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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCAR 200108
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
908 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL INTENSIFY SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
9 PM UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS HOUR. 

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC SOUTH OF CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA...ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL MAINE. A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIGGING SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COAST. THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TO CENTRAL CANADA TO THE NORTH. BY MON
MRNG...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NEW
BRUNSWICK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OUT INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW...WILL GENERATE A
NEW TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH A
NEW SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. MON EVNG...THE END OF
THE PERIOD...THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH MAINE
BEING IN THE RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE QUIET...WITH BOTH MAX AND
MIN TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED RFCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL DIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY CARVING OUT A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL SET US UP FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAINY WEATHER BY MID-WEEK. A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW TO OUR
SOUTH WILL RESULT IN A DEEP E TO SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE BIG
QUESTION IS WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL EVENTUALLY
SET UP ACROSS OUR CWA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE
ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND DRIER AIR MAY TEND TO KEEP THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN REACHING FAR NORTHERN MAINE AND THE ST JOHN
VALLEY. THUS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE
AND TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. WE SHOULD FINALLY START TO DRY OUT BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER RIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. COLDER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW BEHIND
A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: BKN SKY CON EARLY...THEN CLEARING. VFR CONDITIONS ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL STAY UP OVER NIGHT THIS WILL KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

SHORT TERM: FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA BY
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. GUSTY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AND SCA WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. 

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SEAS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD AS EAST GALE
FORCE WINDS DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORTON
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...NORTON/DUDA
MARINE...NORTON/DUDA






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