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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 280216
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
916 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO 
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH BELOW NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.  A WARM FRONT WILL 
BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO 
SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 900 PM EST...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS
SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING WHICH HAS BECOME
ENHANCED SLIGHTLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS, FOR THIS UPDATE
WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS LOCALLY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND
THEN DECREASE POPS LATER ON. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHS WHICH ARE TENDING TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY WITH ONE TROUGH
SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL NY. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...AND AN INVERTED SFC TROUGH ACCORDING TO NAM/GFS/ECMWF IS
EXPECTED TO FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND SE NEW ENGLAND. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS INTERACTS WITH THE SFC TROUGH...PERIODS OF
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

THE BEST CHC OF SNOW ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
GREEN MTNS OF VT...AND SRN DACKS...ALTHOUGH EVEN LOCALLY UP TO AN
INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. THUS SOME LIKELY POPS WERE USED IN THE
ZONES FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND EAST. MOST OF
THE FCST AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL HAVE ON
AND OFF LIGHT SNOW...AND HIGH CHC POPS WERE USED. SOME LIGHT
ACCUMS OF A COATING TO AN INCH OR SO BY DAYBREAK.

SOME WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE WITH H850 TEMPS FALLING TO -10C TO -13C. THE CLOUDS
WILL INHIBIT A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. OUR MIN TEMPS ARE IN CLOSER
ALIGNMENT WITH THE NAM MOS VALUES WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE H500 TROUGH AXIS MOVES DOWN STREAM OF NEW ENGLAND.
W/NW FLOW PERSISTS IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE TN VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST. SOME MULTI BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK
INTO THE NRN AND ERN CATSKILLS EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT ANY WESTERLY
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SRN GREENS AND SRN DACKS SHOULD END EARLY.

ANY LAKE RESPONSE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE W TO NW FLOW...BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BACK MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE
SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDING IN. A WEAK CONNECTION TO LAKE ONTARIO IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA SHOULD BE
COLD AND DRY FOR THE BIG SHOPPING DAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED NW OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
MAX TEMPS WILL STILL RUN A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30-35F RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 20S OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF LAKE ONTARIO WILL
BE LIMITED WITH THE INLAND EXTENT DUE TO THE RAPID BACKING FLOW
AND THE LOW INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS SUCH AS
AT KUCA IN BUFKIT. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE CONDITIONAL.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH OR TWO
IN THE WRN DACKS. MOST THE REST OF THE FCST AREA WILL PARTLY
CLOUDY...COLD AND DRY WITH THE SFC HIGH BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL BE
QUITE COLD IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. 

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DRIER FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA TO OPEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE FLAT
FLOW...AND AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MAY FOCUS SOME SNOW SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THERE IS WEAK LOW
LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT SAT NIGHT...SO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY LATE. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE ON SATURDAY WITH U20S TO M30S...AND LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 20S TO L30S SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT TEMPS MAY ON THE RISE WITH
THE WARM FRONT...AS ITS ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE MOVES TOWARDS JAMES
BAY...AND MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE LONG TERM WITH A 
RELATIVELY FAST ZONAL FLOW AND WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE FA 
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SHORT 
WAVE BY WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO 
VALLEY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE 
RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. ON MONDAY A SERIES ON COLD 
FRONTS WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA WITH MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE 
FORECAST. THE LOWS ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S 
WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50.

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 
IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S 
TO UPPER 30S.

ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING TOWARDS OUR REGION 
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH HIGHS ON 
WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS VARYING FROM VFR TO IFR DUE TO
LIGHT SNOW AT THE KGFL/KPOU/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES. WHEN NOT SNOWING
MAINLY VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU TAF
SITES THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...BUT MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR CIGS
EXPECTED EVEN WHEN NO SNOW IS OCCURRING...WITH VFR VSBYS. WHEN
SNOWING AT KPSF EXPECT MVFR TO IFR VSBYS. FROM 06Z TONIGHT THROUGH
18Z FRIDAY EXPECT VFR VSBYS AT THE TAF SITES...WITH MAINLY VFR
CIGS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY
EXCEPT FOR SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB AND KPSF FROM MID MORNING
FRIDAY ON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS 
ENDING TUESDAY. 

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON 
MONDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THE MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR 
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM/11
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...







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