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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCAR 010526
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1226 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THEN MOVE EAST
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND COLD TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH AROUND 5 ABOVE ZERO TO 5 BELOW ZERO ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST. LOCALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IN SHELTERED LOW LYING LOCATIONS...WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS HILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRES AROUND 1045 MILLIBARS IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
PA THIS AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SLOWLY
DRIFT OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SUN. A TROUGH DRAPED
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
ONTARIO SUN AFTERNOON.

MARCH TO COME IN LIKE A LAMB THIS YEAR. LOTS OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE FOR 
MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS THE DAY WEARS ON.  
THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE AND HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW 
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY. OUR FORECAST HIGH TEMPS IN MANY AREAS
HAVE BEEN REACHED BY AROUND NOON THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAVE
HAD TO BE RAISED...AND WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST HIGHS UP JUST A
BIT FOR TOMORROW. THIS MEANS HIGHS IN THE M/U 20S ACROSS THE CROWN
OF MAINE TO AROUND THE FREEZING MARK ALONG THE COAST.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE MAJOR SYSTEMS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
AS A TWO SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
ERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE INTO WRN MAINE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. A SECOND SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS HUDSON BAY WITH ITS
COLD FRONT SE INTO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL COMBINE WITH THE SYSTEM OVER
THE ERN GREAT LAKES. BY MON MRNG THE COMBINED SYSTEM WILL SWEEP
THROUGH TO ERN MAINE. THE MODELS INDICATE SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE NEW LOW ALONG THE
COAST OF MAINE. THE GFS OVER THE DOWNEAST COAST...ECMWF OVER THE
MID-COAST REGION. BOTH THE GEM/NAM SHOW THE SECONDARY LOW OVER THE
SRN GULF OF MAINE. MON EVNG THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES TO THE EAST.
THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE IT TO NEWFOUNDLAND. THE GEM/NAM INTO THE
MARITIMES EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS INTO MAINE
THAT WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TUES AFTERNOON AS A NEW LOW MOVES
EAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TO ERN NE. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE NEW LOW WILL MOVE INTO MICHIGAN...AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST.

LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF FOR T/TD/WND/POP. LOADED
NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15 PERCENT TO WINDS
FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...35 PERCENT FOR GUSTS OVER COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SIMILAR SOLUTIONS WITH TRACK OF LOW ALONG ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY
BUT MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR
WITH THE SYSTEM. GFS IS MUCH DEEPER AND WARMER SOLUTION
INDICATING RAIN DOWNEAST WITH MIXED ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN AREAS.
ECMWF SHOWS RAIN ALONG COAST...MIXED IN CENTRAL AND SNOW ACROSS
NORTH. OPTED TO STICK WITH BLEND SOLUTION...CLOSER TO EUROPEAN.
GUSTY WINDS AND COLDER AIR AS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS IN. LINGERING CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW. SHORT RESPITE FROM
SNOW ON FRIDAY UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUT CLOUDS WILL AGAIN BE
ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AHEAD OF NEXT LOW APPROACHING FROM WEST.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: IFR IN LIGHT SNOW BGR...BHB...HUL...MVFR NRN SITES AS
A LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MAINE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SW
TO NE MON MRNG WITH ALL SITES VFR MON AFTERNOON. GENERALLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS MON NGT THROUGH TUES MRNG...WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS
TUES MRNG...MID LEVEL CLOUDS TUES AFTERNOON. BY TUES EVNG
BGR...BHB WILL BE OVRCST MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS RETURN TUES NGT IN SNOW WITH AS THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES IN. IFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE SW AND SPREAD EAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THURS MRNG WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR BY THURS AFTERNOON AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: WINDS ANDS SEAS BELOW SCA SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS
BUILDING TO GALE FORCE GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 6
TO 9 FT. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW SCA TUES AFTERNOON AS HIGHER
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO BELOW 5 FT
TUES MRNG.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THIS FEBRUARY WILL END AS THE ALL-TIME COLDEST MONTH
ON RECORD AT BANGOR...AND THE COLDEST FEBRUARY AT CARIBOU. THE
LATEST UP TO DATE INFORMATION ON THE COLD WEATHER THIS FEBRUARY IS
AVAILABLE ON THE NEWS HEADLINES ON THE TOP OF OUR WEB PAGE AT
WEATHER.GOV/CAR

A FULL SUMMARY OF THE MONTH WILL BE AVAILABLE BY SUNDAY EVENING.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$

NEAR TERM...CB/MCW
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...PJR
AVIATION...CB/MCW/NORTON
MARINE...CB/MCW/NORTON
CLIMATE...CB



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