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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 232028
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
333 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WILL 
IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE 
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE...INCLUDING POTENTIAL DAMAGING WINDS 
AND LARGE HAIL.  A WEAK WAVE MIGHT STALL THE FRONT...PROLONGING 
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY OVERNIGHT. DRIER AND COOLER 
AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 430 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 
1000 PM. INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED TO OVER 2000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF 
THE REGION...AND THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO 
30KTS...MAINLY OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE 
MODEST...GENERALLY 5.5-6 KM/C. 

RADARS INDICATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED 
IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...WHILE A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS TRYING TO FORM ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS. 
NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR REGION JUST YET...A 
BUT A FEW HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM BURLINGTON/S AND BINGHAMTON/S 
OFFICE WITH REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL.  

AT THE VERY LEAST...STRONG INSTABILITY...A REDUCTION IN THE MID 
LEVEL CAP (MID LEVEL COOLING)...WILL PRODUCE PULSE TYPE 
THUNDERSTORMS EASILY CAPABLE OF REACHING "SEVERE" LIMITS. SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS 58 MPH OR HIGHER...AND OR 
LARGE HAIL AN INCH OR MORE. THE THREAT IS HIGHER FOR STRAIGHT LINE 
WINDS.  

THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH BULK SHEAR TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED LINES OF 
BOWING SEGMENTS. EITHER WAY...WE HAVE THE WATCH OUT.     

TEMPERATURES WERE STILL FLIRTING WITH THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN MOST 
VALLEY AREAS. DEWPOINTS WERE AROUND 70...PRODUCING HEAT INDICES WELL 
INTO THE 90S. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 80S BUT EVEN 
HERE...HEAT INDICES WERE AROUND 90.   

THE COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY WORKING INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW YORK 
STATE...AND LOOKS TO CROSS THE CAPITAL REGION THROUGH MID 
EVENING...AND WORK INTO THE OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT. 

THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL LAG BEHIND...AS THE RIGHT REAR 
ENTRANCE REGION WORKS INTO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW 
FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AND THERE MIGHT EVEN 
BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WORKING ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. WILL KEEP 
LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY (AS THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY 
THEN). 

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY 
SOUTHWARD...50S WELL NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 
50S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD EXIT 
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND 
COOLER AIRMASS WILL INFILTRATE OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL 
SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS FROM LATE 
TODAY...TO AROUND +10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH 
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO 
TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER 
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...SO COMFORTABLE 
LEVEL OF HUMIDITY. 

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. 

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR CALM AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING 
DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S WELL NORTH AND 
WEST OF ALBANY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE FOG-PRONE AREAS 
(GENERALLY LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER). 

FRIDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE MIXING WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS. 
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN 
IN THE 50S.  

MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S NORTH. 

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS FROM A DISTURBANCE AND WARM 
AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS WILL 
CREEP UP TO AROUND 60...SO A LITTLE MORE HUMID BUT BUT STILL AT 
MODERATE LEVELS.      


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES 
AND OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN THERE MUST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. 

THE INITIAL VORTICITY (MID LEVEL ENERGY) ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH 
WILL APPROACH OUR REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM AIR 
ADVECTION...WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE 
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS 
GUIDANCE INDICATED. A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD 
TOWARD SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED...THERE 
COULD BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALOFT...SO WILL MENTION 
THUNDER AS WELL.  

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ON BY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER OUR 
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE ON MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THAT DAY WILL PROBABLY OFFER SOME 
DRY TIME.

THE TROUGH/UPPER AIR LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT GO 
AWAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL 
DRYING SHOULD DECREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A 
CUTOFF LOW...AND CERTAINLY...THERE COULD ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE (NOT 
DEPICTED AT THIS TIME)...COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL KEEP A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON 
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND FOR NOW...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF 
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. 

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS 
THE TROUGH PULLS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM CANADA.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MODERATED THROUGH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW. LOOK FOR 
HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN. 

LOWS WILL IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHTS...COOLING TO THE 
50S AROUND 60 TUESDAY NIGHT. 


&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN 
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NY...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL NY. 
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE 
VFR. TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND 
TIMING INDICATED IN MESOSCALE MODELS. IT LOOKS LIKE AROUND 21Z-22Z 
AT KGFL AND KALB...22Z-23Z AT KPSF AND 23Z-24Z AT KPOU. SOME 
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOHAWK/HUDSON RIVER 
INTERSECTION NEAR THE KALB AIRPORT COULD SPARK A LOCALIZED SHOWER OR 
STORM BEFORE 22Z BUT WILL WATCH TRENDS CAREFULLY.  WILL AMEND ONCE 
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND CAN BE TIMED MORE PRECISELY... BUT 
INDICATED MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS.  THERE COULD BE SOME 
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN BRIEF BURSTS AND AGAIN WILL AMEND IF THESE 
CONDITIONS LOOK IMMINENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE 
COULD BE GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS AROUND 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS 
AS WELL.

ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS END...KEEPING VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS FOR 
LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AT KPOU SINCE 
THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG MAY 
FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT 
ONLY INDICATING 6SM BR UNTIL WE CAN ANALYZE SHORT TERM TRENDS BEHIND 
THE FRONT AFTER SUNSET.  

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF 
ANY SHOWERS LINGER AROUND KPOU AFTER 09Z IF THE PROGRESS OF THE 
FRONT SLOWS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KT OR LESS COULD BE 
VARIABLE AND GUSTY TO 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS 
SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10 
KT...THE DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT AND TREND TOWARD NORTH.  
TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BE NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH 
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.
 
OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. 
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF 
SHRA...TSRA. 
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE A 
QUARTER INCH OR MORE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWERS COULD LINGER 
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. 

OTHERWISE...IT WILL TURN LESS HUMID ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING 
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 
SATURDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT. 

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY 
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.     

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH 
TONIGHT (POSSIBLY A LOT HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS). THE WIND 
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.  

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THIS 
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST 
OF ALBANY. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER 0.25 
INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE A FEW OF 
THUNDERSTORMS (OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS). PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS AIRMASS WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES THIS EVENING...BEFORE FALLING 
OFF LATER OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON LOW 
LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA. WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING 
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. 

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR 
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY 
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN 
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. 
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF 
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM









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