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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 230204
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1004 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF 
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD 
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS 
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN 
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE 
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. 
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
JUST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS HEADING THROUGH THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...THAT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AROUND THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
ENERGY...AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS COULD INCREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ADJUSTING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE DECREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE
NEAR TERM...AND THE POTENTIAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD SUNRISE.
SOME OTHER VERY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREV AFD DESCRIBES FEATURES IN MORE DETAIL AND IS BELOW...

AFTER THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BAND OF SHOWERS PASSES THROUGH...THERE 
SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE PRECIP FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT 
HOURS...OUTSIDE OF PERHAPS SOME DEVELOPING LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED 
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. 
HOWEVER...AFTER AROUND 3 OR 4 AM...A POTENT VORT 
MAX/SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES 
REGION...WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN PA/SOUTHERN NYS...AND THEN ACROSS 
SE NYS AROUND DAYBREAK. IMMEDIATELY NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THIS 
FEATURE...WE EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE ONCE 
AGAIN. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS 
FEATURE...ESP REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH OR SOUTH IT TRACKS. 
HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT IT SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 
90...WILL INCLUDE INCREASING POPS TOWARD THE LIKELY RANGE FROM THE 
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD TOWARD DAYBREAK. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A 
PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN OR SHOWERS OCCURS AROUND THE NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE...AND ALTHOUGH A VERY LOW 
PROBABILITY...CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS OR PERHAPS 
EMBEDDED THUNDER IN ISOLATED AREAS.

AS FOR TEMPS...HAVE SIDED ON THE MILDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN THE 
PROSPECTS FOR AT LEAST SOME CLOUDS...AND A BIT OF WIND DEVELOPING 
OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST MINS IN THE 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER 30S 
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL PASS SOMEWHERE 
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION. DEFORMATION ON 
THE NORTHERN/NW SIDE SHOULD FAVOR RAIN AND/OR SHOWERS THROUGH THE 
MORNING HOURS...ESP FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS TO THE S AND 
E. AS THIS FEATURE PULLS FARTHER E...WE EXPECT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF 
RAIN SHOWERS TO DECREASE LATER IN THE MORNING INTO THE 
AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESP ACROSS 
SOUTHERN VT. SOME SNOW MAY BE MIXED IN AT TIMES ACROSS HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY 
CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREDOMINATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL PASSES 
THROUGH. IN ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN 
AS THE SFC LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS THE 
BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT 
SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH 40-45 MPH AT TIMES...ESP WITHIN CLOSE 
PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. 
AS FOR MAX TEMPS...EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPS THAN RECENT 
DAYS...MAINLY REACHING THE MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS 
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS MAY ONLY 
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S.

WED NT-THU NT...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS MAY 
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT WED EVE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT 
CLEARING SKIES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT BRISK...SO ALTHOUGH A 
CHILLY AIR MASS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH...MOST AREAS SHOULD NOT 
UNDERGO THE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR WED NT. EXPECT MOST MINS TO 
FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER 20S 
ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ON THU...A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE 
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AS THE SFC LOW IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ONLY 
SLOWLY PULLS AWAY. IN ADDITION...DEEPER MIXING IS EXPECTED FOR THU 
AFTERNOON. SO...STILL EXPECT RATHER GUSTY WINDS...ESP IN THE 
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 30-40 
MPH...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MORE 
SUNSHINE/DEEPER MIXING SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S 
TO LOWER 60S IN MOST VALLEYS...WITH MAINLY UPPER 40S TO MID 50S 
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EVEN MILDER MAX TEMPS 
COULD OCCUR IN SOME VALLEY AREAS. THEN FOR THU NT...CLEAR SKIES AND 
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL RATHER 
QUICKLY...BEFORE LEVELING OFF LATER AT NIGHT AS SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL 
CLOUDS ARRIVE. EXPECT MINS TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND 30S IN MOST 
AREAS.

FRI-FRI NT...THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES...BUT 
LOOKS RATHER MOISTURE STARVED...AND WEAK. AT THIS TIME...WILL 
INDICATE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR FRI AFTN...AND CHC POPS FRI 
NT...FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. MAX TEMPS ON FRI SHOULD REACH THE 
LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS AND 55-60 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH FRI 
NT MINS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN VALLEYS...AND MID/UPPER 
3OS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRACK THROUGH THE REGION 
SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. WITH THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED 
SHOWERS...HIGHS SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 
60S...WITH 50S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. 

THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN SOURCES OF GUIDANCE/ENSEMBLES AS TO 
THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF UPPER ENERGY LATER SATURDAY THROUGH 
SUNDAY...BUT THERE IS A CONSENSUS THAT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER 
WEATHER SHOULD BUILD EAST INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  THERE 
IS...HOWEVER...QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AS TO THE POSITION AND 
AMPLITUDE OF RIDGING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BETWEEN THE 
DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL U.S. 
THE SPECIFICS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER 
TEMPERATURES CAN BUILD NORTH INTO OUR REGION OR NOT...WHICH WILL 
DETERMINE IF WE HAVE HIGHS IN THE 50S...OR HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 60S.
 
FOR NOW SUGGESTING COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 
LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY CLOUDINESS WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE 
UPPER LOW MOVING OUT A BIT SLOWER. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AGAIN IN 
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH SOME 40S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY 
TUESDAY...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LOW IN THE 
MIDWEST TO OH VALLEY AND BETTER RIDGING OVER OUR REGION.  THERE 
COULD BE A LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION LATER 
TUESDAY BUT AGAIN...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THE FINE 
DETAILS OF TIMING OF WARM ADVECTION...CLOUDS AND ADVANCING 
PRECIPITATION. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
WEST ARE MOVING EAST AND COULD AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. THE WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY SHOULD TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN LIGHT WEST WINDS BELOW 10 KT. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAIN HAVE REMAINED MAINLY
VFR...WITH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. KEEPING PREDOMINANT
CONDITIONS VFR SINCE UPSTREAM CONDITIONS DO NOT INDICATE
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DROPPING OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH TOMORROW...SO KEEPING VCSH THROUHG THE TAF
PERIOD ENDING 00Z TOMORROW.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY AT 10 KT OR LESS. AFTER THE FRONT THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WEST OR NORTHWEST AT THE SAME SPEEDS...THEN THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 35-45 MPH LIKELY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT...AND OFF 
THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY WHILE INTENSIFYING. A COLD 
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS 
EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OF RAIN IN 
VALLEYS...AND SOME RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS WILL BE 
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH A RETURN TO BLUSTERY CONDITIONS. 
FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.

STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...AT 25-35 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING
40-45 MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 15-25 MPH WED
NT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TO 25-35 MPH LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 80-100 PERCENT TONIGHT...WITH SOME
SHOWERS EXPECTED. THE RH WILL THEN FALL TO 35-45 PERCENT IN
VALLEYS...AND 45-65 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WED
AFTERNOON. THE RH WILL THEN RECOVER TO 65-80 PERCENT WED
NT...BEFORE FALLING INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE FOR THU AFTN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE 
DAYS. 

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. 

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/KL
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL







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