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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCAR 221025
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
625 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD TODAY RIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE 0625 EDT: BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAVE ADJUSTED POP...
WEATHER... WIND... TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT.

LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
AT THE SAME TIME STRONG HIGH PRESSURE (1034 MB) IS LOCATED TO THE
NORTH OF THE STATE. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
TO THE NORTH TODAY WHILE THE STRONG HIGH REMAINS STATIONARY. BANDS
OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE THEN MOVE ACROSS THE STATE WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE
COAST AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. THE SAME PATTERN WILL PERSIST TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FOR POPS...SKY CONDITIONS AND QPF WILL
BLEND THE NAM12...GFS40 AND ECMWF WHICH ALL HAVE SIMILAR
SOLUTIONS. THE NAM12 HAS BEEN USED FOR BOTH SUSTAINED WINDS....
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. WILL USE 125 PERCENT OF SUSTAINED WINDS
FOR GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS BELOW CRITERIA FOR ADVISORY...HOWEVER DUE
TO SOFT SOIL WILL KEEP ADVISORY BASED ON IMPACT FOR POSSIBLE POWER
OUTAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY.

LOW PRES OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL GET CAPTURED AS
THE UPPER LOW MIGRATES E. BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA FROM THE ATLC. THE HEAVIEST AXIS WILL BE
SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS AS HAS BEEN
ADVERTISED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. DECENT DEFORMATION
BANDING, A LLVL JET OF 45-50 KTS AND UPPER DIFLUENCE WILL AID 
IN THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. ANOTHER THING TO NOTE IS THE MOISTURE
PLUME EXTENDING FROM FL NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. LIGHTNING
STRIKES WERE NOTED IN THE ENHANCED CLOUD STRUCTURE. A PORTION OF
THE PLUME WILL GET PULLED INTO NEW ENGLAND ADDING TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AS WELL. SO, THERE IS POTENTIAL OF RAINFALL >1.50 INCHES
IN A 6 HR PERIOD. AS OF 06Z, PWM RECEIVED 1.62 INCHES OF RAINFALL
SINCE 12Z TUESDAY AND IT WAS STILL RAINING. THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS IS
FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. EXTENDED THE HEAVY RAIN
WORDING ALL THE WAY INTO THE CROWN OF MAINE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CWA W/THE LOW MOVING ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA. RAINFALL
TOTALS EXTENDED ACROSS A 72 HR PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM 3-5 INCHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS INTO DOWNEAST MAINE INCLUDING THE
COAST W/SOME AMOUNTS HITTING 6 INCHES ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE
FAVORED REGIONS. ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE, IT LOOKS LIKE 1-3 INCHES.
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
MORE ON THIS IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

WINDS ARE A CONCERN FOR THE COAST AND A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO MIDDAY THURSDAY. THE BEST SHOT FOR STRONG WINDS
MIXING DOWN WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SIDE OF WASHINGTON COUNTY
CLOSER TO THE LLVL JET CORE. THE NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW GUST
POTENTIAL FOR EASTPORT TO BE AROUND 47 MPH. GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE HANCOCK COUNTY COAST. IMPACT WILL BE AN ISSUE
W/LEAVES ON THE TREES AND A SATURATED GROUND. THE DAYCREW CAN
ASSESS THIS FURTHER TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LOW PRES WILL THROUGH NOVA SCOTIA EARLY SATURDAY W/SOME SHOWERS
AROUND EARLY IN THE DAY. AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE
GFS AND ECMWF TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING BUT MUCH COLDER. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. A FAST MOVING
LOW PRES SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION
W/RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO AROUND 0.25 INCHES. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL.

HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS ON MONDAY W/DRIER BUT
CHILLY CONDITIONS. A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE IN THE
OFFING FOR TUESDAY AS SSW WINDS KICK IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
HIGH AS IT MOVES TO THE E. THE GFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN GLOBAL ARE
ADVERTISING 925MB TEMPS TO SHOOT TO A RANGE OF 14-17C. THIS WOULD
TRANSLATE TO MILD TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE GIVEN ENOUGH
SUNSHINE. ATTM, DECIDED TO TAKE CONSENSUS APPROACH W/MID TO UPPER
50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST
POSSIBLY SEEING 60-65. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS W/THE LATER
MODEL GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DECREASE TO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
TODAY AND IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: IFR W/LLWS CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR ACROSS THE KBGR AND KBHB
REGION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL
REMAIN AT IFR. IFR/MVFR FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS INTO SATURDAY
WHILE KBGR AND KBHB LOOK TO GO VFR BY MIDDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE NAM12 WITH 125
PERCENT OF SUSTAINED WINDS FOR GUST SPEED. GALE WARNING STILL
LOOKS WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH TO NORTH
AND DEVELOPING LOW TO SOUTH. WILL KEEP TIMING THE SAME.

FOR WAVES: AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST FETCH IS DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH
OF THE LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP TODAY
AND TONIGHT WILL BE NORTHEAST WIND WAVE. LARGEST WAVES WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN WATERS (11 FEET/8-9 SECONDS) DUE TO LIMITED FETCH
FURTHER NORTH. A SECONDARY WAVE SYSTEM (SOUTHEAST 4-5 FEET/9-10
SECONDS) ALSO EXPECT TO ENTER THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY ORIGINATING
FROM FETCH ON NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE OCEAN LOW. WILL USE NEAR SHORE
WAVE MODEL FOR GRIDS.

COASTAL FLOODING: DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PROBLEM AT THIS TIME DUE
TO ANGLE OF WAVE ATTACK AND RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF PRIMARY
WAVE SYSTEM. ALSO LUNAR/TIDE CYCLE IS NOT HIGHEST OF MONTH. WAVE
RUNNUP MATRICES NOT SHOWING ANY OVERTOPPING.

SHORT TERM: GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY W/A GRADUAL WEAKENING BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LLVL JET
LIFTS NE. DECIDED TO STAY W/GUSTS OF 40 KTS FOR NOW AND SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25 TO 30. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO TOP OUT AROUND 12
FT AND THEN BEGIN TO FALL BACK BY THURSDAY EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO A SCA RIGHT INTO FRIDAY ESPECIALLY
FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS AS WAVE HEIGHTS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL STAY UP
ABOVE 6 FT. CONDITIONS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL DROP BACK BELOW SCA
LEVELS ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW PASSES ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION, A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL SHOW
SIGNIFICANT RISES FROM THE EXPECTED RAINFALL. SINCE THIS IS
STRETCHED OVER A LONG DURATION, FLOODING OF THE MAINSTEM RIVERS IS
NOT EXPECTED ALTOUGH MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD BE DUE
TO CLOGGED STORM DRAINS FROM THE FALLEN LEAVES AND PONDING OF
WATER. THIS SITUATION NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED W/THE MOISTURE PLUME COULD GET PULLED INTO
THE REGION ECNHANCING RAINFALL RATES. IF THIS OCCURS, THEN SOME OF
THE SMALLER RIVERS COULD SHOW SHARPER RISES AND POSSIBLY HIT
BANKFUL.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR 
     MEZ010-011-015>017-029>032.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT THURSDAY FOR 
     MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT
HYDROLOGY...HEWITT






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