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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 041729
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
129 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RAIN FREE AND WARM HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR  
THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND 
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY 
SKIES...SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG...AND ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 129 PM EDT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM
SE QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER
THE ERN CONUS. LOCATIONS NW OF THE CAPITAL REGION CONTINUE TO HAVE
SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. FROM THE CAPITAL REGION/SRN
VT/NRN CATSKILLS SOUTH AND EAST...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT LOW STRATUS CONTINUES
TO ERODE OVER WRN NEW ENGLAND...THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND ERN
CATSKILLS DUE TO THE SUNSHINE...BETTER MIXING...AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING WITH THE E-NE FLOW /ESPECIALLY IN THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY/.

DESPITE INTERVALS OF MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN...TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM
INTO THE M70S TO L80S IN THESE AREAS. SFC DEWPTS CONTINUE TO LOWER
INTO THE M50S TO L60S. WE HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY
GRIDS BASED ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE...AND WE HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED THE T/TD/RH/APPARENT TEMPS BASED ON THE RTMA/OBSERVATIONS
TRENDS. OVERALL...IS IT LESS HUMID THAN YESTERDAY TO CLOSE OUT THE
WORK WEEK BEFORE THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. TEMPS WILL STILL RUN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR THE UNOFFICIAL END OF SUMMER HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE PATTERN
WILL RESEMBLE THAT OF JULY AS RIDGE BUILDS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. H500 HEIGHTS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE 1-2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH 590DM+ HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH FLATTENS A BIT INTO LABOR DAY. NEVERTHELESS...COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND FORECAST MIXING LAYER
HEIGHTS AOA H850 WHERE NCEP MODEL SUITE ALONG WITH INTERNATIONAL
GUIDANCE SHOW A 1-2 DEGREE INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM SHOULD EQUATE TO AVERAGE VALUES OF 80-85F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND 75-80F FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE MAINLY INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH PATCHY FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL CONTINUE 
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WITH BOTH 850 HPA TEMPS AND 500 HPA 
HEIGHTS 1 TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL...SFC TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE 
NORMAL FOR MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO 
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW SPOTS IN 
THE HUDSON VALLEY RIGHT AROUND 90. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS 
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD...WITH 
MOST PLACES IN THE 60S. IT WILL FEEL STICKY AT TIMES...ESP TOWARDS 
MIDWEEK..WHEN DEWPOINT READINGS WILL REACH INTO THE MID 60S F.

EVENTUALLY...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL WORK TOWARDS THE REGION...AND 
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL START TO FALL...AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS 
EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE. ALTHOUGH WESTERN AREAS MAY SEE A SHOWER/TSTM 
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTN/NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE BROAD W-SW 
FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THE MAIN THREAT FOR 
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT...WHICH 
WILL OCCUR SOMETIME LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. HIGHEST 
POPS LOOK TO BE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL 
DON/T AGREE ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...WILL GO 
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THURSDAY WITH THE EXPECTED 
CLOUDS/PRECIP AROUND.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...COOLER AND DRIER WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE 
REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...THOUGH...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONT 
LINGERING NEARBY...AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD RIDE ALONG IT. 
TEMPS MAY FINALLY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 
70S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS 
MORNING...ALLOWED FOR LESS HUMID AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE 
REGION. 

BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE 
OVER EASTERN NY ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SOME LOW 
STRATUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL N-
NE FLOW...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF THIS 
MORNING. OTHERWISE SCT CIGS AROUND 3-4 KFT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR 
KALB/KPOU THIS MORNING...WITH CLEAR SKIES AT KGFL. A LIGHT N-NE 
WINDS OF AROUND 5 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

EVENTUALLY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW 
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO CLEAR SKIES OUT BY LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS 
EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS. SOME RADIATIONAL FOG 
MAY DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR KGFL/KPSF WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND 
CALM WINDS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NT - TUE NT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. 
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...AND DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ANOTHER EXCELLENT RECOVERY OF 95 TO 100 PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION
BY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...AND
BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TOWARD THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



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