Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Albany, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KALY 200605
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
105 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN
THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY...AND A
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED...DAMP WEATHER WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN WILL
SETTLE IN MONDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...STILL SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION SO 
WILL LEAVE THE PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST AS IS. TEMPS WERE APPROACHING 
FREEZING IN THE FREEZE WARNING AREA AND WILL LIKELY SEE AN END TO 
THE GROWING SEASON IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD 
COUNTY. LOWS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE 20S TO 
AROUND 30. 

ON MONDAY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO THICKEN EARLY IN THE DAY AS A 
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SAINT 
LAWRENCE VALLEY BY LATE IN THE DAY. WHILE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA 
WILL REMAIN DRY ON MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARE FORECAST 
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY DARK BUT DID 
DELAY THE ARRIVAL BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. 

IT WILL TURN MILDER ON MONDAY AS H8 TEMPS REBOUND TO +1 C TO +5 C BY 
LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S 
NORTHWEST...MID 50S LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UPPER 50S TO 
NEAR 60 SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD 
BEGINS WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BOTH RUN TO RUN AND AMONG THE 
MODELS AVAILABLE . MON NT A SERIES OF 500 HPA SHORT WAVE 
DEEPEN...THEN CUT OFF OVER THE E GRTLKS. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY MORE 
OR LESS VERTICAL W/SFC LOW NR TORONTO CA. INITIALLY MON NT IT HAS 
RESULTED IN OVC CLDS AND DEVELOPING -SHRA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN 
THE INCRG S-SE FLOW OFF ATLC ASSOC WITH OFFSHORE SFC HIGH.

DURING TUES/TUES NT 500HPA CUT OFF DIVES S INTO MID ATLC AND TOP 
DOWN SFC COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS GRADUALLY ENSURES ALONG THE DELMARVA/ 
NJ COAST. THRU TUES NT MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS ARE DRIVEN 
BY THE CUTOFF AND INLAND SYSTEM. WHILE SOME ATLC MOISTURE WILL BE 
INGESTED...MUCH OF THAT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TIL WED. 

SO PCPN WILL START AS SCT -SHRA...AREAS OF DRIZZLE...EVOLVING INTO 
AREAS OF -RA . WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TILL SOME GRADIENT ORGANIZES TUES 
NT. 

WED AND WED NT SYSTEM IS LARGELY VERTICAL. WITH DEVELOPED COASTAL 
LOW WIND WILL INCR. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL PLACEMENT 
OF SYSTEMS AND FEATURES...BUT AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. THE NAM 
& GEM ARE FURTHER EAST...IMPLYING LESS QPF THAN THE GFS. THROUGH 
00UTC OCT 23 MOST RECENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAVE MOSTLY 1-2 IN QPF...A 
FEW OUTLIERS FROM 2.25 TO NEARLY 4 IN...ONE LESS THAN THIS. 

HWVR...ITS IMPACTING THE WHOLE NORTHEASTERN EASTERN SEABOARD...WITH 
THE CENTER MEANDERING AROUND THE NY BIGHT (OFF LI/NJ) WITH A DREARY 
PERIOD WITH INTERMITTENT RAIN...AND TEMPS WILL BE NR TO SEVERAL 
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PARTICULARLY MINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH UNSETTLED DAMP AND RAINY 
WEATHER. THE AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW WILL LIKELY BE JUST BEGINNING 
TO PULL AWAY FROM THE LONG ISLAND COAST...VERY SLOWLY. OUR REGION 
WILL REMAIN IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE (AREA OF ASCENT ON THE NORTHWEST 
SIDE OF THE CYCLONE). THIS WILL LIKELY MEAN ADDITIONAL RAIN 
THURSDAY...SLOWLY TAPERING TO SHOWERS BY FRIDAY. 

IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR A LITTLE SNOW OVER THE 
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS...BUT 
RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE A PRIMARY RAIN EVENT. 

BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FINALLY...THE UPPER AIR LOW AND ITS 
ASSOCIATED VERTICALLY STACKED SURFACE LOW...WILL BE MOVING INTO THE 
GULF OF MAINE. IT WILL SLOWLY LOOSE INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION. 
HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BUFFET THE REGION WITH GUSTY WINDS...AND 
UPSLOPE SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST 
OF ALBANY.       

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY TO PROVIDE DRY AND 
COOLER WEATHER. 

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY 
AND FRIDAY...WARMING TO THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S SOUTHEAST 
SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE COOL BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S 
NORTHWEST TO UPPER 50S SOUTHEAST. 

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO 
UPPER 40S THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.     

THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO THE 
WEEKEND AS THERE ARE LARGE SPREADS IN THE GUIDANCE. RAIN WILL A 
GENERIC 20 POP FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD 
ENDING 06Z TUESDAY. PATCHY STRATOCU DECK IN 3500-5000 FT AGL RANGE 
WILL EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BY DAWN...ALTHOUGH MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS 
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-8 KTS 
BY NOON TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF 
SHRA. 
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA. 
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD NIGHT ON TAP WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO OR BELOW FREEZING 
REGION WIDE ALONG WITH FORMATION OF FROST. THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP 
QUITE QUICKLY AFTER DARK. 

MONDAY WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH A LIGHT WIND BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND 
10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 30S IN THE 
VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN.   

A VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER AIR LOW SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR 
WEATHER LATE MONDAY AND PROVIDE CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF 
RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BY 
FRIDAY. WHILE IT WILL NOT NECESSARILY BE CONSTANTLY RAINING...IT  
SHOULD MUCH OF THE TIME WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE WELL OVER 
A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL. 

DRIER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF NEAR THE REGION. INTERMITTENT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

IN THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS
EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD
OF A FEW DAYS...AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME. 

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NYZ049-050-052-
     053-059-060-064-065.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...GJM/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA/HWJIV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA












National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy