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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 181749
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1245 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD 
AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT WITH HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS WE 
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING 
HOWEVER THEY WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE 
HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 915 AM EST...RADAR COVERAGE INDICATED THAT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE 
DECREASED IN COVERAGE...AS THE UPPER AIR LOW FINALLY BEGINS PULLING 
AWAY. HOWEVER WE REMAIN IN CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH AT LEAST ONE MORE 
WEAK SHORT WAVE TO ROTATE THROUGH LATER TODAY.

NO CHANGES TO AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES JUST TWEAKING THE HOURLY 
GRIDS.  

WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND...BUT DECREASE POPS...STILL KEEP 
THEM IN MOST PLACES (OUTSIDE THE MID HUDSON VALLEY). ADDITIONAL 
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TODAY SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS. 
 

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NOVA SCOTIA HAS BECOME VERTICALLY 
STACKED AND WILL PROBABLY NOT DEEPEN ANY MORE. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN 
TO FILL BY THIS AFTERNOON AND START TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT. SNOW 
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. 

THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY 
TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AS YET ANOTHER SHORT 
WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE LOW. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT.

IT WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ADVANCING RIDGE. TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON UP THE HUDSON
VALLEY...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT AND INTO THE
BERKSHIRES...OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. THE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING TO THE WEST AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PICKS UP MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND AHEAD 
INTO WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND HEIGHTS BEGIN 
TO RISE ALOFT AS THE LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION. AS THE 
LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SATURDAY THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS 
WILL NO LONGER IMPACT THE AREA AND WE'LL ENJOY SOME SUNSHINE ACROSS 
THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING 
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS IF MOST AREAS 
WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH JUST A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT 
CHC OF LIGHT SNOW FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE 
UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE WITH 
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.

RIDGING WILL START TO ESTABLISH ITSELF JUST OFF THE EASTERN 
SEABOARD...AS BROAD SW FLOW STARTS TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THIS SHOULD 
KEEP MOST AREAS FAIRLY DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH 
CONTINUED SEASONABLE TEMPS...WITH CONTINUED FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES.  

WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED 
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF 
LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW...ESP FOR SOUTHERN AREAS...FOR SOMETIME MONDAY 
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UP AND OFF THE 
EASTERN SEABOARD.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR 
NORTH AND WEST PRECIP WILL GET...AND PRECIP APPEARS TO BE RATHER 
LIGHT AND BRIEF IN DURATION.

THE BIGGER WEATHER IMPACT WILL OCCUR TOWARDS MID WEEK...AS A LARGE 
AND DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION 
OF THE US AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TITLED. AT THIS POINT...THE 00Z 
GFS/ECMWF AND THE 00Z GEFS ALL AGREE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT 
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OFF TO OUR WEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SFC LOW 
WILL BE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ANOTHER SECONDARY LOW WILL DEVELOP 
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVE NORTHWARD.  
THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF 
THIS SURFACE LOW...BUT IT LOOKS TO BE EITHER OVER OR JUST WEST OF 
OUR AREA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS TO BE QUITE A STRONG 
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS 
TO OUR REGION. PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO BE RAIN ACROSS THE WHOLE 
AREA...AS VERY WARM TEMPS...BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC...WILL BE 
PULLED INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY /CHRISTMAS 
EVE/. HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REACH WELL INTO THE 40S OR LOW 
50S WITH RAIN LIKELY. BEHIND THE STORM/S COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT...TEMPS 
WILL BE COOLER FOR CHRISTMAS DAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LINGERING 
RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 
FRIDAY. 

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING AWAY VERY SLOWLY...BUT 
CLOUDS COULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.  

AT 1245 PM EST...WE WERE STILL DEALING WITH LOW MVFR CIGS AT KPSF 
AND MVFR CIGS AT KALB. WE EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR 
BY 00Z AT KALB AND HIGH MVFR AT KPSF...BUT CIGS LIKELY PERSISTING. 
AT KGFL...CIGS MIGHT ACTUALLY DIP BACK TO MVFR AFTER 02Z. AT 
KPOU...VFR CIGS LOOK TO BECOME SCATTERED BY 00Z DUE TO DOWNSLOPING 
WINDS OF THE CATSKILLS...AND WE EXPECT SCT CONDITIONS THROUGH 
FRIDAY. 

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...WE ANTICIPATE ALL THE TAFS SITES TO BE VFR...SCT 
AT KPOU...WITH CIGS ABOVE THE 3000 FOOT THRESHOLD AT THE OTHER TAF 
SITES.   

THE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20KTS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...AVERAGING 
AROUND 5-10KTS AT ALL THE TAF SITES FROM A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. 


OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED WILL BE LIGHT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...IAA









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