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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 301030
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

FOR TODAY EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
FA. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
THE FA. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING
ACROSS THE FA. DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO POP
ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA WITH A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN
PLACE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE FA FROM
THE WEST BEFORE THEY WEAKEN AS INDICATED BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S MAKING IT FEEL A LITTLE
UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE FA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY AS WE GO FROM INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
DESPITE THE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS
ON MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH HIGHS ON
TUESDAY IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS...850 TEMPS IN THE 
+16 TO +18 C RANGE...AND A LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD 
ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S WITHIN MUCH OF THE 
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FOR WED AND THU...85-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY 
REGION...WITH 80S FOR MOST HIGHER TERRAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE 
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SW VT MAY REMAIN 
SLIGHTLY COOLER...AROUND 80. HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE 
MODERATE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HEAT INDICES 
BOTH DAYS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 90S WITHIN THE 
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS 
FOR WED NT/THU AM AND THU NT/FRI AM SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST 
SOMETIME LATE WED INTO THU. IN ADDITION...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD 
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY SETTLE SOUTHWEST INTO THE 
FORECAST AREA ON FRI. OVERALL FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD 
REMAIN WEAK...HOWEVER THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WORKING 
IN TANDEM WITH THE WEAK FORCING TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED 
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ESP THU AND FRI. FRI MAX TEMPS MAY 
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO MORE CLOUDS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH 80S FOR MOST LOWER 
ELEVATIONS...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE 
NORTHEAST OR EAST FOR LATE FRI INTO SAT...WITH THE POSSIBLE BACKDOOR 
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE REGION. WILL 
INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...ALONG WITH 
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...ALBEIT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS...WITH 
MAX TEMPS ON SAT RANGING FROM 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN...TO THE 
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEYS. FRI NT/SAT AM MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO 
THE LOWER 60S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...AND PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PLENTY OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...SUCH AS KPOU...SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM EASTWARD ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL
BREAKS IN THESE CLOUDS PRIOR TO 09Z/SUN...ESP AT KALB/KPSF AND
KPOU. PERIODS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ASSOCIATED VSBY/CIG
RESTRICTIONS AT KPSF WHERE SOME MVFR/IFR COULD OCCUR.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY VFR THROUGH DAYBREAK. MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD THICKEN FROM W TO E BETWEEN 09Z-11Z/SUN.

AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY...DESPITE BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS MAY THIN OUT
LATER IN THE DAY FROM NW TO SE. ALSO...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY OCCUR
AT KPOU IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUN NT...THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT
FROM NW TO SE. A PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY ALLOW PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO 06Z/MON AT KGFL AND KPSF...WHERE SOME MVFR
VSBYS ARE INDICATED.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AFTERWARD...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME SITUATED OVER THE REGION
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION AND DROP TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT...AND WEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. 

NO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO FALL FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR
AUGUST...AND IF ANYTHING...MIGHT DROP A LITTLE MORE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11



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