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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 190438
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1238 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO 
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE 
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA. 
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON 
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES 
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW 
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO 
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CWFA PER THE 11U-3.9U IMAGERY AND METARS. THESE CLOUDS ARE HAVING
AN IMPACT TO THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES AS OBS ARE RUNNING A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECASTS. THESE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL COLD FRONT CENTER AROUND H850 WHERE
BAROCLINICITY IS RATHER TIGHT. PER THE RAP13...EXPECTATIONS ARE
FOR A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND TRACKING
SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG WITH THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. FOR
THIS UPDATE...DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER INITIALLY WITH IMPROVEMENTS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT.  

OTHERWISE...FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES REMAIN. WILL LEAVE CURRENT HEADLINES AS IS...AND WILL NOT EXPAND
ANY FARTHER SOUTH SINCE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST JUST TO OUR NORTH
WHICH WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE TO PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS...ALONG WITH A SCT-BKN CLOUDS WELL INTO
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM
UPPER 20S IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD CT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AS HIGH 
PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. AFTER A COOL 
START...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY BUT WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES 
BELOW NORMAL. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT 
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN MILDER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO THURSDAY 
NIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. 

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY 
NIGHT...AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOME RIDGING 
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COASTLINE. WITH LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING AND 
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC...SOUTHERLY FLOW 
WILL STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND 
MILDER TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHY WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS 
AROUND ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL TEMPER THE WARMING SOMEWHAT. STILL 
HIGHS SHOULD MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE 
MILD WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PATCHY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY 
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN 
ADIRONDACKS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING 
EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY 
AFTN/EVE...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL TROFINESS LINGERING OVER THE AREA 
THROUGH TUESDAY. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST ACROSS ALMOST THE 
ENTIRE REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SUNDAY 
AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. POPS DECREASE TO ONLY CHANCE LEVELS LATE 
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF CHANCE POPS CONTINUING ACROSS 
NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY THRU TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROFS 
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF POSITION...BUT MAINLY DRY 
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. 

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH 
PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA WITH FAIR BUT 
COOL WEATHER.

EXCEPT FOR SUNDAY WHEN TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN 
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL 
FEATURE MAINLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 
60S AND 70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS 
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. LOWS 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...AND A LITTLE 
COOLER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. HIGHS 
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUDS ARE DECREASING AS THE COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
EXITING THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT TO NEAR CALM...AND
THERE COULD BE SOME INTERVALS OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS AT KGFL AND
KPSF BETWEEN 06Z-12Z WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ENDING 00Z SATURDAY.

LIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 6 KT OR LESS SHOULD CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...THEN BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO 
THIS EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE 
FRONT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA. 
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND ON 
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AS THE HIGH MOVES 
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW 
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK TO NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO 
SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 80 TO 100 PERCENT 
TONIGHT...THEN DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 25 AND 40 PERCENT 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED 
TO BE AROUND 90 TO 100 PERCENT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS. WINDS ON 
FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 
MPH. WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH DRY 
CONDITIONS. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ON SUNDAY...AS A COLD 
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. GENERALLY ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF 
INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HAVE LITTLE TO 
NO IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVER LEVELS.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ041-043-
     082>084.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-042.
MA...NONE.
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV


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