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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 300220
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1020 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND ON 
TUESDAY...BRINGING SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR. THE COMBINATION OF THIS 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE WEST 
WILL ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAINING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH 
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1020 PM EDT...A SIDE-DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
ADVANCE WESTWARD ACROSS THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME
EVIDENCED BY HIGHER PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
LINE AND SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT. IT WILL TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO
WORK INTO OUR AREA...WITH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EXPERIENCING THE
EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT FIRST NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN ADVANCING WESTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE STREAM OF MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS SURGING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE 
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WILL 
CONTINUE TONIGHT. SIMILAR TO TODAY...THIS CLOUDINESS WILL TEND TO 
THIN AND RECEDE AT TIMES NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY...BUT MOST OF
THE REGION WILL AVERAGE MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR TONIGHT AS LOWER STRATUS
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. ALTHOUGH RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME PRECIP ALOFT
/VIRGA/...THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE TOO DRY TO ALLOW
ANY OF IT TO REACH THE GROUND. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER...WITH LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE BACKDOOR BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY 
TUESDAY...AND INTERACT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THIS WILL RESULT 
IN SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT NO WIDESPREAD PCPN IS 
EXPECTED DUE TO THE WEAKNESS OF BOTH SYSTEMS. HAVE ONLY FORECAST 20 
TO 40 PERCENT POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS 
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOSTLY 
CLOUDY SKIES ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL 
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY 
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER 
THE SOUTHEAST AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE 
DECREASING TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS TUESDAY AND 
WEDNESDAY WILL BE BETWEEN 65 AND 75. LOWS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY 
NIGHTS WILL BE BETWEEN 45 AND 55.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY WITH OUR REGION UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WITH A SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER 
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES PROVIDING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. SO DRY 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL. 
ON FRIDAY A POTENT UPPER TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT 
LAKES...WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE IN SOUTHEAST CANADA. WITH THE 
SURFACE RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ESPECIALLY LATE IN 
THE DAY. 12Z GFS/ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WITH HOLDING OFF MUCH OF THE 
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WILL 
ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 
SUNSET.

THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE 
RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER 
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSS OUR REGION. GOOD MOISTURE 
INFLUX WITH 40+ KT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERN FLOW ALONG WITH GUIDANCE 
INDICATING A POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD 
FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH...WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL. AS OF NOW 
IT LOOKS LIKE A AROUND 0.50-1.00 INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR BUT DUE TO 
THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM GREATER AMOUNTS ARE NOT 
LIKELY. RAINFALL SHOULD TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY...WITH SOME TIMING 
DIFFERENCES NOTED IN MODELS. AT LEAST THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY MAY 
END UP DRYING...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY WESTWARD.

A MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURE REGIME WILL THEN SET UP BEHIND THE COLD 
FRONT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON 
MONDAY...AS A PATTERN SHIFT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH A LONG WAVE 
TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. FROM SUNDAY THROUGH 
MONDAY...THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AS 
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCES WILL 
BE OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY WHERE LAKE 
ENHANCED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE DUE TO LAKE-AIR TEMP 
DIFFERENTIALS INCREASING WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVING IN.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TAF SITES FROM THE EAST THIS
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TAF SITES
BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR AN ONSHORE FLOW OF COOL AND
MOIST AIR TO GRADUALLY ADVECT IN FROM EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE TERMINALS...WITH
SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN THIS CLOUD DECK AT KGFL WHERE SOME FOG HAS
ALREADY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL MENTION PREVAILING MVFR
WITH OCCASIONAL IFR AT KGFL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND PROVIDES SOME MIXING WHICH SHOULD
INHIBIT THE FOG. AS THE FRONT PUSHES WESTWARD ACROSS THE
TERMINALS...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO MVFR RANGE AND POSSIBLY
EVEN IFR LEVELS LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATION
SITE KPSF.

CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN MVFR RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING...AND POSSIBLY WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS ONSHORE FROM A E-SE DIRECTION. BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR
CIGS PERSISTING WILL BE AT KPSF.

WINDS WILL BE INITIALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...SHIFTING TO THE
EAST AROUND 5 KT OVERNIGHT...THEN EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL RECOVER TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD 
DEW FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 60 TO 70 PERCENT ON TUESDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW RAIN SHOWERS AROUND...MAINLY FOR
WESTERN/SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. S-SE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 5
TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK. THE ONLY 
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL COME AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE 
AREA AND STALLS ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. WITH THIS 
BOUNDARY AROUND...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE 
REGION...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WILL HAVE LITTLE OR 
NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE 
RUNNING BELOW NORMAL...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST 
OF THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM







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