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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 201738
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
139 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ON FOR ONE MORE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL 
HELP WARM TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND 
ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED 
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY...BRINGING SOME 
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA...ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDER. COOLER 
AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN 
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH 
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH 
ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY 
CLOUDY SKIES. THE REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON 
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY...
IN THE MID 60S INTO THE MID 70S. 

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY
SKY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD AS
DEWPOINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE 50S KEEP LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING
ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF I90 AS ADDITIONAL ENTRAINMENT OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS WITH INCREASING
SHEAR PROFILES ALL POINT TOWARD AN ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. AS PER THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...INSTABILITY PARAMETERS REMAIN WEAK BUT ELEVATED ENOUGH
TO CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. PER TIMING
OF WHEN PEAK HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCUR...THIS
APPEARS TO LINE UP ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND ADIRONDACK REGION.
IN FACT...THIS LINES UP WITH THE SWODY2 5% CONTOUR. SO WE WILL
REMAIN WITH THE SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY. STILL A MILD
DAY IN STORE AS VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S
/MAYBE 80F FOR THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD
COUNTY/ AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

FROPA TIMING DIFFERS FROM THE NAM AS IT REMAINS MUCH SLOWER THAN
THE OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SO WE FAVORED THE CONSENSUS
APPROACH OF A BIT FASTER TIMING. NEVERTHELESS...THERE WILL STILL
BE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE HIGH SO CAN NOT RULE
OUT ANOTHER SHOWER OR TWO IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO DROP BACK WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTION AS THE ZERO
DEGREE ISOTHERM AT H850 IS PROGED TO BE OVER EASTERN NY ON MONDAY.
WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS TOO WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS COMBINATION OF TIGHT GRADIENT AND MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS
BETWEEN H800-H900 YIELDS GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEAST TO
START THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE THROUGH THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE REGION...IT MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN AREAS BETWEEN MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...IT
WILL BE DRY WITH A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. MINS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...AND
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

A LARGE SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN TAKE OVER AND 
CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE HIGH WILL 
MOVE FROM OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON TUE/TUES NIGHT TOWARDS UPSTATE 
NY/NEW ENGLAND FOR WEDNESDAY...AND OFF THE COAST FOR THURS/FRI. THIS 
HIGH PRESSURE ALLOW WILL ALLOW FOR DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR 
SKIES. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH 
VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON WED...TO NEAR 70 ON 
THURS...AND LOW TO MID 70S FOR FRIDAY. WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND 
LIGHT WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT...AND 
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S /SOME UPPER 30S OVER THE HIGH 
TERRAIN.  MOST AREAS THAT STILL HAVE THE GROWING SEASON ONGOING LOOK 
TO AVOID A FROST/FREEZE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...BKN-OVC LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED
INTO THE REGION. FOR THE VALLEY TERMINALS...FLYING CONDITIONS ARE
STILL VFR...WITH CIGS AT 3500-5000 FT. MEANWHILE...KPSF HAS SEEN
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AROUND 2-3 KFT. ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME MVFR CIGS AT KGFL...FLYING CONDITIONS LOOK
TO STAY VFR FOR THE VALLEY TERMINALS...AND MVFR FOR KPSF. BASED ON
UPSTREAM CONDITIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...NO IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

BY THE MID MORNING HOURS...DAYTIME MIXING WILL HELP THIN OUT THE LOW 
CLOUDS...AND KPSF SHOULD RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AS WELL. SCT-BKN 
CLOUDS AT 4-7 KFT WILL THEN BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 
DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 10 KTS WITH SOME 
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. 

WITH THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE...A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS 
IS POSSIBLE FOR ALL SITES TONIGHT...ESP KPSF. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE AROUND 5-10 KTS. CONFIDENCE IN IFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING IS 
LOW AT THIS TIME...SO WE WILL NOT MENTION ANY IFR WITH THIS TAF 
ISSUANCE. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY...AS ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO HOLD OFF 
UNTIL SUNDAY AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH
WILL KEEP RH FIELDS A BIT ELEVATED WITH VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 50
AND 70 PERCENT. THOSE VALUES INCREASE TO BETWEEN 80 AND NEAR 100
PERCENT TONIGHT WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS.

THE SHOWER POTENTIAL INCREASES ON SUNDAY WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE TO KEEP RH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 60 PERCENT. 

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
TODAY...REMAIN NEAR 10 MPH TONIGHT THEN RETURN TO BETWEEN 10 AND
15 MPH ON SUNDAY WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A
QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LOWER AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN A
QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/IAA/BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM










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