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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 260149
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
949 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...SETTING UP A RETURN 
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY INTO THE WEEKEND. 
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A 
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY 
SUNDAY...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED 
TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING 
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 945 PM...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
CLOUDS OFF TO THE WEST ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP IN FAVORED
SHELTERED VALLEYS AND LOCATIONS NEAR BODIES OF WATER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOL AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT TRANQUIL...HOWEVER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN 
THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL START TO MOVE 
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN INCREASINGLY FLOW ALOFT WITH 
HEIGHTS FLATTENING OUT. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY 
SHOULD BE ON THE TAME SIDE...AS FORECAST CAPE LOOKS TO BE RATHER 
LIMITED AND POTENTIALLY ELEVATED. ALSO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOT YET 
INCREASING WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS ROOTED IN THE 
BOUNDARY LAYER. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THE ENERGY ALOFT 
SATURDAY NIGHT...WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL FOCUS SO WILL MENTION HIGH 
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF 
THUNDER...ALTHOUGH ANY STORMS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE WEAK SIDE.

SUNDAY LOOKS RATHER COMPLICATED AND UNCERTAIN IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL 
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURES A 
DEEPENING BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA EXTENDING 
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...WITH A POTENT 
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS 
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN...HOWEVER THE GFS IS 
DEPICTING AN ADDITIONAL VORT MAX AHEAD OF THE GREAT LAKES 
DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION LATE SUNDAY. TIMING WITH 
THIS FEATURE COULD RESULT IN STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING DUE TO 
GREATER INSTABILITY /CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG/...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR 
INCREASING TO 35 KT...AND 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES STEEPENING TO NEAR 
7C/KM. FORCING FROM THE VORT COULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER STORMS IN A 
POTENTIALLY VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT. THE NAM/ECMWF DO NOT INDICATE THIS 
FEATURE THOUGH...WITH A DISTINCT LACK OF CONVECTION DUE TO MINIMAL 
FORCING. SO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST EXISTS FOR SUNDAY AT THIS 
TIME. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO 
THE 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER...WHICH 
IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.

THE MAIN SHORT-WAVE AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER SURFACE WAVE WILL 
GRADUALLY TRACK THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH 
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR 
NOW...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING. NEED 
TO SEE HOW MODELS TREND OVER TIME BEFORE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING 
AND EXTENT OF HIGHER POPS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN 
AMPLIFIES WITH A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED 
STATES WITH A RIDGE OUT WEST. THE TROUGH WILL BE A RESULT OF A  
POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT 
INTO MONDAY. THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH BE DOMINATED BY THE 
TROUGH OVER THE REGION WITH A LARGE CUT LOW CENTERED NEAR HUDSON'S 
BAY.

THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECTING 
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM 
LINGERS OVER THE REGION AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE 
TROUGH. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM 
SLOWLY EXITS THE REGION. AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK 
WEEK...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN UNDER THE 
UPPER TROUGH. 

THE WORK WEEK WILL START OUT WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO 
THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST 
DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S...AROUND 10 DEGREES 
BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL 
AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH A
RETURN SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME FOG AT KPSF AND KGFL LATE TONIGHT...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE FOG MAY LOWER TO IFR AT KPSF. OTHERWISE
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH FEW-SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPING SATURDAY.
EXPECT BATCHES OF CIRRUS TO STREAM OVERHEAD WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING SOUTHERLY SATURDAY AT 5
TO10 KNOTS SATURDAY.
 
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT-TUE: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT...SETTING UP A RETURN 
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY INTO THE WEEKEND. 
OUR WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A 
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY 
SUNDAY...WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED 
TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. MIDWEEK WILL BRING 
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT 
TONIGHT...THE DROP TO MINIMUM VALUES OF BETWEEN 40 AND 45 PERCENT 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 90 TO 100 
PERCENT SATURDAY NIGHT.

WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BECOME 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON SATURDAY...BECOMING SOUTHERLY 
AROUND 5 KT SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON. 
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY SATURDAY 
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY...WHICH 
MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR DRAINAGE 
LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREA. 

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE 
THROUGH MID WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE 
REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER/JPV
NEAR TERM...IAA/LFM
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV







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