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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 230854
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
455 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL 
GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AT ALL LEVELS 
OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM QUEBEC TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE 
REST OF THE WEEKEND...WITH CLEARING SKIES. FOR MONDAY AND MUCH OF 
NEXT WEEK...THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN 
SEABOARD...BRINGING WARM AND DRY SUMMER WEATHER TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TODAY/...
CURRENT RADAR AND STLT TRENDS AND MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT ANY 
CLEARING THAT OCCURS TODAY WILL NOT BEGIN UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. IN 
ADDITION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO PREVAIL ACROSS 
THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. HIGHS WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON 
HOW FAST THE CLOUDS BREAK UP...BUT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS BELIEVE 
IT IS BEST TO FORECAST CLOSER TO THE COOLER MAV TEMPS WITH HIGHS 
GENERALLY BETWEEN 70 AND 77 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM 
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO 
THE REGION DURING THIS PERIOD. SKIES WILL BECOME MAINLY CLEAR 
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND GENERALLY REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH MONDAY. 

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. 
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MON NIGHT-WED...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH AT 
LEAST EARLY WED...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN 
CONUS. EXPECT GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH WED AM. HOWEVER...AS 
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...SOME 
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN 
ADIRONDACKS LATE WED OR WED NT. A WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS 
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. EXPECT 
MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S IN VALLEYS...AND 75-80 ACROSS 
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME VALLEY AREAS COULD REACH/APPROACH 
90...SHOULD THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ANY ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/SHOWERS 
HOLD OFF. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S MON 
NT/TUE AM...THEN MAINLY INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS...AND 
55-60 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR TUE NT/WED AM.

THU-FRI...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE 
REGION SOMETIME LATE WED NT OR THU. HOWEVER...ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT 
COULD BE SLOWED ULTIMATELY DEPENDING ON ANY POTENTIAL TROPICAL 
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SW/W ATLANTIC OCEAN...WHICH COULD HELP 
AMPLIFY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS EASTERN CONUS...AND RESULT IN 
A SLOWER FRONTAL SYSTEM. WILL GENERALLY INDICATE CHC POPS FOR LATE 
WED NT INTO THU FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSUMING THE FRONT DOES 
INDEED PASS THROUGH DURING THIS TIME. WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC 
POPS INTO FRI...IN CASE THE FRONT MOVES SLOWER. TEMPS ON THU WILL BE 
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND 
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/CONVECTION. AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED MAINLY 
70S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOWER 80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. 
HOWEVER...THESE TEMPS COULD BE COOLER IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH 
FASTER AND/OR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OCCUR. ON FRI...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO 
MAINLY REMAIN IN THE 70S...WITH SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE 
ADIRONDACKS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE 60S. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD 
FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S IN VALLEYS AND 55-60 ACROSS HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS FOR WED NT/THU AM...AND 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR THU NT/FRI 
AM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR THROUGH AROUND 
14Z-16Z/SAT...MAINLY FOR CIGS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT 
OCCASIONAL DIPS INTO IFR COULD OCCUR...ESP AT KALB...THROUGH 12Z. 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST 
EARLY SAT NT.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN 
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING...WITH THE BEST CHANCE APPEARING TO BE 
ROUGHLY IN THE 10Z-15Z/SAT TIME PERIOD...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL 
IMPULSE PASSES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES. LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR 
VSBYS COULD OCCUR WITHIN ANY HEAVIER PATCHES OF DRIZZLE OR SHOWERS.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE NE TO E AT 5-10 KT FROM MID 
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE ONCE 
AGAIN AROUND AND AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 PERCENT TODAY WITH CLOUDS 
GRADUALLY BREAKING UP DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE WILL 
STILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE 
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AT 10 MPH OR LESS.

RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND 
VARIABLE WINDS. 

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL 
GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE ISOLATED TO 
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND NOT HAVE ANY ADDITIONAL 
IMPACTS ON AREA STREAM AND RIVERS. 

FROM SUNDAY AND BEYOND EXPECT DRY AND INCREASING WARM WEATHER TO 
AFFECT THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE 
BUILDS IN. 

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...KSL
AVIATION...KSL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...GJM
















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