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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 271156
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
656 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST OFF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO 
INTENSIFY...AS IT TRACKS EAST OF CAPE COD. THIS STORM WILL BRING A 
CRIPPLING BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE  
REMAINDER OF ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. SINCE IT HAS TAKEN MORE 
OF AN EASTERLY TRACK...SNOWFALL OVER MOST OF EASTERN NEW YORK WILL 
BE MODERATE AT MOST. THE SNOW WILL END TONIGHT AS THE STORM PULLS 
AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 655 AM EST...IT TIME TO DOWNGRADE THE REMAINING OF THE EASTERN 
NEW YORK/S COUNTIES. RADARS INDICATING THAT THE SNOW SHIELD WAS 
HAVING TROUBLED EVEN MAKING INTO THE CAPITAL REGION...AS DRIER AIR 
WAS HANGING TOUCH. ALSO...THE SHIELD WAS MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW...WITH 
ONLY A FEW MORE ELEMENTS OF MODERATE SNOW. EXPECT 3-6 INCHES OF 
SNOWFALL IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY...PERHAPS A FEW 7 INCH AMOUNTS 
LOCALLY. THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED BLOWING OF THE SNOW. 
ALSO...DUE TO VERY COLD TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE HARD TO MELT THE 
SNOW OFF ANY OF THE ROADS. 

PER COORDINATION...WE KEPT ALL WINTER STORM WARNINGS OUT FOR 
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR 
LITCHFIELD COUNTY.    

THE LOW PRESSURE WAS STILL AROUND 980 MBS...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF 
CAPE COD. IT WAS IN THE PROCESS OF GETTING "CAPTURED" BY THE UPPER 
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WAS NEARING IT. THIS MEANS THAT STORM HAS 
JUST ABOUT PEAKED IN INTENSITY...AND IT IS PUMMELING THE NEW ENGLAND 
COASTLINE.  


THE HEAVIEST BANDS WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE INTO MOST OF OUR REGION 
(EXCEPT POSSIBLY LITCHFIELD) WHERE SNOWFALL RATES COULD STILL MAX 
OUT IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE. HOWEVER...MESO-SCALE MODELS DO INDICATE 
DEFORMATION BANDS WITH LIGHT TO MAYBE MODERATE INTENSITY SHOULD BE 
WITH US LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING SNOWFALL 
RATES A HALF TO PERHAPS AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE SNOW IS OF A 
POWDERY NATURE...WITH A HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO...LIKELY IN THE 
ORDER OF 15:1. 

WE NOW PROJECT 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL IN MOST OF THE ADVISORY 
AREA...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. 
STILL...WITH VERY LOW TEMPERATURES AND A BREEZE...THERE WILL BE SOME 
LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY IN THE RURAL SECTIONS. IT WILL BE 
HARD FOR CREWS TO TOTALLY MELT THE SNOW...AND IN FACT...PARTIALLY 
MELTED SNOW COULD BECOME BLACK ICE. BOTTOM LINE...TRAVEL WILL STILL 
BE TRICKY AT BEST.

FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE TACONICS...SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN 
THE 6-12 INCHES (LOWER THAN EARLY PROJECTIONS). 

LITCHFIELD COUNTY STILL LOOKS TO GET MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES IN THE 
2-3 INCH RANGE PER HOUR AT TIMES...AND COULD STILL END UP WITH A 
TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 8-16 INCHES. EVEN THIS MIGHT BE A BIT 
HIGH...BUT WITH MODERATE SNOWFALL WORKING INTO THAT COUNTY...WE 
DECIDED NOT TO LOWER AMOUNTS MORE YET. 

THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THE EARLIER FORECAST IS THAT THE STORM TOOK 
MORE AN EASTERLY TRACK FOR SEVERAL POSSIBLE REASONS. ONE...THE 
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKED TO SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER EAST. 
ALSO...THERE IS A GOOD JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW 
ENGLAND...THAT LIKELY HELP JOG THE STORM FURTHER EAST. EITHER 
WAY...THE GOOD F-GEN AND HEAVIEST SNOW (OTHER THAN PERHAPS 
LITCHFIELD) WILL LIKELY MISS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. 

IT WILL BE VERY COLD TODAY ALONG WITH SOME WIND OUT OF THE NORTH OR 
NORTHEAST. FIGURE ON 10-15 MPH WINDS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH A FEW 
HIGHER GUSTS...BUT 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH OVER THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN. OVER MUCH OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WIND GUSTS ARE STILL 
PROJECTED TO GUST TO 40 MPH AT TIMES...PRODUCING TRUE BLIZZARD 
CONDITIONS. EVEN OUTSIDE OF LITCHFIELD COUNTY...AGAIN THERE WILL 
LIKELY BE A LITTLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING  SNOW...BUT NOT AS 
EXTENSIVE. 

HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE BE HELD TO THE TEENS...EXCEPT LOWER 
20S WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
BY THIS EVENING...THE NOR'EASTER WILL HAVE PEAKED IN 
INTENSITY...HAVING BECOME FULLY OCCLUDED (VERTICALLY STACKED) AND 
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. IT WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CAPE 
COD...TRACKING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. 

IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE ITS GRIP ON OUR AREA. EVEN AS THE SYNOPTIC SNOW 
BEGINS TO DIMINISH...WE MIGHT EXPERIENCE SOME MOHAWK HUDSON 
CONVERGENCE (PER CSTAR STUDIES) AS SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS 
INDICATE THE WIND WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY IN THE HUDSON VALLEY VERSUS 
NORTHWESTERN IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER INCH OR 
TWO OF NUISANCE SNOW IN THE CAPITAL REGION. UPSLOPE SNOWS TO THE 
EAST COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE...ESPECIALLY IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. ALL 
HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 100 AM. 

LATER OVERNIGHT...ALL SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO FLURRIES. EVEN WITH 
LITTLE IF ANY PARTIAL CLEARING...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIP TO AROUND 
10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH...SINGLE 
DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO WELL NORTH OF ALBANY. 

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING FOR 
SOME SUNSHINE. THE FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME TO NORTHWESTERLY AND THE 
COLUMN TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IF ANY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. 
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE TEENS NORTH...LOWER TO MID 20S 
ALBANY...SO CONTINUED WELL BELOW NORMAL. 

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE REGION. WITH A MAINLY 
CLEAR SKY...LIGHT WIND AND FRESH SNOW PACK...TEMPERATURES COULD 
REALLY TUMBLE...TO AROUND ZERO TO 10 BELOW NORTH OF ALBANY...SINGLE 
NUMBERS ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PER PREVIOUS EXCELLENT DISCUSSIONS...THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS 
SHAPING UP TO BE MORE ACTIVE /ACCUMULATING SNOW/ AND TEMPERATURES 
THAT WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL AS THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL 
OSCILLATION/.

THE FIRST PV ANOMALY QUICKLY TRACKS AND AMPLIFIES THE TROUGH ACROSS 
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.  
CONSENSUS FAVORS CLOUDS ON THE INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH 
INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP.  AN ACCUMULATING 
SNOW IS EXPECTED AS MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE AVERAGING BETWEEN ONE 
QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.  SNOW RATIOS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 
10-15:1 SO AT LEAST AN ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA SHOULD BE SATISFIED 
FOR MANY LOCATIONS. 

IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP 
FOR THE WEEKS END AS H850 TEMPS PLUNGE BACK TO BELOW -20C.  NEEDLESS 
TO SAY...THIS TOO WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OUR TEMPERATURES RESULTING 
IN HIGHS RANGING EARLY ON RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEY 
LOCATIONS AND 20S ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY FALLING THROUGH 
THE DAY. 

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND 
MAY LINGER INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.  PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES 
ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND LIKELY A FRESH SNOW PACK WILL BE 
RESULT IN CHILLY TEMPERATURES AS WE CHANGE THE CALENDAR FROM JANUARY 
TO FEBRUARY.

TRENDS SEEN IN THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SNOW EVENT...THIS 
ONE A BIT MORE SIGNIFICANT...TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE SUNDAY AND 
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.  HINTS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ORIGINS A 
BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND ATTEMPTS TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM 
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW WILL BE RATHER PATCHY FOR TODAY WITH GENERALLY SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS AT THE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KPSF WHERE THE SNOW WILL
LINGER LONGER. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH P6SM -SN OVC040 WITH TEMPO
3-5SM -SN OVC025 AT KALB...KGFL AND KPOU THRU 16Z THEN STRAIGHT
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 12Z WEDNESDAY
WITH GENERALLY OVC045-050 CONDITIONS. KPSF WILL SEE THE SNOW
LINGER LONGER AND HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH MVFR/IFR CONDS 16Z THEN
MVFR CONDS THRU 22Z THEN IMPROVING TO OVC045 AFT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 8-12 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY FROM
THE NORTH AT 10-15 KT...WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KT EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHSN...SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE 
DAYS. 

THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH 
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW 
ENGLAND.  

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES 
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED 
BY ICE EFFECTS. 

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR 
     NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV









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