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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 232013
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
413 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE 
AWAY FROM THE REGION...STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS FOR 
TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH 
CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATE TOMORROW INTO 
TOMORROW NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE 
NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN 
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 413 PM EDT...THE SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM THAT HAS BEEN
IMPACTING OUR REGION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IS NOW SITUATED JUST
SOUTH OF CAPE COD. THIS SYSTEM IS VERTICALLY STACKED...WITH THE
CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED RIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE LOW. A
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM HAS TRANSPORTED A LONG
FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE REGION...KEEPING
PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE. THE STRONG EASTERLY FLOW IS ALLOWING
FOR A FEW SMALL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON THE DOWNSLOPING SIDE OF
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE...IT IS FAIRLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
REGION...AND THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SOME STEADY RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
WITHIN THE DEFORMATION AXIS OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS STEADY RAINFALL
SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN...AS THE BEST FORCING WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS IS SEEN IN BOTH OUR
LOCAL HIRES WRF AND THE 3KM HRRR...AS WELL AS THE NAM12 AND GFS40
MODELS. 

ALTHOUGH THE STEADY RAINFALL LOOKS TO END THIS EVENING...A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THANKS TO THE CONTINUED CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE.
ADDITIONAL QPF LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CLOUDY...COOL AND DAMP WITH THE ABUNDANT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL ONLY DROP A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT
TEMPS...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 40S. A FEW UPPER
30S ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE COASTAL STORM WILL FINALLY START TO SHIFT TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA
ON FRIDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE DIGGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES KICKS IT
AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
A SHOWER OR TWO...ESP ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN AREAS. CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY START TO BREAK FOR SOME CLEARING LATER IN THE DAY FROM
WEST TO EAST...SO ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY...SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
RECENT DAYS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE BREAKS AND LESS RAIN...WITH LOW
50S TO LOW 60S...WARMEST IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S
TO LOW 40S.

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
START TO APPROACH THE AREA FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE AND WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED.
STILL...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE AREA...BETWEEN SAT AFTN AND SAT NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK
WARMER AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE FOR SATURDAY...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID
60S ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS ON SAT NIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
40S...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY 
BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL 
REGION. A NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE CLIPPER/DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING 
SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS OF MAINLY RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH A FEW SNOW 
FLAKES) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS INTO 
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION DURING 
MONDAY...THEN RIDGING ALOFT WILL HAPPEN ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE 
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SEASONABLE 
TEMPERATURES...BUT IT WILL TURN MILDER ON TUESDAY AND 
WEDNESDAY...WITH A LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS. 

BY WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER WEATHER DISTURBANCE...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS 
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.  
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK 
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING THE TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SPAWN ANY 
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THIS FRONT WILL LAY DOWN TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND 
DEPENDING ON HOW FAR IT STALLS OUT...WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT 
SHOWERS WILL AT LEAST SKIM OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...OR 
PERHAPS ALL OF OUR REGION. FOR NOW...ONLY ASSIGNED SLIGHT POPS 
EVERYWHERE THURSDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S 
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LOWER 60S 
WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MONDAY WILL SEE HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S 
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST...WARMING TO THE 60S ON TUESDAY AND 
WEDNESDAY...COOLING BACK DOWN TO MAINLY THE 50S ON THURSDAY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO AROUND 40 SUNDAY 
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...40S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER 30S 
TO MID 40S BY THURSDAY NIGHT. 

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH 
THE PERIOD WITH PRECIPITATION A LITTLE BIT BELOW NORMAL. 

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ALTHOUGH THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT-MODERATE RAIN WILL SHIFT WEST OF
THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHTER
RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST WELL INTO TONIGHT. THIS...COMBINED
WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING SLIGHTLY MORE INTO THE NORTH AND
DECREASING THE AMT OF DOWNSLOPING OFF THE SOUTHERN GREENS AND
BERKSHIRES...SHOULD ALLOW FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF OCCASIONAL IFR...ESP AT
KALB AND KPSF.

MVFR CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z/FRI...ESP AT
KGFL/KALB AND KPOU.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8
TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY:  NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX. 
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
TONIGHT...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

A LINGERING RAIN SHOWER OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT SOME
CLEARING IS EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO
50 TO 60 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 

AS A COASTAL STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA...ANY STEADY RAINFALL WILL
TAPER TO RAIN SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. MOST OF THE
LINGERING RAINFALL APPEARS LIGHT...AS THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS
ALREADY OCCURRED. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE A HALF INCH OR LESS. THERE
HAVE BEEN SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT RIVER LEVELS HAVE
REMAINED WITHIN THEIR BANKS...AND NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. 

A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND...BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS
AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







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