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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 311658
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1258 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL 
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM PASSING ACROSS THE 
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER 
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT 
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW 
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM 
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY 
SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM EDT...STILL QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE OCCURRING FROM
ALBANY AND POINTS N AND W...WHILE CLOUDS ARE MORE PREVALENT ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

THE AREA OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM THE
S AND E THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EXPANDS WESTWARD...AND THE HIGH CLOUDS TO OUR
SOUTH LIFT NORTH. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY-MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA
REGION AND EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT DESPITE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNSET.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 50S IN MOST VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER
40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN VT...AND CATSKILLS MAY ONLY REACH
THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER 
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED 
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS 
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING 
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE 
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND 
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.  

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS 
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT 
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH 
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE 
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000 
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT. 

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL 
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE 
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS 
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. 

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT 
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD 
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT 
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN 
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND 
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW 
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE 
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE 
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF 
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT 
APPEARS UNLIKELY. 

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE 
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO 
THE CHILL. 

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO 
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT 
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE 
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD 
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS 
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS 
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO 
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S 
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A QUIET START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE 
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THESE 
TWO DAYS. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF 
THE FORECAST AREA MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ON TUESDAY ACROSS 
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MONDAY AND 
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. AFTER A 
CHILLY START IN THE 20S...HIGHS MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S 
TO LOWER 50S. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS 
TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE 
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS INDICATE A LOT OF THE PCPN ASSOCIATED 
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE 
BY WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...RANGING UP 
TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE NORTHWEST. 

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AFTER IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALBANY 
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF 
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALONG WITH A WEAK 
SURFACE LOW...AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND 
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...HAVE FORECAST THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO 
INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 PERCENT IN ALL AREAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODELS 
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS HAS A MUCH STRONGER TROF AND 
MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF PCPN. THE ECMWF TROF IS FAIRLY WEAK AND ONLY 
SHOWS SCATTERED PCPN. 

IT WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 
THURSDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN 
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S TO 
MID 40S. HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR LINGERING IFR FOG CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD AT 
KPSF...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF TAF 
SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z SATURDAY. THE 
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE CLOUD DECK MAY LOWER TO 
MVFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AT KPOU AND KPSF. OTHERWISE EXPECT MOST OF 
THE TAF PERIOD TO FEATURE A BKN/OVC CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 4000 AND 5000 
FEET FROM THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO START...THEN BECOME  
EASTERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN BECOME 
NORTHERLY AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT. 

OUTLOOK... 
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. 
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. 
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH 
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY 
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT. 

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING 
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT 
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL 
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL 
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A 
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS. 

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL 
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY 
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. 

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH 
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT 
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S 
MOUNTAINS.  

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING 
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. 

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS 
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN 
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT 
SNOW. 

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG 
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.   

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV







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