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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 142001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
401 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY 
BRINGING FAIR AND COOL WEATHER. AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH 
OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING 
RAIN SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
BRING A RETURN TO FAIR WEATHER LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
EXPANDED FROST ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NORTHERN
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

AS OF 400 PM...FAIR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH AND SOME PATCHY CUMULUS CLOUDS 
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE HIGHER
TE RAIN TO THE LOW 70S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

A MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD SEPTEMBER NIGHT FORECAST. CURRENT DEWPOINTS
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE UPPER 40S. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
FORECASTS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE AREA AND
ABOVE NORMAL SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THIS HAS LED US TO EXPAND FROST ADVISORY
TO COVER ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY
CT. GEFS ENSEMBLE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR ALBANY IS 33F WHILE
THE SREF ENSEMBLES SHOW 43F. WE FORECAST A LOW OF 40 AT THE ALBANY
AIRPORT...SO THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS THAT ARE USUALLY 5 DEG F OR SO
COLDER IN THAN THE AIRPORT WILL LIKELY SEE FROST LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. STILL HAVE FREEZE WARNING FOR OUR
ADIRONDACK ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE EAST
COAST. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
BE A TAD WARMER THAN SUNDAY AS A RETURN FLOW SETS UP AROUND THE
DEPARTING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. EXPECT HIGHS GENERALLY TO BE IN
THE 60S WITH 50S IN THE HIGHER HILLS AND AROUND 70 IN THE MID
HUDSON AND LOWER HOUSATONIC VALLEYS.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME
QUESTION ON WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. 12Z NAM AND EURO HAVE 
THE LOW FORMING SOUTH OF AREA WHILE GFS HAS IT DEVELOP OVER
NORTHERN PART OF AREA. WHERE LOW FORMS WILL DETERMINE WHERE SWATH
OF HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS. FOR NOW SIDED WITH NAM/EURO SOLUTION.  THE
GREATEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN LIKE SATURDAYS SYSTEM
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...BETWEEN A
TENTH AND A HALF OF AN INCH.LOWS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S.

ON TUESDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL BE
EXITING THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING INTO
OUR REGION. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST SHOWS TRANQUIL WEATHER 
CONDITIONS. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE AS WE GO 
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE EXTENDED 
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL 
DYNAMICS THAT SUPPORTS UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY 
ACROSS OUR REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS WE GO INTO THE 
OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF 
COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM 
OUT OF CANADA MOVES IN OVER THE REGION AS SUPPORTED BY SOME 14/12Z 
GLOBAL MODELS. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE CHANCE OF FROST IN SOME AREAS 
WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR 
PARTS OF THE REGION. 
OTHERWISE...AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD 
INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING INTO THE 
REGION...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. 
POPS WILL BE ISOLATED TO CHANCE AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY AS GFS AND 
ECMWF PROBABILISTIC ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS LOW FOR PRECIPITATION 
AS WE GO INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH MODIFICATION TO 
THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE 
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND AS WE GO INTO 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO 
LOWER 70S ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. 

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...THEN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW 
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS PRIOR TO SUNSET.
MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE DUE TO THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH THE ANTICYCLONE. 

IN THE RADIATIVE COOLING ENVIRONMENT...SOME MIST OR FOG FORMATION
IS POSSIBLE AT KGFL AND KPSF TONIGHT. OUR FCST CONFIDENCE WAS THE
GREATEST TO PLACE LIFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS AT KPSF BTWN 08Z-13Z/MON.
ONLY MVFR VSBYS ARE FCST FOR SHALLOW RADIATIVE MIST AT KGFL AT
THIS TIME BTWN 08Z-12Z/MON.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN THEREAFTER WITH JUST SOME
SCT THIN AND FEW-SCT STRATOCUMULUS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE 
AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10
KTS...AND WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AROUND AND JUST AFTER SUNSET.
CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH THE SFC HIGH NEARBY WILL YIELD LIGHT AND
VARIABLE DIRECTIONS WINDS AFTER 12Z/MON.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR AND COOL WEATHER TO THE AREA TONIGHT
AND MONDAY. SOME FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH THE RAIN TAPERING OFF
TUESDAY MORNING. FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.
 
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RECOVER TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND
DROP TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT ON MONDAY...RISING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
AGAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...AND WEST AROUND 5 MPH
ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A WIDESPREAD TENTH TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN FELL ACROSS THE HSA ON
SATURDAY WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN A TENTH AND HALF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ038>040-042-
     043-047-048-051-054-058-061-063-082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/WASULA
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...SND
HYDROLOGY...SND







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