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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 192326
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
725 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT...STILL DEALING WITH A GOOD DEAL OF LAKE ENHANCED 
CLOUDS EVEN IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS ALREADY SLIPPED 
THROUGH. THE PROBLEM IS MOISTURE HAS GOTTEN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A 
LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. THE MOISTURE IS SHALLOW AND WITH 
TIME...MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP.

HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ALOFT...WERE 
STREAMING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK STATE. THESE WILL OVERSPREAD OUR 
REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK.

THE GUSTY WIND WILL RELAX IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 

THIS WHOLE SCENARIO WILL LEAVE US WITH A NARROW WINDOW OF OPTIMAL 
RADIATIONAL COOLING. WE ALREADY HAVE A FREEZE WARNING OUT FOR THE 
HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. IT STILL IS A GOOD 
BET MOST PLACES WILL REACH FREEZING OR LESS. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW 
CLOUDS HOLD A LITTLE LONGER THAN WE THINK...THAT COULD KEEP 
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MORNING IN SOME PLACES. 
RIGHT NOW...WE WILL LEAVE THE HEADLINES ALONE AS THE ODDS ARE 
BETTER THAN 50/50 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO 32 OR LOWER. 

THEREFORE...A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE FEW AREAS 
WHERE THE GROWING SEASON REMAINS ACTIVE...NAMELY THE GREATER CAPITAL 
DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. LOWS 
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 30S IN 
AND AROUND THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT.

FOR THIS UPDATE...JUST MINOR TWEAKING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS. 

ON MONDAY...CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A WARM 
FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE 
VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MUCH OF THE FA WILL REMAIN DRY ON 
MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DARK BUT DID DELAY THE ARRIVAL BY A 
COUPLE OF HOURS. IT WILL TURN MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8 TEMPS REBOUND 
TO +1 C TO +5 C BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE 
UPPER 40S NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 
50S TO NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD 
BEGINS WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG THE 
MODELS AVAILABLE . MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVE 
DEEPEN...THEN CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE 
OR LESS VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR TORONTO CA. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS 
RESULTED IN OVC CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN 
THE INCRG S-SE FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP 
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/ 
NJ COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN 
BY THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE 
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED. 

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO 
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES 
NT. 

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL 
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT 
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM 
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH 
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A 
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS. 

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH 
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A DREARY 
PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SEVERAL 
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH UNSETTLED DAMP AND RAINY 
WEATHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE JUST BEGINNING 
TO PULL AWAY FROM THE LONG ISLAND COAST...VERY SLOWLY. OUR REGION 
WILL REMAIN IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE (AREA OF ASCENT ON THE NORTHWEST 
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE). THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN ADDITIONAL RAIN 
THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY FRIDAY. 

IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE 
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT 
RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY RAIN EVENT. 

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FINALLY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND ITS 
ASSOCIATED VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE LOW...WILL BE MOVING INTO THE 
GULF OF MAINE. IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION. 
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BUFFET THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND 
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST 
OF ALBANY.       

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY TO PROVIDE DRY AND 
COOLER WEATHER. 

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY 
AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST 
SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE COOL BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S 
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST. 

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO 
UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.     

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE 
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A 
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE GUSTY 
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE WIND SHOULD BE LIGHT OR CALM WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS 
AND NO FOG. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN GOOD. 

MONDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDINESS. A 
SOUTH WIND WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS.

CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER MONDAY AS THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS 
BEGIN.  



OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. 
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA. 
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF 
SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD NIGHT ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO OR BELOW FREEZING 
REGION WIDE ALONG WITH FORMATION OF FROST. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP 
QUITE QUICKLY AFTER DARK. 

MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND 
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 30S IN THE 
VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.   

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER AIR LOW SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR 
WEATHER LATE MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF 
RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY 
FRIDAY. WHILE IT WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE CONSTANTLY RAINING...IT  
SHOULD MUCH OF THE TIME WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER 
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL. 

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. 

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA/HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA









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