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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 231719
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
120 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE 
REGION WITH A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE 
CAPITAL REGION AS WE GO INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE IT 
WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY. TONIGHT A BREEZE WILL CONTINUE AS IT CLEARS 
AND TURNS COLD. SUNSHINE WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BUT 
THE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM...RAIN SHOWERS ARE NOW IN MUCH LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE
REGION THAN EARLIER THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS
AREAS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND THE
LITCHFIELD HILLS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OUT
OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE FROM THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION POINTS NORTH AND WEST.
HOWEVER CLOUD COVERAGE WILL HAVE A FIRM GRIP ACROSS THE REGION
GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...MID 50S MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...GUSTING UP TO 30-40 MPH
BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE USUAL PLACES OF THE 
CAPITAL DISTRICT...HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL MOVE BY WELL TO OUR EAST TONIGHT...BUT IT 
WILL "CAPTURE" A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS PROCESS WILL 
STEEPEN THE GRADIENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH 
MORE WIND. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN -4 TO -8 C 
OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL NOT DECOUPLE...IT WILL TURN 
COLD AS THE SKY GENERALLY CLEARS. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 
30 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 20S VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE WIND WILL 
ADD TO THE CHILL...MAKING APPARENT TEMPERATURES FEEL ABOUT 10 
DEGREES COLDER. 

THURSDAY WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL 
MODERATE A LITTLE TOWARD 0C. THE STIFF BREEZE WILL 
CONTINUE...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH ONCE MORE...WITH GUSTS UP TO 
AROUND 30 MPH OR BETTER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL 
MODERATE...CLIMBING TO 55 TO 60 DEGREES IN MOST VALLEY 
LOCATIONS...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OCEAN STORM WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO 
LOOSE IT GRIP ON OUR REGION. THE WIND WILL RELAX. THERE MIGHT BE 
SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING LATE BUT EITHER WAY...THERE WILL BE MORE 
OPPORTUNITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...DESPITE CONTINUED WARMING 
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TONIGHT/S 
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. 

FRIDAY...THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST THAT 
RAIN FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM...A WARM FRONT...WILL REACH THE AREA. THE 
00Z GFS AND NAM WERE A LITTLE FASTER BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION 
BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THE 00Z EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN 
MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND...WERE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH RAIN NOT 
REACHING OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER DARK.

FOR NOW...WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...LOWING CHANCES 
TO SLIGHT FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH LOW CHANCES TO THE 
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW FAST RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION 
WILL HELP DICTATE HOW MILD IT GETS. FOR NOW...WE KEPT THE THINKING  
THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AROUND 60 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND 
VALLEYS FURTHER EAST...WHILE HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO 
UPPER 50S TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE 
EAST AS WELL. IF THE RAIN WERE TO COME IN FASTER...THESE NUMBERS 
WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO BE LOWERED A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS 00Z 
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKING 
PATTERN THAT WILL LIKELY LAST INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

WE BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS 
EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.  THIS WOULD PLACE 
THE HIGHER CHC-SCT POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.  
THEREAFTER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS LATEST NEW TRENDS ARE FOR A 
NOW A DRIER SUNDAY AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA 
EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WESTERN NEW 
ENGLAND.  WE WILL LOWER POPS THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION.  
H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP BELOW 0C WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE 
EXPECTED.  THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF 
THIS LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE 
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A LESS PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHEN 
COMPARED TO THE GGEM/GFS/DGEX WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR 
WET CONDITIONS.  FOR NOW...WITH A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING AND A DEEPER 
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ADVECTING NORTHWARD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO 
GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WE LEAN TOWARD THE 
ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE /SEE PMDEPD FOR FURTHER DETAILS/.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE STRONG 
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EXITING THE AREA AND 
SHOWERS AT KGFL/KALB HAVE ENDED. LINGERING SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE AT 
KPSF/KPOU THROUGH AROUND 20Z...BUT KPOU WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS 
EVEN IF SOME -SHRA OCCUR. AT KPSF HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR 
MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z. AFTER 20Z EXPECT VFR 
CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS 
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 32 KTS. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT 
TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 16 TO 24 KTS...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON 
THURSDAY TO 14 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. 
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. 
FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA. 
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA. 
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30-45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT ON 
THURSDAY...

WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN 
VERMONT...AS OF 430 AM EDT...MOST AREAS DID NOT COME CLOSE TO 
REACHING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT. 

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AS AN 
UPPER AIR LOW MOVES THROUGH EARLY...EXITING LATER TODAY. 
HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THESE SHOWERS (EVEN WHEN COMBINED WITH 
THOSE OF LAST NIGHT) WILL ADD UP TO A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF 
RAINFALL. 

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30 
PERCENT...GENERALLY IN THE 35-50 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL DIMINISH TO A BREEZE TONIGHT BUT IN MOST 
PLACES...WILL NOT BECOME LIGHT. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH 
WITH THOSE HIGHER EVENING GUSTS. A FULL RECOVER IS NOT GOING TO 
HAPPEN TONIGHT AS RH VALUES PEAK AROUND 75 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES. 

THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SUNSHINE WILL 
PREVAIL AND TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH ABOVE 50F (EXCEPT IN 
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT). A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL STILL 
BE THERE...GUSTING 25-35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM AFTERNOON 
RH VALUES LOOK TO TUMBLE INTO THE 20S MOST AREAS (AROUND 30 SOUTHERN 
VERMONT AND ADIRONDACKS) BUT MIGHT EVEN DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THE 
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD. IT WILL BE MORE THAN FIVE 
DAYS WITHOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION. 


OUR OFFICE WILL COORDINATE WITH THE STATE LIAISON OFFICIALS 
CONCERNING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.  

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY 
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE 
DAYS. 

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS. 

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL










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