Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Albany, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4]



000
FXUS61 KALY 230916
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
416 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WARM FRONT WILL MOVE 
NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION TODAY...ENDING THE RAIN...AND ALLOWING 
FOR SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES. A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL PUSH 
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...BRINGING 
WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR MONDAY 
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST MONDAY 
NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM EST...RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL
REGION...NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE...ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE
LAST AREA OF SHOWERS IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE TUG HILL
REGION...AND MOVING EAST VERY RAPIDLY. WE EXPECT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS IN THESE NORTHERN AREAS TO TAPER OFF FROM W TO E BETWEEN 5
AND 7 AM.

FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS...BEFORE ENDING.

AFTER THE SHOWERS END...WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY...IF NOT WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FURTHER S AND E...WE
EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
A FEW PERIODS OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE LEAST CLOUDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT.

A TRICKY CALL ON MAX TEMPS TODAY...AS CLOUDS AND A COLD GROUND MAY
LIMIT THE WARMTH FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 90...WHILE SOUTHERN
AREAS COULD POTENTIALLY RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAV MOS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS...AND TOWARD THE WARMER MET MOS FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. THIS
RESULTS IN MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOWER/MID 40S FOR NORTHERN
AREAS...45-50 FOR MOST CENTRAL AREAS...AND 50-55 ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS...WARMEST IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...SHOULD SUNSHINE
BREAK OUT EARLIER AND MORE ABUNDANTLY THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING
THE GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...IS POISED TO TRACK RAPIDLY
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT...IN A SOMEWHAT WEAKENING FORM AS A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CARVES OUT IN THE PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...SOME WEAK AND TRANSIENT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...TEMPS COULD FALL OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S IN MANY AREAS...BEFORE RISING
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE CLOUDS THICKEN. RAIN SHOULD THEN QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3
AM...WITH A FAIRLY SOAKING RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET...FORECAST TO REACH 60-70 KT AT AND ABOVE
H850...WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A VERY
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM MIXING
DOWN...HOWEVER...ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS MAY EXPERIENCE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AS IT PASSES...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
35-45 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK.

MONDAY...SOME LINGERING RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 10 AM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE...AND SFC WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING TO FOCUS MUCH PRECIPITATION.
WILL THEREFORE DECREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC
RANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON...HIGHEST ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO LINGERING UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND ADDED
LOW LEVEL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOW CLOUDS MAY OCCASIONALLY BREAK...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY REGION. IT SHOULD BE QUITE WARM...WITH TEMPS REACHING THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND
EAST...AND 55-60 TO THE N AND W. HOWEVER...AGAIN...SHOULD ANY MORE
PROLONGED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP...EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS
COULD OCCUR.

MON NT-TUE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT.
MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS POISED TO PASS N AND W OF THE
REGION. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO WEAKEN AS
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH...AS A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY INDICATE CHC
POPS FOR MON NT AS THE FRONT PASSES FOR SHOWERS...TAPERING OFF
LATER AT NIGHT. SOME LAKE/OROGRAPHIC EFFECT SHOWERS OF RAIN AND
SNOW MAY DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK TUE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THESE SHOWERS MAY THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUE.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO OCCUR IN MOST AREAS TUE
MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP/EXPAND S AND E INTO AREAS
MAINLY N AND W OF ALBANY IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK TUE...AND THEN REACH 45-50 IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF AND 
RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE SECOND HALF. THERE STILL EXISTS 
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO THE 
COASTAL SYSTEM MIDWEEK. THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INCLUDING THE  
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY MAKES FOR A TRICKY FORECAST. THE ECMWF HAS 
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS A COASTAL 
LOW (MILLER TYPE A) ACROSS THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND. THE ECMWF 
ALSO HAS EXTREME FGEN AT H7 WHICH OSCILLATES ACRS FA AS WE GO 
FORWARD IN TIME FROM 12Z WED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. IT HAS THE LOW 
GETTING CAPTURED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THUS KEEPING THE LOW HUGGING 
THE COAST AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND 
AT 06Z THURSDAY TO DOWNEAST MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY. THE ECMWF HAS 
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST 5 MODEL RUNS WITH THIS TRACK. 
MEANWHILE THE GFS AND GGEM KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE 
GGEM FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST AT 06Z THURSDAY AND THE GFS FARTHEST 
NORTH AND EAST. AT THIS POINT IT IS BEST TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH 
PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CALL FOR CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE 
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF 
STORM AND UNCERTAINTY IN HWO. IN ADDITION GFS AND GGEM HAVE A MUCH 
WEAKER SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LOW AT 12Z THURSDAY 982 MB ON 
ECMWF...997 MB ON GFS AND 1007 MB ON GGEM.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE STORM EXCEPT 
FOR A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN PORTION 
OF THE FA ON SATURDAY. 

AS FOR TEMPS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE 
WITH TEMPS FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE 
LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO 
BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY AND 
SATURDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY 
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY 
NIGHT AND THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MIXED PRECIP
OF -IP/-RA FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL NORTH AND EAST. THE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR CIGS BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN AT KPOU...BUT
NOT MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED THERE. THE BEST CHC OF A PERIOD OF
-RAPL IS AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 06Z-08Z/SUN. THE CIGS AND VSBYS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MIXED PCPN. KALB WILL HAVE SOME
-RA AROUND AFT 06Z WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS PSBL TIL ARND 10Z.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT ALL THE TAF SITES TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING THRU 
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR
SO...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN
EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy