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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 031424
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
924 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE 
AREA...WITH SNOW ARRIVING BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL CHANGE 
TO A WINTRY MIX TONIGHT...BEFORE ENDING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE 
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON 
WEDNESDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG IT 
KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION 
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 924 AM EST...HIGH CLOUDS ARE ALREADY MOVING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE QUIET AND DRY...THE LATEST 3KM HRRR
GUIDANCE SUGGEST LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS BY AROUND 3-4 PM. IT
SHOULD REACH THE CAPITAL REGION AND HUDSON VALLEY BY 4-5 PM...AND
LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA AREA...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY AROUND 5-6
PM OR SO. MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A COATING OF ACCUMULATION BY
SUNSET...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS
MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF.

LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH AND HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 20S TO AROUND 30. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE RIGHT THROUGH
THE EVENING THANKS TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ALL GUIDANCE CONSISTENT ON STRONG WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT...LOW
LEVEL JET ENERGY AND FRONTOGENESIS CONTRIBUTING TO A MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WARM
LAYER ALOFT LOOK LIKE IT WILL GET AS FAR NORTH AS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY TO AROUND THE MA/VT BORDER...AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THAT
LINE WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...WHILE AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE LINE WILL SEE A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW. SNOW
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE... AND ANY ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE
AT MOST 1 OR 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH...BUT MANY AREAS WILL SEE A TENTH
OF AN INCH OR LESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TONIGHT...IF THAT...THEN SLOWLY RISE LATER IN THE NIGHT.

PRECIPITATION ENDS RAPIDLY AS THE FORCING SHIFTS EAST QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND AS THE COLD FRONT BUILDS EAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AND FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES INCREASES...INTERVALS OF
CLOUDS AND SUN WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 3OS TO LOWER
40S...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MIXING WE GET WITH THE WINDS...HOW
MUCH SUN...AND IF COLD FROZEN SNOW COVERED GROUND COULD LIMIT THE
SURFACE WARMING.

A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY IS STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND PROVIDE SOME MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENESIS TO
PUSH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION BACK UP TO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CT. THERE ARE STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES AS TO HOW FAR NORTH ANY AREAS OF SNOW
CAN GET...SO INCLUDING CHANCES TO JUST NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN VT. THERE COULD BE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN SOUTHERN
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS TRAILING SYSTEM
SHOULD EXIT THURSDAY MORNING BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER AND COLD
ADVECTION WILL DEEPEN. SO HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S...SOME TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO FEATURE AN ABSENCE OF 
BIG STORMS...WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATING BACK TO NEAR 
NORMAL.

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM A 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WHILE IT 
WILL BE DRY...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO START THE DAY. 
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY LATE IN THE 
DAY...INDUCING A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...WITH THE 
COLD AIR MASS REMAINING IN PLACE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL 
BELOW NORMAL WITH TEENS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOWER 20S IN THE 
VALLEYS. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH 
PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE 
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY...AS ISOLATED TO 
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND 
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. TIMING FOR SNOW 
SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR 
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADIRONDACKS. WITH A MILDER SOUTHWEST 
FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND BY WARMING 
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS. THE TROUGH SHOULD SWEEP 
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH 
DRY CONDITIONS. THE AIR MASS IN WAKE OF THE TROUGH IS SIMILAR...SO 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SATURDAY/S READINGS. 
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE 
NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING MORE SNOW 
SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
EASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO
EAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATING
FROM VFR TO IFR. AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN...SNOW WILL CHANGE
TO A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUED
IFR CONDITIONS. ANY MIXED PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING SOUTHERLY
AROUND 5-10 KTS. SOME HIGHER GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY AT KALB STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA TO -RA. 
WED NT-THU: MODERATE TO HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SN KALB
NORTH...WITH LIKELY SN AT KPOU. 
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5
DAYS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND 
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO 
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO 
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST 
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST 
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
     082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST 
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST 
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS



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