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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 260553
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
153 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA
TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW OF INCREASING MOISTURE FOR
THE WEEKEND. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO
THE GREAT PLAINS AND BUILDS EAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR TODAY EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ACRS THE FA AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

FOR TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL START TO MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
ACCOMPANYING THE ENERGY ALOFT TONIGHT...WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL
FOCUS SO WILL MENTION HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS OVERNIGHT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S WITH WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LARGE 500HPA CUTOFF OVER QB WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WVS WRAP AROUND ITS BASE...CULMINATING WITH A
POWERFUL SHORT WV MONDAY...THAT CARVES OUT A FULL LATITUDE 500HPA TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...MORE REMINISCENT OF OCT THAN LATE JULY.

SUNDAY MORNING A WK WMFNT WILL BE ALONG THE NY/NEW ENG BORDER TO A
WK SFC LOW IN THE ST LAWRENCE. WHILE A WK CDFNT FRONT TRAILS FM
LOW INTO E PA. AT 500HPA A SHORT WV IS OVER FCA. BTWN 15-18UTC
THESE SYSTEMS EXIT FCA ALONG WITH THEIR ASSOC -SHRA. THIS LEAVES A
WARM HUMID AIR MASS WITH TD IN 60S ACROSS FCA...AND MIX OF CLOUDS
AND SUN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS IS CERTAINLY A RECIPE FOR
AFTN CONVECTION.

DURING THE AFTN CAPES BUILD TO 1000-1800 J/KG ON GFS...1000-2500
J/KG ON NAM. 700-500HPA LAPSE RATES INCG TO 7C IN NAM...BUT ONLY
5.5 ON GFS. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 25KT (NAM) TO 35KTS
(GFS). 

ALL GUID SHOWS A BIAS TWRD THE SE PRTNS OF FCA FOR HIGHEST CAPES/LAPSE/SHEAR
RATES. GFS MDL SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE TO NO CAPPING BY AFTN...BUT
THE NAM SHOWS CAP ARND 650HPA...BUT WITH SUFFICIENT SUN THIS WILL
BE OVERCOME LATE IN THE DAY. SO IF THE SUN COMES OUT...THIS CAPE
WILL BE TAPPED IN SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS...PARTICULARLY SE.

IS WHAT ISN'T AS PRONOUNCED AS PVS RUNS IS THE PRESENCE OF UPPER
DYNAMICS. THE NAM/GFS/GEM ALL HV ONE SHORT WV EXITING FCA IN LATE
MRNG...AND A SECOND MVNG INTO EPA/NJ DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE
BULK OF THIS ENERGY STAYING S OF FCA...OR IN S PERIPHERY OF FCA.
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TSTMS IS SE PRTNS OF
FCA. ELSEWHERE MARGINAL FOR STRONG STORMS...BUT COULD STILL BE A
CONCERN...BUT IT WILL BE ISOLD PULSE TYPE AND NOT PARTICULARLY
ORGANIZED. SPC HAS SO FAR KEPT DAY 3 OUTLOOK WEST OF BGM.

OTHERWISE A WARM HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
SOUTH. SUN NT THIS SHRT WV OVER EPA/NJ LIFTS NE INTO FCA...AS
500HPA TROF SHARPENS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG JET MAX AND ITS ASSOC
VORT MVNG INTO E GRTLKS. IN RESPONSE SFC CYCLONE ENSUES OVER E
GRTLKS AND TRACKS NE BY MON MRNG. SUN NT -SHRA/TSMS WILL INCRG IN
COVERAGE ACROSS FCA BCMG WIDESPREAD BY MRNG. A MUCH STRONGER CDFNT
IN THE ST. LAWRENCE VLY WILL BE DRAWN INTO THIS DEEPENING CYCLONE.

ON MON MRNG THIS CDFNT IS FM RUT TO NY I88 CORRIDOR. N OF IT PCPN
WILL EVOLVE INTO AN ANNA FRONT RAIN/SHRA...WHILE ALONG IT AND TO
ITS S & E...WM SECTOR CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1700 J/KG WILL CONTINUE
TO ALLOW EMBEDDED TSTMS TO FORM AHEAD AND NR THE CDFNT. THIS CDFNT
WILL SLOWLY DRAG E THROUGH THE AREA MON WITH -SHRA/TSTMS LIKELY.

TO ITS N TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S...REACHING THE 80S TO ITS S
AND E MON. 

MONDAY NIGHT THE 500HPA SHORT WVS & SFC LOW WILL RACE NE INTO
QB...CARVING A FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER THE E CONUS. THIS DRAGS THE
CDFNT TO THE COAST...AND -SHRA WILL DIM AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN
ON BRISK N WINDS. 

TUESDAY MRNG SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER GRT PLAINS MVS EAST. CDFNT
SLIDES OUT TO SEA...SCT -SHRA END. WITH 500HPA TROF AXIS STILL
WEST OF FCA...MUCH OF FCA WILL REMAIN IN DRY SLOT TUES AND TUES NT
AS COOLER AIR MASS FILTERS INTO FCA. TEMPS WILL BE 5-10 DEG BLO
NORMALS WITH HIGHS UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S. TUES NT WILL SEE LOWS
MID 40S TO MID 50S UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN 
AMPLIFIES WITH A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED 
STATES WITH A RIDGE OUT WEST. THE TROUGH WILL BE A RESULT OF A  
POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT 
INTO MONDAY. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH BE DOMINATED BY THE 
TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH A LARGE CUT LOW CENTERED NEAR HUDSON'S 
BAY.

THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING 
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM 
LINGERS OVER THE REGION AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE 
TROUGH. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM 
SLOWLY EXITS THE REGION. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK 
WEEK...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN UNDER THE 
UPPER TROUGH. 

THE WORK WEEK WILL START OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO 
THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST 
DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S...AROUND 10 DEGREES 
BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL 
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT WITH A RETURN 
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING TODAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z SUN. THE EXCEPTION 
WILL BE SOME FOG AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD 
RESULTING IN MVFR/IFR CONDS. OTHERWISE IT BE MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH 
FEW-SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPING SATURDAY. EXPECT BATCHES OF CIRRUS TO 
STREAM OVERHEAD WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN LATE IN THE 
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5 
TO 10 KNOTS...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING.
 
OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...SETTING UP A RETURN 
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY INTO THE WEEKEND. 
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A 
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY 
SUNDAY...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED 
TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING 
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT 
TONIGHT...THE DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 45 PERCENT 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 90 TO 100 
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BECOME 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON SATURDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY 
AROUND 5 KT SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON. 
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY SATURDAY 
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...WHICH 
MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE 
LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA. 

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE 
THROUGH MID WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE 
REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/JPV
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV







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