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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 191419
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1019 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. MILD AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
INTO MONDAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
BRINGS UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PATCHY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE ALONG THE NYS/CANADIAN BORDER IS POISED TO PASS THROUGH
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH PART OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY SFC TROUGH
PASSAGE...AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT OCCUR. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY MIX OUT AND DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...ALONG WITH AN
INCREASINGLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND...WHICH COULD REACH 25-30 MPH AT
TIMES...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

DEEP MIXING TO BETWEEN 825-850 MB IS EXPECTED FOR THIS 
AFTERNOON...SO DESPITE LOW LEVEL COOL ADVECTION...STILL EXPECT MAX 
TEMPS TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...ESP IN VALLEY 
AREAS...WHERE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED...WITH PERHAPS SOME 
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER 
ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT...WHERE ADDED DOWNSLOPING 
MAY GIVE A FURTHER BOOST IN TEMPS. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE A BIT 
COOLER...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MAINLY 40S ARE 
EXPECTED...WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER PEAKS POSSIBLY BARELY REACHING 
THE LOWER 40S. ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW 
ENGLAND...UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION. 
INITIALLY...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS MAY PERSIST AS THE LOW LEVEL 
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS SOMEWHAT TIGHT. HOWEVER...AFTER 
MIDNIGHT...THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE 
BUILDS OVERHEAD. THE LIGHT TO CALM WIND...COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES 
AND A DRY...CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO 
RATHER COLD LEVELS FOR MID APRIL BY SUNDAY DAYBREAK...WITH 
WIDESPREAD 20S EXPECTED...WITH EVEN SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS 
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME LOWER 30S WILL BE 
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. SHOULD WINDS 
PERSIST LONGER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WARMER MIN TEMPS WOULD 
OCCUR.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE 
REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING A LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO 
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION TO OCCUR. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY 
SKIES...EXPECT SUN AFTERNOON TEMPS TO REACH 60-65 IN VALLEY 
AREAS...WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL BE MUCH 
LIGHTER THAN TODAY...BUT WILL INCREASE A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON FROM 
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST...ESP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER 
VALLEY...PERHAPS REACHING 10-20 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR 
SUNDAY NIGHT...TRICKY CALL ON MIN TEMPS...AS A SOUTH WIND...SOME 
PASSING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS...AND OVERALL LOW LEVEL WARM 
ADVECTION MAY KEEP TEMPS MUCH HIGHER THAN SAT NT/SUN AM. HAVE 
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH 
GENERALLY LOWER/MID 30S EXPECTED IN VALLEYS...WITH SOME 20S ACROSS 
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE 
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...BUT MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT AS A 
WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...ITS FORWARD PROGRESSION TOWARD 
THE REGION WILL SLOW CONSIDERABLY. ASSUMING THIS OCCURS...MOST OF 
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD 
REMAIN N AND W OF THE REGION FOR MOST OF MONDAY...AND ONLY REACHING 
N/W AREAS MON NT...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS MON 
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. SO...KEEPING MOST AREAS OUTSIDE 
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS DRY FOR MONDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS 
INDICATED FOR MON NT FOR FAR N/W AREAS LATE. FURTHER LOW LEVEL 
WARMING SHOULD ALLOW MON MAX TEMPS TO REACH 65-70 IN MOST VALLEY 
AREAS...WITH MID 50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. 
A RATHER MILD MON NT IS THEN EXPECTED...WITH MOST MINS ONLY DROPPING 
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT WET IN MOST AREAS. A LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK EASTWARD 
ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED TO OUR NORTH 
AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OUR REGION 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR CAPE COD AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO 
BUILD EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THUS MOST OF TUESDAY 
AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK WET WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND 
COAST...HOWEVER OUR WEATHER WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AS MORE 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND 
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX CROSS THE REGION SO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
POSSIBLE. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN 
GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. 
ON FRIDAY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST FROM THE WESTERN 
GREAT LAKES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE FRIDAY. SO AFTER A DRY 
DAY ON THURSDAY EXPECT MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO END THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL AVERAGE OUT TO BE  
SEASONABLE FOR THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT HIGHS 
ON TUESDAY TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 70 
SOUTHEAST. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S 
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO 
BE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH READINGS FROM 
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE 
FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 30S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON 
THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60...ALTHOUGH SOME 
UPPER 40S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS ON 
THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH SOME 
UPPER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE 
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD 
WHICH ENDS AT 12Z SUNDAY. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SKC MUCH OF THE TIME 
WITH JUST A FEW PASSING CUMULUS CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AS A RIDGE 
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR REGION.   

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS UNTIL MID 
MORNING...THEN BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND GUSTY AT 
TIMES...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS ON TODAY. THE WINDS 
WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 25 MPH LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...
     LOW RH VALUES OF 25-35 PERCENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION EARLY
TODAY. IN ITS WAKE...A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP...WITH
SPEEDS OF 10-20 MPH EXPECTED...ALONG WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING
TO 5-15 MPH...AND SHOULD DECREASE TO 5 MPH OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SUNDAY MORNING WILL THEN TREND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH...AND INCREASE TO 5-15 MPH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN SHOULD RECOVER TO 75-90 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
WILL THEN DROP INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLY
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER HAS DROPPED TO MODERATE FLOOD
STAGE...AND IS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW MODERATE FLOOD STAGE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT FALLS COMPLETELY
BELOW FLOOD STAGE.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAIN STEM
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/JPV
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV








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