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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 160211
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1011 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A 
COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A 
RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND 
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDS IN AND DOMINATES THE WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1010 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED TO OUR WEST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...CLOUDY SKIES ARE ALREADY IN PLACE
OVER OUR AREA...AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO ENCROACH OF
WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS. MOST OF THESE RADAR RETURNS ARE PROBABLY
NOT HITTING THE GROUND JUST YET...AS SEEN IN THE 00Z KALY
SOUNDING...THE LOWER AND MIDDLE PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS
RATHER DRY. EVENTUALLY...THE COLUMN WILL MOISTEN UP...AND SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FROM WEST TO
EAST...WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD BETWEEN 2 AM AND 7 AM.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO AROUND A
THIRD OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED...WITH POSSIBLY UP TO A HALF INCH
ACROSS A PORTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

IT WILL NOT BE AS COOL/COLD TONIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S
TO NEAR 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES AS THE SHORT 
WAVE...COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND HIGH 
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. EXPECTING A DRY AFTERNOON 
WITH INCREASING SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE 
COOL SIDE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES FOR MID SEPTEMBER.

FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH OVER 
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WEST. WHILE AT THE 
SURFACE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA PASSING 
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST. 
EXPECTING MAINLY DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR FROST MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL ADD MENTION TO OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UNDER 
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE ENTIRE 
REGION. BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING OUR REGION AND WITH T850 AND T925 
TEMPERATURES ON 15/12Z MODEL DATA BETWEEN 0C AND 4C...PATCHY FROST 
MAYBE POSSIBLE WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION 
AS FORECASTED LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 30S. A 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AND EXIT THE REGION 
SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THE ATLANTIC 
COAST LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY 
DIRECTION BRINGING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO THE 
WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN HIGH 
TERRAIN TO LOWER AND MID 60S FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS. HIGH 
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 
60S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO LOWER AND EVEN A FEW MID 70S IN VALLEY 
LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING 
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. 15/12Z GLOBAL AND PROBABILISTIC MODELS 
OUTPUT NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME. A COLD FRONT WILL 
PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION AS WE GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER 
THE TIMING HAS SLOWED DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. SYNOPTIC PATTERNS 
ALSO DIFFER WHICH DOES CHANGE THE INTENSITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND 
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DUE TO THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE VORTICITY 
MAXIMA UPSTREAM OF THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSION. SOME 12Z GUIDANCE 
EXHIBIT A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THAT MAY 
SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT POSING A MULTIPLE DAY 
PRECIPITATION EVENT WHILE OTHER DATA SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW 
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HELPING THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT 
THROUGH THE REGION MUCH MORE QUICKLY. UPDATES TO THE FORECAST WILL 
BE MADE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY 
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR SO. CIGS ARE
CURRENTLY BKN-OVC AT 15-25 KFT. HOWEVER...BKN-OVC LOWER CLOUDS
WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A FEW HOURS AT ABOUT 4-5 KFT AND SHOWERS LOOK
TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT...MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST. WITHIN
SHOWERS...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR LEVELS FOR BOTH
CIGS/VSBYS...AND A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT FOR LATE NIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...MAINLY FOR KPSF/KGFL LATE
TONIGHT.

ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO BE ENDING AROUND 12Z OR SO...ALTHOUGH BKN MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS INTO THE MORNING...ESP AT
KPSF...WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND.
EVENTUALLY...ALL SITES LOOK TO SCT OUT BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTN...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY...WESTERLY WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE AT 
NIGHT EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION 
TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD 
FRONT AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE 
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND
DOMINATES.


RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 90 TO NEAR 100 
PERCENT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES 
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MINIMUM VALUES 
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...WITH 
HIGHER VALUES AROUND 50 PERCENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND 
LOWER VALUES AROUND 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND 
NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK. 

SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT 
AND STRONG DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE 
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED 
TO RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH UP TO AROUND A THIRD OF AN 
INCH...WITH POSSIBLY UP TO A HALF INCH ACROSS A PORTION OF THE 
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. A RETURN TO MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE 
REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND DOMINATES. 

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA







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