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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 272257
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
657 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
ISOLATED CONVECTION INTO CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS NOW. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ON RADAR FROM SCHOHARIE THROUGH GREENE
AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES FOR ANY NEW CONVECTION. DIURNAL COOLING
OCCURRING SO CHANCES OF ANY NEW CONVECTION DECREASING. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...IF ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS DO
DEVLOP...COULD BE SEVERE. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT...STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR MARGINAL SEVERE
TRANSITIONING TO VERY HEAVY RAIN. WORDING SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST. QUITE A BIT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS
OCCURRED UPSTREAM SO WE HAVE TO CAREFULLY WATCH THE MODE OF
CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS INTO OUR REGION BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
SUNRISE.

QUITE A SPIN TO THE UPPER IMPULSE IN THE GREAT LAKES AND QUITE A
BIT OF CONVECTION EXPANDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN
VALLEY. THERE HAS BEEN A DECENT CONSENSUS FROM GUIDANCE IN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS FOR UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL AND
JET FORCING TO SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION TRACKING OUT OF THE NORTH
MID ATLANTIC...NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...NORTHWEST CT AND THE BERKSHIRES...PERHAPS SCRAPING THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SOUTHERN VT.

NIGHTTIME CONVECTION OFTEN WEAKER THAN DAYTIME CONVECTION BUT THE
PREDICTED INSTABILITY...UPPER AND LOW LEVEL JET STRUCTURE AND
UPPER DYNAMICS WITH A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SURFACE LOW TRACKING
THROUGH THE REGION...EARLY TO MID MORNING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
COULD FLIRT WITH SEVERE LEVELS. WILL HAVE TO CHECK LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVELS AS STORMS APPROACH LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY AND OTHER FORECAST MODEL CALCULATED
SEVERE/TORNADO PARAMETERS ARE WORTH MONITORING WITH THE WELL
DEFINED SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION. LOWS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FORCING PIVOTS NORTH
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH STRONG CONVECTION
TRANSITIONING TO SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS THE COMMA HEAD
PRECIPITATION TRAILS THE LEADING CONVECTION. KEEPING THE GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TOMORROW...THEN
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN VT
TO THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES SEEING THE RAIN END MORE TOWARD
EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT COULD BE A
LITTLE WARMER IF THERE ARE GAPS BETWEEN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN AREAS COULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR TRACKS THROUGH
SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MIDDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO
WEST AND MAY BE GUSTY WHEN THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOME GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY DRY AS A COOLER
AND DRYER AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
AXIS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF OUR REGION...SO THERE COULD BE SOME
INTERVALS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT AGAIN...THE WEATHER SHOULD BE
DRY. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...COOLER IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S...BUT LOWER TO MID 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LEADING
EDGE OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD APPROACH WESTERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER IMPULSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST FROM 
THE MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL FEATURE 
SOME DISTURBANCES ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH UNTIL THE END OF 
WORK WEEK...BUT THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N-CNTRL ATLANTIC BUILDS 
WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY LATE IN 
THE WEEKEND...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE ATLANTIC 
SEABOARD FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN 
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  A SHORT-WAVE 
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT 
SHOWERS LATE WED NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER 
VALLEY.  THE SFC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY FOCUS SOME 
SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THU.  
THE GFS INDICATES MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE DIFFERENTIAL 
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAN THE ECMWF THIS RUN.  THE BETTER 
FORCING LOOKS LIKE FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTHWARD...SO CHC POPS 
WERE USED HERE...WITH SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH.  H850 TEMPS ARE 
STILL IN THE +8C TO +12C RANGE WITH LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT SOME U40S 
OVER THE SRN DACKS/ERN CATSKILLS/SRN GREENS...AND HIGHS ON THU IN 
THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE HILLS 
AND MTNS.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BRIEF BREAK IS EXPECTED 
WITH THE CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE TROUGH 
OVER THE ERN CONUS DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY. WPC HAS WEAK SFC 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THU NIGHT...THEN  
DRIFTING DOWNSTREAM.  ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE MAY TRIGGER SOME ISOLD 
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI...BUT WE KEPT IT AS A SLIGHT CHC IN THE 
GRIDS.  THESE MAY BE TIED MORE TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF THE DAY.  
EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER THU AND FRI NIGHTS.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY 
IN THE 50S WITH PERHAPS A FEW READINGS CLOSE TO 60F FRI NIGHT IN THE 
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND MID HUDSON VALLEY.  HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE 
TO NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE 
VALLEYS...WITH 70-75F READINGS COMMON OVER THE MTNS.

SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC 
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THE MEAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH 
RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY UPSTREAM.  WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE S/SW FLOW 
ALOFT WILL FOCUS SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF 
A WARM FRONT JUST EAST OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  THE HUMIDITY WILL 
BE ON THE INCREASE...AS THE SFC FEW DEWPTS WILL BE RISING BACK INTO 
THE L60S WITH SOME MID 60S POSSIBLE.  THE SHOWER COVERAGE MAY BE A 
BIT MORE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...OUR FCST 
REFLECTS CHC VALUES NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT WITH 
SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  AN ISOLD THREAT OF 
THUNDERSTORMS WAS INCLUDED EVERYWHERE WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY 
AND SOME INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE FOR EARLY AUGUST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. DUE TO SPARSE
COVERAGE...WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH IN THE TAFS.

HOWEVER..A MORE WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND RATHER INTENSE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. WILL MENTION PREVAILING RAIN AND MVFR WITH PROB30 FOR
TSRA WITH IFR CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. THE AREA THAT COULD
SEE GUSTY TSRA WOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH OF KALB...INCLUDING THE
KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. WILL REFINE FORECAST FURTHER WITH SUBSEQUENT
SET OF TAFS.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KT...BECOMING
VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AROUND 5-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS STORM WILL
DEPART MONDAY NIGHT AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
MID WEEKS WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT PLAINS BUILDING SLOWLY EAST AND A LARGE DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

A RAINY PERIOD WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MONDAY. SO...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATER THAN
60 PERCENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRYER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WITH RH VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT.

WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 15 MPH OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST MONDAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH...DIMINISHING
TO 15 MPH OR LESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TOTAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...POOR
DRAINAGE LOCATIONS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS







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