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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 260929
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
429 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW TRACKING NORTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST WILL 
BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY 
IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED 
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK...WITH THE 
HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE SNOW IS 
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME LINGERING 
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

...WINTER STORM WARNING EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION...AND EASTERN/CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY REGION...

AS OF 430 AM EST...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION...AS A LOWER CLOUD DECK SEEPS EASTWARD
INTO THE CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES...AND POINTS N AND W.

TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
MOST VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY S AND E...AND LOWER/MID 30S TO THE N
AND W. DEWPOINTS ARE MAINLY IN THE MID/UPPER 20S.

LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST...WITH THE BEST PRESSURE FALLS SUGGESTING IT WILL TRACK
NORTH/NORTHEAST TOWARD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...NEAR OR JUST WEST
OF HATTERAS.

LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST RAP/HRRR...AS
WELL AS THE 00Z/26 NAM...GFS AND ECMWF...SUGGEST THAT THE SFC LOW
TRACKS A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS CYCLES HAD SUGGESTED. IN
RESPONSE...MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED SLIGHTLY FARTHER N AND W WITH
THE HEAVIER QPF...AND ALSO WITH MILDER AIR ALOFT. THEREFORE...SOME
CHANGES WERE MADE TO OUR RECENT FORECAST...WHICH ARE AS FOLLOWS...

CHANGE 1...HAVE ADJUSTED SNOWFALL UPWARD BY AT LEAST 2-5 INCHES
FOR THE CAPITAL REGION...EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND LAKE
GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION. THIS HAS REQUIRED THE EXPANSION OF THE
WINTER STORM WARNINGS INTO THE SARATOGA/LAKE GEORGE REGION AND
CENTRAL/EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. GENERALLY 8-10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE AREAS IMMEDIATELY N AND W OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND
GENERALLY 10-14 INCHES WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

CHANGE 2...WITH THE STORM TRACK EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY FURTHER
WEST...WARMER MID LEVEL AIR IS EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF NW
CT...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES. THUS...IN THESE AREAS...HAVE LOWERED SNOWFALL
TOTALS...WITH MAINLY 6-8 INCHES EXPECTED...LOWEST IN SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY...WHERE SOME SLEET IS NOW EXPECTED TO MIX IN DUE
TO THE WARMING ALOFT.

CHANGE 3...HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF SOME RAIN THIS MORNING AT THE
TIME THE PRECIPITATION STARTS...DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WARM
BOUNDARY LAYER CURRENTLY IN PLACE...MAINLY FOR AREAS FROM ALBANY
AND AREAS TO THE S AND E.

OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH BETWEEN DAYBREAK AND 10 AM ACROSS THE SE CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES...BETWEEN 10 AM AND
NOON FURTHER N ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION...LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA
REGION...SCHOHARIE VALLEY...BERKSHIRES...AND MOHAWK VALLEY...AND
BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

AGAIN...SOME RAIN MAY BE MIXED IN FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY WITHIN AN HOUR OF THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...BEFORE
WET BULB COOLING ALLOWS FOR PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE TO SNOW.

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL
BECOME LIKELY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
POSSIBILITY OF EVEN GREATER SNOWFALL RATES OF BETWEEN 2 AND 3
INCHES PER HOUR...ESP FROM THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION AND POINTS
JUST S AND E...INTO THE TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...AND NORTHERN
LITCHFIELD CO...WHERE THE STRONGEST MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS
SUGGESTED TO BE.

TEMPERATURES MAY INITIALLY RISE A BIT BEFORE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS...INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S...BEFORE FALLING BACK THROUGH
THE MID AND EVENTUALLY LOWER 30S FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY DUE TO
CHANNELING OF WINDS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE CATSKILLS...AND
SOUTHERN TACONICS/BERKSHIRES/LITCHFIELD HILLS. IN THESE
AREAS...GUSTS OF UP TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED. LUCKILY...THE SNOW
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WET IN CONSISTENCY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY...SO BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO BAD
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...BANDS OF SNOW...MODERATE TO HEAVY...WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AROUND 10 PM. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TAPER IN
INTENSITY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 10 PM AND 2
AM...ALTHOUGH IT COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER IN PORTIONS OF THE
CAPITAL REGION...SOUTHERN VT AND BERKSHIRES...PARTIALLY IN
RESPONSE TO SOME MOHAWK/HUDSON CONVERGENCE. NORTH WINDS WILL
REMAIN A BIT GUSTY...AGAIN MAINLY 10-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE. THE SNOW SHOULD BECOME A BIT DRIER IN
CONSISTENCY BEFORE TAPERING OFF TONIGHT...SOME SOME
BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW MAY DEVELOP. MIN TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO
THE MID/UPPER 20S...EXCEPT FOR SOME LOWER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ADIRONDACKS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND.

REGARDING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMTS...IT APPEARS THAT A STRIPE OF
10-14 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL
REGION...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN VT.
SLIGHTLY LOWER AMTS...OF 6-10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WHERE SOME INITIAL SNOWFALL MAY BE LOST
DUE TO WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
SLEET MIXING IN THIS EVENING. FURTHER N AND W...6-10 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA REGION AND
CENTRAL/EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 2-6 INCHES ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

FOR THURSDAY...SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL BE LINGERING IN THE
MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE. SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE LATER IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE POSSIBLY INCREASING AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE FAR ENOUGH REMOVED FROM THE 
REGION...CYCLONIC FLOW AND ONE MORE ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE IS 
FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.  THEREFORE...WE 
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHC-SCT CATEGORY WITH THOSE HIGHER POPS INTO 
THE TERRAIN.  AS THE COLUMN WILL BE BELOW FREEZING...PRECIP TYPE 
WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WITH ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE LIFTS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.  IN 
ITS WAKE THE COMBINATION OF RISING HEIGHTS AND SURFACE PRESSURES 
WILL LEAVE US UNDER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND SOME IMPROVEMENT TO THE 
SKY COVER. MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS...HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT HELP TOO MUCH WITH TEMPERATURES 
AS H850 TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN -10C TO -13C.  HIGHS FRIDAY 
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER HALF OF THE 
30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PER THE PREVIOUS EXCELLENT LONG TERM DISCUSSION...LONG TERM PERIOD 
OF THIS FORECAST WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH THE COMBINATION OF WARM 
AIR RETURNING BEFORE A SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...GLOBAL MODEL TRENDS FAVOR A GRADUAL 
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE ARCTIC 
BOUNDARY SITUATED ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER.  THIS LOW IS 
FORECAST TO TRACK EAST THEN NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION 
THIS WEEKEND.  THE DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS WILL FAVOR A REBOUND IN THE 
THERMAL PROFILES...HOWEVER...THE ISSUE WILL BE A GRADUAL MOIST 
ISENTROPIC LIFT.  THIS SHOULD KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST AND THE 
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE 
REGION.  PRECIP TYPES WILL VARY DUE TO THE THERMAL COLUMN AND 
NOCTURNAL PROCESSES TO WARRANT A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW 
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.  WE FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES 
WHICH WERE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF-MOS/GMOS.

MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THIS WILL BE THE DAY OF TRANSITION AS 
THAT SHARP COLD FRONT/ARCTIC BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SLIDE ACROSS 
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.  IN FACT...TRENDS IN THE SHOWALTER INDEX 
ARE GETTING LOWER WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE TRENDS 
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.  REGARDLESS OF CONVECTION...THIS 
FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANGE TO THE REGION WITH H850 TEMPS 
INITIALLY IN THE +6 TO +8C RANGE EARLIER IN THE DAY...TO -10C TO 
-15C MONDAY NIGHT.  HIGHS MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 40S FOR VALLEY 
LOCATIONS AND M-U30S FOR THE TERRAIN.  MONDAY NIGHT LOWS...THE 
COMBINATION OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND CLEARING SKIES THANKS TO 
1040MB SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDING INTO THE REGION...TEMPERATURES 
WILL LIKELY DROP BACK TO THE TEENS AND MID 20S AND WITH SOME 
WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL BE LOWER.

TUESDAY...CONSENSUS FAVORS A LARGE 1040MB SURFACE HIGH ACROSS 
UPSTATE NY WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN OF AIR.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN 
GOOD AMOUNT OF EARLY DECEMBER SUNSHINE AND NEAR SEASONABLE 
TEMPERATURES. 

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

PRIOR TO SNOW ARRIVING...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 
12Z AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. KPOU COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW AND IFR VSBY 
DEVELOPING JUST BEFORE 12Z...SO HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO TO MENTION 
THIS STARTING AT 11Z. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE 
TO IFR AS SNOW SPREADS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 12Z-15Z. 

SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...WITH 
CONDITIONS LIKELY DETERIORATING TO LIFR. SNOW WILL START TO LIGHTEN 
IN INTENSITY AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW PERSISTING THROUGH 
06Z THURSDAY WITH CONTINUED IFR CONDITIONS.

WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS BY LATER THIS 
MORNING...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AS COASTAL LOW IMPACTS REGION WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE SHORT LIVED
AND WILL RESULT SOME SNOW MELT AND RIPENING OF SNOW PACK. HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 30S AND COLDER SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SO MELT WILL STOP.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ058>061-
     063>066.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST 
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ039>041-043-047>054-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST 
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...IAA/KL







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