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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 011802
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
202 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...SOME ISOLATED TO 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND...ALONG WITH HUMID CONDITIONS...AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE NEARBY ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1225 PM EDT...OUR REGION REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A
STATIONARY FRONT WELL OFF THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH IN THE UPPER GREAT. ALOFT A H5 LOW OVER JAMES BAY
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SPOKES OF ENERGY IN THE FORM OF VORT MAXS
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL IMPACT FA FROM
TIME TO TIME INCLUDING THIS AFTERNOON. THE FAVORED AREA FOR
CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE TRACK OF THE VORT MAX ACRS
SE NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND WHICH WILL FAVOR THE SRN HALF OF THE FA
FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

THUS THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OR
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OR SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
RATHER SMALL DUE TO WEAK LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING IN PLACE.
ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER THE TERRAIN DUE TO
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES...AND WILL DRIFT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST DUE TO THE LIGHT FLOW IN PLACE. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED WITH JUST 250-750 J/KG OF SBCAPE...SO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST TODAY. THE LATEST NAM
AND THE HRRR-3KM REF PRODUCT INDICATED ISOLD COVERAGE AT
BEST...WITH PERHAPS A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE EXTREME S/SE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA /SE CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT/. ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM LOOKS TO BE
SHORT LIVED AND POORLY ORGANIZED...WITH NO THREAT FOR ANY
STRONG/SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...AND MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE
HIGH TERRAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WEAKENING AND FINALLY CROSSING OUR AREA BY SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A
SFC BOUNDARY WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP AND ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY FOR SATURDAY. PWAT VALUES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE
LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF OUR AREA TOWARDS NJ AND EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND.

AS A RESULT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. POPS AREN/T ANY
HIGHER THAN CHANCE AT THIS TIME...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SOME DIURNAL INFLUENCES...WE CAN/T RULE OUT ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS EITHER. WHILE
THE WEEKEND PROBABLY WON/T BE A FULL WASHOUT ACROSS OUR
AREA...IT/S POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. 

TEMPS EACH DAY LOOK FAIRLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH FOR THE PERIOD...HOWEVER  
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST GROW AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER PART 
OF THE WEEK. THE GUIDANCE IS HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH THE STRENGTHEN 
AND TRACK OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON THE 
LONGWAVE PATTERN. ALSO...TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DEVELOPED OVER THE 
TROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC...EAST OF THE SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES 
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER HAS BERTHA EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED 
STATES COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY 
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE FORECAST AND DETAILS ON BERTHA.

FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION 
CENTER FOR THE TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF SYSTEMS/BOUNDARIES TO MAINTAIN 
FORECAST CONSISTENCY. THE STALLED BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST IS 
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE EARLY IN THE WEEK...AS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE 
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY USHERING A LESS 
HUMID AIRMASS. OUR WEATHER WILL REMAINED UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO 
THE NEW WORK WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS 
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS STATES BY MID WEEK AND HEAD 
EASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 
 
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT NEAR THE ERN SEABOARD. A DISTURBANCE MOVING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH MAY BRING SOME RAINFALL AND IFR/LOW MVFR
CONDITIONS SOUTH OF KALB-KPSF BY DAYBREAK.  

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. CLOUDS WILL START TO THICKEN IN LOWER NEAR KPOU TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT. SOME RADIATIONAL MIST/FOG MAY FORM AT KGFL/KPSF WITH THE
INCREASE OF MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...COUPLED WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR IFR
MIST MAYBE BETWEEN 06Z-12Z...THOUGH SOME MVFR MIST IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE THAT TIME FRAME. THE CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS AT KPOU
TOWARDS 10Z WITH SOME SHOWERS OR A STRATIFORM RAIN AREA IMPACTING
THE REGION. EXPECT SOME IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO BE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z
THERE...AND MVFR CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY AT KPSF AFTER 13Z/SAT. KGFL
AND KALB ARE EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z/SAT WITH SOME VCSH
GROUPS ADDED.

SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
CALM OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 7 KTS PRIOR TO NOON TOMORROW. 

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. 
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE AREA. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 45 TO 55 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH. RH VALUES WILL
RECOVER BACK TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH FOG AND DEW
FORMATION. 

OVER THE WEEKEND...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT MOST OF
THE TIME...ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF THE AREA. ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
RATHER ORGANIZED...AND WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WHICH WILL PREVENT
ANY HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS.

HOWEVER...WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE GRADUALLY 
RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR...AND MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND
URBAN AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY PASS OVER
THE SAME LOCATIONS... ESPECIALLY ON THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

WIDESPREAD HYDRO ISSUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







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