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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 252022
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
422 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN
SHOWERS. IN ITS WAKE...A BRISK AND COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED. DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS RETURN ON MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES LATER TUESDAY EVENING. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT...SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE
UNDER A GREAT DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED
NICELY...WELL INTO THE 60S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPPER 50S
FOR THE TERRAIN. FOR THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA...CLOUDS HAVE QUICKLY INCREASED AS REGIONAL RADARS SHOW AN
APPROXIMATELY 100 MILE WIDE BAND OF SCT-BKN SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY INTO THE TUG HILL AND EASTERN
LAKE ONTARIO. AS A POWERFUL UPPER JET /OVER 150KTS/ DIVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL LAKES REGION AND LEFT EXIT REGION DYNAMICS INTO
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NE...EXPECTATION IS FOR THESE SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE EXPANDING INTO THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY
FORECAST POINT TOWARD THIS INITIAL BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION WITH ANOTHER BATCH DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF
THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY BE DUE TO THE
UPPER SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS UPSTATE NY.
FURTHERMORE...AS H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TO OR BELOW 0C...LAKE EFFECT
ENHANCEMENTS WILL LIKELY AID IN THESE SHOWERS AS WELL. LOOKING
CLOSER AT THUNDER POTENTIAL...EARLIER TODAY WE DID OBSERVE A
COUPLE OF CG/S JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. SHOWALTER VALUES AT
THAT TIME WERE BETWEEN POSITIVE 1-2C. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ACROSS
THE DACKS REGION WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL BE A LITTLE STEEPER AND
ENHANCED LIFT FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER JET ORIENTATION.  

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL VARY DUE TO CLOUD COVERAGE AS THERE WILL BE
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...HOWEVER...WIND MAGNITUDES WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ELEVATED. GUIDANCE NUMBERS A TAD WARMER AS WE WILL BLEND MOS WITH
PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRIDS. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...AS MENTIONED IN THE EXCELLENT PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION...THE POTENT UPPER JET CORE WILL BE OVER THE REGION AS
STRONG H500 SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS UPSTATE NY. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE BEST CONCENTRATION OF THOSE SHOWERS INTO THE
TERRAIN /ESPECIALLY DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO/. H850 TEMPS PLUNGE
BACK TO BELOW 0C WITH FAIRLY STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
FURTHERMORE...WIND MAGNITUDES NEAR THE MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS NEAR
H875 SUGGEST WE WILL EFFECTIVELY TAP INTO 30KT WINDS. SO A RATHER
BRISK DAY IS EXPECTED ALONG WITH THOSE SHOWERS. DUE TO THE
CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND BRISK WINDS...TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND
40S ELSEWHERE. 

SUNDAY NIGHT...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER...MAINLY ACROSS
THE TERRAIN...AND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS...SOME WET SNOW IS
POSSIBLE TO MIX IN ACROSS THE TERRAIN. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO
BREAK UP FURTHER INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT WHICH WILL
SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. CLOUD BE RATHER CHILLY NIGHT
WITH MAINLY 30S FOR THE REGION /NEAR 40F FOR ALONG THE HUDSON/MOHAWK
RIVER BASINS/. 

MONDAY...MODERATING THERMAL COLUMNS WILL BE UNDERWAY AS SURFACE
RIDGE AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD IMPROVE OUR SKY CONDITION
FURTHER. SURFACE TEMPERATURE RESPONSE SHOULD ALLOW VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60F FOR MID HUDSON
VALLEY LOCATIONS AND UPR 40S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MONDAY NIGHT...MODEL SUITE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PASSAGE OF
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES WITH THE BEST LOWERING OF THE CPD/S MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. IN THESE LOCATIONS...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVERAGE AS OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN MAINLY INTO THE 40S UNDER
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION. 

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING 
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT...EXPECTED TO AFFECT OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT 
AND WEDNESDAY.  SO...INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND SUN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS 
WELL INTO THE 60S. 

UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACKS INTO THE REGION FROM 
THE GREAT LAKES AND CANADA...WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE 
COLD FRONT...THEN COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT.  HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 
MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.  TRAILING UPPER ENERGY DIVES SOUTH 
OUT OF CANADA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...POTENTIALLY BECOMING QUITE 
A DYNAMIC UPPER CUT OFF LOW.  HOWEVER...THE VARIOUS SETS OF GUIDANCE 
SUGGEST VERY DIFFERENT TRACKS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT 
DIFFERENCES IN POTENTIAL OBSERVED WEATHER IN OUR REGION.  

FOR NOW THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES SEEMS TO BE TRACKING RIGHT OVER 
THE INTERIOR NORTHEASTERN U.S. OR THROUGH THE CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA... 
OR ANYWHERE IN BETWEEN. AS THE UPPER ENERGY DIVES SOUTH THURSDAY AND 
FRIDAY...WHEREVER IT ENDS UP...HOWEVER STRONG OR WEAK IT IS...AND 
WHATEVER THE TIMING EVENTUALLY IS...GENERALLY MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN 
WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.  MIDLEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS DEVELOP 
AND THICKEN AS MOISTURE IS INCREASINGLY DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO THE 
DEVELOPING UPPER ENERGY...AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY UPPER JET 
ENERGY.

SO...WITH SUCH A HUGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE OUT IN THE 6-7 DAY TIME 
FRAME...JUST GOING WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AND 
PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING TO CHANCE BY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY 
NIGHT...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY.  SOME 
POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGHS 
THURSDAY IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO MID TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.  HIGHS 
FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S NORTH AND AROUND 50 TO LOWER 50S 
SOUTH. BY SATURDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID TO UPPER 
40S SOUTH.

WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR NEXT WEEKEND TO SEE IF SOMETHING 
SIGNIFICANT DOES DEVELOP OR IF LIMITED UPSTREAM DATA THIS FAR OUT 
CAUSED GUIDANCE TO CREATE A PHANTOM THAT MAY DISAPPEAR AS WE GET 
CLOSER. THERE IS STILL QUITE A RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES.  

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROKEN SKIES WILL BECOME OVERCAST THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. CLOUD BASES GENERALLY VFR BUT MVFR AT OUR HIGHER ELEVATION
TAF SITE KPSF.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED FROM THIS
EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT AND THEN AN UPPER LEVEL
COLD POOL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. GIGS TEMPO IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS
ALTHOUGH KPSF MAY SEE BRIEF IFR.

WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WINDS 
WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD 
FRONT TONIGHT AND INCREASE IN SPEED WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS ON SUNDAY.
     
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS.

A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL IMPACT THE
REGION WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BRISK AND
COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ARE
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...BEFORE
SLOWLY FALLING TO 50 TO 70 PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA


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