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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 050908
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
408 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION TODAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT 
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING 
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS ARCTIC AIR FILTERS BACK INTO OUR REGION. THE 
ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EST...SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE 
SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE REGION AT THIS HOUR. A WIND SHIFT TO THE 
NORTHWEST AND BRIEF GUSTINESS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITH THE FRONTAL 
PASSAGE...AS WELL AS A DROP IN TEMPERATURE. 

DRY CONDITIONS OCCURRING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR FAR 
SOUTHERN ULSTER...DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES...WHERE SOME 
LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD TEND TO PUSH THE 
PRECIP SHIELD EVEN FARTHER SOUTH AFTER SUNRISE AND MAY ACTUALLY EXIT 
THE AREA THEREAFTER. WILL HOLD ONTO LIKELY POPS FOR THESE AREAS INTO 
THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS BEFORE DECREASING TO CHANCE. THERE WILL 
LIKELY BE LESS SNOW ACCUMULATION THAN 00Z MODELS INDICATED...AS 
MOISTURE WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME PUSHING BACK NORTHWARD IN WAKE 
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS A RESULT...SNOW TOTALS HAVE BEEN LOWERED 
TO 1-2 INCHES ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ULSTER...SOUTHERN DUTCHESS 
AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD. A DUSTING IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SLIGHTLY 
FARTHER NORTH...BUT STILL WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN YESTERDAY...AS COLD ADVECTION 
CONTINUES ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH...IF AT ALL 
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S FOR 
VALLEY LOCATIONS...AND TEENS TO NEAR 20 ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND 
MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...WITH RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD IN 
THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR CLEARING SKIES AND VERY 
COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A BIT OF A 
NORTHWEST BREEZE UNTIL THE RIDGE BUILDS IN LATE...SO SOME BORDERLINE 
ADVISORY LEVEL WIND CHILL VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. SINCE CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL AT 
THIS TIME...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING AN ADVISORY BUT WILL CONTINUE 
TO MENTION THE THREAT IN THE HWO FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE LATER TODAY. 
ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 5 BELOW TO 5 
ABOVE ZERO FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH...WITH 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO 
READINGS NORTH.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A DRY AND COLD DAY...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERING 
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW ZERO IN MANY LOCATIONS...HIGHS IN 
THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WILL BE A DECENT RISE. WINDS LOOK TO BE 
RATHER LIGHT THOUGH...AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD TO 
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF 
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE 
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TOWARDS DAWN SATURDAY AS AN 
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BE 
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE NIGHT BEFORE DUE 
TO INCREASING CLOUDS.

CHANCES FOR MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY 
INCREASE ON SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE AND 
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE REGION. GREATEST COVERAGE 
OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE 
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL 
MODERATE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...WITH MID 20S IN THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE VALLEYS. STILL BELOW 
NORMAL...BUT AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  
MORE OPEN WATER ON LAKE ONTARIO WILL MEAN A CHANCE FOR LAKE ENHANCED 
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY 
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ENDS THE PERIOD ON A MOSTLY DRY NOTE.  A COLD 
FRONT DIPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA MAY AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD 
THE END OF THE WEEK.
 
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY MILDER THAN IN RECENT 
WEEKS...THEY WILL AVERAGE ONLY AROUND NORMAL.  TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY 
WILL BE MILDEST...WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 
40S...AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND HEAD OFF THE COAST AND 
OUT TO SEA THIS MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE LOW HAS EXTENDED AS FAR NORTH AS THE LOWER/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND 
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT SNOW HAS OCCURRED AT KPOU. GUIDANCE 
INDICATES THE PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD LATER THIS MORNING 
ENDING THE THREAT FOR SNOW AT KPOU. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN 
FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHILE ALOFT THE UPPER SHORT 
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES DURING THE DAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION 
THIS EVENING.

OUTSIDE MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR 
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER BY 
THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD. 

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 
AROUND 15 KNOTS...DECREASING THIS EVENING. 

OUTLOOK...

FRI-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. 
SAT-MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SHSN. 

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 

ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH 
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK WELL BELOW FREEZING. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL 
RETREAT OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL AVERAGE 
BELOW NORMAL. 

A MODERATING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPS. SOME SNOW WILL START 
TO MELT...BUT WILL BE ON A DIURNAL CYCLE WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK 
BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...JPV



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