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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCAR 141651
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1251 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE CROSSING THE GULF OF MAINE
TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY...WITH A
SECONDARY LOW STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATER TODAY. LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY...MOSTLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
GENERALLY EXPECT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL WARMING COULD OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE AN INCH OR
LESS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH...TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
EXPECTED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SNOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD
THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO FALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST MAINE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHTER
SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. ALONG THE COAST, SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR
EVEN FALL AS RAIN FOR AT TIME EARLY THIS EVENING WHICH MAY LIMIT
SNOW AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST MAINE BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN MAINE,
EXCEPT FOR NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK COUNTY WHERE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS AND IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S DOWNEAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN ELONGATED SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM THE GULF OF MAINE  
TO SOUTH OF SABLE ISLAND SUN MORNING. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY 
FROM THE REGION SUN AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH 
PRES SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. THE ACCOMPANYING MID/UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE SUN MORNING AND WILL MOVE
ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA SUN EVENING. THE SFC RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA MON AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS THE AREA
AROUND MIDDAY MON. SNOW WILL WIND DOWN TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
SUN AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED SUN NIGHT
INTO MUCH OF THE DAY MON WITH THE CHANCE OF SNOW TOWARD EVENING IN
THE WEST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST MON NIGHT. LOW
PRES IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT CROSSES MAINE MON NIGHT AND
PULLS EAST OF THE MARITIMES TUE. UNLIKE MOST OF THE WEATHER EVENTS
OVER THE PAST 2 MONTHS THE BEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
WITH THIS LOW MAY END UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MOST
OF THE SNOW WILL FALL MON NIGHT INTO TUE...BUT WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE CROWN OF
MAINE AND INTO PARTS OF WASHINGTON COUNTY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HAVE A BIT MORE WIND SO BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN. MAINLY DRY AND COLD FOR THU AND
FRI...AND STILL BREEZY THU.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: IFR AND AT TIMES VLIFR INTO SUN MORNING WITH CONDITIONS 
TO IMPROVE TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. VFR EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO MON 
WITH CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO IFR-LIFR IN SNOW MON NIGHT INTO TUE. 
MOSTLY VFR AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS BY TUE NIGHT WITH MVFR ACROSS 
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS INTO FAR NORTHERN MAINE.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT. A GALE WARMING REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN/SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUN INTO SUN NIGHT AS
STRONG LOW PRES PULLS WAY FROM THE REGION. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ONCE THE GALE ENDS MON MORNING WITH THE WIND
AND SEAS TO DIMINISH TO BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR A TIME MON AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY MON NIGHT. ANOTHER GALE LIKELY TUE INTO WED AS DEEP LOW
PRES MOVES EAST OF THE WATERS.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FOOT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE LOW AND COASTAL FLOODING AND OVERTOPPING
WAVES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
&&

.CLIMATE...
MARCH IS OFF TO A COLD START. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
THIS MONTH AT BANGOR OF 21.2 DEGREES IS 5.8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AT CARIBOU...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 15.8 DEGREES IS 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

FOR THE PERIOD 2/1 THRU 3/13 IT HAS BEEN THE COLDEST SUCH PERIOD
ON RECORD AT BANGOR AND THE 2ND COLDEST AT CARIBOU.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT 
     SUNDAY FOR MEZ002>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY 
     FOR MEZ005-006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR 
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...CB
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...NORCROSS/CB
MARINE...NORCROSS/CB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CB
CLIMATE...CB



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