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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 220544
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
144 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING 
SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. A 
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A GOOD  CHANCE 
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM...SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED AS EXPECTED. SO IT SHOULD
BE DRY ACROSS ALL OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PATCHY FOG TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER-MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SUGGEST A DECENT MID LEVEL CAP ACROSS THE REGION ON 
TUESDAY...BUT LIKE TODAY WHEN ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPED UP...CAN/T 
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTN SO HAVE FORECAST SLIGHT 
CHANCE POPS IN MOST AREAS. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S WITH 
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
FORECAST AREA.

VERY WARM AND HUMID TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. 
ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD BECOME MAINLY CLEAR IN MANY AREAS...A GOOD 
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING VERY MUCH AND HAVE 
FORECAST LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. 

STILL DRY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT...DEPENDING ON THE 
MODEL...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY 
AFTN THROUGH EARLY EVENING...OR HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AND 
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO RISE 
TO LIKELY LEVELS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 
MID AFTN...LIKELY POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST 
AREA BY LATE AFTN...AND LIKELY POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE 
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT POPS ARE ONLY SLOWLY 
FORECAST TO DECREASE BECAUSE MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT SHOWERS WILL 
PERSIST WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 
70S TO AROUND 90. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT 
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA AND INTO THE MID 
ATLANTIC REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME LIGHT QPF BEHIND THE FRONT 
EARLY IN THE DAY...SO WILL HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH 
AND EAST OF ALBANY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL DROP NOTICEABLY BY LATE THURSDAY...WITH A 
NORTHERLY FLOW FROM CANADA PROVIDING THE DRIER AIR.

GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 
FRIDAY...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY 
LEVELS. A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC ON 
FRIDAY...BUT ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE 
AREA SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY POPS FOR NOW. THERE WILL BE A BROAD 
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER THE AREA...SO DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO POP UP.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS CONTINUED DRY WITH WEAK HIGH 
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS 
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...AS A CLOSED LOW IS 
FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND TAKE UP 
RESIDENCE NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THIS LOW...CONTINUED DIFFLUENT 
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A POTENTIAL QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE MAY RESULT IN A PROLONGED THREAT OF 
CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION WITH 
JUST A FEW PATCHES OF SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS PASSING 
OVER THE AREA. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE AND HIGHER LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE THAN RECENT NIGHTS...SOME IFR RADIATIONAL FOG WILL DEVELOP 
AT KGFL/KPSF.  THIS FOG WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF 
THE NIGHT UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ELSEWHERE...ENOUGH OF A T/TD 
SPREAD SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FROM DEVELOPING.

DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE. 
SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE...ALONG WITH FEW-SCT 
DIURNAL CU. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE CU WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS. AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT 
COVERAGE LOOKS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. S-SE 
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY 6 KTS OR LESS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A STORM SYSTEM 
BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD 
PREVENT WIDESPREAD IFR FOG FROM OCCURRING FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH 
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A STRAY 
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND 
EARLY EVENING ON TUESDAY.

RH VALUES WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES
GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE THE 40-50 PERCENTILE RANGE AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE 90 PERCENT. 

BY WEDNESDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AS A 
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION...WHICH WILL ENTRENCHED IN A 
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS.

THE SURFACE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT...BECOMING WEST TO 
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH JUST A LOW 
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EACH AFTERNOON. 

BY WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON...LINGERING INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

WITH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE CHANCE FOR 
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/JPV
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...FRUGIS/JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/BGM







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