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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 281439
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1039 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. IT WILL BE WARMER AND
MORE HUMID FROM SUNDAY ON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VALLEY FOG HAS LIFTED AND BURNED OFF AND DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS
FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. H850 TEMPS LOOK TO BE +11C TO
+12C...WHICH WITH PRETTY GOOD MIXING...WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S IN THE VALLEYS AND IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S
WILL YIELD COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AT LESS THAN 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.
TONIGHT LOOKS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AT MOST...ALLOWING FOR PRETTY GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING...DESPITE A LITTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. 

LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND EVEN CATSKILLS AND BERKSHIRES...TO THE LOWER 
TO MID 50S MOST OTHER PLACES. WE BELIEVE THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE
IN THE WAY OF PATCHY FOG...SO INCLUDED IT IN THE GRIDS.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL SATURDAY. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK 
TO RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES. MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES 75-80 HIGHLANDS...80-85 IN THE VALLEYS. THE DEWPOINTS
WILL CREEP UP A LITTLE... BUT GENERALLY HOLD IN THE 50S SO ANOTHER
FAIRLY COMFORTABLE DAY WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHERLY 5-10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND MOVES OFFSHORE. A WEAK WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION PROVIDING SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS
A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...BUT AT THIS POINT UNLIKELY...SO NO MENTION
IN THE FORECAST.

WITH THE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TONIGHT...
GENERALLY 55-60 EXCEPT 50-55 IN THE COOLER REMOTE AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE 
LONG TERM PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SURFACE TO ALOFT...ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

HAVE PLACED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS 
NORTHWEST THIRD OF FA FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS AREA. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ALTHOUGH 
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE PERIOD WITH DEWPOINTS 
RISING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM MID 70S TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY...MID 
70S TO AROUND 90 ON MONDAY...AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 90S TUESDAY 
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 
60S EACH NIGHT FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VALLEY FOG HAS LIFTED AND BURNED OFF AND DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS
FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EVENING. A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AT LESS THAN 10
KNOTS.

TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH THE WIND DIMINISHING TO CALM. 
SOME FOG WILL LIKELY FORM...AFTER 06Z. FOR NOW...CALLED IT IFR 
MIST (2SM) AT KGFL AFTER 06Z...IFR MIST (2SM) AT KPSF AFTER
08Z... BUT ONLY MIFG AT KPOU AND KALB WITH NO RESTRICTIONS FOR
NOW. UNTIL AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-TUE: OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...NO OPERATIONAL
IMPACT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS OUR REGION. A FULL
OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY SHOULD BE REALIZED EACH NIGHT WITH AT LEAST 
SOME MORNING DEW.

THERE COULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS ON 
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM IN THE SAME AREA 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THAT WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION.

OTHERWISE IT WILL START OUT SEASONABLE...BUT GETTING WARM TO HOT AS
HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE MODERATE 
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY...IN THE 40S. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LOOKS TO CREEP UP HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE WIND WILL BE WEST OR SOUTHWEST TODAY 5-10 MPH...LIGHT OR CALM
TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHERLY 5-10 MPH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. 

NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. 

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGHOUT THIS TIME
FRAME. 

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/VTK
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/VTK



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