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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCAR 050217
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1017 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...THEN MOVE
SOUTH SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
CLEAR SKIES. COULD ALSO HAVE PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY
IN RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS. GENERALLY EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...THOUGH COULD LOCALLY HAVE MID TO
UPPER 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER NORTHWEST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND
INTERIOR DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50 ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST
TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY RETREAT TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST
SATURDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY. THE AIR MASS WILL MODERATE AND INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A RUN TOWARD 80 DEGREES. A SEA BREEZE WILL
KEEP TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORE LINE.
&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DRIFT TO THE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC MONDAY.
EXPECT DEW POINTS TO INCREASE IN THE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE HIGH
MONDAY. WILL BLEND THE NAM AND GFS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY BUT SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH LATER MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN CWA MON
NIGHT, BRINGING A CHC POPS TO THE AREA. THE FRONT MAY THEN STALL
ACROSS THE CWA AS ASSOCIATED WEAK LOW APPROACHES ACROSS SRN
QUEBEC. MODELS DIFFER ON THIS POINT, WITH GFS ACTUALLY PUSHING A
LOW & FRONT THRU THE CWA ON TUE NIGHT INTO WED, WHILE THE EURO
PULLS THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS THE LOW MOVES FM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE LWR ST. LAWRENCE. DID LWR POPS A BIT TUE NIGHT INTO WED, BUT
STILL KEPT CHC AND SLGT CHC POPS.

BOTH FINALLY SHOW A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU WED NIGHT
INTO THURS, SO DID BUMP UP POPS A BIT IN SOME AREAS. BOTH SHOW A
WET END TO NEXT WEEK, BUT HAVE VERY DIFFERENT WAYS TO GET THERE.
THE GFS IS VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST
FM THE GREAT LAKES BY FRI EVE. THE EURO HOLDS OFF ON THAT UNTIL
THE WEEKEND, BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST, BUT DOES PUSH SOME
MOISTURE UP THE COAST WITH A COASTAL LOW ON FRIDAY. WILL BEAR
WATCHING TO SEE IF MODELS CONVERGE ON ONE OR THE OTHER SOLUTION.
&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...LOCALLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS
COULD OCCUR WITH ANY PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AT KFVE...KCAR AND KPQI.
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS THIS PERIOD TO
BETTER HANDLE BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. FOR WAVES: EXPECT INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WAVE (2 FT BUILDING 4 FT/4-6 SECONDS) SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD SWELL (1
FOOT/9-10 SECONDS) THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WILL INCLUDE
AREAS OF FOG SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS DEW POINTS INCREASE.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/CB
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...KREDENSOR
AVIATION...NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...NORCROSS/MIGNONE



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