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000
FXUS61 KALY 290952
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST TODAY. A FAST MOVING CLIPPER 
TYPE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD CLOUDS INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND 
PERIODS OF SNOW TONIGHT. SNOWFALL WILL BE HEAVIEST NORTH AND WEST OF 
THE CAPITAL REGION WHERE WINTER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. THE 
CLIPPER DEPARTS TOMORROW...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP 
CLOUDS AND THE CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS AROUND. MUCH 
COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ALONG WITH GUSTY 
WINDS.   

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EST...A CLEAR SKY...CALM WIND AND A FRESH SNOW 
PACK...HAS LED TO A FRIGID START TO THE DAY. MANY AREAS WERE ALREADY 
FLIRTING WITH ZERO DEGREE READINGS...EVEN BIT BELOW ZERO TO THE 
NORTH OF THE MOHAWK RIVER. 

WE WILL LIKELY DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR THREE BY SUNRISE. 

SUNSHINE WILL HELP ASSUAGE THE CHILL...BUT BY THE 
AFTERNOON...CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER CURRENTLY LOCATED 
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION. SNOW WILL 
FOLLOW...REACHING THE ADIRONDACKS FIRST AROUND DARK...AND EXPANDING 
THROUGH THE MOHAWK VALLEY THIS EVENING...THE CAPITAL REGION AND 
POINTS SOUTH AND EAST AROUND OR A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. 

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH CLOSE TO 30 IN MANY VALLEY AREAS 
THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO A PRETTY GOOD SOUTHERLY BREEZE HELPING TO 
MIX SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR DOWN FROM ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL 
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST THE ELEVATED AREAS. 


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES POSTED FROM 7 PM TO 9 AM FRIDAY FOR THE 
MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA 
REGION. 

PRECIPITATION SO FAR HAS BEEN SCANT WITH THE CLIPPER...BUT AS IT 
CROSSES LAKE ONTARIO...MORE MOISTURE WILL BE ADDED TO THE FEATURE. 
ALSO...AS IT ENCOUNTERS COLDER AIR OVER OUR REGION...THE ISENTROPIC 
LIFT WILL INCREASE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET MAX BARRELS 
NEW YORK STATE. LAST BUT NOT LEAST...VORTICITY WILL INCREASE AS A 
MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS AND GOES NEGATIVELY TILTED. 

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKS INTO NEW YORK 
STATE...IT WILL BRING A BURST OF SNOW WITH ITS LEADING EDGE OF AN 
ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL JET MAX...MAXIMIZING ISENTROPIC LIFT. 

EXPECT PERIODS OF SNOW TONIGHT...WHILE MOSTLY LIGHT...SHOULD INCLUDE 
SOME ELEMENTS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES APPROACHING AN INCH PER 
HOUR. ALSO...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WILL LIKELY 
ENHANCE SNOW RATES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...THE NORTHERN RIM OF THE 
MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION. THAT IS WHERE 
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED. IN THESE AREAS...WE 
EXPECT 3-6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL...GENERALLY HIGHEST OVER THE ELEVATED 
TERRAIN. 

FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD... 
LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED. THE LOWEST AMOUNTS APPEARS TO 
BE THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO LOWER LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE AROUND 
ONLY AROUND AN INCH IS EXPECTED. ALL REMAINING AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE 
ADVISORY AREAS...INCLUDING THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION AND ALL OF 
ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...LOOK TO GET 2-3 INCHES...WITH SOME 
LOCALIZED 4 INCH AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.           

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ACTUALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE TIME 
OF YEAR...GENERALLY IN THE 20S...EXCEPT FOR SOME TEENS ACROSS THE 
HIGHER TERRAIN.  

FRIDAY...THE CLIPPER WILL PASS TO OUR EAST WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT 
PERCHED TO OUR NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LAG 
BEHIND...AND A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FORM NEAR NEW YORK CITY 
BY DAY/S END. THE LAGGING TROUGH WILL KEEP WEAK ASCENT TRANSLATING 
TO SENSIBLE WEATHER OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW 
SHOWERS WILL BE MOST CONCENTRATED TO THE EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. 

THERE SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE IN VALLEY AREAS BY LATE IN 
THE DAY. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT 
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW "CAPTURES" THE CLIPPER WHICH WILL SLOW 
DOWN OFF THE COAST OF CAPE COD...BEING "TUGGED" BY THE SHARPENING 
MID LEVEL TROUGH. IF THE SURFACE LOW IS CAPTURED FAST ENOUGH...IT 
COULD PRODUCE A SHIELD OF SNOW AS IT RAPIDLY DEEPENS THAT COULD WORK 
BACK INTO OUR EXTREME EASTERN SECTIONS OF MA AND VT. IT IS LOW 
CHANCE BUT A POSSIBILITY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING ADDITIONAL SNOW 
ACCUMULATIONS FOR THESE AREAS PERHAPS UP TO SEVERAL QUICK INCHES. 
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW...BUT SOMETHING TO 
MONITOR. 

ONE THING THIS DEEPENING STORM WILL DO IS QUICKLY DRIVE THE ARCTIC 
FRONT THROUGH BY THE END OF FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE 
FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL...SIMILAR TO 
TODAY/S HIGHS...20S HIGHER TERRAIN...30 TO 35 VALLEY LOCATIONS. 

HOWEVER...AS THE ARCTIC AIR IS DRIVEN IN...A PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL 
RESULT IN RATHER STRONG GUSTY WINDS (BUT PROBABLY REMAINING BELOW 
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA) DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WINDS OUT OF THE 
NORTHWEST COULD GUST UP TO 40 MPH THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THESE WINDS 
WILL DRIVE IN MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A 
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE TO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE 
ADIRONDACKS...ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS REMAINING AREAS NORTH OF THE 
CAPITAL REGION...ZERO TO 10 ABOVE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. THE WIND 
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL AVERAGE 1O TO 20 MPH (WITH SOME HIGHER 
EVENING GUSTS) WHICH COULD PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND 
CHILLS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WIND CHILL HEADLINES MIGHT 
NEED TO BE HOISTED. 

SATURDAY SHOULD BE A MAINLY SUNNY BUT BITTERLY COLD DAY. THE WIND 
WILL ABATE SOME...BUT NOT ENTIRELY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE 
IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TEENS MOST OTHER 
PLACES...WITH A FEW LOWER 20S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER 
LITCHFIELD COUNTY. 

YET ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SATURDAY 
NIGHT. FOR THAT REASON...WE FEEL TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GET QUITE AS 
COLD AS WE THOUGHT BEFORE (DUE TO SOME CLOUDS...AND A SLIGHT SOUTH 
OR SOUTHWEST BREEZE). THEY WILL STILL COLD THOUGH WITH LOWS SLIGHTLY 
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...SINGLE NUMBERS TO AROUND 10 FROM 
THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTHWARD. THIS CLIPPER LOOKS TO BRING SCATTERED 
SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES...POSSIBLY 
TRANSITIONING INTO A PERIOD OF PURE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.        


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO SLIDE 
SOUTHWARD...HOWEVER...IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE IT SEEMS THIS FRONT WILL 
PROGRESS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH ON SUNDAY THAN WHAT WAS PROGGED THE 
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS WILL BE A KEY FEATURE FOR THE PENDING 
SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS STORM TOO HAS RECENT TRENDS 
POINTING FURTHER SOUTH TRACK REDUCING ITS IMPACT ACROSS THE REGION.

SUNDAY...
ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY 
DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO AS H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TO BELOW -20C.  THE 
BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE INTO PORTIONS OF THE DACKS AND 
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.  IT WILL BE COLD FOR THIS FIRST DAY OF 
FEBRUARY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...
AS SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS MORNING...UPPER TROUGH AND AMPLE 
MOISTURE COMING ASHORE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA ADVECTING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  
MEANWHILE...STRONG PV ANOMALY COMING ASHORE ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA 
IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LONG WAVE TROUGH.  THE 
INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS PV ANOMALY AND MOISTURE FROM THE FOUR 
CORNERS REGION INTERSECT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.  AS THE 
UPPER JET INCREASES IN MAGNITUDE...AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE INCREASES 
WITH SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ALONG THE I70 CORRIDOR.  THE BAROCLINIC 
ZONE WITH THE 00Z RUNS ARE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE 
CANADIAN MODEL THAT WOULD SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT QPF EVENT ACROSS THE 
ENTIRE REGION.  A CLOSER LOOK AT THE ECMWF/GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLES 
FAVOR NOW A FURTHER SOUTHERN SOLUTION.  BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED A FEW 
MEMBERS ARE FURTHER NORTH /APPROX 30 PERCENT OF THESE MEMBERS/.  SO 
WE WILL USE THAT AS OUR POP THRESHOLD +/- 10 ACROSS THE REGION FROM 
NORTH TO SOUTH.  

TUESDAY...
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION 
WITH A RATHER TRANQUIL YET CHILLY DAY SETTING UP FOR OUR CWFA.  THIS 
SURFACE HIGH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER 
TUESDAY WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.  
FROM HERE...MODELS DIVERGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS ANOTHER DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.  WHAT DIFFERS IS IF ANOTHER 
SURFACE DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FOR ANOTHER LIGHT SNOW 
EVENT /ECMWF/ OR A SLOWER MORE COMPACT MINIMAL SYSTEM /GFS/.  FOR 
NOW...WE WILL PLACE A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL. 

$$
&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS AS 
RIDGE FROM THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WAS IN PLACE.  A GRADUAL INCREASE 
IN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS 
AS NEXT SYSTEM...A CLIPPER...APPROACHES FROM THE MID WEST.  SNOW 
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT WHERE AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS 
ARE EXPECTED AND FORECASTED AT THIS TIME.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY DURING 
THURSDAY AT 10KTS OR LESS. 

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN. 
FRIDAY: MODERATE  OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY CHANCE SHSN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX. 
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN. 

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE 
DAYS. 

SNOW WILL FALL TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS IN THE CAPITAL REGION 
SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD...MODERATE AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH AND 
NORTHWEST. 

ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY MINOR 
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. 

THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. 

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES 
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED 
BY ICE EFFECTS. 

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST 
     FRIDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038>043-082>084.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/LFM









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