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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 231302
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
902 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED 
TODAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF 
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY MIX 
IN ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS 
WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE 
BLUSTERY TODAY. TONIGHT A BREEZE WILL CONTINUE AS IT CLEARS AND 
TURNS COLD. SUNSHINE WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BUT THE 
BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 900 AM EDT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS HAVE BLOSSOMED IN
EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A COMPACT
UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.
RADAR INDICATING SOME MODERATE BURSTS OF RAINFALL JUST WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION AT THIS HOUR. WILL RAISE POPS TO
BETWEEN 60-80 PERCENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA FOR
THE REST OF THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY.
SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AS THE
UPPER LOW QUICKLY PULLS AWAY. WILL DECREASE POPS TO CHANCE RANGE
AFTER 1 PM.

MOST OF THESE SHOWERS WILL BE RAIN. HOWEVER...IT MIGHT BE JUST
COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
GREENS...ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS. ANY SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY
REAL ACCUMULATIONS...MAYBE A COATING ON SOME GRASSY AREAS.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SUNSHINE IN THE VALLEYS AREAS 
ESPECIALLY TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL PERSIST.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM OUR REGION BY LATE IN THE
DAY. DUE TO COOL AIR AND ALOFT THERE STILL COULD BE FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...MID 50S MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...GUSTING UP TO 30-40 MPH
BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE USUAL PLACES OF THE 
CAPITAL DISTRICT...HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL MOVE BY WELL TO OUR EAST TONIGHT...BUT IT 
WILL "CAPTURE" A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS PROCESS WILL 
STEEPEN THE GRADIENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH 
MORE WIND. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN -4 TO -8 C 
OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL NOT DECOUPLE...IT WILL TURN 
COLD AS THE SKY GENERALLY CLEARS. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 
30 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 20S VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE WIND WILL 
ADD TO THE CHILL...MAKING APPARENT TEMPERATURES FEEL ABOUT 10 
DEGREES COLDER. 

THURSDAY WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL 
MODERATE A LITTLE TOWARD 0C. THE STIFF BREEZE WILL 
CONTINUE...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH ONCE MORE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 
AROUND 30 MPH OR BETTER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL 
MODERATE...CLIMBING TO 55 TO 60 DEGREES IN MOST VALLEY 
LOCATIONS...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OCEAN STORM WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO LOOSE IT 
GRIP ON OUR REGION. THE WIND WILL RELAX. THERE MIGHT BE SOME HIGH 
CLOUDS STREAMING LATE BUT EITHER WAY...THERE WILL BE MORE 
OPPORTUNITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...DESPITE CONTINUED WARMING 
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TONIGHT/S 
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. 

FRIDAY...THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST THAT 
RAIN FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM...A WARM FRONT...WILL REACH THE AREA. THE 
00Z GFS AND NAM WERE A LITTLE FASTER BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION 
BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THE 00Z EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN 
MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND...WERE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH RAIN NOT 
REACHING OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER DARK.

FOR NOW...WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...LOWING CHANCES 
TO SLIGHT FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH LOW CHANCES TO THE 
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW FAST RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION 
WILL HELP DICTATE HOW MILD IT GETS. FOR NOW...WE KEPT THE THINKING  
THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AROUND 60 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND 
VALLEYS FURTHER EAST...WHILE HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO 
UPPER 50S TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE 
EAST AS WELL. IF THE RAIN WERE TO COME IN FASTER...THESE NUMBERS 
WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO BE LOWERED A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS 00Z 
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKING 
PATTERN THAT WILL LIKELY LAST INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

WE BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS 
EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.  THIS WOULD PLACE 
THE HIGHER CHC-SCT POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.  
THEREAFTER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS LATEST NEW TRENDS ARE FOR A 
NOW A DRIER SUNDAY AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA 
EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WESTERN NEW 
ENGLAND.  WE WILL LOWER POPS THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  
H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP BELOW 0C WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE 
EXPECTED.  THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF 
THIS LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE 
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A LESS PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHEN 
COMPARED TO THE GGEM/GFS/DGEX WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR 
WET CONDITIONS.  FOR NOW...WITH A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING AND A DEEPER 
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ADVECTING NORTHWARD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO 
GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WE LEAN TOWARD THE 
ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE /SEE PMDEPD FOR FURTHER DETAILS/.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
INCREASING WINDS...MVFR CIGS AND COVERAGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE 
THE MAIN THEMES FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

MAIN UPPER LOW WAS JUST MOVING EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER THIS EARLY 
MORNING.  UPON ITS PASSAGE...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR 
THOSE MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST WITH A GRADUAL LIFTING OF THOSE CIGS 
THROUGH THE DAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING CLIMBS.  THE EXCEPTION TO 
THIS WILL BE KPSF WHERE FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WHERE MVFR CIGS 
SHOULD PREVAIL.  

WIND MAGNITUDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT 
AND THAT AFOREMENTIONED MIXING LAYER CLIMBS.  GUSTS APPROACHING 
30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. 
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. 
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. 
FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA. 
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA. 
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30-45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT ON 
THURSDAY...

WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN 
VERMONT...AS OF 430 AM EDT...MOST AREAS DID NOT COME CLOSE TO 
REACHING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT. 

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AS AN 
UPPER AIR LOW MOVES THROUGH EARLY...EXITING LATER TODAY. 
HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THESE SHOWERS (EVEN WHEN COMBINED WITH 
THOSE OF LAST NIGHT) WILL ADD UP TO A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF 
RAINFALL. 

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 
PERCENT...GENERALLY IN THE 35-50 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL DIMINISH TO A BREEZE TONIGHT BUT IN MOST 
PLACES...WILL NOT BECOME LIGHT. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH 
WITH THOSE HIGHER EVENING GUSTS. A FULL RECOVER IS NOT GOING TO 
HAPPEN TONIGHT AS RH VALUES PEAK AROUND 75 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES. 

THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SUNSHINE WILL 
PREVAIL AND TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH ABOVE 50F (EXCEPT IN THE 
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT). A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL STILL BE 
THERE...GUSTING 25-35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH 
VALUES LOOK TO TUMBLE INTO THE 20S MOST AREAS (AROUND 30 SOUTHERN 
VERMONT AND ADIRONDACKS) BUT MIGHT EVEN DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THE 
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD. IT WILL BE MORE THAN FIVE 
DAYS WITHOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION. 


OUR OFFICE WILL COORDINATE WITH THE STATE LIAISON OFFICIALS 
CONCERNING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.  

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY 
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE 
DAYS. 

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. 

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL







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