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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 292010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
410 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY START TO 
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AS A COOLER AIR MASS WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE 
REGION. SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE TOMORROW INTO 
FRIDAY...BEFORE EVEN COLDER AIR ARRIVES OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG 
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 410 PM EDT..A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS SITUATED JUST EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT HAS TAKEN ON
ANAFRONT CHARACTERISTICS...AS A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS STILL
REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION AND CATSKILLS ON EASTWARD. THE FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY SLIDE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
END BY EARLY EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES.
ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS IS PROGRESSING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEW
YORK...AND SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS. CLOUDS MAY HANG AROUND ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...WHERE A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PICKING UP SOME MOISTURE OFF LAKE ONTARIO. OTHERWISE...MOST AREAS
SHOULD BE DRY.

TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTS TO
BRING COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE AREA. MIN TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAINLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. 

A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 40S
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. WITH THE NW FLOW IN PLACE...SOME CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH MANY AREAS TURNING OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY. THERE
MAY BE A LINGERING EARLY MORNING SHOWER OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY DUE
TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EARLY IN THE DAY...OTHERWISE
IT LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
30S FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY...AS A SHARPLY DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.

THE BEST FORCING WILL GENERALLY BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ESP LATE. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SNOW
WILL BE ABOVE 2000 FEET. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
HIGH TERRAIN. PRECIP AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT...JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT MOST...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AT THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DUSTING OR LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM AND AN OCEAN STORM WILL BE IN FOCUS FOR THE 
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING 
FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA ON TUESDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE EVENTS 
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 
MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP 
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AS A 
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS WELL EAST OF DELMARVA. THE LACK OF PHASING OF 
THE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FA. ALTHOUGH 
SOME MINOR PCPN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE CLIPPER TYPE 
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH JUST 
CHANCE POPS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT WILL BE COLD 
ENOUGH FOR SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT...LACK OF QPF LIKELY TO PRODUCE ONLY 
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS 
ON SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO 
AROUND 50 SOUTHEAST. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BY 
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY 
NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE BLUSTERY DAY WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS 
ACROSS THE FA AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE 
COASTAL SYSTEM AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY 
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN 
THE 20S. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S 
NORTHWEST TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20S 
TO LOWER 30S.

ON TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN 
GREAT LAKES AND THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE PCPN MAY JUST BRUSH THE 
FAR NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO BE 
MILDER AS A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FA OUT AHEAD OF THE 
TROUGH. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S 
NORTHWEST TO MID 50S SOUTHEAST. 

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD 
AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON 
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE 
REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES. THESE SHOWERS 
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 22/23Z BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE 
REGION. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KPSF 
FROM 18-20Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY BRIEF REDUCTIONS WITH THE SHOWERS. 
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT BECOME WESTERLY BY THE LATE 
AFTERNOON AROUND 5-10 KNOTS.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION 
TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK 
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALOFT...CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TAF 
SITES AROUND 3-5 KFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT 
AT KPOU WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE 
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS 
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...ESP AT
NIGHT WHEN VALUES WILL BE NEAR 100 PERCENT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 

SOME RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE OVER FAR EASTERN AREAS...BUT SHOULD BE MOVING EASTWARD
AND OUT OF THE AREA SOON. SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. 

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALLOWS FOR SOME
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

ANY PRECIP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...AND
BASIN AVERAGE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ABOUT TWO TENTHS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IRL
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA







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