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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 212238
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
638 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION 
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH LOCALLY 
HEAVY RAIN...AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL 
LOW WILL TRACK OFF THE COAST TOMORROW WITH A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS 
AND COOL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AT ALL LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE FROM QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEAST. IT WILL BRING INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 357 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY SITUATED WEST OF
THE REGION JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. WITH A MOIST AIR MASS
IN PLACE...THERE IS PLENTY OF FORCING IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS..

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED...WHICH IS HELPING KEEP THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOW.
HOWEVER...WITH PWATS ABOVE NORMAL /AROUND 1.63 INCHES FROM THIS
MORNINGS KALY SOUNDING/...DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S...AND HIGH FZL
LEVELS /FZL LEVELS AROUND 12000 FT/....THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...AS
WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL DOMINATE. THE RADAR HAS ALREADY SHOWN
SEVERAL SLOW MOVING LOW TOPPED STORMS...WITH HEAVY ECHOES LOCATED
TOWARDS THE BOTTOMS OF THE STORM...INDICATING HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS
DISORGANIZED...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING. SEE OUR HYDRO DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

POPS GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN TO CHANCE FOR LATE TONIGHT AS THE CORE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVERHEAD...AND THE BEST FORCING
STARTS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT STILL LOOKS TO
REMAIN CLOUDY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MIN TEMPS MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO SHIFT OFFSHORE.
HOWEVER...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
FOR THE THREAT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESP DURING DAYTIME
HEATING. ANY RAINFALL WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON FRIDAY...AS THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAIRLY CLOUDY WITH
THE UPPER LOW NEARBY...SO TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN. MAX TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A LINGERING SPRINKLE OR SHOWER
CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...OTHERWISE IT
LOOKS TO BE DRY. FINALLY...SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL START TO
OCCUR...ESP BY SAT MORNING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AS DRIER AIR
STARTS TO WORK IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 50S...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 70S.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CAN BE
EXPECTED...ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO FALL EASILY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE MID 50S IN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY WITH GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS 
OFFSHORE. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. HIGHS 
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WITH UPPER 70S TO 
LOWER 80S IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

A WEAK COLD FRONT JUST BEGINS TO APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND 
THURSDAY BUT THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING SHOULD STILL BE IN PLACE. 
SO...JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRIMARY 500HPA SHORT WV IS MOVING INTO FCA W/ITS ASSOC WK SFC TROF...AND
SCT -SHRA/TSTMS ARE EVOLVING INTO MORE WIDESPREAD -SHRA...AND EMBEDDED
TSTMS AS THEY ARE MVNG INTO AREAS OF ELEVATED CAPE. CIGS AND OR
VSBYS WILL BE MVFR DURING THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS IFR IN TSTMS
THIS EVENING...BCMG IFR OVERNIGHT WITH LOWERING CIGS AND AREAS OF
FOG FORMING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING BCMG NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT.

FRI THE SFC TROF WILL LINGER NR WESTERN PERIPHERY OF FCA...AS SVRL
500HPA SHORT WVS DROP SE IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING 500HPA CUTOFF.
SCT-BKN -SHRA WILL DIM THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
LLVLS FROM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH UNDER 500HPA RIDGE OVER
QB. WINDS WILL BCMG LIGHT NE. CIGS/VSBY WILL BE MVFR MUCH OF THE
DAY...IMPVG TO VFR TWRDS EVNG. 

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WILL
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM. RH VALUES WILL BE NEAR
100 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT. WITH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AROUND TOMORROW...RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 70 PERCENT THROUGH
THE ENTIRE DAY...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
THANKS TO A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE RATHER SLOW MOVING...AND WITH PWATS ABOVE NORMAL
/1.63 INCHES ON THIS MORNINGS 12Z KALY SOUNDING/...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

SOME AREAS...GENERALLY FROM AROUND AMSTERDAM NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SACANDAGA LAKE AND INTO WESTERN SARATOGA COUNTY...SAW TWO TO FOUR
INCHES OF RAIN LAST NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...GROUND CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
RATHER DRY...DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL. AS A RESULT...MOST
AREAS WILL BE ABLE TO HANDLE SOME RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IF HEAVY
RAIN OCCURS OVER THOSE AREAS THAT SAW RAINFALL LAST NIGHT OR IF
RAINFALL REPEATEDLY MOVES OVER THE SAME LOCATION THIS AFTN INTO
EVENING...THEN SOME MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS MAY OCCUR. AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD CANNOT TOTALLY
BE RULED OUT...ALTHOUGH ANY POSSIBLE FLOOD ISSUES WOULD LIKELY BE
MORE OF THE POOR DRAINAGE/URBAN TYPE CONCERNS.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL END TONIGHT...AS THE BEST
FORCING STARTS TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS INTO TOMORROW...NO ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME RISES ON MAIN STREAM RIVERS DUE TO THE
RAINFALL...NO FLOODING OF LARGER RIVERS IS EXPECTED. WITH DRY
WEATHER RETURNING FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...RIVER LEVELS WILL
RECEDE AND/OR HOLD STEADY INTO NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...IRL/SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







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