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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 301129
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
645 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY 
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE 
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID DECK OF CLOUDS HOLDING ON OVER MOST OF AREA...THESE CLOUDS ARE 
EXPECTED DECREASE THIS MORNING. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER
TO ADDRESS THIS...PLUS UPDATED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. 
OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BUT NOT AS COOL AS TUESDAY AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDER IS EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN CANADA. THE CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY FOR AREAS TO THE WEST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO FALL ABOUT
5 DEGREES SHORT NORMAL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING 
AND THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD 
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE ROTATES 
ABOUT THE UPPER LOW. THIS PIECE OF ENERGY WILL CAUSE THE UPPER 
LOW TO ALSO SHIFT SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SHORT WAVE AND HAS IT MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL BE DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. IT WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORT WAVE A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL 
DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO LIFTS NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMER DAY...HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY LEVELS. WITH
THE HEATING OF THE DAY CAN NOT RULE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE 
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE GENERAL SETUP THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL 
FEATURE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH 
THE TROUGH AXIS SITUATED TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA OVER THE GREAT 
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...AND A STRONG RIDGE SITUATED EAST OF THE AREA 
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERSISTENTLY MOIST 
S-SW FLOW OF AIR OVER THE REGION.

PWAT VALUES WILL BE RISING OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH 
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS HAVING VALUES BETWEEN 1.50-1.90 INCHES BY 
LATE SUNDAY. WITH A NEARBY STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST 
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND 
EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER/TSTM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY 
DOWNPOURS. THUNDER MAY NOT BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD...DUE TO LIMITED 
INSTABILITY THANKS TO ALL THE CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN 
SOMEWHAT DUE TO CLOUDS/POSSIBLE PRECIP....WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S 
TO NEAR 80...AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED JUST OFF THE EASTERN 
SEABOARD FOR MON/TUESDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS 
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. EVENTUALLY...THE TROUGH 
TO OUR WEST WILL START TO WEAKEN...AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL 
START TO BECOME MORE ZONAL TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT 
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVENTUALLY...THIS FRONT 
WILL CLEAR OUR AREA...AND ALLOWING FOR HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DECREASE 
SOMEWHAT.  WHILE THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 
THE MID WEEK PERIOD...THIS SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN 
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP BY A FEW DEGREES...WITH LOW 80S FOR 
VALLEY AREAS...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S...BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1130Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL 
TERMINALS WITH BKN-OVC CIGS AT 7-9 KFT AND NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE 
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WEAK 
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH OVER 
SOUTHERN CANADA MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF JUST SCT CLOUDS BY LATER THIS 
MORNING...DIURNAL CU/STRATOCU AT 5-7 KFT WILL DEVELOP...ALLOWING FOR 
BKN CIGS TO RETURN TO MOST SITES BY THE EARLY TO MID AFTN HOURS. 
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF LIGHT RAIN SHOWER...BUT COVERAGE 
LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SW WINDS WILL 
BE LIGHT...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS.

BKN CIGS LOOK TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS IN PLACE 
WILL PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL FOG FROM OCCURRING...WITH CONTINUED VFR 
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX. 
FRI-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION ABOUT A LARGE LOW IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY 
AND THURSDAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON THURSDAY DUE 
TO A STRONGER DISTURBANCE. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE OVER EASTERN CANADA AS
SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT AND WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEEKEND SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA










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