Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Albany, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4]



000
FXUS61 KALY 230003
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
703 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL DRIFT OUT TO SEA..WITH
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. A WARM AIR SURGE
ALOFT TONIGHT WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY
MILDER WEATHER SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT A STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD
WEATHER FOR NOVEMBER MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE 
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO FAIR AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...WINTER WX ADVISORY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...HELDERBERGS...NRN TACONICS...NRN
BERKSHIRES...WASHINGTON CTY...AND SRN VT. MANY REPORTS OF SLEET
AND SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN COMING ON. THIS ADVISORY WILL GO TO 5 AM
SUNDAY...THOUGH PARTS MAY BE DROPPED SOONER. THE BETTER BATCH OF
PCPN IS OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY...NRN CATSKILLS...AND SRN
DACKS...BUT REPORTS KEEP COMING IN EASTWARD OVER THE CAPITAL REGION
AND BERKSHIRES. LARGE SFC T/TD SPREADS CONTINUE WITH
SLEET/-FZRA/-RA BEING REPORTED.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR THE MOHAWK VALLEY...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OUR REGION IS UNDER BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT THIS TONIGHT...AS A 120
KT JET STREAK IS SITUATED TO OUR SOUTHWEST...PUTTING EASTERN NY
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH THE FAST WESTERLY
FLOW AT 500 HPA. 

WITH SFC TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE WESTERN 
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...AND LAKE GEORGE 
SARATOGA REGION...THIS PRECIP MAY INITIALLY FALL AS A WINTRY MIX. 
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW WARMING ALOFT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN 
THE FAST W-SW MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT...BUT DRY AIR THE SFC SHOULD 
ALLOW SFC TEMPS TO WET BULB DOWN A FEW DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR 
A PERIOD OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ESP 
WITHIN THE SHELTERED AND ELEVATED VALLEY LOCATIONS. THIS IS THE 
REASON FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY HEADLINE...WHOSE START TIME WAS ALSO 
SPED UP TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS.

ELSEWHERE...SFC TEMPS WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING /SUCH AS IN 
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY/ OR PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE 
TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY. THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW POCKETS 
OF FREEZING RAIN THE CATSKILLS...SRN VT...TACONCIS AND 
BERKSHIRES...AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT 
FOR THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING 
PRECIP WILL BE FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...WITH MORE SPOTTY 
COVERAGE THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO. DRY LOW LEVELS WILL ALSO CAUSE A 
LOT OF PRECIP TO DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE SFC FOR VALLEY 
LOCATIONS...SO HIGH TERRAIN AREAS LOOK TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF 
SEEING PRECIP AS COMPARED THE VALLEYS. ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO TAPER OFF 
BY LATE TONIGHT...AS THE SFC WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK SLIDE 
EAST OF THE REGION.

AFTER TEMPS FALL THIS EVENING...THEY LOOK TO HOLD STEADY OR EVEN 
SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT.  MINS THIS EVENING LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW 
30S...AND MOST AREAS...EVEN NORTHERN/HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...LOOK TO BE 
ABOVE FREEZING BY AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. 

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THERE 
COULD BE AN EARLY MORNING RAIN SHOWER OVER THE  ADIRONDACKS... 
OTHERWISE NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED. IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING 
THE MORNING HOURS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE MORE BREAKS OF SUN AS THE 
DAY GOES ON THANKS TO BUILDING HEIGHTS...ESP IN THE AFTN. WARMING 
TEMPS ALOFT AND BREAKS OF SUN WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPS THAN 
RECENT DAYS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST 
LOCATIONS...WITH EVEN A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 IN THE MID HUDSON 
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/GEM/ECMWF)IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUN NT LARGE 500HPA TROF IN THE GREAT PLAINS
TRIGGERS A MAJOR CYCLOGEN EVENT IN THE GRTLKS (I HEAR A 1972 GORDON
LIGHTFOOT SONG). THIS INTENSE STORM LIFTS NE TWRD JAMES
BAY...DRAGGING A WMFNT AND A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN THROUGH THE RGN
SUN NT...ENDING MON MRNG. IN ITS WAKE A 16 HPA SW SFC WIND
GRADIENT IS ACROSS FCA...AND VERY MILD AIR IS PUMPING NE INTO RGN.

MON NT THE SYSTEMS TRAILING CDFNT AND THE 500HPA TROF MV ACROSS
RGN. GFS BRINGS THIS THROUGH ARND 00UTC...WITH THE OTHERS IMPLYING
A LATER TO OVRNT FROPA. GIVEN THE CLOSE TO PARALLEL NATURE OF THE
CDFNT TO THE 50HPA FLOW...FCST WILL GO WITH THE OVERNIGHT
FROPA...AND SHRA WITH FROPA. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...AVBL MOISTURE A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANT BE RULED OUT BUT CANT EXACTLY GET
EXCITED ABOUT MU CAPE OF 200 J/KG ATTM.

AFTN MON NT FROPA...INTENSE SFC LOW RACES NE INTO QB..AND FCA IS
MOSTLY IN THE DRY SLOT TUES AS THE LAST PIECES OF THE 500HPA TROF
PASS ACROSS NY/NEW ENG. SFC FLOW REMAINS WSW MUCH OF THE DAY. SO
MOST OF FCA WILL SEE BREEZY FAIR RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPS. LK
EFFECT MAY BEGIN INTO THE WEST ADIRONDACKS...WITH A BETTER CHC TUES
NT AS THE SFC/H850 FLOW TURNS W-WNW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED 
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...AS COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK CLOSE TO THE 
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THANKSGIVING.  THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH KEEPS TEMPS COLD AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND 
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY...MOST OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS AN H500 UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL 
BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...OR JUST OFF THE EAST 
COAST.  THE GFS HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS AND 
MOVING N/NE OUT TO SEA WITH SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING SNOW/SNOW 
SHOWERS PERHAPS IMPACTING EXTREME ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE 
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  THE CAN GGEM IS EVEN FURTHER EAST WITH THE 
STORM EVOLUTION AND TRACK.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE FURTHEST WEST OF 
THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS...AND IT WOULD BE PHASING SOME NRN AND SRN 
STREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FOR A MILLER TYPE-A STORM TRACK FROM NEAR 
THE CAROLINAS WED PM TO JUST SE OF THE DELMARVA REGION BY 00Z/THU.  
THIS TYPE OF STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION WOULD BE A BIG PROBLEM FOR 
THE WED PM TRAVEL INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.  OVER RUNNING PCPN WOULD BE 
SPREADING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE ONGOING CYCLOGENESIS INTO MUCH 
OF UPSTATE NY.  FOR NOW...WE HAVE CHC POPS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT 
EAST...AND SLIGHT CHC TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW OR 
A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN TO THE SOUTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED MOST THE 
GEFS MEMBERS AND ITS MEAN ARE EITHER EAST OF THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS 
OR ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH IT.  THE WPC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND 
THE GEFS MEAN.  WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF THE STORM IN THE HWO 
AT THIS TIME.  HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE U30S TO L40S IN THE 
VALLEYS AND U20S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

WED NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING...THE EXACT TRACK OF THE COASTAL OR 
OCEANIC CYCLONE IS THE BIG ISSUE HERE.  THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE A MAJOR 
STORM WITH THE CYCLONE DEEPENING TO 989 HPA JUST S/SE OF NYC AT 
06Z/27 TO 983 HPA JUST NE OF KBOS BY 12Z/27.  THE H850 CIRCULATION 
WOULD CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH 
PERSISTENT SNOWFALL.  AGAIN...THE GFS IS FURTHER TO THE EAST AND OUT 
TO THE ATLANTIC WITH THE STORM WITH A 992 HPA SFC CYCLONE NEAR NOVA 
SCOTIA BY 12Z/27.  SOME LIGHT SNOW IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE WED NIGHT 
INTO THU ON THE NW SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL 
DEFORMATION ZONE.  STAY TUNED ON THIS STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW 
DAYS.  LOWS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M20S TO L30S...AND HIGHS ON THU 
WILL RANGE FROM THE L30S TO L40S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

THANKSGIVING NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD 
AIR...AND A CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS THU NIGHT.  COLD AND BRISK 
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ON THE BUSY SHOPPING DAY ON FRIDAY...SOME 
WESTERLY UPSLOPE/LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL BE 
POSSIBLE FOR THE WRN DACKS...AND SRN GREENS DURING THE DAY.  LOWS 
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH SOME TEENS OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN 
GREENS...AND THE ERN CATSKILLS.  HIGHS ON FRI WILL BE BELOW NORMAL 
IN THE 20S OVER THE MTNS...AND U20S TO MAINLY M30S IN THE VALLEYS.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO RIDGE IN
FROM THE TN VALLEY WITH THE COLD WX PERSISTING...BUT A SHORT-WAVE
IN THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT MAY TRIGGER MORE ISOLD-SCT UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK THERMAL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TO ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THE MIXED PRECIP
OF -IP/-FZRA/-RA FOR KALB/KPSF/KGFL NORTH AND EAST. THE CIGS MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR CIGS BTWN 03Z-08Z/SUN AT KPOU...BUT NOT
MUCH PCPN IS EXPECTED THERE. THE BEST CHC OF A PERIOD OF -FZRAPL
IS AT KGFL AND KPSF BTWN 01Z-08Z/SUN. THE CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS IN THE MIXED PCPN. KALB WILL HAVE SOME -RA
AROUND BTWN 01Z-05Z WITH SOME MVFR CIGS VSBYS.

TEMPS WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT KGFL/KPSF TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...AND EXPECT ALL THE TAF SITES TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT KALB AND KPSF. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KTS TOMORROW IN THE LATE MORNING THRU 
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA/SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT THE REGION...MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
BASIN AVERAGE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN
INCH OR LESS...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. ALONG WITH A MILDER AIR MASS...A MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP
EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND A HALF INCH OR SO...LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047>054-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/KL







National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy