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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 271438
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1038 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL BRING COOL WEATHER WITH
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION
TODAY. TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...BRINGING FAIR AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AT ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE NEXT WEEK OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING BY LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1038 AM EDT...LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...THE RESULT OF LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT. SELF DESTRUCTIVE
SUNSHINE TODAY AS WARMING HAS CAUSED CONVECTIVE CLOUDS TO COVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT REMAINS
MOSTLY SUNNY. BASED ON CLOUDS AND 12Z ALBANY SOUNDING...HAVE
LOWERED MAX TEMPERATURES ABOUT 3 DEG F ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF
THE HILL TOWNS WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S TODAY. A FALL LIKE DAY.

VAD WIND PROFILE AND 12Z SOUNDING INDICATE THAT THE WIND WILL
PICK UP FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST AT 5-15 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION.
 
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER PA AND NY WITH A CLEARING
SKY AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. SOME PATCHY VALLEY RADIATIONAL FOG
FORMATION IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. IT SHOULD BE A
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50 NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...AND GENERALLY 50-55F TO THE SOUTH...EXCEPT SOME UPPER 40S
OVER THE BERKSHIRES...AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA HGHTS RISE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS FCA IS ON S PERIPHERY
OF WESTERLIES BY SUN. AT SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS UNDER BUILDING
500 HPA RIDGE OVER E GRTLKS FRI...AND SHIFTS TO THE ATLC SEABOARD.
WHILE FRIDAY WILL BE A RATHER STRAIGHT FORWARD SUNNY WARM LATE
SUMMER DAY AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND THERE ARE A VARIETY OF
COMPLICATIONS.

FIRST SAT SFC HIGH UNDERGOES WK FRONTGEN FM I88 TO PWM...SETTING
UP A BOUNDARY / WMFNT BTWN MORE HUMID AIR ON THE COAST AND
AIRMASS INLAND. THEN THERE ARE A SERIES OF LOW AMPLITUDE 500 HPA
SHORT WVS MOVING ACROSS THE RGN....THRU ST LAWRENCE VLY SAT/SUN.
THESE INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY OVER FCA...AND RESULT IS SOME
CLOUDS AND LOW CHC POPS FOR TSTMS/-SHRA MAINLY SUN IN GFS/NAM.

MOST THE MDLS CRANK OUT 300-600 J/KG OF CAPE THIS WEEKEND. MID
LVL LAPSE RATES REACH 6-7C BOTH AFTERNOONS. THE 12UTC ECMWF/GEM/WPC
KEEP IT DRY. SOME OF THE GFS/NAM POPS MAY BE CLIMO KICKING THEM UP
A NOTCH. HWVR THERES A SIGNAL...AND THERES BEEN A SIGNAL FOR SVRL
DAYS. WILL STAY WITH SLGHT CHC/CHC POPS SAT AFTN AND SUN...OTHERWISE
IT WILL BE A WARM MOSTLY DRY LATE SUMMER WEEKEND...WITH VARYING
DEGREES OF CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGHS REACH THE LOW TO MID
80S....LOWS ARE MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S...WITH TD SLOWLY
CREEPING UP TO NR 60 BY SUNDAY. GIVEN SOME CLOUDS WILL GO CLOSE TO
SUPERBLEND TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE HEAT WILL BE ON....GFS/GEM BUILD 500HPA RIDGE FM HUD BAY INTO
THE OHIO VLY....W/590 DM HGHTS FM GRTLKS INTO NYS W/LARGE SFC
HIGH OVER THE NE. SVRL WK SHEARED 500 HPA SHORT WVS PASS ACROSS
THE RGN. THE ECMWF IS SIMILAR WITH THE RIDGE...BUT WITH A PHASED
SMALL CUT OFF KEEPING ALL THE ENERGY TOGETHER WANDERING AROUND
THE E GRTLKS DROPPING S INTO THE MID ATLC. HWVR THIS IS THE SAME
SHRT WV ORIGINATING IN THE GREAT BASIN TDY...THAT THE GFS/GEM
EJECTED THROUGH THE FCA SAT/SUN...THAT THE ECMWF BRINGS IT EAST
SVRL DAYS LATER.

THE ECMWF ISN'T AS WARM AS THE GEM/GFS DURING THE EFP...AS ECMWF
SHORT WV WOULD IMLPY SOME SORT OF SFC WMFNT SLOWING THE HOTTEST
AIRS E ADVANCE. ITS SOLUTION WOULD ALSO IMPLY MORE CLOUDS.

THE OTHER WILD CARD IS HOW DOES TC ERIKA EVOLVE. WHILE ITS DIRECT
IMPACTS ARE DOUBTFUL ANYWHERE NEAR OUR REGION...ITS PRESENCE (OR
LACK OF ) SOMEWHERE ON THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WOULD INFLUENCE
STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF 500 HPA RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.

REGARDLESS THE EFP WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY WARM WX AND BUILDING
HUMIDITY WITH MUCH ABV NORMAL TEMPS.  THIS COMBINED WITH EVEN THE
GFS WK SHEARED VORT AXISES WILL RESULT IN CHC TSTMS IN THE AFTNS.

TEMPS COULD BE ABV WPC EASILY AS THEY ARE MODULATED BY CLIMO...WHILE
THEY COULD ALSO BE LOWER IF THE 500 HPA SITUATION EVOLVES MORE
LIKE THE ECMWF. AT THIS TIME TEND TO DISCOUNT THE ECMWF CUT OFF AS
IT EITHER COMES THRU DURING THE STF...OR EFP...AND WE HAVE
ALREADY PLAYED THAT CARD IN THE STF. FCST WILL LEAN TWRD WPC.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

KPSF FORECAST TO HAVE SOME MVFR CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF A SHOWER
THROUGH ABOUT 17Z.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT-BKN CLOUD BASES ABOVE 3000 FEET
TODAY. 

THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 5-10KTS FROM THE WEST AT THE TERMINAL
SITES...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20KTS EXPECTED MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT KPSF AND KALB.

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AND THE WIND LIGHT TO CALM. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SOME FOG DEVELOPING. FOR NOW...WE CALL IT IFR FOG (2SM) STARTING AT 
06Z AT KGFL AND 08Z KSPF RESPECTIVELY. FOR NOW...JUST INTRODUCED 
MIFG (SHALLOW FOG) AT KALB AND KPOU AFTER 08Z.  

FRIDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS
ENDING MONDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL LIFT AWAY WITH SOME CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TODAY.
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ONTO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE INTO THE NEW WEEK OVER THE
NORTHEAST. A FEW WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME INCREASED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT OTHERWISE VERY WARM HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE.

THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEY WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM BY FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
MONDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
LIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WARM HUMID DRY CONDITIONS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
INTO NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE. BASIN-AVERAGE RAINFALL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER
A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...SND/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



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