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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 240809
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
400 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND A 
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST IN THE GULF OF MAINE THROUGH MUCH 
OF TODAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE REGION 
TONIGHT. IT WILL BE A BRISK DAY BUT WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. THE WIND 
WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT LEAVING US WITH A COLD NIGHT FOR LATE APRIL. 
FRIDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT CHANCE OF 
RAIN ARRIVES TOMORROW NIGHT.  

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...IFR SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE FEW IF ANY CLOUDS 
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE THEME OF THE DAY...LOTS OF 
SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN TO BETWEEN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 
30S FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...30-35 TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE 
CAPITAL DISTRICT.  

DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WAS FOUND OVER THE GULF OF MAINE...WHILE HIGH 
PRESSURE RESIDED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. OUR AREA WAS 
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT. 

A BREEZE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT 
HOURS...ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 15 MPH...ALONG WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS. 
THE WIND WILL PREVENT FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT TEMPERATURES 
WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BY DAYBREAK. THEY WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 
LOWER TO MID 30S MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS. 

SUNSHINE WILL ATTEMPT TO HEAT UP THE SURFACE TODAY. HOWEVER...WITH 
STILL PLENTY OF COLD AIR ALOFT...THIS HEATING WILL PRODUCE EXCELLENT 
MIXING WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT...PRODUCING PRETTY IMPRESSIVE 
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON GUSTS. THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE TO 10 
TO 20 MPH...BUT WILL GUST TO 30 MPH EVERYWHERE...PERHAPS UP TO 45 
MPH ACROSS THE HIGHEST TERRAIN/35-40 ACROSS THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND 
GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT. 

THE COMBINATION OF THESE GUSTY WINDS...VERY LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES 
AND THE LACK OF A GOOD WETTING RAIN IN DAYS...HAS PROMPTED FIRE 
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR MORE ON 
THESE...PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST DISCUSSION FOUND 
LATER IN THE AFD. 

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP BETWEEN 55 TO 60 IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 
40S TO MID 50S HIGHER TERRAIN.      

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY RELAX AS LOW PRESSURE 
FINALLY MOVES FURTHER EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT 
CREST OVER THE REGION. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A RAPID DIMINISHING OF 
THE WIND THIS EVENING. THE SKY WILL START OUT CLEAR...WITH SOME HIGH 
CLOUDS INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS WILL OFFER BETTER 
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS DESPITE SOME WARM ADVECTION ALOFT. 
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DIP TO AROUND 30 FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT 
SOUTHWARD...LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS. 

FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A MUCH MORE TRANQUIL DAY. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL 
SLOWLY INCREASES...IT NOW APPEARS FROM THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE 
COLLECTION THAT ANY RAIN FROM THE NEXT DISTURBANCE...SHOULD STAY MAINLY 
WEST OF OUR REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FEW SHOWERS MIGHT SNEAK 
INTO AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY. THE 
COMBINATION OF SOME SUNSHINE...A BREEZE TURNING SOUTHERLY AND 
PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON...GOOD MIXING AND 
WARM ADVECTION...WILL GIVE TEMPERATURES A BUMP UPWARD. LOOK FOR 
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS...CLOSER TO 60 EVEN 
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.  

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE...AN OCCLUDED FRONT 
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION AND BRING SHOWERS. 
ALL MODELS SUGGEST THE OLD PRIMARY LOW THAT WILL RIDE BY TO OUR 
NORTH WILL WEAKEN WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTHEAST. 
THIS SECONDARY LOW MIGHT ACTUALLY BRING A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN 
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT THIS SCENARIO IS NOT ETCHED IN 
STONE YET. FOR NOW WE WILL HAVE LIKELY SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS FRIDAY 
NIGHT. 

IT MIGHT JUST COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS FOR THE RAIN TO MIX 
WITH OR MAYBE EVEN CHANGE TO WET SNOW OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY ACCUMULATIONS 
FROM THIS VANTAGE POINT LOOKS LIGHT TO NIL. 

THE SECONDARY LOW WILL PULL AWAY ON SATURDAY. A DRY SLOT SHOULD 
BRING A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE TO SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY FROM ALBANY 
SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF THE STORM WILL WORK 
ACROSS THE REGION FROM ALBANY NORTH BY LATE IN THE DAY. WE WILL 
CARRY THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN 
WHILE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD. IN FACT...OUR 
SOUTHERN AREAS MIGHT SEE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE. 

THE AIR ALOFT WILL BE COOLING SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH GOOD 
MIXING VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD SHOULD SEE HIGH 
TEMPERATURES AGAIN AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE BETTER...50S FURTHER NORTH 
WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. 

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OF RAIN OR EVEN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS 
MAINLY THE ADIRONDACKS SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE MOST EVERYONE ELSE WILL 
HAVE NOTHING THAN A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE. IT LOOKS TO TURN 
CHILLY ONCE MORE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW TUMBLING 
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 20S ADIRONDACKS 
WHERE ONCE AGAIN A FEW SPOTS COULD PICK UP A DUSTING OF 
SNOW.         


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WE BEGIN THE LONG TERM SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER THE 
NORTH ATLANTIC AND DEEPENING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE NET 
RESULT IS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST PER THE 00Z 
GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  WE 
WILL HOLD ONTO SOME CHC POPS NORTH OF ALBANY EARLY ON SUNDAY AS 
CYCLONIC FLOW AND MOISTURE LINGERS.  EVEN WITH PARTIAL 
SUNSHINE...H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND OR BELOW 0Z WHICH 
WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE.

THE PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS 
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS DEEPENS FURTHER 
AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ALONG THE EASTERN 
SEABOARD.  IT APPEARS WE WILL BE LOOKING FOR A RATHER WET PERIOD OF 
WEATHER INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.  WHILE THE THERMAL COLUMN DOES 
MODERATE...WITH THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE CHANCES 
FOR RAINFALL...WE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MAINLY BELOW NORMAL FOR 
DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. 

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE DIMINISHING LEAVING BEHIND A CLEAR SKY.  THESE 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST CYCLE ENDING 
06Z/FRI.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES WILL REMAIN STEADY BETWEEN 5 KT 
AND 15 KT..WITH SOME INTERMITTENT GUSTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THE WINDS 
WILL INCREASE AGAIN WITH DAYLIGHT THURSDAY TO 14 TO 20 KTS WITH 
GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA. 
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA. 
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. 
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. 
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 600 PM ACROSS 
SOUTHERN VERMONT...THE BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT. IN 
EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...THE RED FLAG WARNING INCLUDES ALL BUT THE 
ADIRONDACKS. WE DID ADD SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY INTO WARNING. 

...WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND WILL GUSTS ANYWHERE FROM 30-45 MPH THIS 
AFTERNOON...IN CONJUNCTION WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 15-25 
PERCENT. ALSO THE COMPUTED HAINES INDEX IS EXPECTED TO BE 5-6 IN 
MOST AREAS...WHICH IS HIGH TO VERY HIGH AND CAN HELP SUPPORT FIRE 
GROWTH. 

PER EARLIER COORDINATION WITH OUR LIAISON STATE CONTACT 
POINTS...MOST OF OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL 
FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR TODAY. THE ADIRONDACKS WERE LEFT OUT SINCE 
PROJECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES THERE TODAY WILL GENERALLY AROUND 50 OR 
A LITTLE LESS. ALSO...THERE WAS A LITTLE MORE RAINFALL RECENTLY AS 
WELL AS SOME LINGERING EFFECTS OF MELTING SNOW. FOR THIS AREA...WE 
WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.    

THE WIND WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING ANY THE THREAT OF ANY 
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.    

THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING 
HOURS AS WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO ABOVE 30 
PERCENT. 

FRIDAY...WILL FEATURE MORE CLOUDS THAN TODAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL 
ACTUALLY BE MILDER. RH VALUES LOOK TO DIP TO OR A LITTLE BELOW 30 
PERCENT ONCE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A SOUTH TO 
SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...GENERALLY AVERAGING 
AROUND 10 MPH...WITH A FEW GUSTS CLOSER TO 20 POSSIBLE. NO FIRE 
WEATHER ACTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY 
SATURDAY. IT IS ABOUT A 50/50 CHANCE THAT ANY ONE AREA WILL REACH A 
QUARTER INCH OR MORE.   


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE 
DAYS. 

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN HAPPENS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AT 
THIS POINT WE ARE PROJECTING MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY AROUND 
A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. THIS RAINFALL AMOUNT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR 
NO EFFECT ON RIVERS AND STREAMS. 

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
     CTZ001-013.
NY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
     NYZ038>041-043-047>054-058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
     MAZ001-025.
VT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/LFM









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