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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 202343
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
743 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL HELP WARM TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE 
NORMAL TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE ASSOCIATED 
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY... BRINGING SOME 
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. COOLER AND BRISK CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF 
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOST 
OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES DURING THE 
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE 
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 743 PM EDT...MAIN CHANGE FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE WAS TO
INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE RANGE FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A DISTURBANCE AND A POCKET OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE
HRRR AND LOCAL HI RES WRF AND EVEN 12KM NAM INDICATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING WITH PERHAPS A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER. CLOUDS
WILL ALSO BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK
DEVELOPS SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT WITH A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED
DUE TO THE PERSISTENT GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT TEMPS
WILL BE MILD AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE 50S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS/DRIZZLE LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO
ATLANTIC MOISTURE MOVING INTO THAT REGION IN THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST DUE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE OF 
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THE 
AFTERNOON AND EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION 
OF THE FORECAST AREA...SHOWERS MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING. 
DURING THIS PERIOD...LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST 
FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...AROUND 50 
PERCENT POPS OVER THE CENTRAL THIRD...THEN ONLY 25 TO 35 PERCENT 
POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIRD. 

POPS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT 15 TO 40 
PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO LINGER THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES THROUGH. MOST OF THE REGION FROM THE 
HUDSON VALLEY EAST IS FORECAST TO BE DRY MONDAY AFTN...WITH A 20 TO 
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. 

AS ANOTHER SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE IN MONDAY 
NIGHT...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR.

A VERY MILD SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 
LOWER 80S. STILL MILD SUNDAY NIGHT BECAUSE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH 
LATE AND TEMPS DO NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO DROP THAT MUCH...LOWS WILL BE 
IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. THE BRUNT OF THE COLDER AIR ARRIVES ON 
MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S AND A GUSTY NORTHWEST 
WIND. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE 35 TO 45.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF 
DRY WEATHER AS A SPRAWLING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITS ACROSS THE 
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE 
EXITING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH AN EXPANSIVE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE 
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. OTHER THAN SOME 
EARLY MORNING CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY THE REST OF THE 
DAY LOOKS TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH CYCLONIC FLOW LINGERING ACROSS 
THE REGION.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY THE 
AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE 
REGION. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL STAY THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE 
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A SEVERAL-DAY STRETCH OF GORGEOUS MILD WEATHER 
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE 
IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S 
TO THE LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT
AS A LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK DEVELOPS DUE TO MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
REGIME. CIGS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR THEN EVENTUALLY IFR BEFORE
DAYBREAK. A DISTURBANCE GRAZING AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF ALBANY
OVERNIGHT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
TO THE KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE VCSH TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. CIGS
EXPECTED TO RISE BACK TO MVFR THEN EVENTUALLY VFR RANGE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS SUNDAY
EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KT...BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING...SO EXPECT RH VALUES TO 
REMAIN ABOVE 50 PERCENT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. 

THE SHOWER POTENTIAL INCREASES ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. 

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. 
WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME 
GUSTS OVER 25 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO GENERALLY BE A 
TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH 
ACROSS ADIRONDACKS

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM







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