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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 040523
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
123 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF MIDNIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE AN ATTEMPT TO REBUILD THE STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
2/3RDS OF THE REGION. FROM SATELLITE INTERPRETATION...AT THE
PRESENT TIME THE DECK IS MAINLY SCATTERED. HOWEVER...HOURLY
RAP13/HRRR ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH AN INCREASE IN THE LOW
LEVEL STRATUS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF I90. MEANWHILE...SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ISO-SCT CONVECTION EARLIER
WAS POSITIONED ALONG THE I84 CORRIDOR AS LARGE ANTICYCLONE
POSITIONED NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER BEGINS TO EXTEND ITS
INFLUENCE INTO THE NORTHEAST AND UPSTATE NY. FOR THIS
UPDATE...INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE FOR THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CWFA ALONG WITH A REFRESH OF HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPTS. KEPT THE MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG AS WELL.


PREV DISC..
A CANADIAN SFC ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM S/SE QUEBEC OVERNIGHT.
THE SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FCST
AREA...AND SOME PATCHY FOG MAY MATERIALIZE. FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS VEERING FROM THE N/NE TO E/NE...SOME LOW
CLOUDS MAY LINGER WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. THERE EVEN BE SOME SPOTTY
DRIZZLE ALONG THE UPSLOPE PORTIONS OF THE SE CATSKILLS/LITCHFIELD
HILLS. LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE FCST
AREA...AND ALLOW THE DEWPTS TO FALL INTO 50S FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION...NRN BERKS NORTH AND WEST...AND POSSIBLY SOME U30S/40S
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACK PACK. H850 TEMPS FALL INTO THE +11C TO +14C
RANGE FROM THE E/NE TO W/SW OVER THE FCST AREA WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO M60S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTH
AND EAST...AND 50S NORTH AND WEST...EXCEPT FOR SOME U40S OVER
PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN DURING THE DAY
FROM SE QUEBEC/NRN NEW ENGLAND. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE IN THE H850-H925 LAYER. THE LOW CLOUDS OVER SRN PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BURN OFF DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE WITH THE
ANTICYCLONE. H850 TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 12C TO 14C RANGE. OUR
FORECAST WAS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE LATEST NAMMOS/GFSMOS GUIDANCE
WITH HIGH TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT...BUT
MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH U60S TO U70S OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

FRI NIGHT...A PLEASANT LATE SUMMER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SETTING UP...AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES
OVER ERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. SOME PATCHY OR AREAS FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE
MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. WE HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE FCST
GRIDS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U40S TO L50S NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION WITH MID AND U50S TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.

SATURDAY...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OVER THE FCST AREA TO START
THE DAY WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING. ACTUALLY...A
CLOSED H500 ANTICYCLONE SETS UP OVER UPSTATE NY. MIXING DEPTHS
LOOK TO BE LIMITED DURING THE DAY...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN AT
LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. H850 TEMPS ACCORDING TO THE GFS WILL
BE IN THE 13C TO 15C RANGE. THE STRONG SYNOPTIC SINKING OR
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FCSTS DUE TO
THE LIMITED MIXING WITH U70S TO L80S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
FCST AREA...WITH U60S TO M70S OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE LABOR DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK NICE WITH THE RIDGE IN CONTROL.
THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFFSHORE WITH ANOTHER RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT LIKELY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS. SOME U40S ARE POSSIBLE OVER SRN VT...THE NRN
BERKS...AND SRN DACKS. SOME SHALLOW RADIATIVE FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AGAIN. SUNDAY...TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
START TO INCREASE WITH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SETTING
UP E/SE OF CAPE COD. HIGHS WILL BE IN LOWER TO M80S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO LABOR DAY WITH A RIDGE OF 
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION. ALOFT THE RIDGE IS 
FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT A BIT...BUT 500 MB HEIGHTS WILL STILL BE
AROUND +1 TO +2 STDEV ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SO VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH MID LEVEL WARMTH KEEPING A
CAP ON ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SINCE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...FULL SUNSHINE AND A WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN MOST VALLEYS
LOCATIONS LABOR DAY AFTERNOON.

DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. THEN A WEAK COOL FRONT APPROACHES FOR 
TUESDAY...BUT COULD COMPLETELY WASH OUT BY THE TIME IT REACHES OUR 
AREA AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE GFS IS 
SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE 
FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING. WILL MENTION 
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FROM AROUND THE HUDSON VALLEY 
WESTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH 
HUMIDITY LEVELS CREEPING UP AS WELL. 

A SOMEWHAT STRONGER COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...SO 
WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS. IT STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW COOL THE AIR WILL BE 
BEHIND THIS FRONT...AS THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE MAY STILL REMAIN ALONG 
THE EAST COAST. SO FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES 
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SUBTLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF DROPPING ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND EAST. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...A LIGHT
N-NE WIND HAS DEVELOPED AND DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY
AT KGFL AND NOW ALSO AS KALB. THE COMBINATION OF LOWERING
DEWPOINTS AND A PERSISTENT LIGHT BREEZE SHOULD HELP PREVENT
RADIATIONAL FOG OVERNIGHT AT KGFL/KALB.

MEANWHILE...KPSF/KPOU ARE STILL AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...FOR NOW.
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 60S F...AND SOME FOG HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED AT KPSF AS SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT AND WINDS HAVE BEEN
LIGHT OR CALM. WITH THE BOUNDARY JUST ABOUT TO COME INTO KPSF
SHORTLY...DRIER AIR WILL BE ADVECTED IN. WILL STILL ALLOW A TEMPO
FOR SOME MVFR BR THERE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THE THREAT
FOR IFR LOOKS TO HAVE PASSED. AT KPOU...WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF
MVFR BR THERE AS WELL OVERNIGHT...BUT IFR FOG DOESN/T LOOK TO BE
AN ISSUE...AS THERE ISNT AS MUCH OF A T/TD SPREAD AND SOME PATCHY
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN AROUND AS WELL.

AROUND SUNRISE...THE BOUNDARY WILL SLIP JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION.
SOME SCT-BKN STRATUS CLOUDS AROUND 3-4 KFT WILL DEVELOP FROM KALB
SOUTHWARD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH THE PERSISTENT N-NE
FLOW. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR THE VALLEY LOCATIONS...BUT COULD
BE MVFR AT KPSF FOR A SHORT PERIOD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. KGFL
SHOULD REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO HAVE CLEAR SKIES FOR THE ENTIRE
DAY ON FRIDAY.

EVENTUALLY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO CLEAR SKIES OUT BY FRI AFTN OR FRI EVENING
INTO FRI NIGHT. SOME RADIATIONAL FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE FRI NIGHT
FOR KGFL/KPSF WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN-LABOR DAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH 
THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING. HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN NEW 
ENGLAND TOMORROW WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS.  THE SURFACE 
HIGH WILL MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...AND 
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER.

AN EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY IS LIKELY TOMORROW MORNING WITH MAXIMUM
RH VALUES OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO
55 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER EXCELLENT RECOVERY OF
95 TO 100 PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION SATURDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW...AND BECOME LIGHT TO CALM FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING...AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION....OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH FROM ANY OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. 

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TUESDAY INTO THE MID WEEK. 

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA



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