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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 180808
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
408 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW 
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR.  HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY 
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO 
WIDESPREAD FROST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL FRIDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE 
WEEKEND WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 330 AM...COLD FRONT IS CONTINUING TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE NOW
BEGINNING TO MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS INTO
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SHOWERS WILL BE
LIGHT IN INTENSITY AS THEY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD WITH WEAK FORCING
ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WITH CLOUD COVER MOVING IN...TEMPERATURES
WILL HOLD STEADY IN THE MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...INFLUENCES OF A LARGE SURFACE
HIGH OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGING TRANQUIL WEATHER INTO THE
REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TODAY REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT...FREEZE WARNING HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE
ADIRONDACKS ALONG WITH FROST ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...WASHINGTON COUNTY AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.
AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS WESTERN QUEBEC IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A EASTWARD PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
THE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MAINE...THIS WILL ENHANCE NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING UP TO 12Z
FRIDAY. H850 AND H925 WINDS SHOW CAA THAT WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
DOWN THE LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND NORTHERN HUDSON VALLEY DUE
TO THE POSITIONING OF THE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURE STEERING THE
VELOCITY OF THE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL ONLY BE BETWEEN 5 TO 10
KNOTS WHICH IS WHY FROST IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE HEADLINE AREAS
ALONG THE NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS. 

AS WE GO FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A LARGE SYNOPTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN. LATEST 18/00Z MODEL
AND PROBABILISTIC DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS OUR AREA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN COASTLINE IS IN PROGRESS....OUR
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TOWARD AVERAGE BY THE
TIME WE HEAD INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 70S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SHARPENING OF THE TROUGH 
WHICH WILL ASSIST WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE DAY.  
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS PER COLLABORATION...WE WILL KEEP 
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.  AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH A STRONG 
SOUTHERLY WIND AND H850 TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TEENS...HIGHS SHOULD BE 
RATHER MILD WITH MAINLY 70S TO AROUND 80F IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY 
AND PORTIONS OF NW CT...MID-UPR 60S FOR THE DACKS.

FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS DURING THE EVENING AS COLD ADVECTION IS 
UNDERWAY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THOSE H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO SLIP BACK 
INTO THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS HEADING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. 
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH GREATLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW 
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY 
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE BACK TO BELOW NORMAL 
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM 45-55F...AND HIGHS MONDAY FROM MID 
50S ACROSS THE DACKS TO UPPER 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW 
CT. 

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LATEST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER 
FAST MOVING CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE 
VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL 
BE RATHER LIMITED THIS GO AROUND SO POPS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO ONLY 
SLIGHT CHANCE. 

THEREAFTER...LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EVOLVE EAST OF 
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WITH H500 HEIGHTS CLIMBING TOWARD 
590DM.  THE ECMWF WANTS TO SNEAK DOWN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE 
THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME AS WE WILL KEEP 
OUR WEATHER DRY.  TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND PERHAPS CLIMB ABOVE 
NORMAL.  

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SE CANADA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS 
THE TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS WILL ACCOMPANY ITS 
PASSAGE...AND MAY LINGER FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN ITS WAKE.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...AREAS OF GROUND FOG WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED AT KPSF. ELSEWHERE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR 
INTERMITTENT VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO SHALLOW GROUND FOG 
DEVELOPMENT...THE POTENTIAL IS LOW ENOUGH TO LIMIT MENTION IN 
TAFS...ESP AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN TAF SITES.

AFTER DAYBREAK...ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS 
ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY 
EVENING. THERE WILL BE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH WITH BASES IN THE 
5000-7000 FT RANGE AGL...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO 3500-4500 FT AGL AFTER 
22Z/WED.

AS FOR RAIN CHANCES...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC THAT A FEW SPRINKLES OR 
SOME DRIZZLE COULD OCCUR WITH OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT 
KGFL/KALB...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH 
EARLY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST 
AS THE FRONT PASSAGE AT 8-12 KT...WITH SOME GUSTS OF UP TO 20-25 KT 
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW 
ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RIDGE IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD FROST...NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH
FROST AND DEW FORMATION.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW...AND THE BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT. 

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING ON MONDAY.  

A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...WILL PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED HUNDREDTHS OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER LATE THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FROM THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AT THIS TIME.

RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL LIKELY RECEDE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 5
DAYS WITH LIMITED RAINFALL EXPECTED. 

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 41

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
CURRENT FORECAST: 33

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949... 
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 45

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ041-043-083-
     084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM
NEAR TERM...LFM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...LFM/BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...LFM/BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...NWS STAFF







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