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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 281131
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
631 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE INTO THE REGION ACCOMPANIED BY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM EST...LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WERE DIMINISHING AS THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WAS JUST ABOUT OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY WAS EVOLVING DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO EXTENDING
ALONG THE I81 CORRIDOR. PER THE HRRR AND EXPERIMENTAL HRRRX
REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...THIS BAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD 15Z
INTO PORTIONS OF HERKIMER COUNTY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. OTHERWISE...WHILE
SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING /MAINLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY/...MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. UPDATE TO HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKY FORECAST AND TWEAKS TO THE POP/WX BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS.

PREV DISC...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
TRACK ACROSS THE STATE. REGIONAL AND LOCAL RADAR REVEAL VERY LIGHT
RETURNS OF THE LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
THE HUDSON RIVER. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH FORWARD
MOVEMENT...THE AXIS OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACROSS THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY AOA 12Z. THIS SHOULD ELIMINATE THE LIGHT SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...AS BOUNDARY LAYER AND MEAN FLOW BECOME WESTERLY ALONG
WITH COLD ADVECTION /H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TOWARD -15C/...LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE BUILDING INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK THROUGH THE DAY. PER THE BUFR SOUNDINGS...FAVORABLE INVERSION
LEVEL HEIGHTS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW LAKE BANDS TO TRACK
INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. THAT RIDGE THOUGH WILL LIMIT THE INLAND
EXTENT SOMEWHAT SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO CONFINE THE POPS MAINLY
INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN DACKS. AS
FOR THOSE CRUCIAL LOW LEVEL WIND TRAJECTORIES...THE FLOW WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 280-310 PER THE LATEST RAP13/HRRR.  

DUE TO THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS MOST OF
REGION...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL AVERAGE A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. 

TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT INLAND EXTENT THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THEREAFTER...A WARM FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS TOO WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. SO WHERE
CLOUDS DO BREAK UP...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY FALL BACK INTO
THE TEENS BEFORE STEADYING OFF WITH THE CLOUD COVER INCREASING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A PASSAGE OF A
WARM FRONT AND LIKELY HIGHER LEVELS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MODEL
QPFS ARE RATHER LIGHT BUT DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR EITHER
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AND/OR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE DEPENDING
ON THERMAL PROFILES. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE BEST LIFT AND
LOW CPD/S WILL BE ACROSS THE DACKS REGION INTO THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY. SO WE WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ALONG WITH
A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ALONG WITH
THE WARMING THERMAL COLUMN...WE WILL FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. HIGHS MAINLY INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY THEN INTO
THE LOWER HALF OF THE 40S ON SUNDAY. WE WILL FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY ATTAINED IN THE
EVENING WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE 
APPROACHING THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH A 
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY 
MILD FOR SUN NIGHT...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 
TO UPPER 30S. THIS FRONT WON/T HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED 
WITH IT...BUT WILL ALLOW SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW 
SHOWERS. THE MODELS ARE UNCLEAR IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY. 
IF IT WAITS UNTIL LATER ON MONDAY TO PASS THROUGH...TEMPS MAY WIND 
UP BEING MILD FOR MONDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS 
/UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS/.  

BEHIND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA 
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR ANY 
PRECIP AND ALLOWS CLEARING SKIES AND COLDER TEMPS. WITH A COLD 
CANADIAN AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION...OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK LIKE 
THEY MAY WIND UP DROPPING DOWN INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20 FOR MON 
NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COLDER...WITH MANY 
LOCATIONS REMAINING BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH HIGHS 
IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.

WITHIN THE FAST ZONAL FLOW...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY BE 
APPROACHING THE REGION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH 
SOME PRECIP MAY START AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...PRECIP LOOKS TO CHANGE 
TO RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY 
EVEN BE A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN WITH THE TRANSITION...BUT 
WILL NOT PUT IT IN THE GRIDS QUITE YET...AS THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF 
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING/EXTENT OF THIS.  ANY PRECIP LOOKS 
FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE PREVENTING MUCH QPF IN GENERAL. 
ANY PRECIP LOOKS TO END BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MINS TUESDAY EVENING WILL BE IN THE 20S...WITH TEMPS RISING TO THE 
MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR WEDNESDAY. MINS WED NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 
20S TO LOW 30S.

ANOTHER BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION 
FOR THURSDAY WILL QUIET AND DRY WEATHER. HIGHS WILL BE 
SEASONABLE...WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS. ANY DRY 
WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF...AS YET ANOTHER STORM WITH LIGHT PRECIP WILL 
BE APPROACHING FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY VFR FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY TAF SITES 
WITH JUST SOME PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS 
CONTINUE AT KPSF DUE TO LOW CLOUDS THAT REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE 
HIGH TERRAIN OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS LOOK TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE 
NEXT HOUR OR SO...ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN THERE.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE SOME DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU TO DEVELOP. NO 
PRECIP IS EXPECTED...AS LIMITED MOISTURE/FORCING WILL PREVENT ANY 
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES FROM DEVELOPING...AND ANY LAKE EFFECT 
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST. STILL...CIGS WILL BE BKN 
AROUND 3500-5000 FT...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. 
DURING DAYTIME MIXING...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 
AROUND 10 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY FOR KALB/KPSF. WITH A 
WARM FRONT STARTING TO APPROACH...SOME CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO 
TONIGHT...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS 
ENDING TUESDAY. 

ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH BASIN
AVERAGES AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A COATING TO A FEW INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS
THROUGH TODAY...A LITTLE HIGHER DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. 

MILDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME SNOW MELT. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF QUICKLY DURING MONDAY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 9.6 INCHES WAS SET AT ALBANY NY WEDNESDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 4.9 SET IN 1888. ALSO...THIS PLACES
THE STORM INTO THE NUMBER 5 SLOT OF THE TOP 10 SNOWSTORMS FOR
NOVEMBER FOR ALBANY. WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND...WE WILL ALSO WATCH HOW MUCH ADDS UP TO SEE WHERE WE
FINISH UP FOR SNOW BY THE END OF THIS MONTH.

THE 10.4 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT PLACES
THE SNOWSTORM AS NUMBER 5 ALL-TIME FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

TOP 5 NOVEMBER STORMS AT ALBANY 1884-2014
   AMOUNT      DATE     YEAR 
1. 22.5 INCHES 24-25    1971
2. 17.3 INCHES 14-15    1972
3. 14.1 INCHES 22-23    1943
4. 11.8 INCHES 17-18    1980
5. 10.4 INCHES 26-27    2014

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
CLIMATE...NWS ALBANY

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WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY





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