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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCAR 280346
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1046 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT THEN CROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY THEN MOVE EAST SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. LIGHT WINDS AND THE
SNOWPACK COULD HELP RAPID RADIATIONAL COOLING IN AREAS WHERE
CLOUDS DISSIPATE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES COULD THEN STABILIZE OR
BEGIN TO SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DEPENDENT ON
THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER. GENERALLY EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO
RANGE THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 ABOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...TO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH AROUND 20
TO THE MID 20S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST
TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER. HAVE ALSO CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS WITH THIS UPDATE AND
TRANSITIONED TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE OUTER
PORTION OF THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY BUT WILL STAY WELL OFF-SHORE
BASED ON THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY. WILL BLEND THE NAM...GFS AND ECWMF
FOR POPS...CLOUDS AND QPF. HAVE USED THE RAW BLEND FOR TEMPERATURE
AND DEW POINT TO BETTER HANDLE THE TRANSITION TO COLDER AIR MASS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING
INTO WRN ME. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE SRN PORTIONS
OF THE GULF OF ME...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES...INTO WRN PA. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND SOUTH
ALONG THE MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. CLEARING BEGINS ACROSS WRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE. SAT MRNG THE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES TO ERN NEW BRUNSWICK...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILD
ACROSS THE STATE. WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST EXTENDING
ACROSS PA INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. BY SAT EVNG...THE LOW MOVES
INTO SRN CANADA NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR....THE WARM FRONT MOVES
INTO ERN NY. EARLY SUN MRNG...THE GFS MOVES THE LOW TO JAMES
BAY...EXTEND THE WARM FRONT INTO WRN MAINE. THE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER
MOVES THE WARM FRONT TO NH. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST....WITH THE ECMWF ABOUT 6HRS TO
12 HRS BEHIND THE GFS.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD OF THE FORECAST FOR HRLY TEMP/DP...WND/POP/SKY. LOADED
NAWAVE4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WNDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND 30 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. USED
HPCGRIDS FOR QPF...ECMWF/GFS BLEND FOR THE LAST 12HRS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT HOWEVER ARE ABOUT 9 HRS
OUT OF PHASE WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTER OF THE TWO. THE GFS
SHOWS A WRM FRONT ACROSS ERN ME...ECMWF WRN ME...MID DAY THE GFS
INTO NEW BRUNSWICK...ME INTO THE WARM SECTOR. THE ECMWF WARM FRONT
TO ERN ME. BY EARLY MON MRNG THE GFS MOVES THE COLD FRONT INTO NW
ME. THE ECMWF THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NW ME BY MID DAY MON. BY
MON EVNG THE GFS MOVES THE FRONT INTO THE SRN GULF OF ME...THE
ECMWF BY TUE MRNG. BOTH BUILD HIGHER PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
GFS SHOW A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND SOUTH ACROSS QUEBEC
THAT WILL CROSS NRN ME EARLY TUE MRNG...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED MRNG.

BEHIND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE A DIFFERENT
TAKE ON THE NEXT SYSTEM. WED MNRG THE GFS MOVES A COLD FRONT INTO
WRN ME...FROM A LOW OVER HUDSON BAY. THE ECMWF. INTO SRN
MAINE...FROM AN OCCLUDED SYSTEM WITH THE LOW OVER NRN LAKE
SUPERIOR...BRINGING THE TRIPLE POINT INTO WRN MAINE WED MRNG. THE
GFS MOVES ITS FRONT THROUGH BY WED EVNG...THE ECMWF MID DAY THURS.
THE GFS KEEPS US UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE WEST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AT PERIODS END. THE ECWMF MOVES THE FRONT INTO THE SRN GULF
OF MAINE...WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WRN MAINE AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CEILINGS...ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS COULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

SHORT TERM: A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWER ACROSS NRN ME AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD REDUCING THE PREVAILING MVFR VSBY AND CEILINGS
TO IFR AFFECTING FVE...CAR...PQI THROUGH THE EARLY EVNG HRS. MVFR
BECMG IFR CONDITIONS SUN MRNG AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. IMPROVING TO MVFR ALL SITES SUN AFTERNOON...TO VFR BGR AND
BHB BY END OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERS WITH THIS UPDATE AND TRANSITIONED TO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
WATERS OVERNIGHT...WHICH MIGHT NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

SHORT TERM: AN SCA MAY BE REQUIRED ON SUNDAY AS A FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE WATERS...OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 AM EST FRIDAY 
     FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/NORTON
MARINE...NORCROSS/NORTON



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