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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 311308
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
910 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER 
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
TODAY...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE THREAT FOR 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE 
TO THE NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE 
EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID 
CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 910 AM EDT...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST TO THE EAST 
OF SOUTH OF ALBANY. MEANWHILE...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS 
APPROACHING HERKIMER COUNTY. 

UPDATE INCLUDED TWEAKING NEAR TERM TRENDS...MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS 
FASTER CD AND SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE TIMING OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. 

A LINE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS ABOUT TO 
ENTER HERKIMER COUNTY. THIS LINE LOOKS TO TRACK EAST AND COULD 
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME. OUR NEW ALY RAOB INDICATED INSTABILITY ALREADY 
IS ABOUT 400 J/KG WITH WITH A 0-3KM BULK SHEAR ALREADY 35KTS. 
EARLIER PARAMETERS LOOK GOOD AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS 
THERE...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.   

CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED NEAR JAMES BAY OVER EASTERN 
ONTARIO. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BASICALLY EXPECTED TO SIT AND SPIN 
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH A VORTICITY MAX SWINGING AROUND THE 
BASE OF THE LOW TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN US. SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WORKING THROUGH OUR REGION 
THROUGH MORNING WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...MIDDAY CAPITAL REGION 
AND NORTHEAST...AND INTO THE AFTERNOON TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON 
VALLEY.  

IN ADDITION TO 500 HPA TEMPS BEING VERY COLD FOR LATE JULY /AROUND
-16 DEGREES C/...THERE WILL BE DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6
TO 6.5 DEGREES C PER KM...AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF AROUND 40 KTS.
EVEN THOUGH TD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...ENOUGH INSTABILITY 
WILL BE PRESENT...WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO J PER KG. OUR LOCAL 
HIRESWRF AND THE 3KM HRRR SHOW CELLULAR STORMS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS 
THE AREA BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH THE 
COOL TEMPS ALOFT...LARGE HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER WILL BE THE 
BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY STORM...ALTHOUGH SOME BOWING SEGMENTS COULD 
ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS AS WELL. THE 
HIGHER THREAT MAY BE ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA
/CLOSER TOWARDS THE UPPER LOW/ BUT WE CAN/T RULE OUT A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED
WORDING IN OUR GRIDS...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH THE DAY.

MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY...THANKS TO
THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AS
WELL AS THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO MAINLY
BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP...AS
THE WHOLE UPPER LEVEL LOW WOBBLES TOWARDS WESTERN QUEBEC. AS A
RESULT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH COOL LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S. 

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC. HOWEVER...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...AS A TROUGH AXIS DIGS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY...AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BROAD S-SW FLOW OVER OUR
AREA...WHICH WILL START TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL HELP ESTABLISH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...WHICH WILL HELP FOCUS SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT. THESE WILL
MAINLY AFFECT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...AND MINS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S T0 LOW 60S.

THE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER STAGNANT FOR SAT/SAT NIGHT....WITH A
TROUGH AXIS JUST UPSTREAM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY RIGHT OFF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...ESP DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTN
AND EVENING HOURS. IT WILL START TO BE NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID WITH
DEWPOINTS RETURNING INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN 
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK...HOWEVER THE 
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THE NEARLY 
STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS 
WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY 
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL HELP PUSH AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE SOME 
DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTHEN AND TIMING BUT OVERALL OUR WEATHER 
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO NEXT 
WEEK. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND DEW POINTS WILL RISE AHEAD OF 
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SO SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED. 
WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT A LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED 
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE 
SURFACE FOR MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO START OUT AUGUST ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEASONABLY WARM 
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 
50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COOLEST DAY SHOULD BE SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
     THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE KALB/KGFL/KPSF TAFS MIDDAY...

A POTENT SHORT WAVE IS ROTATING ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN 
CANADA AND WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED 
COLD POOL EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA. 

A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THESE 
FEATURES AS THEY APPROACH LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVE OVER THE 
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND 
GUSTY WINDS...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THEY COULD BECOME BRIEFLY 
SEVERE. 

WE HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT FOR CONVECTION WITH TEMPO GROUPS GENERALLY 
18Z TO 20Z IN THE KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TAFS. THIS IS WHEN THE HRRR 
INDICATED THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE TO TAKE PLACE. (AT 1130Z...THE 
HRRR WAS VERY NICELY CAPTURING THE CONVECTION ALREADY NOTED ON 
RADAR). 

AT KPOU HAVE USED VCSH WHERE LIKELIHOOD FOR CONVECTION IS LESS 
LIKELY...MORE IN THE 30-49 PERCENT RANGE.  

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY STORMS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE 
POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION...HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND HAS NOT 
BEEN INCLUDED IN TAFS. THREAT FOR CONVECTION SHOULD END BY LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON/ EARLY THIS EVENINGS AS SHORT WAVE MOVES OFF OUR 
NORTHEAST. 

WITH A WET GROUND...A CLEARING SKY AND LIGHT WIND...RADIATIONAL FOG 
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO 
DEVELOP AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THIS 
EVENING. WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD GUST UP TO 
30KTS OR BETTER...GENERALLY FROM WSW DIRECTION. 

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF MAINLY PM 
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT BETWEEN THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING A WETTING RAINFALL TO SOME LOCATIONS...ESP
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIP WITH
S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 MPH.

RH VALUES WILL RETURN TO NEARLY 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS AND DEW FORMATION. RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND
50 PERCENT ON FRI AFTN...WITH SOME MORE RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THANKS TO AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SITUATED NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...AS THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
QUICK MOVING...AND OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AS SOME
PREVIOUS TSTM EVENTS FROM EARLIER THIS SUMMER. THESE STORMS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS...BUT NO WIDESPREAD FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY 
RETURNING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD 
OCCUR...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE 
POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME 
LOCATIONS...ESP BY SAT AND SUNDAY...WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL BE AS HIGH 
AS 1.90 INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS









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