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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCAR 300103
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
903 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE ITS WAY DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TRACKS EASTWARD SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
902 PM UPDATE...A VERY MOIST SOUNDING THIS EVENING AT KCAR WITH A
SATURATED LAYER FROM 875-600 MILLIBARS. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE...ESPECIALLY SO IN THE
ST JOHN VALLEY. THE NEAR TERM MODELS WOULD HAVE MOST OF THE LIGHT
RAIN MOVING OUT OF THE ST JOHN VALLEY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE POSSIBLE IN MOST
AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
LATE THIS EVENING RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE ST JOHN VALLEY
TO THE L/M 50S DOWN EAST. EXTENSIVE STRATUS WILL PREVENT TEMPS
FROM FALLING ANY LOWER THAN THE UPPER 30S IN THE ST JOHN
VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH M/U 40S FOR MOST DOWN EAST AREAS. ONLY MINOR
UPDATES BASED ON THE 9 PM OBSERVATIONS...RADAR AND NEAR TERM MODEL
TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SYNOPTIC SCALE AND MESO-SCALE MODEL BOTH SUGGEST A LGT OVRRNG
RAIN BAND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FAR NRN PTN OF THE FA INTO
ERLY EVE...WITH SCT SHWRS AND PATCHY DZ ELSEWHERE. AFTWRDS...OVRNGT
SCT SHWRS AND PATCHY DZ WILL CONT ACROSS ALL OF THE FA. LOW CLDNSS
SCT SHWRS AND PATCHY DZ WILL ALSO CONT INTO TUE MORN...WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT BY TUE AFTN...ALTHOUGH BKN-OVC SC WILL LIKELY HANG IN
ACROSS MOST OF THE FA. OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL...HELD UP
SOMEWHAT BY CLD CVR...SHWRS AND DZ. HI TEMPS TUE WILL CONT TO BE
COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS 
PERIOD. MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP ESPECIALLY 
DOWNEAST SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY 
NIGHT, ALONG WITH PERHAPS PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. THERE SHOULD BE 
SOME IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND 
CENTRAL MAINE. HOWEVER, UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL TREK OFF THE NEW 
JERSEY SHORE AND SPIN ITS WAY SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA, KEEPING CLOUDS 
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS, MAINLY 
OFFSHORE. THURSDAY WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA 
AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY, ALLOWING FOR SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON. 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND 
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BEGINNING THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OFF TO THE NE ACROSS
NEWFOUNDLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
NOSING OF THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF
SYSTEM AFFECTING GREAT LAKES TO THE TN VALLEY FRIDAY. THEREFORE WE
CAN EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FA ON FRIDAY.
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT TO THE WEST WILL BEGIN
TO ADVANCE EAST AND WE WILL SEE A INCREASE IN CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE COUPLED WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN
WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAIN SATURDAY IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FA. HOWEVER THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME BIGGER MODEL SPREAD IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS
IS NOT AS DEEP WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS
MUCH DEEPER AND EVENTUALLY PRODUCES A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS QUEBEC
LATER SUNDAY. THIS WOULD LEAD TO MUCH DIFFERENT QPF/POP SOLUTIONS
WITH ECMWF OVERALL BRING BETTER DYNAMICS AND QPF TO THE FA. RIGHT
NOW WILL GO CLOSE TO A MODEL CONSENSUS GIVEN SOME OF THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER DID OPT TO SLOW THE
POP SOLUTIONS OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS DOWN PARTICULARLY IN
RELATION TO THE BEGINNING TIME ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
JUST ISOLATED PRECIP CHANCES IN THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE
LOW MOVES NE. MODEL SPREAD ALSO QUITE EVIDENT BY MONDAY AGAIN KEPT
CLOSE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THIS PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST MVFR CLGS...AND
LATER TNGT...VSBYS WITH SHWRS/PATCHY DZ WILL PREVAIL TNGT FOR
ALL TAF SITES...WITH A PD OF IFR CLGS POSSIBLE LATER TNGT FOR
DOWNEAST SITES. WITH A LLVL E WIND REGIME...MVFR CLGS SHOULD CONT
FOR ALL SITES THRU TUE.

SHORT TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AT KBGR AND KBHB, DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR THURSDAY AS SKIES
BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WILL CONT THE SCA FOR ENE WINDS AND SHORT FETCH/PD WVS
UNTIL 12Z...AT WHICH POINT...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE
SUBSIDING BLO SCA THRESHOLDS. WENT INITIALLY WITH HIGHER SWAN
WV GUIDANCE...THEN BLENDED WITH WW3 BY TUE AFTN.

SHORT TERM: HEADLINES SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY FOR THE MID WEEK
TIME FRAME. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS, BUT THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...CB/VJN/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/VJN/HASTINGS




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