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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 221746
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
146 PM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND BRISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON 
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN 
CONTROL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR 
MIDWEEK WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...PLENTY OF CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA THIS AFTN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE
REGION. WITH STRONG W-NW FLOW...THE CLOUDS ARE DOWNSLOPING OFF THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS AND GREENS...ALLOWING
FOR PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...AS WELL AS THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY OF SE VT AND MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN CT.

WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY DRY.
CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT A LIGHT RAIN SHOWER OR SPRINKLE FOR THE
WESTERN ADK/WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY THIS AFTN WHERE SOME LAKE
MOISTURE MAY AID IN PRODUCING PRECIP...BUT RADAR RETURNS ARE
SHOWING MAINLY JUST CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE BRISK FROM THE W TO NW...WITH SOME GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH POSSIBLE...ESP IN AREAS WITHIN AND ADJACENT TO THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES.

WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING...TEMPS TODAY ARE
ALREADY CLOSE TO THEIR HIGHS...AND WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY THROUGH
THE AFTN BEFORE STARTING TO FALL BY LATE TODAY. TEMPS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF SOME WIND...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST PATCHY CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE FROST POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT...WITH MOST MIN TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.

TUESDAY...A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING SE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS DURING TUE AFTERNOON...ESP FOR AREAS N AND W OF
ALBANY. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO REACH
65-70 IN VALLEYS AND 50S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TUE NT-WED NT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODERATING. EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S BOTH NIGHTS...WITH DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS WED REACHING THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 IN VALLEYS...AND UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT...AND WITH VERY LIGHT
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO BURN OFF WED AM IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...WITH SOME LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
SOME AREAS UNTIL MID TO LATE MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE ARE 
SOME HINTS OF A COASTAL SYSTEM THURSDAY...WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF 
SOME CLOUDS PERHAPS APPROACHING THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW 
CT...BUT NOT MUCH. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING 
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH PERIOD.  

TEMPERATURES ALSO SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS THURSDAY 
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED 
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AROUND 70 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. 
TEMPERATURES WARMING ONE OR TWO MORE DEGREES SATURDAY AND AGAIN 
SUNDAY...WHEN HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 80...COOLER IN HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 18Z TUESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
COME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT KPSF. SKIES
WILL BECOME SKC THIS EVENING AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. AT THIS POINT DO NOT EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE
TAF SITES AS THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH GRADIENT TO KEEP THINGS
MIXED OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WINDS FROM
THE W-NW AT 10-16 KTS GUSTY TO 20-30 KTS AT TIMES...WINDS WILL
BECOME VARIABLE AROUND 3 KTS AFT 02Z AND THEN INCREASE 6-7 KTS
AND BE VARIABLE IN TERMS OF DIRECTION AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH TODAY...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS.

RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 45-55 PERCENT RANGE IN VALLEYS...AND
55-70 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...BEFORE RECOVERING TO 90-100 PERCENT WITH SOME DEW
FORMATION POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. RH VALUES SHOULD DROP TO 40-50
PERCENT IN VALLEYS...AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

W TO NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. W/NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO
5-15 MPH LATE TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-20 MPH TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVED ACROSS THE REGION LAST EVENING...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED...LIGHT RAINFALL AMTS OF GENERALLY UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN
INCH...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. THESE AMTS WILL HAVE
NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON AREA RIVERS/STREAMS.

A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







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