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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 271145
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TO REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY
FOR FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MILDER AIR ATTEMPTS TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN
SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EST...RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING UPSTREAM AS THAT 
SHORT WAVE APPROACHES.  IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS COOLING CLOUD 
TOPS WITH THE EXPECTATIONS OF MORE SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION 
TODAY.  DID RAISE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND 
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE EVER SO SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE DAY.

PREV DISC...
THE NOR'EASTER THAT PRODUCED A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION
WAS QUICKLY DEPARTING OFF THE COAST OF MAINE THIS MORNING /WAS
993MB AS OF 08Z/. DEFORMATION AXIS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION WAS TOO QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AS SEEN IN THE COLDER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY CLOUD TOPS.
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE MOHAWK-HUDSON VALLEY CONVERGENCE AS METARS AND
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS POINT TOWARD WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION...HOWEVER...IT WAS ALSO FIGHTING SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
THE NOR'EASTER. FOR NOW...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC-SLIGHT CHC POPS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

H2O VAPOR LOOP DEPICTS A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF
NOAM. A COUPLE OF RATHER POTENT SHORT WAVES WERE OBSERVED...ONE
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE OTHER TRACKING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THESE FEATURES ARE
QUITE COLD WITH SUB -30C AIR AT H500 AND ABOVE. NCEP MODEL SUITE
AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACKING
THESE WAVES ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY. QG FORCING WAS PRONOUNCED LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES THAT SHOULD RESULT WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
COVERAGE. 4KM SPC AND HRRR REFLECTIVITIES DO INDICATE AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AS WE WILL REFLECT THIS IN THE
GRIDS/FORECAST WITH RAISING POPS. MOST OF THE HIGHER POP VALUES
WILL BE INTO THE TERRAIN WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. AS FOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS...WE COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO. 

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE...HOWEVER...WITH FRESH SNOW
COVER WE WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER...LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE
ON FRIDAY. LATEST NAM12 SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NORTHWEST...BUT AS THE RIDGE
BUILDS...THOSE WINDS BE BACKING WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY THAT WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION INITIALLY TO
MIGRATE INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN
DACKS. DUE TO THE MIGRATORY NATURE...THE INLAND EXTENT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED AS WE WILL KEEP POPS INTO THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE. AS H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN -12C
TO -14C...IT WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD AS STORM ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION INTO A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME. ALTHOUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST. AS FOR PRECIP
POTENTIAL...BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE UNDERWAY WITH THE BEST
LOWERING OF THE CPD/S TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA.
HOWEVER...SINCE THE LOW LEVELS WILL BECOME RATHER HIGH IN MOISTURE
CONTENT...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHC POPS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOST OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD FALL
AS WINTER TYPE BUT SOME OF THE WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
EXPERIENCE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES DIVERGE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND PER THE
CURRENT SNOW PACK...WE WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY CHANGEABLE WEATHER AND WIDELY 
VARYING TEMPERATURES AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS EASTERN NEW YORK 
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

FOR SUNDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA. FOR 
NOW HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH CHANCE POPS 
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ADIRONDACKS AS BEST FORCING FOR ANY PRECIPITATION  
MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER A COLD THANKSGIVING WEEKEND... 
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE BY LATE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 40S 
VALLEYS AND SOME 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

ONE OF THE MORE TRICKY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS THE LOW 
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE 
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER ACROSS THE AREA. IF WE CAN DECOUPLE THE 
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE GRADIENT WIND FLOW...WITH CLEARING SKIES 
TOWARD DAYBREAK...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL A GOOD TEN TO FIFTEEN 
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING. FOR NOW WENT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING AND 
THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEKEND. A COLD 
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD 
ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES 
THROUGH. A LITTLE COOLER IN THE HILLS WITH UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS.

TUESDAY LOOKS GENERALLY FAIR AND COLD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWS IN 
THE TEENS AND TWENTIES AND HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

BY WEDNESDAY THE NEXT WARM FRONT IS SURGING TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE 
MAY BE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION AROUND DAYBREAK 
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP TYPES. THE 
REST OF THE DAY LOOKS CLOUDY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND 
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE WEST. AS THIS COLD 
FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME RAIN SHOWERS 
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT 
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS KPOU WHICH IS CURRENTLY VFR
BUT HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR DUE TO FOG. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE A
VIGOROUS COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW
LATER TODAY TO THE AREA WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. A LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MID MORNING FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...FZRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SLEET.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED. 

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. 

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO ONE OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY.
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW
MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE
MONTH.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
HYDROLOGY...KL/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...ALY







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