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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 230553
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1253 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE 
REGION ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED 
BY MILDER WEATHER ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER WARM FRONT 
WILL PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY 
MILD WEATHER FOR A NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH 
THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE 
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1250 AM EST...THE WINTER WX ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE
MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN BERKS
NORTHWARD INTO SRN VT...THE LAKE GEORGE NRN SARATOGA REGION...AND
THE SRN DACKS UNTIL 5 AM FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING
REPORTED NORTH OF THE REGION WITH PLAIN RAIN...AS A WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE FOCUSES THE LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE REGION. THE KALB 00Z
SOUNDING NICELY SHOWS THE WARM NOSE BETWEEN 875 HPA AND 775 HPA.
THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL KEEP THE SPOTTY SHOWERS GOING TO THE
SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY AREA UNTIL 09Z-12Z. THE POPS AND WX WERE
ATTEMPTED TO BE RETOOLED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND A PCPN-
THICKNESS TOOL. IT APPEARS THAT A SUFFICIENT TEMP/DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION...COMBINED WITH GROUND TEMPS NEAR FREEZING DUE TO OUR
RECENT COLD SPELL...HAVE LARGELY CONTRIBUTED TO THE REPORTS OF ICE
FORMATION DESPITE TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPS WILL RISE
VERY SLOWLY INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S THROUGH DAYBREAK. ANY ICE
ACCRETIONS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A COATING TO A STRAY TENTH. SLEET
ACCUMS WILL BE A COATING TO A COUPLE OF TENTHS IN A FEW SPOTS.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE 
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS... 
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING 
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE 
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING 
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN 
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST 
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON 
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED 
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE 
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND 
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL 
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST 
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND 
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW 
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE 
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE 
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF 
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN 
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR 
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.  
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR 
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE 
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH 
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT 
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR 
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE 
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS 
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND 
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO 
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE 
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR 
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR 
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT 
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION 
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH 
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT 
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA 
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT 
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL 
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU 
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD 
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK 
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME 
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE 
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS 
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN 
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL 
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE
IN THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MIXED PRECIP
OF -IP/-RA FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL NORTH AND EAST. THE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR CIGS BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN AT KPOU...BUT
NOT MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED THERE. THE BEST CHC OF A PERIOD OF
-RAPL IS AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN. THE CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MIXED PCPN. KALB WILL HAVE SOME
-RA AROUND AFT 06Z WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS PSBL TIL ARND 10Z.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT ALL THE TAF SITES TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING THRU 
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR 
     NYZ032-033-038>043-048>050-054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR 
     MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR 
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







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