000
FXUS61 KALY 190832
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
432 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND BRING DRY AND 
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. GENERALLY FAIR 
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...ALONG 
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM...EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART 
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND PATCHY FOG IN SOME OTHER AREAS...SKIES HAVE 
GENERALLY CLEARED ACROSS THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO 
BUILD IN THE FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR IN 
ALL AREAS BY LATER THIS MORNING. DESPITE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY...
THE AIRMASS IS COOL AND HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...
GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT 
WINDS. THIE WILL PRODUCE AN UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 
UPPER 30S AND 40S.

THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON 
THURSDAY AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND IT WILL PRODUCE A WARMING 
TREND THROUGH FRIDAY...ALONG WITH THE CONTINUATION OF FAIR WEATHER.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE 70 TO 80. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 
40S AND 50S...AND HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM FLOW OF AIR AROUND 
THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE 
BUILDING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...WITH OUR 
AREA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. 

IT STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH WE WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF 
OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE PATTERN TURN SOMEWHAT MORE UNSETTLED. 
KEPT MENTION OF JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR 
MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS. NOT 
MUCH OF A SYNOPTIC TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...BUT A STRAY SHOWER OR 
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE BETTER CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION 
WILL BE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS POSSIBLE MULTIPLE 
DISTURBANCES IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MIGRATE ACROSS THE AREA. 
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS 
DEVELOPING...INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY. ANY WEAK IMPULSE 
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. STORMS COULD 
POTENTIALLY BE STRONG DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY/SHEAR.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 
PRECIPITATION WIDELY VARYING BASED ON WHICH AREAS HAVE CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO POSSIBLE FOG FORMATION AT 
KGFL/KPSF. IFR FOG ALREADY OCCURRED AT KGFL EARLIER THIS 
EVENING...HOWEVER A NORTHERLY BREEZE DEVELOPED AND HAS PERSISTED 
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS. IT APPEARS AS THROUGH THE GRADIENT WILL 
BE PRONOUNCED ENOUGH FOR THE NORTHERLY BREEZE TO CONTINUE. 
HOWEVER..IF WINDS CAN GO CALM EVEN FOR A SHORT TIME OCCASIONAL FOG 
AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY OCCUR. SO WILL MENTION TEMPO 
FOR POSSIBLE FOG BETWEEN 07Z-10Z. WINDS REMAIN CALM AT KPSF AND 
CLOUDS HAVE SCOURED OUT...SO THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FOG FORMATION 
THERE BEFORE THE NORTHERLY BREEZE COMMENCES. WILL ALSO MENTION A 
TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BETWEEN 06Z-10Z. KALB/KPOU EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN VFR.

ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY AROUND 10Z...WITH A DRY AIR MASS MOVING 
IN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SOME 
RADIATION FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT KGFL/KPSF ONCE DECOUPLING 
OCCURS.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 5 KT OR LESS...INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 
KT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 
DARK TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK... 
WED NIGHT-FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT FOG AT 
KGFL/KPSF. 
SAT...MAINLY VFR. SLGT CHC -TSRA/-SHRA.
SUN...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RECENT WET 
WEATHER.  

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TODAY AND BRING DRY AND 
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. GENERALLY FAIR 
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...ALONG 
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. 

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ALLOWING RIVERS TO 
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE VERY WET CONDITIONS OF THE PAST 
FEW WEEKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM