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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 010459
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1259 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT 
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY 
STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN FREE...BUT WARM AND VERY HUMID SO ISOLATED 
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH 
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1259 AM EDT...KENX RADAR WAS DEVOID OF ANY CONVECTION. A 
DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST AND IN ITS WAKE WAS SOME 
RIDGING ALOFT (WHICH INDUCED SUBSIDENCE OR SINKING MOTION). 

AS A RESULT...WE WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ALL "SENSIBLE" POPS (15 
PERCENT OR HIGHER) AND CAME UP WITH A 14 PERCENT POP FOR THE 
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL AROUND 70 AND FALLING VERY LITTLE 
IF ANY AT ALL. SAW NO REASON TO TINKER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS.

UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD BASED ON RADAR. NOT 
MUCH ELSE TO TINKER WITH FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS PREVIOUS GRIDS 
IN GOOD SHAPE. LOWS STILL FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70.

WE DID CONTINUE THE IDEA OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION...AND IT 
COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS. 

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT TO SOUTH AROUND 5 MPH.  

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS UPPER DYNAMICS EXIT AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT
REMAINS QUITE LOOSE...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...SO IT COULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MORNING TO
MIX OUT CLOUDINESS OVER THE REGION. ONCE CLOUD COVER DOES BREAK
UP...INTERVALS OF SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S.
IN SOUTHERN AREAS...CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOWEST TO BREAK UP AND
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS COULD SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. 

THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY WITH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING WESTERN AREAS DURING
THE MORNING. OF COURSE...TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAS NOT BEEN WELL RESOLVED IN GUIDANCE LATELY...AS EVIDENCED
BY THE QUICKER ONSET OF RAIN TODAY THAT KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. SO...WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING OF THE ONSET...
DEVELOPMENT AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...NOT STRAYING FAR FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IF THERE IS MORE SUN...MANY AREAS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE...WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90.

BASED ON PREDICTED INSTABILITY TUESDAY AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE TO A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL GRADIENT...AS WELL AS UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAYBE EVEN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PUT
IN THE GRIDS BECAUSE AGAIN...THE ONSET OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN IS
IN QUESTION AND IF IT COULD AFFECT THE TEMPERATURES AND
INSTABILITY.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIT TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRYER WITH MORE SUNSHINE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH COOLER IN HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO 
THURSDAY...AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE 
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARM 
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE COMFORTABLY LOW. 
THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND MOVES OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT 
INTO FRIDAY. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN 
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK FRIDAY.

THE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED FRIDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK 
THROUGH EASTERN CANADA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT FRONT ACROSS OUR 
REGION. MODELS SHOWING SOME RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES...BUT 
OVERALL TREND IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. 

IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOLER AND REFRESHING EARLY 
FALL AIR MASS IS POISED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THE 
LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS
SKIES BECOME AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AND AREAS OF RADIATION FOG
DEVELOP. WITH ABUNDANT RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
WINDS TRENDING TOWARDS CALM...MVFR/IFR STRATUS AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IS AT KGFL
AND KPSF...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
AT KALB AND KPOU AS WELL. ANY LINGER MVFR/IFR STRATUS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 15Z MONDAY WITH VFR FLYING CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY
CLEARING SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH
18Z MONDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MONDAY STILL LOOKS MAINLY RAIN
FREE...WARM BUT HUMID. NEVERTHELESS...A STRAY THUNDERSTORM CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RH VALUES WILL BE 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 55-65 PERCENT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
50 TO 60 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED.

DRIER WEATHER INCLUDING LOWER AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD TAKE HOLD 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.    


THE SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...TRENDING TO WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS LOOK TO GENERALLY BE AROUND HALF AN INCH
OR SO AT THIS POINT...MAIN STREAM RIVERS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES.

HOWEVER...WITH PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2 INCHES...ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EASILY EXCEEDING
AN INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRES AND NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ON LABOR DAY LOOK ISOLATED AND GENERALLY
NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HYDRO PROBLEMS.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO 
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES. 

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/NAS
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...SND/IRL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS









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