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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCAR 210728
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
228 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND
THEN MOVE EAST SUNDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WEST OF THE
REGION MONDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ALOFT...A DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE 
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL 
RISE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS A FLAT RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.  

SFC...A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING 
WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE THROUGH MID-MORNING
AND EXIT INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. STRING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MIDWEST
WILL MOVE TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...TODAY WILL BE A WINDY AND COLD DAY 
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN 
MAINE AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 20S ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE TO NEAR 30 IN
THE BANGOR AREA. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH 925-850
MB WIND OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY DAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH. THIS WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE CROWN OF MAINE WITH TEENS DOWN EAST. THE WIND WILL
SLACKEN THIS EVENING...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY EXPECT A VERY
COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS ALONG THE
COAST. SOME OF THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS IN THE NW VALLEYS HAVE A
DECENT SHOT AT DROPPING BELOW ZERO...AND HAVE LOWERED TEMPS SOME
IN THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
SATURDAY AND MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE SATURDAY, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THERE'S NOT A TON OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE, SO SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 20S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR 
TO BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE 
INDICATES THAT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE EARLY IN THE EVENING, WITH 3-
HOURLY TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR EVEN RISING SLIGHTLY 
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST 
ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT WE'LL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT 
AS ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION 
WILL MAINLY FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW, WITH SOME RAIN MIXING IN ALONG 
THE COAST. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. 

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY NOSE INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY, 
WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF 
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 
MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH, AND THE LOWER TO MID 40 SOUTH, SO 
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MIX WITH RAIN, EVEN IN THE NORTHERN 
REACHES. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BIG WARMUP IS ON TAP FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO AND QUEBEC MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY,
LIFTING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AS IT DOES SO. AS SUCH,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 40S AND 50S DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING RIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT,
STARTING OUT AS SNOW NORTH/RAIN SOUTH, BUT IT WILL TRANSITION OVER
TO RAIN EVERYWHERE ON MONDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS FROM
WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING THE RAIN TO TAPER TO SHOWERS,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE LATER TUESDAY, FINALLY
BRINGING IN THE COLDER AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE AIR
WILL POST-FRONT WILL ALSO BE MUCH DRIER, SO EXPECT THE RAIN
SHOWERS TO COME TO AN END BEFORE THEY HAVE THE CHANCE TO CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW. THE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME DISCREPANCIES
FOR MID WEEK, MAINLY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL LIFT UP THE EAST COAST/WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE LATTER
SYSTEM, BASICALLY BRINGING THE LOW CENTER JUST OFF THE SOUTH NOVA
SCOTIA COAST, WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE CENTER WELL TO THE EAST.
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.
REGARDLESS, THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
THE START, WITH HIGHS AND LOWS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM KHUL 
NORTH TO KFVE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
BUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KFVE AND
KCAR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SNOW SHOWERS. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR POOR CONDITIONS ARRIVES MONDAY AS A WARM
FRONT CROSSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL START AS
SNOW IN THE NORTH/RAIN IN THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MVFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL, WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SNOW. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL GIVE
WAY TO SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT, BUT EXPECT THE MVFR/LOCAL IFR TO
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR
AND CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE WIND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS
ARE LIKELY MOST OF THE NIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A LOW-LEVEL JET OF 35-45KT WILL SET UP OVER THE
WATERS LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST PART
OF THIS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE OWING TO THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATERS, SO WOULD ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A HIGH-END
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED, IF NOT A GALE WATCH/WARNING.
LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CB
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...CB/HASTINGS
MARINE...CB/HASTINGS



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