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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 221134
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
734 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY WITH 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING OVER 
THE AREA FOR ONE MORE DAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER 
THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT ALL LEVELS OF THE 
ATMOSPHERE FROM QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST. IT WILL BRING INCREASING 
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM...SHOWER COVERAGE HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY SINCE 
EARLIER THIS MORNING. HAVE UPDATED THE POP GRIDS TO REDUCE THE SIZE 
OF THE AREA WITH LIKELY POPS. THE LIKELY POPS ARE NOW CONFINED TO AN 
AREA NORTH AND EAST OF ALBANY FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING.  
THE REST OF THE AREA HAS CHANCE POPS. 


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 430 AM...SHOWERS REMAIN NUMEROUS FROM THE EXTREME EASTERN 
MOHAWK VALLEY...TO THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN 
VERMONT...THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND FROM COLUMBIA TO BERKSHIRE 
COUNTIES. ALL MODELS NOW AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE ONE MORE DAY OF 
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG WITH LOTS OF 
CLOUDS AND COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE SHOWERS 
COULD CONTAIN BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN...FORCING FROM THE UPPER 
LOW WILL NOT BE AS STRONG TODAY AND PWATS WILL BE LOWER...SO AM NOT 
EXPECTING ANY TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO OCCUR TODAY. 
IN FACT...HAVE NOT FORECAST ANY TSTMS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST 
AREA.

HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS 
MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FROM THE EXTREME EASTERN MOHAWK 
VALLEY...TO THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE 
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND FROM COLUMBIA TO BERKSHIRE COUNTIES. DURING THE 
DAY THE POPS ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 65 
TO 75. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END TONIGHT...AND A SLOW CLEARING 
TREND WILL START LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WHEN MOSTLY CLOUDY 
OR CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY 
SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE 50 TO 60. HIGHS 
SATURDAY IN THE 70S. 

HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL TAKE HOLD 
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS. 
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY 
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUE NT...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL...AS 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT 
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS...WITH TEMPS GENERALLY RISING TO SLIGHTLY 
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S IN 
VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD 
FALL INTO THE 50S.

WED-THU...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES 
REGION SOMETIME LATE WED...OR MORE LIKELY DURING THU. A WARM 
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH 
THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEY AREAS...AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS 
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS 
COULD GET CLOSE TO 90 ON WED. SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH 
NW PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATE WED OR WED NT...WHERE SLIGHT CHC TO 
LOW CHC POPS ARE INDICATED. IT APPEARS THAT A BETTER CHANCE FOR 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REGIONWIDE SHOULD OCCUR ON THU AS THE COLD 
FRONT PASSES THROUGH. MAX TEMPS ON THU SHOULD STILL REACH THE 
LOWER/MID 80S IN VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTH...AND UPPER 70S TO 
LOWER 80S TO THE N AND W...WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAINLY IN THE 70S. 
EVEN WARMER MAX TEMPS COULD OCCUR IF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES 
SLOWER. MIN TEMPS WED AND THU AM SHOULD BE IN THE 60S IN VALLEY 
AREAS...AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS 
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A FEW PERIODS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS CAN NOT BE 
RULED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN ANY SHOWERS OR AREAS OF 
DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO VFR LATER THIS 
AFTERNOON...BEFORE TRENDING BACK DOWN TO MVFR AFTER 02Z/SAT. THERE 
IS A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AFTER 08Z/SAT...ESP AT 
KPSF...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS NOT VERY HIGH SO DID NOT 
EXPLICITLY INCLUDE IN TAFS.

WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE E TO NE...AT LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH 
FRI NT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER 
CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 PERCENT TODAY 
AND RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 
LIGHT...UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...SOME PLACES IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO THE 
SARATOGA REGION HAVE RECEIVED UP TO 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN BASED ON 
RADAR ESTIMATES. FLASH FLOODING OCCURRED EARLY LAST NIGHT IN 
MONTGOMERY AND EXTREME NW SCHOHARIE COUNTY...WITH THE CANAJOHARIE 
CREEK RISING TO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE REST OF THE 
FORECAST AREA HAS RECEIVED AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL DURING THE 
PAST TWO DAYS...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. 

AS THE UPPER LOW TRACKS MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY...SHOWERS 
WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWERS 
OCCURRING THIS MORNING. FORCING TODAY WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE PAST 
TWO DAYS...SO NO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TSTMS EXPECTED 
TODAY SINCE TSTMS HAVE NOT BEEN FORECAST. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS SHOWERS 
COULD PRODUCE UP TO ANOTHER INCH OF RAIN IN SOME PLACES TODAY AND 
EARLY TONIGHT. 

SHOWERS WILL COMPLETELY END BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH A PROLONGED 
PERIOD OF DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY 
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOIL CONDITIONS 
TO DRY OUT ONCE AGAIN...WITH STREAM AND RIVERS RECEDING...ESPECIALLY 
IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AREA.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...KSL
AVIATION...KSL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



















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