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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 171027
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
627 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONT SO MOST OF THE
DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THEN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 600 AM EDT...PATCHY FOG CONTINUES WITH A MIX OF STRATOCU 
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DACKS...CATSKILLS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY 
PER SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND ASSIST 
WITH FORMING DIURNALLY DRIVEN CLOUDS LATER THIS MORNING.  MAIN 
UPDATE WAS TO HOURLY GRID VALUES.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT 
WAS JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS THIS SURFACE HIGH 
WEAKENS AND SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT 
ATTEMPTS TO SHARPEN A BIT UPSTREAM AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE THIS FRONT 
CLOSER TO OUR REGION. DUE TO THIS CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...DIURNALLY 
DRIVEN CU/SC SHOULD EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY.  

PER UPSTREAM TEMPS AND FORECAST TRAJECTORIES...OUR FORECAST HIGHS
SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE OBSERVED ON TUESDAY /MAYBE 1-2
DEGREES WARMER/. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. 

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE
REGION...THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL FURTHER ITS FORWARD PROGRESS
INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE THE MAIN UPPER
SUPPORT...SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY JUST EAST OF LAKE
WINNIPEG...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT
TO THE REGION AND TOO FAR REMOVED FOR DIRECT IMPACTS. SO WE WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE DACKS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE 40S.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY
CLOUD COVER. BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
REGION AS CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL OMEGA SUPPORTS LIFT AT
OR BELOW H700 WHERE RH VALUES ARE OVER 90 PERCENT. THIS LIFT
RAPIDLY DISSIPATES SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY SO WE WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY FOR NOW FOR THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...1025MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
CLEARING OUT THE SKIES AS MEAN RH VALUES DROP BACK OR BELOW 30
PERCENT ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO
FALL BACK TO AROUND 0C ACROSS THE DACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION
WITH AROUND +5C FOR THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FROST CONDITIONS ACROSS
MAINLY THE TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY WITH FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR
THE DACKS AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE AS SURFACE HIGH /1028MB/ SLIDES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR. WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE IS FORECAST
WITH A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE TERRAIN AND
LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DURING THE LONG TERM IS LOWER THAN 
AVERAGE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL 
PATTERN BY MON-TUE...AND THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH DIGGING 
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND ANY 
POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. 00Z/17 MODELS HANDLE 
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC FEATURES QUITE DIFFERENTLY...WITH 
THE 00Z/17 GFS AND GEFS SUGGESTING THE TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH A MORE 
POSITIVE TILT...WITH THE SFC FRONT PASSING THROUGH SUN NT-MON...WITH 
ANY POSSIBLE SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND 
COAST...WHILE THE 00Z/17 ECMWF INDICATES A MORE NEUTRAL TILT TO THE 
EVOLVING TROUGH...WITH SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING MUCH CLOSER 
TO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. SO...THE GFS/GEFS WOULD FAVOR A 
ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT SUN NT/EARLY MON...WHILE THE ECMWF 
WOULD SUGGEST A SOAKING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MON-MON NT. AT 
THIS TIME...HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED THE GFS/GEFS MODE...AS THIS MORE 
VIGOROUS WAVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE CHANGED RATHER 
DRASTICALLY FROM RECENT MODEL RUNS.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS...

FRI NT-SAT NT...IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT 
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR QUITE A BIT IN THE 
WAY OF LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...ESP SAT-SAT NT. SO WILL TREND SKY 
CONDITIONS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST AREAS. SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR 
SAT-SAT NT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE A 
COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND SOME OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY 
SQUEEZE OUT THE INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. IT ALSO COULD 
BECOME QUITE BREEZY SAT AFTERNOON...AS A LOW LEVEL JET TRANSLATES 
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S FOR FRI NT 
WITH SOME 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...THEN WARMING TO 
THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS SAT NT. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 
60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF 
ALBANY.

SUN-MON...WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN 
NT...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER ON MON FROM NW TO SE AS THE FRONT PASSES 
THROUGH. SHOULD THE 00Z/17 ECMWF PROVE CORRECT...THEN MON COULD BE 
MUCH WETTER...WITH A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN POSSIBLE. SUN MAX TEMPS 
SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS 
MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S 
IN MOST AREAS FOR SUN NT/MON AM. ON MON...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE 
FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 70S 
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. 
HOWEVER...AGAIN...IF A STEADIER RAIN WERE TO OCCUR...MAX TEMPS COULD 
BE MUCH COOLER.

MON NT-TUE...MUCH COOLER AIR SHOULD INFILTRATE INTO THE REGION FROM 
THE N AND W. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PASSES 
THROUGH...EXPECT ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO OCCUR...MOST 
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION. 
MON NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH TUE 
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S WITHIN THE HUDSON 
VALLEY...TO THE 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME OF THE 
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND A FAIRLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE FOG/LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH DAYBREAK...ESP BETWEEN 08Z-13Z/WED. THE PROBABILITY FOR
FOG/LOW STRATUS AND IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IS LOWEST AT KALB...WHERE
A LIGHT WEST WIND IS PERSISTING. THIS LIGHT WEST WIND MAY KEEP
MOST OF THE FOG JUST EAST OF TERMINAL. THEREFORE DID NOT INCLUDE
MENTION OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. HAVE INCLUDED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
WITH FOG/LOW CIGS ELSEWHERE.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BETWEEN 12Z-13Z/WED...GIVING WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY INTO WED EVENING. SOME
PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 03Z/THU...ESP AT
KGFL.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE FROM THE W/SW AT LESS THAN 6 KT...TRENDING
TOWARD CALM BY DAYBREAK. MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
RESUME BY MID MORNING WED AT 5-10 KT...BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE
ONCE AGAIN TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. 
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. 
THU NIGHT-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO THURSDAY...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND.

DAYTIME MINIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 75 AND
95 PERCENT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMUM IMPACTS
TO THE AREA RIVER AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. 

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 34

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949... 
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM
CLIMATE...IAA/BGM

FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY










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