000
FXUS61 KALY 250538
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL PROMOTE COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
A RETURN OF WARMER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...RAIN CONTINUES TO IMPACT MOST OF THE FORECAST 
AREA ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL 
REGION. NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO 
REINSTATE CHILLY TEMPERATURES DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

LOW TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY OVER THE 
CATSKILLS WHERE OBSERVATIONS IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS WHERE 
ALREADY IN THE UPPER 30S AND EVEN SOME VALUES IN THE MID 30S. 
HOWEVER...AS THE CAA BECOMES LESS DOMINANT THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT 
INTO TOMORROW MORNING...WE DO NOT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH 
FURTHER.  PER THE DUAL POL DATA...COULD BE SOME WINTRY MIXTURE AT 
AND ABOVE 1500 FEET.

FAVORABLE QG DYNAMICS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW OBTAINS A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT WITH HEIGHT. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HELPING TO
TRANSPORT ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
VIA A COLD CONVEYOR BELT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO SYNOPTIC
FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF AN
INCH...WITH RAINFALL RATES AGAIN AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH PER
HOUR.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE 12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT HANDLING 
THE PROGRESSION/EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW/COASTAL LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HAVE LARGELY TAKEN A BLENDED 
APPROACH DURING THIS TIME FRAME...LEANING TOWARDS THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF. 

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MAINTAINS A
NEGATIVE TILT SATURDAY...COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE OFF
THE MASSACHUSETTS COAST AIDED BY A WEAK PV LOBE AND FAVORABLE QG
DYNAMICS. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL ACT IN TANDEM TO ENHANCE
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD CONVEYOR BELT. THIS
CONVEYOR BELT WILL HELP THROW BACK ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AND PROMOTE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT. 

THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY 
NIGHT...BECOMING VERTICALLY-STACKED WITH THE COASTAL LOW. THESE 
FEATURES WILL LIFT OUT OF THE REGION FOR SUNDAY...WITH SOME 
LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT 
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST. QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WILL RANGE FROM HALF AN INCH IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS TO TWO INCHES ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT. SEE THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT
HOWEVER...AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MEMORIAL DAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL FEEL MORE LIKE NOVEMBER AS HIGHS STRUGGLE 
TO MAKE IT INTO THE MID 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE 
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS WILL RETURN 
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR MEMORIAL DAY GENERALLY IN LOW 60S TO LOW 
70S. LOWS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 
LOW 30S TO LOW 40S.

WINDS WILL BE BREEZY DURING THE WEEKEND...AS A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5-10 MPH FOR MONDAY.

WITH LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN PORTIONS 
OF THE ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...FROST ADVISORIES MAY 
BE NEEDED AND WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HWO AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A WARMING TREND WITH A RETURN TO 
SEASONABLE TEMPS AT THE START...AND EVENTUALLY WELL ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPS BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. 

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO 
TUESDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. STILL COOL MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS 
IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...BUT TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL 
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. 

THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A WARM 
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN 
CLOUDS WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT...DECREASING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THURSDAY AS 
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. FAIR AND VERY WARM WEATHER 
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES 
HOLD. 

LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS 
WEDNESDAY IN THE LOW OR MID 70S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT 50 TO 60. 
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN 
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COASTAL STORM WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF RAIN FOR THE 
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON 
SATURDAY. STEADY RAIN IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE NORMAL TERMINALS OF 
KGFL/KALB/KPSF...WITH MORE SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN FURTHER SOUTH 
AROUND KPOU. WHILE THE STEADY RAIN MAY MOVE AWAY FROM KALB/KPSF OVER 
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...IT LOOKS TO REDEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK AND 
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS AT ALL 
SITES...BEFORE RETURNING TO A MORE SHOWERY COVERAGE FOR LATE IN THE 
DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

FLYING CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY VFR/MVFR AT THE CURRENT TIME. IT 
LOOKS LIKE FLYING CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR WITHIN THE STEADIER 
RAINFALL THIS MORNING. WHILE IFR CONDITIONS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED 
OUT...AT THIS POINT...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WOULD 
SUGGEST THAT FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY ONLY LOWER TO MVFR 
LEVELS. THE TERMINAL WITH THE BEST CHC OF LOWERING TO IFR /OR NEAR 
IFR CONDITIONS/ WOULD BE KPSF.

THE FLOW AROUND THE STORM WILL MAKE FOR GUSTY N-NW WINDS...ESP FOR 
THE AFTN AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS WILL 
BE POSSIBLE...ESP FOR KALB.

OUTLOOK... 
SAT NIGHT-SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS. 
SUN NIGHT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX. 
WED...VFR. MVFR PSBL WITH CHC PM SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND 
COAST WILL PROMOTE SHOWERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL 
BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE AN 
ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT 
WEEK.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY AND GUSTY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GENERALLY 
10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5-10 MPH 
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RH LEVELS DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WILL BE ABOVE 30 
PERCENT...WITH RH LEVELS DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON 
BETWEEN 60-80 PERCENT AND NORMAL OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES BETWEEN 80-100 
PERCENT. RH LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 35-55 PERCENT 
RANGE WITH NORMAL OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES BETWEEN 80-100 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND 
COAST WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STRATIFORM RAIN THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING THAT WILL BRING A HALF INCH TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS NORTH AND EAST.

ALTHOUGH THIS RAINFALL WILL COME ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS FROM 
RECENT HEAVY/TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF 
DAYS...RAINFALL RATES OF ONLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH PER HOUR 
WILL ALLOW LOCAL WATERSHEDS ENOUGH TIME TO RECOVER WITH ONLY MODEST 
WITHIN BANK RISES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL
NEAR TERM...BGM/IRL/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER


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