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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 211050
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
650 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES 
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. 
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED 
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST 
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXCEPT FOR SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS IN ORDER TO 
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS 
FORECAST.  

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE IN THE PROCESS DEVELOPING INTO A  
CLOSED UPPER LOW TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. 
FOR TODAY THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. RADAR PICS AS OF 430 AM SHOW ENOUGH PCPN 
COVERAGE TO WARRANT INCREASING POPS TO LIKELY IN ALL AREAS 
TODAY...AND TO CATEGORICAL LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE 
REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH 
A SURFACE LOW ALSO DEVELOPING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS 
EVOLUTION TAKES PLACE...THERE WILL BE A DROP OFF IN PCPN ACTIVITY 
TONIGHT AND HAVE FORECAST MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. 

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER OUT TO SEA...THE FORECAST 
AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM CONVEYOR BAND OF PCPN AS ATLANTIC 
MOISTURE SURGES WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. AS A 
RESULT...PCPN WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN DURING WEDNESDAY AND 
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL BY 
LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION AND CONTINUE TO FORECAST 
CATEGORICAL POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE ON 
THURSDAY...HAVE LOWERED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF 
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT CATEGORICAL POPS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHEAST 
HALF.

LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S. HIGHS 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED 
LOW STILL CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE COD...WITH A SPRAWLING 
CYCLONIC NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE 
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WHERE 
LIKELY POPS ARE MENTIONED. MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY START TO PULL EASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA 
ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...OUR REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW 
REGIME SO SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. IT WILL CONTINUE TO 
BE COOL AND DAMP...WITH OVERCAST SKIES RESULTING IN NOT MUCH 
POTENTIAL FOR WARMING.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FURTHER FRIDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH A 
FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY 
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS 
TO THE WEEKEND FORECAST...AS THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA DIGS OVER THE 
NORTHEAST CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF KEEPING 
THE BRUNT OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. 
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CMC TO AN EXTENT...DEPICTS THE TROUGH 
DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO WORK INTO THE 
REGION WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC 
FLOW REGIME.

SO BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE WEEKEND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER THAN 
NORMAL TEMPS AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE...OR COOLER TEMPS AND 
MORE CLOUDS. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE WHICH WAY THE MODELS TREND AS THE 
WEEKEND NEARS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS TODAY...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING...AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION PREVAILING SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME AS
BATCHES OF SHOWERS WILL PERIODICALLY MOVE THROUGH.

FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN VFR RANGE THROUGH MUCH OF
TODAY...WITH CIGS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING. BY THIS EVENING THERE
WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND 5 
KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA. 
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES 
TONIGHT. IT WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. 
A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED 
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST 
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EVEN 
THOUGH WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER 
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL 
IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST 
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







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