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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 121726
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
126 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DESPITE A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY...BLUSTERY WESTERLY WINDS 
WILL MAKE FOR A BRISK AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER CHILLY 
TONIGHT...BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK TOWARDS MORE NORMAL 
LEVELS FOR FRIDAY...WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER. A STORM 
WILL IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME RAIN...ALTHOUGH 
SOME SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH THE START 
AND END OF THE STORM ACROSS HIGH TERRAIN AND OUTLYING AREAS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 126 PM EDT...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COMPLETELY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH PRESSURE JUST
OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OVER ONTARIO...THESE CLEAR AND SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...TEMPS ARE RATHER CHILLY. THE 850 HPA TEMPS
ON THE 12Z KALY SOUNDING WAS -13 C. WITH THE COOL TEMPS
ALOFT...GOOD MIXING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY
TODAY...BUT THE CHILLY TEMPS WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WARMING THAT
CAN OCCUR TODAY. TEMPS LOOK TO RISE A FEW MORE FROM CURRENT
VALUES...WITH VALLEY HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S...AND HIGH TERRAIN AREA GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
WITH THE GOOD MIXING IN PLACE...W-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
GUSTY...ESP IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...AND
BERKSHIRES. GUSTS HAVE BEEN 25-35 MPH THROUGH THE MORNING...AND
THESE LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL 
DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING...AND GO LIGHT OR EVEN CALM OVERNIGHT. 
THE EVENING SHOULD BE CLEAR...BUT A VERY WEAK DISTURBANCE AND WARM 
AIR ADVECTION WILL SPREAD SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT 
WHICH MIGHT PREVENT A COMPLETE FREEFALL OF TEMPERATURES. ALSO...IN 
MOST VALLEY AREAS...THE SNOW HAS "ROTTED" AND WILL NOT HAVE THE 
EXCEPTIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CAPACITY COMPARED TO "FRESH" SNOW. 

STILL...IT WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS...WITH A 
FEW SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL KICK 
IN BY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH...BUT GUSTING UP TO 20 MPH 
OR A LITTLE HIGHER. SUNSHINE WILL BE MIXED WITH HIGH CLOUDS. 
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND BY REACH NEAR 40 IN THE VALLEYS...30S 
HIGHER TERRAIN. 

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PULL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A 
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL COME OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
THE CLOUDS AND BREEZE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES UP WITH THEM NOT 
FALLING MUCH BELOW FREEZING WITH A FEW PLACES IN AND AROUND THE 
CAPITAL REGION POSSIBLY NOT EVEN REACHING FREEZING IN THE LOWER 30S. 

ALL THE MODELS SPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION INTO OUR SOUTHERN PARTS 
(SOUTH OF I-90) BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE 00Z NAM WAS AN OUTLIER IN 
THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY STAYED SOUTH OF I90. 
HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF AND EVEN CANADIAN MODELS BRING THE 
PRECIPITATION A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH...BUT ALL INDICATE THE HEAVIER 
AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SURGE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE 
IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.

THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE ENOUGH WARMING IN THE COLUMN ALONG WITH A 
MARGINALLY COLD AIR NEAR THE GROUND COULD BRING SOME FREEZING RAIN 
OR SLEET TO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE IS A CHANCE TEMPERATURES COULD 
REMAIN OR RISE JUST ABOVE FREEZING. EITHER WAY...WE WILL CONTINUE TO 
ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. (HWO). 

ON SATURDAY...ENOUGH WARMING SHOULD TURN MOST PRECIPITATION TO ALL 
RAIN (WITH PERHAPS A FEW STUBBORN POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET) 
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. AGAIN...STEADIEST RAIN 
LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AS A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 
DEVELOPS OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST.  
 
THE RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE SOME HYDRO CONCERNS BUT AT THIS POINT THE 
PRECIPITATION DOES NOT APPEAR HEAVY ENOUGH WITH WARM ENOUGH 
TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT ICE JAMS OR EXCESSIVE 
RUNOFF. MORE ABOUT THE HYDRO CONCERNS CAN BE FOUND IN OUR 
HYDROLOGICAL DISCUSSION. 

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO 
LOWER 40S. 

BY SATURDAY THE SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE WELL OFF THE 
JERSEY COAST. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE WILL IS FORECAST TO 
DIVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL SERVE TO KEEP OUR WEATHER 
UNSETTLED. AS THE COLUMN COOLS ANY PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT 
LOOKS COLD ENOUGH TO TURN SNOW...FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN...THEN EVEN IN VALLEYS BY DAYBREAK. AT THIS POINT SNOWFALL 
IN THE VALLEYS LOOKS TO BE COATING...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 
4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY SUNDAY MORNING. 

LOWS SUNDAY MORNING ARE PROJECTED TO BE AROUND FREEZING THE 
VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE 
REGION ON SUNDAY WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO 
PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. ECMWF/NAM/CANADIAN ALL HAVE THE 
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NY AND NORTHERN VT. THE 
GFS STILL HAS THE UPPER LOW FURTHER SOUTH...GENERALLY PASSING BY AND 
EXITING THE REGION THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...THE GFS 
HAS BEEN TRENDING NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...SO WILL BASE 
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. 
AS A RESULT...THE BEST DYNAMICS AND STEADY PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA. THE SOUTH 
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL FEATURE A MORE SHOWERY WEATHER PATTERN... 
WITH SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS FORECAST FOR 
SUNDAY. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON SUNDAY WILL BE 
MINOR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS WHERE UP TO 
ANOTHER INCH OF SNOW MAY FALL. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S 
TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND 
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 
UPPER TEENS AND 20S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. 

THE HIGH WILL ALREADY BE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY 
EVENING...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE 
GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND MOVING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. 
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A BAND RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE 
REGION WITH THE FRONT. THE PCPN TYPE WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE TIME 
OF DAY/NIGHT IT MOVES THROUGH. HAVE FORECAST 30 TO 50 PERCENT POPS 
MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT ANOTHER BLAST OF 
UNSEASONABLY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL RUSH INTO THE REGION ON STRONG 
NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S. 
HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH TEMPS LIKELY 
FALLING LATER IN THE DAY. 

MUCH COLDER DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL 
BE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS OVER THE 
ADIRONDACKS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S...WHICH IS 
ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A CLEAR SKY WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS 
THE WEATHER.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION 
TOMORROW MORNING WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TIMED TO AFFECT OUR 
REGION SATURDAY.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL 
DIMINISH TO LIGHT THIS EVENING.  WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE 
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK... 

FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -PL/-RA/-SN LATE.
SAT-SAT NT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SHRA/-SHSN.
SUN NT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WARMER TEMPERATURES HAVE ALLOWED FOR SNOW MELT TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE SNOWPACK AT ALBANY AIRPORT
WAS 10 INCHES ON MONDAY...BUT MELTING HAS NOW LEFT LESS THAN AN
INCH THIS MORNING ACCORDING TO THIS MORNING/S 12Z KALB
OBSERVATION.

SOME SMALL RISES HAVE BEEN SEEN ON AREA HYDROGRAPHS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...RIVER ICE REMAINS
IN PLACE ON MANY MAIN STEM RIVERS. SOME SMALLER RIVERS AND
STREAMS MAY BE STARTING TO LOSE THEIR ICE...BUT THE ICE IS LIKELY
JUST BEING PUSHED DOWNSTREAM AND PILING UP INTO THE LARGER RIVERS
AND LAKES.

ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MINOR FLOODING IN AN ISOLATED
LOCATION BETWEEN TODAY AND TOMORROW...MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO
JUST SEE SOME DIURNAL MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK...WITH RIVER ICE
REMAINING IN PLACE. THE ONLY RIVER POINT CURRENTLY ELEVATED IS AT
EAGLE BRIDGE...WHICH IS AT ACTION STAGE...AND THE RIVER THERE IS
STILL ICE COVERED AS WELL.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OR A
WINTRY MIX FOR LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...IT LOOKS
TO GO OVER TO MAINLY RAIN. QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE BETWEEN O.50
TO 1.00 INCH...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN AND HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS. THE PRECIP COULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW...ESP IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BEFORE ENDING SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE LATEST MMEFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST RIVERS MAY RISE 1-3 FEET DURING
THE UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM. IT IS STILL HARD TO SAY IF THIS
RAINFALL AND THESE RISES WILL BE ENOUGH TO BREAK UP RIVER ICE.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S DURING THIS
EVENT...SO IT WILL NOT BE EXCESSIVELY WARM ALONG WITH THE
RAINFALL. IF RIVER ICE WERE TO BREAKUP...IT WOULD BE MOST LIKELY
TO OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS STREAMS...THE SMALLER RIVERS
IN DUTCHESS AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE HOUSATONIC AND
HOOSIC BASINS. AT THIS POINT...NO FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN
EFFECT...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
40S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW FREEZING...SNOW MELT WILL PROBABLY
FOLLOW A TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN. 

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM 
AVIATION...NAS 
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS



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