000
FXUS61 KALY 180558
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
158 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT 
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE 
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR 
THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY 
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM...RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE 
SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND BERKSHIRE/LITCHFIELD 
COUNTIES. PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED DRY CONDITIONS SO HAVE UPDATED 
TO INCLUDE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THAT REGION. HAVE ALSO 
UPDATED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.
  

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM TODAY/S SHOWERS AND 
STORMS...AS WELL AS FROM WET SOIL FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...HAVE 
SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH 
GENERALLY 50S EXPECTED...WITH SOME LOWER 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS 
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE MAIN SFC FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER...INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THE TIME THE FRONT
PASSES...SO ALTHOUGH SHOWERS SEEM POSSIBLE...THE PROSPECTS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ANY STRONG ONES...SEEMS LOW. FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GREATER INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. SB CAPES ARE
FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY 1000-1500 J/KG BASED FROM THE NAM ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WESTERN MA...NW CT...AND THE SE CATSKILLS.
THE NAM SEEMED TO HANDLE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
BETTER THAN THE GFS FOR TODAY/S CONVECTION. SO...EXPECT AT LEAST
SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY...AND
PERHAPS INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN VT...WHERE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH
ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS...AND LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR WILL BE A BIT LESS THAN TODAY...SO SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY ALSO
BE SLIGHTLY LESS. HOWEVER...PWAT/S ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHER. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORM
CELLS AND/OR BACK BUILDING COULD OCCUR FOR AREAS S AND E OF
ALBANY...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. SO...AT THE
VERY LEAST...SOME PONDING OF WATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AS WELL...ESPECIALLY SINCE
THE GROUND REMAINS SO WET FROM RECENT RAINFALL. FOR MAX
TEMPS...GENERALLY TOOK BLEND MET/MAV MOS...WITH MID 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...AND GENERALLY LOWER/MID 70S TO
THE NORTH...WITH MAINLY 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT.

TUE NT-WED NT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUE
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE. MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE RAIN ENDS BY WED AM.
HOWEVER...THE 12Z/NAM HINTS THAT A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT...ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE SE THIRD OF FORECAST AREA WELL INTO WED MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...SINCE OTHER SOURCES OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DO NOT INDICATE
THIS...HAVE GENERALLY INDICATED DRY CONDITIONS FOR WED.
HOWEVER...FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE SHOULD ADDITIONAL
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST THIS POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TUE NT
MINS TO FALL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60 IN MOST AREAS...WITH WED
MAXES REACHING THE LOWER/MID 70S IN MOST VALLEYS AND 65-70 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME WARMER MAXES COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD SKIES CLEAR OUT. FOR WED
NT...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALONG WITH COOL
TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL ON THU AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES. RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ENSURE MORE
SEASONABLE WARMTH FOR FRI AND SAT...AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUN-MON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE FOR SAT-MON...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY OCCUR SUN-MON.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS 
MORNING...WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY WORKS SOUTHWARD NEAR KALB. 
NOT MUCH FOG POTENTIAL AT KALB/KPOU...AND IT APPEARS KGFL MAY ESCAPE 
WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF IFR SINCE A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND 
HAS DEVELOPED AND CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AFTER HAVING SOME 
FOG EARLIER IN THE EVENING. WILL MENTION TEMPO FOR MVFR VSBY FOR NOW 
AND MONITOR OBS AND TRENDS FOR KGFL. THICK FOG WITH VLIFR/LIFR 
CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AT KPSF...AND SINCE THE SURFACE 
BOUNDARY IS NORTH OF THE TERMINAL FOG SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 
NIGHT AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

AFTER 12Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER 
WILL BECOME UNSETTLED WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING 
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH OF 
KALB...AFFECTING THE KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY 
SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL 
MENTION PREDOMINANT SHOWERS FOR KPOU/KPSF AND A PROB30 FOR 
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING AT 16Z-17Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE 
MORE STABLE FROM KALB TO KGFL...SO ONLY SHOWERS MENTIONED THERE.

SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING FOR 
KPSF/KPOU AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD. 
PRECIP SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING OR MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT FOG 
AND ASSOC MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. VFR CONDITIONS AND 
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KALB/KGFL DURING THE EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 
3-6 KT DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK... 
TUE NIGHT-FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. PSBL LATE NIGHT FOG ESPEC AT 
KGFL/KPSF. 
SAT...MAINLY VFR...SLGT CHC TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT 
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE 
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR 
THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY 
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.

BASIN AVERAGE AMTS THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH...TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...GREATEST FOR AREAS
NEAR AND S/E OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AMTS MAY BE
MUCH HIGHER...ESP WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS
GREATEST FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...WHERE PONDING OF WATER IN
LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS SEEMS LIKELY. THERE IS
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IN SOME OF THESE
AREAS DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY WET GROUND CONDITIONS...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING OF THUNDERSTORM CELLS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
THE VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...GJM/KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM