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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 211957
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
357 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION 
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY 
HEAVY RAIN...AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL 
LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST TOMORROW WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS 
AND COOL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND 
WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED WEST OF
THE REGION JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH A MOIST AIRMASS
IN PLACE...THERE IS PLENTY OF FORCING IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS..

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED...WHICH IS HELPING KEEP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOW.
HOWEVER...WITH PWATS ABOVE NORMAL /AROUND 1.63 INCHES FROM THIS
MORNINGS KALY SOUNDING/...DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S...AND HIGH FZL
LEVELS /FZL LEVELS AROUND 12000 FT/....THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...AS
WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL DOMINATE. THE RADAR HAS ALREADY SHOWN
SEVERAL SLOW MOVING LOW TOPPED STORMS...WITH HEAVY ECHOES LOCATED
TOWARDS THE BOTTOMS OF THE STORM...INDICATING HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS
DISORGANIZED...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING. SEE OUR HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

POPS GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN TO CHANCE FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE CORE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE BEST FORCING
STARTS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT STILL LOOKS TO
REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MIN TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO SHIFT OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
FOR THE THREAT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESP DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON FRIDAY...AS THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOUDY WITH
THE UPPER LOW NEARBY...SO TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN. MAX TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A LINGERING SPRINKLE OR SHOWER
CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT
LOOKS TO BE DRY. FINALLY...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL START TO
OCCUR...ESP BY SAT MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AS DRIER AIR
STARTS TO WORK IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE
EXPECTED...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO FALL EASILY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS 
OFFSHORE. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HIGHS 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH UPPER 70S TO 
LOWER 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST BEGINS TO APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND 
THURSDAY BUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING SHOULD STILL BE IN PLACE. 
SO...JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED AT 
THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS 
AFTERNOON...WITH A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES 
EXPECTED. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL 
BE POSSIBLE...WITH TEMPO GROUPS INDICATING PERIODS OF PRIMARILY MVFR 
AT THE TAF SITES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS WITH EVEN SOME 
IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KGFL AND KPSF. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR 
SHOWERS/STORMS APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z THIS 
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE GENERALLY 
LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY 
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO THE 
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS FLYING CONDITIONS FALL TO MVFR/IFR. AT THIS TIME 
THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR IFR IS AT KGFL AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH 
CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF IFR STRATUS AT KALB AND KPOU AFTER 06Z 
AS WELL. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE AFTER 06Z AT KGFL AND 
KALB...BUT CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AT 
KPOU AND KPSF. KEPT IFR STRATUS OUT OF KALB AND KPOU FOR THIS TAF 
ISSUANCE AS CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. MVFR 
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF 
PERIOD AFTER 12Z FRIDAY WITH A GRADUALLY DECREASING CHANCE FOR 
SHOWERS AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL TREND TOWARDS CALM BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND 
VARIABLE FRIDAY AROUND 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR
100 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AROUND TOMORROW...RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 PERCENT THROUGH
THE ENTIRE DAY...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THANKS TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE RATHER SLOW MOVING...AND WITH PWATS ABOVE NORMAL
/1.63 INCHES ON THIS MORNINGS 12Z KALY SOUNDING/...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

SOME AREAS...GENERALLY FROM AROUND AMSTERDAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SACANDAGA LAKE AND INTO WESTERN SARATOGA COUNTY...SAW TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF RAIN LAST NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...GROUND CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
RATHER DRY...DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...MOST
AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE SOME RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IF HEAVY
RAIN OCCURS OVER THOSE AREAS THAT SAW RAINFALL LAST NIGHT OR IF
RAINFALL REPEATEDLY MOVES OVER THE SAME LOCATION THIS AFTN INTO
EVENING...THEN SOME MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD CANNOT TOTALLY
BE RULED OUT...ALTHOUGH ANY POSSIBLE FLOOD ISSUES WOULD LIKELY BE
MORE OF THE POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN TYPE CONCERNS.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL END TONIGHT...AS THE BEST
FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS INTO TOMORROW...NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON MAIN STREAM RIVERS DUE TO THE
RAINFALL...NO FLOODING OF LARGER RIVERS IS EXPECTED. WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...RIVER LEVELS WILL
RECEDE AND/OR HOLD STEADY INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.


&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







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