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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 210900
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
450 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER TODAY AS IT 
MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY 
MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE 
REGION. COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR MID 
WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...MANY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN OUR FORECAST AREA 
STILL INDICATE A SOUTHEAST BREEZE STILL HAPPENING IN THE RANGE OF 5 
TO 10 MPH. THIS BREEZE HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING A WHOLE 
LOT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALSO 
PREVENTED RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN FACT...GLENS FALLS WAS MILDER THAN 
ALBANY! (ALB/44 VERSUS GFL/47). 

IN OUR SOUTH AND EASTERN ZONES...THE WIND HAS DECOUPLED AND THE SKY 
WAS THE CLEAREST. THIS HAS ALLOW THESE AREAS TO INTO THE LOWER AND 
MID 30S. 

HIGH CLOUDS WERE STREAMING ACROSS MAINLY OUR NORTHERN AREAS BUT 
EVERYONE WAS DRY.

THROUGH SUNRISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL ANOTHER COUPLE OF 
DEGREES AND IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY... 
EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY UP NORTH OF GLENS FALLS. A FEW SPOTS SOUTH AND 
EAST OF ALBANY COULD DIP JUST BELOW FREEZING...BUT MOST AREAS WILL 
BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 35 AND 40 DEGREES. 

TODAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER FINE SPRING DAY. THERE WILL BE MORE HIGH 
CLOUDS AROUND THAN YESTERDAY AND THE BREEZE OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL BE 
SLIGHTLY STRONGER, AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS THIS 
AFTERNOON APPROACHING 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES LOOK MILDER THAN SUNDAY. 
THEY ARE PROJECTED TO REACH 65 TO 70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF OUR 
FORECAST AREAS...WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN 60-65 DEGREES. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MN. ITS 
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES EXTENDED TO ITS EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT 
LAKES...SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY HEAD EAST. BY TONIGHT...IT WILL SPREAD A FEW 
MORE CLOUDS INTO OUR REGION BUT ALL AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. A 
SOUTHERLY BREEZE SHOULD BE EVEN MORE PERSISTENT THAN TONIGHT...WHICH 
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING BELOW THE 40S IN MOST 
PLACE...GENERALLY IN THE 40-45 RANGE.

TUESDAY...THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS INTO OUR AREA. PW VALUES LOOK TO 
BRIEFLY SPIKE TO NEARLY AN INCH AS A LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. A 
PRETTY SHARP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SIGNATURE SHOULD HELP WRING OUT 
THIS MOISTURE AS SHOWERS DEVELOP. WE CONTINUE WITH CATEGORICAL 
POPS...MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT 
FEATURE. 

WE CHECKED INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND MOST MODELS INDICATED LITTLE 
OR NO INSTABILITY. FOR NOW...WE WILL EXCLUDE ANY MENTION OF 
THUNDER...BUT LATER FORECASTERS MIGHT DECIDED TO ADD THUNDER AT SOME 
POINT. 

HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY/S...60S TO AROUND 
70...WITH SOME UPPER 50S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. 

THE WIND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTHERLY 10 TO 20 
MPH...SHIFTING TO THE WEST BY DAY/ END WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS. 

COOLER AIR POURS BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. 
H850 TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL CREST NEAR +10C AHEAD OF IT...WILL DROP 
TO ABOUT -5C BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS BEHIND THE 
FRONT COULD ACTUALLY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS. AT THIS POINT...ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK VERY 
LIGHT AND CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE AN INCH OR LESS COULD 
ACCUMULATE. 

OVERNIGHT LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BACK TO THE 30S ACROSS THE 
HIGHER TERRAIN...40-45 IN MOST VALLEY AREAS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WITH 
A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL BE 50-55 IN MOST VALLEYS AREAS (UPPER 50S MID 
HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD)...BUT ONLY 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN.   

AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES FROM THE GULF OF MAINE...WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT STILL LOOKS BREEZY. THIS BREEZE WILL PREVENT OF FREE-FALL OF 
TEMPERATURES BUT IT WILL TURN CHILLY NEVERTHELESS. LOOK FOR 
OVERNIGHT LOWS UNDER A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY TO BE IN THE LOWER 
30S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE BREEZE 
WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER.  

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A RATHER PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE 
WESTERLIES WHICH TRANSITIONS TOWARD HIGHER AMPLITUDE BLOCKING ACROSS 
NOAM TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR 
SHOWERS /EVEN SOME SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE TERRAIN/ AS TEMPERATURES 
BEGIN NEAR NORMAL AND THEN SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL BY THE END OF 
THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR SPECIFICS...
A RIDGE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE A SEASONABLE DAY 
FOR THE REGION WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGHER AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD 
COVER LATER IN THE DAY.  AS A GOOD DEAL OF LATE APRIL SUNSHINE IS 
EXPECTED AND H850 TEMPS MODERATING FROM NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO 
AROUND 0C BY DAYS END...MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE 
50S WITH AROUND 60S FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

AS THE UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO 
EXHIBIT SIGNS OF BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN WESTERLIES...ITS 
ATTENDING COLD FRONT /TRANSITIONING TOWARD OCCLUSION/ WILL BE 
APPROACHING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  AS PER THE PREVIOUS 
FORECAST...WE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH 
MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TOO WARM.  
OVERNIGHT LOWS AVERAGE IN THE 40S WITH DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 50S 
AND LOWER HALF OF THE 60S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGINS TO SHOW  
DEVIATIONS AS THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES HIGHER AMPLIFIED AND RATHER 
BLOCKY.  TRANSITIONS INTO THESE SYNOPTIC FLOWS ARE PROBLEMATIC FOR 
MODELS AS WE ATTEMPT TO ASCERTAIN INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES THAT WILL 
IMPACT OUR WEATHER.  THE GFS WANTS TO DEVELOP A CUT OFF LOW OVER NEW 
ENGLAND AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE DGEX.  THE ECMWF IS MUCH 
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND COLDER 
AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION WITH A RETURN TO SUB ZERO H850 TEMPS.  
WPC SEEMS TO FOLLOW THIS IDEA AS WE TOO WILL LEAN IN THIS 
DIRECTION.  WITH STILL A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...THE CHANCE FOR SOME 
WINTRY TYPE PRECIP WILL EXIST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY AT 
NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK TOWARD FREEZING.  DAYTIME HIGHS WILL 
DROP BACK INTO THE 40S FOR THE TERRAIN AND LOWER HALF OF THE 50S FOR 
VALLEY LOCATIONS. 

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z TUESDAY.

A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND OVERNIGHT WITH FEW-SCT HIGH AND MID LEVEL 
CLOUDS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE THRUWAY.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY 
INCREASE AND THICKEN DURING THE DAY...WITH BKN CIGS OF 12-15 KFT IN 
PLACE BY THE AFTN HOURS FOR KALB/KGFL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 
AROUND 5-10 KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS DURING THE BEST MIXING IN 
THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY. 
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX. 
THU-THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. 
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOST OF OUR ENTIRE REGION IS SNOW FREE NOW (EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHES 
OF SNOW STILL LEFT IN THE WOODS OF THE ADIRONDACKS).

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUMS 
IN THE 20S...

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 60 TO 80
PERCENT TONIGHT. MINIMUMS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 75 TO 95 PERCENT MONDAY
NIGHT. 

THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TODAY 10 TO 15 MPH...WITH A FEW 
HIGHER GUSTS. A SOUTH WIND WILL BE 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT THEN INCREASE 
BACK UP TO 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY.    

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...THEN CONTINUE INTO 
THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES 
ACROSS THE REGION. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE 
OF RAINFALL. 

WEDNESDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH A WIND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS LOW 
PRESSURE VERY SLOWLY MOVES TO OUR EAST. 

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK CONTINUES.
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 
FLOOD STAGE TODAY SOMETIME AFTER 2 PM.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY ...THEN 
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES 
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO A 
THIRD OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. 

THIS RAIN WILL ONLY BRING MINOR WITHIN BANKFULL RISES ON SOME RIVERS 
AND STREAMS. 

DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY. 

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...FRUGIS/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV









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