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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCAR 200543
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1243 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST MIDWEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SKIES
ARE CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS AND
THEIR IMPACT ON LOW TEMPERATURES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION COULD
SUPPORT INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN. A MORE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WOULD HELP LIMIT TEMPERATURE FALLS
OVERNIGHT...WHILE LESSER CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS WOULD ALLOW
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING. GENERALLY EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM AROUND ZERO THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO NORTH...TO 10 TO 15 INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH MID TEENS TO
AROUND 20 ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD COVER. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF
THE WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS...FOR
MARGINAL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
SATURDAY. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE A LOT OF CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE AND MORE BREAKS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR MID DECEMBER.
NOTICED THAT THERE WERE LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONGST THE MOS
GUIDANCE. THE MAV GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS IN LOOKED WAY TOO COLD FOR
TOMORROW WITH A HIGH OF ONLY 12F AT CARIBOU.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE STATE SATURDAY
EVENING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MONDAY EVENING. FOR POPS AND QPF
FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF. WILL KEEP HIGHER
CLOUD PERCENTAGES THAN MODEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE INVERSION
REMAINING IN PLACE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE IN THE
DAY TUESDAY AS INTENSE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTENSE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DYNAMICS
ARE TOO FAR TO THE WEST FOR SECONDARY LOW TO TAKE OVER
CIRCULATION...SO WAVE ALONG OCCLUSION WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND ON CHRISTMAS DAY. SO WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM EXPECT SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SOUTH
CHRISTMAS EVE TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AT NIGHT. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIND
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS 24TH INTO 25TH. EXPECT COLDER AIR MASS TO
RETURN TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. WILL INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS WITH
SUPERBLEND. SUPERBLEND APPEARS TO COLD FOR STORM EVENT 24TH/25TH
SO WILL USE THE CONSENSUS RAW FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL USE THE PRECIPITATION FROM THICKNESS TOOL
RUN ON A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD THEN DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER IS
STILL UNCERTAIN.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE
WATERS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS...FOR
MARGINAL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 1 FOOT SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY IN LONG
PERIOD INCOMING SWELL THEN BUILD TO AROUND 2 FEET TUESDAY. EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHEAST FETCH TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY FROM MAINE COAST
SOUTHEASTWARD. WILL USE THE WNA/4 FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG SOUTHEAST FETCH WILL DEVELOP BY 24TH/0000Z AND CONTINUE
UNTIL BROKEN UP BY WIND SHIFT ON THE 25TH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LARGE/LONG PERIOD WAVES APPROACHING THE COAST. CURRENT WAVE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST LARGES WAVES 25TH/1300Z. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE
WILL OCCUR APPROXIMATELY 25TH/0530Z... (11.76 FT MLLW) AND
25TH/1800Z...(12.73 FT MLLW). STILL LARGE UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF LARGEST WAVES AT THIS TIME FRAME...HOWEVER COINCIDENCE
OF LARGEST WAVES WITH HIGH TIDE COULD RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE
OVERTOPPING. POSSIBLE STORM SURGE WILL RAISE THESE LEVELS OF
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE RESULTING IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 55 INCHES OF SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR
THIS WINTER AT CARIBOU...WHICH IS 30.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. SEASON
TO DATE IT RANKS AS THE 3RD SNOWIEST START TO THE WINTER BEHIND
ONLY 1972 AND 2007.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR 
     ANZ050-051.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
MARINE...CB/MCW/MIGNONE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIGNONE
CLIMATE...CB



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