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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 192001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
401 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP ACROSS THE REGION AS OUR WEATHER
WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THIS WEEK. A SLOW MOVING
AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR WET WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
1014MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR KBTV PROVIDING A DELIGHTFUL MID AUGUST
DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. UPSTREAM...LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ALONG A DEWPOINT BOUNDARY WAS SLOWLY ADVECTING TOWARD THE I81
CORRIDOR. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE TO THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. WHILE SKIES WILL BE CLEAR INTO THIS EVENING...LATEST
NCEP MODEL SUITE AND HOURLY UPDATED RAP13 LOW LEVEL RH FIELDS
/H925-H800/ HAVE A RATHER HIGH SIGNAL OF THESE CLOUDS ADVECTING
INTO EASTERN NY OVERNIGHT. THEN WITH SOME UPSLOPE LATER
TONIGHT...THESE CLOUDS ADVECT/DEVELOP INTO OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
COUNTIES /WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY/. SO
OVERALL TREND FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER FROM WEST TO EAST.  

AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT...AND INITIAL CLEAR
SKIES...THE OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR PATCHY FOG FORMATION ONCE
AGAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER TONIGHT WITH MAINLY
50S...SOME UPPER 40S INTO THE DACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL BE UNDER INCREASING
CLOUD COVER...HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND THE RAISING THE PROBABILITIES
FOR SHOWERS. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE AND ENSEMBLES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER
WITH THE OVERALL QPF FIELD ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER AS
PWATS CLIMB 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE CULPRIT WAS THE
UPPER LOW SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR LOOP OVER THE U.P. OF MI. AS THIS
LOW TRACKS FURTHER EAST...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTHEAST CANADA
STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SQUEEZE BETWEEN THIS UPPER LOW
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE REATTEMPTING TO BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD.

AS THE CASE LEADING INTO THIS FORECAST...THE BEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT REMAIN ALONG OR WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER. AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES THROUGH
THURSDAY...FAVORABLE UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR THE CATSKILLS AND
DACKS MAY EXPERIENCE ENHANCE RAINFALL. WE WILL PLACE THESE AREAS
INTO LIKELY POPS BEGINNING LATER WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO ALL
OF THURSDAY. QPF AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH ONE INCH BUT FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME PER COORDINATION WITH NERFC.

AS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...WHILE LAPSE RATES ARE NOT TOO
CONDUCIVE...THE H850 LI/S /AKA SHOWALTER INDEX/ DROP TO OR JUST
BELOW 0C OVER MOST OF EASTERN NY. THIS WILL WARRANT THE
CONTINUATION WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...MOS GUIDANCE IS RATHER
CLOSE WITH AVERAGE HIGHS INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S AND SOME LOWER 80S
IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY WELL INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OUR AREA MIGHT BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN A 
CUTOFF LOW TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST...AND UPPER LATITUDE MID LEVEL 
RIDGE TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THIS SCENARIO 
MIGHT KEEP OUR AREA DRY WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. THE 
CANADIAN MODEL DOES BRING SOME SHOWERS INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY 
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BUT IS REALLY NOT SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST EUROPEAN 
AND GFS EXTENDED MODEL GUIDANCE. 

WE HAVE FOLLOWED WPC/S THINKING AND HAVE KEPT OUR AREA RAINFREE 
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 
SEASONABLE...WITH HIGHS 75-80 IN THE VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN 
EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...UPPER 50S 
LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION.  

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WILL 
SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE 
GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. 
THEREAFTER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME GROUND FOG 
DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY AT KGFL AND KPSF...BETWEEN 07Z-11Z/WED. 
HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP AND/OR 
PERSIST FOR A PERIOD OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD MITIGATE THE EXTENT OF 
FOG DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED MENTION OF MVFR 
CONDITIONS AT THESE TAF SITES...AND VFR ELSEWHERE. SHOULD THE MID 
LEVEL CLOUDS FAIL TO FORM OR BE LESS EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENTLY 
FORECAST...THEN GROUND FOG AND ASSOCIATED IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL 
BECOME MORE PROBABLE.

AFTER ANY POSSIBLE LOW CLOUDS/FOG BURN OFF BETWEEN 
11Z-13Z/WED...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN...WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS 
WITH BASES GENERALLY BETWEEN 4000-6000 FT AGL.

LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL TREND INTO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-10 
KT...THEN BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM ONCE AGAIN AROUND OR JUST 
AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL BECOME SE TO S BY MID MORNING WED...AT 5-10 
KT.

OUTLOOK...

WED NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. 
THU-THU NT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. 
FRI-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER DRY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE
WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TOWARD 90 AND NEAR 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT. MINIMUM VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
50S PERCENTILE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AT THIS TIME.
THE WEATHER WILL TURN UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A
SLOW MOVING AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. THE
HIGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY INCLUDING THE CATSKILLS. MODEL QPF HAS
INCREASE WITH UP TO ONE INCH BASIN AVERAGE WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER. DUE TO LOW RIVER LEVELS AT THE PRESENT TIME...MOST OF THIS
RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN RIVER BANKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

HERE ARE THE AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES FOR AUGUST
THROUGH THE 18TH...
ALBANY NY: -2.0 DEGREES
GLENS FALLS NY: -0.9 DEGREES
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: -2.4 DEGREES
BENNINGTON VT: -2.8 DEGREES
PITTSFIELD MA: -3.5 DEGREES

THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURE FOR ALBANY THUS FAR THIS SUMMER HAS BEEN
91 DEGREES.  WE HAVE YET TO REACH 90 IN THE MONTH OF AUGUST.

FOR MORE CLIMATE INFORMATION CHECK OUT OUR CLIMATE PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY/CLIMATE

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...KL
FIRE WEATHER...IAA/BGM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/BGM


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY




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