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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCAR 210223
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1023 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC PASSES TO OUR EAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE POPS TO HAVE THE
FIRST BATCH OF SHOWERS PULLING THROUGH NE MAINE BY MIDNIGHT AND
THEN A BREAK BEFORE MORE SHOWERS SET UP BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
DECIDED TO SHOW A SPLIT IN THE AREAL COVERAGE W/A BATCH ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE AND ANOTHER AREA MOVING IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS BY SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 50S INTERIOR
DOWNEAST TO THE COAST.

FOG POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MOST SPOTS TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSING TOWARD THE EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GUIDANCE IS KEEPING THE SECONDARY LOW
THAT DEVELOPS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER SOME
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SURFACE FEATURE WILL STREAM OUT
AHEAD BRINGING CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY. GIVEN PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DTMNSTC 12Z MODELS...ARE STILL SHOWING CONSIDERABLE MODEL TO MODEL
AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH FCST 6 HRLY QPFS FOR SUN NGT INTO
MON AS SEPARATE S/WVS FROM THE THE LOWER GREAT LKS AND THE LOWER
MID ATLC STATES PROGRESSIVELY MOVE ENE. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE
MORE SRN SFC LOW WITH THE MID ATLC S/WV COULD INTERCEPT SOME OF
THE ATLC MOISTURE THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN DESTINED TO ADVECT INTO THE
SFC LOW OF THE NRN S/WV FROM THE GREAT LKS...RESULTING IN A GAP
OF LESSER RNFL OVR MUCH OF THE FA. FOR NOW WE USED THE 09Z SREF
RUN TO GAP SOME OF THESE DTMNSTC RUN TO RUN MODEL DIFFERENCES...
RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT SMOOTHED POP DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN QPF
BULLSEYES N AND S OF THE FA...BUT THERE COULD BE AREAS OF
RELATIVELY SPOTTY RNFL IF SOME OF THE LATEST DTMNSTC MODEL RUNS
VERIFY. AFT MILD OVRNGT LOW SUN NGT...HI TEMPS MON WILL SHOW A
LITTLE GREATER SE TO NW GRADIENT DUE TO A COLD FRONT TRAVERSING
ACROSS THE REGION DURG DAYLIGHT HRS. 

OTHERWISE...SUN NGT INTO MON WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ACROSS NRN/CNTRL
PTNS OF THE FA AS WHATS LEFT OF THE GREAT LKS S/WV CROSSES THESE
PTNS OF THE FA. SUBSEQUENTLY...WE KEPT CLD CVR HIER OVR THE N AND
CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA WITH A SLGT CHC OF SHWRS. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER MON NGT AND TUE WITH CONTD COOL LLVL ADVCN...WITH SC AND
NW WINDS PREVENTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MON
NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. AS 
SUCH, EXPECT A STRETCH OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER. A BACK DOOR COLD 
FRONT MAKES A RUN AT THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY, BUT IT 
LOOKS TO BE A DRY FRONT THAT ONLY PRODUCES SOME CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES 
WILL WARM GRADUALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS TO REACH ABOVE 
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: THERE WILL BE THE OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTH THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WHERE LOW
STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.


SHORT TERM: MSLY LOW MVFR AND IFR LOW CLGS AND VSBY WITH SHWRS WILL
PREDOMINATE THE TAF SITES SUN NGT THRU MON...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO VFR FOR DOWNEAST SITES AND AT LEAST MVFR NRN TAF
SITES MON NGT. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR ON TUE CONTG THRU THU.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR SEAS CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH
SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 5 FT TONIGHT. OTHERWISE VIS WILL BE
REDUCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WV HTS BUILD TO SCA AND ABV MIN SCA CRITERIA OVR MSLY
THE OUTER WATERS SUN NGT THRU MON WITH A WSWRLY WIND FETCH WHICH
WILL MSLY FEATURE WIND SPEEDS JUST BLO SCA CRITERIA OF 25 KT. WV
HTS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE MON NGT TO BLO SCA CRITERIA OVR THE
OUTER WATERS ON TUE AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE OFFSHORE...SHORTER
FETCH NW WIND DIRECTION. WENT WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY 
     FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT







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