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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 282140
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
540 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CANCELLED. RAIN WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDER STILL IN PARTS OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
SPINNING EAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM. CURRENT FORECAST
STILL REFLECTS CURRENT TRENDS SO VERY LITTLE TO ADJUST THROUGH
THIS EVENING EXCEPT TO TAKE OUT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY
RAIN WORDING.

SOME PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK...BUT UPSTREAM
CONDITIONS AND THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT OVER OUR REGION IN THE
WAKE OF ALL THE RAIN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS MAY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY THROUGH DAYBREAK. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD BE STEADY ALL
NIGHT...SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
PERSISTING IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO...NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...SOME UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE 
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL 
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO 
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A 
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.  
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT 
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO 
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE 
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS 
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF 
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID 
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO 
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH 
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY 
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE 
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE FLYING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER 
THE NEXT 6-10 HOURS THANKS TO A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE 
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK...THE
CATSKILLS...AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT 20-30 MPH. WE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER AT
ALL THE TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THAT HIT A TERMINAL SITE.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP...WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR THIS EVENING. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR FOR ALL SITES. BY LATE TONIGHT...CLOUDS SHOULD
SCATTER OUT AND WINDS WILL START TO DIMINISH SO LOCALIZED FOG IS
A THREAT AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME
STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH ENHANCED WORDING IN FORECAST FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.

THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTAL ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WITH
UP TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. AREAS WHICH HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED A
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







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