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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 271716
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1216 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER TODAY 
INTO TOMORROW. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE 
SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES 
WILL MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE 
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SITUATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US. AT
THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

EXPECT SKIES THIS AFTERNOON TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
BASED ON THE SATELLITE PICTURE. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE IS HELPING THE SKIES TO CLEAR. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
RUN BELOW NORMAL AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF -15 TO -19 DEGREES C PERSIST.
THIS LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A FLAT AND FAST FLOW AT 500 HPA WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE CENTER OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE AREA
WILL SHIFT FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT.
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...SKIES WILL BE NEARLY CLEAR...ALONG
WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND A RATHER COLD NIGHT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO FALL BELOW
ZERO...WITH THE COLDEST AREAS IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND NEAR GLENS
FALLS FALLING TO -10 TO -15 F. WITH WINDS BEING 5 MPH OR
LESS...WIND CHILL HEADLINES WON/T BE REQUIRED. HOWEVER...IN A FEW
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS...WINDS COULD BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE 5 MPH...AND IT
WILL BE RATHER COLD...SO PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN IF ANYONE HAS
OUTDOORS PLANS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
COLD...BUT DRY...WEATHER OVER OUR AREA. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY FOR MOST AREAS WITH CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS.
THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AS
THE WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY OFF
LAKE ONTARIO. MOST OF THIS SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA OVER THE TUG HILL...BUT AN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWER IN THE
OLD FORGE AND INLET AREAS...ALONG WITH SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDS...CAN/T BE RULED OUT FOR DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SAT
EVENING.

HIGHS ON SAT LOOK A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE 20S. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN ON SAT NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL STARTING TO BE INCREASING BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD STOP TEMPS FROM GETTING AS COLD AS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS
MAINLY BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 5 ABOVE.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE MIDWEST...AND
WILL BE HEADING EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RATHER
QUICKLY THANKS TO THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE SUNDAY WILL START OFF
DRY WITH JUST SOME CLOUDS...IT LOOKS TO BECOME CLOUDY
QUICKLY...WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION
BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN NIGHT AS
THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. SNOWFALL
LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT P-TYPE WILL BE
ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS TEMPS REMAIN BELOW FREEZING
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE COLUMN. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
/00Z ECMWF...NAM...AND GFS/ AND 00Z GEFS SEEM TO SHOW ABOUT 0.20
TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. WITH TYPICAL SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS EXPECTED...MOST AREAS LOOK TO SEE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL. BEST POSSIBILITY OF 4+ INCHES LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/ADIRONDACKS...AS THE BROAD W-SW FLOW UPSLOPES THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...SO WILL BREAK OUT THESE AREAS IN THE HWO
STATEMENT...AS AN ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR THOSE AREAS. THE
CAPITAL REGION/MID HUDSON VALLEY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE LOWER END
OF THE RANGE...AS THESE EVENTS TYPICALLY SEE SOME DOWNSLOPING OFF
THE CATSKILLS DUE TO THE SW FLOW ALOFT.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. TEMPS
WON/T FALL MUCH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP IN PLACE...AND
LOWS GENERALLY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...HOWEVER NOT 
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL LIKE HAS BEEN THE CASE THIS MONTH. 

WILL START OFF THE WORK WEEK WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING AWAY 
FOR THE REGION AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA. 
THE FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE 
REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AT 
THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH WE WILL HAVE HAD A FRESH SNOWFALL THIS 
SURGE OF COLD WILL BE NOT AS BITTER AS RECENT ONES...ANTICIPATING 
LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH LIGHT WINDS.

THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY 
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...THEN QUICKLY SHIFTING OFFSHORE.  ALOFT 
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE 
WESTERN CONUS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND SHIFTS/MOVES 
EASTWARD A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS. WITH 
BROAD SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THE SYSTEM WILL HEAD TOWARD 
THE NORTHEAST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK. 
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN TO 
OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID 
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE TIMING AND 
EXACT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM 
ENERGY WILL COME IN PLAY. HOWEVER INDICATIONS ARE THE SURFACE LOW 
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PLACING THE REGION ON THE WARM SIDE. 
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT AS 
HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. 

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO NORMAL LEVELS...IN
THE LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S. INITIALLY IT SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW HOWEVER AS WARMER AIR WORKS IN SO THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHOULD OCCUR. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL WILL
OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ALOFT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHILE AT THE SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN
FROM THE WEST. CLOUD COVER WILL BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MID LEVEL DECK WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. WITH LOWER
LEVEL CLOUDS CLEARING/DISSIPATING BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR AT KALB AND POSSIBLY KPSF
THIS MORNING.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON 
THEN DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
 
OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. 
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY. 
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. 
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



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