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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 182128
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
428 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY MOVE 
EASTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING SOUTHWARD 
AROUND THIS DEPARTING LOW WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE REGION THROUGH 
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF SUN COULD DEVELOP BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND SOUTHEAST CANADA MAY BRING SOME CLEARING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN BY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 4 PM EST...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION...AFTER SOME OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCURRED
ACROSS SOME VALLEY AREAS...ESP WITHIN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

WE EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL MOST OF
THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW BREAKS AT TIMES
WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. AS THE WINDS
WITHIN THE H925-H850 LAYER DECREASE...THE ASSOCIATED DOWNSLOPING
WILL CEASE...AND THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY BREAKS IN VALLEY
AREAS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT.

REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
OCCURRING FROM THE SHALLOW CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND MOHAWK VALLEY. CLOUD TOP TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN
THE -8 TO -10 C RANGE...SO EXPECT ANY SNOW TO BE RATHER GRAINY IN
CONSISTENCY...AND NOT VERY EFFICIENT AT ACCUMULATING...DESPITE
SOME REDUCED VSBYS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW GRAINS SHOULD CONTINUE
INTERMITTENTLY OVERNIGHT...AND MAY EXPAND EASTWARD INTO PORTIONS
OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SOUTHERN VT AND BERKSHIRES...ESP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR
GREATER FORCING LIFT TO DEVELOP. ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMS THAT OCCUR
OVERNIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM A COATING...TO LESS THAN AN
INCH...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MINOR ACCUMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA.

SINCE WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO HANG TOUGH OVERNIGHT...HAVE WENT A
LITTLE ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR FORECAST MIN TEMPS...WITH
GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 20S EXPECTED IN MOST VALLEY AREAS FROM
ALBANY SOUTH...AND LOWER TO MID 20S IN VALLEY TO THE N AND W.
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN WARMER MINS OCCUR. HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD MAINLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 20S...WITH SOME TEENS
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

BRISK WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...ESP
WITHIN THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND
BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS OF UP TO...OR A BIT OVER 30 MPH MAY
OCCUR THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...YET AGAIN...CLOUDS MAY WIN OUT...ESP FROM ALBANY AND
POINTS N AND W. A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE...AND SFC TROUGH WILL
SETTLE SOUTHWARD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CLOUDS AND SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY ITS PASSAGE...ESP
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO SETTLE
SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THIS TROUGH...BUT MIGHT TAKE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST AREAS...AS THE INVERSION LEVEL LOWERS
IMMEDIATELY IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...AND INITIALLY TRAPS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUN
APPEAR TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY LATE
IN THE DAY...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY/SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...AGAIN MAINLY LATER IN THE DAY.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID
30S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SOME
TEMPS MAY EVEN FALL A BIT DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
SHALLOW...LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS...BEFORE HOLDING
STEADY OR RISING SLIGHTLY AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

FRI NT-SAT...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SHOULD SEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HAVE INDICATED GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM N TO S FRI NT...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR SAT
MORNING. BY SAT AFTERNOON...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM THE S AND E...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. FRI NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S IN MOST
VALLEYS...WITH TEENS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT.

SAT NT...AS A SFC HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS SE CANADA...A LIGHT
SE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO CONTINUE INCREASING.
ALSO...AS THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE ASCENDING
TERRAIN...SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS COULD
DEVELOP FOR AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY LATE AT NIGHT...ESP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SE CATSKILLS.
SAT NT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 20S WITH TEENS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...BUT EVEN COLDER MINS COULD OCCUR IF
CLOUDS ARRIVE MORE SLOWLY THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS 
IMPACTING ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE EARLY TO MID PORTION OF 
NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL 
ENSEMBLES...GFS...ECMWF...CANADIAN AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...AND A SFC 
ANTICYCLONE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM QUEBEC.  SOME LIGHT SNOW OR 
ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL 
REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN GREENS...TACONICS...AND 
BERKSHIRES.  H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE -5C TO -7C RANGE.  TEMPS WILL 
BE NEAR NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE DEC WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M30S 
IN THE VALLEYS...AND M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  THE SFC 
HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING 
OVER THE NRN-CNTRL PLAINS WITH A DEVELOPING UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH.  MEANWHILE...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING 
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A COLD AND DRY NIGHT IS 
EXPECTED WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH 
LATE.  LOWS WILL BEN IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE ADIRONDACK 
PARK...AND SRN GREENS.  BY MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTS N/NE FROM THE 
MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A BROAD LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING 
OVER THE CONUS.  CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE DAY...AND 
SOME OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL COMMENCE BY THE  AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY 
FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH.  THE COLUMN WILL BE QUITE DRY TO 
START...SO A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW AND RAIN IS POSSIBLE.  THE BETTER 
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K SFC DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL AT NIGHT 
ACCORDING TO GFS/ECMWF/GEFS.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE 
ECMWF AND CAN GGEM WITH THE ONSET OF THE WARM ADVECTION PCPN.  HIGHS 
ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM U20S TO M30S NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL 
DISTRICT TO MID 30S TO L40S SOUTH AND EAST.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE BETTER QG LIFT DUE TO THE WARM 
ADVECTION IMPACTS THE FCST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.  SNOW AND RAIN MAY 
TRANSITION TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX...AS THE WEDGE OF SUBFREEZING AREA 
BELOW H850 ERODES.  THE COASTAL LOW DOES NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH WELL 
SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND WITH A PRIMARY LOW OVER THE UPPER 
MIDWEST AND THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY.  THE SFC WAVE MOVES FURTHER 
DOWNSTREAM...AND ANY LIGHT MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN NORTH AND WEST 
OF THE CAPITAL REGION SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN BY THE LATE MORNING.  
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE THE MID 20S OVER THE DACKS TO LOWER TO 
MID 30S FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR SOUTH AND EAST.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY 
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M30S TO L40S.  

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS... THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH REVS UP AND 
TURNS NEGATIVELY TILTED TUE NIGHT. SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGGING AROUND 
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HELPS ANOTHER SFC CYCLONE FORM OVER THE 
CAROLINAS TUE NIGHT.  THERE MAYBE A BRIEF LULL IN THE PCPN BEFORE 
THIS NEXT WAVE RACES TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.  AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE SETS UP OVER THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE 
COASTAL WAVE LOOKS TO TAKE AN INLAND TRACK ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO 
FLOOD INTO MOST OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  STRONG QG OMEGA 
OCCURS DUE TO STRONG CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE INTENSIFYING AND 
DEEPENING WAVE...AS IT MOVES TOWARDS NYC BY WED AFTERNOON.  THE H850 
WINDS INCREASE TO 35-50+ KTS FROM THE E/SE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  IT 
COULD BE QUITE WINDY...AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS POTENTIALLY TO 975 HPA 
OR BY EARLY WED EVENING...ESPECIALLY FROM THEN HUDSON RIVER VALLEY 
EASTWARD.  A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND COULD EVEN FORM...IF THE 
WAVE TRACKS ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH 
THE GEFS MEAN HAS THE WAVE AS FAR WEST AT THE KBUF-KROC CORRIDOR.  
PERIODS OF RAIN... POSSIBLY HEAVY COULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT IF THE 
TRACK IS FURTHER EAST IT COULD BE SNOW AND RAIN FOR A LARGER POTION 
OF THE AREA.  HIGHS ON CHRISTMAS EVE LOOKS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 
M40S TO L50S SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPITAL REGION...AND U30S TO L40S.  
CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS THE STORM DEEPENS POTENTIALLY TO BELOW 
970 HPA OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC.  MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE 
REGION FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF 
THE REGION.  ANY ACCUMS LOOKS TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...EXCEPT FOR 
PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS AND SRN GREENS...BUT IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO GET 
INTO EXACT SNOW ACCUMS.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S CHRISTMAS 
EVE...AND 30S TO L40S ON CHRISTMAS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 
FRIDAY. 

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING AWAY VERY SLOWLY...BUT 
CLOUDS COULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.  

AT 1245 PM EST...WE WERE STILL DEALING WITH LOW MVFR CIGS AT KPSF 
AND MVFR CIGS AT KALB. WE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR 
BY 00Z AT KALB AND HIGH MVFR AT KPSF...BUT CIGS LIKELY PERSISTING. 
AT KGFL...CIGS MIGHT ACTUALLY DIP BACK TO MVFR AFTER 02Z. AT 
KPOU...VFR CIGS LOOK TO BECOME SCATTERED BY 00Z DUE TO DOWNSLOPING 
WINDS OF THE CATSKILLS...AND WE EXPECT SCT CONDITIONS THROUGH 
FRIDAY. 

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...WE ANTICIPATE ALL THE TAFS SITES TO BE VFR...SCT 
AT KPOU...WITH CIGS ABOVE THE 3000 FOOT THRESHOLD AT THE OTHER TAF 
SITES.   

THE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25-30 KTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING...AVERAGING AROUND 5-10 KTS AT ALL THE TAF SITES FROM A
NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...FZRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL







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