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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCAR 182027
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
327 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD
TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO
MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS PEI THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR LATEST
WINTER STORM WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE FAR NW
ATLANTIC FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL VERY
SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FLOW AROUND
THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PRODUCE SOME SNOW THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS EASTERN MAINE WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT. ANY
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS FOR MOST AREAS AND
HAVE ALLOWED THE REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES TO EXPIRE.
DOWN SLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW DOWN EAST AREAS TO SLOWLY DRY OUT
TONIGHT.  CLOUDS AND FLURRIES OR ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO A FEW
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON. DOWN EAST AREAS SHOULD BE
P/SUNNY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST MAINE TO AROUND 20 ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN
MAINE WITH MID 20S DOWN EAST. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO THE LOW 30S IN THE
BANGOR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL
BE CLOUD COVER AND NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS
THAT MOISTURE WILL GET TRAPPED BELOW DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED THE LEAD
OF PREVIOUS SHIFTS AND LEANED WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
FOR LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS
(ESPECIALLY THE NAM)SHOWING SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER BENEATH THE
INVERSION. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT MAY FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BEFORE CLOUDS BUILD IN TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING. SOUNDINGS
SHOW CLOUDS MAY HANG TUFF RIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS ONCE AGAIN WILL
RESULT IN A TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. IF
CLOUDS HANG IN TEMPERATURES MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
FORECASTED SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE/UPPER RIDGES WILL SHIFT EAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE AREA CHRISTMAS EVE. APPEARS THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE
MORE WET THAN WHITE AS LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW PRESSURE PASSING
OFF TO OUR WEST LATER CHRISTMAS EVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY.
ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE THE PRECIPITATION START AS SNOW INITIALLY IT
SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE TO RAIN ALL AREAS BY LATER CHRISTMAS EVE.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS AND TO VFR AT THE DOWN EAST TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY VFR TOMORROW...BUT PATCHES OF MVFR STILL
POSSIBLE FROM KHUL NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. 

SHORT TERM: MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY CONTINUE AT TIMES RIGHT INTO SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE WIND WILL BE TRENDING DOWN DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. 
&&

.CLIMATE...A TOTAL OF 11.3 INCHES OF SNOW AT WFO CARIBOU AS OF 1
PM. THE SEASONAL TOTAL IS NOW UP TO 53.4 INCHES...WHICH RANKS AS
THE 3RD SNOWIEST WINTER SEASON TO DATE BEHIND ONLY 1972 AND 2007. 

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...CB/DUDA
MARINE...CB/DUDA
CLIMATE...CB



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