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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 250559
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
159 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THIS 
MORNING.  A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE 
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON TODAY.  THIS WILL BRING THE 
THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS ALONG WITH BRISK AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE 
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT...SFC ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
OH VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION IN THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY. THE
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ARE ALLOW DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR. FOG
HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE GRIDDED/TEXT FORECASTS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN
RETRENDED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. SOME SITES HAVE FALLEN CLOSE TO
THEIR PREVIOUS FORECASTED MINS /SRN VT/. LOWS NOW ARE EXPECTED
FROM THE MID 30 TO L40S ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET DYNAMICS MOVES INTO UPSTATE NEW
YORK. HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE PROFILES REMAIN LESS THAN
IMPRESSIVE. SOME LAKE MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION MAY ASSIST WITH
SHALLOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE RATHER LOW.
SO THE HIGHER POPS WILL BE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO PORTIONS
OF THE DECK WITH 20-30 PERCENT POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS INTO NW CT KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY AT THE PRESENT TIME. AS MORE PEAKS OF SUN ARE
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE MIXING POTENTIAL...WE WILL WARM
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS /PERHAPS LOWER 60S
FOR MID HUDSON VALLEY LOCATIONS/ AND LOWER 50S FOR THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SATURDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT SLIDES WELL EAST OF THE REGION DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED /AT BEST/. HOWEVER...THE COLD
UPPER LOW AND STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST /MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/. H850 TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AT OR BELOW 0C BY
MORNING SO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN MAY EXPERIENCE SOME MIXING OF SNOW. 

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW WILL BE TRANSVERSING THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE TERRAIN. THE
OTHER METEOROLOGICAL ISSUE WILL BE THE WINDS. MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS
TAP INTO THE MID-UPR 30KT RANGE SO A RATHER BRISK DAY IS IN THE
FORECAST. WITH THE CHILLY TEMPS ALOFT...AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOW-MID 50S. 

SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW TRACKS WELL EAST WITH RIDGE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST PER NCEP MODEL CONSENSUS. A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
SHOWER TREND DURING THE EVENING ALONG WITH IMPROVING SKY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. MOS VALUES ARE FAIRLY
CLOSE /WITHIN 1-2 DEGREES/ AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INITIALLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR 
THE START OF NEXT WEEK...BUT BECOMING UNSETTLED BY MIDWEEK WITH 
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS IMPACT THE 
REGION.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING 
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MOVING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD 
TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER 
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF 
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP 
ACROSS THE REGION TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE 
NORMAL TUESDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
FORECAST AREA AND EVEN THE CHANCE FOR SOME LOCATIONS IN THE 
MID-HUDSON VALLEY TO REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING 
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE DYNAMICS LOCATED WELL NORTH OF 
THE REGION ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. HOWEVER...ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR A 
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY 
RESULTING IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM 
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE 
IN THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND HAVE INDICATED CHANCE POPS 
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

OUTSIDE OF TUESDAY...IN WHICH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 
60S TO NEAR 70...HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL 
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S TO LOW 60S...BEFORE TRENDING COOLER 
LATE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOW 
TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S...BUT 
ALSO TREND COOLER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK RANGING FROM THE MID 30S 
TO LOW 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO RADIATIONAL
FOG. CLOUD COVER HAS DECREASED AND WINDS ARE LIGHT OR HAVE GONE CALM
IN SOME LOCATIONS. A BATCH OF CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE USED TEMPO GROUPS TO ADDRESS
CONCERNS OF VISIBILITY BEING VARIABLE DUE TO THE FOG. ALREADY HAVE
IFR AND LOWER AT KGFL WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...OTHERWISE MVFR
EXPECTED WITH IFR POSSIBLE. AFTER SUNRISE ANY FOG BURNS OFF/LIFTS
AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS 
LOWERING IN THE EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE 
WEST. THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SYSTEM WARM SECTOR BY THIS 
EVENING WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WITH 
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED SO HAVE
ADDRESSED THREAT WITH VCSH.

WINDS ARE CALM TO LIGHT WITH DIRECTION AT THE TAF SITES DRIVEN BY 
LOCAL EFFECTS. SOUTHWEST-WEST WINDS DEVELOP AFTER 12Z WITH A SHIFT 
MORE TO THE SOUTH AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING. SPEED OF LESS THAN 10 
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. THEN THE WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST WITH 
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASE IN SPEED.     

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-TUE: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUE NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. 
WED: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE COOL AND WET
PATTERN THE PAST FEW DAYS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO MOST OF SATURDAY. FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING WINDS IN THE WAKE OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAINLY ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS ABOVE 30MPH EXPECTED. 

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH INTO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT ..AND REMAIN RATHER ELEVATED DURING THE WEEKEND AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 45 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALMOST ALL MAIN STEM RIVERS HAVE CRESTED OR ARE ABOUT TO CREST. 
RIVERS LEVEL WILL RECEDE TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS ONLY 
SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO 
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH OF ALBANY THIS 
WEEKEND. SOME CONTROLLED DAM RELEASES WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM ON RIVER POINTS. 

DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY TO THE 
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEVELS TO RECEDE FURTHER.     

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/JPV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/JPV







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