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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 010443
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1243 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WILL 
PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WELL EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. 
THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN 
SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TURNING TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. COLD...WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. AFTER A COLD START...MONDAY SHOULD BE FAIR
WITH MODERATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE REACHED AS FAR NORTH AS THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND BERKSHIRE COUNTY. HAVE RAINSED POPS OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT AND REDUCED POPS OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS WERE RADAR LOOPS SHOW LITTLE ACTIVITY. HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT TEMPS UPWARD BY 2 TO 3 DEGREES IN ORDER TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS. CURRENT LOW TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SAT-SAT NT...DESPITE MODEL GUIDANCE INSISTING ON MOST OF THE 
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE STORM SYSTEM 
REMAINING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION...STILL ADMITTEDLY NOT 
OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST SOME BANDS OF PRECIP APPROACH AND 
POSSIBLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF AT LEAST SOUTHERN VT AND WESTERN MA LATE 
SAT AFTN INTO SUN AM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS 4 DISTINCT 
SHORTWAVES...WITH THE MAIN FEATURE CURRENTLY TRANSLATING SOUTHWARD 
FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND YET ANOTHER FAST MOVING IMPULSE RACING SE 
INTO NW ONTARIO. IT IS THIS LAST FEATURE...IN NW ONTARIO...THAT HAS 
SOME POTENTIAL TO PULL THINGS SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST THAN CURRENT 
MODELS INDICATE. AT THE VERY LEAST...EXPECT SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO 
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING SATURDAY...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON 
HOURS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW 
ENGLAND AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. THEN...AS THE LOW RAPIDLY 
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...CURRENT PROJECTIONS
INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE STEADIER PRECIP REMAINS CONFINED CLOSER
TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A LOW
PROBABILITY THAT A BAND OF STEADIER PRECIP ADVANCES NORTHWEST OR
WEST AROUND THE THE DEVELOPING LOW...ESP LATE SAT NT OR EARLY
SUNDAY. SO...WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WELL INTO
SAT NT...DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHC ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE
TO VERY CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR TRENDS...AND ALSO NEAR TERM FORECAST
GUIDANCE FROM THE RAP/HRRR...WHICH MAY GIVE SOME NEAR- TO SHORT-
TERM HINTS THAT PRECIP MAY BE TRENDING FARTHER N AND W. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN IN VALLEYS THROUGH SAT...WITH SOME
SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LATE IN THE DAY...ESP
ELEVATIONS GREATER THAN 1500 FT. THEN...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
DYNAMICAL COOLING CAN OCCUR...RAIN AND OR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS ALL ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1000 FT SAT
EVENING...AND PERHAPS EVEN IN VALLEY AREAS LATER SAT NT. CURRENT
GRIDDED DATABASE INCLUDES SOME MINOR SNOWFALL ACCUMS OF UP TO AN
INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND
ALSO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...BY SUNRISE SUNDAY.
ALSO...UP TO ONE HALF INCH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. HOWEVER...AGAIN...THERE REMAINS A SMALL PROBABILITY
THAT GREATER AMTS COULD OCCUR...AT LEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT/WESTERN MA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN LITCHFIELD CO IF
THE PRECIP TRENDS FARTHER WEST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS 
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS FOR 
SAT...THEN FALL INTO THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR SAT NT IN VALLEYS...WITH 
POSSIBLY SOME 20S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BRISK NORTH WINDS WILL 
DEVELOP SAT AFTN INTO SAT NT...AND MAY GUST TO 25-30 MPH...ESP IN 
SOME N/S ORIENTED VALLEYS.

SUN-MON...AFTER ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF SUN AM...WITH 
CLEARING BY AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD BE WINDY AND COLD SUNDAY...WITH 
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN VALLEYS...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR 
HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS MAY STILL GUST TO 35-45 MPH 
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA AND THE TACONICS...AND 
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS...AND 
25-35 MPH ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 40S IN 
VALLEYS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY 45-50 IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON 
VALLEY...WITH MAINLY 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CLEAR 
SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS LATE SUN NT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH 
THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE FALL SEASON...GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH 
SOME TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MAX TEMPS ON MON 
SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN VALLEYS...AND LOWER/MID 
40S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SUN NT-MON SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY 
CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY CLOUDS COULD PASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF 
THE CATSKILLS LATE SUN NT/EARLY MON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO START THE 
EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER FOR MON NIGHT INTO 
TUESDAY. MIN TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE CHILLY FOR MON NIGHT WITH 
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S...BUT LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH 
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 50S.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO 
THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN SHOWERS 
AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE CLOUDS AND 
POSSIBLE PRECIP...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN RECENT 
NIGHTS...WITH MAINLY 40S ACROSS THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE 
IN THE 50S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...COOLER AIR WILL POUR INTO 
THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING 
CYCLONIC FLOW SHOWERS OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO 
FRIDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES TURNING COOLER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW AT THE HUDSON
VALLEY TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A CEILING BETWEEN 3000
FEET AND 5000 FEET. VFR BECOMING MVFR IS EXPECTED AT KPSF AS THE
CEILING LOWERS TO AROUND 15OO FT MSL LATER SATURDAY. AFTER
02Z...SOME SHOWERS COULD BEGIN TO APPROACH THE KPOU AREA AND
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ALL TAF SITES HAVE
A THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD EXCEPT AT KPSF WHERE THEY ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MVFR
LATER SATURDAY.

WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AT LESS
THAN 10 KT...THEN WINDS INCREASE TO 10 TO 15KT FROM THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 31.0  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL 
DIVE TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND PHASE WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE 
OFFSHORE. THE NET RESULT OF THIS WILL BE ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN 
THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...TURNING 
TO SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS. A POWERFUL STORM OFFSHORE WILL DRIVE THE COLDEST AIRMASS 
OF THE SEASON OVER US BY SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. 

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRODUCES SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN 
AVERAGE AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 
EARLY SUNDAY. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT 
SNOW. 

DRY WEATHER SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO BIG 
PRECIPITATION MAKERS IN SIGHT.   

RIVER LEVELS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/KL
NEAR TERM...SND/KL/GJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...SND/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL







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