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830 
FXUS61 KALY 160346
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1145 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL END OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...UNTREATED ROAD 
SURFACES WILL LIKELY TURN TO BLACK ICE. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON 
WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES 
WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1145 PM EDT...SNOW WAS ENDING QUICKLY ACROSS THE MOHAWK 
VALLEY. WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE GREATER CAPITAL 
REGION...WITH PRESUMABLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE 
HILLTOWNS AND ESPECIALLY ADIRONDACKS. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WAS FALLING ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH COULD 
LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO.

SO ANYWHERE FROM A COATING TO 2 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS...2 TO 5 
INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ADIRONDACKS. 

OUR BIG CONCERN IS THAT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S...AND 
MANY ROADS WET OR SLUSHY...UNTREATED ROADWAYS WILL BECOME ICY. WE 
HAVE ISSUE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS ADDRESSING THIS CONCERN. 

SO FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST UPDATED THE TRENDS AND SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED 
SOME ACCUMULATIONS. DID LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES 
BASED ON THE FACT THAT WE WERE COUPLE DEGREES COLDER THAN THE 
PREVIOUS FORECAST.    


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN. 

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED 
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE 
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO 
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS 
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES 
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND 
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS 
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING 
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.  

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE 
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY 
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY 
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY 
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING 
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE 
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY 
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN 
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE 
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE 
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK 
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH 
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY 
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH 
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUSTAINED
15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH 09Z. COLD AIR IS
CAUSING PTYPE CHANGES FROM RA TO PL AND SN. ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION AFTER 06-08Z.  EXPECT MAINLY MVFR
WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR FROM 00Z UNTIL 06Z. 

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL RETURN TO VFR AFTER 06Z - 08Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. 
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. 
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. 
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. 
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. 
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT. 

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA 
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE 
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WIDESPREAD RAIN OF A HALF INCH TO INCH AND A HALF ALONG WITH SNOW
MELT HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ALONG SOME RIVER POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AS SOME PLACES COULD REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT RIVERBANK.
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF COULD OCCUR INTO THE WALLOOMSAC AND HOOSIC
RIVERS WITH WATER RISES APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE PRECIPITATION
COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE 
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM 
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/NAS
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/VTK/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS









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