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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 220831
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
430 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE 
MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE NEW 
ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND 
INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR 
FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO 
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TODAY/...
LOOKING AT SURROUNDING RADARS AND MOVEMENT OF ANY RAIN AREAS...IT 
WOULD APPEAR THAT NOT MUCH RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE FORECAST 
AREA THIS MORNING...SO HAVE FORECAST CHANCE POPS IN ALL AREAS. LATER 
TODAY...AS THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE/PCPN BEGINS TO TAKE 
SHAPE AROUND THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW...POPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO 
LIKELY LEVELS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH A BRISK NORTHERLY WIND 
AND LOTS OF CLOUD COVER...TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE THAT MUCH 
FROM CURRENT READINGS. HAVE FORECAST HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 40S TO 
MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GULF OR MAINE TONIGHT AND 
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF 
PCPN MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO RISE TO 
CATEGORICAL LEVELS EARLY TONIGHT...AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MOST OF 
THURSDAY.

THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW HEAVY AND HOW LONG PCPN 
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO HAVE 
TAKEN A CONSENSUS APPROACH AND LOWER POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...DROPPING 
TO CHANCE LEVELS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...POPS ARE FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE TO DECREASE...REACHING ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT BY LATE IN THE 
DAY. 

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT VARY 
MUCH BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS. LOWS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE 
IN THE LOW OR MID 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN 
AREAS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. FRIDAY IS 
THE TRICKIER DAY IN TERMS OF TEMP FORECASTS. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST 
HIGHS IN THE 50S...BUT IF CLOUDS AND PCPN PERSIST AS SOME MODELS 
SUGGEST...THEN HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE COASTAL LOW THAT WILL HAVE IMPACTED 
THE REGION MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK FINALLY PULLING AWAY INTO THE 
CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE RIDGING INTO SATURDAY 
MORNING WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES 
CONTINUING TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT 
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA. IT 
WILL BE MILD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH 
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST 
LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS SATURDAY 
NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. MOST OF THE SHOWER 
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A NORTHWEST 
FLOW REGIME FAVORING UPSLOPE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND 
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL 
BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE DUE TO DECENT JET DYNAMICS DESPITE LACK OF 
MOISTURE. DEPENDING ON HOW MANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE OCCUR ON 
SUNDAY...TEMPS COULD END UP SLIGHTLY COOLER OR MUCH COOLER THAN 
SATURDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER 
LOW. WILL STILL MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY WRAP-AROUND/UPSLOPE SHOWERS. VALLEY 
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ALBANY SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS A 
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WITH THE HIGH 
CRESTING TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON...A WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED 
WITH WARMING ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE DECENT MIXING FOR THIS TIME OF 
YEAR. TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND BY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE 
VALLEYS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OFF THE 
CAROLINA COAST...AN EVEN WARMER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL SET 
UP FOR TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO POTENTIALLY REACH THE 
MID TO UPPER 60S WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/..
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL 
PROVIDE A MOIST NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE 
NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. 

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS HAS DECREASED SO WILL ONLY MENTION VCSH FOR THE 
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CIGS HAVE LOWERED INTO IFR RANGE AT 
MOST OF THE TERMINALS AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN IFR RANGE WITH 
OCCASIONAL LOWER-END MVFR LEVELS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. 
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A 
STEADY RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS THE COASTAL LOW 
TRACKS CLOSER TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MVFR/IFR WILL CONTINUE WITH 
MOIST LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTING.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS...INCREASING TO 
10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS AS THE COASTAL LOW 
STRENGTHENS.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PDS RA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA...RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. 
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE 
MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE NEW 
ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND 
INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR 
FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO 
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE 
WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER 
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. OCCASIONAL RAINFALL IS 
EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND 
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY 
OCCUR...ESP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO 
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA 
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK...WITH LOCALIZED 
AMOUNTS UP TO THREE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR 
OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS 
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF 
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN 
CATSKILLS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/KL
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM









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