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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 242351
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
751 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COASTAL LOW THAT HAS IMPACTED THE REGION FOR MOST OF 
THIS WEEK WILL PULL AWAY TONIGHT.  A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND 
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.  
THIS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG WITH BRISK AND 
COOLER WEATHER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM EDT...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND SKY COVER. 

IR AND 11U-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW EROSION
OF CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW-
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE HUNG TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE COASTAL LOW LINGERED ACROSS THE
REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...BRINGING WITH IT DRIER AIR AND CLEARING
SKIES. COMBINED WITH THE LESSENING INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW EXPECT SKY COVER TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM
WEST TO EAST...BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH EVEN
POCKETS OF CLEARING POSSIBLE AFTER A BATCH OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
QUICKLY SKIRT ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK PIECE OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RIDGING IN ACROSS THE REGION
WITH CLEARING SKIES...A SLACKENING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD AND
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL LOW...EXPECT AREAS OF PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE ACROSS VALLEY AREAS AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND BERKSHIRES/SOUTHERN VERMONT
WHERE TERRAIN-ENHANCED DECOUPLING OCCURS.

LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR LOWS AROUND 40 IN THE
IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET DYNAMICS MOVES INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK. HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE. SOME LAKE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION MAY ASSIST WITH
SHALLOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE RATHER LOW.
SO THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS
OF THE DECK WITH 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS INTO NW CT KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AT THE PRESENT TIME. AS MORE PEAKS OF SUN ARE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MIXING POTENTIAL...WE WILL WARM
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS /PERHAPS LOWER 60S
FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS/ AND LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SLIDES WELL EAST OF THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED /AT BEST/. HOWEVER...THE COLD
UPPER LOW AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST /MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AT OR BELOW 0C BY
MORNING SO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN MAY EXPERIENCE SOME MIXING OF SNOW. 

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WILL BE TRANSVERSING THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE TERRAIN. THE
OTHER METEOROLOGICAL ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS
TAP INTO THE MID-UPR 30KT RANGE SO A RATHER BRISK DAY IS IN THE
FORECAST. WITH THE CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOW-MID 50S. 

SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW TRACKS WELL EAST WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST PER NCEP MODEL CONSENSUS. A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
SHOWER TREND DURING THE EVENING ALONG WITH IMPROVING SKY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. MOS VALUES ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE /WITHIN 1-2 DEGREES/ AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR 
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...BUT BECOMING UNSETTLED BY MIDWEEK WITH 
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE 
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD 
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER 
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF 
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP 
ACROSS THE REGION TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE 
NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
FORECAST AREA AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE 
MID-HUDSON VALLEY TO REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING 
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF 
THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR A 
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY 
RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE 
IN THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE INDICATED CHANCE POPS 
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

OUTSIDE OF TUESDAY...IN WHICH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 
60S TO NEAR 70...HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL 
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S...BEFORE TRENDING COOLER 
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOW 
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT 
ALSO TREND COOLER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK RANGING FROM THE MID 30S 
TO LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE MAINLY A VFR TAF PERIOD...HOWEVER SOME MVFR AND IFR IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY TONIGHT.

THE STORM WAS FINALLY COMPLETELY PULLING AWAY BUT IN ITS AWAKE WAS
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE IS A LITTLE WIND OFF THE DECK
FROM A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...BUT THE DILEMMA IS HOW MUCH OF
THE WIND WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BIT OF INVERSIONS AT ALL THE SIGHTS
TONIGHT BUT NOT THAT STRONG. STILL SOME FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AT
KGFL. WE KEPT IFR FOG THERE AFTER 06Z. 

ELSEWHERE...USE THE MIFG (SHALLOW FOG AT KPOU AND KALB) AS THERE
MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT THICKER FOG. HOWEVER...THIS
IS A FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE FOG.

AT KPSF...ENOUGH OF A BREEZE MIGHT PREVENT ANY FOG...BUT CIGS
COULD LOWER AGAIN OVERNIGHT. DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
PLACE IT IN THE TAFS (AFTER THE IN ITAL MVFR CIGS WHICH WERE STILL
OCCURRING). WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

AFTER 12Z...ALL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT TO NORTHWEST GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS
TONIGHT...TURNING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS ON SATURDAY.

A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MIGHT BRING A FEW SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF
THE DAY...MAINLY AT KGFL (VCSH). 


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE COOL AND WET
PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO MOST OF SATURDAY. FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAINLY ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30MPH EXPECTED. 

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ..AND REMAIN RATHER ELEVATED DURING THE WEEKEND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 45 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST. 
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY 
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO 
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS 
WEEKEND. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS. 

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE 
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.     

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/JPV
NEAR TERM...IRL/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV







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