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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 312353
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
753 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION 
TONIGHT WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING PRIOR TO 
MIDNIGHT.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH SOME ISOLATED 
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE 
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.  ANOTHER DISTURBANCE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...AND A WEAK SURFACE WAVE NEAR 
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
TO THE REGION TO OPEN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM EDT...ONLY SOME WEAKENING SHOWERS REMAIN FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS SE VT...NW CT...AND ALSO THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
2-3 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXIST. PATCHY CLOUDS WILL MOST LIKELY LINGER FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA
REGION...SE VT...AND ALSO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...FROM THE REMNANTS OF ANTECEDENT CONVECTION.

LATER THIS EVENING...SKIES SHOULD TREND MOSTLY CLEAR. THE CLEARING
SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW SOME RADIATIONAL
COOLING. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE MAJOR RIVER
VALLEYS...AND OVER SRN VT...AND PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND U50S WITH SOME U40S TO L50S OVER THE
SRN DACKS...AND L50S OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...SRN GREENS...AND
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR
JAMES BAY WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT FLOW IMPACTING NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. THERE ISN/T A CLEAR SHORT-WAVE OR IMPULSE IN THE ERN SIDE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD POOL IS WEAKER AT H500...BUT
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN THE MTNS AND VALLEYS COULD CAUSE SOME
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALSO...CLOSER TO THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS COULD CLIP
PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. PARTS OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...MAY STAY DRY FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. THE POPS REMAIN LOW ON THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE FOR
THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THE NAM MOS AND NAM ARE THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE POPS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE SLIGHTLY INCREASING WITH SFC DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER 60S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. H850 TEMPS IN
THE +13C TO +14C RANGE SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 80-85F
RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MID AND U70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FRI NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING...THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START TO END...EXCEPT SOME SHOWERS COULD
START TO INCREASE WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK SFC WAVE AND A SHORT-WAVE MOVE
ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH...AND NORTH OF THE ERN SEABOARD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE NAM IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH...AND LATER WITH
THIS QPF. OUR CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY
POPS YET...BUT CHC POPS WERE STARTED PRIOR TO 12Z/SAT OVER THE SRN
MOST ZONES. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS
WITH U50S TO L60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND 50S OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS
OF THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE DAY COULD BEGIN WET WITH THE
IMPULSE MOVING ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT OFF THE COAST PER THE
ECMWF AND SOME OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES. THIS WAVE COULD IMPACT
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE EARLY PM. ANOTHER
WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL SW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
MIDWEST COULD FOCUS OTHER SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE BEST SFC BASED INSTABILITY OFF THE
GFS IS IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. THE BETTER HEATING COULD OCCUR THIS FAR NORTH...WITH
CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE SOUTH. PWATS START TO INCREASE TO
1.25-1.50 INCHES OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE REGION. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION. AFTER THE
DIURNAL HEATING...THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN.
THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...BUT A LOW
CHANCE WAS KEPT IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE M70S TO L80S OVER THE REGION...WITH A FEW COOLER VALUES
OVER THE HIGH PEAKS. MORE SUNSHINE IS LIKELY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION. LOWS WERE FAVORED CLOSER TO THE WARMER NAM MOS MINS WITH
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS...AND M50S TO AROUND 60F OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL OPEN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WRN CONUS WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS. THE BERMUDA HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD WESTWARD EARLY IN THE
LONG TERM WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE EAST COAST.
HOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF
THE REGION...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED...AND
MORE ZONAL BY THE MID WEEK.

THE WPC GUIDANCE WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY UP TO THE MID WEEK.  SLIGHT 
DEVIATIONS WERE MADE IN TERMS OF POPS/WX LATE IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO 
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ZONAL OR SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY 
THE MID WEEK OVER THE CONUS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SW FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FCST AREA.  THE 2ND HALF OF 
THE WEEKEND SHOULD START OUT DRY FOR SOME OF THE AREA WITH HIGH 
PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE VIRGINIAS...THEN ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE IN 
THE SW FLOW WILL FOCUS SOME SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS...PWATS RISE TO 1 TO 2 STANDARD 
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.  THE NAM IS VERY WET WITH THIS 
SHORT-WAVE...AND PERHAPS A SFC WAVE RUNNING ALONG THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST.  OUR FCST CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO A 
WPC/ECMWF/GFS COMPROMISE HERE.  SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY BE 
POSSIBLE DURING TH AFTERNOON.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD 
DIMINISH QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH A WEAK SFC HIGH BUILDING 
IN AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST 
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW APPROACHING 
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.  A CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
LOOKS POSSIBLE AGAIN.  TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE HERE WITH HIGHS IN THE 
U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS.  

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.  
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HERE.  THE 00Z 
ECMWF AND THE LATEST WPC DATE ARE SLOWER THAN THE GFS.  MOST OF THE 
MON NIGHT PERIOD WAS KEPT DRY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS 
OVER THE SRN DACKS.  BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD 
OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY.  SFC DEWPTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN 
THE 50S TO AROUND 60F...SOME MODEST AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY LOOK 
POSSIBLE.  AFTER LOWS IN THE 50S TO L60S...HIGHS ARE ONCE AGAIN 
EXPECTED IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY 70S OVER 
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME 
FRAME WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL.  HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDS IN FROM ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT INTO 
WED...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST...AND MID ATLANTIC 
REGION WITH A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY WX EXPECTED.  THE QUESTION WILL 
BE IF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE REGION ESPECIALLY LATE WED 
INTO THU.  ONLY SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE GRIDDED FCST 
DATABASE ON WED AND THU...EXCEPT OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY/ERN 
CATSKILLS WHERE A SLIGHT CHC WAS INCLUDE LATE WED.  TEMPS STILL LOOK 
FAIRLY SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TRICKY CALL ON FOG/STRATUS POTENTIAL FOR LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AFTER MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
05Z/FRI...THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST...ESP AT
KGFL/KALB AND KPSF. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...AND
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR SHOULD PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
05Z-08Z/FRI. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
KGFL AND KPSF. HOWEVER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT IFR
VSBYS/CIGS DEVELOP AT KALB AS WELL...ESP BETWEEN 08Z-10Z/FRI.

ANY FOG/STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 11Z-13Z/FRI...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP FRI
AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS EAST AND WEST OF THE TAF
SITES. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD APPROACH
KPOU AND KPSF...WHERE VCSH HAS BEEN INDICATED.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND TO CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY LATE FRI MORNING AT 5-10
KT...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. 
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. 
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. 
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. 
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION 
TONIGHT WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ENDING PRIOR TO 
MIDNIGHT.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WEAKEN TOMORROW WITH SOME ISOLATED 
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE 
HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE AIR MASS WILL
BECOME MORE HUMID ON THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY. 

THE RH VALUES WILL HAVE AN EXCELLENT RECOVERY TONIGHT TO 90 TO 100
PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION...THEN LOWER TO 40 TO 65 PERCENT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT
SATURDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
25 MPH OVER THE CATSKILLS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH OR LESS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LITTLE
OR NO EFFECT ON THE FLOWS IN THE ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA. 

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY 
RETURNING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR...AND
MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS...
ESPECIALLY ON THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...WHEN PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES MAY EXCEED 1.50 INCHES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION.

WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA







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