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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 302343
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
743 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THIS WEEK WILL BE HOT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS 
THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. HIGHS MAINLY IN 80S ARE 
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME 90S ANTICIPATED UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 743 PM EDT...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM ALLOWED FOR SOME SCT RAIN SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...THESE SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH. KENX RADAR SHOWS
MOST AREAS ARE NOW RAIN FREE...AND IT LOOKS TO BE DRY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING AWAY...CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AND DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT ARE FORECAST A BIT
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM. GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED
AND THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING EASTWARD.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES TO START THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND IN THE 80S
TUESDAY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WITH MAKE FOR HUMID/MUGGY CONDITIONS.

ALBANY'S LONGEST HEAT WAVE HAS OCCURRED DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS AND FOR 
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER 
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD. 
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT 
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL 
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED. 

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST 
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE 
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS 
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP 
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN 
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.  

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE 
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS 
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING 
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR 
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN 
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS 
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS 
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT 
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY 
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW 
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT 
NO OTHER TIME FRAME. 

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE 
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT 
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER 
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ALLOWING FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

H850 TEMPS LOOK TO AVERAGE BETWEEN +16C TO +18C THE ENTIRE PERIOD. 
MOST OF THE TIME THE REGION WILL BE CAPPED SO EVEN WITH A SUFFICIENT 
AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SURFACE INSTABILITY...IT WILL 
BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO BE REALIZED. 

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH LOOK TO CREST 
AROUND 90 IN THE VALLEYS EACH DAY...MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE 
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S. AT THIS 
POINT...DEWPOINTS LOOK TO ALSO BE IN THE 60S WHICH WOULD KEEP 
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (WHICH IS THE WHAT THE TEMPERATURE FEELS WHEN 
COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY) BELOW 100 DEGREES.  

WE HAVE KEPT MOST DAYS COMPLETELY DRY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE 
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THURSDAY BOTH THE EUROPEAN (ECWMF) AND GFS 
INDICATED A VERY WEAK COLD FRONT (OR JUST A SURFACE TROUGH) PASSING 
THROUGH WHICH MIGHT BREAK THE CAP AND TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR 
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY...THE GFS INDICATED SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF AN 
EASTERLY FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS 
SCENARIO COULD ADD A LITTLE MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PERHAPS 
WORKING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IT 
SHOULD BE NOTED THE ECMWF DOES NOT INDICATE THIS FEATURE ON FRIDAY 
AS IT BUILD THE HIGH CLOSER TO OUR REGION WITH REALLY NOT MUCH FLOW 
AT ALL AND PRODUCING MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION.

NOW...WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE 20 POPS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT AT 
NO OTHER TIME FRAME. 

THE SKY WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE 
DAY...MAINLY CLEAR AT NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PATCHY VALLEY FOG BUT 
DID NOT INCLUDE IT DURING THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME. 

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A DEPARTING NEARBY DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AROUND 8-10
KFT. CLOUDS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THIS DISTURBANCE
MOVES AWAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT
AT KPSF/GFL...ALTHOUGH IT WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THE CLOUDS DEPART. KALB/KPOU COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BR
AROUND SUNRISE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT
THESE SITES. WINDS WILL BE CALM OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG LOOKS TO
DISSIPATE BY AROUND 12Z.

DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL
TAF SITES WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND. SOME SCT CU MAY DEVELOP
BY AFTN...MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. S-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. 
FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECT FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. 

MOST OF THE REGION HAS NOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN OVER A
WEEK. THIS HAD LED TO THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX APPROACHING
300 IN OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES...AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO RISE
OVER THE DAYS TO COME.

WINDS DURING THE NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN CALM AT NIGHT AND 
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A FULL OR NEARLY FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED EACH OF THE NEXT 
SEVERAL NIGHTS ALLOWING FOR THE FORMATION OF DEW.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
MODERATE RANGE...40 TO 60 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED AUGUST 27
THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 29, 30
AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31... 
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953 
  
SEPTEMBER 1... 
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953 

SEPTEMBER 2... 
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953 

SEPTEMBER 3... 
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953 

SEPTEMBER 4... 
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973 

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA



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