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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 301811
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
211 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO 
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY INTO TOMORROW.  TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK 
WEEK...BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND COOLER 
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 150 PM EDT...EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE DOESN'T FEATURE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGE FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. JUST BATTLING THE PLACEMENT OF THE
LOWER CLOUDS THANKS TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH IS WASHING OUT
OVER THE AREA. CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO ERODE, ALBEIT SLOWLY. WHERE
THE SUN HAS BEEN OUT, TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY AROUND 70F. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AFTERNOON HIGHS -- BASICALLY A SLIGHT
LOWERING IN THE CLOUDY AREAS (PITTSFIELD & GLENS FALLS -- I'M
CALLING YOU GUYS OUT) AND A SLIGHT INCREASE AT SOME OF THE MORE
SUNNIER LOCATIONS. 

ON THE SHOWER CHANCE PERSPECTIVE THE NEXT 6 HOURS, RELIED MORE ON
THE MESO-MODELS -- SUCH AS THE RAP, HRRR AND LOCALLY RUN WRF
MODELS UP HERE AT NWS BURLINGTON. ALL INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ACROSS CENTRAL NY UP TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE ADIRONDACKS. LATEST
ANALYSIS DOES INDICATE WEAK INSTABILITY (LI VALUE NEAR 0 AND CAPE
200-400 J/KG) IN THOSE AREAS. THUS HAVE SOME 15-25% POPS FOR THE
FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED ACTIVITY.
MESO-MODELS ALSO HINTING AT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS OF VERMONT AND MOVING WESTWARD THIS EVENING INTO
AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. AT THIS POINT AM
DISCOUNTING THAT DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.

FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT, THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF THE
AREA. AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST IT APPEARS (ACCORDING TO 12Z
GUIDANCE SUITE) THAT IT WILL INTERACT WITH THE DEEPER ATLANTIC
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RESULT IN THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION. WITH AN OVERALL EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE, THIS MEANS SOME OF THAT WILL ADVECT WESTWARD ACROSS
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT AND INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE THUS
PAINTED IN AN INCREASING TREND OF POPS LATER TONIGHT IN THOSE AREAS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER
OVER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND TOWARDS NJ AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR
WEDNESDAY. THE PROXIMITY OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF CLOUDS...AND A LINGERING THREAT FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER WILL BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 ON WEDNESDAY. 

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY START TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SHOWER OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE IT
SHOULD BE RAIN FREE ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO 
SUGGEST A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW OFF THE 
NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE APPROACHING /AND AMPLIFYING/ TROUGH OVER 
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  DESPITE THE TRANQUIL WEATHER 
EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION TO 
KEEP MORE CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST.

THE UPSTREAM DEEPENING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH 
FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  COMBINATION OF A 
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ORIGINATING FROM 
THE GULF COULD PROVIDE THE REGION WITH SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN.  PER 
THE ENSEMBLES...QPF/S BETWEEN 0.50-1.00" ARE EXPECTED.  WHILE NO 
FLOODING IS EXPECTED...THIS WILL BE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL AS PORTIONS 
OF THE CATSKILLS...HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...TACONICS AND SOUTHERN 
LITCHFIELD COUNTY ARE IN 'D0' PER THE DROUGHT MONITOR /ABNORMALLY 
DRY/.  WE WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY 
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

FROPA IS EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY MORNING WITH BRISK AND COOLER 
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.  IN FACT...THE DEGREE OF COLDER 
AIR ADVECTING IN WILL ACTIVATE LAKE ONTARIO CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.  PER 
TRAJECTORIES...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL BE 
ACROSS THE DACKS.  THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN BROAD ACROSS THE 
GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP 
OUR PATTERN COOL AND UNSETTLED. 

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH 
PRECIPITATION NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...COMBINATION OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS
(DUE TO THE LOW CLOUDS/CEILINGS). SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT WITH SUNSET EXPECT THE LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO BEGIN TO EXPAND WESTWARD AND FILLING IN
THROUGH THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. ANTICIPATE MVFR, IF NOT IFR,
CEILINGS TO BE COMMON AFTER 06Z. MAY EVEN AGAIN SEE FOG DEVELOPING
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. EXPECTING A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AROUND
POU. AT THIS POINT JUST MENTIONED VCSH SINCE TIMING IS UNCERTAIN.
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY AS WELL. COULD
SEE PRECIPITATION AS FAR NORTH AS ALB AND PSF, BUT KEPT THE
MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT AT THIS TIME SINCE THE CHANCES ARE LOW.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. AGAIN, THE IFR CONDITIONS
WILL ONLY SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 14/15Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY..
18Z WED TO 00Z FRI...MVFR TO LOCAL IFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
00Z FRI TO 12Z SAT...PRIMARILY VFR
12Z SAT ONWARD...MVFR WITH SHOWERS. STRONG/GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND
LLWS ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

ANY SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. THOUGH
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HEAVIER -- PERHAPS 3/4" OR SO --- NO
SIGNIFICANT RESPONSES ARE EXPECTED AT THIS POINT ON AREA RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...NASH
HYDROLOGY...NASH







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