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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCAR 310846
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
446 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION. A COASTAL STORM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE
REGION BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY TODAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. THE NORTH WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
THE DAY WHILE SOUTHERN REGIONS WILL SEE SOME SUNSHINE. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE GUIDANCE SPITS OUT A BIT OF QPF
ACROSS THE NORTH, BUT FEEL THIS IS OVERDONE DUE TO THE DRY LAYER
AT LOW LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
40S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GIVE WAY TO THE FIRST WAVE OF 
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. THIS TRANSITION WILL 
BE SLOW, THOUGH, SO EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WELL 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AND EVEN THEN, ONLY FAR DOWNEAST REALLY HAS MUCH OF 
A CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION BEFORE DAYBREAK. TONIGHT'S 
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY, AS IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE 
IS GOING TOO COLD. DEWPOINTS WILL BE COLD, BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUD 
COVER AND NORTHEAST WIND, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE GREATLY 
INHIBITED. THEREFORE, RAISED OVERNIGHT LOWS ONE CATEGORY FROM THE 
PREVIOUS FORECAST, WHICH WOULD GIVE NORTHERN AREAS LOWS IN THE LOWER 
30S AND THE MID/UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S DOWNEAST. THEREFORE, EXPECT 
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN, WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE 
SNOW FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO SHOW RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH
THE LOW PRES COMPLEX XPCTD TO EVOLVE JUST OFF THE SE COAST BY SAT
AND THEN MOVE TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE SUN. FOR THE PURPOSE OF
THIS UPDATE...WE DID NOT USE MUCH OF THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS ATTM...
WHICH APPEARED TO BE TO FAR NW WITH THE STORM TRACK...TO LOW
FOR THE CNTRL LOW PRES AND SUBSEQUENTLY BEING TO HVY WITH LIQ
EQUIV QPF. WE LEANED MORE WITH 00Z WPC...ECMWF...AND NAM GUIDANCE
FOR 6 HRLY QPF AND DERIVED SNFLS FOR THIS PTN OF THE FCST. LOW
CONFIDENCE CAN BE THE MAIN STATEMENT WITH THIS EVENT...WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF SHARP CUT-OFFS OF QPF/SNFL SPCLY ON SUN SOMEWHERE
OVR THE FA...MOST LIKELY OVR THE ERN PTN OF THE REGION. WE ARE
MORE CONFIDENT OF GETTING SOME QPF WITH THE FIRST SURGE OF
MOISTURE WITH OVRRNG LATE SAT INTO ERLY SUN MORN WITH A LEAD...
WEAKER S/WV AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW. ITS THE THE PLACEMENT OF
THE NEXT BATCH OF QPF WITH THE MAIN SFC/UPPER LOW THAT COULD
AFFECT OUR FA...SPCLY THE SE... LATER SUN INTO SUN EVE THAT IS IN
QUESTION...AND FOR NOW WE SHOW MORE OF A GRAZING OF QPF THESE
PDS...BUT THIS IS THE MOST UNCERTAIN ASPECT OF THE FCST...WITH
EVEN A LITTLE DIFFERENCE E OR W GREATLY AFFECTING THE POTENTIAL
OF ADDITIONAL SNFL ACROSS THE REGION.

WE BEGIN WITH LOW SN RATIOS SAT EVE WHEN THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP
ARRIVES...SINCE LLVL ADVCN AND DYNAMIC COOLING FROM ALF WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THE CHGOVR OF RN TO SN...WHICH WILL HAPPEN FIRST ACROSS
THE N AND CNTRL...AND BY LATE SAT NGT OVR DOWNEAST AREAS. WE DO
BRING SN RATIOS CLOSER TO 10:1 N OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATE SAT
NGT INTO SUN MORN. AFTWRDS...SN RATIOS WILL DEPEND LATER ON SUN
WHETHER STEADY PRECIP IS STILL OCCURRING OVR THE FA...BUT FOR NOW
WE SHOW LOW SN RATIOS FOR THE LATE MORN THRU AFTN...SPCLY OVR SE
ME. THE UPSHOT OF THIS UNCERTAINTY IS THAT WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY WATCHES FOR NOW TO ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL
RUN BEFORE COMMITTING TO ANY WATCHES. ONE ADDITIONAL ELEMENT WITH
THIS EVENT WILL BE WIND...SPCLY ON SUN...WHICH COULD COMBINE WITH
WET SNFL ON TREES TO CAUSE DOWNED BRANCHES AND SPORADIC POWER
OUTAGES BY SUN NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY STEADY SN FROM SUN SHOULD WIND DOWN TO SN SHWRS WITH LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION SUN NGT...WITH SN SHWRS LINGERING LONGEST
ACROSS THE N EVEN INTO MON MORN ACCOMPANIED BY BRISK NW WINDS.
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY SLACKEN MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH AT LEAST PRTL
CLRG. CLDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TUE WITH THE THE NEXT CHC OF
RN SHWRS BEING LATER TUE NGT INTO THU WITH A SERIES OF S/WV FROM
THE GREAT LKS ACCOMPANIED BY MID AND LLVL WARM ADVCN.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 
PERIOD. CEILINGS MAY DROP TO MVFR VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW 
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST. 

SHORT TO LONG TERM: CLGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN RN
DOWNEAST AND RN/SN MIXED NRN TAF SITES...THEN LOWERING TO IFR
AND LIFR IN MSLY SN BY LATE SAT NGT...CONTG INTO SUN BEFORE
IMPROVING TO MVFR SUN NGT AND THEN TO VFR DOWNEAST SITES MON
AND TUE WHILE NRN TAF SITE REMAIN MSLY MVFR IN BKN-OVC SC.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET ON THE
WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, WINDS AND WAVES WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST
COAST. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR ALL OF OUR
WATERS FOR THE 12Z SAT TO 12Z MON PD ASSOCIATED WITH THE APCH
AND PASSAGE OF THE COASTAL LOW FROM THE MID ATLC STATES S OF
THE WATERS TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. AFTWRDS...A PD OF SCA WINDS AND
SEAS...SPCLY FOR THE OUTER MZ WATERS WILL BE NEEDED LATER ON MON
BEFORE WINDS AND SEA SUBSIDE BLO SCA CRITERIA SUN NGT...REMAINING
SO AT LEAST INTO TUE. WENT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV HTS FOR
THIS PTN OF THE FA. 

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR 
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN



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