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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCAR 210511
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1211 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
WEAK WARM FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATER SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY WILL BRING RAIN
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1210 AM UPDATE...IT IS MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. A SURFACE
TROUGH NW OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO WESTERN MAINE TOWARD MORNING
ALONG WITH SOME FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
ARE FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S AS OF MIDNIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE WITH M/U 20S DOWNEAST. BY DAYBREAK LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOW/MID TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WITH LOW 20S ALONG THE
COAST. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE PICTURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE ARCTIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY ENTERING THE WESTERN MAINE BORDER
AND WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS...SNOW SQUALLS AND RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS FRONT COULD DROP A QUICK INCH
OR TWO OF WIND-BLOWN SNOW AND CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING FOR THE
CROWN OF MAINE THIS EVENING DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. VARIOUS
MEASURES OF LIFT ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT. THERE ARE
STEEP LAPSE RATES...AROUND 150 J/KG OF CAPE AND CONSIDERABLE
SHEAR. GUSTS OF 35 MPH TO 40 MPH SHOULD BE EASILY ATTAINABLE. WITH
TOPS APPROACHING H600...QUARTER-MILE VISIBILITIES ARE QUITE
POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. FURTHER SOUTH...THE FRONT WILL JUST
BRING A WIND SHIFT AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS NORTH AND LOWER 20S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL CROSS FRIDAY MORNING AND
WILL LIKELY SET OFF MORE SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY MORNING NORTH OF
HOULTON. NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH AND WIND CHILLS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORY FOR FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CREATE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT
DOWNSLOPE DRYING SHOULD ALLOW SOME SUNSHINE TOWARDS BANGOR. HIGHS
WILL BE MID 20S NORTH AND AROUND 30F FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER S/WV WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS TERM W/A MODERATION IN
THE AIRMASS BY SUNDAY.

HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
W/PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT W/OVERNIGHT LOWS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
WHILE LOWER TEENS FOR CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST. THE S/WV MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
AND GFS BOTH SHOW SOME MID LEVEL FORCING W/DECENT RH THROUGH
700MBS. DECIDED TO INCLUDE 30-40% POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE BEST
FORCING WILL BE SITUATED. QPF WILL BE NO MORE THAN 0.05" AND W/A
10:1 SNOW RATIO, DECIDED TO SHOW UP TO 1/2 INCH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO START OUT CLOUDY W/SOME LEFTOVER SNOW
SHOWER/FLURRIES AND THEN CLEARING IS EXPECTED. A GRADUAL
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS WARMER AIR BEGINS TO
PUSH IN FROM THE WSW. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WHILE
CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST COULD SEE LOW TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY W/A CONTINUED WARMUP.

THE 12Z RUNS OF THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW AN INTENSE LOW PRES
SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVING N ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
MONDAY. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL BRING AN OCCLUDED FRONT ACROSS THE
NEW ENGLAND REGION INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT W/TIMING AND QPF. THERE IS SOME DIFLUENCE ALOFT
COMBINED W/A 55 KT LLVL JET TO SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND
GUSTS OF 40 MPH ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND EASTERN 3RD OF MAINE LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER RIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT
W/TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY RISING OVERNIGHT ON SSW WINDS. 

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A LULL IN THE WINDS AND THEN ANOTHER
SURGE EARLY TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT AND CAA. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW
GUST POTENTIAL FOR 45 MPH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIT IN THE MORNING ON TUESDAY AND
THEN THEY WILL FALL BACK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL
HIGH TUESDAY MORNING TO ACTUALLY HIT THE 50S BEFORE COOLING OFF.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
W/ANOTHER SURGE OF COLDER AIR W/TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS AND THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF HUL
FRIDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: VFR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR FOR KCAR, KPQI AND KFVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
W/SHSN. VFR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONTINUED STRONG SCA THROUGH FRIDAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY
REACH 35 KTS...BUT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD DO NOT SUPPORT A
SUSTAINED GALE IN SPITE OF THE STRONG COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS.

SHORT TERM: SCA POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN A LULL
FOR EARLY SATURDAY. ANOTHER SURGE OF SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. DECIDED TO KEEP GUSTS AT 30 KTS W/THE NEXT
S/WV SATURDAY EVENING. BEST SHOT FOR ANY GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE
OVER THE OUTER WATERS. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE MIDNIGHT
CREW'S ASSESSMENT W/THE WINDS ATTM. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY TO 6-7 FT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...HEWITT/VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...CB/MCW/HEWITT/VJN
MARINE...CB/MCW/HEWITT/VJN



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