Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Caribou, ME banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4]



000
FXUS61 KCAR 290432 AAA
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1232 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THEN MOVE 
EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY AND CREST OVER THE STATE EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1231 AM UPDATE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN MAINE BEHIND A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS NOW
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES. A FEW SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MAINE...MAINLY EASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY
INTO NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WILL COME
TO AN END WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. CLEARING IS EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE NOW IN MUCH OF NW MAINE AND THE AREA OF CLEARING WILL
MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH MOST AREAS TO BE CLEAR OR AT LEAST
P/CLOUDY BY DAYBREAK. ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS ALONG WITH THE
MIDNIGHT OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM MODELS WHICH HAVE A DECENT
HANDLE ON THE WEATHER TONIGHT. ESTCOURT STATION IS DOWN TO 42F AS
OF MIDNIGHT AND WILL LOWER TEMPS SOME ACROSS THE NW VALLEYS.

HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY WILL LEAD TO A MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE SLIDING EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WARMER SW FLOW TO
DEVELOP WITH HIGHS SATURDAY WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE
WARM ADVECTION WILL ALSO RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTH. HOWEVER THE LATEST TRENDS IN FORECAST GUIDANCE KEEP MOST OF
THE SHOWERS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUES SATURDAY NIGHT IN
THE NORTH AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA OVER
QUEBEC. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY AND ALSO
SPREAD SOUTH WITH TIME AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN. CAPES ARE
ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF THE CHANCE OF THUNDER BUT MAINLY OVER WESTERN
AREAS WHERE THIS HAS BEEN REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS. HIGHS LOOK TO BE
IN THE 70S WITH INCREASING LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BE MORE UNSETTLED AS THE
FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE STALLS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER PERSISTING
WITH THE CONTINUING CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER IT DOES NOT LOOK TO
BE AN "ALL DAY RAIN" TYPE OF SCENARIO AT THIS POINT. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES HEADING INTO THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME AS THE GFS KEEPS CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WHILE THE EURO
ADVERTISES DRYING WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN. USED OUR EXTENDED
FORECAST MODEL BLEND PROCEDURE WHICH RESULTS IN CONTINUING
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE DAYS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
LONG RANGE LOOK TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM FRENCHVILLE TO
HOULTON. THE MVFR CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS AS
FAR WEST OF BANGOR AND BAR HARBOR. THE MVFR CONDITIONS OVER
NORTHEAST MAINE WILL IMPROVE TO VFR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
VFR FOR FRI.

SHORT TERM:
VFR THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MVFR/IFR BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
HEADING INTO SUNDAY DUE TO SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE IN THE NORTH. CLOUDS
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS LOOK TO PERSIST WITH THIS FRONT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A CONTINUING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR LONG PERIOD SWELLS
FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 9 FEET WITH PERIOD
OF 14 TO 16 SECONDS.

SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS ALSO
LIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. S/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. SEAS WILL ALSO ONCE AGAIN BUILD TO NEAR 5 FT BY
SUNDAY. WINDS/SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ONCE AGAIN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS 
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/FOISY
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/FOISY/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/FOISY/FITZSIMMONS






National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy