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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 021146
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
746 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SUPPLY THE REGION WITH ANOTHER DAY OF A 
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL BRING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ONCE MORE. A 
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING 
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN 
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER 
AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ONCE 
MORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...RADARS NOW SHOWING A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS 
WORKING INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD JUST BE 
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. 

FOR THIS UPDATE...ONLY VERY MINOR FINE TUNING OF THE HOURLY 
GRIDS...OTHERWISE THE PREVIOUS THINKING APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON 
TRACK.  

IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S 
IN OUTLYING AREAS...TO LOWER 70S RIGHT IN THE TRI-CITIES. 

WE LOSE THE FOG LATER THIS FOG AND SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE...MIXED 
WITH THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN 
FACT...SUNSHINE MIGHT ACTUALLY INCREASE MIDDAY. INITIALLY WE ARE 
"CAPPED" MEANING THAT THERE WILL BE A MID LEVEL WARM LAYER WHICH 
WOULD MITIGATE CONVECTION...OR AT THE VERY LEAST...PREVENT THE CU 
FROM GETTING TOO TALL. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST 
AREAS WHERE ENOUGH INSTABILITY MIGHT ALLOW FOR A POP UP SHOWER IN 
THOSE AREAS BEFORE NOON. 

OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME RATHER HOT AGAIN ONCE MORE AS TEMPERATURES 
CREST WELL INTO THE 80S. IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER 
LITCHFIELD COUNTY AMBIENT TEMPERATURES COULD TOUCH 90. COMBINE THAT 
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70...AND THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 
THE UPPER 90S...JUST SHY OF WHAT IS NEEDED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. MOST 
OTHER VALLEY AREAS...INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...WILL SEE 
APPARENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. HILLTOWNS WILL HAVE 
APPARENT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 85-90 RANGE.      

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH.

A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY WORKING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...IS 
FORECAST TO CROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND 
WEST OF ALBANY...AND DURING THE EARLY EVENING ALBANY SOUTH AND 
EAST. 

THE ENTRANCE OF A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET (NEAR 100 KTS) LOOKS TO 
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE BEST FORCING STILL LOOKS TO 
LIFT NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION BUT IT LOOKS CLOSER THAN THIS TIME 
YESTERDAY. 

THIS JET WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR. COMBINE THAT WITH 
PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY (SBCAPES AVERAGING AROUND 1500 J/KG)...AND 
IT IS A GOOD BET SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS 
AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST AND MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

MITIGATING FACTORS INCLUDE A MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ONLY 
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. ALSO...THE CAP THAT WAS DISCUSSED EARLY MIGHT 
PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD CONTINUE TO HINDER 
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS RATHER WEAK. 

IF THUNDERSTORMS DO GET GOING...THEY WILL HAVE A HEALTHY WIND FIELD 
TO WORK WITH...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS A 
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP. THESE COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND 
GUSTS. SPC CONTINUES TO ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF 
THE MOHAWK VALLEY IN "SLIGHT RISK" FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER 
WE WILL CONTINUE TO USE POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL 
EVERYWHERE ACROSS OUR REGION. 

BY FAR...THE BIGGEST THREAT TODAY WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...AND WITH 
ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE BIGGEST UPDRAFTS. 

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT AS 
THE COLD FRONT MOVES BY...LINGERING SHOWERS AND WEAKENING 
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. 

A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN 
OVERNIGHT...LOWERING TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 50S NORTHWEST OF THE 
CAPITAL REGION...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALBANY SOUTHWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...A NORTHWEST BREEZE 
10-15 MPH AND HIGH TEMPERATURES 80-85 IN THE VALLEYS (WARMEST NEAR 
POUGHKEEPSIE) MID TO UPPER 70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS 
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S. 

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE SKY IS 
EXPECTED TO CLEAR...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S REGION WIDE 
WITH MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE 
SOUTHERN GREENS. IT LOOKS AS IF SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM 
OVERNIGHT. 

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT OFFSHORE...ALLOWING A 
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BEGIN TO PUMP WARMER AND SLIGHTLY MORE HUMID AIR 
BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH AROUND 80 OVER THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN...CLOSER TO 85 IN THE VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE AROUND 
60. 

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN 
OUTLYING AREAS...60S MOST OTHER PLACES...LOCALLY UPPER 60S IN THE 
CAPITAL REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LARGE AND WARM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION 
FOR MOST OF FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND HIGHS 
IN THE 80S AS 850 MB TEMPS REACH +16 TO +18 DEG CELSIUS. LATE IN THE 
DAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PART 
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF APPROACH 
FROM THE WEST. 

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH 
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. MODEL 
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE...BUT THE MODELS ARE CLOSER 
THAN THEY WERE 24 HOURS AGO. ALL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW AGREE 
THAT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OUT 
OF THE REGION BEFORE SUNDAY...WITH SOME MODELS MUCH SOONER. WILL 
CONTINUE TO KEEP CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND 
SATURDAY...THEN LOWER POPS TO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE BY LATE SATURDAY 
NIGHT. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. HIGHS 
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...AND THE 70S TO 
LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S AS 
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINS TO SEEP IN.

ON SUNDAY A SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE 
REGION AND CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH 
PRESSURE AREA IS OF CANADIAN ORIGIN SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO 
MID 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER FOG/STRATUS AT KGFL/KPSF WILL BE GONE BY 13Z... 
OTHERWISE THE TAF SITES WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL A 
SHORTWAVE TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY 
AND MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH MAY GET CLOSE TO
TERMINALS...AND A VCSH GROUP WAS USED AT KALB BTWN 12Z-16Z.


BEGINNING 21Z TO 23Z HAVE FORECASTED A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW OF PROB30 FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS AT ALL THE TAF SITES. THE
THREAT FOR TSTMS WILL END WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z TUESDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY 
INTO THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AT 
4 TO 8 KTS. 

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF 
SHRA...TSRA. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION TODAY ALLOWING A COLD 
FRONT TO MOVE IN LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING 
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...MAINLY LATE 
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. 

IT WILL BE A RATHER HOT DAY WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE BEFORE THE SHOWERS 
AND STORMS ARRIVE. RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT 
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-15 
MPH. 

RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REACH AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR 
BETTER IN MOST AREAS FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...A QUARTER INCH OR LESS 
SOUTH OF ALBANY. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY 
RAINFALL PRODUCING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EASILY EXCEEDING AN INCH IN ANY 
GIVEN SPOT.  

RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TYPICAL 80-100 PERCENT RANGE 
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF BREEZE MIGHT PERSIST IN MANY AREAS...AS THE WIND 
SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST.

WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LOWER HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF 
SUNSHINE. A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER 
GUSTS INTO THE 20S...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY 
AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 
35-45 PERCENT RANGE. 

A FULL RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE WIND GOING CALM...AND RH 
VALUES NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH PLENTY OF DEW EXPECTED.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE FRIDAY 
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY. THEN...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM 
COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE 
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL WITH THESE 
STORMS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND HALF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS 
OF OUR HYDROLOGICAL SERVICE AREA (HSA)...NORTH OF ALBANY. LOOK FOR 
AROUND HALF AN INCH IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...AND LESSER 
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH OR LESS FURTHER SOUTH.

PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TWO INCHES TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR 
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM TO PRODUCE LOCALLY MUCH HEAVY 
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING AN INCH AND THIS RAIN COULD FALL IN A 
SHORT TIME. THEREFORE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PONDING 
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. WHILE THE THREAT 
FOR ANY ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING IS VERY LOW...A HIGH LOCALIZED 
FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER 
OF THE WORKWEEK. 

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/NAS







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