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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 181737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CONTINUE TO 
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER TODAY...WITH MORNING SUNSHINE GIVING WAY TO 
INCREASING CLOUDS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES 
TRACKS EAST. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OF RAIN 
OR SNOW TO AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION 
TONIGHT. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION 
FROM THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND 
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT...MADE JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS PERSISTING ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT ARE TRANSPARENT ENOUGH TO MENTION PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THICKER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS THE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH 6 PM ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FROM THE 
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT...WITH A SFC COLD FRONT PUSHING NW 
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AM. ALTHOUGH 
THERE IS A FAIR AMT OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM...LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE SCARCE...WITH MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE REMAINING IN A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AFFECTING THE GULF 
COAST AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS. SO...AT THIS TIME WE ONLY EXPECT 
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS EVENING ACROSS THE 
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHICH MAY SPREAD AS FAR S AS THE MOHAWK 
VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND 
PERHAPS SOME UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERMAL 
PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN WOULD FALL...BUT ANY SHOWERS THAT OCCUR 
AFTER MIDNIGHT COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AS SOME COOLER AIR SEEPS 
SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT 
MINS TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE 
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT...WITH MAINLY MID TO UPPER 30S 
ELSEWHERE AS A BIT OF WIND...AND SOME CLOUDS KEEP TEMPS SLIGHTLY 
MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS.

SAT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE 
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION SAT AM. AGAIN...SOME SPRINKLES OR 
FLURRIES COULD OCCUR WITH...OR IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE 
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS EARLY IN THE MORNING. 
OTHERWISE...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE 
REGION...SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE SAT MORNING INTO 
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MIXING DEPTH SHOULD DEEPEN TO BETWEEN 
875-850 MB...OR PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER...ALLOWING FOR MAX TEMPS TO 
REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN VALLEYS...WITH GENERALLY 50S 
ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE CATSKILLS AND ACROSS WESTERN 
NEW ENGLAND...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER MAXES ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MTNS...WHERE ONLY 
40S ARE EXPECTED DUE TO PERSISTENT COOL AIR ADVECTION.

SAT NT-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS. 
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL SHOULD ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO FALL 
INTO THE CHILLY 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST AREAS SAT NT/SUN AM...WITH 
PERHAPS SOME TEENS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS. A 
QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPS IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...AS DEEP MIXING AND 
SOME LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALLOWS MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 
LOWER/MID 60S IN MOST VALLEY AREAS...WITH 50S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. 
SOME PATCHY HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS COULD REACH NW AREAS BY LATE 
SUNDAY.

SUN NT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ROTATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE 
REGION MAY ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS OF RAIN 
IN VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE AT 
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE 
STRENGTH...EXACT PATH...AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH THIS 
DISTURBANCE...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO ONLY THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. MIN 
TEMPS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN SAT NT DUE TO SOME CLOUDS AND A 
BREEZE...WITH MAINLY 30S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY IN MOST AREAS ON MONDAY AND 
MONDAY NIGHT WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS NORTH AS FA WILL BE 
IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS MAINE AND A 
COLD FRONT BACK ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. THE COLD FRONT 
WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION ON TUESDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE 
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. THUS 
MOST OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK WET WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED 
SHOWERS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY OFF 
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT 
LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACRS 
THE FA SO WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY 
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ON OUR DOOR STEP SO EXPECT DIMINISHING 
WINDS AND A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
  
HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S 
NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTHEAST. MONDAY NIGHT AND 
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 30S 
NORTHWEST TO THE MID 40S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE 
FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 60 SOUTHEAST. LOWS WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO AROUND 40 SOUTHEAST AND 
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 60S 
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS A WEAK COLD 
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...ANY LINGERING LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AT KPOU HAVE ERODED 
AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT ALL TAF SITES. SOUTHERLY WINDS 
WILL BE AROUND 5-10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS 
ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE 
WEST AND SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE LIMITED 
MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT ALTHOUGH A PASSING SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE 
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH AT KGFL FROM 06Z TO 
12Z. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE...ENOUGH 
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PRODUCE A 
SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS DECK IN THE 2-3 KFT RANGE....ALTHOUGH 
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MVFR CEILINGS AT THIS 
TIME. ANY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY ERODE BY 15Z AS HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

WINDS WILL TREND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS TONIGHT BEFORE 
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...AND GUSTY AT 
TIMES...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RH OF AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH BY LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD GUST INTO THE 20-25 MPH RANGE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5-15 MPH
TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT INTO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND INCREASE
TO 15-25 MPH.

THE RH IS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE IN
VALLEYS...AND 35-50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL RECOVER INTO THE 75-85 PERCENT RANGE
TONIGHT...THEN FALL TO 20-30 PERCENT FOR SAT AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT...WITH LIQUID EQUIVALENT
AMTS REMAINING UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER IS AT MAJOR FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED. 
BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW 
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT 
FALLS BELOW FLOOD STAGE. 

OVERALL LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT 
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/JPV
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL/LFM







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