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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 192348
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
745 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ACROSS THE REGION AS OUR WEATHER
WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK. A SLOW MOVING
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER 
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WESTERN AND 
CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO PROVIDE FINE 
WEATHER...WITH JUST A FEW PATCHES OF CIRRUS NEAR US...AND 
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S...DEWPOINTS AROUND 50...MAKING FOR 
A COMFORTABLE EVENING. 

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR TWEAKING OF THE HOURLY GRIDS.

UPSTREAM...MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG A DEWPOINT BOUNDARY WAS 
SLOWLY ADVECTING PAST THE I81 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN 
CHALLENGE TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. 

IT NOW APPEARS THAT HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS 
EVENING...AND PERHAPS WE THIN OUT OVERNIGHT FOR AWHILE. IF THAT 
HAPPENS...IT IS A GOOD BET WE WILL HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG AS HIGHER 
DEWPOINTS WERE ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST AS WELL. 

EVEN IF THE SKY REMAINS MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...THE HIGHER 
DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE A LITTLE MILDER TONIGHT 
WITH MAINLY 50S...SOME UPPER 40S INTO THE DACKS. NO CHANGES WERE 
MADE TO THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL BE UNDER INCREASING 
CLOUD COVER...HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND THE RAISING THE 
PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES ARE A 
LITTLE HIGHER WITH THE OVERALL QPF FIELD ALONG AND WEST OF THE 
HUDSON RIVER AS PWATS CLIMB 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. 
THE CULPRIT WAS THE UPPER LOW SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR LOOP OVER THE 
U.P. OF MI. AS THIS LOW TRACKS FURTHER EAST...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER 
NORTHEAST CANADA STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SQUEEZE BETWEEN 
THIS UPPER LOW AND THE SURFACE RIDGE REATTEMPTING TO BUILD 
SOUTHWESTWARD.

AS THE CASE LEADING INTO THIS FORECAST...THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAIN ALONG OR WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER. AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THROUGH
THURSDAY...FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR THE CATSKILLS AND
DACKS MAY EXPERIENCE ENHANCE RAINFALL. WE WILL PLACE THESE AREAS
INTO LIKELY POPS BEGINNING LATER WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO ALL
OF THURSDAY. QPF AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH ONE INCH BUT FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME PER COORDINATION WITH NERFC.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WHILE LAPSE RATES ARE NOT TOO
CONDUCIVE...THE H850 LI/S /AKA SHOWALTER INDEX/ DROP TO OR JUST
BELOW 0C OVER MOST OF EASTERN NY. THIS WILL WARRANT THE
CONTINUATION WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...MOS GUIDANCE IS RATHER
CLOSE WITH AVERAGE HIGHS INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S AND SOME LOWER 80S
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OUR AREA MIGHT BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A 
CUTOFF LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND UPPER LATITUDE MID LEVEL 
RIDGE TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO 
MIGHT KEEP OUR AREA DRY WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. THE 
CANADIAN MODEL DOES BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY 
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST EUROPEAN 
AND GFS EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE. 

WE HAVE FOLLOWED WPC/S THINKING AND HAVE KEPT OUR AREA RAINFREE 
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 
SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN 
EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S 
LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO AVIATION WEATHER RELATED PROBLEM THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. 
HOWEVER...SOME PATCHY IFR MIST (2SM BR) MIGHT FOR AT KGFL STARTING 
AROUND 04Z. WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR THAT TO HAPPEN.

THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SLOWLY INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 
50S OVERNIGHT WHILE A MAINLY CLEAR SKY COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO 
EASILY FALL BELOW THESE THRESHOLD AT KGFL AND KPSF. WE HAVE GONE 
WITH PREVAILING IFR MIST (2SM BR) AT KGFL AFTER 06Z AND AFTER 08Z AT 
KPSF. 

AT THE OTHER TWO SITES...KPOU AND KALB PROBABLY NO REAL FOG 
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY IF SOME LOWER CLOUDS FORM...WHICH THEY MIGHT AT 
KPOU. THESE LOWER CLOUDS LOOK TO REMAIN AT OR JUST ABOVE THE MVFR 
STATUS...FOR NOW WE WENT ABOVE MVFR AT KPOU. AT KALB...WE PLACED 
MIFG IN THE TAF TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FOG.

AFTER ANY POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF BETWEEN 
11Z-13Z/WED...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS 
WITH BASES GENERALLY BETWEEN 4000-6000 FT AGL INTO THE AFTERNOON. 
SHOWERS WILL ENCROACH THE TAF SITES FROM NW TO SE...SO PLACED VCSH 
IN THE TAFS...STARTING AT 17Z AT KGFL/18Z KALB/19Z KPSF AND 21Z 
KPOU. AT THIS POINT SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON APPEAR UNLIKELY 
TO DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR IFR.    

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...BECOMING S-SE 
5-10KTS ON WEDNESDAY. 

OUTLOOK...

WED NT - THU NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. 
FRI-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER DRY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE
WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TOWARD 90 AND NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
50S PERCENTILE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE
HIGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE CATSKILLS. MODEL QPF HAS
INCREASE WITH UP TO ONE INCH BASIN AVERAGE WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER. DUE TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AT THE PRESENT TIME...MOST OF THIS
RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN RIVER BANKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/BGM
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM









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