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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 250423
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1223 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND. LOTS OF
SUNSHINE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW
HUMIDITY LEVELS. ON SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND HUMIDITY LEVELS. OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED AS WE HEAD
INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1215 AM EDT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FA...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF. THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES EVEN CHILLY FOR SOME AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH LOWER 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE
LOCATIONS SUCH AS KGFL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY INTO EARLY 
SATURDAY. EXPECT A LOT OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY...ALONG WITH SOME 
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 
DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. HIGH 
TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST SLIGHT BELOW NORMALS FOR THE TIME YEAR (WE 
HAVE REACHED OUR WARMEST CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK). THIS WILL TRANSLATE 
TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 IN THE VALLEYS (LOWER 80S MID HUDSON 
VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY). THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ENJOY 
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A LIGHT WIND WILL BECOME 
WEST 5 TO 10 MPH. 

MAINLY CLEAR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT 
LOWS WILL BE A TAD HIGHER THAN THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE 50S.

BY SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY RETREAT OFFSHORE. A 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW  ALOFT WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED 
WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO 
OUR AREA. A SHOWER OR EVEN THUNDERSTORM IS REMOTELY 
POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER...MOST...IF NOT 
ALL OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY IN MOST PLACES.  

ASSUMING THE CLOUD COVER IS NOT TOO EXTENSIVE...HIGH TEMPERATURES 
LOOK SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 80-85 IN MOST 
PLACES...75-80 ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.  DEWPOINTS LOOK TO CREEP UP 
TO AROUND 60 SO IT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE HUMID. A SOUTH BREEZE WILL 
PICK UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 15 MPH. 

SATURDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR 
NORTH...PULLING THAT WARM FRONT TOWARDS OUR REGION AS WELL AS AN 
OCCLUDED FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE WARM FRONT. SHOWERS WILL BECOME 
LIKELY AS PWATS RISE TO ABOUT 1.75 INCHES...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
IS REALIZED. INSTABILITY ALOFT COULD GENERATE SOME NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...THAT COULD CONTAIN SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

THE SATURDAY NIGHT SYSTEM IS ACTUALLY PART OF A LARGE PATTERN 
CHANGE...AS A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE 
GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE A LARGE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN THE 
WEST.    

WHILE THAT SPECIFIC SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEPART ON SUNDAY...CYCLONIC FLOW 
ALOFT WITH THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH...AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE 
WILL PROBABLY REAP ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON 
SUNDAY. THESE COULD OCCUR ANYTIME OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON. 
FOR NOW...JUST ASSIGNED 50 POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS 
WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S SO MUGGY WEATHER WILL RETURN. WITH ANY 
BREAKS OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S IN THE 
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY...80-85 IN AND AROUND 
THE CAPITAL REGION...75 TO 80 NORTH. THE MORE SUNSHINE WE RECEIVE 
THE GREAT THE POTENTIAL IS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE ROBUST 
DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD PERIOD OF LOW 
LEVEL FORCING AND UPPER DYNAMICS SUPPORTING HIGH CHANCES TO LIKELY 
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  UPPER ENERGY SLOWLY LIFTS 
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE MEAN 
UPPER TROUGH AXIS DEAMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EAST. SO...AGAIN...PERIODS 
OF CLOUDS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LIKELY COVERAGE THROUGH 
MONDAY...AND DECREASING TO SCATTERED COVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT...TO 
ISOLATED ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST AND 
SOUTH AND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER COLD POOL POSSIBLY 
AFFECTS NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S 
WITH LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.  HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO 
UPPER 70S...WITH MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WEDNESDAY 
AND THURSDAY BUT BASED ON THE MEAN POSITION OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH 
AXIS...LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH EAST AND SOUTH THAT 
THE REGION SHOULD SEE DRY WEATHER...BUT INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH 
CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  HIGHS 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WITH AROUND 70 TO 
LOWER 70S HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OTHER THAN SOME MVFR-IFR FOG DEVELOPING AT KGFL AND KPSF LATE 
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE A 
BATCH OF CIRRUS CLOUDS EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. MAINLY 
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL FORM AGAIN 
FRIDAY. 

WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ON FRIDAY...LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED AT KPOU AND KPSF WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW AT KGFL AND KALB 
DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS.
 
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SAT NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SHRA BECOMING LIKELY...CHC TSRA.
SUN-SUN NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA. 
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA. 
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCT SHRA...TSRA. 
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLD SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH A FULL RECOVERY EACH OF 
THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS. LOTS OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY WITH A LIGHT WIND 
BECOMING WESTERLY 5 TO 10 MPH. AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DIP TO 
BETWEEN 35-45 PERCENT. 

SATURDAY WILL FEATURE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND AFTERNOON RH 
VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 40S. THE WIND WILL BECOMES SOUTHERLY 5-15 
MPH. WHILE THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER 
OR EVEN THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OUR WEATHER LOOKS MORE 
HUMID AND UNSETTLED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST MUCH OF SATURDAY. THEN...INCREASING 
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY 
NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS PWATS ONCE AGAIN CREEP UP TO AROUND 1.75 
INCHES. 


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM







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