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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 190947
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
447 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING OUR WEATHER 
RECENTLY WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY. 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND WILL MOVE OVER THE 
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE VERTICAL STACKED LOW LOCATED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS 
STILL DOMINATING OUR WEATHER. IT WILL FINALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE 
REGION TODAY WITH RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT THE
SURFACE. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE TODAY ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AS 
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EASTWARD. SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS 
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. HOWEVER THE 
NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PICK MOISTURE UP FROM LAKE
ONTARIO MAINTAINING THE CLOUD COVER INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO WITH THAT COMES THE THREAT/CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND EASTERN CATSKILLS MAINLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW 
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND WE LOSE MOISTURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO. WILL 
HAVE DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND DIMINISHING WINDS SETTING THE STAGE 
FOR A COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING MAINLY INTO THE LOWER 
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

EXPECTING SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY WITH RIDGING DOMINATING OUR WEATHER. 
UNFORTUNATELY CLOUD COVER WILL BE BACK ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN HIGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION SUNDAY. HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE OCEAN INCREASES AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT AS RIDGING REESTABLISHES
ITSELF RESULTING IN THE SURFACE HIGH STRENGTHENING SOME. CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE. 

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

AT 500 HPA...STRONG RIDGING WILL BE DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE EASTERN 
SEABOARD...WHILE A DEEP TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER 
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE US. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION IN A BROAD 
SW FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING MILDER AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA. A 
WEAK DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE MOVING UP THE 
MID ATLANTIC COAST AND OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH 
TUESDAY. THE MODELS DON/T SHOW A LOT OF QPF IN OUR AREA WITH THIS 
SYSTEM...AS FORCING WILL REMAIN WEAK AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. 
STILL...WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW...IT/S POSSIBLE FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT 
SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL 
TRANSITION INTO A LIGHT RAIN EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING. ANY SNOW 
ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY MINOR...AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE 
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BOTH THE SFC AND ALOFT TEMPS LOOK TO WARM UP AT 
THE SAME TIME...SO P-TYPE SHOULD TRANSITION FROM JUST SNOW TO RAIN. 
HOWEVER...IF SFC TEMPS WERE TO REMAIN COLDER FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF 
TIME...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. TEMPS 
LOOK TO BE IN THE 30S ON MONDAY...AND THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLIGHTLY 
RISE FOR MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR FOR WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS 
EVE/...AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH TAKES ON NEGATIVE TILT...AND SURFACE 
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEVELOPS ALONG AN OCCLUDED/S FRONTS TRIPLE 
POINT. THIS LOW LOOKS TO LIFT FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARDS UPSTATE 
NY AND THEN BACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS ONTARIO FOR WED INTO WED 
NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME QUITE 
DEEP...PERHAPS EVEN LOWER THAN 980 HPA BY WED NIGHT. AS A 
RESULT...WE CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS EVERYWHERE AHEAD OF 
THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH GUSTY 
WINDS...ESP FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. RAIN COULD BE HEAVY JUST 
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW COLD 
FRONTAL RAIN BAND TO DEVELOP. WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF 
THIS SYSTEM...TEMPS WILL BE VERY WARM FOR LATE DECEMBER...WITH TEMPS 
INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY HEAVY 
RAIN POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO 
HEADLINE THIS STORM IN OUR HWO STATEMENT.

COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE STORM FOR LATE 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT BY THAT POINT MOST OF THE PRECIP 
WILL BE DONE. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS 
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS FOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY. 
TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO 
NEAR 40...ALTHOUGH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE 
BEHIND THE STORM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE REGION OVER 
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM IS KEEPING 
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN PLACE WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT AROUND 
3500-4500 FT FOR ALL TERMINALS.

ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THESE LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE. CIGS MAY 
EVEN LOWER TO HIGH END MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND 3 KFT BY AROUND 
SUNRISE. THEY SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS...AND NO PRECIP 
SHOULD OCCUR. 

THESE LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. 
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RETURN TO VFR CIGS FOR THE VALLEY SITES IN THE 
AFTN...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR CIGS TO LOWER 
BACK DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS FOR TONIGHT.

W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF 
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE MAY BE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES...ESP 
FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT SIMILAR SPEEDS FOR DURING THE 
DAY TODAY...BEFORE LOWERING TO AROUND 5 KTS FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN. 
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN. 
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA. 

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY 
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD 
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE 
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. 

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA







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