Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Albany, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4]



000
FXUS61 KALY 200219
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1019 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM AGAIN ON SUNDAY WITH ABOVE 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
WILL BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT 
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1018 PM EDT...A THIN BLANKET OF CIRRUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
A LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST CONTINUES TO COVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THESE CLOUDS ARE THIN...THEY
ARE PREVENTING IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING FROM OCCURRING TONIGHT.
WE HAVE ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. MIN
TEMPS OVERNIGHT LOOK TO RANGE BETWEEN THE LOW 20S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS TO THE LOW 30S IN THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO DIMINISH THANKS
TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING AT THE SURFACE 
DOMINATES AND FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS BECOMING NEARLY ZONAL OVER THE 
GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST. 

AFTER A CHILLY START...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WARM TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL 
DEVELOP AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST. WITH A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS
TONIGHT WILL BE...LOOKING AT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S...CLOSE TO
NORMAL.

ALOFT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A 
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES 
FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY AS IT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO 
THE REGION. UNTIL THEN MORE DRY AND WARM WEATHER MONDAY WITH HIGHS 
WELL INTO THE 60S WITH SOME LOW 70S EXPECTED IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY 
AND CAPITAL DISTRICT. WILL BE MILD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION FROM 
WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY 
THIS BOUNDARY...MAINLY IN THE EVENING...AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL 
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OVERNIGHT 
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH A GUSTY WESTERLY 
BREEZE DEVELOPING.

ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE MUCH COOLER TEMPS ALOFT THANKS TO THE 
PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY. 
850 HPA TEMPS WILL BE AS LOW AS -6 DEGREES OVER THE 
REGION...ALLOWING FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S 
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...ALONG WITH 
STRONG W-NW WINDS. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING RAIN 
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THANKS TO PASSING 
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. 

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS 
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WARMING TEMPS ALOFT 
WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER TEMPS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH LOW 50S 
TO LOW 60S OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE 
SEASONABLE COOL FOR WED/THURS NIGHT WITH 30S...SOME 20S OVER THE 
HIGH TERRAIN.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK 
PERIOD. THIS WILL RETURN THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION 
FOR SOMETIME LATE FRI INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME 
UNCERTAINTY IN WHEN THE DISTURBANCE WILL MAKE ITS APPROACH...AS SOME 
MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW IT MUCH SLOWER DUE TO THE SYSTEM 
CUTTING OFF AT 500 HPA. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH CHC POPS FOR FRI 
NIGHT AND THE WEEKEND. TEMPS LOOK WARM AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH 
VALLEY TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR FRIDAY...AND LOW TO MID 60S 
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING. 

GUSTY N-NW WINDS THIS EVENING WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AND GENERALLY BECOME CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SKIES ARE NEARLY CLEAR AT KGFL. FURTHER SOUTH...SCT-BKN HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS ARE AFFECTING THE TAF SITES...ESP FOR KPOU. THESE CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT NO LOWER OR
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED.

FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...LIGHT S-SE WINDS OF AROUND 5-10 KTS
WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOME PASSING HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WELL...WITH CONTINUED
VFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED-THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON RANGING 
FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT... 

GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH FLOW WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT 
TONIGHT. MINIMUMS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 PERCENT 
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 60 TO 85 PERCENT SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAINFALL IS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY FALL. BASED ON 
THE LATEST FORECAST...IT IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FLOOD STAGE 
MONDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 2 PM. 

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE 
DOMINATING. OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION/RAIN ARE EXPECTED 
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND 
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...IAA







National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy