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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 170517
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1246 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
MODERATE...BUT WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE FURTHER BY FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN
BEGINNING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1245 AM EDT...A MAINLY CLEAR COLD NIGHT IN PROGRESS. SATELLITE 
PICTURES DO INDICATE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. 
THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON THE OVERALL WEATHER. 

SO WITH THIS UPDATE...AGAIN ONLY EXTREMELY MINOR TWEAKING OF THE 
GRIDS.  

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. 
LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID 
TEENS IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL 
REGION. WE ARE FORECASTING TO TIE A RECORD LOW AT ALBANY...WHICH IS 
21 DEGREE SET BACK IN 1971.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FIRST HALF 
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH 
LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND 
VARIABLE. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER 
OF A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVING NORTHEAST INTO MAINE AS WE GO THROUGH 
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WITH EASTERLY WINDS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH 
PRESSURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK SURFACE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH 
FROM THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE 
MICHIGAN...A SOUTHEASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION. T850 AND T925 PROFILES SHOW COLD AIR FUNNELING
DOWN EQUATORWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
THIS WILL FUNNEL IN COOLER CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
T850 RANGING BETWEEN -2C AND -5C AND T925 RANGING BETWEEN -1C AND
1C. THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO HAVE SOME GRADIENT DEVELOPING
BASED OFF OF TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 40S FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND ESPECIALLY IN THE
BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS WHERE DOWN SLOPPING WINDS
WILL CAUSE LOCAL VALLEY AREAS TO REACH THE LOWER AND MID 50S UNDER
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO
UPPER 20S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS

AS WE GO INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY...LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE 
SHOWS A PROGRESSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH A WEAK SURFACE FRONT 
THAT IS VERY LIMITED IN MOISTURE SOURCES. THIS WILL LIMIT QPF TO 
AREAS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FRIDAY 
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE EXISTS. 
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SOUTHERLY STREAM JET STREAK THAT WILL 
PHASE INTO THE NORTHERLY FLOW THAT MIGHT ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL 
DYNAMICS FOR GREATER QPF AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO INITIAL 
LIMITED MOISTURE SOURCES AND THE JET STREAK BEING DISPLACED FURTHER 
EAST OF THE REGION WHEN DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE..CHANCES OF A HIGH 
QPF SITUATION ARE LIMITED BUT WILL BE MONITORED. DIURNAL TEMPERATURE 
TRENDS IN THE EVENING HOURS WILL SUPPORT RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE 
HIGHEST TERRAIN. OTHERWISE...LOWEST POPS WILL EXIST SOUTH AND EAST 
OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION FARTHEST REMOVED FROM THE UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH LOCATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 
THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN HIGH TERRAIN TO UPPER 50S IN VALLEY 
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM LOW TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ECMWF IS NOW TRENDING WARMER...AND THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL 
BEGIN ON THE WET SIDE...WITH SHOWERS FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND... 
BUT THINGS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEAST 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM JAMES BAY 
AND ONTARIO.  A RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...RENDERING A CHANCE 
OF SHOWERS FOR MONDAY.  CHC POPS WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY... 
THOUGH...GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THIS WEAK FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY ACTUALLY ENDS UP AS IT TAPS ON INCREASING GULF MOISTURE.  
EVENTUALLY...A LARGE RIDGE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE POURS DOWN 
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY FINALLY 
BE DRY AGAIN.

DESPITE IT BEING AN ARCTIC HIGH MOVING IN FOR WEDNESDAY...THIS WILL 
BE A WELL MODIFIED AIR MASS...AND TEMPERATURES FROM ABOUT THE UPPER 
50S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES ON TUESDAY WILL BE ONLY A FEW DEGREES 
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE 
PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.  
SUNDAY...LIKE WEDNESDAY...WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 
60S...AND MONDAY WILL BE ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF TUESDAY/S WARMTH.  
LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S 
RANGE...AND THESE WILL REBOUND ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR SUNDAY 
NIGHT...AND ANOTHER 5 DEGREES FOR MONDAY NIGHT.  TUESDAY NIGHT 
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER UNDER PARTIAL CLEARING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD ENDING 
06Z FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION DURING THE 
REMAINDER THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND ON 
THURSDAY. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH 
LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE CIRRUS WILL BECOME THICKER THURSDAY EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT...BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST 
AROUND 10 KT BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN AND VARIABLE AGAIN 
THIS EVENING. 

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER IN THE DAY 
PROVIDED A HALF AN INCH TO ONE AND AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL 
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY SNOWFALL RANGING FROM AROUND 
ONE INCH TO AROUND FOUR INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY 
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE 
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED STILL REMAIN.

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING 
REGION WIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO 
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.  

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS 
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF 
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE 
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT HAVE LEAD THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT AT MANY RIVER POINTS IN THESE AREAS WITH MAINLY
MINOR OR MODERATE FLOODING OCCURRING. HOWEVER THERE IS MAJOR
FLOODING OCCURRING ALONG THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK. LARGER
MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS CONTINUE
TO RECEDE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS
TIME WHICH WILL BE UPDATED WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV/LFM











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