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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 171454
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1054 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
TO THE AREA MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS REGION. THEY ARE THICKER THAN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
ADJUSTED SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BASED ON
OBSERVATIONAL DATA. DID TWEAK AFTERNOON HIGHS DOWN A BIT. UPDATED
WINDS WILL LATEST GUIDANCE. CIRRUS SHOULD THIN AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. 

HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL FALL SHORT OF NORMAL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES.
NOT TOO BAD CONSIDERING WE STARTED SO COLD. ALBANY'S LOW TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING WAS 26 DEGREES THE RECORD FOR TODAY IS 21 DEGREES SET
IN 1971. POUGHKEEPSIE LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WAS 26
DEGREES THE RECORD FOR TODAY IS 22 DEGREES SET IN 1962.
 
OVERALL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND EASTERLY. HOWEVER WILL HAVE ENHANCED
FLOW...10 TO 15 MPH...EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL 
DISTURBANCE INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

TONIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...THE WIND WILL DIMINISH ONCE 
MORE...AND WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO 
THE 20S REGION WIDE...CLOSER TO 20 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...CLOSER 
TO 30 ALBANY SOUTHWARD. 
 
AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME MORE SUNSHINE 
WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 
LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID TO UPPER 50S IN 
VALLEY LOCATION.

THEN FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL 
APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS MOISTURE 
STARVED...MORE SO THAN BEFORE. IT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL BRING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS...BUT EVEN THESE LOOK 
FAIRLY LIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN...SLEET AND 
WET SNOW WITH MINOR SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS WITH PERHAPS AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS THE 
ADIRONDACKS PERHAPS THE HIGHEST AREAS OF THE CATSKILLS/SOUTHERN 
GREENS AND BERKSHIRES. VALLEY AREAS WILL STAY MAINLY RAIN WITH VERY 
LIGHT AMOUNTS. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS DECREASE FROM ALBANY AND 
ESPECIALLY SOUTH IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT.   

CLOUDS AND A RESIDUAL SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP A 
LITTLE FRIDAY ...BUT THEY WILL STILL FALL TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS 
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MID 30S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.     

THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION LATER SATURDAY TAKING ANY LEFTOVER 
SHOWERS WITH IT. IT WILL TURN BREEZY WITH WIND TURNING TO THE  WEST 
OR NORTHWEST AND GUSTING UP TO 25-30 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE 
HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT. 

THE AIR WILL SLIGHTLY COOL IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT SINCE WE WILL 
HAVE BETTER MIXING ON SATURDAY (COMPARED TO FRIDAY) SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF FRIDAY...MAYBE A 
COUPLE POINTS HIGHER IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/LOWER LITCHFIELD 
COUNTY WHERE THEY SHOULD REACH AROUND 60. ACROSS THE 
ADIRONDACKS...THEY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE UPPER 40S. MOST 
OTHER AREAS WILL BE IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL 
REGION.

EVERYONE CHILLS DOWN AGAIN SATURDAY AS ANOTHER LARGE HIGH PRESSURE 
DESCENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE HUDSON BAY REGION TO BRING A CLEARING 
SKY. WITH A LIGHT NORTH OR NORTHWEST WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 
TO AROUND FREEZING IN VALLEY LOCATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...20S 
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY.  
IT WILL TURN CHILLY

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY MAINLY 
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH OF 
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE A BETTER 
CHANCE OF WET WEATHER ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SLOW MOVING LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS OUR 
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE WEDNESDAY.
  
HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SUNDAY 
EXPECT A DRY DAY AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH FROM CANADA 
AND THEN SLIDES EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE IN DAY. EXPECT 
HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT 
INTO MONDAY A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH OUR REGION. VERY LITTLE 
MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE 
TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH PERIODS. EXPECT LOWS 
SUNDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS ON 
MONDAY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SEVERAL SURFACE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE 
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT DRAPED ALONG THE 
ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY WEDNESDAY 
MORNING. HAVE PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE FA ON TUESDAY WITH 
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS DURING THE OTHER PERIODS. HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES PROVIDING US 
WITH DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE 
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO 
AROUND 70. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH 
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S TO MID 60S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 
12Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD INTO NEW 
ENGLAND TODAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL 
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE CIRRUS WILL BECOME THICKER THIS 
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 
KT BY LATE THIS MORNING...AND THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS 
EVENING. 

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY: 
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW RH VALUES DOWN TO AROUND 20 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON... 
     HIGH HAINES INDEX OF 5 THIS AFTERNOON...

MOST OF THE SNOW FROM TUESDAY NIGHT IS GONE. HOWEVER...OLD SNOW 
STILL COVERED PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. 
 
MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A GOOD DEAL OF 
SUNSHINE EACH DAY...EXCEPT SATURDAY WHICH WILL FEATURE A BIT MORE IN 
THE WAY OF CLOUDS.

THE AIR MASS WILL MODERATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. THE WIND 
WILL BE LIGHT TURNING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON...5 TO 15 MPH. 
RH VALUES LOOK VERY LOW IN MOST PLACES. 

TONIGHT THE WIND WILL BECOME CALM BUT WE WILL NOT NECESSARILY HAVE 
FULL RECOVERY AS RH VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 75 PERCENT.

FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10 TO 15 MPH. RH 
VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS AFTERNOON. 

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN 
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK 
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.   

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE 
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK 
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD 
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE. 

DRY WEATHER...MOSTLY SUNNY AND SLIGHTLY MILDER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR 
SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT AT HINCKLEY AND KAST BRIDGE ON THE
WEST CANADA CREEK WITH BOTH JUST A HAIR ABOUT FLOOD STAGE AT THIS
TIME. ALSO...AT FORT EDWARD ON THE HUDSON RIVER WHICH IS ALSO
CURRENTLY JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. BASED ON FORECASTS THESE WARNINGS
WILL BE DROPPED TODAY. RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER IS IN MAJOR
FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED. BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING
WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IS FALLS BELOW FOOD STAGE. WILL UPDATE
STATEMENTS WITH UPDATED FORECASTS LATER THIS MORNING.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS 
TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD 
FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE 
LIGHT. AT THIS POINT...WE ANTICIPATED NO ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS
WITH THIS PRECIPITATION.

DRY WEATHER WILL RESUME LATE SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST SUNDAY. 

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV







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