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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 250946
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
546 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING COMFORTABLE...FAIR DRY
WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
UP AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY
INTO THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEW WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY...A MUCH STRONGER
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. MIDWEEK WILL BRING COOLER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 545 AM EDT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
PREVAILED ACROSS THE FA WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD AS IT SETTLES ACROSS OUR
REGION TODAY AND THEN SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE AT NIGHT.

FOR TODAY...GENERALLY EXPECT SUNNY SKIES AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG 
WITH JUST A FEW CUMULUS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. IT WILL BE A FEW 
DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ONCE 
AGAIN IN THE FOG PRONE AREAS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER FAIRLY COOL NIGHT 
BY JULY STANDARDS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MDL SUITE (GEM/GFS/NAM) IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH INCRG SPREAD ON MON. WX WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG 500 HPA CUTOFF OVER QB...AND DEVELOPMENT OF A
FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. INITIALLY THE 500HPA
FLOW IS FLAT ON SAT. THE SFC HIGH HAS SLID OFFSHORE...WITH INCRG
SW SFC FLOW AS WAA INCRG OVER FCA. TD WILL INCR THROUGH THE
50S...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR...HWVR MOST OF FCA SHOULD REMAIN DRY
EXCPT FOR A CHC -SHRA W PERIPHERY. WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE RAIN THREAT
OFF SAT...THE GEM AND ECMWF BRING QPF INTO FCA DURING THE AFTN.
HWVR ALL MEMBERS OF GFS ENSEMBLE HOLD OFF QPF TIL AFT 00UTC SUN.
MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S SAT.

SAT NT WAA CONTINUES....AS TD RISE INTO THE 60S AND CONDS BECOME
HUMID/MUGGY. TWO 500HPA SHORT WVS AND WK CDFNT TRAILING A SFC LOW
IN OTTAWA VLY EJECT ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHRA AND SCT TSTMS
LIKELY. 

SOME TIMING DIF BTWN NAM AND GFS FOR LATE SAT POPS...NAM POPS INC
TO LKLY LATE SAT AFTN...GFS/GEM WAITS TILL SAT NT. GIVEN NAM QPF
DISTRIBUTION ITS PROBABLY AN HOUR OR TWO FASTER AT BEST...AND WILL
STAY WILL SLIGHT CHC LATE SAT WEST AND LIKELY MOST AREAS SAT NT.

SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY DIM SUN TO SCT...AND MDLS INFER SOME DRYING AND
SCT-BKN CLOUDS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN AIR MASS FROM SAT NT...ANOTHER
WARM HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...TD REMAIN IN THE
60S. 

SUN NT THE WK CDFNT HAS STALLED IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR...AS ANOTHER
CDFNT MVS TO ST LAWRENCE VLY. THIS TIME A MUCH STRONGER 500HPA
SHORT WV IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF AND MOVES ACROSS THE
LOWER GRTLKS SUN NT...AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MON AND NEW ENG MON
NT. THE 500 HPA TROF ELONGATES OVER ENTIRE EAST CONUS. SFC BASED
CAPES INCRG TO 1000-1500 J/KG IN SE FCA AHEAD OF CDFNT MON.

THIS RESULTS ON THE GFS IN SFC CYCLOGENESUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
AND AN ANNA COLD FRONTAL RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS FCA MONDAY WITH
MORE CONVECTIVELY FORCED PCPN IN SE...WITH ANNA TYPE RAIN/SHRA
CONTINUING INTO MON NT. GEM HAS A DIFFERENT TAKE WITH THE SHORT
WV ENERGY COMING THROUGH IN TWO PIECES...THE SFC LOW FURTHER SOUTH
AND QPF DISPLACED TO I95 CORRIDOR WITH HIGHER QPF IN FAR SE
FCA...AND MUCH LESS SO FURTHER N THAN THE GFS. THE 12UTC ECMWF IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS...HWVR ITS QPF MAX IS DISPLACED TO THE NW
SOMEWHAT. 

AT THIS POINT MON INTO MON NT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY...SHOWERY
TO RAINY PERIOD WITH BLO NORMAL TEMPS. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE REGION IN THIS SYSTEMS WAKE MON NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE DEFINING FEATURE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE A FULL LATITUDE
500HPA TROF AND ITS CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVER
TIME IT GRADUALLY RETREATS NORTH. THE CDFNT IS ALONG THE COAST
TUES MRNG AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS E FM THE GRT PLAINS DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS DEPARTURE IS FAIRLY QUICK IN THE
GFS/GEM...BUT IT LINGERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE ECMWF/HPC GUID WITH
LINGERING THREAT OF -SHRA.

THE MAIN ISSUES IN THE EFP WILL BE HOW FAST ANNA CDFNT DEPARTS
TUES...AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA DUE TO COLD POOL ALOFT...OTRW FCA
WILL BE MAINLY UNDER INFLUENCE OF COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WITH
BLO NORMAL TEMPS.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC...ONLY REAL SIG DIF IS CHC OF -SHRA LINGERS
TUES VS THE OTHERS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF 
THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z SAT. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF 
WHERE FOG WILL REDUCE VSBYS AND CIGS TO MVFR/IFR EARLY THIS MORNING. 

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL FORM 
AGAIN FRIDAY AND THEN DISSIPATE AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING. 

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ON FRIDAY...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU AND KPSF WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AT KGFL AND KALB 
DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.
 
OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BRING FAIR DRY
WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. IT WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
UP AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
HUMIDITY INTO THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH
BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEW WEEK. 

RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING
AND TONIGHT. UNDER FULL SUN TODAY THEY WILL RECOVER TO 35 TO 45
PERCENT...AND TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT SATURDAY. 

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...AND
TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH SATURDAY. 

SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT

&&

HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS ONCE
AGAIN CREEP UP TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&


.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







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