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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 250550
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
150 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY...AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE APPALACHIANS. MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WILL
BE UNSETTLED. TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE 
GRADUALLY INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LARGE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
MAY DRIFT EAST LATE IN THE WEEK WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT...
RELAXING GRADIENT ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES 
OVER THE REGION.  CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES 
WARMER AND HAVE ADJUSTED UPWARD THE HOURLY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.  
FURTHERMORE...HAVE ADJUSTED UPWARD THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS 
SLIGHTLY PER THE LATEST 2M TEMPS IN THE HRRR AND THE RECENTLY  
UPGRADED LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE. 

THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AS MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY STORM 
TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.  AT 
THIS TIME...ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAINS WEST OF OUR REGION TO KEEP MOST 
OF THE DAY DRY.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE TRANSPORT...INCREASING 
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND ATLANTIC ENTRAINMENT WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS 
AND/OR PERIODS OF RAIN MAINLY AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.  PER THE LATEST 
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A RATHER PROGRESSIVE 
SO MOST OF THE WET WEATHER WILL BE JUST ABOUT TO EXIT OUR NEW 
ENGLAND COUNTIES BY 12Z SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT. THE 1ST CDFNT PUSHES EAST
INTO NEW ENG EARLY SAT...AND THE MAIN FOCUS BCMS THE 500HPA CUTOFF
DROPPING SE FM THE UPR GRTLKS. A SNCDRY CDFNT IS PUSHING INTO THE
UPR GRTLKS. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE -SHRA DRNG MUCH OF THE MID
DAY AS WELL IS SOME SUNNY INTERVALS AS THE RGN IS BTWN SYSTEMS SAT.
THE NAM IS MOST DISTINCT IN SHOWING THIS SEPARATION...BUT ITS
THERE IN THE GFS..AND LESS SO ON THE GEM. 

BUT BY LATE SAT AFTN THE CUTOFF AND A MUCH STRONGER CDFNT MV
CROSS THE RGN...TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA. CAPE VALUES
INCR TO 100-200 IN NAM/GFS. NAM HAS LI OF -1 IN SE LATE SAT. WORTH
MENTION OF ISOLD TRW IN SE.

SAT NT BRISK N-NW FLOW SETS UP IN WAKE OF DEPARTING CDFNT WITH
CAA INTO THE RGN INTO MON. ALL THE GUID HAS CUTOFF DEPARTING WELL
OFFSHORE...AS OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP OVER EASTERN NA...WITH CUT OFFS
500 MILES E OF NEW ENG...AND IN THE GRT PLAINS...W/RIDGING FM
500HPA HIGH SE TWRD FLORIDA. MOVEMENT OF SYSTEMS GRINDS TO A HALT
INTO MON NT. 

AT THE SFC LARGE HIGH OVER HUDSON'S BAY RIDGES S INTO GRTLKS AND
SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD. RGN REMAINS IN COOL NORTHERLY FLOW. WHILE THE
BIG PICTURE IS CLEAR THE AMNT OF CLOUDINESS VARIES SUN AND MONDAY
AMONG THE MDLS. OVERVIEW IS A VRBL CLOUDY DAY SUN WITH DCRG
CLOUDS MON. GFS HAS NUMEROUS CLOUDS WHERE TRRN ENHANCES BOTH
CLOUDS AND ISOLD -SHR OVER HIR TRRN.

TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE NR NORMAL...TO SLIGHTLY BLO. 

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD IS LOW CONFIDENCE...AS WE
WILL BE TRACKING A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL LOW EMERGING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD. SEVERAL DIFFERENT
PIECES OF ENERGY WILL INFLUENCE THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO DEPICT OUR REGION BEING
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN EASTERLY FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED ACROSS QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS WILL MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHEN PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW EVENTUALLY MAKES IT INTO OUR AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME OF
THE MOISTURE TO BE SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH...OR FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS...BUT FOR NOW WILL
MENTION CHANCE POPS STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT LASTING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD.

REGARDLESS OF RAINFALL...IT DOES LOOK LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL 
CONTINUE TO BE COOL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A PERSISTENT 
EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH A MARINE INFLUENCE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS 
FRIDAY...THEN QUICKLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT.

COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS 
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  WITH SUNRISE...WIND 
MAGNITUDES WILL INCREASE TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS WITH A 
DIRECTIONAL TREND TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.

SYSTEM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY APPROACHES WITH LOWERING 
CIGS THIS EVENING...AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASES.  AT THIS 
TIME WE WILL PLACE A PROB30 WITH MVFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY OVERNIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED TO BELOW 30 PERCENT TOMORROW...

RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE EXPIRED ACROSS THE REGION AS RH VALUES ARE
BEGINNING TO RISE AND WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN DIMINISHING. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED...WITH RH VALUES
RISING TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT TONIGHT AND WINDS DIMINISHING TO UNDER
5 MPH.

FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AS WE GO INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF 
OUR NEXT UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 15 
TO 25 PERCENT FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BUT WITH A SOUTH TO 
SOUTHEAST WIND LIGHTER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY AVERAGING AROUND 10 
MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 POSSIBLE. NO FIRE WEATHER 
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY 
SATURDAY. THE SET UP FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY CONDITIONS FOR SHOWERS FOR 
MOST AREAS TO REACH A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS PRESENT OVER 
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE 
DAYS. 

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. 
AT THIS POINT WE ARE PROJECTING MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 
AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS. THIS RAINFALL AMOUNT SHOULD HAVE 
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. 

LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST 
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED.  

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/LFM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/LFM
HYDROLOGY...LFM







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