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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 241825
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
125 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COASTAL LOW LOCATED SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD REACHING NOVA SCOTIA LATE TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY RESULTING IN SOME SNOW SHOWERS. A SURGE OF UNSEASONABLY
COLD AIR WITH BE USHERED IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE DOWNGRADED LITCHFIELD COUNTY FROM A WINTER STORM WARNING TO A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

ULSTER COUNTY HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR BERKSHIRE...DUTCHESS...
EASTERN COLUMBIA AND EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES.

THE BULK OF THE STEADY SNOW HAS OCCURRED HOWEVER STILL NEED TO
DEAL WITH THE SYSTEM'S DEFORMATION BAND AS THE SHORT WAVE ROTATES
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE DEFORMATION BAND SHOULD IMPACT THE AREAS
JUST TO OUR EAST. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES
HAVE MAINTAINED HEADLINES TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE HAD A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY
WHEN THE PRECIPITATION LIGHTEN UP SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE MENTION
OF CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE TEMPERATURE ARE ABOVE FREEZING RAIN.

FOR THE LATEST SNOWFALL REPORTS FROM ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA PLEASE
REFER TO OUR PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS. WE DID GET SOME BANDING
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT EARLIER RESULTING IN 1
TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF SARATOGA COUNTY. HAVE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT AT THIS ADDRESSING THE
SNOWBAND MOVING ACROSS THE AREA NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...IN THE WAKE OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPARTING COASTAL STORM...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK AT TIMES...AND
SHOULD ALSO KEEP SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES
PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS LOW LEVEL FORCING INCREASES IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...THEN
EXPANDING INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL
AS UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN VT/NW MA TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS...OR PERHAPS EMBEDDED SQUALLS COULD ALSO DEVELOP...AND
POSSIBLY EXTEND INTO VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY N AND W. SNOWFALL
ACCUMS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
BY DAYBREAK...AROUND AN INCH ACROSS UPSLOPE AREAS OF SOUTHERN
VT/NW MA...AND A COATING TO UP TO AN INCH IN AREAS WHICH
EXPERIENCE ANY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS...INCLUDING SOME
VALLEY AREAS FROM ALBANY N AND W. MIN TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
REACHED IN MOST AREAS UNTIL DAYBREAK...WITH GENERALLY LOWER/MID
20S. SLIGHTLY COLDER MINS COULD OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT SHOULD BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP WITH
THE FRESH SNOW COVER IN PLACE.

SUNDAY...SOME MORNING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN...COLDER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION ON BRISK NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS.
AS THE FRONT PASSES...A PERIOD OF DEEPER MIXING AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING COULD ALLOW SOME VALLEY AREAS...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
ALBANY...COULD ALLOW TEMPS TO BRIEFLY SPIKE IN THE LATE MORNING
HOURS INTO THE UPPER 20S AND 30S...WARMEST ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY. THEREAFTER...TEMPS SHOULD FALL IN THE AFTERNOON AS COLD
AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL TRACK AND IMPACTS FROM A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. SOME RECENT 00Z/24 GEFS AND SREF MEMBERS...AS
WELL AS THE 00Z/24 ECMWF...STILL ALLOW FOR A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
FOR THIS SYSTEM...ESP AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST AND POSSIBLY CAPTURES THE SFC FEATURE OFF THE LONG ISLAND OR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. DUE TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY...WILL
KEEP SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR LATE SUN
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THE VERY LEAST...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY ABUNDANT IN THESE AREAS. IT WILL BE QUITE COLD
SUN NT/MON AM...WITH MINS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO FOR MANY AREAS...WITH EVEN COLDER MINS POSSIBLE SHOULD
THE HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS BE THINNER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
WINDS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...SO NO WIND CHILL HEADLINES EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. ON MONDAY...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO ONLY REACH THE TEENS
IN VALLEYS...AND SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT WILL BE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE 
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH QUIET WEATHER IN THE MIDDLE.
 
ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IT WILL BE A TOUGH CALL AS TO WHETHER 
OR NOT A COASTAL LOW IMPACTS AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE FA. THE ECMWF 
IS DECIDEDLY WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK FROM THE GFS AND GGEM 
POSITIONS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW 
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA. EXPECT LOWS MONDAY 
NIGHT TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO UPPER SINGLE 
DIGITS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. 

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT EXPECT FAIR AND DRY 
CONDITIONS AS A SPRAWLING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM 
SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON 
TUESDAY NIGHT BUILDS EAST ACROSS OUR REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE COLD THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. LOWS 
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO NORTHWEST TO THE 
LOWER SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM 
THE MID TEENS NORTHWEST TO THE MID 20S SOUTHEAST. LOWS ON WEDNESDAY 
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. 

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL BE SWEEPING EAST 
FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH 
OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS 
LIKE IT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY INTO 
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE SNOW POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST OF CAPE COD WITH A TRAILING 
TROUGH AXIS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO OUR REGION. SINCE THIS IS FAR OUT 
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND MUCH CAN CHANGE WITH THE TIMING OF THE 
SYSTEM AND ITS TRACK HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE 
POPS FOR NOW. EXPECT HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO 
LOWER 30S WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO 
UPPER TEENS AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 30S.

OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL FOR 
THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ONE LAST THIN BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TRACKING EXITING KALB AND HEADED 
TOWARD KPSF. JUST A LITTLE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW AT KALB THROUGH 
ABOUT 19Z. KPOU STILL HAS SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW LINGERING...BUT 
SHOULD END AROUND 21Z. THE THIN TRAILING BAND OF SNOW IS MAINLY 
SOUTH AND EAST OF KGFL AND KALB AND WILL AFFECT KPSF THROUGH 19Z OR 
20Z.  

BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS...SOME VFR CEILINGS AND 
VISIBILITIES WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY KGFL 
AND KALB...BUT LIKELY KPSF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KPOU 
COULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH 
THE RADAR TRENDS SHOWING LESS PROGRESS TO THE EXIT OF THE SNOW IN 
SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT ALL 
SITES THIS EVENING...THEN AN MVFR CEILING SHOULD DEVELOP AND SPREAD 
EAST ACROSS THE REGION AROUND 06Z...AND LAST THROUGH THE EARLY 
MORNING HOURS...PERHAPS TO 15Z. AFTER 15Z...ALL TAF SITES SHOULD 
RETURN TO UNRESTRICTED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT THIS 
AFTERNOON...SHOULD BECOME WEST THIS EVENING...THEN NORTHWEST LATE 
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  AFTER 15Z...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL 
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT AND COULD BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON..

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE 
DAYS.

A DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE TO 
SNOWFALL FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT 
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE 
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY WEST OF ALBANY SATURDAY NIGHT. 

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES 
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS AND RECENTLY HAS EXHIBITED A DECREASE IN GAGE
LEVELS /BELOW FLOOD STAGE/.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     NYZ061-065-066.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     VTZ015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/KL/JPV
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/JPV







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