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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 271415
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1015 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE 
REGION TODAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED 
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THIS 
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES 
TONIGHT TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT 
IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1015 AM EDT...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM WESTERN
NEW YORK TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND IS SLOWLY MOVING TOWARDS
THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING. A BAND OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY ARE PUSHING INTO NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION
AS WELL.

NOT ONLY IS THERE LIMITED MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH BUT
TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN RATHER WARM LIMITING THE INSTABILITY.
SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL GENERALLY ONLY BE 500-1000 J/KG TODAY.  

WE WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SPC HAS PLACED THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
AREA IN A /SEE TEXT/ FOR SVR STORMS...WITH A 5% PROBABILITY OF
DAMAGING WINDS. IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET WIDESPREAD SVR STORMS TODAY
DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND
MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF SHEAR...BUT A ROGUE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60.

ON THURSDAY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH MORE IN THE
WAY OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS ACRS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES NY LATE IN
THE DAY. IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
AREAS OF FOG. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE
FA LATE AT NIGHT...SO EXPECT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

ON FRIDAY EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST FROM THE FA
INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST AND BE LOCATED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NEW YORK LATE
AT NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND 
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIKELY STAYING NORTH OF THE MAJORITY OF THE 
FORECAST AREA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SOME SHIFTS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND WPC GUIDANCE IN THE PAST 24 
HOURS WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW POTENTIALLY BECOMING 
SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  THIS SHIFT WILL 
ALLOW DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC TO BUILD IN MORE OVER 
NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AND STALL A COLD FRONT FROM GETTING THROUGH BY 
LABOR DAY.

SATURDAY STILL FEATURES A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE 
FCST AREA WITH A SLIGHT OR LOW CHC OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND 
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  MUCH OF THIS DAY MAY END UP DRY WITH 
THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING REMAINING UPSTREAM.  THE ECMWF HAS BEEN 
FLIP FLOPPING ON THIS DAY WITH IT BEING WET ON THE PREVIOUS 
RUN...AND NOW DRY.  HOWEVER...THERE IS PRETTY GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE 
LATEST GFS AND CAN GGEM FOR A DRY START TO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. 
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AS SFC DEWPTS RISE INTO 
THE LOWER TO MID60S.  A WEAK IMPULSE RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY NEAR THE CANADIAN NY BORDER...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND NRN 
NEW ENGLAND MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD 
THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT.  AGAIN...LOW CONFIDENCE HERE WITH THE 
TRENDS OF THE STRENGTHENING MID AND UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE ATLANTIC 
SEABOARD. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE U70S TO L80S OVER THE 
FCST AREA...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH SOME U50S OVER THE 
HIGHER TERRAIN.

SUNDAY INTO LABOR DAY...AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ALLUDED TO...A 
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL 
MOVE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AND HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY 
WITH THE FLOW BECOMING QUASI-ZONAL OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE AIR 
MASS WILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.50 INCHES 
OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  CONVECTION INITIALLY WILL BE DIURNALLY 
DRIVEN NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT AS THIS 
SHORT-WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE I-90 
CORRIDOR...SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE.  LOCALLY 
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE ANOMALOUS PWAT AIR IN 
PLACE.  H850 TEMPS IN THE +16C TO +18C RANGE WITH SOME SUNSHINE 
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEYS ON 
SUNDAY WITH SOME U80S POSSIBLE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS IN 
THE M70S TO L80S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.  IT WILL BE 
A MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE U50S TO M60S.  LABOR DAY IS 
TRICKY WITH THE GFS HINTING AT THE FRONT BUCKLING SOUTH TOWARDS THE 
CAPITAL REGION AND MOHAWK VALLEY...WHILE THE ECMWF GUIDANCE KEEPS IT 
NORTH.  THE BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. 
A WEAK SFC TROUGH MAY MIGRATE THROUGH DURING LATE PM AND EARLY 
EVENING FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE W/NW BRIEFLY.  HIGHS LABOR DAY WILL 
RANGE FROM THE 70S TO L80S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY....THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LIFT BACK 
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY.  SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND 
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH SUMMER-LIKE HUMIDITY 
LEVELS PERSISTING.  TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY THIS MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH AND WILL BRING ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
PARTS OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT KALB AND KPOU.
MID AND  HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BTWN
12Z-15Z FOR ALL THE TAF SITES. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 4-6 KFT AGL RANGE WITH ANY SHOWERS/ISOLD TSRAS. VCSH GROUPS
WERE USED AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF BTWN 17Z-22Z FOR POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD
MAYBE SCT SHRAS OR ISOLD TSRAS. THE PROBS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.

THE FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE TAF SITES BY THE MID TO LATE PM. THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW AT LESS THAN 10 KTS...AND THE SKIES
WILL CLEAR TOWARDS 00Z/THU WITH JUST SOME SCT-BKN MID OR HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB.

SOME IFR/LIFR MIST/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGFL/KPSF...AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL DECOUPLE FROM THE SFC. THE BEST CHC FOR
THIS TO HAPPEN IS AFTER 06Z/THU. 

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE S TO SW AT 4-8 KTS PRIOR TO
NOONTIME..BEFORE SHIFTING TO W TO NW AT 5-10 KTS IN THE LATE
PM...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM SHORTLY AFTER 00Z/THU.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. 
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA. 
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE 
REGION TODAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED 
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL DISSIPATE THIS 
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES 
TONIGHT TO OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT 
IN COOLER AND DRY WEATHER FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TODAY...RECOVER
TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND FALL TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FA
TODAY. IT WILL BRING WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE HSA...WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A
QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON
AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN MOVES OUT TO SEA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLIGHTLY DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE/11/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11







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