTLE WEAKER, AND SOME SECONDARY REFLECTIONS OF LOW 
PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE COAST MODIFYING THE GRADIENT A BIT. HOWEVER, 
IF THE GFS IS RIGHT, COASTAL AREAS MAY HAVE A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS 
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES. RAIN SHOULD 
TAPER OFF TO A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL 
PASSAGE AND SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY FOLLOW THE FRONT LATE 
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW CONSOLIDATES TO OUR NORTH. DRY 
WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY MAY THEN BRING A 
FEW SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH, BEFORE USHERING IN A 
COLDER AIR MASS LATER SUNDAY. 
&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MOSTLY MVFR CIGS FROM HUL NORTHWARD. CIGS WILL
OCCASIONALLY DROP JUST BELOW 1000FT. TOWARDS BGR AND BHB...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MVFR CIGS COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS THIS
MORNING FOR BGR.

SHORT TERM:
IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN LOW 
CLOUDS, AND SOME RAIN, FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NORTH, AND FOG TUESDAY 
INTO WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE TO VFR DOWNEAST AND 
MVFR OVER THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR 
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON FRIDAY. SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS 
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET 
BRINGING STRONG SOUTH WINDS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE 
SURFACE. 
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM:
A GALE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR 
STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING TO OUR WEST. SEAS 
WILL BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, POSSIBLY UP TO
12- 15 FT IN RESPONSE TO A LONG FETCH. FOG WILL LIKELY LIMIT
VISIBILITIES AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS ACROSS THE WATERS. &&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER SCENARIO EXPECTED CHRISTMAS EVE(WEDNESDAY) INTO CHRISTMAS
DAY W/THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL W/LOW PRES FORECAST TO
PASS BY TO OUR WEST. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE ACROSS
EASTERN MAINE INCLUDING THE PENOBSCOT AND ST. CROIX BASINS W/1-2
INCHES OF RAINFALL. ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS, RAINFALL OF
1+ INCHES IS POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF MELTING SNOW, HEAVY
RAINFALL AND WINDS WILL LEAD TO SUBSTANTIAL RUNOFF AND RISES ON
THE RIVERS. ANY ICE WILL LIKELY MELT/BREAKUP AND MOVE. THE ICE JAM
ON THE AROOSTOOK RIVER IS A CONCERN AS IT COULD BREAK UP AND MOVE
W/THE ABOVE SCENARIO EXPECTED.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CONCERN OVER RELATIVELY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDE (PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDE) HIGH TIDE AT BAR HARBOR WILL OCCUR APPROXIMATELY 25TH/0530Z
(11.76 FT MLLW)... 25TH/1800Z (12.73 FT MLLW) AND 26/0624Z (11.80
FT). LATEST WAVE MODEL CONTINUES TO DEVELOP FETCH... ON 24TH TO
25... EXTENDING FROM COAST TO 600 NM TO SOUTH. LATEST WAVE MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 15 FEET AND
PERIODS RANGING FROM 9 TO 11 SECONDS DURING THESE HIGH TIDES.
WAVE HEIGHTS AND LONG PERIODS STILL SUFFICIENT FOR MINOR
OVERTOPPING ISSUES. ALSO WILL STRONG ONSHORE WINDS EXPECTED AND
ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL TIDE SOME FLOODING ISSUES STILL POSSIBLE.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...MCW/BLOOMER
MARINE...MCW/BLOOMER
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIGNONE



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