Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Caribou, ME banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4]



000
FXUS61 KCAR 241556
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1056 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC PROVINCE THIS
AFTERNOON PRODUCING AN AREA OF RAIN WHICH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS AND AREAS OF FOG
WILL ALSO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NORTH TO THE MID 50S DOWNEAST. HAVE UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHWEST QUEBEC PROVINCE TOWARD
LABRADOR TONIGHT. EXPECT THE RAIN TO EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK BY
MID-EVENING. THE FRONT ITSELF WON'T MOVE THROUGH UNTIL A BIT LATER
IN THE EVENING, AND WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND,
THERE'LL STILL BE THE CHANCE FOR FOG AND DRIZZLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT
OR SO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD LLVL ADVCN WILL BE CONTG THRU TUE BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT. SKIES WILL BEGIN MCLR TO PTLY CLDY TUE MORN...WITH MORE IN
THE WAY OF BKN-OVC SC AND A SLGT CHC OF SN SHWRS FOR NRN PTNS OF
THE FA LATE TUE INTO TUE NGT AS WHATS LEFT OF AN UPPER TROF SLIDES
EWRD MSLY N OF THE REGION. TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY THE FIRST FEW
HRS OF TUE MORN...THEN BEGIN TO FALL...SPCLY ACROSS THE N. OVRNGT
TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN MON NGT...BUT STILL ABV NORMAL FOR LOWS
ERLY WED MORN.

WED WILL BEGIN PTLY CLDY MOST LCTNS...BUT HI AND MID CLDNSS FROM
THE SFC LOW ADVCG NEWRD FROM THE SE STATES WILL OVRSPRD THE REGION
FROM SW TO NE DURG THE DAY. THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP WILL REACH
DOWNEAST AREAS BY MID AFTN AND AT LEAST INTO E CNTRL PTNS OF THE
REGION BY THE BEGINNING OF EVENING. HI TEMPS WED WILL BE ABOUT 10
TO 15 DEG COLDER THAN HI TEMPS TUE. PRECIP MAY BRIEFLY BEGIN AS
LGT RN OR A MIX OF LGT RN/SN OVR DOWNEAST AREAS...BUT EVAPORATIONAL
AND DYNAMIC COOLING FROM ALF SHOULD CHG ANY RN TO ALL SN BY EVE...
XCPT PERHAPS ALG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND OUTER ISLANDS WHERE RN OR
MIXED RN AND SNOW COULD ON UNTIL LATE TNGT.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE NOTED THAT THE 00Z DTMNSTC ECMWF HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE
COASTAL LOW FURTHER E THAN RECENT PAST RUNS...NOW TAKING THE LOW
INTO THE ERN BAY OF FUNDY. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z DTMNSTC GFS RUN IS
ALSO A SLIGHTLY MORE E WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM COMPARED TO
YSTDY ATTM...ALG WITH THE CORRESPONDING GFS ENSM...BOTH TAKING
THE LOW ALG THE S COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY THU MORN. IF THE GFS...
WHICH REPRESENTS THE MIDDLE OF MODELS WITH REGARD TO THE TRACK IS
CORRECT...THE BEST POTENTIAL OF HVY SNFL WED NGT INTO THU MORN
WOULD BE OVR DOWNEAST TO PERHAPS AS FAR N AS E CNTRL PTNS OF THE
FA. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH INCLUDES
DIFFICULTIES OF GAGING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SRN JET STREAM S/WV
SUPPORTING THE SFC LOW AND THE POTENTIAL OF ANY PHASING FROM NRN
JET STREAM S/WV ENERGY...IT IS TO ERLY TO ISSUE ANY WNTR STM
WATCHES ATTM...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CONSENSUS MODEL TRACK
COULD SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER E WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS. IN ANY
EVENT...WE WILL CONT TO ADVERTISE THIS EVENT IN OUR HAZ WX OUTLOOK
AND HIGHLIGHT A BETTER POTENTIAL OF POSSIBLE WATCHES FOR SPCLY
DOWNEAST AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE REGION.

OTHERWISE...ANY STEADY SNFL OVR PTNS OF THE FA THU MORN SHOULD
WIND DOWN TO SCT SN SHWRS THU AFTN AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS ENE FROM
NOVA SCOTIA. LEFT OVR LLVL MOISTURE FROM THE EXITING SFC LOW AND
A FOLLOW-UP S/WV FROM S CNTRL CAN WILL KEEP THE CHC OF SN SHWRS
SPCLY FOR THE N HLF OF THE FA THU NGT INTO FRI BEFORE SKIES
FINALLY BECOME CLR TO PTLY CLDY FRI NGT. SEMI-ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWS
THE CAN S/WV FOR FRI NGT. ANOTHER S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN WILL LIKELY
BRING MORE SN SHWR ACTIVITY TO THE REGION LATER SAT INTO SUN AS IT
APCHS AND TRACKS MSLY N OF THE REGION. ENOUGH RETURN SRLY LLVL
WARM ADVCN COULD OCCUR FOR SN SHWRS TO MIX WITH OR CHG TO RN SHWRS
OVR THE S HLF OF THE REGION SUN BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION BY LATE SUN.
&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS.  

SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR XPCTD TUE THRU WED MORN...WITH MVFR SC
CLGS POSSIBLE FAR NRN TAF SITES FROM LATE TUE INTO WED. OTHERWISE
...IFR-LIFR IN SN WILL SPREAD NEWRD ACROSS DOWNEAST SITES LATE WED
AND CONT NEWRD THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES OVRNGT WED. IFR
IN SN WILL CONT THU MORN ACROSS NRN TAF SITES...BUT WILL IMPROVE
TO MVFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE TO MVFR
NRN TAF SITES IN SC CLGS AND SN SHWR VSBYS THU AFTN THRU FRI AND
IMPROVE TO VFR OVR DOWNEAST SITES.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN
AND FOG THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: SCA WINDS AND WV HTS WILL CONT TUE WITH WSW
WIND FETCH AND THEN TAPER TUE NGT. AFT A BRIEF BREAK WED MORN...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL AGAIN INCREASE TO AT LEAST SCA RANGE BY LATE
WED WITH THE APCH OF THE COASTAL LOW FROM THE SW AND CONT OVRNGT
WED INTO THU AS THE LOW TRACKS TOWARD THE MARITIMES. GALE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS LOW...ITS TO EARLY TO COMMIT WITH
GALE FORCE WINDS WED NGT AND THU ATTM. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV
GUIDANCE FOR WV HTS THIS UPDATE.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...NORCROSS/VJN
MARINE...NORCROSS/VJN



National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy