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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 310526
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1226 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE 
REGION WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUSLY COLD 
WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BRIEFLY IN 
CONTROL TO START THE WEEKEND...THEN A CLIPPER LOW SATURDAY NIGHT 
INTO SUNDAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE 
CAPITAL DISTRICT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT TO 
MONDAY...HOWEVER THE STORM TRACK IS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
...A WIND CHILL WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM SATURDAY FOR
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...

...A WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS UP FOR THE REST OF THE FCST AREA
EXCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS UNTIL 11 AM
SATURDAY...

AS OF 1212 AM EST...A BITTERLY COLD AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF AN ARCTIC FRONT...A STRONG
NW FLOW IS IN PLACE AT BOTH THE SFC AND MID LEVELS.

SKIES ARE ALREADY CLEARING OUT...AND MOST AREAS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY
CLEAR TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN BTWN THE SFC ANTICYCLONE
NEAR THE OH VALLEY...AND THE CYCLONE DEEPENING S/SE OF NOVA
SCOTIA. THE H850 WINDS INCREASE TO 40-55+KTS...H925 WINDS 30-50
KTS IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER
PROFILES SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME 30-35+ KT GUSTS MIXING DOWN
ACROSS LOCATIONS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION S/SE. EXPECT BLUSTERY NW
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE. H850
TEMPS PLUMMET TO -15C TO -20C FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND
WEST...AND -12C TO -15C SOUTH AND EAST.

OUR MIN TEMPS FAVOR THE COLDER METMOS VALUES WITH LOWS 10 TO 20 
BELOW ZERO OVER THE SRN DACKS....ZERO TO 10 BELOW OVER THE MOHAWK 
VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT...NRN CATSKILLS...N-CNTRL TACONICS...LAKE 
GEORGE NRN SARATOGA REGION...SRN VT WEST OF THE SRN GREENS...AND 
BERKS.  EXPECT ZERO TO 5 ABOVE READINGS OVER THE MID HUDSON 
VALLEY...SRN TACONICS...AND NW CT. 

THESE COLD TEMPS COMBINED WITH THE WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OR 
APPARENT TEMPS OF 30 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVER PORTIONS OF THE 
SRN DACKS...AND 15 TO 29 DEGREES BELOW ZERO OVER THE REST OF THE 
FCST AREA.

TOMORROW...NASTY WIND CHILLS CONTINUE MOST OF THE MORNING...AND THE 
HEADLINES RUN TO 11 AM.  THE CYCLONE BECOMES OCCLUDED NEAR NOVA 
SCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND.  THE SFC HIGH ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN 
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY THE AFTERNOON.  MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND 
VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL BE 
15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  OVERALL...DOWNRIGHT FRIGID 
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS ZERO TO 10 ABOVE OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN 
GREENS...AND PARTS OF THE BERKSHIRES. TEENS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE 
REST OF THE FCST AREA.  THE WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN LATE IN THE DAY.  
HOWEVER...ANOTHER MOISTURE SPARSE CLIPPER WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE 
W/NW FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER ANY
CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE STORM WOULD HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON 
THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

THE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ALOFT WILL FLATTEN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO 
SUNDAY AS THE STORM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FILLS AND HEADS 
NORTHWARD AND ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA AND DIGS 
A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION 
WILL WEAKENING AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE 
TENNESSEE VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE. TEMPERATURES 
ARE OUR REGION WILL MODERATE SUNDAY AND NOT BE BITTERLY COLD LIKE 
SATURDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES WITH MUCH WEAKER 
WINDS. 

AT THIS TIME...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD 
AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST MONDAY MORNING THEN HEAD NORTHEASTWARD
PASSING SOUTH OF CAPE COD. OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
CONTINUE WELL INTO MONDAY. BASED ON THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK ALL
SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHER THAN CLIMO
SNOW RATIOS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES SHOW SPREAD IN THEIR
FORECAST IN REGARDS TO STORM TRACK AND QPF AMOUNTS. THERE IS MODEL
CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME THE SYSTEM ALOFT REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND
DOES NOT CLOSE OFF AND DOES NOT BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED UNTIL ITS
WELL OFFSHORE. ANY CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE LOW WILL
HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THE GRADIENT OF
SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE PROBABILISTIC
SNOWFALL GUIDANCE FOR ALBANY RANGES FROM AS LITTLE AS 1 TO 2
INCHES UP TO AROUND 10 INCHES.
 
BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK AND EXPECTED QPF HAVE OUR HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK SEGMENTED AS FOLLOWS...

SIGNIFICANT (WARNING LEVEL) SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWESTERN 
CONNECTICUT...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON 
VALLEY...AND THE SOUTHERN TACONICS. 

MODERATE (ADVISORY LEVEL) SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN 
BERKSHIRES...THE MOHAWK AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...GREATER CAPITAL 
REGION...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...AND THE NORTHERN TACONICS AND 
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

LIGHT TO POSSIBLE MODERATE SNOWFALL FOR THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG 
WITH A FRESH SNOWCOVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED 
TO DROP TO BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 
DEGREES BELOW ZERO AND COLDER FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 
90. MAY NEED ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR 
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS 
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH...DRY AND COLD WEATHER 
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY 
WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS. LOW TEMPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 
SINGLE DIGITS...WITH A FEW SPOTS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. 
THESE TEMPS WON/T BE AS COLD AS THEY COULD BE...DUE TO INCREASING 
AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER AND A DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY WIND.

A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS 
CLIPPER STORM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE AREA OVER SOUTHERN 
CANADA...SO ANY FORCING WILL ONLY BE WITH THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. 
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SCATTERED 
SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD/ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY...WITH LIMITED AMOUNTS OF 
SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.  TEMPS WILL BE WARMER AHEAD OF THE 
BOUNDARY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. MINS LOOK TO BE IN THE 
TEENS TO LOW 20S...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE EXACT 
TIMING OF THE FRONT...AND HOW QUICKLY IT CLEARS OUT BEHIND IT.

ANOTHER VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THE 
LATE WEEK PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR MAY NOT ARRIVE 
UNTIL THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COASTAL WAVE LOOK TO BE MOVING UP 
THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE IN THE WEEK AS WELL...BUT IT SHOULD BE 
WELL OFFSHORE AND HAVE NO IMPACT ON THE REGION...AS WE WILL BE IN 
THE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. TEMPS LOOK TO 
BE IN THE 20S FOR THURSDAY...BUT WILL DROP TO -10 TO 10 ABOVE FOR 
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND ONLY REACH THE TEENS FOR FRIDAY. IT LOOKS 
FAIRLY COLD ONCE AGAIN FOR FRI NIGHT AS WELL WITH MANY LOCATIONS AT 
OR BELOW ZERO. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD TEMPS...IT SHOULD BE MAINLY 
DRY THURS/FRI...AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA 
WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE...KEEPING SKIES MAINLY CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES SAT NT.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT
KGFL/KALB/KPOU. AT KPSF...OCCASIONAL CLOUDS MAY PERSIST...POSSIBLY
INTO THE MVFR RANGE.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...WITH
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES...WITH JUST A FEW STRATOCU
CLOUDS AROUND BY LATE IN THE DAY. STRATOCU WILL THEN INCREASE SAT
EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT. W/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF
SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE GUSTS BETWEEN 08Z-
12Z/SAT BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 12Z-14Z/SAT. WEST
WINDS WILL DECREASE TO UNDER 10 KT AROUND SUNSET AND SHOULD
CONTINUE LIGHT FROM THE WEST INTO SAT NT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SNOW SHOWERS INTO EVENING WITH GENERALLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.

A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MODERATE
TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. ANY CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED TRACK
OF THE STORM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES 
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR 
     NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033.
MA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR 
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/WASULA







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