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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 221121
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
721 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR TODAY IN THE 
WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH 
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE 
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO FILL BACK IN ACROSS
VALLEY AREAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NW CT AND PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY WHERE SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR. SOME SPRINKLES
ARE NOTED IN RADAR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES
ALSO NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION.

OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/COLD
POOL...AND ANOTHER SFC TROUGH PIVOT EAST TOWARD THE REGION...WE
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF CLOUDS TO CONTINUE EXPANDING. IN
ADDITION...SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FURTHER S AND E INTO THE
MOHAWK AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEYS...AND SOUTHERN VT SHORTLY AFTER
DAYBREAK. SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES SHOULD BECOME MORE CONFINED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN VT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

SO...ALTHOUGH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN MAY OCCUR RIGHT AROUND
SUNRISE IN VALLEY AREAS...WE DO EXPECT A TREND TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE COULD ALLOW FOR MORE BREAKS TO DEVELOP IN VALLEY
AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE REMAINS AT LEAST A CHANCE
THAT MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A
DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED SKIES
BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN VALLEYS...WHILE
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE THE CLOUDS REMAIN MORE PERSISTENT.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE TRICKY...AS STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WOULD SUPPORT TEMPS TO HOLD STEADY...OR SLOWLY FALL FROM THIS
MORNING/S LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL INDICATE A SMALL RISE IN TEMPS
DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HOURS...BEFORE SLOWLY FALLING THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MAV/MET
MOS...WITH MAXES GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60
IN MOST VALLEYS...EXCEPT FOR MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN NW CT...WHERE MORE SUNSHINE...AND
DOWNSLOPING OFF THE CATSKILLS SHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WARMING.
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MOST MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY REACH THE
50S...WITH PERHAPS SOME 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE 
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF 
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW 
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING 
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.  

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY 
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED 
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. 
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN 
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IS 
SPREADING INTO EASTERN NY AND CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MVFR 
RANGE JUST WEST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES 
THIS MORNING AS WELL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCSH ANYWHERE. 
SO... THESE LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS OUR REGION...FOR 
INTERVALS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED 
TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO ABOVE 3000 FEET LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN 
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... 
ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS...WITH SKC DURING THE EVENING AND NIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT BY MID 
MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GUSTING TO 
AROUND 25 KT AT TIMES...THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY THROUGH TOMORROW 
EVENING. WINDS SHOULD JUST BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDNIGHT AND 
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







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