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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 211115
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
615 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...
BRINGING SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH SOME LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT...AND A PERIOD OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS MORNING BASED
ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

LITTLE LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SEEN ON KOKX RADAR JUST SOUTH OF
EASTERN LONG ISLAND...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME WEAK UPPER ENERGY
TRACKING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER IMPULSE IN THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS TRACKING INTO OUR
REGION THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT SNOW HAS SPREAD INLAND INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TACONICS...
ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS SO SHALLOW AND AT SUCH LOW LEVELS...AREA
RADARS ARE NOT FULLY PICKING UP ON THE AREAL EXTENT AND INTENSITY
OF THE SNOW.

SOME GUIDANCE IS RESOLVING THESE SMALL SCALE FEATURES AND
SUGGESTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS...NW CT AND THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES.
SO...HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY IN SOME AREAS THROUGH THIS MORNING IN
THOSE AREAS...WITH PERHAPS AROUND AN INCH IN SOME PLACES BEFORE
SNOW DECREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 

SOME FLURRIES EVEN INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH CHANCES FOR BRIEF INTERVALS OF LIGHT SNOW
IN SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TACONICS AND
NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY...
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. HIGHS
AROUND 30 TO THE MID 30S...SOME 20S IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SOME
BRIEF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
WINDS...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S...SOME UPPER TEENS IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. WARM ADVECTION SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING. LIGHT
WIND FLOW THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
MIX OUT CLOUD COVER...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD HELP ANY CLEARING
TO THE SOUTH SPREAD SLOWLY NORTH...UNTIL THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST SPREAD OVER
THE REGION. STILL...WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
30S. 

SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AS
DOES WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. LOW LEVEL RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED IN SE CANADA...SO SURFACE FLOW SHOULD BE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. AGEOSTROPHIC LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST SUGGEST THAT ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS
IN THE REGION COULD HELP TEMPERATURES FALL TO WET BULB LEVELS...
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SNOW AND/OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN SOME
AREAS...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT ION THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...JUST ABOVE FREEZING
IN MUCH OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT POTENTIALLY CLOSE TO FREEZING
IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. NO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES YET...WITH
JUST CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN BUT WILL INCLUDE IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK BECAUSE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IF FREEZING RAIN
BECOMES LIKELY IN SOME AREAS AS THE EVENT NEARS.

ALL PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO ALL RAIN TUESDAY AND SLOWLY INCREASES
IN COVERAGE THROUGH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT STRENGTHEN. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 40S...BUT
AROUND 40 IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ACTIVE AND CHANGEABLE WEATHER EXPECTED FROM CHRISTMAS EVE TO 
CHRISTMAS DAY...AS A STORM STORM SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLE MULTIPLE 
HAZARDS AFFECTS THE REGION. THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT 
EXPECTED TO BE A MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS SYSTEM.

BY CHRISTMAS EVE DAY OUR REGION SHOULD BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED IN A 
WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN. A DEEP 
TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT 
LAKES...MIDWEST AND TENN VALLEY REGIONS...WITH A RIDGE AXIS 
POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM AND 
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BOTH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ALOFT WILL BE IN 
PLACE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DESPITE EXPECTED CLOUD 
COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF 
YEAR. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH 
LOWER TO MID 50S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY SOUTH AND EAST. 

SOUTHERLY WIND FIELD WILL BE INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY. 
STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS 
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW. HOW STRONG WIND SPEEDS END UP 
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF MIXING. SURGES OF 
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL HEAVY 
RAINFALL...WITH PWATS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO +4 TO +5 STDEV BY LATE 
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH SNOW MELT IN HIGHER TERRAIN 
COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING. SEE HYDRO SECTION FOR DETAILS.

THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...TRACK AND 
STRENGTH OF THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE AREA...BUT THERE IS AT LEAST 
GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THAT LOW WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST 
AND DEEPEN IN THE PROCESS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW LOOKS 
TO CROSS OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST SOMETIME EARLY CHRISTMAS 
MORNING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A BURST 
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. STEADY RAINFALL WILL TAPER OFF TO 
SCATTERED VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CHRISTMAS 
MORNING. AS THE LOW DEEPENS FURTHER ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON 
CHRISTMAS DAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS COULD BE 
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE WESTERLY FLOW WITH BETTER MIXING. HIGH TEMPS 
WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY IN THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS...WITH TEMPERATURES 
FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DEVELOPING BRISK WESTERLY WIND.

OTHER THAN A FEW UPSLOPE/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE 
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED 
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES 
WILL TURN MUCH COLDER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT WILL STILL BE 
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE 
MAY BRING SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO 
SATURDAY WITH LIGHT QPF.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

SOLID BATCH OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...WITH CIGS
GENERALLY EITHER MVFR OR VFR. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES BEFORE SUNRISE...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR
RANGE FOR ALL THE TERMINALS...WITH A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING FOR MAINLY KPSF AND POSSIBLY KPOU BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
BEST CHANCE FOR OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT HIGHER
ELEVATION SITE KPSF...WHERE A TEMPO FOR IFR IN -SN IS MENTIONED
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. AT THIS TIME ONLY FLURRIES EXPECTED AT KPOU WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. LESS MOISTURE ANTICIPATED FARTHER
NORTH AROUND KALB/KGFL...SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH AT THESE SITES.
ANY -SN WILL END BY AROUND 18Z...AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. CIGS IN MVFR/VFR RANGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD ENDING 06Z MONDAY.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY DEFINITE RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO
30.0 CHANCE OF SHRA. 
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX. 
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.75 INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH
SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING
AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS







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