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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 011035
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
630 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO SOME SUNSHINE AND VERY WARM 
TEMPERATURES TODAY. IT WILL REMAIN HUMID. TEMPERATURES COULD TURN 
EVEN HOTTER ON TUESDAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE 
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW 
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...DEALING WITH PATCHES TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS OUR 
ENTIRE REGION. THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. GROUND TRUTH 
INDICATED VISIBILITY GENERALLY BETTER THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE...SO 
AT THIS TIME...WE PLAN NO DENSE FOG ADVISORIES OR SPECIAL STATEMENTS 
REGARDING THE FOG. 

AFTER THE FOG AND ANY STRATUS BURNS OFF...WE WILL HAVE A PARTLY TO 
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. THIS AIR MASS IS WARM ALOFT...AND WITH ANY 
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY SOAR THROUGH THE 70S...AND 
CREST INTO THE 80S THIS AFTERNOON...LOCALLY MID 80S IN THE CAPITAL 
REGION...UPPER 80S WELL SOUTH AND LOWER 80S NORTH AND WEST OF THE 
CAPITAL REGION. 

DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...IN THE 65-70 RANGE. THIS WILL 
TRANSLATE TO APPARENT TEMPERATURES (COMBINING THE AIR TEMPERATURE 
AND HUMIDITY)...PUSHING INTO THE 90-95 RANGE ACROSS MOST VALLEY 
AREAS.  

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED INSTABILITY TODAY...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 
1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...THEY ALSO INDICATED A PRETTY GOOD CAP (WARMING 
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE)...EVEN TO THE SOUTH. OUR LATEST 
HRRR INDICATED SOME "POPCORN" CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION 
THIS AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD. 

THERE IS THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WHICH COULD FOCUS 
CONVECTION ALONG WITH MORE MOISTURE. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS 
FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-40) WELL SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...SLIGHT 
POPS (20) IN AND AROUND THE CAPITAL REGION...NO POPS (LESS THAN 15 
PERCENT) WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE THE AIR WILL BE A 
LITTLE DRIER. 

A LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LEFTOVER CONVECTION WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING US 
WITH A RAINFREE BUT MUGGY OVERNIGHT. MORE PATCHES OR EVEN AREAS OF 
FOG WILL FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S...CLOSE TO 70 
IN THE TRI-CITY REGION. 

TUESDAY...A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AHEAD OF 
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPERATURES LOOK TO 
RAMP UP TO ABOUT +18C. WITH ANY MORNING AND MIDDAY 
SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER THAN 
TODAY...80S...TO NEAR 90 JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. THE ONLY 
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE ADIRONDACK PARK WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND 
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD 
FRONT...WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD TO THE UPPER 70S.      

APPARENT TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE FORECASTED TO REACH 
THE UPPER 90S IN PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GENERALLY LOWER 
TO MID MOST OTHER VALLEY AREAS...80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT (AND PERHAPS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH) 
WILL ADVANCE OVER MOST OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY 
EVENING HOURS. THIS FRONT PRODUCED QUITE OF BIT OF THUNDERSTORM WIND 
DAMAGE AND SOME LARGE HAIL IN THE MID WEST. 

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR A LITTLE 
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. IT DOES APPEAR THE BEST FORCING WILL 
ACTUALLY LIFT INTO CANADA AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER 
LEVEL JET MOVES THAT WAY. 

NEVERTHELESS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE (ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT)...AND MOISTURE...TO GENERATE 
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AN ORGANIZED LINE COULD EVEN FORM. FOR 
NOW...SINCE WE ARE NOT OFFICIALLY OUTLOOKED BY SPC...WE WILL ONLY 
MENTION POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY 
SINCE PWAT VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO 2 INCHES OR 
BETTER...EXCEEDING 70% OF NORMAL AMOUNTS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. 

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AT 
THIS POINT...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST AND BE 
REPLACED BY SOMEWHAT DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT 
LOOKS TO WANE BY MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY LOOK TO 
FALL BACK INTO THE MID 50S TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALBANY...60-65 
FURTHER SOUTH. 

AN AIRMASS ORIGINATING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING A GUSTY 
NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL DROP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 50S ON 
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE 
NORMAL...RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...LOCALLY AROUND 80 IN 
ALBANY. HOWEVER...WITH THE BREEZE AND LOWER HUMIDITY...IT WILL BE 
MORE PLEASANT OUTDOORS. 

A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT ON WEDNESDAY AND LIGHT WIND WILL ALLOW 
TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR 
AREA...EXCEPT MID OR UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND 
SOUTHERN GREENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND 
INCREASINGLY WARM TEMPS AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ON THE 
WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE 
COAST. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF 
SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER FRIDAY AFTN AS A COLD APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT 
LAKES. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND A 
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 
50S TO LOWER 60S. 

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEKEND 
ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS. SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS 
TO HOW FAST THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS THE 
FASTEST OF ALL AND ACTUALLY HAS THE FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 
REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH PCPN ENDING. ECMWF LINGERS THE FRONT 
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS 
THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN WITH THE FRONT SOUTH 
AND EAST OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF 
SHOWERS CONFINED TO FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. CANADIAN SEEMS 
TOO FAST...SO TAKEN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY 
NIGHT...THEN CLEARING AND COOLER ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH 
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN 
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. 
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 
MID 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER 
SUNRISE AT THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF TAF SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND 
CLEARING SKIES ABOVE LEADS TO AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE 
REGION. AT KPOU THE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR AND KPOU STILL 
HAS A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AS OF 06Z...SO HAVE ONLY FORECAST OCCASIONAL 
MVFR FOG THERE THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER AROUND 13Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL 
RETURN TO ALL THE TAF SITES. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME 
WEAK INSTABILITY COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS MONDAY 
AFTN...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE TAF FORECASTS FROM AROUND 19Z 
THRU 00Z TUESDAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND 
LIGHT WINDS...SO FOG FORMATION IS LIKELY AGAIN. HAVE ALREADY 
FORECAST MVFR FOG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE 
MORNING...THEN BECOMING SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS DURING 
THE REST OF THE DAY...THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN MONDAY 
NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

LATE MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. FOG AND STRATUS. 
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY PM SHRA...TSRA. 
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC SHRA...TSRA. 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY WILL FEATURE PATCHES OF FOG TO START THE DAY. A STRAY SHOWER 
OR THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH OF 
ALBANY...BUT THAT WILL BE EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE.

WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND...MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...RH VALUES 
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY...ONLY DROPPING TO THE 55-65 PERCENT 
RANGE. IT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE (ONCE THE 
FOG BURNS OFF). 

LOOK FOR A FULL RECOVERY TONIGHT WITH MORE FOG AND RH VALUES NEAR 
100 PERCENT. 

TUESDAY WILL BE VERY WARM ONCE MORE. SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BURN THE 
FOG AWAY PERHAPS A LITTLE QUICKER THAN TODAY. BY AFTERNOON 
THOUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH...LIKELY TRIGGERING ANOTHER 
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD CONTAIN 
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. 

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT 
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HOLD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WERE POCKETS OF ONE INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL...MAINLY NORTH 
AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON SUNDAY. MOST AREAS HOWEVER 
RECEIVED WELL UNDER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WAS LITTLE IF ANY 
IMPACT ON MAIN STEM RIVERS SINCE WE HAD BEEN DRY BEFORE THIS RAIN 
MOVED IN.

ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AND 
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ON OUR WATERSHED.

TUESDAY COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY. WE EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL LOOKS TO 
BE MAINLY UNDER AN INCH SO ONCE AGAIN WE DO NOT EXPECT MANY IF ANY 
RISES ON THE RIVERS. HOWEVER...RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY 
PRODUCING THE USUAL PONDING PROBLEMS. 

DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY WEDNESDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER 
OF THE WORKWEEK. 


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV









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