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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 280308
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1008 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE FOR MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1015 PM EST...SKIES REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY...WHERE SOME OCCASIONAL CLOUDS AND SOME FLURRIES PERSIST.
IT APPEARS THAT THESE CLOUDS/FLURRIES WILL LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.

WINDS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY BRISK WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES...WHERE SOME GUSTS
HAVE BEEN REACHING INTO THE 20-25 MPH RANGE. THESE WINDS SHOULD
SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE ZERO TO 10 BELOW RANGE
THROUGH THE REGION...COLDEST ACROSS THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON
SATURDAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE 10 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE.

ON SUNDAY CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE WITH SNOW ARRIVING LATE IN
THE DAY IN MOST AREAS AS A COLD FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE...WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING EAST FROM THE
MIDWEST. SUNDAY WILL START OFF DRY WITH JUST SOME INCREASING CLOUDS...
WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL BEGINNING IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOWFALL WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION BY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SUN
NIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE SHIFTS TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.
SNOWFALL LOOKS TO BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH QPF
AMOUNTS GENERALLY BTWN 0.20 TO 0.40 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER TO JUST SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED EXTENDED FORECAST IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID WEEK WITH 
A BRIEF BREAK TO MILDER TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PCPN FOR WED...BEFORE 
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN.  

THE LONG TERM OPENS WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE CANADIAN 
MARITIMES.  HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND MID 
ATLANTIC STATES.  COLD...BRISK...AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL 
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  H850 TEMPS LOWER TO -15C TO -18C 
EARLY IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN WARM ADVECTION STARTS TOWARDS 
DAYBREAK WITH A SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS.  LOWS MONDAY 
NIGHT WILL BE ZERO TO 5 BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS...AND SINGLE DIGITS 
OVER THE REST OF THE FCST AREA.  

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...SOME WEAK RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE 
NORTHEAST...AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE N-CNTRL PLAINS.  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UPSTREAM OF THE FCST AREA WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE 
TUE PM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT TO MOVE INTO THE CNTRL MS RIVER 
VALLEY...AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  INITIALLY THE DAY WILL 
START OUT DRY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE AFTERNOON 
WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TO 
THE SYSTEM.  THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS MEAN ARE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH 
THE ONSET OF THE PCPN.  SOME CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN THE FCST BTWN 
21Z TUE TO 00Z WED. 

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A PATTERN 
BREAKER COMPARED TO THE LAST 6 WEEKS OR SO...WHERE LOW PRESSURE WILL 
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE FCST AREA.  THIS WILL ALLOW WARM AIR TO 
OVERRIDE THE SUBFREEZING AIR FOR A PERIOD OF MIXED PCPN.  FAIRLY 
CONFIDENT SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN TUE NIGHT 
DUE TO MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CRITICAL THICKNESS PROFILES FROM THE 
GFS/ECMWF.  THE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL 
FOCUS THE PCPN ALONG WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THE S/SW LLJ AT 
H850 DOES INCREASE TO 50-75+ KTS WED MORNING WITH TEMPS RISING TO +3 
TO +8C ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. IT WILL ALSO BE BREEZY. 
 
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER IN TIME FOR THIS TIME 
FRAME. THE AMOUNTS OF SLEET...ICE AND SNOW...ARE DIFFICULT TO 
DETERMINE AT THIS POINT...AND THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW QUICK THE 
MIXED PCPN TRANSITIONS TO RAIN.  THE LATEST GEFS PLUME FOR ALY SHOW 
MOST OF THE MEMBERS INDICATING A TRANSITION TO RAINFALL WITH A QUITE 
A SPREAD IN THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM A FEW TENTHS TO AN INCH PLUS.  A 
TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE M30S TO 
M40S.  THE SNOWPACK SHOULD ABSORB MOST OF THE RAINFALL...BUT ICE 
BREAK UP WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

WED NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TO THE CYCLONE SWINGS THROUGH WITH A 
TRANSITION OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS.  SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS 
ARE POSSIBLE.  LOWS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS TO M20S.  

THU TO FRI...NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 
CYCLONIC FLOW DUE TO THE RE-ESTABLISHED LONG-WAVE TROUGH.  SOME 
ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THU WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS 
PASSAGE.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS FRIGID AS PREVIOUS 
WITH WEEKS WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S ON THU...AND TEENS AND 20S 
ON FRIDAY.  LOWS WILL BE  IN SINGLE DIGITS THU NIGHT...AND ZERO TO 5 
BELOW OVER THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINLY BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ENDING AT
00Z/SUN. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO MUCH OF
SATURDAY...WITH JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OCCASIONALLY PASSING
ACROSS KPOU AND POSSIBLY KPSF.

WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 MPH WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE
BETWEEN 01Z-03Z/SAT AT MOST TAF SITES. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME WEST
TO NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT BY MID MORNING SATURDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. 
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUN NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN LIKELY. 
MON: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHC SN MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. 
TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SN IN THE AFTERNOON.
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. MIXED PCPN TO RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
ON WEDNESDAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ON SUNDAY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS LIGHT SNOW WILL HAVE NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA
WATERWAYS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT ON MONDAY MORNING...WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND/OR RAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES MAY BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY FOR A FEW AREAS...BEFORE ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS SETTLES IN
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS
IN PLACE...ICE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES...AND PONDS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/11
NEAR TERM...KL/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS/11
LONG TERM...IAA/WASULA
AVIATION...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/11



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