Skip Navigation Linkswww.nws.noaa.gov 
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
Albany, NY banner image
 
 

Area Forecast Discussion
Latest Versions  [Current][-1][-2][-3][-4][-5][-6][-7][-8][-9]



000
FXUS61 KALY 192112
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
412 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST AT THE SURFACE
FOR THE WEEKEND...SLIDING OFFSHORE MONDAY.  SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF
CLOUDS.  MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE
GREAT PLAINS WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND MILDER
TEMPERATURES IN OUR REGION. AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY SHOWERS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD AND TEMPERATURES EVEN MILDER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM EST...

TONIGHT...TOUGH CALL ON OVERALL CLEARING POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. 
THERE SHOULD BE DRIER AIR GRADUALLY SEEPING SOUTHWARD...BUT THE 
INVERSION REMAINS QUITE STRONG...AND WINDS DECREASE IN THE LOWER 
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND VEER MORE INTO THE N TO NE. THIS MAY 
REDUCE OVERALL DOWNSLOPING POTENTIAL WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON 
RIVER VALLEY WHERE SOME BREAKS OCCURRED DURING THIS AFTERNOON. 
SO...AT THIS TIME...HAVE INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THIS 
EVENING...THEN TRENDED SKY COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY LATER TONIGHT 
WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...ESP N OF ALBANY...WHILE HOLDING 
ONTO THE CLOUDS MORE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. FARTHER 
EAST...FROM SOUTHERN VT INTO THE BERKSHIRES AND NW CT...SOME DRIER 
AIR WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINE MAY 
EVENTUALLY EXPAND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND DAYBREAK. IN 
GENERAL...HAVE GONE A BIT ABOVE A MAV/MET MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS...WITH 
MID/UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY 
AND SOUTHERN VT...AND GENERALLY LOWER/MID 20S IN VALLEYS AND UPPER 
TEENS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY...AS A SFC HIGH DRIFTS E ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...THE LOW 
LEVEL FLOW WILL INITIALLY BECOME NORTHEAST...BEFORE GRADUALLY 
VEERING INTO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY 
AFTERNOON. THIS VEERING WIND MAY ALLOW CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS 
TO GRADUALLY BUILD BACK NORTHWARD LATE IN THE DAY. BEFORE THAT 
OCCURS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...ESP 
WITHIN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY FROM ALBANY NORTHWARD...AND PERHAPS 
ACROSS THE EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN VT AND NW MA. SHALLOW 
MIXING SHOULD ONLY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE LOWER/MID 30S IN 
VALLEYS...AND 25-30 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM) DURING THE PERIOD. 

SATURDAY NIGHT SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION AND ONTARIO/QB CANADA.  AT 500 HPA A GENERALLY FAST ZONAL
FLOW PREVAILS...WITH MOISTURE STARVED SHORT WVS OVER THE NE AND
MIDWEST. THESE WILL CERTAINLY ENHANCE MID LVL CLOUD COVER AND MAKE
MIN TEMP FORECASTING CHALLENGING. ECMWF/GFS KEEP IT DRY OVER FCST
AREA WHILE GEM HAS SCT -SHRA/SN IN SE. EXCEPT FOR 3 SREF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS W/0.01-0.03 QPF ALL THE REST OF SREF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE DRY.

THIS REGIME PERSISTS SUN INTO MON WITH 500HPA SHORT WVS EXITING
THE REGION SUN...AND SFC HIGH AXIS DRIFTING EAST TO THE E SEABOARD
SUNDAY AND OFFSHORE MON. IN FCA A RATHER NON DESCRIPT WEATHER
REGIME WITH SOME KINDA INVERSION ARND...WEAK DEC SUN...AND MAINLY
VRBL CLOUDS...NR TO SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY THE SEEDS OF CHANGE ARE BEING SOWN IN THE
GRT PLAINS AS A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL
LATITUDE TROF. CYCLOGENISUS ENSUES AND MON NT AS THIS SYSTEMS CUTS
OFF OVER THE UPR MIDWEST. MEANWHILE ALONG THE COAST THE HIGH HAS
MOVED OFFSHORE AND AN E-SE FLOW DEVELOPS AS DOES THE CSTL FRONT IN
THE CAROLINAS. BROAD SCALE ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE MID
ATLC STATES MON NT...CLOUDS THICKEN OVER THE RGN AND PCPN MAY
REACH THE S TIER OF NYS. MAY START AS -SN BUT WITH RAPID WARMING
TRANSITION TO RN WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK. TEMPS BY END OF PERIOD ARE
10 DEG ABV NORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RATHER UNSETTLED MID WEEK FOR CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS IS 
ANTICIPATED FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.

THE EXTENDED OPENS WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING DOWNSTREAM OF THE 
CANADIAN MARITIMES...AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES 
N/NE FROM THE DELMARVA REGION.  THIS IS ACTUALLY A SECONDARY WAVE OF 
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRIMARY SFC CYCLONE NEAR THE UPPER 
MIDWEST AND MS RIVER VALLEY.

SOME MOISTURE OVER RUNNING THE WAVE WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF RAIN 
AND A CHC OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING...BUT THE SFC AND BOUNDARY 
LAYER TEMPS SHOULD RISE WELL ABOVE FREEZING BY TUE AFTERNOON 
ACCORDING TO THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN GUIDANCE.  A BLEND OF THE 
GFS/ECMWF CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESSES WARRANTS A CHANCE OF FREEZING 
RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  WE WILL MENTION THE LIGHT MIX OF 
PCPN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN 
THE MID AND U30S FROM THE CATSKILLS...MOHAWK VALLEY...AND NRN 
REACHES OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND EAST...AND U30S TO M40S TO 
THE SOUTH AND EAST.  THE H500 FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH SHIFTS FROM 
NEUTRAL-TILTED TO NEGATIVELY TILTED TUE NIGHT.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF 
LULL IN THE PCPN TUESDAY EVENING...BUT A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE W/SW 
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR PERIOD OF RAIN TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY FROM 
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND WEST.  LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 
FREEZING...GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S TO L40S.  

WED-WED NIGHT...AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SET UP OVER THE 
NORTHEAST.  MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE STREAMING N/NE 
ALONG AN ANOMALOUS LLJ NEAR THE EAST COAST.  SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS 
OCCURS NEAR THE CAROLINAS WITH THE PRIMARY LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND 
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE THIS RUN OF 12Z 
GUIDANCE COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS IS THAT THE UPSTREAM OR PRIMARY 
CYCLONE IS MUCH STRONGER COMPARED TO THE SECONDARY WAVE.  AN 
ANOMALOUS H850 E/SE LLJ /40-60 KTS/ WILL IMPACT THE REGION WED 
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  THERE MAYBE BE SOME WIND HEADLINE 
ISSUES FOR PARTS OF THE REGION /SRN VT/...BERKSHIRES...TACONICS... 
AND LITCHFIELD HILLS/.  H850 TEMPS ROCKET UP TO +10C OR SO...WITH 
THE SFC CYCLONE DEEPENING AND INTENSIFYING TO ABOUT 970 HPA OVER THE 
CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z/THU.  A NARROW COLD FRONTAL RAINBAND 
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY 
EVENING WITH A BURST OF MDT-HVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF 
THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.  

A DRY SLOT MAY SWING ACROSS ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND SHORTLY 
BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.  COLDER AIR WILL STARTING SWEEPING 
INTO THE REGION FROM THE W/NW CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.  HIGHS WILL BE IN 
THE U40S TO L50S FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST...AND U30S 
TO M40S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.  THE RAIN WILL START TO TRANSITION TO 
SOME WET SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  
LOWS WILL BE IN THE U20S TO M30S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION REGION 
NORTH AND WEST...AND MID AND U30S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

CHRISTMAS WILL FEATURE SOME BRISK AND COLD CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED 
SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND WEST.  ANY 
ACCUMS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH A FEW INCHES OR 
LESS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SPINE OF THE SRN DACKS...AND THE 
SRN GREENS.  THE POTENT SFC CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO OCCLUDE AND 
FILL DRIFTING N/NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.  HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S TO 
L40S ON CHRISTMAS.

CHRISTMAS NIGHT TO FRIDAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT IN 
THE FLATTER MID LEVEL FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON 
FRIDAY.  SOME ISOLD-SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE I-90 
CORRIDOR NORTH AND WEST.  LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S...WITH 
HIGHS IN THE 30S WITH A FEW L40S OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW 
CT. 
 
&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD 
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE 
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.

THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AT KGFL AND 
KALB BETWEEN 18Z-20Z...EXPECT VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND POCKETS OF 
SUN TO FILTER IN A BROKEN CEILING BETWEEN 3500-5000 FEET. MVFR 
CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN IN PLACE AT KPSF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF 
THE AFTERNOON AS PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED 
UNDERNEATH A STRONG INVERSION. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST 
AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR TRYING 
TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...EXPECT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO 
REMAIN IN PLACE TO ALLOW FOR BROKEN CEILINGS BETWEEN 3000-4000 FEET 
AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU WITH MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUING AT KPSF. WILL 
GO WITH VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE NIGHT AT KGFL...KALB AND KPOU FOR 
NOW AS IT APPEARS JUST ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL BUILD IN AND SCOUR OUT 
SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO LIMIT MVFR CEILING POTENTIAL.

ALL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE VFR CEILINGS AROUND 3500-5000 FEET AFTER 
12Z SATURDAY ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD ON AT KPSF UNTIL AS 
LATE AS 15Z. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT VEERING TO THE 
NORTH AROUND 5 KNOTS AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. 
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF
SHRA...SHSN...FZRA. 
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANY 
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT. HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD 
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS EVE AS A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE 
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. 

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...IAA







National Weather Service
Disclaimer Privacy Policy