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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 231035
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
635 AM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION 
FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF 
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS 
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME 
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH 
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY CLOUDS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS...SKIES REMAIN
MAINLY CLEAR. WINDS HAVE BECOME NEARLY CALM...AND HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. TEMPS COULD DROP
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO IN MOST AREAS BY SUNRISE. SOME PATCHY FROST IS
LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT AND
NW MA.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...IN
COMBINATION WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW AND MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION...HAS PRODUCED CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING INTO QUEBEC AND NE ONTARIO. SOME OF
THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS BY MID
MORNING...AND MAY EXPAND INTO THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
VT...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY FOR AT LEAST A
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS...IN CASE IT
EXPANDS FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ALSO...CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP TOO
LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE MENTION.

OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION...AND AT LEAST A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME LOWER 70S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW
CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS
MAY BOOST TEMPS A BIT MORE THAN OTHER AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...SOME PATCHY CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG ARE MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT...AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

WED...SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO MID MORNING
IN DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...OTHERWISE
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS REACHING THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 60S ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED NT-THU NT...LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG OR OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND NORTHWARD WITH THE CLOUD
COVER...AND RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...WITH 00Z/23
GEFS INDICATING THE PROBABILITY OF 0.05 INCH OR GREATER QPF/6
HOURS REACHING INTO THE 60 PERCENT RANGE OR HIGHER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE ADDED SOME
SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW
CT GIVEN THESE TRENDS IN THE MODELS...HOWEVER DID NOT WANT TO
INCREASE TOO MUCH IN CASE SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS TREND BACK SOUTH
AND EAST WITH THE LOW/S TRACK AND PRECIP SHIELD. AT THE VERY
LEAST...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND NORTH AND WEST TO
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THURSDAY INTO EARLY THU NT.
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MILDER FOR WED-THU NT...ESP ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT. EXPECT MINS TO FALL
INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 50S ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS...AND POSSIBLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION. THU MAX TEMPS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER EXPANDS
NORTH...AND IF ANY RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. HAVE
GENERALLY TAKEN A BLEND OF THE COOLER MAV MOS/WARMER MET
MOS...WITH 65-70 EXPECTED IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...AND 60-65 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HOWEVER...IN ANY AREAS WHICH RECEIVE
RAINFALL...MAX TEMPS COULD BE MUCH COOLER...PERHAPS ONLY IN THE
LOWER 60S OR EVEN COOLER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES. RIDGING BUILDS EAST AND WEAKENS/DEAMPLIFIES AS 
NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGHING BUILDS EAST INTO EASTERN NORTH 
AMERICA. COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SOME TIME AROUND 
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY... WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN EASTERN 
CANADA BUILDING IN. LACK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT 
SUGGESTS A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME STEADY EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW 
COULD SET UP THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BASED ON THE PREDICTED 
POSITION OF THE STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR NORTHEAST.

HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WELL INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80...AROUND 
70 TO LOWER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S...SOME 
UPPER 60S SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLLING THE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED 
TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT KALB AND KPSF EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO 
EXIT. CALM TO LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING TO DEW POINTS... 
ALONG WITH SOME STEAM FOG OFF RIVERS AND SWAMPS COULD BRING SOME 
INTERVALS OF MVFR FOG TO KALB...KPSF AND KGFL BETWEEN 08Z-12Z... 
MAYBE NOT BUT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO INCLUDE A TEMPO. OTHERWISE... 
AGAIN...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LIGHT WINDS AT 3 KT OR LESS THROUGH SUNRISE SHOULD BECOME WEST TO 
NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THIS 
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WED-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION 
FROM THE WEST...AND SHOULD DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF 
THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. A WEAK STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS 
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME 
CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH 
THURSDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TREND TOWARD CALM LATE TONIGHT. ON WED...WINDS
WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 MPH.

THE RH WILL FALL INTO THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
45-60 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE RH
WILL THEN RECOVER TO 95-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD DEW
FORMATION AND SOME FOG EXPECTED. RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 50-60
PERCENT FOR WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
ON THURSDAY...AND COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IF RAINFALL
OCCURS...AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER ONE QUARTER OF AN
INCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. THEREFORE...RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE BEEN
RUNNING ON THE LOW SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







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