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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 021734
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1234 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS TAKING
SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO TO CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW
SHOWERS. THESE ARE BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE
HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL. AS A RESULT...A FEW ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A FRESH COATING OF SNOW
POSSIBLE IN HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. MOST VALLEY AREAS WILL BE DRY WITH
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND A PASSING FLURRY IN SPOTS.

MOST OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE DONE BY THE AFTN...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST 3KM HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREEN
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE AN INSTABILITY-FORCED SNOW SHOWER THIS AFTN IN
SPOTS THANKS TO STRENGTHENING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE.

WITH THIS STRONG CAA ONGOING...WINDS BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY FROM
THE NORTHWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
THE WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING...AND HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE 30S IN MANY AREAS...WITH 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS
COULD GUSTS OVER 30 MPH...ESP FOR THE CAPITAL REGION...BERKSHIRES...AND
OTHER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
TREND TO CALM BY DAYBREAK. THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKY SHOULD SUPPORT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS BUT BELOW ZERO IN NORTHERN AREAS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
INCREASING AND THICKENING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...LIGHT SNOW SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COMMUTE. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30.

PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE STEADY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM LAYER
ALOFT TRACKS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE REGION. SO...AFTER ABOUT 1-4
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION THROUGH A PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY TO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. PRECIPITATION MAY REMAIN MAINLY SNOW AND SLEET IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND NORTHERN SARATOGA REGION.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS...AND IN
SOME CASES JUST A TRACE...BUT SOME AREAS WHERE SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURS MAYBE JUST OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR 4 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW AND HOW FAR NORTH ANY FREEZING RAIN CAN GET. SO...
NO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES YET...BUT MORE DETAILS WILL BECOME
CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND SOME HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AS
THIS EVENT DRAWS NEARER. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN RISE A FEW DEGREES TOWARD DAYBREAK.
 
STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT TRACKS EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE REGION. KEEPING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THE LOW
LEVEL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS
AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP MIXING AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH
THE MID TO UPPER UPPER 30S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO LOWER TO MID 40S
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...DEPENDING ON WHETHER VERY COLD FROZEN GROUND
LIMITS SURFACE WARMING.

A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY TRACKS OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS AND FORCING
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT. THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COULD EXTEND
THROUGH THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. LOTS
OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL TRAILING SYSTEM. SO
PUTTING HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW IN SOUTHERN AREAS...AND GENERAL
CHANCES FOR SNOW IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AS THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GIVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS A BIT MORE NORTH...BUT AGAIN...
THERE IS LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AND DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
GET CLEARER LATER TODAY AND TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIODS STARTS OUT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. A WAVE ALONG THE 
FRONT COULD POTENTIALLY SPREAD SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS AT LEAST THE 
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GFS/ECMWF/GGEM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY 
NORTHWARD WITH QPF SO WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. ALSO PLUME 
DIAGRAM FOR ALB FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL MEMBERS WITH 
AROUND 0.25 INCH QPF AMOUNTS...SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY. 
DETERMINISTIC QPF LOOKS RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...BUT HEAVIER 
PRECIP IS FORECAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. IF THE UPSTREAM 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES DEEPER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY 
FORECAST...THE FRONT/WAVE COULD SPREAD FARTHER NORTH INTO OUR AREA. 
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. 

BY LATE THURSDAY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXITING THE EASTERN 
SEABOARD...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT 
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE 
LOOKS TO QUICKLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN VERY 
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH 
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND AS A W-SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP. THERE 
COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY 
INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. AFTER A COLD 
DAY FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR 
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
REGION...THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AROUND.
MOST OF THESE WILL BE LOCATED OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...SO EXPECT
LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FOR VSBYS/CIGS AT THE VALLEY TERMINALS...WITH
PERHAPS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KPSF OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...BKN-OVC CIGS OF 3500-5000 FT WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS. NW WINDS OF 10-20
KTS WILL GUSTS 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF. WINDS WILL
START TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING.

OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BECOME NEARLY CALM TOWARDS MIDNIGHT -
2AM. ALSO...SKIES WILL BECOME NEARLY CLEAR AS WELL FOR ALL SITES.

SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY MORNING...AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE AREA. SKIES WILL
BECOME BKN-OVC BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP ARRIVING
LATER IN THE DAY IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

OUTLOOK...

TUE PM: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA.
WED NT- THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHRA. 
FRI-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY TODAY...
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...
AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND 
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO 
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO 
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...NAS



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