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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 301728
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ONE TODAY WILL GENERATE WIDELY 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF 
THE CAPITAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONGER ONE WILL PRODUCE MORE 
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. UNSETTLED 
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT...CU/STRATO-CU ARE FORMING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BEING REACHED OR
SLIGHTLY SURPASSED. NO SHOWERS INDICATED ON RADAR AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...AND SLIGHTLY
INCREASING DYNAMICS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. DYNAMICS INCREASE
A BIT FURTHER AROUND SUNSET...SO AREAL COVERAGE MAY NOT INCREASE
UNTIL AFTER 5 OR 6 PM. WILL KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER
ACROSS FAR NW AREAS...INCLUDING THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE
STRONGER DYNAMICS MAY OVERCOME LIMITED INSTABILITY.

FOR AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY...JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE ANOTHER 2-4 DEGREES OR SO FROM CURRENT
LEVELS...REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS MAY ONLY REACH THE LOWER/MID 60S
AS CLOUDS INCREASE AND SHOWERS DEVELOP. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING 
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD 
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES 
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER 
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL 
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE 
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL 
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH 
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT 
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA 
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST 
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH 
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY 
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST 
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND 
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY 
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED 
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN 
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S 
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN 
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS 
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH 
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL 
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT 
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT 
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE 
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN 
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR 
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND AT LEAST INTO 
THE EVENING AT ALL THE TAFS.

THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE TAF 
SITES THIS AFTERNOON...ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE LIFTING TO THE 
NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION. 

THE CHANCE OF ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING ANY TAF IS SO LOW 
(AROUND 10 PERCENT) THAT WE DID NOT ASSIGN EVEN A VCSH TO ANY OF 
THEM. 

THERE WILL BE SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FEET (4000 FEET AGL AT 
KPSF). 

THE SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST 
UNDER 10KTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON....LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND 
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS THURSDAY. 

TONIGHT...ANY CU DEVELOPMENT WILL INITIALLY DISSIPATE...BUT THERE 
COULD BE SOME HIGH LEFTOVER CLOUDS AROUND.

IT LOOKS AS IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CLOUDS TO PREVENT THE FORMATION 
OF RADIATIONAL FOG. THAT IS HOW WE PLAYED IT FOR NOW.  

LATER OVERNIGHT...A MORE POTENT SHORT...CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE GREAT 
LAKES...IS FORECAST TO BRING A BETTER SHOT AT MORE CONCENTRATED 
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR REGION AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. 
FOR NOW...INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF 
THUNDERSTORMS OCCASIONALLY DROPPING CONDITIONS INTO THE MVFR 
THRESHOLD (BOTH VISIBILITY AND CIGS)...EVERYWHERE BUT KPOU. AT 
KPOU...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING CONDITIONS TO 
MVFR WAS TOO LOW (20 PERCENT/VERSUS 30-44 PERCENT AT THE OTHER 
SITES) TO INCLUDE...SO DID NOT AT THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX. 
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY 
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE 
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







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