000
FXUS61 KALY 200750
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
350 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
AND TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID
ATLANTIC COASTLINE INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY. ALONG WITH THE
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 350 AM EDT...ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT EARLY SUMMER DAY IS IN
STORE FOR THE ENTIRE REGION...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE WESTERLY
ALLOWING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES. OTHER THAN A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS AND/OR A FEW FLAT CU...THERE WILL BE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAYBE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE VERY COMFORTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS
MAINLY IN THE 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MAIN CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
DECOUPLING SHOULD LEAD TO DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE A BIT WARMER...SO MIN TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE MORE WARMING...AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH A WESTERLY FLOW AT 850MB PERSISTING. A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD OCCUR ONCE AGAIN...ALTHOUGH IT MAY
NOT BE A COMPLETELY DRY DAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. NAM/GFS
INDICATING AN AREA OF HIGHER PWAT AND INSTABILITY WITH A POSSIBLE
WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE SETTING UP BETWEEN MAINLY KALB AND
KPOU. SO THERE IS ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO MENTION AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/T-STORM FOR THIS AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAIRLY
STRONG MID LEVEL CAP...THUS ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE FORECAST. ANY
STORMS WILL BE PULSE-TYPE AND NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND
OR HAIL DUE TO SBCAPE UNDER 1000 J/KG.

ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING
WILL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AGAIN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND AVERAGING CLOSE TO NORMAL.

SATURDAY SHOULD BE YET A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY...WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY. SYNOPTICALLY...MODELS INDICATING A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND A POSSIBLE TRIGGER...INCREASED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS TO SCATTERED NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WITH
ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. AGAIN...SEVERE STORMS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE CAPE
LESS THAN 1000 J/KG AND ONLY WEAK FORCING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT HAVING A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE DOES HAVE
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE ISSUES MOVING INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES TROUGHS
THROUGH THIS FAST FLOW. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY
OF THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL OSCILLATE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVES TROUGHS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. HAVE KEEP
FORECAST SIMPLE WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MUCH OF THE PERIOD
SINCE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING ROUNDS OF CONVECTION IS LOW AT THIS
POINT.

FOR THE MOST PART THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. EXPECTING SUMMER WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...80S ARE EVEN EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
TEMPERATURES UP THE HUDSON VALLEY APPROACHING 90 DEGREES. DEW
POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE RISING WELL INTO THE 60S EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL/KPSF DUE TO FOG
EARLY THIS MRNG...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF
TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z FRIDAY. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION...CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY P6SM SKC AT
THE TAF SITES WITH JUST A FEW/SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE CALM UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER
SUNRISE...THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS AFTER 14Z.
THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK... 
FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. POSSIBLE EARLY AM FOG AT 
KGFL/KPSF. 
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC -TSRA/-SHRA.
SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC -TSRA/-SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RECENT WET
WEATHER.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. DEW FORMATION SHOULD OCCUR EACH
NIGHT...AS HUMIDITY LEVELS INCREASE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED INTO
FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR RIVER LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY RECEDE
FROM THE VERY WET CONDITIONS OF THE PAST FEW WEEKS. FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE WEEKEND...THERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. NOT ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAINFALL...SO
RIVER LEVELS SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE TO RECEDE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV