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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 202054
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
454 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES 
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A 
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED 
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST 
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 4 PM EDT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE 
REGION...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL BREAKS PERSIST AT TIMES ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL WEAK RETURNS
ON RADAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT MOST OF THIS IS EVAPORATING
BEFORE REACHING THE SFC...OR VIRGA. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
A FEW SPRINKLES COULD REACH THE GROUND ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF
THE BERKSHIRES...AND THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAY LIMIT MUCH RAINFALL FROM 
OCCURRING OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN 
ADIRONDACKS...WHERE MID LEVELS WILL HAVE MOISTENED UP A BIT...AND 
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT. SOME SCATTERED SPRINKLES 
MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT A BIT FARTHER S AND E...ESP TOWARD 
DAYBREAK...WHEN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD OCCUR. WILL GENERALLY KEEP 
POPS IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST TOWARD DAYBREAK...EXCEPT 
FOR SOME LIKELY POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO CLOUDS AND 
WARM ADVECTION. HAVE TRENDED MOST AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET 
MOS...WITH GENERALLY UPPER 30S TO MID 40S EXPECTED...WARMEST WITHIN 
THE HUDSON VALLEY REGION...WHERE A LIGHT SOUTH WIND SHOULD PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL FORM A CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. FOR OUR REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT...ESP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. SO...IT APPEARS
THAT MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WOULD BE THE BEST WAY TO
DESCRIBE RAINFALL CHANCES DURING TUESDAY...WITH SOME AREAS
POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING SOME LONGER STRETCHES OF DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN.
IN FACT...ACROSS SOME SOUTHERN AREAS...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN COULD
EVEN OCCUR AT TIMES. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE MORE PERSISTENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY THE
SE CATSKILLS...WHERE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
INDICATED...AND RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE MORE PERSISTENT. FOR TUE
NT...AGAIN...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT
GREAT...WITH THE MAIN FORCING DURING THIS TIME REMAINING ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND COAST. WILL KEEP
CHC TO LOW LIKELY POPS...BUT AGAIN...IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT
BE RAINING ALL THE TIME AND IN ALL AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...ASSUMING
SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS...AND LIMITED PRECIP OCCUR...HAVE
SIDED A BIT CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET MOS FOR TUE MAXES...WITH
GENERALLY 55-60 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS
HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR TUE NT...AS LOW LEVEL WINDS GRADUALLY BACK
INTO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO LOWERING PRESSURES TO OUR SOUTH...TEMPS
SHOULD COOL INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S...WITH PERHAPS SOME UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WED-THU...MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL 
EASTERLY JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS 
TIME...BEFORE SLOWLY PIVOTING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WED NT-THU. THE 
NOSE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET SEEMS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW 
ENGLAND FOR WED AFTN...BEFORE PIVOTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND LATE WED NT AND THU. LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW LEVEL JET...ALONG WITH STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
295-300 K SURFACES...WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND NW CT FOR A TIME WED NT-
THU. ALSO...A SECONDARY MAX IN PRECIP IS LIKELY ACROSS UPSLOPE
AREAS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT
BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN THESE MORE FAVORABLE AREAS...WITH
GENERALLY 0.50-1 INCH IN THE VALLEYS. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT STRONG NE DOWNSLOPING WINDS COULD CREATE MORE DRAMATIC RAIN
SHADOWING IN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...WHERE SOME
AREAS COULD BE AT OR EVEN BELOW THE LOWER END OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED VALLEY RANGES. SO...BANDS OF RAIN ROTATING WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW CENTER WILL BECOME MORE
PROMINENT FOR WED-THU...WITH A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN
POSSIBLE...ESP WED NT AND THU AM...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BRIEFLY
ORIENTS ITSELF TOWARD EASTERN NYS/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT WILL BE
QUITE RAW DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH BRISK N/NE WINDS. IN
FACT...SOME GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH COULD OCCUR AT TIMES ACROSS SOME
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO WED NT. MAX TEMPS ON WED SHOULD ONLY REACH THE
LOWER/MID 50S IN VALLEYS...AND 40S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...ALTHOUGH EVEN COOLER MAXES COULD OCCUR IF STEADIER
RAIN DEVELOPS. THU MAXES SHOULD ONLY REACH 45-50 FOR MOST VALLEY
AREAS AND 40-45 ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS FOR WED
NT/THU AM SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 40S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THINGS START OFF WET BUT QUICKLY TURN DRY AS LOW PRESSURE EAST OF 
CAPE COD HEADS UP THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...DRAWING WET 
WEATHER TO A CLOSE FRIDAY NIGHT...AND PROVIDING FOR A PLEASANT LATE 
OCTOBER WEEKEND.  A FEW WESTERN ADIRONDACK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE 
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RAPIDLY 
MOVING...THOUGH VERY DRY...COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL 
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  BY EARLY MONDAY...THIS FRONT WILL 
HAVE MADE IT ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THE COLD AIR WILL BE 
HARDLY NOTICEABLE DOWN THERE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN MOSTLY THE 45 TO 60 DEGREE 
RANGE...BUT WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES MILDER FOR THE BALANCE OF THE 
EXTENDED.  OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE 
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT WILL FALL INTO 
THE 40S EVERYWHERE.  NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD IN 
ALBANY ARE IN THE THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO 
UPPER 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD 
ENDING 18Z TUESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY SPREADING
ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES. CEILING HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD LOWER OVERNIGHT BUT
REMAIN IN VFR RANGE AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z...SO WILL MENTION VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING
ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 12Z-18Z BUT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO
BE TOO LIMITED TO INDICATE A TEMPO OR EVEN A PROB30...BUT LATER
TAF ISSUANCES WILL BETTER RESOLVE HOW MUCH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
THERE WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON..THEN
DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN VARIABLE AT 5KT OR LESS
TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COMPLEX WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE GREAT LAKES 
TONIGHT...AND INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 
WEDNESDAY...THEN NORTHEAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A 
LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED 
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST 
RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TURN UNSETTLED AND WET BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. INTERMITTENT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR LATE WED INTO EARLY THU.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY
OCCUR...ESP LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK. THIS RAINFALL
WOULD OCCUR OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT THE GREATEST AMTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...WITH LESS AMTS OCCURRING WITHIN THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO DOWNSLOPING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







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