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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 280932
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
430 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE NOR'EASTER POSITIONED IN THE GULF OF MAINE...WILL GRADUALLY 
LOOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD 
IN BRINGING INCREASING SUNSHINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVERHEAD 
TONIGHT BRINGING A VERY COLD NIGHT. IT THEN WILL MOVE TO THE EAST. A 
CLIPPER TYPE LOW WILL BRING A LIGHT SNOWFALL TO AREAS FROM THE 
CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. FURTHER NORTH...MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS 
ARE MORE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IT WILL TURN BITTERLY 
COLD AIR BEHIND THIS CLIPPER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.   

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 430 AM EST...JUST A FEW FLURRIES LEFT ON THE RADAR AS DRIER 
AIR SLOWLY ENTRAINS INTO THE PERIPHERAL OF THE DEPARTING STORM WHICH 
WAS LOCATED IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THE CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE WAS 
RISING AS IT HAS OCCLUDED. 

IF WE WERE TO GET SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES COULD 
DROP SEVERAL DEGREES THROUGH SUNRISE. MORE THAN LIKELY THE CLOUDS 
WILL NOT THIN UNTIL WELL AFTER SUNRISE...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO 
FALL ONLY A LITTLE IF AT ALL. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BE A COLD START 
TO THE DAY. 

THE STORM WILL GRADUALLY LOOSE ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR REGION TODAY AS 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO RECOVER INTO THE LOWER 20S 
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD...TEENS TO NEAR 20 FURTHER 
NORTH. 

A BREEZE FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PICK BACK UP AS THE ATMOSPHERE 
MIXES...AVERAGING 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO PERHAPS 30 MPH IN A FEW 
PLACES. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME MINOR BLOWING OF THE SNOW IN 
OUTLYING AREAS. SNOW BLOWING ACROSS ROADS COULD TURN WET SPOTS INTO 
BLACK ICE...SO CAUTION IS ADVISED IF YOU ENCOUNTER THIS WHILE 
DRIVING OR WALKING.        

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION. THE SKY WILL BE 
MAINLY CLEAR...THE WINDS DIMINISH. IT LOOKS LIKE A FRIGID NIGHT WITH 
NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS. WE BELIEVE THAT THE MAV AND 
EVEN MET GUIDANCE IS NOT COLD ENOUGH ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT 
MUCH OF THE AREA RECEIVED A FRESH SNOW COVER. THEREFORE...WE WENT 
SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN THE COLDEST SET OF AMERICAN MOS 
OUTPUT...AND CLOSER TO THE EVEN COLDER EUROPEAN MOS (ECS).  
THEREFORE EXPECT LOWS AROUND ZERO IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL 
REGION...-5 TO -15 FURTHER NORTH...SINGLE NUMBER SOUTH WHERE 
GENERALLY A LITTLE LESS SNOW WAS ON THE GROUND. 

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEPART. A POTENT CLIPPER TYPE 
SYSTEM...WILL RACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW YORK...WHICH WILL 
ADD A LITTLE MOISTURE TO IT (MAINLY ONTARIO WHICH IS STILL NOT 
FROZEN). SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CLOUDS 
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL HELP BOOST 
TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE 20S IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS...AROUND 30 OR A 
LITTLE HIGHER FROM ALBANY SOUTH. 

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION ALONG WITH A PRETTY GOOD NOSE 
OF A LOW LEVEL JET HELPING TO INDUCE AN IMPRESSIVE RIBBON OF 
ISENTROPIC LIFT THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALL YIELD TO A PERIOD (OR 
PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE). HOWEVER...A FEW 
BANDLETS OF MODERATE SNOW COULD BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE SHIELD. OFTEN 
TIMES...THESE TYPE OF CLIPPERS WITH THEIR SOUTHERLY FLOW...RESULT IN 
SOME LOCAL GEOGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE 
ADIRONDACKS...AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE MOHAWK 
VALLEY...EASTWARD INTO THE SARATOGA REGION. AS A RESULT THERE IS THE 
POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL IN THESE AREAS 
WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE.  

THE CLIPPER WILL DEPART...BUT ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL IS FORECAST TO 
DIG TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY KEEP CLOUDS AND 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND AWHILE ON FRIDAY...PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE 
ACCUMULATION TO MANY MOUNTAIN AREAS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MIGHT 
FOLLOW AS WELL ALSO ADDING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SNOW 
SHOWERS. 

OTHERWISE...IT WILL TURN WINDY. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK 
AROUND 30 IN THE VALLEYS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE HIGH 
TEMPERATURES MIGHT TAKE PLACE A COUPLE HOURS THAN THEY NORMALLY 
DO...THEN BEGIN TO FALL. FRIDAY NIGHT THE WIND WILL PERSIST...ONLY 
SLOWLY DIMINISHING. ANOTHER VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR AIRMASS WILL 
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE SKY SHOULD CLEAR BUT TEMPERATURES WILL 
TUMBLE ONCE MORE. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND ZERO 
IN MOST OF THE VALLEYS...BUT 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY THE ADIRONDACKS. THE COMBINATION OF A 10-15 MPH 
WIND ALONG WITH THESE BITTERLY COLD READINGS COULD PRODUCE DANGEROUS 
WIND CHILLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.      

THE SNOWFALL AND WIND CHILL POTENTIAL WILL BE DISCUSSED IN OUR 
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWO). 

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD YET ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY 
NEXT WEEK.

WE BEGIN THE WEEKEND ON A QUIET YET CHILLY END TO JANUARY WITH A 
NARROW SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CWFA.  HOWEVER...A 
FAST MOVING IMPULSE APPROACHES THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SATURDAY 
NIGHT AS AN ARCTIC SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO UPSTATE NY.  THIS 
MAY TOUGH OFF A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO 
WHERE WE WILL HAVE THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO 
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN DACKS.

THIS FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY INTO THE FIRST DAY OF FEBRUARY 
/SUNDAY/ AND LOSES ITS DEFINITION AS ATTENTION QUICKLY SHIFTS TOWARD 
A DEVELOPING STORM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  A STRONG PV ANOMALY IS 
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES AND OUT 
ONTO THE PLAINS AS THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION 
EJECTS OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN SURFACE 
PRESSURE FALLS AS LATEST 00Z GLOBAL RUNS POINT TOWARD A DEEPENING 
CYCLONE TRACKING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

THERMAL COLUMN APPEARS TO BE COLD FOR A SNOW EVENT WITH THIS SYSTEM 
/THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE THE GGEM WITH A WARMER SOLUTION WITH 
HIGHER QPF VALUES/.  SPEAKING OF QPF/S...BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS AND EVEN 
THE DGEX ARE RATHER HIGH WITH GENERALLY AROUND ONE INCH WATER 
EQUIVALENT. PLUME DIAGRAMS FROM THE GFS...AS ONE WOULD EXPECTED AS 
THE POTENTIAL EVENT IS MANY DAYS AWAY...VARY GREATLY BUT THE 
CONSENSUS IS CLOSE TO THAT ONE INCH WATER EQUIVALENT.  WE WILL 
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL IMPACT MAINLY KPSF AS 
SEEN IN THE CURRENT METARS.  OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS 
THE TAF SITES.  ANY SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY SUNRISE AS HIGHER PRESSURE 
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS DRIER 
AIR AND RISING PRESSURES RETURN. 

NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD STILL BE STEADY AROUND 10 KT MUCH OF 
NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KT 
TOWARD SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PERIODS OF SN. 
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SN. 
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE 
DAYS. 

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY 
IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. 

THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. 

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES 
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED 
BY ICE EFFECTS. 

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/JPV









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