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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 220252
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1052 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION 
OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A FEW MORE SHOWERS. COOLER AND BRISK 
CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR LATE 
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS 
DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE 
WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1052 PM...MOST OF THE SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SHOWERS HAVE
SHIFTED EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION INTO THE TACONICS AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. THIS ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH THAT CAN BE SEEN ON SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS AHEAD
OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT FARTHER UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL NY. NOT MUCH
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT...AS DAYTIME HEATING HAS
BEEN LOST.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH
AND WEST OF ALBANY LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER WESTERN NY AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES MOVES IN. MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE DRY THOUGH ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRAILING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSTABLE ENOUGH 
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY TO FORECAST POPS OF 20 TO 40 
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...MAINLY DURING THE MORNING. ONLY 
THE FAR SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO BE DRY. BY 
LATER IN THE DAY...MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS 
FORECAST TO BE DRY...WITH ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS TO THE WEST. 
TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL TROF. 
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING UP 
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF DAYTIME 
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES EACH NIGHT...AS OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER 
THE INFLUENCE OF A SPRAWLING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE 
RIDGE LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY ESTABLISHED WEDNESDAY THROUGH 
FRIDAY...THEN EVEN STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS/ECMWF 
INDICATING 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO NEAR 590 DAM OVER THE 
NORTHEAST CONUS. SINCE WE WILL BE APPROACHING THE END OF 
SEPTEMBER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT OPPRESSIVELY 
HOT DUE TO LOWER SUN ANGLE AND LESS DAYLIGHT COMPARED TO DURING THE 
SUMMER.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD INITIALLY BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN 
START TO WARM AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. FULL OR NEAR-FULL SUNSHINE 
EACH DAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN 
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL 
REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE...WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 
40S INCREASING INTO THE 50S OVER THE WEEKEND. OVERALL QUITE A 
PLEASANT STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE LAST FULL WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK EARLY THIS
EVENING...WILL STEADILY ADVANCE EASTWARD AND CROSS THE TERMINALS
BETWEEN LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BROKEN LINES OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE
HUDSON VALLEY BETWEEN 00Z-03Z...BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR CONDITIONS. WILL
MENTION TEMPOS FOR KALB/KGFL/KPSF BUT ONLY VCSH AT KPOU SINCE IT IS
LESS CERTAIN SHOWERS WILL HOLD TOGETHER FARTHER SOUTH. 

THE COLD FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND THE SHOWERS BY A FEW HOURS...BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA BY AROUND 06Z. THEN VARYING MVFR/VFR
CIGS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WITH BKN CIGS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
MONDAY...BEFORE SKIES START TO CLEAR BY DARK.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT PRECEDING THE COLD
FRONT...THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO
SPEEDS OF 12-16 KT ON MONDAY. GUSTS OVER 20 OR EVEN 25 KT WILL BE
COMMON FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN LOWER TO 
BETWEEN 45 AND 70 PERCENT ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO 
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY...THEN 
WE DRY OUT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND BEGIN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF 
RAIN FREE WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. 

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TODAY. 
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO 
20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...BRINGING 
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS...
AMOUNTS WILL BE A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS 
OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ACROSS ADIRONDACKS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







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