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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 032336
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
736 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES ARE DISSIPATING...AND COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY TOO LITTLE TO ACKNOWLEDGE IN FORECAST THIS EVENING.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY FADING. LIGHT
WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROMOTE SOME PATCHY
OR AREAS OF FOG LATER TONIGHT...AND KEEPING THAT IN THE FORECAST.
JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST IN ADDITION TO TAKING THE
RAIN CHANCES OUT. MORE DETAILS ON WEATHER TRENDS LATER TONIGHT IN
PREVIOUS AFD BELOW...

A CANADIAN SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM S/SE QUEBEC OVERNIGHT.
THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA...AND SOME PATCHY FOG MAY MATERIALIZE. FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEERING FROM THE N/NE TO E/NE...SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY LINGER WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. THERE EVEN BE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE ALONG THE UPSLOPE PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/LITCHFIELD
HILLS. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS PORTIONS OF NW
CT UNTIL DAYBREAK. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
THE FCST AREA...AND ALLOW THE DEWPTS TO FALL INTO 50S FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN BERKS NORTH AND WEST...AND POSSIBLY SOME
U30S/40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK PACK. H850 TEMPS FALL INTO THE +11C
TO +14C RANGE FROM THE E/NE TO W/SW OVER THE FCST AREA WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO M60S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST...AND 50S NORTH AND WEST...EXCEPT FOR SOME U40S
OVER PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN DURING THE DAY
FROM SE QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE IN THE H850-H925 LAYER. THE LOW CLOUDS OVER SRN PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BURN OFF DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE
ANTICYCLONE. H850 TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 12C TO 14C RANGE. OUR
FORECAST WAS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAMMOS/GFSMOS GUIDANCE
WITH HIGH TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT...BUT
MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U60S TO U70S OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT LATE SUMMER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SETTING UP...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE
MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. WE HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE FCST
GRIDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U40S TO L50S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION WITH MID AND U50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

SATURDAY...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OVER THE FCST AREA TO START
THE DAY WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING. ACTUALLY...A
CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE SETS UP OVER UPSTATE NY. MIXING DEPTHS
LOOK TO BE LIMITED DURING THE DAY...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. H850 TEMPS ACCORDING TO THE GFS WILL
BE IN THE 13C TO 15C RANGE. THE STRONG SYNOPTIC SINKING OR
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FCSTS DUE TO
THE LIMITED MIXING WITH U70S TO L80S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
FCST AREA...WITH U60S TO M70S OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK NICE WITH THE RIDGE IN CONTROL.
THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE WITH ANOTHER RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT LIKELY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS. SOME U40S ARE POSSIBLE OVER SRN VT...THE NRN
BERKS...AND SRN DACKS. SOME SHALLOW RADIATIVE FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AGAIN. SUNDAY...TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
START TO INCREASE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SETTING
UP E/SE OF CAPE COD. HIGHS WILL BE IN LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO LABOR DAY WITH A RIDGE OF 
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT THE RIDGE IS 
FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT A BIT...BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE
AROUND +1 TO +2 STDEV ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH MID LEVEL WARMTH KEEPING A
CAP ON ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SINCE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...FULL SUNSHINE AND A WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN MOST VALLEYS
LOCATIONS LABOR DAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. THEN A WEAK COOL FRONT APPROACHES FOR 
TUESDAY...BUT COULD COMPLETELY WASH OUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR 
AREA AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE GFS IS 
SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE 
FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING. WILL MENTION 
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FROM AROUND THE HUDSON VALLEY 
WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH 
HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEPING UP AS WELL. 

A SOMEWHAT STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...SO 
WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS. IT STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW COOL THE AIR WILL BE 
BEHIND THIS FRONT...AS THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE MAY STILL REMAIN ALONG 
THE EAST COAST. SO FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES 
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KGFL/KPSF/KPOU/KALB TAF SITES
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. 

LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MVFR/IFR FOG/STRATUS
POSSIBLE AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG AT
KPOU AND KALB. HOWEVER THERE COULD BE A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT THAT COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND CAN
AMEND LATER IF CONDITIONS LOOK A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC. AFTER 14Z
FRIDAY...KALB AND KGFL SHOULD BE VFR ONCE AGAIN...WHILE AN MVFR
CEILING COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO BREAK UP AT KPSF AND
KPOU.

LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT TRENDING TO CALM. NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH 
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW 
ENGLAND TOMORROW WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.  THE SURFACE 
HIGH WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...AND 
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER.

AN EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY IS LIKELY TOMORROW MORNING WITH MAXIMUM
RH VALUES OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER EXCELLENT RECOVERY OF
95 TO 100 PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION SATURDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW...AND BECOME LIGHT TO CALM FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH FROM ANY OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. 

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO THE MID WEEK. 

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



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