Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Albany, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KALY 270002
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
702 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED 
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY WESTWARD TONIGHT.  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY 
AND MIDWEST TOMORROW INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH BELOW 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.  A QUICK MOVING STORM 
SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO 
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 7 PM EST...THE CONUS IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WITH WEAK RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST. THE TROUGH IS POSITIVELY
TILTED NEAR THE NORTHEAST...AND A SHORT-WAVE IN THE SW FLOW WILL
MOVE FROM ERH OH/W-CNTRL PA TO W-CNTRL NY TONIGHT...AND PASSING
NORTH AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS OR VERY LIGHT SNOW FOR
THE WRN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. SOME CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED HERE
FOR GENERALLY A COATING TO A HALF AN INCH. A FEW FLURRIES OR SNOW
SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO THE CAPITAL REGION/LAKE GEORGE REGION/SRN
VT...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI CITIES SHOULD
STAY DRY WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

LOWS WILL BE ON THE FRIGID SIDE AGAIN IN THE ZERO TO 5 ABOVE RANGE
FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW
IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...WITH SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW VALUES IN THE
SRN DACKS. THE WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH AT 5 MPH OR LESS TO
KEEP WIND CHILLS OUT OF THE ADVISORY RANGE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN UPSTREAM...AND A FEW
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY GRAZE THE SW EXTREME OF THE FCST AREA
EARLY IN THE MORNING. THE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR WITH A LARGE
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS IS
ANOTHER FRIGID AIR MASS...AS H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN -16C TO -20C
RANGE. SOME MIXING WILL OCCUR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH W TO NW
SFC WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS OVER THE HIGH PEAKS...AND A FEW L20S IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

FRI NIGHT...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED. W TO NW WINDS OF
5 TO 10 MPH MAY ACTUALLY YIELD SOME WIND CHILLS IN THE -15 TO -25F RANGE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. A MENTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE HWO.
THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE SFC WINDS DECOUPLE IN THE
SFC LAYER. THE 1045 HPA OR SO SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE BUILDING IN
FROM THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS SHOULD PROMOTE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING.  

FRIGID MINS OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW READING WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS MOST OF THE FCST AREA WITH SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...SRN DACKS...AND THE LAKE GEORGE
REGION.

THE WEEKEND WILL OPEN WITH MAINLY FAIR AND COLD WEATHER WITH THE
DOMINATING ARCTIC HIGH. THE SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER NY AND PA
DURING THE DAY. THE MID LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO BECOME ZONAL.
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TEMPS WILL
MODERATE TO UPPER TEENS TO M20S RANGE IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAINLY
TEENS OVER THE MTNS. A FEW LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO
THE WRN DACKS LATE SAT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH VERY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMS. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED...BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD AS
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH SOME 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO READINGS IN
MOST SPOTS...AND A FEW 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO READINGS IN THE SRN
DACKS. A DISTURBANCE IN THE ZONAL FLOW WILL BE QUICKLY
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE BY SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED LOOKS UNSETTLED BUT FOR ONCE...NOT AS COLD. WHILE THE 
RIDGE IN THE WEST IS NOT GOING TO COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN...IT LOOKS 
TO WEAKEN...AND THE PERSISTENT TROUGH LOCKED OVER OUR REGION ALSO 
WILL WEAKEN WHILE THE POLAR VORTEX LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE ARCTIC 
CIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM...WHICH HAS BEEN 
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH FOR THE PAST FEW WEEKS...WILL SURGE 
NORTHWARD BRINGING THE STORM TRACK INTO OUR AREA DURING THE EXTENDED 
PERIOD.

THE EXTENDED STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING TO OUR EAST ON 
SUNDAY. AFTER THE COLD START...ANY SUNSHINE WILL QUICKLY BE FOLLOWED 
CLOUDS AND THE INCREASING THREAT FOR SNOW BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AS A 
WARM FRONT AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE APPROACH THE REGION. HIGHS WILL 
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S. 

A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL LOOKS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT ENDING EARLY 
MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDS IN LATER IN THE DAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW BREAKS OF AFTERNOON 
SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL HOLD IN THE 20S...AND THEN RISE 
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...STILL IN THE 
20S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 

IT WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 
RANGING FROM AROUND ZERO NORTH...CLOSE TO 10 LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL 
REGION...TEENS SOUTH. TUESDAY THIS HIGH WILL MOVE TO OUR 
EAST...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE TO APPROACH US BY LATE 
IN THE DAY. 

IT NOW APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE COULD TRACK TO 
THE WEST OF OUR REGION ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PULL SOME MILDER 
AIR OVER OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS NOT ETCHED 
IN STONE...BOTH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF 
OFFERED THIS SOLUTION AS DO A LOT OF THE 12Z GEFS MEMBERS. SOME OF 
THE GEF INDICATED ICE AND OR SNOW...BUT AGAIN A TRACK LIKE THIS 
WOULD NOT SUPPORT EITHER A SNOWSTORM OR ICE STORM. OBVIOUSLY...IF 
HIGH PRESSURE WERE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA (A BACK DOOR 
FRONT) THAT WOULD PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY WARMUP. HOWEVER...THERE WAS 
NO EVIDENCE ON THE 12Z GUIDANCE. 

ASSUMING THIS STORM TRACKS TO OUR WEST....IT COULD STILL MEAN 
PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT SNOW LATE TUESDAY...THEN MIXES WITH 
SLEET...PERHAPS A LITTLE FREEZING RAIN...THEN GO TO RAIN MOST PLACES 
BY WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW IN THE EXTENDED...WE JUST USED A RAIN/SNOW 
MIX. 

HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S HIGHER 
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 30S IN THE VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES COULD 
BRIEFLY DROP TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING...BUT 
PROBABLY ONLY A FEW DEGREES BEFORE POSSIBLY RISING OVERNIGHT. ON 
WEDNESDAY...HIGHS COULD REACH 40 OR A BIT BETTER IN MANY VALLEY 
AREAS...30S...MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 

IT DOES NOT LOOK WARM ENOUGH TO INDUCE ANY SERIOUS MELTING OF THE 
SNOW...OR ENOUGH TO BREAK UP ANY ICE. 

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE 
REGION WITH MORE ADDITIONAL RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THEN...ON 
THURSDAY...WE WILL HAVE TO LOOK OUT FOR THE POSSIBLE SECONDARY 
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ON THIS FRONT...WHICH COULD RIDE UP THE 
COAST. IT IS A LOW PROBABILITY BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. FOR 
NOW...WENT WITH 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY WITH HIGHS 
SLIPPING TO THE 20S HIGHER TERRAIN...AND AROUND 30 VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
CLOUDS WILL THEN LINGER INTO FRI MORNING...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRI AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/SAT.
HOWEVER...THROUGH AROUND 04Z/FRI...SOME SPOTTY VERY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESP AT KALB AND KGFL. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS INTO MVFR OR IFR
COULD OCCUR DURING THIS TIME...ESP AT KGFL.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 8 KT
TONIGHT...TRENDING INTO THE NORTHWEST TO WEST ON FRIDAY AT 5-10
KT.
 
OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. 
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY. 
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON TUESDAY.

SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT MAINLY
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT AMOUNTING TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. VERY COLD AND DRY
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/WASULA



National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy