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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 301049
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
648 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID TODAY 
BUT IT WILL REMAIN RAINFREE. LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SLOW MOVING 
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME 
POSSIBLY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LABOR 
DAY. IT WILL BE VERY WARM HUMID AND MAINLY RAINFREE...BUT AN 
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE HAS STARTED THE DAY 
ACROSS THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS INDICATED THAT INDEED 
CLOUDS HAVE ACTUALLY THINNED ACROSS OUR REGION...WITH ONLY A FEW 
SENSIBLE AND CIRRUS CLOUDS AROUND AT THIS TIME. 

FOR THIS UPDATE...DID LOWER THE CLOUD COVER A LITTLE BIT MORE.

IT STILL LOOKS AS IF HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE...BUT 
PROBABLY NOT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. UNTIL THEN...WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO 
HAVE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE. ANY FOG PATCHES WILL QUICKLY 
DISSIPATE.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PICKUP THROUGH THE AREA BY THIS 
AFTERNOON...AVERAGING 10-15 MPH. IT WILL REMAIN DRY EVEN AS THE SUN 
DIMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET CLOSE TO 80 ACROSS THE REGION...SO 
A LITTLE WARMER THAN FRIDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 
50S...SO STILL NOT ALL THAT HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...THE H20 WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A RATHER 
POTENT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ADVECT 
EASTWARD AND MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS ON SUNDAY. AT THE SAME 
TIME...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE INTO THE AREA AS WELL SUNDAY. 
AHEAD OF IT...AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PULL VERY MOIST 
AIR FROM THE GULF STATES...AND OUR PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 
ABOUT 2 INCHES. 

THIS SHOULD SET THE STATE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED 
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY SUNRISE 
SUNDAY...AND WHILE SUNDAY MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY BE A WASHOUT...THE 
THREAT OF RAIN WILL THERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. 

IT LOOKS AS IF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH IT COULD 
EASILY REACH 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IF WE RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE THAN 
WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING...THAT NUMBER COULD INCREASE A LOT 
WHICH WOULD IN TURN INCREASE THE POTENCY OF THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT 
NOW...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MODEST AT ONLY AROUND 5.0 C/KM. 
HOWEVER...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR LOOKS TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 35KTS. 

SO...RIGHT NOT...THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS SLIM (BUT 
POSSIBLE). THE BETTER BET IS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN 
HEAVY RAINFALL SO WE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING ("THUNDERSTORMS 
MIGHT CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL") SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WE WILL 
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. 

SUNSHINE OR NOT...THE HUMIDITY WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH 
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S...POSSIBLY TOUCHING 70. HIGH 
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS OUR ADIRONDACKS...TO 
NEAR 80 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...UP TO THE MID 80S SOUTH OF A 
KINGSTON/TORRINGTON LINE. 

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT OFF TO THE 
EAST. THE TRAILING FRONT COULD LIE DOWN IN OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. WHILE 
FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...IT MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH OF FOCUS FOR 
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY ON LABOR DAY. 
THE BEST CHANCE OF THESE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. WE 
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPITAL 
REGION NORTHWARD...LOW CHANCES (30 POPS) SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL 
REGION. 

THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY. AS RESULT...TEMPERATURES 
LOOK QUITE WARM (WITH H850 TEMPERATURES PROGGED AROUND +16C) SURFACE 
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST PLACES 
MAKING IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY...ESPECIALLY SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL 
REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

IT WILL BE MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT WITH A CONTINUE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED 
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND 
NIGHT...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 
REGION ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. 

HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO LIKELY 
VALUES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...RANGING TO 
ONLY LOW CHANCE VALUES (30 TO 35 PERCENT) OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY 
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY. FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT POPS ARE FORECAST 
TO BE IN THE 35 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST 
AREA...THEN DECREASE TO DRY LEVELS (14 PERCENT OR LESS) BY SUNRISE 
WEDNESDAY. 

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH 
FRIDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS 
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOST OF THE MOHAWK 
AND SCHOHARIE VALLEYS...DUE TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING 
FROM THE WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS 
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 
60S. A LITTLE COOLER THEREAFTER...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY 
AND THURSDAY NIGHTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANY LEFTOVER FOG AT KPSF SHOULD BURN OFF BY 13Z...OTHERWISE EXPECT 
ALL THE TAF SITES (KALB/KPOU/KGFL/KPSF) TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS 
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT 
SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE 
REGION AND HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KGFL/KALB/KPOU AFTER 06Z 
TONIGHT...WITH IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT KPSF.

SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 7 TO 10 KTS...WITH SOME 
GUSTS TO 15 KTS AT KALB. TONIGHT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE 
TO 5 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA. 
LABOR DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. 
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. 
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY...WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY 
FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. A DISTURBANCE MOVING 
ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION WILL BRING 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH 
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION MONDAY BUT ISOLATED 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS A HUMID AIRMASS WILL 
STILL BE OVER THE REGION.

MINIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55 PERCENT SATURDAY AND
65 TO 75 PERCENT SUNDAY. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
80 TO 100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW FORMATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THE SURFACE WIND BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 5-15 MPH TODAY WITH SOME 
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING LIGHTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
IT WILL BE DRY TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.

THEN...IT LOOKS AS IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE 
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN 
RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN 
STREAM RIVERS WILL GENERALLY SEE LITTLE OR NO RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 2 INCHES...ANY 
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING 
AN INCH. ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT LOCALIZED PONDING 
OF WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE...POSSIBLY EVEN LEADING TO 
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. 

IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MIGHT 
ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF OUR AREA FOR SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY 
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS. 

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO 
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES.  


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/NAS
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV












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