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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 271736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEEDED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
EXCEPT TO LOWER RAIN PROBABILITIES IN SOME AREAS AND SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE SUNSHINE
IN SOUTHERN AREAS. 12Z AREA SOUNDINGS SHOW RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION...BUT BASED ON TRENDS AND THE CONVECTION
THAT EXITED OUR REGION THROUGH THE MORNING...NO REAL TRIGGER TO
INITIATE NEW CONVECTION. ALSO...DRYING ALOFT...SEEN IN UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS PROBABLY ACTING TO CAP CONVECTION TO SOME DEGREE.

STILL...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY COULD STRENGTHEN AS WE APPROACH THE MAXIMUM
HEATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME BROAD CONVERGENCE
SEEN IN THE SURFACE WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE REGION IN MESOSCALE
ANALYSES BUT OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM THE CONVECTION THIS
MORNING ARE DIFFICULT TO DETECT. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND BASED ON INSTABILITY...COULD
REACH SEVERE LEVELS...SO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS TRACKING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
TODAY...AND WILL NOT IMPACT EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT TRACK INTO THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. HAVE INDICATED
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF FA WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FA. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT ESPECIALLY BTWN 04Z
AND 06Z. THE INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE AS EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON THE LARGE SCALE 500HPA CUT OFF OVER QB...WITH FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN PLACE. LAST AND MOST POWERFUL JET MAX/SHORT WV ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROF AND MVS INTO NY AND NEW ENG MON MRNG. IT
INTERACTS WITH SFC CDFNT AND RATHER SIG CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES OVR
FCA FOR LATE JULY. BEING SO CLOSE TO THE SFC LOW TRACK...THE
SLIGHT MDL DIF IN TRACK HAVE SOME SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WX
DIFFERENCES.

AREAS NORTH OF TRACK WILL HAVE A MORE STEADY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SCT HEAVIER SHRA AND MAYBE A TSTM...AREAS NR THE FRONT AND IN THE
WM SECTOR WILL BE MUCH MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WITH TSTMS AS MDL
CAPES IN THESE REGIONS ARE 1200-2000J/KG. ANY MID LEVEL DRYING OR
BRIEF SUNSHINE WITH THESE POWERFUL DYNAMICS COULD EASILY RAMP UP
INTENSITY OF RESPONSE.

NAM...TRACK OF UCA-GFL-BTV THE MOST NORTHERN TRACK WHICH WOULD
LEAVE MUCH OF FCA EXCEPT EXTREME NW IN WARM SECTOR...WARMER AND
MORE CONVECTIVE.

GEM---MOST SOUTHERN OF TRACKS MAINLY I95 CORRIDOR...WHICH WOULD BE
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS CONFINED TO
EXTREME SE FCA.

GFS--MID POINT WITH SFC LOW TRACK ALONG I88 CORRIDOR...THEN NE FM
ALB. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HEAVIEST RAINS THROUGH THE W MOHAWK VLY
AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH SCT SHRA AND TSTMS MAINLY NR TRAILING CDFNT
MON. THIS IS A TAD FURTHER N OF 12UTC ECMWF.

MEANWHILE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE 0.8 TO 1.8 IN OF QPF BTWN
05UTC TNGT AND 00UTC TUE, SO...FCST THINKING WILL BE A TAD S OF
GFS TRACK...WITH THE RAINS ALONG AND N OF I88 CORRIDOR AND MORE
CONVECTIVE TO ITS SOUTH. 

MON EVNG SFC LOW LFTS NE IN MAINE...ALONG WITH 500HPA SHORT WV. RAINS
END FROM SW TO NE...WITH CLEARING BY DAYBREAK TUE. IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEPARTING SFC LOW SIG WIND GRADIENT PULLS UNSEASONABLY COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO GRT PLAINS.
TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEG BLO NORMALS.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD LARGE 500HPA LOW IS CENTERED IN VICINITY
OF JAMES BAY CANADA WITH TRAILING TROF OVER E NA. FCA IS LOCATED
IN DRY SLOT TO ITS EAST FOR THE MOST PART. WE ARE ALSO IN THE
LEFT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE 300HPA JET...AND AREAS OF SUBSIDENCE.
OVER TIME THE SFC HIGH TO THE WEST ELONGATES FM GRT PLAINS TO THE
EAST GULF COAST. FLOW BCMS WEAK AT SFC.

ONLY ISSUE WILL BE DEGREE OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA
PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND OVER HIGHER TRRN...RELATED TO
500HPA SHORT WVS ROTATING AROUND CUTOFF AND PASSING ACROSS RGN.

ON GFS THIS IMPACT IS MINIMAL TILL WED AFTN AND NIGHT WHEN A SHARP
SHORT WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROF WITH INCG CLOUDS AND -SHRA.
PVS ECMWF HAS THIS IMPACT MUCH MORE MUTED. HPC GUID KEEPS IT DRY
DURING THIS PERIOD. BUT 500HPA TEMPS FALL TO -17C...AND BUT GIVEN
THE JET DYNAMICS OVER FCA...ITS WORTH CARRYING SLIGHT CHC POPS IN
AFTN/EVNG OVER HIGHER TRRN N & W OF ALB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WORD FOR THE EFP IS RETROGRADE. 

PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE 500HPA TROF STILL IN PLACE OVER E NA.
GFS/ECMWF BRING YET ANOTHER SHORT WV AROUND BASE OF TROF LATE WED
INTO THUR WITH INCR CLOUDS AND SCT -SHRA AGAIN N & W OF ALB. ITS
MORE LIKE SUFFICIENT INSTAB TO TRIGGER A SLIGHT CHC N&W OF ALB
OVER HIR TRRN WITH DIURNAL CYCLE.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN...AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS NE INTO QB...THE LAST PIECES OF ENERGY
SHIFT THE TROF WEST...CREATE A CUT OFF...THAT RETROGRADES TO THE
OHIO VLY OR MISS VLY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL.

THE ONE ITEM OF CONSENSUS WILL BE THE RIDGING OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AT ALL LEVELS...WITH 500HPA RIDGE RETROGRADING TWRD THE COAST.
WHILE THERE NOT MUCH SFC FLOW OR FEATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD...BERMUDA HIGH RETROGRESSION RESULTS IN A S-SE FLOW ALOFT AND
INCR MOISTURE...CLOUDS...TEMPS. 

OF NOTE ON GEFS PLUMES THERE'S A TENTH OR TWO OF QPF WED NT/THU ON
A FEW MEMBERS AND 3 MEMBERS WITH SOME QPF LATE SUNDAY 8/3 INTO MON
8/4...OTHERWISE ITS FLAT LINED AFTN MON EVNG ON MOST MEMBERS.

THE MAIN FEATURES OF THE PERIOD WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND TEMPERATURES...PARTLY CLOUDY SKYS...AND SCT
MAINLY AFTN OR EVNG TSTMS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

WILL POPULATE WITH HPC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DUE TO SPARSE
COVERAGE...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH IN THE TAFS.

HOWEVER..A MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND RATHER INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WILL MENTION PREVAILING RAIN AND MVFR WITH PROB30 FOR
TSRA WITH IFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. THE AREA THAT COULD
SEE GUSTY TSRA WOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH OF KALB...INCLUDING THE
KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. WILL REFINE FORECAST FURTHER WITH SUBSEQUENT
SET OF TAFS.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT...BECOMING
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM HUMID AIR MASS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO 55 TO 70 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. 

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY...LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
EVENING...AND EVOLVE INTO A WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/NAS
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







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