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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 180233
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1033 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY 
WITH TEMPERATURES MODERATING TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS. HOWEVER...A WEAK 
DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOVE ACROSS 
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO 
THE AREA MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.  HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM CANADA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR...BUT A STEADY E/SE
WIND HAS PERSISTED OR EVEN INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREENS INTO THE BERKSHIRES...AND
LOCALLY IN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AS THE LOW LEVEL
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE CENTER OF THE STRONG SFC HIGH
RETREATING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND A WEAK SFC LOW TRACKS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS LOW LEVEL GRADIENT AND WIND FLOW
MAY PERSIST FOR THE BULK OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEREFORE...HAVE
RAISED FORECAST MINS BY 3-5 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH 20S
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WITH
LOWER 30S NOW EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY
REGION...AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN THE BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN
GREEN MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A ELONGATED DOMAIN OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY 
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL DOMINATE THE FIRST HALF 
OF FRIDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS. LATEST 12Z MODEL AND 
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SECONDARY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE 
COAST OF NEW JERSEY THAT WILL ENHANCE A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY 
WIND FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WIND FLOW IN CONJUNCTION 
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WORK TO FUNNEL INTO THE 
REGION A LARGE CONTINENTAL DRY AIRMASS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. 

THIS SHOWS A DECREASING TRENDS IN 12Z MODEL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE 
AND NUMERICAL CALCULATIONS OF A LOW POPS AND QPF SETTING UP FOR 
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LATEST 12Z MODELS RUN OUTPUTS SHOW AN 
AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING FASTER ACROSS NORTHERN 
NEW YORK ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT 
TRAILING THE MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOWER 
LEVELS. AS WE GO INTO 00Z SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...T850 
AND T925 WINDS WILL DRIVE TEMPERATURES AT THE RESPECTABLE LEVEL 
BETWEEN 1C TO 3C AND 4C TO 6C. THIS WILL SUPPORT A MAINLY LIQUID 
PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW 
MIXTURE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATION OF THE ADIRONDACKS WITH NO SNOW 
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGHEST POPS AND QPF WILL BE 
CONFINED TO THE ADIRONDACKS WHERE ONLY CHANCE POPS EXIST AS THE BEST 
UPPER LEVEL FORCING DOWNSTREAM OF THE ABSOLUTE VORTICITY ADVECTION 
ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE 
US/CANADA BORDER JUST NORTH OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. QPF AMOUNTS 
AT THIS TIME WILL BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON 
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO UPPER 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES 
WITH AN ENHANCES SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RANGE ONLY FROM NEAR 
FREEZING IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO MID AND UPPER 30S FOR THE REST OF THE 
REGION. 

AS WE GO INTO SATURDAY...WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A MORE WESTERLY 
DIRECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AS WE GO INTO 12Z 
SATURDAY. WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES...THE HEIGHT GRADIENTS WILL DEEPEN 
BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WHICH WILL LEAD TO GUSTY 
WESTERLY FLOW WHICH AT TIMES MAY GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH. 
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SATURDAY AS THE REGION SITS 
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LARGE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH LARGE 
SURFACE DIVERGENCE PRESENT OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON 
SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S IN THE ADIRONDACKS TO LOWER 
60S INT HE MID HUDSON VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY UNDER 
CLEARING SKIES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE 
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE 
PATTERN WHICH BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK. FLOW 
WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST 
TO START OUT THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES EARLY 
NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES INTO 
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS THIS OCCUR SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DIVE 
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA DIGGING A TROUGH OVER OVER THE 
GREAT LAKES REGION BY MID WEEK.  

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR 
PRECIPITATION INCREASING AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE 
SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH TIES 
INTO THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. AT THIS TIME THE 
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE TUESDAY. 

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND NORMAL SUNDAY WITH ABOVE 
NORMAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...COOLING BACK 
DOWN TO NORMAL FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...00Z/SATURDAY.
TONIGHT...SCT TO BKN CI/CS TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS.
FRIDAY...BKN CI/CS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING UP TO 10KTS. 

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY NO SIG WX. SATURDAY
NIGHT:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL
IMPACT. NO SIG WX. SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY: MODERATE
OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOWFALL WE HAVE IN THE PAST ONE TO TWO DAYS HAS 
MADE THE GROUND HAVE A GOOD MOISTURE CONTENT. RH VALUES WILL RECOVER 
TO VALUES BETWEEN 70 AND 80 PERCENT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

AS WE GO INTO FRIDAY...THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY 10 
TO 15 MPH. RH VALUES LOOK LOW...BUT NOT QUITE AS LOW AS THIS 
AFTERNOON. 

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS OF RAIN 
OR SNOW AROUND...MAINLY NORTH OF ALBANY. AMOUNTS LOOK 
LIGHT...GENERALLY WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.   

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THE WIND WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE 
DISTURBANCE AS IT BECOME BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK 
VALLEY/HIGHER TERRAIN AND CAPITAL REGION WHERE WIND GUSTS COULD 
EXCEED 25 MPH AT TIMES. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVERBANK ON THE SCHROON RIVER IS AT MAJOR FLOOD AND HAS CRESTED. 
BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST IT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW 
MODERATE FLOOD STAGE SATURDAY MORNING WITH MANY MORE DAYS UNTIL IT 
FALLS BELOW FLOOD STAGE. 

OVERALL LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME LIGHT 
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAINLY NORTH 
AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. MAIN STEMS RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO 
RECEDE. OUR NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IS NOT 
EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY. 

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/LFM
NEAR TERM...KL/LFM/BGM
SHORT TERM...LFM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/LFM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/LFM







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