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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 221126
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
626 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION 
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TO THE 
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH 
AND WEST OF ALBANY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MILDER AIR TO THE 
REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALONG WITH SOME RAINFALL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EST SATURDAY TO 5
AM EST SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

AS OF 630 AM EST...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS. IN FACT...SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS
ARE CURRENTLY IN THESE NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO THE CLOUDS...IN THE
LOWER 20S...WHILE AREAS ACROSS NW CT AND WESTERN MA ARE AMONG THE
COLDEST...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID TEENS.

SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING FOR AREAS S AND E OF
ALBANY...WHILE SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH MID MORNING. CLOUDS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO INTENSIFYING MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.

IN ADDITION...A PAIR OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES...ONE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...WILL PROVIDE ENHANCED DYNAMICAL LIFT AS WELL BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND AREAS MAINLY W OF THE HUDSON RIVER FROM ALBANY
NORTH BETWEEN 3 AND 5 PM.

FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY START AS A
SNOW/SLEET MIX ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND A SLEET/RAIN MIX IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...AS SOME WET BULB COOLING
DEVELOPS...THE CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL INCREASE AROUND AND
ESP AFTER SUNSET FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
ALSO...DESPITE TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING TODAY...THE
GROUND WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD...SO IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY EASY FOR
LIGHT ICING TO DEVELOP ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FURTHER S AND E...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE...THE THREAT FOR
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS E OF THE
HUDSON RIVER.

TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...AND MID/UPPER 30S FOR VALLEY AREAS. A BRISK SOUTH
WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM
ALBANY SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL
MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FOR AREAS
NEAR AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY
ALSO OCCASIONALLY REACH AREAS SOUTH OF I-90...INTO THE SE
CATSKILLS...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT HYDROMETEORS REACHING THE SFC SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF
ICE PELLETS OF LIQUID...BUT FOR MANY AREAS N AND W OF ALBANY...SFC
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL.
AGAIN...WITH THE GROUND SO COLD...UNTREATED SURFACES COULD BECOME
RATHER SLIPPERY. THE AREA WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT REPRESENTS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO WATCH RADAR TRENDS AND MESONET SFC
OBS CLOSELY...AS SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR EVEN
OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT AND WESTERN MA. MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1
AM EST...BEFORE GRADUALLY RISING THEREAFTER.

SUNDAY...THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD PASS NORTH AND EAST OF
THE REGION BY EARLY/MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL FORCING
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HAVE SIDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS...WITH MAINLY 40S
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A STRONGER MID LEVEL IMPULSE...CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO DAMPEN AS IT
TRACKS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ALLOW A BURST
OF ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT. BEFORE THIS OCCURS...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE
EVENING MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER
30S...BEFORE RISING AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE RAPIDLY INCREASING
CLOUDS. MODERATE RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH DAYBREAK
MONDAY. RAINFALL AMTS OF ONE TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IN ADDITION...GIVEN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE REGION LATE AT
NIGHT...WITH THE 00Z/NAM12 SUGGESTING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST H850 WINDS
OF 60-70 KT OVER SW NEW ENGLAND AND SE NY...SOME RATHER WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS AND BERKSHIRES...AND POSSIBLY THE
CATSKILLS...WITH SOME WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 40-45 MPH.

MONDAY...RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY EARLY IN THE MORNING
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THAT LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF FORCING WILL BE PRESENT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
AFTERNOON...AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAIN WELL
TO OUR WEST. SO...ALTHOUGH HAVE INDICATED SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS...MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN RAIN FREE.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE FORM OF LOW
CLOUDS IN MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD STILL BECOME RATHER MILD BY
LATE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN
MOST VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 50S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOULD ANY
BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP...MUCH WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS MAINLY DRY AND ENDS MAINLY DRY. IT IS 
THE MIDDLE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SURROUNDING THE 
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WHICH MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF 
HAS TRACKED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH THE COASTAL LOW THE LAST 
COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS SURFACE WAVE GETS CAPTURED BY UPPER TROUGH 
THE GFS AND GGEM ARE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SURFACE 
WAVE THUS THE REASON FOR ONLY GOING WITH CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT. 
IN ADDITION TO BEING FARTHER OUT TO SEA...BOTH THE GFS AND GGEM HAVE 
A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM. AT 12Z THURSDAY ECMWF HAS A 985 MB LOW ALONG 
DOWNEAST MAINE WHEREAS THE GFS HAS A 1004 MB LOW SOUTHEAST OF NOVA 
SCOTIA AND THE GGEM IS EVEN WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH A 
1007 MB LOW ESSENTIALLY OUT TO SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF 
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH ONLY THE ECMWF SHOWING AN 
IMPACT ON FA WILL ONLY MENTION A CHANCE OF A STORM POTENTIALLY 
IMPACTING THE FA IN THE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME IN THE 
HWO.

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS 
FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM 
PERIOD. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S 
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST...LOWERS 30S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S 
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST 
ON THURSDAY AND UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S ON FRIDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE 
FROM THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST 
MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO MID 30S SOUTHEAST TUESDAY 
NIGHT....20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 
UPPER 20S THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
MIXED PCPN TO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET EXCEPT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT KGFL
AND KPSF.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z
SUNDAY. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING IN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z/SAT.
THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS AROUND FROM KALB NORTH AND
EAST AFTER 20Z/SAT...AND THESE WERE ADDRESSED WITH A VCSH FOR
KALB/KGFL/KPSF FOR NOW. THIS EVENING THE PCPN WILL BEGIN AND WHILE
CIGS WL REMAIN VFR...MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT KGFL/KALB AND
KPSF. ONCE AGAIN THE PCPN TYPE WL BE MAINLY -RAPL EXCEPT FOR
-FZRAPL AT KGFL AND KPSF.

EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8-12
KTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE
TO 20 KTS AT KALB. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 4 TO 10 KTS
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST 
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>042-047-048-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







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