Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Albany, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4]



000
FXUS61 KALY 302017
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
417 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO
WEDNESDAY. DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. TYPICAL FALL
WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT...RADARS SHOWING A FEW SMALL SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS, ABOUT WHERE EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED T-STORMS ARE FURTHER TO THE
WEST OUT TOWARD BINGHAMTON. OVERALL FLOW IS PRETTY WEAK, SO THESE
SHOWERS WON'T MOVE MUCH -- AND I EXPECT THEM TO FADE AWAY SHORTLY
AS WE'VE ALREADY PAST OUR PEAK HEATING TIME. STILL A BUNCH OF LOW
CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BACK DOOR FRONT AND MOIST EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. STILL EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO PROGRESS A BIT MORE TO THE WEST DURING THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER, STILL LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER LOW (WHICH IS
SPARKING THE CONVECTION FARTHER WEST) WILL MOVE TO A POSITION OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LOW
WILL WORK WITH THE MOISTURE TO SPAWN SCATTERED SHOWERS, PRIMARILY
FOR SOUTHERN & EASTER SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE PAINTED
IN 30-50% POPS FROM THE BERKSHIRES INTO NW CONNECTICUT AND THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. POPS DECREASE AS YOU HEAD
FURTHER NORTHWEST -- BECOMING NEGLIGIBLE AS YOU REACH THE 'DACKS.

HONESTLY, NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. I
TOOK A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, BUT WITH THE MODELS NOT
HANDLING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AND CLOUDS) VERY WELL, THE
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS MAY END UP BEING NOT THE GREATEST. IN
GENERAL, WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE COOLEST TEMPERATURES (LOW-MID 60S)
IN SOUTH/EAST AREAS WITH SOME UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS 70 MORE
NORTH/WEST WHERE IT WILL BE DRIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
AT LEAST WITH THE SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES
TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS LIGHT EASTERLY. AGAIN, TOOK A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE AND CAVEATES WITH REGARD TO THE CLOUDS IMPACTING
TEMPERATURES REMAIN. IN GENERAL, THURSDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN
THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WON'T BE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL
-- 40S IN THE COOLER AREAS TO 50S FOR EVERYONE ELSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT...MAIN WEATHER EVENT IS DURING THIS PERIOD. A
POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH MAINLY ON SATURDAY,
AND IN IT'S WAKE MORE TYPICAL FALL WEATHER WILL BE SEEN. 12Z
GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, SO FOR THE MOST PART I TOOK A
BLEND OF GFS AND EURO. DAILY DETAILS BELOW...

FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN, SO IT WILL BE DRY. RIDGING ALOFT
MEANS IT SHOULD ALSO BE SUNNY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE MOIST EASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL,
TOUCHING 70F IN THE WARMER VALLEYS

SATURDAY: PRECIPITATION STARTS COMING IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/FIRST
THING SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL JET WITH
850MB WINDS 40-50KTS. COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SOME VALLEYS. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM
WILL BE TAPPING SOME DECENT MOISTURE, SO A GOOD 8-12 HOURS OF
RAIN, WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. THE CLOUDS
AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. INITIAL THINKING IS
THAT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1/2 TO 3/4 INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY: POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS SOME GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOUDY, THANKS TO LAKE
EFFECT MOISTURE STREAMING OFF LAKE ONTARIO AND ERIE, THOUGH THE
FARTHER SOUTHEAST YOU GO, THE MORE DOWNSLOPING AND BETTER CHANCE
FOR SOME SUNSHINE. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING TOWARD 0C BY
LATE IN THE DAY, SO FAIRLY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
HAPPENING. HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO A FEW LOWER 60S IN THE FARTHER
SOUTH/EAST AREAS THANKS TO THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS. SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY, WITH THE COLDER AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 30S,
BUT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL STAY UP ENOUGH TO MITIGATE FROST
POTENTIAL. 

MONDAY/TUESDAY: ANOTHER SYSTEM COMES INTO THE AREA. 12Z GUIDANCE
HAS MORE DIFFERENCES, SO KEPT WITH A MORE BROADBRUSH FORECAST FOR
BOTH DAYS SHOWING CHANCE LEVEL POPS AND A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS.
AGAIN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS WELL. SEEMED LIKE
THE BEST WAY TO GO.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...COMBINATION OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS
(DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS/CEILINGS). SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT WITH SUNSET EXPECT THE LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO BEGIN TO EXPAND WESTWARD AND FILLING IN
THROUGH THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. ANTICIPATE MVFR, IF NOT IFR,
CEILINGS TO BE COMMON AFTER 06Z. MAY EVEN AGAIN SEE FOG DEVELOPING
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AROUND
POU. AT THIS POINT JUST MENTIONED VCSH SINCE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS WELL. COULD
SEE PRECIPITATION AS FAR NORTH AS ALB AND PSF, BUT KEPT THE
MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT AT THIS TIME SINCE THE CHANCES ARE LOW.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AGAIN, THE IFR CONDITIONS
WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 14/15Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY..
18Z WED TO 00Z FRI...MVFR TO LOCAL IFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
00Z FRI TO 12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR
12Z SAT ONWARD...MVFR WITH SHOWERS. STRONG/GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND
LLWS ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

ANY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. THOUGH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HEAVIER -- PERHAPS 3/4" OR SO --- NO
SIGNIFICANT RESPONSES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT ON AREA RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NASH
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...NASH
LONG TERM...NASH
AVIATION...NASH
HYDROLOGY...NASH







National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy