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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCAR 280911
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
411 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...AND WILL MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE
FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS TO DOWN EAST MAINE YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TODAY. SOME BANDS OF SNOW
CONTINUE TO ROTATE WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND DOWN EAST MAINE
AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SNOW BANDS WILL
DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY.
SOME AREAS COULD SEE AND ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TODAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES TODAY WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
TEENS NORTH AND MID TEENS TO LOW 20S DOWN EAST.

SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW TO 15 BELOW
ZERO ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS AND 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE
ACROSS DOWN EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

***WINTER STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT
 MORNING***

HIGH PRES CRESTS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THU MORNING AND MOVES
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. ATTENTION TURNS TO LOW PRES AND AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE FRI WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO EXTEND BACK ACROSS MAINE.
THE 700 MB LOW MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY FRI.

THU WILL BE A DRY DAY...AND AFTER A COLD START TEMPS WILL
MODERATE BACK INTO THE 20S DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE DAY SHOULD
START WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM. THE CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND THICKEN THU NIGHT WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE RECORDED DURING THE EVENING WITH
TEMPS TO SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
INITIALLY THE SYSTEM WILL BE SOMEWHAT MOISTURE STARVED...BUT AS
THE ENERGY REACHES THE COAST DURING THE DAY FRI ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL BE FUNNELED BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. THE MODELS
DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF BOTH THE SFC AND MID LEVEL LOWS WHICH
WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL. IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT IF THE LOW IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE COAST THAT SOME COASTAL AREAS MAY HAVE ENOUGH WARM AIR MOVE IN
FOR A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN AT SOME POINT DURING THE EVENT. DESPITE
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT THAT A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA WILL REACH WARNING
CRITERIA SNOWFALL...AND THUS WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FRI NIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL INTO
THE MARITIMES AND WRAPS MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE REGION. THE SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION SAT. DRY AND
COLD WEATHER FOLLOWS FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY
BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF LOWS LOOKS
TO AFFECT THE REGION MON INTO MON NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET AND MOVES TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST MONDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT
WITH A VERY COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE A TRACK ACROSS MAINE (12Z ECWMF
AND 00Z GFS) IS NOT FAVORED AS THE BEST BAROCLINC ZONE IS LIKELY
TO LIE FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT THIS TIME
WOULD SUSPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE ACROSS THE DOWN EAST REGION AND INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST MAINE.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING
IN LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OTHERWISE A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY ALONG WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW. VFR WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR THU THROUGH THU EVENING.  CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY 
LOWER TO MVFR LATE THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRI MORNING IN -SN.  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR AND POSSIBLE VLIFR IN 
SNOW DURING THE DAY FRI AND CONTINUING INTO SAT MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM AND SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT. SOME FREEZING SPRAY CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. 

SHORT TERM: THE WIND AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 
LEVELS THROUGH THU NIGHT.  A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE 
NEEDED FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GALES LATER FRI 
NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AS LOW PRES PULLS AWAY FROM THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. HIGH TIDE
OCCURS AT 5 AM THIS MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...A RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL OF 13.3" WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY 
AT BANGOR, MAINE. THIS BROKE THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 10.8", SET IN 
1963. 

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY 
     MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY 
     MORNING FOR MEZ001-003-004-010-015-016-029-031.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ029-
     030.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR 
     ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...DUDA/CB
MARINE...DUDA/CB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DUDA
CLIMATE...CB



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