Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Albany, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KALY 250837
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
437 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS 
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH 
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME 
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY 
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW 
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 437 AM EDT...SFC ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
A WEAK PRE FRONTAL THERMAL TROUGH OR SFC WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A STRONG H250 JET STREAK OF 125-150 KTS WILL
APPROACH WRN NY BY THE EARLY EVENING. THE FCST AREA WILL BE NEAR
THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OR CYCLONIC EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET
STREAK. THE BEST QG LIFT FOR SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION FOR SCT-
NUMEROUS SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS MOST OF THE REGION
BTWN 00Z-06Z.

TEMPS WILL REBOUND CLOSER TO SEASONABLE LEVELS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WITH SOME SUNSHINE AFTER THE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BURNS OFF.
H850 TEMPS OF +4C TO +7C WITH DECENT MIXING AND SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH U50S TO M60S IN THE VALLEYS. THE
M60S WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND U40S TO M50S
OVER THE MTNS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.   

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE BEST CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IMPACTS THE FCST AREA WITH ENOUGH QG LIFT GENERATED
FOR ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND NUMEROUS
SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS/WRN MOHAWK VALLEY AS SOME LAKE MOISTURE
IS UTILIZED. AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED...THE LOW AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SMALL AMOUNTS
OF INSTABILITY /100-300 J/KG/. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 6.5-7.5C/KM RANGE ON THE NAM/GFS. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST
WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GENERAL THUNDER FCST BY SPC IN THE NEW DAY
1. THE BEST JET DYNAMICS SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH SOME U30S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN GREENS
AND ERN CATSKILLS.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DRIFT ACROSS
THE REGION. BY 18Z SUN...THE CLOSED H500 CIRCULATION WILL BE NEAR
NRN ME AND NEW BRUNSWICK. INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND DOWNWIND OF LAKE
ONTARIO. A STRONG COLD ADVECTION REGIME WILL IMPACT ERN NY AND
WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS. DECENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL FAVOR BRISK
CONDITIONS WITH W TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS IN
THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M50S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M40S
TO NEAR 50F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE WINDS WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT...SINCE A NOTICEABLE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...AND LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF NEW BRUNSWICK TOWARDS
LABRADOR. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT WEST OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY IN THE 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME U30S TO L40S IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT RIVER VALLEY.

MON-MON NIGHT...MODERATING TREND FOR TEMPS AS SFC HIGH RIDGES IN
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND H500 ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM
ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OPEN THE WEEK IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
H850 TEMPS SURGE BACK TO +6C TO +11C BY 00Z/TUE ACCORDING TO THE
GFS WITH TEMPS TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL BY TUE. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE MON NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS
LATE. LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U30S OVER SRN VT...THE
BERKSHIRES...SRN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE ERN CATSKILLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR 
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...BUT BECOMING UNSETTLED BY MIDWEEK WITH 
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE 
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD 
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER 
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF 
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP 
ACROSS THE REGION TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE 
NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
FORECAST AREA AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE 
MID-HUDSON VALLEY TO REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING 
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF 
THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR A 
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY 
RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE 
IN THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE INDICATED CHANCE POPS 
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

OUTSIDE OF TUESDAY...IN WHICH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 
60S TO NEAR 70...HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL 
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S...BEFORE TRENDING COOLER 
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOW 
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT 
ALSO TREND COOLER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK RANGING FROM THE MID 30S 
TO LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TOUGH FORECAST THIS MORNING. HAVE HAD VARIABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO  
RADIATIONAL FOG AND SOME STRATUS. WINDS ARE ALSO VARIABLE ACROSS THE 
AREA. A BATCH OF CIRRUS CLOUDS HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE 
AREA. ALSO 11-3.9 MICRONS SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOME 
STRATUS HAS FORMED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE 
MOHAWK VALLEY AND ACROSS A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS 
INTO THE BERKSHIRES. HAVE ADDRESSED CONCERNS WITH TEMPO GROUPS IN 
TAFS. AFTER SUNRISE ANY FOG AND STRATUS WILL BURN OFF AND LIFT. 

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS 
LOWERING IN THE EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE 
WEST. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SYSTEM WARM SECTOR BY THIS 
EVENING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WITH 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT OF 
SHOWERS WITH VCSH.  

WINDS ARE CALM TO LIGHT WITH DIRECTION AT THE TAF SITES DRIVEN BY 
LOCAL EFFECTS. SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS DEVELOP AFTER 12Z WITH A SHIFT 
MORE TO THE SOUTH AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING. THEN THE WINDS WILL 
SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST WITH PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASE 
IN SPEED.     

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT-WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 DAYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS 
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH 
FROM THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME 
SCATTERED SHOWERS.  THE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY 
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH BRISK AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN NEW 
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WEST TO NORTHWEST OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. 

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 70 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING TO 50 TO 70
PERCENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 

RIVERS FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAINLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS.

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA/IRL 
AVIATION...IAA 
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA







National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy