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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 180822
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
422 AM EDT WED MAR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH 
COLD AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS...AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES 
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN 
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT 
AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN...AND ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH BELOW 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL 
BRING MAINLY LIGHT SNOW TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND 
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 422 AM EDT...THE NARROW BAND OF SNOW IN THE WAKE OF THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OF MOST OF THE FCST
AREA. IT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CATSKILLS. A POTENT NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
IMPACT SE CANADA...NY AND NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. A CYCLONE
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. THE LOW MAY
DEEPEN TO 960 HPA BY 18Z/WED AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST FURTHER INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STEEPEN BETWEEN THE MARITIME
CYCLONE AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION. ANOTHER WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED. AN EXAMINATION OF THE
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOWS 35-45 KTS AT H850 DURING THE DAY...AND
THE BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER PROFILES /KALB...KPOU...KGFL...KPSF/
SHOW MIXING POTENTIAL TO 2-4 KFT AGL...WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND
30-35 KTS. THESE GUSTS SHOULD FALL SHORT OF 40 KTS...SO A WIND
ADVISORY HEADLINE WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. THE WINDS
ACTUALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BTWN
18Z/WED TO 00Z/THU. IT IS A DIFFERENT SITUATION COMPARED TO THE
BRIEF GUSTY POST FRONTAL WINDS FROM YESTERDAY.

EXPECT NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 TO 40 MPH.
THE HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
BERKSHIRES...TACONICS...LITCHFIELD HILLS...ERN CATSKILLS...AND THE
FUNNELING EFFECT IN THE CAPITAL REGION.  

SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND DUE TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
SPARSE...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A DUSTING TO A HALF AN INCH
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...W-CNTRL
MOHAWK VALLEY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY BACK A BIT FOR THE SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES TO EXPAND INTO THE N-CNTRL TACONICS...AND SRN
GREENS IN THE AFTER NOON AND EARLY EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING AS
THE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN. THE W/NW OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS WILL
GENERALLY PRODUCE A QUARTER INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL.

BLUSTERY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE WITH H850 TEMPS OF -15C
TO -19C. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BY 10 TO 15 DEGREES
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE M20S TO L30S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND
TEENS TO L20S OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLACKEN WITH THE
OCCLUDED CYCLONE MOVING TOWARDS LABRADOR. THE SFC HIGH BUILDS
EASTWARD DRIFTS INTO THE CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES REGION. CLEARING
SKIES...AND A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS EXPECTED.
ALSO...THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH VERY COLD CONDITIONS. EXPECT
LOWS TO 10 TO 15F FROM PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH INTO
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN TACONICS...AND NW CT. EXPECT SINGLE
DIGITS IN ALL OTHER LOCATIONS EXPECTED THE SRN DACKS...AND HIGH
PEAKS OF THE SRN GREENS WHERE SOME ZERO TO 5 BELOW READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE. WIND CHILLS WILL BE FROM ZERO TO 15 BELOW OVER THE FCST
AREA. 

THURSDAY...LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THE SFC ANTICYCLONE SETTLING OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NE OF THE FCST AREA. A STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO ORGANIZE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND THE CNTRL MS RIVER
VALLEY. HIGHS ON THU WILL RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND TEENS TO
L20S OVER THE MTNS.

THU NIGHT INTO FRI...TRANQUIL AND COLD CONDITIONS THU NIGHT AS
THE SFC ANTICYCLONE DRIFTS EAST OF THE REGION AND OFF THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS START TO RACE IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST BTWN 06Z-12Z. SOME MOISTURE FROM A SRN STREAM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD...AS A RELATIVELY FLAT MID LEVEL
TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE SFC WAVE FRI PM INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
ECMWF/CAN GGEM/NAM AND SOME OF THE SREFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO BE
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS. THE GFS HAS PERFORMED WELL
LATELY...BUT SINCE THIS TREND IS PERSISTENT WE INCREASED THE POPS
TO LIKELY VALUES SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/I-90 CORRIDOR FRI
PM AND CHC VALUES TO THE NORTH FOR SOME OVER RUNNING PCPN DUE TO
THE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HAVE TO COOL DURING
THE DAY WITH THE HIGHER MARCH SUN ANGLE. THE ECMWF IS THE WETTEST
SOLUTION. THE GFS AND EVEN THE CAN GGEM DRIER WITH A SHARPER EDGE.
AN INCH OR TWO OF WET SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SE CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY...CNTRL-SRN TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...NW CT PRIOR TO
00Z/SAT. LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH. AFTER LOWS
IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS...EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE U20S
TO 30S

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS WILL START THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A DEVELOPING 
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST 
OF LONG ISLAND AS WE GO INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. FOLLOWING 
THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...VERY COLD AIR WILL USHER 
INTO THE REGION BEHIND A PROGRESSING COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING 
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH SOME 
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AS WE GO FROM SUNDAY INTO 
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LATEST 17/12Z GLOBAL MODELS
AND NUMERICAL DATA SHOW A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ALONG A MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE MODEL TRENDS DO DIFFER IN THE TRACK OF THIS
POTENTIAL SYSTEM. SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES DUE EAST FROM THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT OVER THE REGION WHILE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS OUTPUTS SHOW A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER SURFACE LOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH AN EMBEDDED VORT MAX MOVES EAST BEHIND IT WITH
SOME ENHANCED VERTICAL LIFT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST
NEAR MONTAUK POINT BY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THIS RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS AS OF NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR SOME
ACCORD BETWEEN THE DATA TO BE ESTABLISHED. WITH MODEL AND
PROBABILISTIC BLENDS IN THE GRIDS...HIGHEST POPS IS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE MARCH.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NW TO SE ACROSS THE 
REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY WHERE H850 AND H925 TEMPS 
WILL RANGE BETWEEN -15C TO -19C AND -10C TO -15C RESPECTIVELY 
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. WITH A STEEP 1000-500 
HPA HEIGHT GRADIENT IN ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER 
CANADA...ALONG WITH DAYTIME MIXING WITH THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE...IT 
WILL BE QUITE WINDY AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH 
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE. SOME RIPPLES 
ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN 
REGIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK PROVIDING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE 
HIGH TERRAIN. OVERALL...IT WILL BE QUITE COLD AND WINDY AS WE GO 
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES STARTING WELL BELOW 
NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL AS WE GO INTO 
TUESDAY UNDER MOSTLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW OF AIR WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS
THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT
06Z THURSDAY. GENERALLY EXCPECT A SCT-BKN CU/SC CLOUDS DECK
BETWEEN 4500 AND 6000 FEET AT THE TAF SITES. 

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AT 8 TO 14 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH SUNRISE...THEN INCREASE TO 12 TO 18 KTS
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 32 KTS. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AT KALB AND
KPSF. LATE IN THE DAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE TO 8 TO 12 KTS...BUT WIND GUSTS UP TO 18 KTS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE AT KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
LATE WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI-SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC RA/SN.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE MAJORITY OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND IS SNOW COVERED OR WET FROM SNOW MELT. VERY COLD AND DRY
CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW FREEZING. COLD AND
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH DIMINISHING
WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
SUNDAY. 

THE RACE BETWEEN MELT OUT AND BREAK UP CONTINUES TO BE WON BY MELT
OUT. COLD TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR THIS WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED ORDERLY SLOW MELT OF SNOW AND RIVER ICE. HOWEVER...THE
RATE OF MELT WILL BE SLOW WED INTO FRI DUE TO THE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS. A BRIEF WARM-UP IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
ARCTIC FRONT SLAMS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPS TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND. 

SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FROM SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. A STORM SYSTEM PASSING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA
FRI-FRI NIGHT WILL PRODUCE MAINLY LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT QPF ONCE
AGAIN. 

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...LFM/GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...SND/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SND/WASULA



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