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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 260544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1244 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN PLACE...CLOUDS WILL 
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. A HIGH IMPACT COASTAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO 
AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING  
ACCUMULATING SNOW...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE HEAVY...ACROSS EASTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA. COLD WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE STORM...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL SNOW POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...STILL A LITTLE NORTHWEST WIND MAINLY EAST OF THE 
HUDSON VALLEY...WITH LITTLE OR NO WIND ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WERE 
DROPPING BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THEY COULD AS THE HIGH CLOUDS FROM 
THE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM SYSTEM WERE RACING IN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL 
JET. 

VERY LITTLE TO CHANGE WITH UPDATE...JUST TWEAKING THE HOURLY GRIDS 
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.  

DESPITE THESE CLOUDS...IT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN 
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ACROSS MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. 
SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS LOOK TO OCCUR FOR THE ADIRONDACKS. MOST 
AREAS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT NOR'EASTER TO IMPACT REGION...WITH SNOWFALL 
ACCUMULATIONS OF A FOOT PLUS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
SOUTH AND EAST.  

LITCHFIELD COUNTY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING. LOOKING 
FOR TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 20 TO 30 INCHES ALONG WITH 
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AND NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 
20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. 

THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO WARNING...EXPECT FOR 
NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY WHICH REMAINS A WATCH. 

THE WARNING HAS BEEN SEGMENTED INTO TWO PARTS. PART ONE IS FOR 
EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS... BERKSHIRES...AND 
SOUTHERN VERMONT WHERE 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG BLOWING 
AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH AND 
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. PART TWO IS FOR THE GREATER CAPITAL 
REGION...HELDERBERGS...SCHOHARIE COUNTY...SARATOGA REGION...GLENS 
FALLS AREA AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY FOR 8 TO 14 INCHES.

ALONG WITH NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY STILL IN A WATCH WE HAVE ADDED 
FULTON AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES. 

RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WITH OCCUR MONDAY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AS NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY PHASES INTO THE SYSTEM WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN INTENSE
DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW AND KEEPING IT CLOSER TO THE COAST AS
WELL AS SLOWING IT MOVEMENT. THE LOW BECOME IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY AND WOBBLE NEAR MONT AUK POINT/CAPE COD TUESDAY.

THERE IS A LOT OF MOISTURE/QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM. HAVE USED THE QPF
GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE FORECAST. THIS 
GIVES US AROUND 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD...AN INCH INTO 
THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH AMOUNTS DROPPING 
OFF AS YOU HEAD NORTHWEST WITH AROUND A QUARTER INCHES ACROSS 
NORTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES. ALL SNOW FOR THIS 
STORM...WITH FAIRLY HIGH RATIOS OF AROUND 14:1 TO 15:1.  

SNOWFALL GRADIENT WITH THIS STORM WILL BE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. 
A GRAPHIC OF OUR FORECAST TOTAL SNOWFALL IS AVAILABLE ON OUR WEB 
PAGE UNDER NEWS HEADLINES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD EXPECTED WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR 
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE 
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD 
WILL FEATURE QUIET CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE POWERFUL NOR'EASTER 
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT 
IN A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH 
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S. 
FOR COLLABORATION...LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE CURRENTLY 
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE...BUT WITH A RECENT 
FRESH AND DEEP SNOWPACK LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE WITH LIGHT 
WINDS...ACTUAL LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH 
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY...ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO ANOTHER 
CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO IMPACT THE 
FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THURSDAY 
INTO FRIDAY. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY ANOTHER 
POTENT PV ANOMALY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AS IT DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM 
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE ARE HINTS IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE 
OF YET ANOTHER COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC 
COAST...AND TRACKING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS ENERGY FROM THE 
CLIPPER TRANSFERS TO THE COASTAL LOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 

WHILE THERE ARE SIGNALS OF COASTAL DEVELOPMENT...IT IS STILL SEVERAL 
DAYS OUT WITH A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER COASTAL 
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR...AND HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST IF IT DOES. AT 
THE VERY LEAST...A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE SNOW 
ACCUMULATIONS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY 
WITH ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT POSSIBLE IF A COASTAL LOW WERE TO 
ACTUALLY DEVELOP. 

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AS 
STRONG AS THE NOREASTER AFFECTING THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM 
PERIODS...AS THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATED WITH 
LITTLE...IF ANY SOUTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM 
BEARS WATCHING AND WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER 
OUTLOOK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 20S TO 
LOW 30S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID 
TEENS TO LOW 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BEHIND THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM THAT MAY 
AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL BE 
UNDERNEATH A DEAMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED PIECES OF 
WEAK ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT. FOR THE WEEKEND...SATURDAY LOOKS TO 
BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO RIDGE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. A 
WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY 
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE 
DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS WITH LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT RANGING 
FROM 10 BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT N-NE WINDS
WILL BE EVOLVING OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL
LOWER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH NEAR 10 KFT AFTER SUNRISE...AND BECOME
BKN-OVC AT 4-6 KFT BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.

SNOW LOOK TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH A SHORT 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR
SNOW...SNOW WILL BECOME IFR AT ALL SITES. MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED BY SUNSET AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
FOR KPOU-KPSF MON NIGHT. NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE DAY AND START TO BECOME GUSTY AT KPOU TOWARDS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE SN.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE 
WEEK. THE PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. 
A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY ACROSS 
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES 
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED 
BY ICE EFFECTS. 

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST 
     WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST 
     WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY 
     NIGHT FOR NYZ039-040-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST 
     WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST 
     WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA


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