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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 280004
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
804 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING. ANY SHOWERS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER
FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM EDT...SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS REGION...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS LAGGING BACK WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW FOR THE COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

AT 7PM LATEST RADAR SHOWING THE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION EXITING
THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS IS
MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. WITH LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING THIS SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE AND AT MOST BE A LINE OF LIGHT SHOWERS.
LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOWING COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN
NYS. AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN...THE SHOWERS
SHOULD START TO FALL APART.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM...
IN THE MEANTIME...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST 
OF ALBANY. THIS IS WHERE ANY REAL INSTABILITY EXISTS...WITH SPC 
MESO-ANALYSIS INDICATING A POCKET OF 1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE IN 
THIS AREA. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...A BAND OF CLOUD COVER MOVED IN 
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS TENDED TO LIMIT INSTABILITY BUILDUP 
DESPITE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-70 RANGE. 
SO...AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SETTLES SOUTH AND EAST WILL 
CONTINUE TO MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF 
ALBANY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. WITH 
LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25 KT AND POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE 
RATES...THE SEVER THREAT CONTINUES TO BE LOW. HOWEVER...A ROGUE 
SEVERE STORM PRODUCING A DAMAGING WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT 
SOUTH OF ALBANY EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE THE HIGHER CAPE EXISTS.

BY SUNSET...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER 
OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH WILL ALSO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF 
SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE 
PASSAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE BY LATE 
EVENING DUE TO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF THE 
SURFACE COLD FRONT. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE 
FRONT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN LATE. EXPECTING MIN 
TEMPS TO BE IN THE 50S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH LOWER 60S IN THE 
HUDSON VALLEY FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY 
AND FRIDAY...AS A COOL AND COMFORTABLE AIR MASS WITH LOWER HUMIDITY 
BUILDS INTO THE REGION COURTESY OF HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM 
THE GREAT LAKES. JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CU WILL POP UP ON 
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A PERSISTENT 
NORTHWEST BREEZE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL MAKE IT FEEL 
REFRESHING. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AND CLEAR...AS HIGH 
PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS 
EASTWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
HIGH SHOULD RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY 
LEVELS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

CLOUDS MAY START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY 
MORNING...AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE 
HIGH MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CAUSING A RETURN SOUTHERLY 
FLOW TO DEVELOP. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS REALLY DON/T INCREASE 
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY FOR AREAS WEST OF ALBANY. ANY 
POSSIBLE CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AS ANY SYNOPTIC 
SCALE FORCING SHOULD BE DISPLACED WELL TO OUR WEST BASED ON THE 
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. SO WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE 
POPS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION LATE IN THE DAY. 
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE 
SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO MID-WEEK AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE 
STAYS WELL OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH A COLD FRONT FROM THE 
NORTHWEST NOT ARRIVING IN OUR AREA UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.  
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SLIGHTLY DAY-TO-DAY.  HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 
THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S ON 
SUNDAY...THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S ON LABOR DAY...THE MID 70S TO 
UPPER 80S AGAIN ON ON TUESDAY...AND THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S AGAIN 
ON WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S 
SATURDAY NIGHT...FROM AROUND 60 DEGREES TO AROUND 70 DEGREES SUNDAY 
NIGHT...FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...AND FROM 
THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD 
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH NORMAL LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
STATES. 

TONIGHT...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE VFR. CEILINGS WILL BE
SCT-BKN 4-6 KFT AND BKN~ 150-200 KFT. THE CLOUDS WILL HOLD UNTIL
5-6Z. DUE TO THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF CLEARING EXPECTED...HAVE OPTED
TO LEAVE OUT FOG. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY FOG WOULD BE IN THE AM
HOURS ACROSS KGFL AND KPSF. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE WAS LOW...SO
LEFT IT OUT. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TO VRB03KT BY 4-10Z.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. W-NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE DURING DAYTIME TO AROUND 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY TO LABOR DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF 
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION 
THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY MIDNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT 
CLEARS THE AREA AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN 
BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO 
FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT 
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 85 TO 100 PERCENT 
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT 
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO 
BE 85 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH...INCREASING TO 10 
TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ON THURSDAY. WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT 
WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA 
THIS EVENING...BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WITH SOME BRIEF DOWNPOURS 
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A 
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON 
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. 

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT 
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN 
MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY 
HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE 
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE 
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VTK/JPV
NEAR TERM...VTK/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...11/JPV
HYDROLOGY...11/JPV







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