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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 310743
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
345 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL 
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A POTENT SYSTEM WORKING OVER THE 
GREAT LAKES WILL DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER 
DISTURBANCE OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT 
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS...TURNING TO SNOW 
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM 
OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON OVER US BY 
SUNDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT...THE SKY WAS GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS OUR 
REGION. A PATCH OF STRATOCUMULUS CONTINUED TO PERSIST IN THE MID 
HUDSON VALLEY HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOWER 40S THERE. 
CLOUDS WERE MORE EXTENSIVE IN VERMONT AS WELL HOLDING TEMPERATURES 
UP CLOSER TO 40 AS WELL. MEANWHILE IT WAS GENERALLY IN THE 30S 
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITH MANY OUTLYING AT OR BELOW 
FREEZING.

THROUGH SUNRISE...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY NOT FALL ALL THAT MUCH 
MORE...WITH LOWS 35-40 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...LOWER 30S OR UPPER 
20S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT. 

FILTERED SUNSHINE WILL START THE DAY OUT TODAY...WITH A GENERAL 
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...EXCEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHERN 
VERMONT. 

THE H20 WATER LOOP DEPICTED TWO DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST 
RESPECTIVELY. THE ONE TO OUR SOUTH WAS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS OFF 
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE THE STRONG ONE WAS IRONICALLY 
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS ACROSS MICHIGAN. THE 
SECOND STORM HAD MUCH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. 

THE IMPULSE TO OUR SOUTH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM OUR 
REGION. THE OTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH. A WEAK AREA OF 
ASCENT WILL DEVELOP BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT DUE TO A DRY ATMOSPHERE 
VERY LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY. 

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND LIMITED MIXING...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A 
SHADE COOLER THAN NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS 50-55 IN THE 
VALLEYS...45-50 HIGHER TERRAIN. 

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH UNDER 10 MPH.   


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE FURTHER 
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED 
SYSTEM OFFSHORE. THE DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PWATS OVER AN INCH) LOOKS 
TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS INCREASING 
AS THE 00Z EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND THE GFS (AND ITS ALL ENSEMBLE 
MEMBERS) INDICATE A SIMILAR SCENARIO KEEPING THE OCEAN STORM AND 
MOST OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO OUR EAST.  

WHAT THIS WILL MEAN FOR US IN ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS 
TONIGHT...BUT EVEN MOST OF THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF LATE ENOUGH TO NOT 
IMPACT ALL THE TRICK OR TREATERS. IT MIGHT BE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH 
FOR A SNOW FLAKES IN THE ADIRONDACK BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE 
EXTREMELY MINOR AT THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000 
FEET AND THE PRECIPITATION LIGHT. 

SATURDAY...AS PHASING COMMENCES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST...IT WILL 
REMAIN OVERCAST WITH PERHAPS A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. AGAIN THESE 
WILL BE LIGHT AND IN MOST CASES...RAIN...WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS 
CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. 

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A POWERFUL OCEAN STORM WILL BE OFF CAPE COD. IT 
LOOKS AS IF ITS HEAVY BANDS OF PRECIPITATION (BOTH THE WARM AND COLD 
CONVEYOR BELTS AND ASSOCIATED BANDING) WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. LIGHT 
PRECIPITATION ON ITS OUTER EDGE WILL SKIM MAINLY OUR EASTERN 
TERRAIN...BUT A FEW OF THESE COULD WORK INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND 
POINTS EAST. BY THIS TIME...H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW 
ZERO EVERYWHERE AND FREEZING LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY CLOSE TO THE 
GROUND. THEREFORE...MOST OF WHAT FALL SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE 
SNOW...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF IT. A COATING TO A COUPLE OF 
INCHES IS POSSIBLE (BUT NOT CERTAIN) OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 
WHILE A DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED EVEN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS...IT 
APPEARS UNLIKELY. 

TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE 
VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. A GUSTY WIND UP TO 30 MPH WILL ADD TO 
THE CHILL. 

SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN...LOOK TO BE GONE BY AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CLOUDS LOOK TO 
GIVE WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A DOWNRIGHT 
COLD AND WINDY DAY WITH HIGHS NO BETTER THAN MID OR UPPER 40S IN THE 
VALLEYS...MID 30S TO LOWER 40S HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH GOOD 
MIXING...NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 30-35 MPH OVER THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION.

THE WIND WILL SLOWLY ABATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS 
SOUTH OF REGION...BUT NOT COMPLETELY. ASSUMING THE SKY REMAINS 
MOSTLY CLEAR (WHICH WE THINK IT WILL) TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DIVE INTO 
THE 20S ACROSS MOST AREAS...UPPER 20S VALLEYS AND LOWER TO MID 20S 
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.     


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COMING SOON. 
&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF 
TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 06Z SATURDAY. 
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR FOG CONDITIONS AT 
KGFL/KPSF FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY 
CLEAR SKIES TO START THE TAF PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING 
CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...WITH MAINLY A BKN/OVC DECK OF 4000 TO 5000 FEET 
ACROSS THE REGION MOST OF FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS 
AFTER SUNRISE...THEN EASTERLY AT 5 KTS OR LESS THEREAFTER. 

OUTLOOK... 
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. 
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. 
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. RH 
VALUES WILL GENERALLY AROUND OR GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESPECIALLY 
AT NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL 75-90 PERCENT. 

TODAY WILL START WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING 
CLOUDS. IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT 
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS. SOME OF THESE WILL 
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY REAL 
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE UP TO A 
COUPLE OF INCHES COULD COLLECT IN A FEW SPOTS. 

THE WIND WILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL 
TURN NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH LATE SATURDAY 
NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. 

ON SUNDAY...SUNSHINE RETURNS BUT IT WILL BE WINDY AND COLD WITH 
GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 30 MPH OR HIGHER. IT WILL BE COLD THAT 
DAY AS WELL. RH VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S VALLEYS...AND 40S 
MOUNTAINS.  

DRY WEATHER WILL HOLD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODERATING 
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. 

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY..BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS 
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN 
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT 
SNOW. 

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG 
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.   

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









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