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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 181119
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
619 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD 
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE 
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING 
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE 
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA IS BECOMING VERTICALLY 
STACKED AND WILL ONLY DEEPEN A BIT MORE THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM 
WILL BEGIN TO FILL THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD 
TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND 
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF 
THE LOW. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO UPSLOPE 
SNOW INTO THE TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY 
WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST 
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE 
LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD 
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN 
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE 
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS 
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE'LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS 
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING 
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS 
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT 
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE 
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH 
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN 
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD 
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH 
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.  

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF 
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY 
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE 
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR 
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER 
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE 
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION 
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z 
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT 
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW 
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP 
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.  
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF 
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF 
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG 
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS 
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE 
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE 
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS 
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW 
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS 
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING 
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING...ESP IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...SUCH AS AROUND KPSF.

A STEADY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
KPSF...ALLOWING FOR IFR CONDITIONS FOR LOW VISIBILITY TO BE IN
PLACE THERE THROUGH 14Z-15Z. ELSEWHERE...THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SNOW SHOWER AROUND KGFL/KALB/KPOU THROUGH MID MORNING. FLYING
CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY REMAIN MVFR DUE TO CIGS AT KALB...BUT
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MORNING HOURS FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPOU...AS ANY SNOW SHOWERS WON/T BE MUCH MORE THAN A
FLURRY.

FOR MID MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...THERE WILL STILL BE A LOT OF
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY....WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT
3500-5000 FT. SOME MVFR CLOUDS MAY MAKE A RETURN FOR TONIGHT FOR
ALL SITES WITH CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND 2 KFT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM...GOOD MIXING IN
PLACE WILL PROMOTE W-NW WINDS OF AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS...ESP FOR KALB/KPSF...WHERE GUST TO NEAR 25 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT FOR
TONIGHT...BUT STILL AVERAGE AROUND 5-10 KTS FROM A W-NW DIRECTION.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA







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