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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 221809
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
109 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME VERY 
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW TODAY. AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT TO THE WEST WILL 
ALLOW FOR A WINTRY MIX CHANGING TO RAIN FOR TONIGHT INTO 
TOMORROW.  ON WEDNESDAY...A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE TENNESSEE 
VALLEY AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES NORTH TO THE OTTAWA VALLEY. 
IT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS 
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SHOWERS FOR 
CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM EST...OUR REGION IS IN A BROAD S-SW FLOW
ALOFT...THANKS TO A BUILDING RIDGE JUST OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...AND DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
CONUS. A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING WITHIN THE BROAD
SW FLOW AT 500 HPA...ALLOWING FOR SOME WEAK LIFT OVER OUR AREA.

KENX RADAR SHOWS VERY LIGHT AND SPOTTY REFLECTIVITY RETURNS...BUT
OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAM IMAGERY SHOWS SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW IS
OCCURRING IN THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION AND PARTS OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY AS WELL AS THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. WILL ALLOW LOW POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW/RAIN MIX
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AS THIS MAY CONTINUE WITHIN THE BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED TO JUST
A COATING...AS SNOW WON/T BE PERSISTENT OR HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
MUCH MORE THAN THAT.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...AND WITH
THE PROSPECTS FOR LITTLE TO NO SUN AGAIN TODAY...AND LIGHT
WINDS...HIGHS IN THE 30S.

SOME ADDITIONAL SPOTTY LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE INTO
THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
ANOTHER UPSTREAM STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM ADVECTION AND BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW VERY GRADUALLY
INCREASES AS THE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AFFECTS OUR
REGION TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS...AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOK TO BE IN EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE EVENING
BECOME LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING.  

PRECIPITATION TYPES LOOK TRICKY...AND DEPEND ON HOW MUCH THE
WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER CAN INFLUENCE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES...
WHICH COULD RISE SLOWLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE IN SOME
AREAS. SO...ANY TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...COULD WET BULB JUST BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE PATCHY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...THEN...AGAIN SOME AREAS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
RISE A LITTLE BACK TO OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THROUGH THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND INTO PARTS OF NW CT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO BE AT OR
JUST ABOVE FREEZING WHEN THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AROUND
AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING IN SE CANADA
SHOULD KEEP DRAINING SOME ANCHORING OF THE COLDER AIR IN AT LEAST
AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE
GEORGE REGION TO RUN FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 9 AM TUESDAY.

STRONGER WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY TO CHANGE ANY MIX TO
JUST A COLD RAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL A FEW
DEGREES TUESDAY EVENING BUT STAY ABOVE FREEZING ALONG WITH MORE
PERIODS OF RAIN. ON WEDNESDAY...EVEN A LITTLE WARMER WITH STILL
MORE PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MAY NOT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE EXCEPT IN THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT IS IN
QUESTION...BUT THE TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE WELL ABOVE
FREEZING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON CHRISTMAS MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT 
ATTACHED TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACING EASTWARD ACROSS 
OUR REGION. THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK 
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...DEEPENING INTO A NEAR 970 MB CYCLONE BY 
LATE IN THE DAY AS IT TRACKS INTO QUEBEC. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE 
FRONT AS IT CLEARS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH 
ADDITIONAL RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY 
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS THE REST OF CHRISTMAS 
DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SPIKE DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY 
AFTERNOON...THEN FALL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. EARLY HIGHS WILL 
BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD. 
TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN CONCERN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE THE POTENTIAL 
FOR STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE 
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WITH THE DEEPENING LOW AND COLD ADVECTION 
SETTING UP...RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE 
50-60 KTS CORE OF WINDS ALOFT. THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT 
MODIFICATION DUE TO FRICTION...BUT A WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE 
POSSIBILITY FOR ADVISORY OR EVEN WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS. THIS FAR 
OUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF 
WINDS ALOFT AND MIXING HEIGHTS...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO 
CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO.

WHILE IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR 
STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS MIXING DECREASES AND THE FLOW REGIME 
BECOMES INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC. OTHER THAN A FEW LEFTOVER SNOW 
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL 
WITH TEMPS COOLING TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION. DRY 
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A RIDGE BUILDS 
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH 
MILDER AIR QUICKLY RETURNING.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS 
SOUTHEAST CANADA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD 
FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...JUST A FEW 
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THEN MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY BUILDS FOR SUNDAY...AS THERE ARE VASTLY 
DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS YIELDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TRANQUIL 
WEATHER /GFS/ OR A POSSIBLE FAST-MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM 
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND/OR SNOW /ECMWF/ TO THE REGION. DUE TO 
LOW CONFIDENCE...WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME AND CONTINUE 
TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY 
IN PLACE...WITH BKN-OVC CIGS. CIG HEIGHTS VARY BETWEEN 1.5 TO 3.5 
KFT...SO FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EITHER VFR OR MVFR. CIGS WILL 
GENERALLY REMAIN SIMILAR TO CURRENT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTN AND 
EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT TO CALM SFC 
WINDS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING 
HOURS...AS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES HAVE MAINLY ENDED OVER THE 
AREA.

WITH A WEAK STORM SYSTEM JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD...LIGHT 
PRECIP IS EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES. KPOU 
LOOKS TO SEE ONLY RAIN...AND KALB/KPSF WILL ONLY SEE A VERY BRIEF 
PERIOD OF SLEET MIXING WITH RAIN BEFORE CHANGING TO JUST PLAIN RAIN 
BY LATE TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...KGFL WILL SEE SN/PL EVENTUALLY CHANGE 
TO PL/FZRA AND CONTINUING THROUGH DAYBREAK. PRECIP THERE WILL 
EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO PLAIN RAIN BY MID MORNING.  AT ALL SITES...IFR 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH VSBYS/CIGS DURING PRECIP. PRECIP 
WILL START TO LIGHTEN UP TOWARDS LATE MORNING TUESDAY...BUT CIGS 
WILL REMAIN IFR DUE TO MOIST LOW LEVELS BEANEATH A STRONG INVERSION 
FOR THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY ON TUESDAY. LIGHT S-SE SFC WINDS WILL BE 
ABOUT 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA. 
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX. 
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST 
     TUESDAY FOR NYZ032-033-042-043-082-083.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







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