Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Albany, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KALY 221737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON 
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN 
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR 
MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
REGION. WITH STRONG W-NW FLOW...THE CLOUDS ARE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS AND GREENS...ALLOWING
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY OF SE VT AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN CT.

WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE FOR THE
WESTERN ADK/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN WHERE SOME LAKE
MOISTURE MAY AID IN PRODUCING PRECIP...BUT RADAR RETURNS ARE
SHOWING MAINLY JUST CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...TEMPS TODAY ARE
ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE AFTN BEFORE STARTING TO FALL BY LATE TODAY. TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE 
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF 
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW 
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING 
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.  

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY 
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED 
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. 
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN 
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS 
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR 
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES 
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE. 
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR 
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED 
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN 
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... 
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID 
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO 
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW 
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND 
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy