Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Albany, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KALY 152324
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
724 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS 
IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER THAN 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. A 
GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND 
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA NOW...AND WHATEVER MIX IS
OCCURRING IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BY 9 PM. JUST
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS BUT LENGTH OF PERIOD OF SNOW AND SNOW
AMOUNTS STILL GENERALLY LOOK IN THE BALL PARK FOR ALL AREAS.

BASED ON THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW...AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN
THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES AT 1 TO 4
INCHES...WITH VALLEY AREAS TO THE EAST PROBABLY SEEING DUSTINGS AS
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND RELATIVELY WARM GROUND LIMITS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
IN VALLEYS. ALSO...THE SNOW IS TIMED MAINLY AFTER DARK WHEN THE
SNOW CAN ACCUMULATE BEST. IT WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW...BUT
AGAIN...ENOUGH FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ON
GRASSY AREAS. SPECIAL WEATHER STATMENTS ARE BEING ISSUED FOR
LOCALIZED BRIEF HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW.  WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY ALL NIGHT...AND BASED ON UPSTREAM CONDITIONS...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S...SOME TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BREEZY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN...BUT PROSPECTS FOR QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE LOOKS GOOD.
STRONG SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER TO MID
40S...BUT 30S IN HIGHER TERRAIN. 

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S...WITH TEENS IN NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION. THERE SHOULD BE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR AT NIGHT...OTHER THAN SOME PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS
FROM TIME TO TIME.

HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 IN NORTHERN AREAS TO
LOWER TO MID 50S IN MOST OTHER AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF DRY IN BETWEEN FAST-MOVING SYSTEMS MARKS THE EXTENDED 
PERIOD.  SHOWERS MOVE IN WITH A COLD FRONT HEADING INTO THE 
WEEKEND...BEING CONFINED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY TO 
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.  THIS 
WILL BE A WEAKER COLD FRONT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TEMPERATURES 
WILL GET DOWN TO FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND 
GREENS...TO THE UPPER 30S DOWN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS.  THIS 
WILL RESULT IN A QUICK MIX-OVER OR CHANGEOVER TO SNOW APPROACHING 
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST.  

EARLY DAY HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S IN THE 
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY 
BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 
WILL HELP SUPPRESS A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY 
NIGHT...WITH LOW READINGS FROM THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SATURDAY 
NIGHT...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS COULD TURN ANY LINGERING 
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE 
SARATOGA REGION BACK TO A MIX OR SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE ALL IS ENDED BY 
DAYBREAK.

SUNDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S IN 
THE GREENS AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES DOWN THE 
HUDSON VALLEY.  THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 
MORE OF THE SAME FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.  THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE 
DOMINATING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST SHIFTS EAST...AND A WEAK 
LOW BRINGS IN THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH 
IT IS EVEN LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN THE ONE BEFORE IT.  THIS WILL LIKELY 
BE AN ALL-RAIN EVENT AS TEMPERATURES EVERYWHERE ARE EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WITH A WARM FRONT EVOLVING AND LIFTING NORTH 
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 
LOWER 60S WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD BRINGING MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS TO ALL THE TAF SITES. VFR
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY 06Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING MODERATE TO 
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. 
PREDOMINATELY MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE 
SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR AT KPSF.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 12-18 KNOTS 
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES 
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE 21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO 
THE NORTHWEST BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 
KNOTS. 

THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO DRAG DRAMATICALLY COLDER AIR INTO THE 
REGION IN ITS WAKE...AS TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOW AND 
MID 30S BY 00Z. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD REMAIN 
RAIN...THERE MAY BE A LIGHT MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET AROUND 
00Z...BUT EXPECT THIS TRANSITION TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z AT THIS TIME.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BY 00Z THE TAF SITES WILL BE TRANSITIONING 
TO A SNOW/SLEET/RAIN MIX AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL BEFORE 
BECOMING ALL SNOW BY 03Z. THERE WILL NOT BE AS MUCH MOISTURE BEHIND 
THE FRONT SO HAVE MENTIONED JUST -SHSN IN THE TAFS WITH A COATING TO 
PERHAPS AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND 
KPSF.

SKIES WILL RAPIDLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z AND BECOME SKC 
BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. 
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT 
HOURS...AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS...BEFORE INCREASING 
SLIGHTLY TO END THE TAF PERIOD AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 
KNOTS. 

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COLD AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE SUN WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE.

ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND
BERKSHIRES TONIGHT. 

RH VALUES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 60 PERCENT AND 90 PERCENT ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS TONIGHT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH.

SUNSHINE RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A BRISK WEST WIND 10 TO
20 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL TO THE 25 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY 
MORNING FOR THE ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA 
REGION CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE 
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES.

WIDESPREAD RAIN OF A HALF INCH TO INCH AND A HALF ALONG WITH SNOW
MELT HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
ALONG SOME RIVER POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AS SOME PLACES COULD REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT RIVERBANK.
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF COULD OCCUR INTO THE WALLOOMSAC AND HOOSIC
RIVERS WITH WATER RISES APPROACHING FLOOD STAGE IN SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

AS COLDER AIR POURS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...RAIN WILL TURN TO
SNOW ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...THE PRECIPITATION
COULD EVEN END AS SNOW SHOWERS WITH A COATING IN PLACES.

THIS COLDER AIR WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE 
OVERNIGHT...THUS SLOWING DOWN THE RUNOFF. HOWEVER...LARGE STEM 
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND NOT CREST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-
     050-053-054-082>084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...VTK
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy