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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 261153
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
650 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS IN VIRGINIA AND NORTH 
CAROLINA WILL REDEVELOP OFF CAPE HATTERAS LATER TODAY...THEN SLOW 
TRACK TO THE EAST OF LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND EAST OF 
CAPE COD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS STORM WILL BRING A CRIPPLING 
BLIZZARD TO LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE REMAINDER OF 
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK. TO THE 
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MODERATE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY...AS WELL AS 
FULTON COUNTY AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO WINTER 
ADVISORIES.

ALL OTHER HEADLINES OF WINTER STORM WARNINGS (AND THE BLIZZARD 
WARNING FROM LITCHFIELD COUNTY) REMAIN THE SAME...1PM TODAY THROUGH 
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.   

THE ONLY UPDATE WITH THIS ISSUANCE (OTHER THAN TWEAK HOURLY GRIDS) 
WAS TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO THE FACT THE 
CLOUDS WERE THICKENING PRETTY FAST. 

AS 645 AM...HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUED TO STREAM IN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING 
LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL VA. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL WEAK...AND SO 
FAR...ONLY PRODUCING A SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF 
SNOW ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA...AND A RAIN SNOW MIX FURTHER SOUTH OF THE 
MASON DIXON LINE. 

TEMPERATURES WERE A LITTLE BELOW ZERO WELL NORTHWEST OF 
ALBANY...SINGLE NUMBERS TO AROUND 10 IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND 
SURROUNDING AREAS...TEENS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. 

THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP DURING THE DAY. INITIALLY...SOME LIGHT 
SNOW WILL ATTEMPT TO MARCH NORTH INTO AREAS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL 
REGION. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE FROM EASTERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE 
TO CREST SOUTHWARD SO IF ANYTHING...DRY AIR WILL INITIALLY WIN 
OUT...KEEP MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER THROUGH 
MIDDAY OR EVEN MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH MAYBE A FEW FLURRIES 
FURTHER NORTH.

IT WILL BE COLD DAY WITH LITTLE OR NO SUNSHINE...SO TEMPERATURES 
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE TEENS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION 
NORTHWARD...AROUND 20 TO THE SOUTH OF ALBANY. 

THE 06Z GFS AND ESPECIALLY 06Z NAM ACTUALLY INCREASED THE QPF 
COMPARED TO THE 00Z RUNS OF EACH. THE 00Z RUNS WERE PRETTY LIGHT 
FROM ALBANY NORTH AND WEST. THE 06Z RUNS...WHILE NOT QUITE AS HEAVY 
AS OLDER GUIDANCE MAYBE SIGNALED A TREND TO HEAVIER AMOUNTS AGAIN. 
IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW FAR WESTWARD THE DEFORMATION BAND CAN GET. 
IT STILL LOOKS AS IF THE GOOD FGEN BAND (WITH 2-4 INCH PER HOUR 
SNOWFALL RATES) SHOULD STAY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-84 CORRIDOR. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A MAJOR NOR'EASTER TO IMPACT REGION...BRINGING A BLIZZARD WITH UP TO 
TWO FEET OF SNOW IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. HEAVY SNOW WITH SOME BLOWING 
AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL IMPACT THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE SARATOGA 
REGION SOUTHWARD...WITH MORE THAN A FOOT OF SNOW TO FALL SOUTH OF 
ALBANY...8-12 INCHES ALBANY NORTHWARD.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY (INCLUDING ALL OF 
FULTON COUNTY) AS WELL AS NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY WAS CONVERTED INTO 
AN ADVISORY. THE REMAINDER OF THE HEADLINES FOR WINTER STORM 
WARNINGS (AND THE BLIZZARD IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY) REMAIN THE SAME. 
ALL TIMES REMAIN THE SAME STARTING AT 100 PM AND ENDING BY MIDNIGHT 
TUESDAY).  

BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING THE FLOW 
TO BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN 
ATLANTIC MOISTURE.

AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REFORM OFF THE 
COAST OF CAPE HATTERAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE LOW WILL INTERACT 
WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE...AND A STRONG PIECE OF MID 
LEVEL ENERGY (ALREADY EVIDENT ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP) WORKING TO 
THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. 

AS A RESULT...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE MODERATE TO HEAVY 
SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE STORM AS FRONTOGENESIS 
INCREASES MARKEDLY. THIS SNOW WILL RAPIDLY FILL IN TO THE SOUTH AND 
EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN  OVERSPREAD 
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF OUR REGION BY THE OVERNIGHT. 

THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS OVERALL TRENDED A TAD FURTHER EAST WITH 
THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE...PLACING IT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE 
EAST OF MONTAUK POINT ON LONG ISLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING. AT THIS 
POINT...THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM WILL HAVE "CAPTURED" 
THE SURFACE STORM...PEAKING ITS INTENSITY AS IT WILL LIKELY FALL 
BELOW 980 MBS AND PRODUCE QUITE A GRADIENT OVER AREAS FROM THE COAST 
TO ABOUT 100 MILES INLAND. 

THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG NORTHEAST WIND EVEN IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN 
ZONES (LITCHFIELD) STRONG ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A BLIZZARD WARNING 
(ALREADY ISSUED) WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THIS WIND COMBINED WITH A 
FAIRLY DRY SNOW WILL PRODUCE EXTENSIVE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW 
AND LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS. 

FURTHER INLAND...TERRAIN DAMPING WILL PRODUCE MUCH LESS WIND IN THE 
HUDSON VALLEY...BUT EVEN HERE...WITH THE SNOW BEING DRY AND 
POWDERY...WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING AND 
DRIFTING SNOW IN THE OUTLYING AREAS. HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS LIKE THE 
CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREENS WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE 
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...BUT THE WIND AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO JUST 
FALL BELOW BLIZZARD CRITERIA. 

THERE IS LIKELY GOING TO BE A SHARP LINE OF DEMARCATION BETWEEN 
HEAVY SNOW...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL (DETERMINED BY WHERE 
EXACTLY THE F-GEN SETS UP). MOST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO THIS 
AREAS BEING CLOSE TO...OR JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE I-84 
CORRIDOR...INCLUDING LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND SOUTHEASTERN DUTCHESS 
COUNTY. THIS WHERE SNOWFALL RATES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY 
COULD REACH 3-4 INCHES PER HOUR...PERHAPS EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. 
FOR NOW...DECIDED NOT INCLUDE ANY THUNDER SINCE THE BEST CHANCE OF 
THIS HAPPENING MIGHT BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS BAND COULD SET FOR 
SEVERAL HOURS...PRODUCING PROLIFIC AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND 
CATSKILLS...SMALLER BANDS OR BANDLETS COULD PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES 
OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR...PROBABLY NOT LASTING AS LONG AS THE 
CLASSICAL FRONTOGENTIC BAND...MAINLY ON TUESDAY. 

OUTSIDE OF THESE BANDS...SNOWFALL RATES IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY 
NORTHWESTWARD WILL GENERALLY PEAK IN THE ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH 
PER HOUR...OFTEN FALLING LIGHTLY. STILL...EVEN IN THESE 
AREAS...LIGHT SNOW COULD FALL FOR A LONG DURATION PRODUCING A 
RESPECTABLE 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN A TWENTY FOUR HOUR 
PERIOD. 

SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO SHOULD BE HIGH...AROUND 15:1 IN MOST AREAS. THE 
GOOD NEWS...THIS WILL NOT BE THE TYPE OF SNOW TO BRING DOWN POWER 
LINES. HOWEVER...THE WIND THEMSELVES MIGHT BE ENOUGH FOR A LOCAL 
POWER OUTAGE OR TWO IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY. HOWEVER...THE FLUFFIER IS 
MORE PRONE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING.  

OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL VERY COLD...SINGLE NUMBERS 
NORTH AND TEENS NORTH. THE COLD...COMBINED WITH THE WIND...MAINLY IN 
LITCHFIELD COUNTY WILL AGAIN LEAD TO VERY DANGEROUS TRAVEL 
CONDITIONS. TRAVEL IS STRONG DISCOURAGED. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE 
20-25 ALBANY SOUTH...TEENS NORTH.   

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND LOOSE IT 
DEEP MOISTURE. SNOW WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY...BUT NOT 
ENDING UNTIL LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL STILL 
BE SOME WIND ADDING A LITTLE MORE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW. 
ROADS WILL LIKELY NOT IMPROVE UNTIL WEDNESDAY. 

BY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL DEPART INTO THE GULF OF MAINE...TAKING 
ANY REMAINING NUISANCE SNOW WITH IT. INCREASING SUNSHINE WILL BE THE 
RULE...BUT IT WILL REMAIN COLD AND BREEZY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 
20S...EXCEPT TEENS ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.                  
  

A STEEP SNOWFALL GRADIENT WITH THIS STORM WILL BE ACROSS OUR 
FORECAST AREA. A GRAPHIC OF OUR FORECAST TOTAL SNOWFALL IS AVAILABLE 
ON OUR WEB PAGE UNDER NEWS HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR 
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE 
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

A RATHER TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO 
EARLY THURSDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE AND POSITIVE HEIGHT RISES ARE 
EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE WAKE OF THE EAST COAST 
STORM.  SO A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL EVENTUALLY FILTER WITH MORE 
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO 
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF JANUARY.

THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY 
AND COULD HAVE LASTING IMPACTS INTO FRIDAY.  UNLIKE THE CURRENT EAST 
COAST STORM...THIS WAVE WILL BE PREDOMINATELY NORTHERN STREAM.  
HOWEVER...ONE CAN NOT IGNORE A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WITH YET 
ANOTHER AMPLIFICATION ALONG THE GULF STREAM WHICH LEADS TOWARD A 
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD ALLOW 
FOR LASTING IMPACTS INTO FRIDAY.  FOR NOW...WE WILL FOLLOW THE 
PREVIOUS EXCELLENT SET OF THE GRIDS/FORECAST WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS 
AND CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

THE WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE TURNING COLDER WITH SOME DISCREPANCY IF 
ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IMPACTS OUR REGION AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.  
EITHER WAY...A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS SEEMS TO BE IN THE PICTURE AS 
THE QBO RETURNS /QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION/ AS THE EASTERN HIGHER 
LATITUDES EXHIBIT A STRONG BLOCKING PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAJOR NOR'EASTER WILL HAVE A SEVERE IMPACT ON ALL TERMINALS MAINLY 
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH SNOW AND SOME WIND. 

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT N-NE WINDS
WILL BE EVOLVING OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL
LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH NEAR 10 KFT AFTER SUNRISE...AND BECOME
BKN-OVC AT 4-6 KFT BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LOOK TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A SHORT 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR
SNOW...SNOW WILL BECOME IFR AT ALL SITES. MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED BY SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
FOR KPOU-KPSF MON NIGHT. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE DAY AND START TO BECOME GUSTY AT KPOU TOWARDS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY: MAJOR OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SN. 
TUESDAY NIGHT:  MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN. 
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE 
WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. 
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS WESTERN 
NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES 
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED 
BY ICE EFFECTS. 

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST 
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST 
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST 
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ039-040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST 
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST 
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/HWJIV












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