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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 161036
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. 
SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TODAY BUT IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE MID MARCH 
ALONG WITH A BRISK WIND. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED 
OVER OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE 
WITH TIME WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS BY 
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM EDT...STILL TRACKING SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES FROM THE 
CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST BUT THESE WERE DIMINISHING AS HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. 

TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION...TEENS 
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS IN OTHER HIGHER 
TERRAIN AREAS ...20S ACROSS MOST OF THE MAJORITY OF AREAS.  

MOST OF OUR AREA RECEIVED ACCUMULATING SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 
INCH RANGE. A BAND OF BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SET UP ACROSS LITCHFIELD 
COUNTY WHERE UP TO LOCALLY UP TO 6 INCHES HAVE FALLEN. PLEASE REFER 
TO PUBLIC STATEMENTS FOR ALL OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MEASUREMENTS.

WE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ADDRESSING THIS SITUATION THAT 
WILL RUN THROUGH MORNING DRIVE (800 AM) FOR STANDING FROZEN SLUSH 
AND BLACK ICE.   

WE WILL BE LEFT WITH A DRY BUT COLD DAY FOR TODAY. CLOUDS WILL 
GENERALLY DECREASE. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY NEAR OR EVEN A 
LITTLE BELOW -10C. EVEN WITH GOOD MIXING AND GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE 
(MIXED WITH FAIR WEATHER CU)...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RISE NO HIGHER 
THAN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. EVEN IN 
THE VALLEY AREAS...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 40 TO 45 
RANGE. TO THE LEE OF THE CATSKILLS...THANKS TO A MORE DOWNSLOPING 
WIND...HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY 
AND LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY. 

THESE VALUES ARE PERFECTLY NORMAL FOR MID MARCH...BUT OVER 10 
DEGREES LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. A GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST 
WIND 10 TO 25 MPH WILL ADD TO THE CHILL AT TIMES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL 
DIMINISH QUICKLY AND THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR DURING EVENING. 
OVERNIGHT...SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS MIGHT INCREASE DUE TO 
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. EVEN SO...NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL 
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT. THE WILD CARD IS HOW FAST THE SNOW COVER 
WILL MELT TODAY. GIVEN A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH ABOVE 
FREEZING TEMPERATURES...WE BELIEVE MOST OF IT WILL MELT. IF THAT 
ISN'T THE CASE...TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN COLDER. (OUR FORECAST AGAIN 
ASSUMES MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE ADIRONDACK PARK WILL HAVE VERY 
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW LEFT BY TONIGHT). 

EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S 
FROM ALBANY SOUTHWARD...TEENS NORTH. 

THESE VALUES SHOULD JUST MISS RECORD LOWS. THE RECORD LOW AT ALBANY 
FOR APRIL 17TH IS 21 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1971. IF SNOW REMAINS ON 
THE GRASS BY TONIGHT...THERE IS AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY OF THIS 
RECORD BEING ECLIPSED. 

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO OUR NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. HIGHS THAT 
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OFFER A GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR A QUICKER 
WARMUP DUE TO A MORE SSW FLOW. A HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL MEAN 
MORE OF A SE FLOW WHICH THIS TIME OF YEAR USUALLY MEANS LESS OF WARM 
UP. THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK...SO SUNSHINE WILL BE MAIN PLAYER 
MODERATING THE AIR MASS ON THURSDAY. WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...WE 
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH BACK TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 50S MOST VALLEY AREAS. 

ANY LIGHT BREEZE LOOKS TO DECOUPLE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH A MAINLY 
CLEAR SKY EVERYONE LOOKS TO GET BELOW FREEZING ONCE 
MORE...GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30. 

FRIDAY...STILL WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL 
MODERATE A LITTLE MORE BACK INTO THE 50S...UPPER 50S FROM ALBANY 
SOUTHWARD. THESE VALUES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR 
MID APRIL. 

FRIDAY NIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH OUR 
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS 
AS WELL. IT MIGHT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. 
MORE ABOUT THE CLIPPER WILL BE FOUND IN LONG TERM PORTION OF THE 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT ON THE WET SIDE WITH SHOWERS 
EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. DRIER WEATHER IS 
THEN EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND 
MONDAY MORNING. WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON 
THROUGH TUESDAY  

HERE ARE SOME SPECIFICS REGARDING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. ON SATURDAY 
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA WITH A 
PERIOD OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS ACROSS 
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO 
BE ALLOT OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS 
DIMINISHING GREATLY AFTER 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED 
TO BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH THE LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN 
THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MOST OF THE SNOW HAS ENDED AT THE TAF SITES WITH MAINLY VFR/MVFR 
CONDITIONS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT 
KPSF WHERE SOME SNOW AND IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LATE FOR ANOTHER HOUR 
OR SO.

LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME SKC 
AND REMAIN SO UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z THURSDAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG OVERNIGHT MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST 
AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS STILL AT KPSF. WINDS WILL LOWER 
SOME WEDNESAY MORNING 8-12 KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. THE 
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. 
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. 
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. 
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. 
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ALL AREAS RECEIVED A HALF INCH TO OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN THE LAST 
24 HOURS. IN ADDITION MOST AREAS RECEIVED ACCUMULATION 
SNOW...GENERALLY IN THE 1-4 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH SOME PLACES IN 
CONNECTICUT LOOKED TO HAVE PICKED UP TO 6 INCHES. 

WITH A STRONG APRIL SUNSHINE...MOST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE GONE BY 
DARK. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WOODED AREAS...AND OF COURSE 
PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE OLD SNOW COVERED LINGERED.

IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND BREEZY DAY WITH WEST OR NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 
TO 30 MPH OR A LITTLE HIGHER.  

THE WIND WILL GO CALM TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW FREEZING 
REGIONWIDE.

DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW MODERATING TREND FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. 
DAYTIME WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO 
NORTHEAST 5 TO 15 MPH.  

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON SATURDAY. SOME OF THIS 
MIGHT BE MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS POINT...THE QPF 
LOOKS LIGHT...BELOW A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS...BUT WE 
MIGHT EXCEED THAT AMOUNT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS OF VERMONT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD RAIN OF AN INCH TO TWO INCHES ALONG WITH SNOW MELT
HAVE PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT MANY RIVER
POINTS IN THOSE AREAS AND SOME PLACES HAVE REACHED OR WILL REACH
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE...POSSIBLY MAJOR FLOOD STAGE ALONG THE
SCHROON RIVER. MANY HEADWATER POINTS HAVE CRESTED BUT RISES WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ON THE LARGER MAIN STEM RIVERS.

COLDER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING HAS MOVED INTO OUR AREA. 
ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION WAS IN THE FORM OF SNOW...SLOWING 
DOWN THE RUNOFF. SOME SMALLER STREAMS MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SMALL RISES 
TODAY AND THURSDAY FROM SNOW MELT.

DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND RIVERS WILL 
RECEDE LATER THIS WEEK. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE 
SATURDAY. SOME PRECIPITATION COULD FALL AS WET SNOW ACROSS THE 
HIGHER TERRAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THIS VANTAGE 
POINT.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/HWJIV









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