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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 262330
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
730 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL RETREAT SOUTH PUMPING
VERY WARM AIR INTO OUR REGION INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE MORE THAN SOME
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW...MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO OFF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT. OUR WEEK WILL END WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER...DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
500HPA RIDGE COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION WILL DRIFT
SOUTH LATE TODAY AS SFC HIGH CENTER SLIDES OFF THE ATLC SEABOARD.
MEANWHILE CDFNT MVS INTO CANADIAN E GRTLKS BY THIS EVNG...WITH
SOME INCR IN WIND GRAD. THIS WILL ENHANCE WAA AS H850 TEMPS INC TO
16-18C THIS AFTN. YSTDY MIXING OCCURRED TO 790HPA...AND A SIMILAR
MIXED LAYER WILL OCCUR TDY. BASED ON EXPECTED WAA TDY...USED MIX
DOWN TOOL TO 800HPA AND ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP TO ARND 90 IN
VLYS...WITH 80S ELSEWHERE EXCPT HIGHEST PEAKS WHERE UPPER 70S WILL
BE COMMON.

TNGT WARM AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS FCA WITH TD ARND
60...ALONG WITH SOME SCT MID AND HI CLOUDS TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO
FALL. USED 3 HOURS TEMPS TO EST MINS WITHOUT IMPACTS FM PVS OR
LATER 24 HOUR GUID VALUES. RESULT IS IS TNGT LOWS WILL LARGELY BE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WED 500HPA SHORT WV PASSES THROUGH OTTAWA VLY INTO N NEW ENG.
MAIN 500HPA RIDGE RETREATS SW AS TROF MVS ACROSS NE USA...AND THE
WK CDFNT PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. 

WITH SUBSIDENCE TO THE NW OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL PASSING OFFSHORE...ALL
THE DYNAMICS WITH CDFNT N OF RGN IN ONT/QB...AND H500HPA TEMPS ONLY
COOLING TO -9C OR SO (WARM MID LEVELS)...CDFNTS IMPACTS WILL BE
GRADUAL WED...LIMITED TO ISOLD -SHRA/TSTM...SCT-BKN CLOUDS. AS THE
COOLER AIR WILL ONLY GRADUALLY MIX DOWN DURING THE AFTN TEMPS WILL
STILL REACH 80S IN MOST AREAS,...WITH MID AND UPR 70S CONFINED TO
W ADIRONDACKS...AND HIGHEST TRRN ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA...BEGINNING ON
WED NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND
BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD BY FRIDAY. 

ANY LINGERING CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT
ON WED NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. SKIES WILL
THEN BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY BOTH THURS/FRI WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. VALLEY TEMPS LOOK TO REACH JUST THE 70S
BOTH DAYS...ALTHOUGH 850 HPA WILL BE WARMING ON FRIDAY....AS THE
HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFFSHORE...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL BE TRYING TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING
TEMPS ALOFT. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST...AND MOVING TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST. 

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WARM AND MUGGY...AS A STRONG S-SW FLOW AT
LOW/MID LEVELS BRINGS WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION. 850 HPA
TEMPS SURGE TO +16 TO +17 DEGREES C...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS
INTO THE 80S. WHILE SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS SHOULD STAY DRY...THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SOME DIURNALLY FORCED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST FOR SAT
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO
THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. STILL...THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY AND IT/S SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THE BEST CHC WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN AREAS...AND AT
DIURNALLY FAVORED TIMES OF AFTN/EVE. MIN TEMPS ON SAT NIGHT WILL
BE HELD UP DUE TO CLOUDS AND THE MUGGY CONDITIONS...WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO REACH THE 70S AD
80S...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS...WHERE MID
TO UPPER 80S IS POSSIBLE. 

THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA
ON SUNDAY...OR IF IT TAKES UNTIL SUN NIGHT/MONDAY. EVEN IF IT
MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY...IT MAY STALL CLOSE TO THE REGION DURING
SUN NIGHT/MON AS WELL. AS A RESULT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A
CHC FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME...AND KEEP IT
FAIRLY CLOUDY AS WELL. MIN TEMPS ON SUN NIGHT WILL BE MID 50S TO
MID 60S...AND HIGHS ON MONDAY MAINLY IN THE 70S.

THERE IS SOME HINT IN THE GUIDANCE THAT STRONG RIDGING MAY TRY TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. IF THAT IS TRUE...THEN TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
NORMAL DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH JUST
SLIGHT CHC POPS AND HIGHS FOR VALLEY AREAS ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS...AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME BR TO FORM IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS...KGFL AND KPSF. HERE HAVE FORECAST IFR CONDITIONS IN
TEMPO GROUPS. VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR KALB AND KPOU. AS FRONT
APPROACHES REGION TOMORROW...EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIP. ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT A SHRA/TSRA WITH FROPA TOMORROW...
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY PRECIP AT ANY TERMINALS TOMORROW. BEST
CHANCE /AND IT IS LOW/ WOULD BE AT KPOU. LOOKING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH...RH VALUES WILL RISE TO 85 TO 
100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD DEW FORMATION. SOME FOG COULD 
FORM NEAR BODIES OF WATER IN SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER 
REMAINS THIN ENOUGH OVERNIGHT. 

RH VALUES WILL ONLY DROP TO 45 TO 55 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH 
SOUTH WINDS BECOMING WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A SLIGHT TO LOW 
CHC OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.

RH VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TOMORROW NIGHT 
WITH DEW/FOG FORMATION AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF A 
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW EVENING. 
WHILE A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MOST AREAS WILL 
STAY DRY...AND BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH 
OR LESS.  THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO EFFECT ON AREA RIVERS AND 
STREAMS. ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND 
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW 
RIVERS TO MAINLY HOLD STEADY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE 
THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE 
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SNYDER
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...OKEEFE
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS







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