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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 010850
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
450 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...SOME ISOLATED TO 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY 
ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH HUMID CONDITIONS...AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE NEARBY ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 449 AM EDT...OUR REGION IS IN BROAD S-SW FLOW ALOFT...AS WE
REMAIN DOWNSTREAM OF A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/OHIO
VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. PLENTY
OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STREAMING NORTHEAST ALONG
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...WITH MAINLY MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS OUR AREA...AS THESE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STAYING JUST TO OUR
SOUTH.

WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE DUE TO YESTERDAY/S
THUNDERSTORMS RAINFALL...AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTERWARD...IT WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE DAY...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
RATHER SMALL DUE TO WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING IN PLACE. ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER THE TERRAIN DUE TO
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES...AND WILL DRIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST
DUE TO THE LIGHT FLOW IN PLACE. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...SO
THUNDER WILL JUST BE ISOLATED AT BEST...AND ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AND POORLY
ORGANIZED...WITH NO THREAT FOR ANY STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER.

TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WEAKENING AND FINALLY CROSSING OUR AREA BY SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A
SFC BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP AND ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY FOR SATURDAY. PWAT VALUES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE
LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF OUR AREA TOWARDS NJ AND EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

AS A RESULT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. POPS AREN/T ANY
HIGHER THAN CHANCE AT THIS TIME...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SOME DIURNAL INFLUENCES...WE CAN/T RULE OUT ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS EITHER. WHILE
THE WEEKEND PROBABLY WON/T BE A FULL WASHOUT ACROSS OUR
AREA...IT/S POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. 

TEMPS EACH DAY LOOK FAIRLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH FOR THE PERIOD...HOWEVER  
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST GROW AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER PART 
OF THE WEEK. THE GUIDANCE IS HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH THE STRENGTHEN 
AND TRACK OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON THE 
LONGWAVE PATTERN. ALSO...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DEVELOPED OVER THE 
TROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC...EAST OF THE SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES 
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER HAS BERTHA EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED 
STATES COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY 
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE FORECAST AND DETAILS ON BERTHA.

FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION 
CENTER FOR THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF SYSTEMS/BOUNDARIES TO MAINTAIN 
FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THE STALLED BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST IS 
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE WEEK...AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE 
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY USHERING A LESS 
HUMID AIRMASS. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAINED UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO 
THE NEW WORK WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS 
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS STATES BY MID WEEK AND HEAD 
EASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 
 
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. 

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADIATIONAL FOG IS FORMING...HAVE A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE 
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS. EXPECTED CONDITIONS TO 
LOWER TO IFR OVERNIGHT/LATE. FOG AND ANY STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF 
RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING 
THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...WILL HAVE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER 
THE REGION WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST. WHILE ALOFT...THE 
REGION REMAINS UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP 
DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER NO MENTION IN TAFS AS CHANCES ARE SO 
LOW. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER IT 
SHOULD NOT BE AS DENSE OR WIDESPREAD SINCE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS 
WILL BE STREAMING IN.

LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY 
MORNING INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS 
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 45 TO 55 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH. RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER BACK TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION. 

OVER THE WEEKEND...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT MOST OF
THE TIME...ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE AREA. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
RATHER ORGANIZED...AND WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WHICH WILL PREVENT
ANY HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY 
RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND
URBAN AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER
THE SAME LOCATIONS... ESPECIALLY ON THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







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