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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCAR 200039
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
739 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST MIDWEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. SKIES ARE
CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN FORECAST 
CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUDS AND
THEIR IMPACT ON LOW TEMPERATURES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION COULD
SUPPORT INCREASING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THE
EXTENT OF CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN. A MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER WOULD HELP LIMIT TEMPERATURE FALLS OVERNIGHT...WHILE LESSER
CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS WOULD ALLOW FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING. GENERALLY EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE
THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NORTH...TO 10 TO 15 INTERIOR
DOWNEAST WITH MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
AND MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
SATURDAY. SATURDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE A LOT OF CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE AND MORE BREAKS ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR MID DECEMBER.
NOTICED THAT THERE WERE LARGE DISCREPANCIES AMONGST THE MOS
GUIDANCE. THE MAV GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS IN LOOKED WAY TOO COLD FOR
TOMORROW WITH A HIGH OF ONLY 12F AT CARIBOU.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE STATE SATURDAY
EVENING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MONDAY EVENING. FOR POPS AND QPF
FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF. WILL KEEP HIGHER
CLOUD PERCENTAGES THAN MODEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE INVERSION
REMAINING IN PLACE. FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE IN THE
DAY TUESDAY AS INTENSE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY INTENSE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DYNAMICS
ARE TOO FAR TO THE WEST FOR SECONDARY LOW TO TAKE OVER
CIRCULATION...SO WAVE ALONG OCCLUSION WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND ON CHRISTMAS DAY. SO WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM EXPECT SNOW NORTH AND MIXED PRECIPITATION SOUTH
CHRISTMAS EVE TO CHANGE TO ALL RAIN AT NIGHT. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIND
ADVISORIES/WARNINGS 24TH INTO 25TH. EXPECT COLDER AIR MASS TO
RETURN TO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. WILL INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS WITH
SUPERBLEND. SUPERBLEND APPEARS TO COLD FOR STORM EVENT 24TH/25TH
SO WILL USE THE CONSENSUS RAW FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT. FOR
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL USE THE PRECIPITATION FROM THICKNESS TOOL
RUN ON A 50/50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS COULD THEN DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
EXPECT WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 1 FOOT SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAINLY IN LONG
PERIOD INCOMING SWELL THEN BUILD TO AROUND 2 FEET TUESDAY. EXPECT
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHEAST FETCH TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY FROM MAINE COAST
SOUTHEASTWARD. WILL USE THE WNA/4 FOR WAVE HEIGHTS.
&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A LONG SOUTHEAST FETCH WILL DEVELOP BY 24TH/0000Z AND CONTINUE
UNTIL BROKEN UP BY WIND SHIFT ON THE 25TH. THIS WILL RESULT IN
LARGE/LONG PERIOD WAVES APPROACHING THE COAST. CURRENT WAVE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST LARGES WAVES 25TH/1300Z. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE
WILL OCCUR APPROXIMATELY 25TH/0530Z... (11.76 FT MLLW) AND
25TH/1800Z...(12.73 FT MLLW). STILL LARGE UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF LARGEST WAVES AT THIS TIME FRAME...HOWEVER COINCIDENCE
OF LARGEST WAVES WITH HIGH TIDE COULD RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE
OVERTOPPING. POSSIBLE STORM SURGE WILL RAISE THESE LEVELS OF
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE RESULTING IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOTAL OF 55 INCHES OF SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED SO FAR
THIS WINTER AT CARIBOU...WHICH IS 30.2 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL. SEASON
TO DATE IT RANKS AS THE 3RD SNOWIEST START TO THE WINTER BEHIND
ONLY 1972 AND 2007.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIGNONE
CLIMATE...CB



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