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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 240236
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
936 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 936 PM EST...THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS EVENING WITH H500
HEIGHTS OVERLAYED DEPICTS AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NEAR THE TN VALLEY.
A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING N/NE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND THE
TN VALLEY. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM
FRONT. WE CONTINUED THE TREND TO TWEAK THE POPS BACK SLIGHTLY
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE. EXPECTING THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO INCREASE QUICKLY BTWN 06Z-12Z WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE OVER THE REGION. A STRONG LLJ WILL
FOCUS THE RAINFALL /50-70 KTS AT H850/. THE LLJ WILL ADVECT IN
ANOMALOUS PWAT AIR A FEW STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE QUICKLY FROM THE S/SE. SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE
MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN GREENS TOWARDS 12Z. FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...THE WINDS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME PENETRATING THE STABLE
LAYER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE RAIN COULD BECOME MODERATE TO HVY
INTENSITY AT TIMES OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY BTWN 09Z-12Z. THE
RAINFALL IS STARTING TO BREAK OUT OVER PA AND MD THIS HOUR.

LOWS SO FAR ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN THE M30S TO L50S. THIS IS
DUE TO THE DECOUPLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION /FOR EXAMPLE KPSF
AT 36F/. THE S/SE WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXPECT LOWS IN THE M30S TO M40S...AND THEN STEADY OR RISING IN THE
RAINFALL. 

TOMORROW...
AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO. 

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB. 

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN. 

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF'S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY 
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION 
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK 
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN 
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE 
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY 
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE 
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN 
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH 
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE 
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS 
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH 
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE 
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER 
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID 
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY 
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
TOMORROW MORNING...AND A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY
THE EARLY EVENING. 

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT...AND THEN THE BETTER THRUST OF LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL APPROACH THE REGION. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
FOCUS PERIODS OF RAIN. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER TO LOW MVFR/IFR
LEVELS AT KPOU/KALB/KPSF/KGFL BTWN 06Z-09Z. THE WIDESPREAD IFR/LOW
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST OF THE MORNING UNTIL 17Z/MON.
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO MVFR TO VFR LEVELS IN
THE AFTERNOON. 

LLWS WILL BE A PROBLEM OVERNIGHT AS THE 2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO
40-50 KTS FROM S TO SE. LLWS WAS USED AT ALL THE TERMINALS BTWN
06Z-15Z/MON. THE SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM PRIOR TO
06Z...AND THEN WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE E TO SE AT 7 KTS OR LESS
PRIOR TO 12Z. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AT 8-16 KTS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUST AROUND 25 KTS AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







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