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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 231131
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
731 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL 
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH 
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL 
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL 
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE 
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...BANDS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SPRAWLING VERTICALLY STACKED COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS RESULTING IN A CONVEYOR-BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC. CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IS
LIKELY...BUT SHOULD NOT POSE ANY SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS. REFER
TO HYDRO SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CHALLENGING ASPECT HAS BEEN A RATHER SHARP GRADIENT TO THE RAIN 
SHIED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED AREAS SUCH AS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND 
MOHAWK VALLEY TO REMAIN GENERALLY RAIN-FREE AS OF 645 AM. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LOWER POPS IN THESE AREAS UNTIL LATER THIS
MORNING WHEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN WILL IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY REACH
MUCH OF THIS AREA. LOCATIONS FROM AROUND ROUTE 28 NEAR OLD FORGE
NORTHWARD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY MEASURABLE RAIN THOUGH...SO WILL
GENERALLY MENTION CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS.

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS OUTPUT FROM HI RES MODELS SUCH AS 
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF...THESE BANDS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT 
THE REGION WITH VARYING INTENSITY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
WEAKENING LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LOW STARTS TO FINALLY TRACK
EASTWARD. LIGHTER RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS...BUT THE INTENSITY SHOULD WANE AS WE LOSE THE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WITH THE CLOUDS...RAIN AND PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE MUCH
TODAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO PULL AWAY FROM THE COAST
TONIGHT AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE
GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WE WILL STILL BE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME...WITH PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. SO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION LIKELY POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING...TAPERING TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. AS THE FLOW REGIME
STARTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING...SOME UPSLOPE
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST AND
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION 
FRIDAY...THE FLOW WILL STILL BE MAINLY CYCLONIC WITH LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK AROUND THE LOW. SO WE ARE EXPECTING PLENTY OF 
CLOUDS DESPITE CHANCES FOR RAIN DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE BY 
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH 
TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN THURSDAY. A FEW BREAKS OF 
SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET SOUTH AND WEST OF ALBANY.

SKIES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A SMALL SURFACE 
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER... THE 
NEXT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY 
EARLY SATURDAY...AS A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 
STRONG UPPER JET APPROACHES. SO SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT WITH SOME 
SUNSHINE...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE 
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE 
CAPITAL DISTRICT LATE IN THE DAY. WITH ENOUGH SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPS 
COULD REACH THE LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER 
SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. 
LATEST MODEL RUNS TRACK THESE SYSTEMS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS 
RUNS...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS PCPN ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON 
SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY PRODUCE 
PCPN ACROSS NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...WITH LITTLE IF ANY PCPN 
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS AND MOST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE FORECAST 
LIKELY POPS OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA 
SATURDAY NIGHT...DECREASING TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE 
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. ON SUNDAY POPS WILL RANGE FROM 
HIGH CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO SLIGHT CHANCE 
OR DRY CONDITIONS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS 
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL BE MILD WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 
40S. FOLLOWING THE TROF PASSAGE...IT WILL TURN BLUSTERY WITH 
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY...HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO 
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE 
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH FAIR AND WARMER WEATHER TO 
START THE NEW WORK WEEK. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 40 
DEGREE RANGE. HIGHS MONDAY 50 TO 60. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 
30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. 

DURING TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM 
THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WED AFTN AND EVENING. MOST OF 
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO BETWEEN 
20 AND 40 PERCENT ON WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 
40S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF NEW JERSEY WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
PROVIDING A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AS OF 700 AM...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF 
TAF SITES...BUT CIGS/VSBYS MAINLY IN THE MVFR TO OCCASIONAL VFR 
RANGE. THE RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF 
SITES THROUGH THE MORNING. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IFR 
CONDITIONS REPORTED DURING THE NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDE SOME TEMPO
GROUPS FOR IFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 14Z AT KALB/KPSF WHERE IT
APPEARS THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...KPOU WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE 
RAIN TAPERS TO -SHRA. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO 
THE EVENING...THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AT KALB AND KGFL AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
AT KPSF...VSBYS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT...BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN 
MVFR.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES AT 8 TO 12 
KTS...WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM CENTERED SOUTH OF CAPE COD...WILL 
CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDY...DAMP...AND COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH 
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF RAINFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL 
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND MOVE OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL 
FINALLY BREAK FOR SOME SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH ANOTHER 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THE 
THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ONLY BE 70 PERCENT OR GREATER 
TODAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BE BETWEEN 90 AND 100 
PERCENT. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF AROUND 50 TO 65 
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS 
NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 
MPH...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 

PERIODS OF RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE RAIN WILL FALL MODERATE TO BRIEFLY 
HEAVY IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT AN ADDITIONAL 
INCH OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES 
ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS IN 
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND TACONICS. DUE TO RECENT DRY 
WEATHER...THIS RAINFALL IS RATHER BENEFICIAL TO THE REGION. THERE 
WILL BE SOME MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO RIVER 
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SOME PONDING OF 
WATER ON ROADWAYS OR FIELDS...OR IN POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS...BUT 
THE IMPACT SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...KL/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV







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