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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 131026
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
626 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING 
RAIN...POSSIBLY SOME FREEZING RAIN AT THE START...TO THE REGION LATE 
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE 
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND 
SUNDAY...BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 625 AM EDT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
HIGH THIN CLOUDS MOVING IN. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND
THICKENING TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. OVERALL SKY
COVER WILL RANGE FROM PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. AFTER A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
IN MOST AREAS...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFFSHORE...GENERALLY
AT SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S...WITH THE LOWS LIKELY TO OCCUR CLOSE TO
MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT...EXPECT A SLOW RISE IN TEMPS THROUGH
SUNRISE...REACHING AROUND 30 TO THE MID 30S BY SUNRISE. LIGHT PCPN
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEGINNING OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
AREAS BETWEEN 4 AND 5 AM...BUT NOT REACHING FAR NORTHERN AND
NORTHEAST AREAS UNTIL 7 OR 8 AM. THE TIMING OF THE START OF PCPN
AND EXPECTED TEMP RISE LATER TONIGHT SUGGEST THAT MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE PCPN WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN...WITH A RELATIVELY
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS WHEN PCPN
STARTS. DUE TO THE DIFFICULTY IN DETERMINING THE EXACT ONSET OF
PCPN AND HOW QUICKLY TEMPS WILL RISE LATE TONIGHT...DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES FOR NOW. ANY FREEZING
RAIN WOULD NOT OCCUR UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE SECOND PERIOD...SO
THERE IS STILL TIME TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AND ISSUE A FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY LATER TODAY. BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS IT APPEARS
THE THREAT OF OTHER MIXED PCPN (SNOW/SLEET) IS LOW...SO HAVE ONLY
MENTIONED RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN AS THE PCPN TYPES. BY AROUND
14Z/15Z ON SATURDAY...EXPECT ALL AREAS TO BE ABOVE FREEZING AND
ONLY GETTING PLAIN RAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL APPEAR TO
BE LESS THAN AN INCH...AND NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS EVENT FOR
POSSIBLE HYDRO PROBLEMS. PLEASE SEE THE HYDRO DISCUSSION BELOW.

HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. RAIN WILL BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH POPS
RISING TO BETWEEN 65 AND 90 PERCENT DURING THAT TIME (HIGHEST POPS
SOUTH). HOWEVER...THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH THE SURFACE
LOW WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF...AND POPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO
CHANCE BY LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE REGION. ALL MODELS NOW AGREE THAT THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN VT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST FORCING AND STEADIEST PCPN TO THE
NORTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MORE SHOWERY TYPE PCPN
OVER THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...RANGING TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
AREAS.

THE PCPN TYPE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AND HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS...AND RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHERN AND LOWER TERRAIN AREAS.
ONE TO THREE INCHES MAY FALL ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND THE BERKSHIRES. GENERALLY AN INCH OR
LESS ELSEWHERE.

LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. HIGHS
SUNDAY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND BELOW 
NORMAL PCPN.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. LOWS SUNDAY 
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY 
MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN 
ADIRONDACKS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD 
OUT OF CANADA AND SWEEP ACROSS OUR REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO 
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND SNOW 
SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. LOWS 
MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 20S TO MID 30S WITH THE 
HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S.

CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME 
UPSLOPE SNOW AND LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO 
BEFORE A LARGE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE 
MIDWEST TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 
MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ONLY 
IN THE 20S TO MID 30S.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATER 
HALF OF THE WEEK FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT LOWS 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS 
ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL 
MAINLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS ON 
FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF 
PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z SATURDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE 
TODAY...HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY INTO EARLY 
TONIGHT AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES. LATE TONIGHT... 
GENERALLY AFTER 08Z/09Z...CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AS A LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. 

THERE IS A CHANCE PCPN WILL START AT KGFL/KALB/KPSF BEFORE THE END 
OF THE TAF PERIOD...SO HAVE INDICATED VCSH AT KGFL AFTER 11Z 
SATURDAY...AND AFTER 10Z AT KPSF AND KALB. IF PCPN DOES START BY 
THOSE TIME...WOULD EXPECT -FZRA AT KGFL...AND -RAIN OR -FZRA AT 
KPSF.  

AT KPOU...PCPN SHOULD START AROUND 09-10Z...AND HAVE INDICATED -RA 
TO BEGIN THERE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A PROB30
GROUP TO INDICATE THERE IS A CHANCE OF -FZRA.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE CALM TO START THE TAF PERIOD...THEN BECOME 
LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATER TODAY. TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM 
AGAIN AT KPOU/KGFL/KPSF...AND CONTINUE LIGHT SOUTHERLY AT KALB.

SAT-SAT NT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.                  
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHRA/-SHSN.                
SUN NT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.                     
MON NT-TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHRA/-SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER TEMPERATURES HAVE ALLOWED FOR SNOW MELT TO OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE SNOWPACK AT ALBANY
AIRPORT WAS 10 INCHES ON MONDAY...BUT MELTING HAS NOW LEFT LESS
THAN AN INCH ACCORDING TO THE 18Z KALB OBSERVATION.
HOWEVER...OUTLYING AREAS CONTINUE TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK.
OBSERVATIONS SHOW UP TO A FOOT STILL REMAINS IN OTHER VALLEY
AREAS...WITH AT LEAST ONE TO THREE FEET OF SNOW IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODELED ANALYSIS FROM
NOHRSC...THE TOTAL SWE /SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT/ ACROSS THESE HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS IS 4 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER...WITH EVEN SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS IN THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS.

SOME SMALL RISES HAVE BEEN SEEN ON AREA HYDROGRAPHS...ESPECIALLY 
ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...RIVER ICE REMAINS IN 
PLACE ON MANY MAIN STEM RIVERS. SOME SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS MAY 
BE STARTING TO LOSE THEIR ICE...BUT THE ICE IS LIKELY JUST BEING 
PUSHED DOWNSTREAM AND PILING UP INTO THE LARGER RIVERS AND LAKES.

ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MINOR FLOODING IN AN ISOLATED 
LOCATION BETWEEN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE
TO JUST SEE SOME DIURNAL MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK...WITH RIVER ICE
REMAINING IN PLACE. THE ONLY RIVER POINT CURRENTLY ELEVATED IS AT
EAGLE BRIDGE...WHICH IS AT ACTION STAGE...AND THE RIVER THERE IS
STILL ICE COVERED AS WELL.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE 
PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...IT LOOKS LIKE THE EVENT WILL
BE MAINLY RAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM A THIRD OF AN INCH IN NORTHERN AREAS...TO UNDER THREE-QUARTERS
OF AN INCH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. QPF AMOUNTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER...WITH THE PCPN IN THE FORM OF SNOW OR
RAIN SHOWERS. MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MAINLY
RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER LOWER TERRAIN AREAS.

THE LATEST MMEFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST RIVERS MAY RISE 1-3 FEET DURING 
THE UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM. IT IS STILL HARD TO SAY IF THIS RAINFALL 
AND THESE RISES WILL BE ENOUGH TO BREAK UP RIVER ICE. TEMPS WILL 
LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S DURING THIS EVENT...SO IT WILL 
NOT BE EXCESSIVELY WARM ALONG WITH THE RAINFALL. IF RIVER ICE WERE 
TO BREAKUP...IT WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN 
CATSKILLS STREAMS...THE SMALLER RIVERS IN DUTCHESS AND COLUMBIA 
COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE HOUSATONIC AND HOOSIC BASINS. AT THIS 
POINT...NO FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS 
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR 
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 
40S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING...SNOW MELT WILL PROBABLY 
FOLLOW A TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN. 

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/GJM/11
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM/11
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



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