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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 232253
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
655 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED INTO THE CAPITAL REGION. COOLER AIR A FEW 
LINGERING SHOWERS WERE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHILE STRONG TO 
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD STILL FORM SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 
CAPITAL REGION UNTIL 10 PM. AFTER THAT...SHOWERS WILL PERSIST TO THE 
SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE 
WHOLE REGION BY THURSDAY. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY 
WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.    

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 655 PM EDT...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED 
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION AND AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. LAPS 
ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT THE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN KNOCKED DOWN TO 
LESS THAN A 1000 J/KG IN THIS AREA. RADAR TRENDS HAVE WEAKENED 
CONSIDERABLY. SHOULD ONLY HAVE MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS...TAPERING 
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH LITTLE IF 
ANY THUNDER HAPPENING. 

THERE WAS STILL OVER 2000 J/KG WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL 
REGION...SO A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES IN THOSE AREAS 
UNTIL 1000 PM. THERE WAS A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WORKING 
THROUGH THIS AREA...AND ANY OF THESE COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE.  

TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 70S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH 
AND WEST AS THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE COLD FRONT...HAVE WORKED THROUGH 
THE REGION. 

THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM WILL LAG BEHIND...AS THE 
RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET WORKS INTO OUR 
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO LINGER BEHIND THE 
COLD FRONT...AND THERE MIGHT EVEN BE A WEAK SURFACE WAVE WORKING 
ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS ONLY (AS 
THE INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY THEN). 

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT FROM ALBANY 
SOUTHWARD...50S WELL NORTH AND WEST. DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 
50S...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ZONES SHOULD EXIT 
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...A NOTICEABLY DRIER AND 
COOLER AIRMASS WILL INFILTRATE OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL 
SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FROM THE UPPER TEENS CELSIUS FROM LATE 
TODAY...TO AROUND +10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGH 
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER COMPARED TO 
TODAY...GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER 
TERRAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S...SO COMFORTABLE 
LEVEL OF HUMIDITY. 

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH FROM CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. 

THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR CALM AND COOL WITH LOWS DIPPING 
DOWN TO THE LOWER TO MID 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S WELL NORTH AND 
WEST OF ALBANY. PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN THE FOG-PRONE AREAS 
(GENERALLY LOW LYING AREAS NEAR BODIES OF WATER). 

FRIDAY WILL SEE SUNSHINE MIXING WITH FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS. 
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN 
IN THE 50S.  

MAINLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD...40S NORTH. 

SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY...BUT HIGH CLOUDS FROM A DISTURBANCE AND WARM 
AIR ADVECTION WILL MEAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS WILL 
CREEP UP TO AROUND 60...SO A LITTLE MORE HUMID BUT BUT STILL AT 
MODERATE LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES 
AND OHIO VALLEY...AND REMAIN THERE MUST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS AN 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. 

THE INITIAL VORTICITY (MID LEVEL ENERGY) ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH 
WILL APPROACH OUR REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND WARM AIR 
ADVECTION...WILL WORK INTO OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST LATE 
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS 
GUIDANCE INDICATED. A THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS WE HEAD 
TOWARD SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY MIGHT BE LIMITED...THERE 
COULD BE PLENTY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ALOFT...SO WILL MENTION 
THUNDER AS WELL.  

THIS INITIAL SURGE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE ON BY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER OUR 
REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE ON MONDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THAT DAY WILL PROBABLY OFFER SOME 
DRY TIME.

THE TROUGH/UPPER AIR LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...BUT NOT GO 
AWAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE INDICATIONS ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL 
DRYING SHOULD DECREASE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A 
CUTOFF LOW...AND CERTAINLY...THERE COULD ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE (NOT 
DEPICTED AT THIS TIME)...COULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WE WILL KEEP A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON 
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND FOR NOW...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF 
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY. 

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED WILL TREND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS 
THE TROUGH PULLS SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FROM CANADA.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MODERATED THROUGH A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW. LOOK FOR 
HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS...70S HIGHER TERRAIN. 

LOWS WILL IN THE 60S SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHTS...COOLING TO THE 
50S AROUND 60 TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE TAF SITES 
THROUGH 02Z. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE 
WIND GUSTS TO 50KTS AND HAIL AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR MORE. IN 
ADDITION ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND 
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.  

AS OF 21Z...A LINE OF STORM BACKBUILDED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST 
ALMOST TO THE ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. MORE THUNDERSTORMS WERE 
IN SCHOHARIE COUNTY TRACKING NORTHWEST. PLACED A VCTS IN THE ALBANY 
TAF THROUGH 00Z...WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR REDUCED RAIN AND WIND GUSTS 
TO 30KTS. 

THUNDERSTORMS WERE IMPACTING KGFL BUT TEMPERATURES THERE HAD DROPPED 
INTO THE 70S...LOWERING THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS. 

THUNDERSTORMS WERE WORKING TOWARD THE PITTSFIELD AIRPORT AS WELL AS 
KPOU. BOTH SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY STORMS WITHIN THE HOUR. HAVE VCTS 
IN BOTH TAFS...AND OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS AT LEAST TO MVFR (COULD 
EASILY DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR) DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. WIND GUSTS COULD 
REACH 25KTS OR BETTER.     

ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS END...KEEPING VCSH FOR A FEW HOURS FOR 
LINGERING ACTIVITY...BUT LONGER...THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AT KPOU SINCE 
THE FRONT MAY SLOW ITS PROGRESS IN SOUTHERN AREAS.  SOME FOG MAY 
FORM AFTER SOME CLEARING AT KGFL...KALB AND KPSF TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT 
ONLY INDICATING 6SM BR UNTIL WE CAN ANALYZE SHORT TERM TRENDS BEHIND 
THE FRONT AFTER SUNSET.  

AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW...VFR EVERYWHERE...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF 
ANY SHOWERS LINGER AROUND KPOU AFTER 09Z IF THE PROGRESS OF THE 
FRONT SLOWS.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 KT OR LESS COULD BE 
VARIABLE AND GUSTY TO 25 KT OR MORE IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDS 
SHOULD SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10 
KT...THE DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 6 KT AND TREND TOWARD NORTH.  
TOMORROW MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BE NORTH NORTHWEST TO NORTH 
NORTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT.
 
OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. 
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF 
SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 
EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECEIVE A 
QUARTER INCH OR MORE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. SHOWERS COULD LINGER 
SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. 

OTHERWISE...IT WILL TURN LESS HUMID ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASING 
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. DRY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 
SATURDAY WITH THE FORMATION OF DEW EACH NIGHT. 

RH VALUES WILL DIP TO THE 40S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY 30S 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SATURDAY 
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.     

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE SOUTH 5 TO 15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH 
TONIGHT (POSSIBLY A LOT HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS). THE WIND 
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH OR NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WORK ACROSS OUR REGION THIS 
EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT SOUTH AND EAST 
OF ALBANY. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER 0.25 
INCHES...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE A FEW OF 
THUNDERSTORMS (OR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS). PWATS ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS AIRMASS WILL APPROACH TWO INCHES THIS EVENING...BEFORE FALLING 
OFF LATER OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED PONDING OF WATER ON LOW 
LYING AREAS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREA. WILL CONTINUE ENHANCED WORDING 
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. 

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR 
WILL BE USHERED IN. EXPECTED SOME LINGERING SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY 
MORNING AS THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THEN 
LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. 
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD INTO THE SECOND HALF OF 
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...HWJIV/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









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