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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 232051
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
351 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BRING A AN INCREASINGLY MILD
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY VERY MILD WEATHER FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. A COASTAL STORM MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 108 PM EST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAD BEEN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATOCU CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. A
FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE EVEN POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CLOUDS...SO WILL ALLOW A SLIGHT CHC FOR A RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION /BASICALLY EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
AND WESTERN MA AND CT/ FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

MAX TEMPS ARE PROBABLY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS FOR THE DAY WITH THE
CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN. STILL...TEMPS ARE MUCH WARMER THAN RECENT
DAYS DUE TO WARMER TEMPS ALOFT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S...WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

THIS EVENING...MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AS A
SURFACE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WARM FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG S-SE LOW LEVEL
JET...INCREASING TO NEARLY 70 KTS AT 850 HPA TONIGHT...WILL
TRANSPORT PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. 06Z GEFS SHOWS PWAT VALUES REACHING OVER 2 STD ABOVE
NORMAL WITH VALUES APPROACHING 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
ACCORDING TO BOTH 12Z GFS/NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS.

WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
AREAS THAT CHANNEL THIS TYPE OF FLOW PATTERN SUCH AS THE
TACONICS...SRN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH. STILL...WOULDN/T EXPECT GUSTS TO REACH ADVISORY/WARNING
CRITERIA...AS STABLE LOW LEVELS SHOULD HELP PREVENT THE FULL BRUNT
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

A BAND OF STEADY RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A GENERAL
ONE-THIRD TO TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS TO OCCUR...WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER AN INCH IN THE CATSKILLS...BERKSHIRES AND
LITCHFIELD HILLS. THE RAIN MAY BRIEFLY FALL MODERATE IN
INTENSITY...BUT WILL BE PROGRESSIVE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE DONE RAINING BY MID MORNING ON
MONDAY...AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST THIS EVENING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S. TEMPS WILL THEN HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARDS JAMES BAY...A COLD FRONT WILL
BE SITUATED TO OUR WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SET UP WILL PUT OUR REGION IN THE WARM
SECTOR...WITH THE WARM FRONT WELL TO OUR NORTH. CLOUDS SHOULD
BREAK SOME SUNSHINE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN MONDAY. THIS
SOLAR HEATING...ALONG WITH 850 HPA TEMPS AROUND 10 DEGREES
C...WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS LOOK TO REACH THE
LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA /UPPER 50S OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...AND GREENS/. TEMPS IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT COULD EVEN MAKE A RUN AT THE UPPER 60S IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT EARLIER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT CONSIDERABLE AGREEMENT EXISTS IN
ACROSS THE MDL SUITE AND THE ENSEMBLES. WED INTO THANKSGIVING
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD CONTINUES AMONG THE MDL SOLUTIONS EVEN THOUGH THE
PLAYERS (MDLS) HAVE BEEN CHANGING PLACES FOR THE POTENTIAL EAST
COAST CYCLOGEN EVENT.

FIRST THE STRAIGHT FORWARD PART...SHARP 500HPA CUTOFF AND ITS
ASSOC INTENSE SFC LOW LIFTS NE FM NR JAMES BAY CANADA...DRAGGING
ITS TRAILING CDFNT ACROSS THE RGN MON EVNG WITH SCT -SHRA. THIS
CDFNT EVENTUALLY STALLS OFFSHORE. HWVR 500HPA FLOW REMAINS LARGELY
SW OVER THE E SEABOARD AS ANOTHER SHORT WV SHEARS NE ACROSS THE
RGN TUE. SFC FLOW WILL TURN SW THAN WEST. TEMPS WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY FALL MON NT AND HIGHS TUES WHILE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
MONDAYS MILD READINGS...WILL STILL BE 5-10 DEG ABV NORMAL. WITH
500HPA SHORT WV SHEARING NE..MUCH OF THE AREAS TUES WILL SEE PC
CONDS WITH CLR SKIES IN SE. IN FAR NW FCA DYNAMIC IS FORDING AND
MODEST CAA WITH INITIATE A LK RESPONSE WITH -SHSN REACHING FAR N
HERKIMER CO. 

TUES NT A SECONDARY CDFNT PASSES THROUGH AS FLAT 500HPA TROF
SIDES EAST COOLING THE AIR MASS MORE...AND WITH SUF INSTAB TO INCR
LK RESPONSE INTO W ADRNDKS. BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY OF THE
-SHSN VARIETY WITHOUT SIG ACCUMULATIONS. WED MRNG WILL BEGIN WITH
A 500 HPA TROF IN THE MISS VLY AND FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD.

WED BRINGS GREATER MDL SPREAD...AND LESS CONFIDENCE. WED A
SERIES OF EVENTS WILL TRIGGER SOME DEGREE OF CYCLGEN NEAR OR OFF
THE EAST COAST. TWO VORTICITY PACKETS WILL INTERACT WITH THE FLAT
TROF TO OUR WEST...AND THAT WILL IMPACT TO WHAT DEGREE THE 500HPA
TROF SHARPENS. IN ADDITION MDLS DIFFER IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN E GULF OF MEX THAT ENSUES LATE TUES. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL IMPACT THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500HPA TROF AND THE
ENSUING CYCLOGEN AND SFC LOW TRACK FOR WED.

FOR THE PAST SVRL RUNS THERE HAVE BEEN MAINLY TWO CAMPS...A WELL
OFFSHORE TO NEAR MISS TRACK...AND A COASTAL STORM TRACK WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A SIG RAIN AND SNOW EVENT ALONG THE E COAST. SINCE
THE 00UTC RUNS THE TWO CAMPS REMAIN BUT THE MODEL MEMBERS OF THE
RESPECTIVE CAMPS HAVE CHANGED.

THE NAM/GEM ARE IN THE OUT TO SEA...NEAR MISS CAMP. SFC LOW DEVELOPS
200-300 MILES OFF CAROLINAS OVER GULF STREAM AS N AND S BRANCH 500HPA
SHORT WVS NEVER PHASE IN THE TROF. THIS SCENARIO MAY BRING SOME
LIGHT RN/SN TO POINTS S & E OF ALB. 

THE ECMWF AND 12UTC GFS PHASE THE STREAMS...HAVE MORE CONVECTION
IN GULF OF MEX. THE GFS BRINGS STORM TRACK FM NR HAT WED AFTN...TO
100 MI E OF CAPE COD WED NT. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT N CLOSE TO THE
COAST. THESE TRACKS BRING MORE SIG PCPN BACK INTO FCA BUT HAS THE
GREATEST AMNTS STILL S & E OF ALB. ENOUGH COLD AIR HAS MADE IT
INTO FCA TO MAKE PTYPE A CONCERN. 

SINCE 00UTC EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN OF THE GFS HAS BROUGHT THE SYSTEM
CLOSER TO THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE LAST GFS ENSEMBLE PLUME HAD TWO
MAJOR CLUSTERS...ONE AT ALB WITH 0.6 LIQ EQUIV OF SNOW AND 6 MEMBERS...AND
THE OTHER NOTHING FOR 14 MEMBERS. THIS TENDS TO IMPLY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS RUN IS A MEMBER OF A MINORITY CLUSTER IN ITS OWN
ENSEMBLE.

THE 12UTC ECMWF IS CLOSER YET TO THE COAST...WHICH WOULD BE WARMER
AND MORE RAIN. SO THE TREND IS BCMG CLEARER. AT THIS TIME WILL
EXPECT LIGHT TO MODEST AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO OVERSPREAD AREA DURING
WED AFTN...CHANGING TO RAIN IN VLYS DURING THE EVNG....THEN BACK
TO SNOW. GIVEN THE ECMWF'S TIGHT COASTAL TRACK...THE GFS IS CLOSE
TO CONSENSUS FOR THIS EVENT ATTM...AND WILL USE IT TO POPULATE THE WED
AND WED NT PERIODS. SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE SUBJECT TO THE
INTERPLAY OF THE TRACK BEING JUST FAR ENOUGH OUT TO KEEP COLD AIR
IN PLACE AND PTYPE MOSTLY SNOW...OR CLOSER TO COAST WITH CHANGE
OVER TO RN EXPANDING FURTHER TO THE N & W.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE MARKED BY CLOUDS...COLD...AND PESKY 
LAKE-ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION 
MAINLY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.  IT BEGINS ON TURKEY DAY WITH THE BACK 
SIDE OF INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT ALONG THE CANADIAN 
MARITIMES COAST...AND CONTINUES THANKSGIVING NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE 
OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.  A CONTINUED WESTERLY 
FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER LAKE-EFFECT SNOWS IN THE USUAL LAKE 
EFFECT AREAS OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THIS FEATURE BREAKS DOWN 
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH 
BROADENS...AND WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  WHILE 
SUNSHINE WILL NOT BE ABUNDANT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT PERIODS 
OF IT ON ANY GIVEN DAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS IN THE LAKE EFFECT REGION.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE MILDEST DAY OF THE BUNCH...WITH HIGH 
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 30 DEGREES IN THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE 
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO AROUND 40 DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN MAINLY THE MID 20S TO UPPER 
30S RANGE.  OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE MID 
TEENS TO MID 20S RANGE.  ALBANY/S HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE NORMALLY 
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.  

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE THROUGHOUT THE TAF 
PERIOD AS RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT 
IMPACT THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AN INITIAL BREAK IN CLOUD COVER RESULTING IN A 
PERIOD OF SCT-BKN SKIES WILL QUICKLY BE FILLED BACK IN WITH AN 
OVERCAST DECK AROUND 4-6 KFT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN RESPONSE TO 
MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS 
AFTERNOON...IMPACTING MAINLY KALB...KGFL AND KPSF WHERE VCSH WERE 
INDICATED FROM 19Z-00Z DUE TO THE EXPECTED LIGHT AND WIDELY 
SCATTERED NATURE. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KGFL AND KALB 
AROUND 4-8 KNOTS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AT KPOU 
AND KPSF. HAVE ALSO PLACED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR CEILINGS FROM 
19Z-21Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AS THE 
SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR 
BOTH IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE 
REGION FROM THE SOUTH...BUT INITIALLY BE VFR BETWEEN 00Z-03Z EXCEPT 
FOR MVFR CEILINGS AT KPOU AND KPSF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS CLOSER 
TO THE REGION...MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 
BETWEEN 04-08Z WITH A STEADIER RAIN DEVELOPING AT THE TAF SITES 
BETWEEN 09Z-12Z ALONG WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. DEPENDING 
ON THE INTENSITY OF RAIN AFTER 12Z CEILINGS MAY OCCASIONALLY DIP 
INTO THE IFR RANGE BUT LEFT THEM AT LOW-END MVFR WITH THIS TAF 
ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY 
MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA...SN.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN. 
THANKSGIVING DAY TO FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT...THIS TIME IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAINFALL...WILL IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A HALF INCH TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE SE
CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MINOR RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS...BUT NO FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. BEHIND THIS RAIN EVENT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR TUESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
MORE PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION FOR MIDWEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







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