000
FXUS61 KALY 190511
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH 
CLOUDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE... MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS 
AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL 
APPROACH DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASING 
THREAT FOR SHOWERS TOMORROW...WHICH WILL EXTEND INTO MOST OF THE 
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 110 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST WITH A RETURN S/SE LOW LEVEL FLOW IMPACTING ERN NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH MILDER CONDITIONS THAN LAST
NIGHT...AND INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS. SKIES ARE QUICKLY
BECOMING CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AS A BAND OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVES OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

A WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW AT 500 HPA IS MOVING
ACROSS ONTARIO. THIS DISTURBANCE...COUPLED WITH WEAK WARM
ADVECTION MAY CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF THE FCST AREA TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WHILE THE KENX RADAR
SHOWS NO ACTIVITY IN OUR AREA YET...SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT BY AROUND 6 AM. THE WINDS WERE
KEPT IN THE 5-10 MPH RANGE ESPECIALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION DUE TO
THE FUNNELING UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TO THE
MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST ON SUNDAY WITH THE GFS NOW 
FORECASTING A RAINY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THE 
OTHER MODELS STILL SHOW GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE 
REGION WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY 
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 30 
AND 40 PERCENT BY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE AT THAT LEVEL 
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND STLT TRENDS...
THE 12Z GFS RUN ALREADY SEEMS TO BE IN ERROR SO HAVE GENERALLY 
DISCOUNTED THE RAINY DAY SCENARIO. (THE GFS IS CURRENTLY FORECASTING 
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE OF PCPN TO OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART 
OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE 00Z THIS EVENING...EVEN THOUGH RADAR 
TRENDS SHOW THE PCPN REMAINING TO THE SOUTH AND ALSO MOVING FURTHER 
AWAY THIS EVENING). 

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH THE COOLEST 
TEMPS OVER THE SOUTH DUE TO MORE CLOUDINESS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL 
BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

A WARM AIR MASS WILL BE SURGING TOWARD THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY 
NIGHT...WITH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INDICATING 
DEWPOINTS RISING TO 60 OR MORE IN MANY AREAS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
WILL ALSO SUBSIDE SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE REGION DURING THAT 
TIME...THEREBY KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING MONDAY AND MONDAY 
NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST POPS GENERALLY BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT DURING 
THIS PERIOD AND ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS 
MONDAY AFTN AND EVENING DUE TO THE INCREASED INSTABILITY. HIGHS 
MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S...AND THE LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50 
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HPC GUIDANCE.  A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR REGION 
WILL BE THE FOCUS OF POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE 
WORK WEEK.  A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY 
NIGHT WILL BRING AN END TO THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS...TO PROVIDE A 
NICE START TO THE WEEKEND THAT FOLLOWS.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO BE AT ITS NORTHERNMOST EXTENT ACROSS THE STATE.  HIGHS 
WILL RANGE MAINLY FROM THE LOWER AND MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGH 
TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SOUTH AND VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 
UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.  HIGHS WEDNESDAY 
AND THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN THE 
MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.  POST 
COLD-FRONTAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 
DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE 
HUDSON VALLEY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY COOLER...WITH READINGS 
BOTTOMING OUT IN PRIMARILY THE 50S AND LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.  BY 
FRIDAY NIGHT...READINGS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER.  
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS FOR ALBANY FOR THE PERIOD ARE LOWER 70S AND 
AROUND 50...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND
OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW...AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST
OF THE GULF OF MAINE.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...BUT THEN CLOUDS
WILL START TO THICKEN AND LOWER WITH SOME MVFR STRATUS DEVELOPING
IN THE LOW LEVEL S/SE FLOW DUE TO THE RETURN FLOW FROM THE
RETREATING SFC ANTICYCLONE...AND SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION
INCREASING WELL IN ADVANCE OF A WARM FRONT. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SCT
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP FROM KPOU N/NE TO KPSF BTWN 13Z-
16Z...AND THEN TO KALB TO KGFL BTWN 16Z-20Z. CIGS WILL LOWER
INITIALLY TO 1.5-2.5 KFT AGL...AND THEN POSSIBLY AS LOW AT 1.0
KFT AGL AT KPOU LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO
INITIALLY STAY IN THE VFR RANGE...BUT LOWER TO MVFR RANGE /4-5 SM/
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S/SE AT 5-10 KTS AT KALB/KPSF
TONIGHT...AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 5 KTS OR LESS AT KGFL
AND KPOU. EXPECT THE WINDS TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST
AT 7-12 KTS BY THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY PM WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSE
TO 20 KTS AT KALB DUE TO FUNNELING UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. SLGT CHC OR CHC -SHRAS.
MON-MON NIGHT...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRAS/SLIGHT CHC -TSRAS.
TUE-THU...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRAS/-TSRAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND SOUTH 
THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON SUNDAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE 90 PERCENT OR MORE TONIGHT. RH 
VALUES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN 50 AND 70 
PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVERALL QPF ON SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW ONE TENTH OF AN INCH 
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY...MAINLY DURING THE 
AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT 
WEEK...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE DURING 
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. 

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM