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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 130210
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1010 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALONG WITH DECREASING WINDS AND NEARLY CLEAR SKIES... 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER CHILLY TONIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL START 
TO MODERATE BACK TOWARDS MORE NORMAL LEVELS FOR FRIDAY...WITH 
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER. A STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION 
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME RAIN...ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW OR MIXED 
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH THE START AND END OF THE 
STORM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1010 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO ENCROACH UPON THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO PERHAPS
MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS INTERSTATE 90 BY DAYBREAK.

THE 00Z/13 KALB SOUNDING INDICATED A FAIRLY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER. WE STILL EXPECT SOME GRADUAL DECOUPLING TO OCCUR LATER
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING CLOUDS MAY ACT TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL COOLING. HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS A BIT...ESP
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT WILL EXPECT TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR
MANY AREAS...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...IF THE CLOUDS THICKEN FAST ENOUGH...EVEN
WARMER OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS COULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND
MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. CLOUDS LOOK
TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...ESP THE AFTN. EVEN THOUGH
THERE WILL BE A WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW...THE INCREASING CLOUDS WILL
PREVENT TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO WARM. HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID
30S TO LOW 40S.

TEMPS MAY ONLY COOL OFF SLIGHTLY FOR FRI EVENING...AND WILL
PROBABLY WIND UP HOLDING STEADY OR EVEN SLOWLY RISING THEN FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC AND LOOKS TO REACH OUR AREA FOR THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS...PROBABLY AFTER 3-4 AM IN MOST AREAS.

WITH TEMPS NEAR THE FREEZING MARK...THERE MAY BE A FEW HOUR PERIOD
OF MIXED PRECIP...MAINLY SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR SOUTHERN
AREAS...AND SNOW/SLEET ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...BEFORE TEMPS WARM
UP ENOUGH. SOME LIGHT ICE ACCRETION OR A COATING OF SNOW/SLEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HWO. ANY MIXED PRECIP LOOKS BRIEF...AS TEMPS WILL BE WARMING LATE
IN THE NIGHT AND INTO SAT MORNING...AS PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO
RAIN. THE CHANGEOVER WILL TAKE LONGEST IN THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND
SRN GREEN MOUNTAINS...WHERE IT MAY TAKE UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING
ON SATURDAY FOR THE CHANGEOVER TO FULLY OCCUR.

WITH THE SFC LOW LIFTING TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES...THE STEADIEST RAINFALL LOOK TO OCCUR BETWEEN MID MORNING
AND EARLY AFTN ON SATURDAY. AFTERWARD...STEADY PRECIP LOOKS TO
SHIFT NORTHEAST...AS THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT MOVES TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND...AND A SECONDARY SFC LOW STARTS TO TAKE OVER ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP OCCURRING
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S. 

SOME ADDITIONAL LINGERING PRECIP WILL OCCUR BETWEEN SAT NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING FROM THE NORTH COUNTRY
OF NY TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND...THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST PRECIP
WILL LIKELY BE JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA...PERHAPS BRUSHING ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS. WITH TEMPS COOLING ALOFT...THE PRECIP OVER OUR
AREA WILL BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...WITH SNOW SHOWERS MORE
LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. BEST CHANCE
FOR SEEING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE ADIRONDACKS AND SRN
GREENS BETWEEN SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH JUST A COATING TO AN
INCH FOR OTHER AREAS...INCLUDING THE VALLEYS. PRECIP WILL START TO
BECOME MORE SPOTTY BY LATE SUN AFTN...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
STARTS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH THE CONTINUED CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND SHOWERY PRECIP...AS WELL AS THE COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT...BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE IN PLACE. MIN TEMPS ON SAT
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S...AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL
ONLY BE IN THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY 
BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND BELOW NORMAL 
PRECIPITATION.

AFTER A TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE REGION 
MONDAY...MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL ACROSS 
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS...AS SEVERAL NORTHERN STREAM 
IMPULSES MOVE ACROSS. THE FIRST IMPULSE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE 
REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...ALLOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT TO MOVE 
ACROSS THE REGION. IT APPEARS THAT OVERALL MOISTURE WILL BE 
LIMITED...SO EXPECT SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN IN VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW 
SHOWERS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS INITIALLY...BEFORE CHANGING TO 
MAINLY SNOW IN ALL AREAS BY LATE TUE...ALTHOUGH SHOULD BE FAIRLY 
LIGHT IN INTENSITY. THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS FRONT...OTHER THAN 
FALLING TEMPERATURES...WILL BE STRONG/GUSTY WINDS...AS DEEP MIXING 
AND A TIGHT LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. 
WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF RATHER STRONG WINDS DEVELOP WITH AND 
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS FRONT...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING THAT 
IS PASSES.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE REGION 
SOMETIME LATER IN THE WEEK...PERHAPS AROUND THURSDAY. THIS COULD 
BRING YET ANOTHER REINFORCING ARCTIC AIR MASS INTO THE REGION IN ITS 
WAKE...ALONG WITH SOME PASSING SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.

SO...HERE ARE SOME MORE SPECIFICS ON THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE 
FORECAST...

MONDAY...SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR...AND MOST LIKELY THE MILDEST DAY 
OF THE LONG TERM DUE TO TRANSIENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SOME 
SUNSHINE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH AT LEAST THE LOWER/MID 40S IN MANY 
AREAS...AND 35-40 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME 
VALLEY AREAS...ESP WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY 
SOUTH...EXPERIENCE EVEN WARMER TEMPS.

MON NT-WED...THE FIRST UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT 
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS SOMETIME LATE MON NT OR TUE. SHOWERS OF RAIN IN 
VALLEYS...AND RAIN/SNOW FOR HIGHER TERRAIN MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS IN 
ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY WITH AND BEHIND THE 
FRONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. AS FOR 
TEMPS...THEY MAY INITIALLY REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL 
PASSAGE...PERHAPS ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL AREAS...BEFORE FALLING INTO 
THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER 30S IN 
VALLEYS...SHOULD THE FRONT PASS THROUGH PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. ON 
TUE...TEMPS MAY NOT RISE MUCH...IF AT ALL...AND MAY ACTUALLY FALL IN 
THE AFTERNOON AFTER POSSIBLY REACHING THE 30S ACROSS HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS AND SOME 40S IN VALLEYS. TUE NT/WED...EXPECT COLD BUT 
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS 
TUE NT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY. 
TEMPS WILL BECOME QUITE COLD...FALLING INTO THE TEENS IN MOST 
VALLEYS AND SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FOR TUE NT/WED 
AM...AND ONLY RECOVERING INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR VALLEYS...AND 
20S ACROSS MOST HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR WED.

WED NT-THU...THE NEXT IMPULSE AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY 
APPROACH ON THU. WEAK AND TRANSIENT RIDGING COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD 
OF MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WED NT/EARLY THU...BEFORE SNOW SHOWERS 
POSSIBLY DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY. IT SHOULD REMAIN COLD WED NT/THU 
AM...WITH MINS MAINLY IN THE TEENS...EXCEPT SOME SINGLE DIGITS 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THU MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 
LOWER/MID 30S IN VALLEYS...AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A CLEAR SKY
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE
WEATHER. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TIMED TO AFFECT
OUR REGION SATURDAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 8 TO 12 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT WILL
DIMINISH TO LIGHT THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...THEN SHOULD BECOME
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5-10 KT FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK... 

FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -PL/-RA/-SN LATE.
SAT-SAT NT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHRA/-SHSN.
SUN NT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MON NT-TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHRA/-SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER TEMPERATURES HAVE ALLOWED FOR SNOW MELT TO OCCUR ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE SNOWPACK AT ALBANY
AIRPORT WAS 10 INCHES ON MONDAY...BUT MELTING HAS NOW LEFT LESS
THAN AN INCH ACCORDING TO THE 18Z KALB OBSERVATION.
HOWEVER...OUTLYING AREAS CONTINUE TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK.
OBSERVATIONS SHOW UP TO A FOOT STILL REMAINS IN OTHER VALLEY
AREAS...WITH AT LEAST ONE TO THREE FEET OF SNOW IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MODELED ANALYSIS FROM
NOHRSC...THE TOTAL SWE /SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT/ ACROSS THESE HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS IS 4 TO 8 INCHES OF WATER...WITH EVEN SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS IN THE SRN ADIRONDACKS AND SRN GREENS.

SOME SMALL RISES HAVE BEEN SEEN ON AREA HYDROGRAPHS...ESPECIALLY 
ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...RIVER ICE REMAINS IN 
PLACE ON MANY MAIN STEM RIVERS. SOME SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS MAY 
BE STARTING TO LOSE THEIR ICE...BUT THE ICE IS LIKELY JUST BEING 
PUSHED DOWNSTREAM AND PILING UP INTO THE LARGER RIVERS AND LAKES.

ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MINOR FLOODING IN AN ISOLATED 
LOCATION BETWEEN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE
TO JUST SEE SOME DIURNAL MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK...WITH RIVER ICE
REMAINING IN PLACE. THE ONLY RIVER POINT CURRENTLY ELEVATED IS AT
EAGLE BRIDGE...WHICH IS AT ACTION STAGE...AND THE RIVER THERE IS
STILL ICE COVERED AS WELL.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE 
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX 
FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...IT LOOKS TO GO OVER TO 
MAINLY RAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE BETWEEN O.50 TO 1.00 
INCH...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. 
THE PRECIP COULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW...ESP IN THE HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS...BEFORE ENDING SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE LATEST MMEFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST RIVERS MAY RISE 1-3 FEET DURING 
THE UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM. IT IS STILL HARD TO SAY IF THIS RAINFALL 
AND THESE RISES WILL BE ENOUGH TO BREAK UP RIVER ICE. TEMPS WILL 
LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S DURING THIS EVENT...SO IT WILL 
NOT BE EXCESSIVELY WARM ALONG WITH THE RAINFALL. IF RIVER ICE WERE 
TO BREAKUP...IT WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN 
CATSKILLS STREAMS...THE SMALLER RIVERS IN DUTCHESS AND COLUMBIA 
COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE HOUSATONIC AND HOOSIC BASINS. AT THIS 
POINT...NO FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS 
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR 
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 
40S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING...SNOW MELT WILL PROBABLY 
FOLLOW A TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN. 

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...KL/NAS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



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