Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Albany, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KALY 312118
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
418 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE REGION WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. IT 
WILL NOT BE AS COLD...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW 
NORMAL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND 
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. THE 
HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY AND  
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN 
MARITIMES TONIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THAT RIDGED IN FROM THE TN AND OH 
VALLEYS WILL WEAKEN...AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE W/NW FLOW WILL 
ZIPS TOWARDS NY AND NEW ENGLAND FROM SWERN QUEBEC AND THE ERN GREAT 
LAKES REGION.  THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED 
CLIPPER LOW DO NOT HAVE MUCH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.  THE 
SFC DEWPTS ARE VERY LOW IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO 10 BELOW ZERO.  
SOUNDING PROFILES ARE VERY DRY IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH JUST AN 
INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM THE W/NW TO THE S/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE WEAKENING SFC 
PRESSURE GRADIENT.  THE BEST CHC FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT ACCUMS 
WILL BE ALONG THE WRN SPINE OF THE SW/W DACKS...AND PERHAPS THE 
W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY.  ACCUMS WILL BE LIGHT ON THE ORDER OF AN INCH 
OR LESS. 

TEMPS WILL DROP OFF SLIGHTLY BEFORE THE CLOUDS INCREASE.  LOWS WILL 
BE IN THE ZERO TO 5 BELOW RANGE ACROSS THE SRN DACKS AND PARTS OF 
THE LAKE GEORGE REGION. SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE COMMON IN MOST OTHER 
LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY WHERE LOWS WILL 
BE NEAR 10F.

TOMORROW...THE MOISTURE STARVED CLIPPER AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
WILL STALL NEAR THE PA/MA BORDER AND CNTRL NJ WESTWARD INTO THE 
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY.  A 1030 HPA OR SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD IN 
FROM SE OF JAMES BAY.  THE SKIES MAY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE 
NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO -10C TO -15C NORTH 
AND WEST OF ALBANY...AND -8C TO -10C TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.  MAX 
TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL BY 
10 TO 15 DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND U20S FROM THE CAPITAL 
REGION SOUTH AND EAST AND TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO THE NORTH AND 
WEST...WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS.  

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE SRN TIER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND 
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TOWARDS 6 PM.  SOME LIGHT OVER RUNNING 
SNOWFALL MAY REACH THE SE CATSKILLS AND MID HUDSON VALLEY BTWN 4-6 
PM. SOME SLIGHT AND LOW CHC POPS WERE INTRODUCED THERE...BUT A DRY 
COLUMN MAY YIELD QUITE A BIT OF VIRGA AT THE ONSET. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS A VIGOROUS 
NORTHERN STEAM SHORT WAVE COMBINES WITH SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.


ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE WEAKEN SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES 
TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
TO TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST ON MONDAY. THERE 
HAS BEEN GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS 
IT HEADS OFFSHORE. THE GFS NOW HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE COAST 
ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF 
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. THE GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM 
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN OPEN WAVE ALOFT. 

SNOW RATIOS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE EXPECTED 
TO START OUT HIGH THEN TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY...WHILE RATIOS 
WILL REMAIN HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY AS YOU 
HEAD NORTHWARD. THE ENSEMBLE PROBABILISTIC FOR SNOW RATIOS INDICATE 
60+% FOR ALBANY AND 64+% FOR GLENS FALLS TO HAVE RATIOS OF 15:1 OR 
GREATER. 

ALL THIS LEADS TO CONFIDENCE TO UPGRADE THE WATCH TO A WARNING AND 
TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST 
AREA...NORTHERN HERKIMER...HAMILTON...NORTHERN WARREN AND NORTHERN 
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.  

BASED ON THE FORECASTED ONSET OF SNOW HAVE MADE THE START TIME FOR
THE WARNING 9 PM SUNDAY AND THE WATCH AT MIDNIGHT. BOTH RUN
THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST MOST INTENSE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM ABOUT 09Z-15Z 
MONDAY...IMPACTING THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME...WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET 
WILL BE AT ITS STRONGEST AT 60-70 KNOTS AND PASSING TO OUR SOUTH. 
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. THE SNOW
WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF LATE.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. THIS ALONG
WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER...TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DROP TO ZERO OR BELOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH 10 DEGREES
BELOW ZERO AND COLDER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. MAY NEED
WIND CHILL WARNING AND ADVISORIES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...HAVE HIGHLIGHTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND QUICKLY SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA 
TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER 
COLD DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW 
NORMAL.  
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES 
AND ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER 
SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE 
APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH 
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC 
LIFT PRIMARILY CONFINED TO UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN 
ADIRONDACKS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE 
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED BETTER DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS 
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...WITH A LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR 
MUCH OF THE REGION. EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT 
THIS TIME...BUT A COUPLE OF INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IS 
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE 
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE 
REGION WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY 
THURSDAY. THIS ARCTIC FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD 
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. 

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO 
FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT 
THE REGION HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR 
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT INTO THE MID 20S 
TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM...BUT ONLY 
RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH 
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE 
LOW 20S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 20S FOR MOST 
LOCATIONS SATURDAY...WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF 
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5 
ABOVE ZERO...AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM NEAR ZERO TO THE SINGLE 
DIGITS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS TO LOW AND MID TEENS ACROSS 
THE CAPITAL REGION...WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MID HUDSON VALLEY. 
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 
15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE ARCTIC 
FRONT. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL AS A LIGHT 
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS WIND CHILL VALUES TO PLUMMET TO 15 TO 30 BELOW 
ZERO. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO TO 
5 ABOVE ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RIDGE IN THIS AFTERNOON...AS A CLIPPER
LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND SE ONTARIO 
TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY SUNDAY MORNING...AND
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR
KALB/KPSF/KGFL/KPOU. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST BTWN 00Z-06Z. THE CIGS WILL LOWER TO 3-6 KFT AGL BTWN 06Z-
12Z. THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE AT KPSF. ONCE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES E/SE AFTER 12Z/SUN...THE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME PARTLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

W/NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM
THE N TO W AT LESS THAN 6 KTS OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE W TO NW AT 5-10 KTS SUNDAY LATE MORNING. 

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-MON: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN. 
MON NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
TUE-TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING TO OUR SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO THE AREA

CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ICE THICKEN ON
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ALBANY SEASON SNOWFALL TOTAL THROUGH JANUARY 30TH STANDS AT 40 INCHES 
WHICH IS 6.4 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.   

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR 
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR 
     NYZ038>041-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY 
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-042-043.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR 
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR 
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA







National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy