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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 171746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL 
ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES 
REGION...TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THERE IS LIMITED 
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONT SO MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD 
REMAIN DRY. THEN A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION 
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE 
NORTHEAST CORRIDOR THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER 
EARLY INTO THE WEEKEND.  

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM EDT/... 
AS OF 125 PM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
DOWNSTREAM...AND EAST OF THE GULF MAINE. SOME FAIR WX CUMULUS
CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BASED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS SETTLING S/SE FROM JUST NORTH OF THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY... AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME CIRRUS MAY DRIFT IN
LATE THIS PM.

TEMPS LOOK MOSTLY ON TRACK...BUT STILL A TAD BELOW NORMAL WITH
M60S TO NEAR 70F IN MOST OF THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M50S TO L60S
OVER THE MTNS. 

WE MAY NEED A FREEZE WATCH FOR FRI MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN
AND WRN DACKS...WHICH WE WILL ADDRESS WITH THE UPDATE. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... 
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES FURTHER REMOVED FROM THE
REGION...THE UPSTREAM COLD FRONT WILL FURTHER ITS FORWARD PROGRESS
INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. MEANWHILE THE MAIN UPPER
SUPPORT...SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY JUST EAST OF LAKE
WINNIPEG...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT
TO THE REGION AND TOO FAR REMOVED FOR DIRECT IMPACTS. SO WE WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE DACKS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTO THE 40S.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MAINLY
CLOUD COVER. BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE
REGION AS CROSS SECTIONS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL OMEGA SUPPORTS LIFT AT
OR BELOW H700 WHERE RH VALUES ARE OVER 90 PERCENT. THIS LIFT
RAPIDLY DISSIPATES SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY SO WE WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY FOR NOW FOR THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

THURSDAY NIGHT...1025MB SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
CLEARING OUT THE SKIES AS MEAN RH VALUES DROP BACK OR BELOW 30
PERCENT ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO
FALL BACK TO AROUND 0C ACROSS THE DACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION
WITH AROUND +5C FOR THE SOUTHEAST CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND NW CT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FROST CONDITIONS ACROSS
MAINLY THE TERRAIN AND NORTH OF ALBANY WITH FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR
THE DACKS AND NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

FRIDAY...BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE AS SURFACE HIGH /1028MB/ SLIDES
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORRIDOR. WALL-TO-WALL SUNSHINE IS FORECAST
WITH A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE TERRAIN AND
LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE DURING THE LONG TERM IS LOWER THAN 
AVERAGE...PARTICULARLY REGARDING AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL 
PATTERN BY MON-TUE...AND THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF A TROUGH DIGGING 
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND ANY 
POTENTIAL SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT. 00Z/17 MODELS HANDLE 
THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC FEATURES QUITE DIFFERENTLY...WITH 
THE 00Z/17 GFS AND GEFS SUGGESTING THE TROUGH DEVELOPS WITH A MORE 
POSITIVE TILT...WITH THE SFC FRONT PASSING THROUGH SUN NT-MON...WITH 
ANY POSSIBLE SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND 
COAST...WHILE THE 00Z/17 ECMWF INDICATES A MORE NEUTRAL TILT TO THE 
EVOLVING TROUGH...WITH SFC WAVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING MUCH CLOSER 
TO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST. SO...THE GFS/GEFS WOULD FAVOR A 
ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT SUN NT/EARLY MON...WHILE THE ECMWF 
WOULD SUGGEST A SOAKING RAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MON-MON NT. AT 
THIS TIME...HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED THE GFS/GEFS MODE...AS THIS MORE 
VIGOROUS WAVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE ECMWF SEEMS TO HAVE CHANGED RATHER 
DRASTICALLY FROM RECENT MODEL RUNS.

HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS...

FRI NT-SAT NT...IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT 
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...ALLOWING FOR QUITE A BIT IN THE 
WAY OF LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...ESP SAT-SAT NT. SO WILL TREND SKY 
CONDITIONS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST AREAS. SOME SHOWERS MAY OCCUR 
SAT-SAT NT MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE A 
COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION AND SOME OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS MAY 
SQUEEZE OUT THE INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. IT ALSO COULD 
BECOME QUITE BREEZY SAT AFTERNOON...AS A LOW LEVEL JET TRANSLATES 
ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S FOR FRI NT 
WITH SOME 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS...THEN WARMING TO 
THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS SAT NT. SAT MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE MID 
60S TO LOWER 70S...WARMEST IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF 
ALBANY.

SUN-MON...WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS SUN AFTERNOON INTO SUN 
NT...THEN GRADUALLY TAPER ON MON FROM NW TO SE AS THE FRONT PASSES 
THROUGH. SHOULD THE 00Z/17 ECMWF PROVE CORRECT...THEN MON COULD BE 
MUCH WETTER...WITH A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN POSSIBLE. SUN MAX TEMPS 
SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S IN VALLEYS...AND 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS 
MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S 
IN MOST AREAS FOR SUN NT/MON AM. ON MON...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE 
FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 70S 
ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CO CT. 
HOWEVER...AGAIN...IF A STEADIER RAIN WERE TO OCCUR...MAX TEMPS COULD 
BE MUCH COOLER.

MON NT-TUE...MUCH COOLER AIR SHOULD INFILTRATE INTO THE REGION FROM 
THE N AND W. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PASSES 
THROUGH...EXPECT ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO OCCUR...MOST 
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY REGION. 
MON NT/TUE AM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH TUE 
MAX TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 60S WITHIN THE HUDSON 
VALLEY...TO THE 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH SOME OF THE 
HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS POSSIBLY ONLY REACHING THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND 
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY.

DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS HAVE 
BEEN FORECAST FOR THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF 
PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS LACKING ALONG 
THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TAF SITES...AND HAVE NOT 
FORECAST ANY PCPN OR CONDITIONS BELOW VFR AS IT MOVES THROUGH. 
HOWEVER...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY 
MORNING DUE TO FOG/STRATUS. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT 
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER TONIGHT INTO 
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR FOG IS 
LESS THAN IT WAS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT KGFL THE MID LEVEL CLOUD 
DECK WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE IN SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH 
WOULD GREATLY INHIBIT FOG FORMATION THERE. AT KALB THE CLOUDS WILL 
BEGIN TO MOVE IN AROUND 10Z...BUT SIGNIFICANT FOG AT KALB IS NOT 
EXPECTED. KPSF/KPOU HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING MVFR/IFR FOG 
SINCE CLOUDS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE 
ON THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AT 8 KTS OR LESS TODAY. LIGHT AND 
VARIABLE OR CALM TONIGHT...THEN WEST TO NORTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS ON 
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.  NO SIG WX. 
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUTSIDE OF AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR TWO THURSDAY...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND.

DAYTIME MINIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT
TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH MAXIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 75 AND
95 PERCENT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES THIS
WEEKEND...HOWEVER...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MINIMUM IMPACTS
TO THE AREA RIVER AND STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR THIS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. 

HERE ARE SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR SEPTEMBER 19TH...

ALBANY NY: 32 DEGREES IN 1959 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 39

GLENS FALLS NY: 31 DEGREES IN 1995 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 34

POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 33 DEGREES IN 1990 (RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949... 
HOWEVER DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 - JULY 2000)
 CURRENT FORECAST: 44

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/GJM
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM
CLIMATE...IAA/STAFF










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