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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCAR 030220
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1020 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT HAVE NOW MOSTLY DISSIPATED.
HOWEVER...COULD STILL HAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. 
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT. COULD ALSO HAVE FOG MOVE INLAND ALONG THE DOWNEAST
COAST OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH...TO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY...BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE FCST AREA. WINDS MAY BE STRONGER/GUSTY TOMORROW
DUE TO STRONG MIXING IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN CREST OVER THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT THEN MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY. WILL BLEND THE GFS AND
NAM WHICH BOTH PRESENT REASONABLE SOLUTIONS. THE SUPER BLEND
CONTINUES TO WORK WELL WITH TEMPERATURE SO WILL USE IT THIS PERIOD
FOR MAX/MIN.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BE BUILT ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
EXTENDED EAST WEST ACROSS CANADA NORTH OF THE RIDGE. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MAINE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE
RIDGE SLIPS TO THE SOUTH. EARLY WED MRNG THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA. THE ASSOCIATED LOW AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL QUEBEC AND REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. A NEW LOW MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WED AFTERNOON WILL MOVE INTO THE ERN
GREAT LAKE EARLY THURS...ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
NRN MAINE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE LOW WILL BE ALONG THE WRN
ME/QUEBEC BORDER.

DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD USED A BLEND OF THE
MODELS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.
&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR WITH ANY FOG ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED
IN AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM: FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE MULTI-MODEL APPROACH AND
BLEND THE GFS AND NAM. FOR WAVES: EXPECT NORTHEAST FETCH ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. NORTHEAST WIND WAVE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE EARLY FRIDAY
(2-3 FEET/5 SECONDS) BUT WILL BE LIMITED BY FETCH DISTANCE. WIND
WAVE WILL SUBSIDE LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS. PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM SATURDAY WILL BE
LONG PERIOD INCOMING SWELL (AROUND 2 FEET/10-11 SECONDS).
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/BERDES
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE



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