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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 302201
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
601 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE FAIR AND SEASONABLY COOL 
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. COLDER AIR WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE WEEKEND AS A STRONG STORM FORMS WELL OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. THE COLDER AIR WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 600 PM EDT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF CLOUDINESS COVERING THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW SCATTERED SPRINKLES ARE PERSISTING
OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BUT THOSE WILL BE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. CLEARING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE VALLEYS THIS EVENING
WITH AT LEAST SOME CLEARING ELSEWHERE AS A SMALL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MAIN FEATURE TO MONITOR DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE A
STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS WAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTH AND CLOSE-OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
VIRGINIA COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING BUT THIS LOW WILL TRACK WELL TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION COULD BE OVER THE FAR
EAST WHERE SOME STEADIER PRECIPITATION MIGHT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
OR WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE SHIELD OF STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL GET AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL MASS... WHILE THE
NAM IS A BIT FARTHER EAST. 

OTHERWISE THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD WILL BE
COOL WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
HAVE GONE WITH POP VALUES MAINLY NEAR 30 PERCENT FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO COVER FOR THIS. EXPECT LOWEST POPS TO BE
IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
BE WEST OF THE CATSKILLS AS THE FLOW WILL BE NNW INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A DRY UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MODERATING WEATHER AS THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH RIDGING BUILDING NORTHEAST FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED
BY COOLER BUT NOT REALLY VERY COLD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE LATER TIME PERIODS OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. SKIES
WILL BE BKN- 0VC WITH CIGS RANGING FROM 4-6 KFT THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SCT CLOUD
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.

WINDS WILL BE WNW AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS
TO 20 KTS... BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. 

OUTLOOK... 
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. 
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. 
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT 
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NE NORTHWEST 
AT 5 TO 15 MPH TODAY...AND LIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER 
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS 
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND BASIN 
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...







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