Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Albany, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4]



000
FXUS61 KALY 050204
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1004 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND 
TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES...COOLER CONDITIONS...AND SOME PATCHY 
FOG. THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
IN CONTROL...AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...AS
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL. LABOR DAY WILL FEATURE
INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CLOUDS JUST ABOUT GONE...EXCEPT FOR A FEW PATCHES AROUND THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...THAT SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL A BIT OF A DEW POINT GRADIENT FROM NORTH NORTHEAST
TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST. THERE IS ALSO A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WIND...THAT SHOULD TREND TO CALM THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS.
PREVIOUS AFD PROVIDES A FEW MORE DETAILS INTO WHAT IS EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT AND IS BELOW...

IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR WITH
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEY AREAS. A FEW
AREAS OF FOG WERE ADDED IN THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY...CT RIVER VALLEY...SRN VT AND BERKSHIRES. LOWS ARE
FORECASTED IN THE LOWER TO M50S FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY...ERN
CATSKILLS...TACONICS...AND NW CT SOUTH...AND U40S TO L50S NORTH OF
THESE AREAS. THESE MINS WERE CLOSE TO GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WITH
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TOMORROW...MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER
THE REGION. A FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE 12Z GEFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE H500
HEIGHT 1-2 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. PWATS WILL BE 1-2 STD DEVS
BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. H850 TEMPS ARE ONLY
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TOMORROW. H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +14 TO
+15C RANGE WITH LIMITED MIXING DEPTHS WITH THE SFC HIGH RIGHT OVER
OR NEAR ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. EVEN WITH MIXING JUST BELOW
H850...HIGHS WILL STILL BE 5 TO 7 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL WITH PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE AFTER THE MORNING FOG BURNS OFF. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO U70S OVER THE MTNS.
HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE WITH SFC DEWPTS
IN THE U40S TO 50S.

TOMORROW NIGHT...IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
ENVIRONMENT WITH THE SFC ANTICYCLONE NEAR NEW ENGLAND /CLR OR MOSTLY
CLR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WIND/. TRICKY FORECAST TO HOW FALL TEMPS
WILL FALL. HOWEVER...WITH MOST OF THE REGION DRY THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS ASIDE FROM ISOLATED CONVECTION YESTERDAY...TEMPS SHOULD FALL
OFF AGAIN INTO THE U40S TO M50S. THE COOLER SPOTS IN THE U40S
WOULD BE PORTIONS OF THE SRN DACKS...ERN CATSKILLS...AND SRN
VT...AND THE BERKSHIRES IN THE VALLEY SPOTS. SOME PATCHY VALLEY
FOG WAS PLACED IN THE FCST. IT MAY BE A MORE SHALLOW FOG RIGHT
ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS.

SUNDAY...TEMPS CONTINUE TO TICK UPWARD WITH BETTER MIXING...AND
WARMING H850 TEMPS 1-2 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL BASED ON THE 12Z GEFS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FCST AREA. H850 TEMPS INCREASING TO +15C TO +16C
WITH W/SW WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS AND OVER THE HILLS...AND M70S TO
AROUND 80F IN THE MTNS. THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC HIGH...AND THE
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITION FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. THE ONE SUBTLE FEATURE TO MONITOR IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS SRN QUEBEC/SE
ONTARIO/NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE DISTURBANCE WOULD MAKES THE
MID LEVEL FLOW SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL NORTH OF THE BORDER. A LAKE
BREEZE AND THIS DISTURBANCE MAY TRIGGER A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS NEAR
THE WRN DACKS. A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS WAS INCLUDED FOR NRN
HERKIMER/HAMILTON COUNTIES BASED ON THE NAM...AND TO AN EXTENT THE
GFS/ECMWF. OVERALL...THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA WILL BE
RAIN FREE.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO LABOR DAY...PERSISTENT PATTERN CONTINUES WITH
DRY WX...BUT INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE UPPER LEVEL JET AXIS
CONTINUES TO BE WELL POLEWARD OVER CNTRL QUEBEC...AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO HOLD ALONG THE EAST COAST /JUST LESS
AMPLIFIED OVER ERN CANADA/ WITH THE DOWNSTREAM SFC ANTICYCLONE
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND STARTING TO FUNNEL IN SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR.
AFTER LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO BE THE
WARMEST OF THE 3-DAY HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH U80S TO 90F READINGS IN
THE VALLEY AREAS..AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN AS 
UPPER ENERGY IN CANADA GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST. AS THE UPPER FLOW 
TURNS MORE ZONAL AND A MEAN TROUGH AXIS DEVELOPS IN THE MIDWEST AND 
OH/TN VALLEYS...VERY GRADUAL COOLING OCCURS AS UPPER HEIGHTS AND 
LAYER THICKNESSES SLOWLY DECREASE. 

THERE IS A CONSENSUS IN GUIDANCE FOR A WEAKENING SURFACE BOUNDARY TO 
TRACK THROUGH OUR REGION AROUND WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT 
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING DUE TO THE VERY WEAK NATURE 
TO THE FRONT.  SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
MAY ACCOMPANY THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH.

STRONGER UPPER ENERGY DEVELOPS IN THE GREAT LAKES BUT LESS AGREEMENT 
IN GUIDANCE AS TO THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE UPPER TROUGHING... 
WHICH WOULD AFFECT HOW MUCH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WE 
COULD GET IN THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIME FRAME.  THERE SHOULD BE 
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS.  WE WILL HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF THE POTENTIAL COVERAGE 
OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WE GET CLOSER...BUT THERE 
ARE SOME SIGNALS THAT THIS COULD BE A FIRST STEP TOWARD A GRADUAL 
PATTERN CHANGE TO A COOLER WETTER PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS 
MONTH...WHICH IS TYPICAL AS WE HEAD TOWARD AUTUMN.

HIGHS AROUND 90 TUESDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 80S HIGHER TERRAIN. BY
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
HIGHER TERRAIN. THURSDAY...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...70S IN
HIGHER TERRAIN AND ON FRIDAY...HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH
AROUND 70 IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z SUNDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
(MAINLY CLEAR SKIES) WILL PREVAIL AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD AND THE EASTERLY FLOW
SUBSIDES. LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR FOG
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT THE KGFL/KPSF TAF SITES (GENERALLY SOMETIME
BETWEEN 06Z AND 13Z)...WITH LITTLE OR NO FOG EXPECTED AT
KALB/KPOU. SOME ADVECTION OF DRYER AIR AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
NIGHT COULD LIMIT THE FOG A BIT BUT SOME STEAM FOG POSSIBLE ON
RIVERS AND LAKES WITH THE COOLING EXPECTED TONIGHT. TRENDS LATE
THIS EVENING WILL DETERMINE IF SOLID IFR NEEDED AT KGFL AND KPSF
AND IF FOG IS POSSIBLE OFF THE RIVER NEAR KALB. AFTER 13Z
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS (CLEAR SKIES) WILL RETURN TO ALL THE TAF
SITES.

WINDS WILL BE EAST/NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THIS EVENING...
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM WINDS TONIGHT...THEN LIGHT
SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
SUNDAY TO TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. 
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW...AND DOMINATE
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST
OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY. 

THE RH VALUES WILL HAVE ANOTHER EXCELLENT RECOVERY TO 75 TO 100
PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION TOMORROW MORNING...AND THEN LOWER TO
35 TO 45 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAXIMUM RH VALUES SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BE IN THE 90 TO 100 PERCENT RANGE WITH DEW FORMATION
ONCE AGAIN.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DIRECTION AT LESS THAN
10 MPH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING WEDNESDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TOWARD THE MID WEEK PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy