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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCAR 240520
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
120 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO
THE OPEN ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE EAST
ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH
SATURDAY NIGHT.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE: PRECIP CONTS TO SPREAD NWWRD ACROSS OUR ERN/NERN AREAS...
AS THIS PRECIP PUSHES INTO THE COLDER AIR...EXPECT SOME WET SNOW
TO DVLP AND ALREADY SEEING THAT AT KFVE W/ A FEW INCHES PSBL LATER
TNGT INTO THU AM ACROSS THE FAR N AND NW. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
ACCUMS BUT ATTM FCST AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH OVER THE NE AND 1-3
OVR THE FAR N AND NW APPEARS REASONABLE. CURRENT FCST APPEARS ON
TRACK ATTM W/ NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A COLD UPPER LOW THAT CROSSED EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS THIS MORNING WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH SUCH THAT ONLY COASTAL HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES ARE VULNERABLE TO ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVERNIGHT. THE
LOW WILL DEEPEN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WHICH WILL REDUCE
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP A NEGATIVE TILT OVERNIGHT AND SEND ATLANTIC MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH INTO NEW
BRUNSWICK AND ALONG THE EASTERN MAINE BORDER LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION TOTALS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO A MAXIMUM OF JUST OVER A HALF INCH ALONG THE EASTERN
MAINE BORDER. WHILE PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN MAINE BORDER OVERNIGHT...COLDER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE RESULT WILL BE SNOW IN NORTHWESTERN MAINE LATER IN
THE NIGHT WITH ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW...MOSTLY FOR ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 1000 FEET WHERE THE WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE AS BIG A
FACTOR. ANY SNOW WILL CHANGE BACK TO RAIN THURSDAY MORNING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 30S NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE.

DURING THURSDAY...BANGOR WILL BE ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF
PRECIPITATION BUT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH. FURTHER EAST...THE TRADE-OFF WILL BE LESS
WIND...BUT STEADIER RAIN THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL BE A CHILLY DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE BANGOR AREA WHERE UPPER 40S ARE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE LLVL MOISTURE WITH THE SLOWLY DEPARTING SFC/UPPER
LOW S OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE E OF THE REGION THU NGT.
SCT RN AND SN SHWRS THU EVE SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE BY FRI MORN.
DESPITE THIS...WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG LLVL SUBSIDENCE...
BKN-OVC SC CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD WELL INTO THE DAY
FRI...SPCLY ACROSS THE NE AND FAR NW PTNS OF THE FA...BEFORE
GIVING WAY TO PARTIAL CLRG FRI EVE. OTHERWISE SRN AND WRN PTNS OF
THE FA SHOULD EXPERIENCE MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE SPCLY BY THE
AFTN HRS.

AFT A BRIEF CLRG OVRNGT FRI FOR ALL OF THE FA...CLDS AHEAD OF
ANOTHER ADVCG SFC LOW AND S/WV ALF FROM THE GREAT LKS WILL MOVE
EWRD INTO THE FA LATE FRI NGT INTO ERLY SAY MORN. CLDS WILL CONT
TO THICKEN THRU THE DAY SAT...WITH INCREASING RN SHWR/STEADY RNFL
POPS TO THE REGION SAT AFTN.

LOW TEMPS THU NGT AND TO A LESSER XTNT...FRI NGT WILL BE HELD UP
BY WIND...AND OR CLD CVR. OTHERWISE...CLD CVR AND LLVL COOL ADVCN
WILL HOLD HI TEMPS A FEW DEG BLO NORMAL ON FRI...WHILE INCREASING
CLDS AND THE POTENTIAL OF AFTN RN WILL ALSO KEEP HI TEMPS FEW DEG
BLO NORMAL ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A PATTERN OF FAST MOVING LOWS THAT MOVE FROM THE WRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE MID-WEST...INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. WILL KEEP THE
NORTHEAST IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. BRIEF PERIODS OF DRYING AS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BETWEEN LOWS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM
ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THERE ARE MINOR DIFFERENCE
IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE LOWS. GENERAL PATTERN CONTINUES WET
AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

LOADED SUPERBLEND THROUGH PERIOD. USED DIURNAL TOOL FOR HRLY
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT FOR
GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR FOR KBHB AND KBGR INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. FROM KHUL NORTHWARD...IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID MORNING THU AND WILL THEN TRANSITION TO MVFR BY NOON. SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FROM KPQI TO KFVE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE FOR THE DOWNEAST
TERMINALS THU WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CIGS AND OCNLY VSBYS XPCTD FOR NRN TAF
SITES WITH BKN-OVC SC AND OCNL LGT RN/SN SHWRS THU NGT INTO FRI
MORN WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL STIES THEN VFR FRI AFTN
THRU SAT. THE NEXT CHC OF MVFR AND PERHAPS ATTMS IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL BE SAT NGT THRU MON SHWRS/RNFL ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER
LOW PRES SYSTEM FROM THE UPPER GREAT LKS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND HAS PICKED UP SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED AND IS
GUSTING WELL INTO SCA LEVELS AS OF 9 PM. HAVE THUS STARTED THE SCA
AS OF THIS UPDATE TIME. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KTS
LATER THURSDAY AS MIXING WILL EXTEND TO A GREATER HEIGHT...BUT
WILL NOT GO WITH GALE AT THIS TIME.

SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS WITH N TO NW WIND GUSTS AND WV HTS WILL
CONT FROM THE NEAR TERM THRU MOST OF THE NGT THU NGT...BEFORE
SUBSIDING BY FRI MORN. THEN WINDS AND WV HTS WILL REMAIN BLO SCA
THRESHOLDS FRI THRU SAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH FROM THE RECENT SNOW MELT
AND RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WERE HIGHEST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE HSA WITH AMOUNTS AROUND AN
INCH. THE RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE RISES OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. ADD'L RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY OF UP
TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
HSA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...KHW/MCW
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...KHW/MCW/VJN
MARINE...KHW/MCW/VJN
HYDROLOGY...CB






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