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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCAR 242233
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
633 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN
MOVE EAST SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
630 PM: ONLY VERY MINOR CHGS WERE MADE TO FCST HRLY CLD CVR AND TEMPS
GOING INTO THE OVRNGT BASED ON LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND OBSVD 5 AND
6 PM TEMPS. OTHERWISE...NO SIG DEPARTURES FROM THE LAST FCST UPDATE.

ORGNL DISC: SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WAY FROM THE REGION DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ALOFT...AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE BELCHER ISLANDS IN HUDSON BAY WILL 
MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH FRIDAY.  THE LOCAL AREA WILL 
REMAIN IN VERY WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW.  THERE 
WILL BE SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT IN THE FLOW THAT CROSSES 
NORTHERN MAINE FRIDAY.  

SENSIBLE WX...CLEARING ACROSS COASTAL WASHINGTON COUNTY BY EARLY 
THIS EVENING WITH A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT FOR THE CWA.  A DRY AIR MASS 
AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND WILL MAKE FOR A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM 
THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH AND UPPER 40S FOR INTERIOR 
DOWNEAST TO THE MID 50S ALONG THE COAST. A FEW OF THE NORMAL COLD
SPOTS UP NORTH COULD DROP CLOSE TO 40F. DID LOWER TEMPS A FAIR
AMOUNT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
VALLEYS. A FEW PATCHES OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SHELTERED RIVER
VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN. FRIDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE WITH THE CHANCE OF A SHOWER...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE. INSTABILITY IS
ONLY MARGINAL SO ALTHOUGH A VERY ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORM COULD
DEVELOP WILL NOT MENTION ANY STORMS. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE M/U 70S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO THE LOW 80S
INTERIOR DOWNEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES 
DOWNEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...THOUGH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD
BRING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY WITH MORE EXTENSIVE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STEADIER RAIN.
HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...LEVELS SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE EAST WILL BRING A SERIES OF 
SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A 
MODERATION IN TEMPS DURING THE MID WEEK. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY 
CLOUDY WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS ONE WEAK LOW MOVES AWAY 
AND ANOTHER APPROACHES ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOWERS 
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS 
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. DRIER AIR MAY THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA 
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING WARMER TEMPS. THE UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH TO OUR WEST MAY PRODUCE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWERS LATE 
WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN SPOTS. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD 
THEN BE PARTLY SUNNY, WARMER AND MORE HUMID AS THE UPPER TROUGH 
LIFTS AWAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST PUSHES WARMER AIR 
INTO THE STATE. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE 
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG AT KPQI...KHUL...OR KBHB. 

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
IN LOWER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH 
FRIDAY.  

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL SEAS ARE THEN POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS AND FOG LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/NORCROSS
MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS






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