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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KCAR 021412
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1012 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY THEN CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1010 AM UPDATE...SOME MIST AND FOG CONTINUES TO PERSIST IN PLACES
ALONG WITH A STRATUS DECK HOWEVER CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY
IMPROVING SO ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. ONE AREA
THAT HAS STARTED TO CLEAR OUT IS THE NW SO MADE SOME CHANGES TO
SKY COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS. HOWEVER A LINE OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN INITIAL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT HAS
FORMED OVER S QB AND LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THESE AREAS IN THE NW BY
AROUND MIDDAY. FOR THIS REASON RAISED POPS AND QPF ACROSS THE NORTH FOR
THE LATE MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO ADJUSTED HIGHS FOR
TODAY DOWN BY A COUPLE DEGREES OVER DOWNEAST AREAS DUE TO STRATUS
WHICH SHOULD PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON.



PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT
WINDS...FOG HAS FORMED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...MOST EXTENSIVE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WHERE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH MID MORNING. THE FOG WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH NORTHWEST MAINE LATER TODAY. GENERALLY EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. COULD ALSO
HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN
AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH LOWER 70S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THEN EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS FOLLOW BY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY. BOTH THE GFS40 AND
ECMWF HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS HANDING THIS SCENARIO SO WILL USE
MODEL CONSENSUS USING BOTH MODELS FOR POPS... SKY COVER AND QPF.
FOR TEMPERATURE... DEW POINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS JAMES BAY INTO CENTRAL
QUEBEC PROVINCE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT MONDAY. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS THIS PERIOD AND MAKE ONLY
MINOR MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM IFR TO
VLIFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING THOUGH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/IFR WEDNESDAY. VFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: BASED ON PERFORMANCE WITH BOUNDARY CONDITIONS WILL
USE THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WIND SPEED. FOR WAVES: A SOUTHERLY
FETCH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
THIS FETCH TO GENERATE THE PRIMARY WAVE GROUP (SOUTHERLY 3-4
FEET/7-8 SECONDS) FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ALSO EXPECT
THIS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SECONDARY SOUTHEASTERLY LONG PERIOD WAVE
SYSTEM. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TO BETTER ADJUST WAVES TO BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. WILL USE
INITIALIZE WITH WAVE WATCH III FRIDAY TO END OF PERIOD AND MAKE
NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS. ANOTHER SOUTHERLY FETCH DEVELOPS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.... THIS FETCH IS CONFINED
TO COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SO WILL LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS 10
PERCENT FRIDAY NIGHT TO END OF PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FITZSIMMONS/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/NORCROSS/MIGNONE






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