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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 012046
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
446 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING 
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT TONIGHT. THE CUMULUS CLOUD HAVE 
ALREADY BEGUN TO DISSIPATE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL
CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE FORMATION OF FOG AND STRATUS
AGAIN TONIGHT. EXPECTING SIMILAR LOWS TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH AS A
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S AND DIURNAL HEATING THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE REGION UNDER A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
OUTLOOK. HEIGHTS WILL RISE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
OFF TO OUR EAST AND RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM/HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE...LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION WITH A GRADUAL 
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY.  THE UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST BY 
THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WHEN UPPER ENERGY IN CANADA WILL TRACK 
EAST AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH.  

SO...DRY AND MAINLY SUNNY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.  THEN...SOME 
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE 
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED UNTIL WE GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE TIMING OF 
THE SYSTEM.  

SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 
PERIOD.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A NOTICEABLE LACK OF WINDS...MAKING ANY 
INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE BY THE END OF 
THE WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  STARTING OUT WITH HIGHS IN 
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY...WITH SOME MID 70S IN THE 
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.  GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AND BY THE BEGINNING 
OF NEXT WEEK HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH LOWER TO MID 
80S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS 
AFTERNOON.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO 
TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING 
AT ALL THE TAF SITES WITH JUST A FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IN THE 
3-4 KFT AGL RANGE.  THE CLOUDS TIED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING WILL 
DISSIPATE WITH CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURNING. IDEAL RADIATIONAL 
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP WITH THE WINDS LIGHT TO CALM. 
IFR/LIFR FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY AT KPSF/KGFL FROM 06Z-13Z/WED.  
KALB/KPOU MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR MIST.  OUR CONFIDENCE WAS 
NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE IFR/LIFR FOG IN AT THIS TIME AT KPOU/KALB. 
THE FOG MAY BE SHALLOW AND CONFINED RIGHT ALONG THE MAJOR RIVER 
VALLEY NEAR THESE TWO SITES.  

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES BTWN 12Z-14Z.  
THERE MAY BE SOME CIRRUS AROUND ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KALB IN 
THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. 

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 6 KTS OR LESS 
THIS AFTERNOON.  THEY WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT INTO LATE 
TOMORROW MORNING. 

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SUN: NO SIG WX...OTHER THAN PATCHY FOG LATE AT
NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING 
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
DRY.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
RECOVERY TO 90 TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. THERE 
IS A CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS THURSDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES 
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. 

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
VERY WARM/HOT AS WE START SEPTEMBER. THE LONGEST HEAT WAVE IN
ALBANY OCCURRED FROM AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 1953.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...
  
SEPTEMBER 1... 
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953 

SEPTEMBER 2... 
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953 

SEPTEMBER 3... 
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953 

SEPTEMBER 4... 
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973 

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 FOR ALBANY AND TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS
AND POUGHKEEPSIE. NOTE THAT FOR POUGHKEEPSIE DATA IS MISSING FROM
JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA



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