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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 162038
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
438 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. A COLD AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
SETTING THE STAGE FOR AREAS OF FROST ALONG WITH SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS
WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING AS HIGHER PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST. IT WILL GET CHILLY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE GROUND HAS REMAINED
WET/DAMP DUE TO CLOUD COVER TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH
AREAS OF FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. 

THE SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
REGION AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT OPENING THE DOOR TO COLDER AIR. 
MAINLY ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS EXPECTED...HAVE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MENTIONED WITH THE FRONT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY PASSING OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WITH
HEIGHTS RISING ALOFT.

850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP TO -2 TO 3 DEGREES
CELSIUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. WE WILL NEED
FROST AND LIKELY FREEZE HEADLINES. HAVE CONTINUED TO HIGHLIGHT
THREAT IS OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS INCLUDING THE LAKE GEORGE
AREA...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND FROST FOR REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH EACH DAY A BOT COOLER THAN
THE ONE BEFORE. LOOKING AT HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. 

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DRY START IS IN STORE DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT SHOWERS BECOME A 
THREAT GOING INTO THE WORK WEEK.  HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE 
COAST...GIVING WAY TO LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL TRACK FROM ABOUT LAKE 
SUPERIOR NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH MONDAY.  A 
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF ITS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RAPID 
INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITY OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INCREASINGLY MILD AND PLEASANT.

AT THE TEMPERATURE PEAK...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE MAINLY FROM THE 
UPPER 60S THROUGH THE UPPER 70S.  THE WEEKEND NIGHTS WILL BE MUCH 
MILDER AS WELL.  FRIDAY NIGHTS LOWS WILL BE IN ONLY THE MID 30S TO 
MID 40S RANGE.  BY SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...THEY WILL RANGE FROM 
AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND 
GREENS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AROUND A 15 
DEGREE REBOUND OVERALL.

WHEN THE COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT... 
TEMPERATURES DIVE BACK TO AROUND THE SEASONABLY COOL LEVELS OF THE 
PAST 24 HOURS.  VERY LOW CAPES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD MEANS THERE ARE 
NO CONCERNS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...EXCEPT PERHAPS AT THE VERY 
ONSET OF SHOWERY ACTIVITY SUNDAY...MAINLY CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACK 
REGION AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER 
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED.  DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR TUESDAY WITH 
INCREASING...THOUGH NOT NECESSARILY ABUNDANT...SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR FLYING CONDITIONS THIS 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE IFR/MVFR FOG DEVELOPS AT THE TAF 
SITES TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE PLACED TEMPO GROUPS AT THE TAF SITES FOR 
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 18Z-20Z. AFTERNOON 
MIXING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR FLYING CONDITIONS BY 20Z WITH GRADUALLY 
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE 
NORTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE 
REGION...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CLEAR WITH CALM WINDS. 
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN IFR/MVFR FOG AT 
THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AMIDST THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING 
CONDITIONS. EXPECT IFR FOG TO DEVELOP FIRST AT KGFL AND KPSF IN THE 
03-06Z TIMEFRAME...AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HAVE GONE WITH MVFR FOG AT KALB AND KPOU AS 
SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING SHOULD LIMIT IFR FOG FORMATION...ALTHOUGH 
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS TONIGHT. 

VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF 
PERIOD AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH FEW-SCT CUMULUS AROUND 5 KFT AS HIGH 
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS TONIGHT WILL 
TREND TOWARDS CALM WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY 
LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. 
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. 
THU NIGHT-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM
VALUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 45 TO
55 PERCENT RANGE...WITH LOWER VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS 
ARE EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. 

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949... 
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA






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