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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCAR 280414
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1214 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1214 AM UPDATE...A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE OVERNIGHT ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT DROPPED
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MAINE. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE AS WELL AS DOWNEAST MAINE
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE NORTH ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MAINE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE
MIDNIGHT OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. LIKE CONSISTENCY OF GFS AND
ECMWF LAST FEW DAYS SO HAVE USED THESE TWO MODELS FOR MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR POPS...QPF AND SKY COVER THURSDAY. THE BIAS
CONSENSUS RAW WAS USED FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ALSO BASED ON
VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST, AND
WE ARE LOOKING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT. NORTHWEST MAINE HAS THE BEST
CHANCE OF COOL TEMPS AS THE HIGH WILL BUILD IN THERE FIRST. WINDS
IN MOST CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS WILL NOT FULLY DECOUPLE WITH TEMPS
NOT GETTING AS COOL AS THEY OTHERWISE COULD BE. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST MAINE TO LOW 50S DOWNEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR A
CRISP, CLEAR DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND VERY DRY AIR/LOW DEW
POINTS.

THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH WARMER, MUGGIER SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING.
SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOOKING GENERALLY UNSETTLED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER,
TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOTS OF PRECIPITATION STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN AS DISTURBANCES RIDE EAST ALONG A VERY SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOST PLACES WILL GET A WETTING RAIN AT SOME
POINT FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, BUT JUST WHERE AND WHEN
THAT HAPPENS IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. IT APPEARS THE BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE OVER THE NORTH EARLY ON (LATE SATURDAY TO
EARLY SUNDAY), WITH THE BETTER SHOT OF RAIN SHIFTING SOUTH WITH
THE FRONT TO DOWNEAST LATE SUNDAY TO MONDAY.

MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. HOWEVER, IT
APPEARS AN UNSETTLED AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS OVER NORTHERN MAINE THURSDAY
EVENING, WITH VFR EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. MVFR AND IFR EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SEAS WILL BUILD WITH A SOUTHEAST SWELL OVERNIGHT. A 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS
AND PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR WAVES: EXPECT LONG PERIOD WAVE
FRONT FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL TO ARRIVE IN LOCAL WATERS 
OVERNIGHT AND BUILD TO 6 TO 10 FEET/14-15 SECONDS BY MID DAY
THURSDAY THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. COMBINED SEAS WILL FINALLY DROP TO
BELOW 5 FEET AROUND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE NEAR
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. SOUTH WINDS
15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SEAS
GOING BACK UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT FRIDAY 
     FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...FOISY
LONG TERM...FOISY
AVIATION...CB/MIGNONE/FOISY
MARINE...CB/MIGNONE/FOISY






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