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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCAR 131109 AAA
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
709 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND WILL
AND PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
650 AM UPDATE: TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED TO MEET THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
WINDS DID DECOUPLE IN THE LAST HR AND ADJUSTED TEH WINDS DOWN FOR
TODAY AS HIGH PRES IS PUSHING PER THE 10Z SURFACE ANALYSIS.

FOR TODAY, HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. SUNSHINE AND A LIGHT NW WIND WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RESPOND ACCORDINGLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR MARCH. MORE LIKE WINTER AGAIN.

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL START MOVING INTO THE SW AND DOWNEAST
REGION TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRES SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK SOME EARLY IN THE NIGHT AND THEN LEVEL
OFF AND EVEN RISE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA. ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST, MOSTLY CLEAR W/READINGS GETTING DOWN TO THE SINGLE
NUMBER AND PERHAPS AROUND 0F IN THE LOW LYING AREAS. DECIDED TO
BRING PRECIP CHANCES UP TO 40% ACROSS THE SW AND DOWNEAST REGION
USING A CONSENSUS APPROACH W/A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE LOW
AND SOME OVERRUNNING SETTING UP. THE NAM12 SOUNDINGS ARE SUPPORTED
BY THE GFS W/MOISTURE INCREASING FROM 850-700MBS AND SOME WEAK
FORCING. MORE ON THIS SYSTEM IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD CENTRAL AND DOWN
EAST AREAS EARLY SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION...
IN ADVANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. MODELS INDICATE A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP EAST OF CAPE COD LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS DURING SATURDAY WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION DURING SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. AS IT DOES SO,
A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AND
TRANSPORT ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY BEFORE WINDING DOWN
LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH GYX HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY
WATCHES AT TIME SINCE THE HEAVIEST SNOW ISNT EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AND THERE STILL IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE PALCEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST QPF. THE DAY
SHIFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONSIDER WATCHES FOR CENTRAL DOWN EAST
AREAS FOR LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST. ANY LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY PARTIAL CLEARING LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ON MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORT
WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY ALONG WITH THE CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

A RETURN TO COLDER AND FAIR WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. KBGR AND KBHB COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW ARRIVING BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY W/CONDITIONS DROPPING TO
MVFR. 

SHORT TERM: VFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DURING SATURDAY AT
THE CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST TERMINALS BUT VFR SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF
THE DAY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KCAR AND KFVE. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN SNOW. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS THEN
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 650 AM UPDATE: EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL
10 AM FOR THE OUTER ZONE AS WINDS STILL AOA 25 KTS. SEAS WERE
HOLDING AT 5 FT. 44027 HAD SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KT W/GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 AS OF 530 AM. DECIDED TO DROP THE SCA FOR THE INTRA-
COASTAL ZONE. 

FOLLOWED THE NAM12 FOR THE WINDS TODAY W/15-20 KT THIS MORNING
AND THEN DROPPING OFF AS HIGH PRES MOVING OVER THE WATERS. SEAS
WERE AT 5 FT AND HOLDING, BUT EXPECT THE SEAS TO DROP TODAY A
WINDS SUBSIDE. LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY AND THEN INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 
LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS...AND POSSIBLE LOW
END GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 NM OR LESS IN SNOW AND RAIN ON
SATURDAY AND THEN IN SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-
     051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA



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