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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 241045
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE 
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS 
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED 
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM 
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY 
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...LAST EXPECTED BATCH OF LIGHT RAIN GRADUALLY
PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...TACONICS...
BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF
RAIN APPEARS TO HAVE LOST ITS CONNECTION TO UPSTREAM MOISTURE...AS
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS. SO THIS RAIN SHOULD TEND TO BREAK UP AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SO WILL HOLD ON TO HIGHER POPS
FOR THIS AREA THIS MORNING. WILL DECREASE POPS CONSIDERABLY BY
AFTERNOON...WITH LACK OF ANY DISCERNIBLE FORCING LEFT.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY AS WE 
WILL STILL BE IN A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME MUCH OF THE DAY 
DESPITE THE COASTAL LOW PULLING AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE 
CANADIAN MARITIMES. EVEN WITH A RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY 
RELATIVE TO NORMAL...TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 
TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS AROUND KINGSTON AND 
POUGHKEEPSIE MAY REACH 60 THOUGH DUE TO A DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WIND 
OFF THE CATSKILLS PROVIDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL WARMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT A SHORT WAVE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE 
REGION...ALTHOUGH ITS STAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. SO CLEARING SKIES 
ARE EXPECTED WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE. AS A 
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS BUT STILL 
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. 

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND 
ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND 
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. DESPITE FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH THIS 
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED. ALSO MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL 
ENERGY AND COLDEST CORE OF AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO THE 
NORTH OF OUR REGION. SO WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS FOR 
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY. WE ARE 
ANTICIPATING MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT 
HOURS WITH PLEASANTLY WARM TEMPERATURES DUE TO GOOD MIXING WITH A 
WESTERLY FLOW. VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY REACH 60 DEGREES OR BETTER 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  

THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT 
INTO SUNDAY...AGAIN WITH MOST OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS PASSING BY TO 
THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE 
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE A NORTHWEST UPSLOPE COMPONENT WILL AID IN 
ASCENT. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE COOLING BY SUNDAY MORNING SUCH THAT THE 
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS COULD SEE SOME 
SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER BLUSTERY DAY 
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL NORTHWEST FLOW. COLD ADVECTION 
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE CHILLY EVEN WITH 
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR END OF OCTOBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE 
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF 
SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES 
THROUGH...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...ALONG 
WITH A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 
40. HIGHS MONDAY GENERALLY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 35 TO 45. 
HIGHS TUESDAY MAINLY IN THE 60S. 

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE AND ITS  
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH AND CROSS OUR REGION.  
THE MAIN ENERGY AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK 
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...LEAVING A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT TO 
CROSS THE REGION AND PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS 
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE WEDNESDAY.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. HIGHS 
WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO THE MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. 

A SMALL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY 
WITH FAIR AND COOLER WEATHER...BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE 
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK 
NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING 
A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED (MAINLY CIGS) THROUGH NOONTIME 
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS AT KALB/KPSF 
DURING THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. AT KPOU... 
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE WILL VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. BETWEEN 
14Z AND 18Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR CIGS AS THE 
LOW PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO DECREASE. 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END 
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SATURDAY. IN FACT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME 
P6SM SKC OR JUST SCT CLOUDS FRIDAY EVENING.

A NORTHERLY WIND AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TO NW AT ALL 
THE TAF SITES EARLY FRIDAY...WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE 
DAY. TOWARD SUNSET THE SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO 7 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE 
REGION TODAY. THERE WILL BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS THIS 
MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BREAK WITH CLEARING EXPECTED 
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM 
THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS FOR MAINLY 
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 50 TO 65 
PERCENT. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 
100 PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 45 TO 
55 PERCENT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...DECREASING TO 5 
TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH 
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST. 
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY 
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO 
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS 
WEEKEND.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE 
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.     

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV







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