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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 041138
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
638 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS 
MORNING...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY 
LATE TODAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG 
THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A 
MAINLY LIGHT SNOWFALL FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY. ARCTIC AIR WILL 
FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...AND WILL LAST THROUGH THE REST 
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 638 AM EST...WE HAVE ALLOWED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO
EXPIRE AT 6 AM FOR THE SCHOHARIE...WESTERN GREENE AND WESTERN
ULSTER COUNTIES AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD HAS BEEN
ERODING. THERE IS AN AREA OF ENHANCEMENT NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES BUT MOST OF
THE AREA IS ABOVE FREEZING AT THIS HOUR. SURFACE OBS INDICATING A
FEW LOCATIONS HOVERING NEAR 32 DEGREES...SO WE HAVE ISSUED A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN FOR THESE AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

THE PRECIP SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS MAKING
STEADY PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEW YORK...AND
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

DUE TO FLOW ALOFT BEING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION BY LATE
IN THE DAY. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL START TO SPREAD NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG IT AS WELL. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THREE COUNTIES OF ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD TO
ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
AREA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS 
RELATIVE WARMUP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS COLD ADVECTION COMMENCING 
WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING DURING THE MID TO LATE 
AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE HUDSON 
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WHILE MOISTURE 
ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID 
ATLANTIC REGION MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR 
FORECAST AREA. THERMAL PROFILES FROM FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK TO BE 
COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT 
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN THREE COUNTIES OF ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND 
LITCHFIELD WHERE LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF 
SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY SCRAPE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON 
VALLEY...NORTHEAST CATSKILLS...CENTRAL TACONICS AND SOUTHERN 
BERKSHIRES AS WELL...BUT THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. EITHER WAY QPF LOOKS 
TO BE LIGHT AS THE BRUNT OF MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING WILL BE 
SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

SIMILAR WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY...AS OUR ENTIRE AREA WILL BE 
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN THE ARCTIC AIR MASS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOULD 
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND 
LITCHFIELD. AGAIN...THIS AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF 
THE SYSTEM AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING AROUND 1-3 
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN THESE AREAS. ANY SNOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER 
NORTH WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH AND CONFINED TO LOCATIONS 
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S 
ACROSS THE REGION WITH A NORTHWEST BREEZE PERSISTING.

ANY LINGERING SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS SHOULD TAPER OFF BY 
THURSDAY EVENING...LEAVING COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS REGION-WIDE FOR 
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CRESTING OVER THE 
OHIO VALLEY...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR REGION. 
THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES 
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY AND REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STARTING OUT WITH ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS IMPACTING THE REGION...HOWEVER 
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE WITH SEASONAL READINGS AS WE HEAD INTO 
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH SHORT 
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME RISE IN HEIGHTS AND THE FLOW
FLATTENING AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY.

THE MODELS HAVE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES WITH THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS THAT MOVE THROUGH...SO HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR FORECAST CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME
HAVE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY AS THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS APPROACH. MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN CATSKILLS.
 
EXPECTING TO START OUT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLES DIGITS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY
AS A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. THESE READINGS ARE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NOT
AS COLD FOR SATURDAY NIGHT GENERALLY 10 TO 20 DEGREES WITH HIGHS SUNDAY
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY'S. BY TUESDAY ANTICIPATING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOWER 40S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WHICH WOULD BE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE LAST TIME THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS 40
DEGREES IN ALBANY WAS BACK ON JANUARY 18TH...FOR GLENS FALLS
JANUARY 5TH AND POUGHKEEPSIE FEBRUARY 22ND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL HAVE THE THREAT FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND DRIZZLE EARLY THIS 
MORNING DEPENDING ON THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO VERY GRADUALLY RISE EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES. THE SYSTEM IS OCCLUDING AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
WEST WITH ITS PASSAGE.

WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED 
BY LATE THIS MORNING. HIGHER LEVELS CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN ACROSS
THE AREA AS THE LOWER AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS BREAK UP FOR A PERIOD THIS
AFTERNOON. MID AND LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL RETURN AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THE PRECIPITATION
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT KPOU AND MAY IMPACT
KPSF WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT.

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL THIS 
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY INTO THE TEENS AND 20S WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS AT KALB AND KPSF. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND LOSE THEIR
GUSTS THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN.
THU NIGHT-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 

A BRIEF WARMUP WILL OCCUR TODAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND MAGNITUDE 
OF THE WARMTH WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS. 
ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH 
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...JPV



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