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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 290520
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
120 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONG
SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER MAINE AND IS BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD BY
THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SKIES . ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE TO THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. UPDATED WINDS USING
A BLEND FROM THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY MORNING CLOUDINESS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND
SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S
TOMORROW...WITH AROUND 70 TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN. BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 50S...WITH
40S IN COLDER SPOTS.

BROAD UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM DOMINATED BY NORTHERN STREAM FLOW...SO
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY SPREADING EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY LITTLE ATMOSPHERIC MOTION ACROSS THE 
NORTHEASTERN U.S.  DURING THIS TIME...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL 
BE SITUATED ALONG THE EAST COAST.  THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT TO 
OUR REGION COUPLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INLAND WILL RESULT IN A 
STAGNANT AIR MASS OF GRADUALLY INCREASING HUMIDITY THAT WILL MEAN A 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.  
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL HAVE REACHED ONLY THE NORTHERN GREAT 
LAKES AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY MONDAY...AND THUS SHALL PROVIDE NO 
RELIEF TO OUR REGION.

THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE NOTABLE VARIATION IN THE TEMPERATURE 
PATTERN...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.  LOWS 
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF 
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN THE LOWER MID 
HUDSON VALLEY.  LOWS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 
THE LOWER 50S IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO 
THE LOWER 60S DOWN THE HUDSON AND LOWER CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS...THOUGH 
READINGS MAY HOLD UP IN THE MID 60S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY SUNDAY 
NIGHT.  NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS IN ALBANY THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST ARE 
IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH A COLD FRONT NOW EAST OF THE AREA...SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS 
THE REGION...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE REGION THANKS TO AN 
UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OVER CANADA. FLYING 
CONDITIONS ARE VFR FOR THE VALLEY TAF SITES...BUT REMAIN IFR AT KPSF 
THANKS TO LINGERING LOW STRATUS.  AS LESS HUMID AIR WORKS INTO THE 
REGION...CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT BY LATE TONIGHT...WITH 
CONDITIONS IMPROVING AT KPSF BETWEEN 09Z-12Z. W-NW WINDS WILL BE 
AROUND 5-10 KTS...WHICH WILL PREVENT ANY FOG FROM FORMING. 

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH 
JUST SCT DIURNAL FLAT CU. LIGHT WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5 
KTS. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO DISSIPATE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH 
JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WINDS BECOMING 
LIGHT TO CALM AT ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO
NEAR NORTHERN MAINE BY TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER ON TUESDAY. ON
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MAY CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 40 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALL FLOOD WARNINGS EXPIRED OR WHERE CANCELLED EARLIER.

EVEN THOUGH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE...THE REGION
WILL BE UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH A LARGE CLOSED LOW WOBBLING
OVER EASTERN CANADA THIS WEEK. PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL
ROTATE ABOUT THE LOW TRIGGERING CONVECTION WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...IAA/BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...IAA







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