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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 270222
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
922 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF CAPE COD 
TONIGHT...AND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THANKSGIVING 
AFTERNOON.  PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE 
TONIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES 
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME 
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO 
THANKSGIVING NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN BRIEFLY FOR FRIDAY 
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
     WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...EXCEPT FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTIES UNTIL 7 AM
THURSDAY...

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY UNTIL
7 AM EST THURSDAY...

     THIS UPDATE IS TO ADD HAMILTON COUNTY TO THE WINTER STORM
WARNING...

WINTER HAS ARRIVED ON THANKSGIVING EVE...WITH THE FIRST BIG
COASTAL NOR'EASTER FOR THE 2014-15 SEASON!

UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE SNOWS NOW OCCURRING OVER EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. VERY NARROW ENHANCED BANDS WITH BRIEF BURSTS
OF DRYER AND FLUFFIER SNOW AND SOME MIXED GRAUPEL ARE BUILDING
EAST. STRONG NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT ARE LIKELY LINING UP THE BANDS WITHIN THE ENHANCED ZONE
OF FRONTOGENESIS AND CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE PARALLEL SNOW BANDS IS ENTERING THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

BASED ON THE RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS...THE BRIEF HEAVY SNOW
AND GRAUPEL BURSTS SHOULD END IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE
GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BY MIDNIGHT...AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS AN
LARGE AREAS OF VERY LIGHT SNOW BEHIND THE UPPER DEFORMATION
AREA...BUT ONCE THE HEAVIER SNOW AND GRAUPEL BURSTS HAVE MOVED
OUT...VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED.
SO...UPDATING THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS
AND KEEPING ALL HEADLINES AS IS UNTIL EVEN THE TRAILING LIGHT SNOW
ENDS.

THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE...AND ALL THE PCPN SHOULD
DIMINISH TO SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES BTWN 09Z-12Z...BUT WE WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S WITH TEENS TO L20S
OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS. THE WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT
OF THE N TO NW AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THANKSGIVING...A BRIEF LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...AS
THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...AN 
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL APPROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORT-
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLD-
SCT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS OF A
COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE M20S TO M30S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT...A BETTER CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION WITH THE WEAK DISTURBANCE. SOME WESTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS MAY YIELD SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF
THE SRN GREENS...AND WRN DACKS...AND TACONICS. WEAK COLD ADVECTION
WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS TO L20S.

FRI-FRIDAY NIGHT...THE GFS/NAM SHOWS SOME RIDGING BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY. THE SCT SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END PRIOR TO NOON WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
PARTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS...AND
M20S TO L30S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. A QUICK SHOT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SFC HIGH OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. THE NEXT WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN THE
FLATTENING MID-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHES FRI NIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SCT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION BTWN
06Z-12Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY UNSETTLED 
WEATHER BEFORE IMPROVING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE 
UNDERNEATH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING AND 
BECOMING ZONAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. IN THIS DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW 
REGIME ALOFT...PIECES OF NORTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE 
QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTS NORTHWEST OF 
THE REGION. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION 
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY BREAKING OUT AHEAD OF IT ESPECIALLY NORTH 
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. NOT MUCH MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL 
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...SO ANY RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE 
SCATTERED IN NATURE. THIS WARM FRONT WILL HELP USHER IN A SLIGHTLY 
MILDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S FOR 
MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE SUNDAY 
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT. 
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL 
REGION MAY RECEIVE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL AHEAD OF THE COLD 
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO 
START NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM 
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S SATURDAY...BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 40S 
SUNDAY...UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY...UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUESDAY 
AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES 
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER 20S TO 
MID 30S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AND TUESDAY 
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD SNOW AND HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF 
TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THIS EVENING WITH IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS.
BETWEEN 02Z AND 06Z CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 10Z THURSDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPSF WHERE
CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH ABOUT 14Z THURSDAY...THEN
KPSF SHOULD GO VFR. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY SO VCSH INCLUDED IN ALL FORECASTS THROUGH
THE DAY TOMORROW.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 8-12 KTS WITH SOME 
GUSTS OF 14 TO 18 KT THROUGH THE EVENING...THEN BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KTS BY
LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION
TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. TOTAL QPF OF 0.50 INCHES TO
1.25 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM.

MILDER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT.  HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ032.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA







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