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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCAR 010952
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
552 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL QUEBEC WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
540 AM UPDATE: ONLY CHGS MADE WERE TO FCST HRLY TEMPS INTO LATE
MORN BASED ON OBSVD TEMPS AT 5 AM AND IMPLIED MINOR CHGS TO PRIOR
FCST LOWS. OTHERWISE...SKIES REMAIN CLR TO MCLR WITH A LIGHT NW
BREEZE THIS MORN AS PER THE LAST FCST UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: SFC HI PRES FROM QB WILL PROVIDE SUNNY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S BY MIDDAY SPCLY OVR NRN AND
ERN PTNS OF THE FA...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. DESPITE BEING A
LITTLE COOLER THEN YSTDY...HI TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION WILL STILL
BE 3 TO 6 DEG F ABV NORMAL FOR THIS TM OF SEASON.

AS THE HI MOVES SE OF THE FA TNGT...A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION FROM THE WSW OVRNGT...BRINGING INCREASING HUMIDITY BY LATE
NGT ALONG WITH PTLY CLDY SKIES. WINDS WHICH INITIALLY BE LGT AND
VRBL THIS EVE...WILL INCREASE FROM THE SW LATER TNGT...SPCLY
ACROSS NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP OVRNGT LOWS
RELATIVELY MILD/WARM FOR THIS TM OF SEASON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM AND HUMID DAY IS ON TAP WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
HIGHS WILL BE WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A 90F READING COULD BE RECORDED TOWARDS BANGOR
AND THE LOWER PENOBSCOT VALLEY. DEW POINTS WILL BE IN THE MID
60S...MAKING FOR A SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY...ALONG WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL. THIS WILL SET OFF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHERN ZONES...MOSTLY IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY ENHANCED WORDING AT THIS
TIME BUT WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF IN THE EVENING. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WITHOUT ANY PRECIP. THE
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
70S IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK TO LOWER 80S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.
HUMIDITY WILL BE MUCH LOWER. DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARDS THE LOWER 40S. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
DIMINISHING WINDS...THIS WILL GENERATE A COOL AND CRISP NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE. BANGOR AND DOWN
EAST WILL DROP TOWARDS 50F.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS IN PLACE. FRIDAY
WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT START TO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH SUNNY
SKIES...LOW HUMIDITY AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. ANOTHER FAIRLY
COOL NIGHT IS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL CREEP
UPWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AS THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
PROGRESSES. A POWERFUL UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER. THE HIGH WEAKENS MONDAY
AND MAY ALLOW A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO CREEP SOUTHWARD LATER ON LABOR
DAY. HAVE MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN AROOSTOOK
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT TOO HIGH WITH REGARD TO
THESE SHOWERS. ON THE OTHER HAND...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH LABOR DAY FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: UNLMTD VFR XPCTD FOR ALL TAF SITES TDY THRU TNGT.

SHORT TERM: PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. PATCHY
SHALLOW VALLEY FOG COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VIS AT SUNRISE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY MORNINGS...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW FOR THIS SCENARIO.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD. WV HTS WILL MSLY BE ARND 2 FT OVR THE
OUTER MZS AND ARND 1 FT ALG THE NEAR SHORE WATERS. WW3 WV GUIDANCE
WAS SCALED BACK TO 75 PERCENT OVR THE OUTER MZS AND ABOUT 50 PERCENT
ALG THE NEAR SHORE.

SHORT TERM: FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME 20 KT GUSTS.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW



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