000
FXUS61 KALY 201730
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO 
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR 
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  A 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR SEVERAL 
ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE 
WORK WEEK WITH CONTINUED SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40 SHOWS H500 RIDGE CONTINUING
TO BUILD INTO NORTHEAST...WITH WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICES ROTATING
AROUND THE RIM OF THE RIDGE IN THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT. NO REAL STRONG
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. HAVE REMOVED ALL THE POPS SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION PRIOR TO 22Z...AND KEPT JUST A SLIGHT CHC CLOSER TO
EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT...MORE LIKE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS PM. 

THE CLOUDS HAVE THINNED THE MOST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WITH
SOME SUNSHINE DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.
DRASTIC CHANGES TO SKYCOVER BASED ON THE SATELLITE TRENDS WITH
MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE EXCEPT OVER
THE SRN DACKS REGION...AND PORTIONS OF THE GREENS.

EXPECTING MAX TEMPS IN THE M70S TO U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH SOME
L80S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. M60S TO M70S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH WITH DEWPTS IN
THE M50S TO L60S ACROSS THE FCST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS TO MAX TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD...AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS VERY SLOWLY BEGINS
TO SPIN EASTWARD.

THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL REMAIN STALLED OR VERY
SLOWLY DRIFT INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO THEN LIFT NORTH AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. MOST OF OUR AREA LOOKS
TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...ESP FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTHWARD...WHERE LOW TO MID 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUES/WED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY...WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

WITH THIS BOUNDARY REMAINING CLOSE TO THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE BEST CHC LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOWARDS
OUR AREA...AND AGAIN DURING THE PEAK HEATING TIME OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ON WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SO FAR TO THE WEST OF THE REGION
ACROSS THE PLAINS...THERE DOESN/T LOOK TO BE AN ORGANIZED THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS COULD ALLOW FOR ANY ISOLD THUNDERSTORM TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...AND ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY CURRENTLY IS 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND TRACK EAST...AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER 
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO 
FRIDAY.  THE NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE MAY CUT OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE 
FROM THE WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A 
COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IN TWO PIECES.  ONE 
PIECE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH 
DECENT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF IT. THE SECOND PIECE SHOULD BE MORE OF A 
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRYER AIR IN WEST TO NORTHWEST 
FLOW...TRACKING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON... WITH LESS 
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE. 

SO...GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY 
INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND JUST A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY MORNING AND 
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE SURFACE 
BOUNDARY SHOULD EXIT LAST.  COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS 
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. SO...HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 
70S...AROUND 60 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS 
IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70...AROUND 
60 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH SOME IFR VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGH ABOUT 16Z...WHEN THE CEILING SHOULD LIFT TO BORDERLINE
MVFR/VFR. THE CEILING SHOULD BECOME SOLIDLY VFR DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN BREAK UP AND BECOME SCATTERED 20Z-22Z. THERE
CLOUD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE CLEARING LINE BUT NOT ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO MENTION IN TAFS.

SOUTH WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT THIS MORNING SHOULD SHIFT TO THE 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT 
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING IFR POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER A CLOUDY AND DAMP MORNING...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE 
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL NOT DROP BELOW 50 PERCENT. 
S-SE WINDS WILL BECOME W-SW AT AROUND 4-8 MPH. AN ISOLD SHOWER OR 
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. RH VALUES 
WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS. 
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR 
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL STAY 
DRY...THE FEW AREAS THAT RECEIVE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY SEE A 
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.  THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT 
ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY 
THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THE WEEK.  DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE 
OF THE SHOWERS...BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS 
WEEK. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS