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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 230544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
143 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR 
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH PERIODS OF 
RAINFALL. THE STEADIEST RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. 
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUN ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH 
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL 
CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 128 AM EDT...UPDATED POPS/WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND TRENDS. STILL A LACK OF RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...SO CUT BACK ON
POPS CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS UPDATE. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS OCCURRING
RATHER SOUTH FORM AROUND THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTHWARD...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE THERE IS A BREAK.

BANDS OF RAIN CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM EAST TO WEST WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
EMBEDDED BANDS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE BERKSHIRES...TACONICS... AND
MID HUDSON VALLEY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. 

A DOUBLE BARREL SURFACE LOW IS EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND TO JUST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS
SLOWLY DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING PLENTY OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AROUND
THE UPPER LOW AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. 850 HPA EASTERLY WIND
ANOMALIES REACH 3-5 STD ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE TONIGHT...SHOWING AN
IMPRESSIVE PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION. SFC WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND
10 TO 15 MPH...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS
AIR IS FUNNELED DOWN BETWEEN THE TERRAIN. RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT TO MODERATE IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

WITH CLOUDY AND DANK CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...TEMPS WON/T DROP OFF
TOO MUCH FROM THEIR CURRENT READINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO
MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ON THURSDAY...THE STACKED LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE FROM JUST
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TO SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR AREA. PERIODS OF STEADY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE DAY WILL
TURN INTO SHOWERS TOWARDS EVENING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL
DUE TO THE CLOUDS/RAIN...WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST IN SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS BETWEEN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY AS
WELL...AS THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. LOWS
ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND HIGHS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

CLOUDS MAY FINALLY START TO BREAK UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS. MIN TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY UNSETTLED 
CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE 
START OF NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE COASTAL LOW AND DEEP 
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING NORTHEAST TO THE CANADIAN 
MARITIMES...WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW 
REGIME. A POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL QUICKLY DIVE 
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW SATURDAY AND 
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST 
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TO FAVORABLE UPSLOPE AREAS ACROSS THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN. ENOUGH FORCING LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE TO MENTION WIDELY 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE 
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE 
ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE START OF 
NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS 
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE 
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALONG WITH SEASONABLY WARM 
TEMPERATURES...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING 70 ACROSS 
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY. 

LONG TERM GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE HANDLING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM 
AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE 
COUNTRY AND MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT 
WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY TO 
ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES...WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING 
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT 
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SLOWS THE FRONTAL 
PROGRESSION AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI 
RIVER VALLEY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON 
VALLEY...BEFORE WARMING FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE MID 50S 
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE 
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

AS OF 130 AM...PRIMARY RAINFALL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW 
IS NOW ORIENTED EAST TO WEST AND WAS AFFECTING THE KALB/KPSF TAF 
SITES. THE BAND HAD ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH OF THE KPOU TAF SITE AND 
HAD NOT YET REACHED THE KGFL TAF SITE. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO 
SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD AND BECOME ORIENTED MORE NORTHEAST TO 
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MVFR TO 
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 
16Z/17Z...THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING 
AT 00Z FRIDAY. 

AT KPOU...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF 
PERIOD...POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW 
SHIFTS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. 

AT KGFL...VFR VSBYS/MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 08Z...THEN 
DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 08Z AS THE 
RAIN BAND SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KGFL AREA. DURING THURSDAY 
AFTERNOON...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 10 TO 14 
KTS...WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW. PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL 
OCCUR AS WELL...ESP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...RH VALUES 
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...MAINLY OVER 70 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. 
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 5 TO 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS...WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 

PERIODS OF RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST 
RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE 
IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH FRIDAY...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF 
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES ACROSS THE 
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHERN VERMONT. 
DUE TO RECENT DRY WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO 
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO 
RIVER FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THERE MAY BE SOME 
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE 
LOCATIONS...BUT THIS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL IN IMPACT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS











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