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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 020241
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1040 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM...PER THE H2O VAPOR LOOP...SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IS 
SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION WITH MOISTURE RETURN/ADVECTION NOW 
UNDERWAY.  00Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL A CAP AT AND JUST BELOW H600 WITH 
THE TOP OF THE INVERSION AT +1C.  SEEMS THE 00Z/NAM MIGHT BE TOO 
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS 
WHICH IS ALSO SUGGESTED IN THE HRRR.  SO WE WILL KEEP POPS JUST 
BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT.  THE 11U-3.9U IMAGERY SUGGESTS 
STRATUS WAS JUST BEGINNING TO EXPAND OVER THE REGION BUT STILL AMPLE 
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST TO KEEP THE THREAT FOR FOG FORMATION.  
CURRENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE NARROWED SINCE THE LAST ESTF SO NO 
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.  PER HOURLY TRENDS...DID RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS 
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION.  

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLOUDS AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SOME SUN SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH WELL INTO THE 80S FOR HIGHS...BUT WILL DEPEND ON
THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...WITH PERHAPS EVEN ISOLATED MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER. 

OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
AND A LOW LEVEL JET SEGMENT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION FOR A BIT OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A DECENT
BOUNDARY LAYER EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SHOULD
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL. PWATS COULD
BE QUITE HIGH...SO THE USUAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND STANDING
WATER IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE COULD OCCUR IN THUNDERSTORMS.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE BY DAYBREAK. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S...BUT
THEN DEEPER DRYING SHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH
MORE NOTICEABLE DROP IN THE HUMIDITY. BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
COOL A LITTLE BUT WITH CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE AND WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS...HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH JUST THE START OF WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. QUITE A BIT OF SUN ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS UP DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE 
NORTHEAST SHIFTING OFFSHORE WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND AN 
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 
THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY...GREAT LAKES REGION...AND MIDWEST 
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS.  COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY INTO 
MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE 
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SE CANADA.

THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFF THE SRN NEW 
ENGLAND AND LONG ISLAND COAST.  THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL.  
THE FCST AREA COULD GET UNDER THE ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF THE MID 
AND UPPER LEVEL JET.  H850 TEMPS MAY RISE A COUPLE OF STANDARD 
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE LATEST 12Z GFS INDICATING H850 
TEMPS OF +17C TO +19C FOR FRIDAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRIGGER 
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH A PRE FRONTAL SFC 
TROUGH...ESPECIALLY LATE FRI PM WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.  
LOWS WILL BE IN THE M50S TO NEAR 60F OVER THE MTNS AND HILLS...WITH 
60-65F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS.  MAX TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSE TO THE 
LATEST WPC VALUES WITH MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS /A FEW 90F 
READINGS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY/...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS 
AND MTNS.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SFC DEWPTS 
MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO M60S.

FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...MOST ACTIVE PORTION OF THE LONG TERM WITH 
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  THE 
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY IS STILL VARIABLE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE 
GUIDANCE WITH THE 12Z CANADIAN GGEM THE FASTEST...AND THE ECMWF THE 
SLOWEST.  WE HAVE FAVORED A 12Z GFS/WPC BLEND WITH A CHC OF SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI NIGHT...AND THE BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION SATURDAY 
AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG IF SBCAPES OF 1000-2000 
J/KG ARE REALIZED.  NONETHELESS...A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN 
THE FCST ON SATURDAY.  MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE 
FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND 
U60S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND U50S TO L60S MAINLY 
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE IN THE M60S TO M70S 
NORTH AND WEST OF ALY...AND U70S TO M80S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL 
BE ENDING WITH THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SRN TIER.  SOME OF THE 
GUIDANCE HAS A WEAK WAVE FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND MOVE ACROSS 
NEW ENGLAND.  A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM MIDWEST AND 
W-CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION.  THERE MAYBE A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS OVER 
THE NORTH COUNTRY OF NY AND THE NRN DACKS...BUT SUNDAY WAS KEPT DRY 
AT THIS POINT WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS...AS H850 TEMPS FALL TO +2C TO 
+8C FROM NW TO SE OVER THE FCST AREA.  LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING WILL 
BE IN THE M40S TO M50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH MORE COMFORTABLE 
HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND HIGHS WILL BE COOL IN THE U50S TO M60S OVER 
THE HILLS AND MTNS...AND MOSTLY U60S TO L70S OVER THE VALLEYS WITH 
BREEZY CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE 
OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THE SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BE POSITIONED 
NEAR SE ONTARIO AND NRN NY MONDAY MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL 
WEATHER.  LOWS WILL BE WIDESPREAD IN THE 40S TO L50S WITH HIGHS ONCE 
AGAIN IN THE 60S TO L70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INITIALLY...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HOWEVER...LOW
STRATUS/FOG/MIST WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH AN INCREASED
PROBABILITY FOR IFR CONDITIONS. LOOKING AT THE TREND 24 HRS
AGO...WE WILL ATTEMPT TO FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND IN THIS SET OF TAFS.

FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF TUESDAY MORNING WITHIN A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF SUNRISE. THEN WE SHIFT OUR ATTENTION TO THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION FROM AROUND THE NOON HOUR AND CONTINUING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL PLACE A PROB30 AND
CONTINUE TO ADJUST TIMING PER TRENDS AS THEY EVOLVE DURING TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW ON WEDNESDAY. THE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK.

RH VALUES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT
WITH FOG AND DEW FORMATION TONIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...MINIMUM RH VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 15 MPH THIS EVENING SHOULD
BECOME SOUTH BY TUESDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 MPH OR
LESS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AT LESS THAN 15
MPH. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH 
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER 
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY 
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN 
MOVED IN.

ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT
EXPECT MANY IF ANY RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD
BE LOCALLY HEAVY PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS.

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER 
OF THE WORKWEEK. 


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...BGM/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS


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