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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 221737
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE 
MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE NEW 
ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND 
INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR 
FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 136 PM EDT...CLOUDY...DAMP AND COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTN. BOTH IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS SFC LOW PRESSURE SITUATED OFF THE DELMARVA...WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS OCCURRING ACROSS OUR AREA WITHIN THE BROAD E-SE
FLOW AROUND THIS STACKED STORM SYSTEM. REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS
JUST ONE BATCH OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER OUR AREA ACROSS
WASHINGTON COUNTY...BUT PLENTY OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS UPSTREAM OVER
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA FROM EAST TO WEST...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH HIGH POPS FOR LATE TODAY. OUTSIDE OF THESE
SHOWERS...SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS
WELL...ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL AND HOLD FAIRLY STEADY...MAINLY IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL MAKE
IT FEEL EVEN COLDER AS WELL...ESP FOR THE HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 
AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GULF OR MAINE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF
PCPN MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD. POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST TO RISE TO
CATEGORICAL LEVELS EARLY TONIGHT...AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH MOST OF
THURSDAY.

THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW HEAVY AND HOW LONG PCPN 
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO HAVE 
TAKEN A CONSENSUS APPROACH AND LOWER POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...DROPPING 
TO CHANCE LEVELS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY...POPS ARE FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE TO DECREASE...REACHING ONLY 20 TO 30 PERCENT BY LATE IN THE 
DAY. 

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE REGION AND NOT VARY 
MUCH BETWEEN HIGHS AND LOWS. LOWS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE 
IN THE LOW OR MID 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 40S ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN 
AREAS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. FRIDAY IS 
THE TRICKIER DAY IN TERMS OF TEMP FORECASTS. FOR NOW HAVE FORECAST 
HIGHS IN THE 50S...BUT IF CLOUDS AND PCPN PERSIST AS SOME MODELS 
SUGGEST...THEN HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES COLDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH THE COASTAL LOW THAT WILL HAVE IMPACTED 
THE REGION MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK FINALLY PULLING AWAY INTO THE 
CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORT WAVE RIDGING INTO SATURDAY 
MORNING WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES 
CONTINUING TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT 
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RAPIDLY APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA. IT 
WILL BE MILD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH 
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST 
LOCATIONS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS SATURDAY 
NIGHT...WITH GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. MOST OF THE SHOWER 
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH A NORTHWEST 
FLOW REGIME FAVORING UPSLOPE ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND 
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL 
BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE DUE TO DECENT JET DYNAMICS DESPITE LACK OF 
MOISTURE. DEPENDING ON HOW MANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE OCCUR ON 
SUNDAY...TEMPS COULD END UP SLIGHTLY COOLER OR MUCH COOLER THAN 
SATURDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION REGIME ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER 
LOW. WILL STILL MENTION SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY WRAP-AROUND/UPSLOPE SHOWERS. VALLEY 
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF ALBANY SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS A 
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WITH THE HIGH 
CRESTING TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON...A WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED 
WITH WARMING ALOFT SHOULD PROMOTE DECENT MIXING FOR THIS TIME OF 
YEAR. TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND BY WARMING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE 
VALLEYS. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST OFF THE 
CAROLINA COAST...AN EVEN WARMER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL SET 
UP FOR TUESDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO POTENTIALLY REACH THE 
MID TO UPPER 60S WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SPRAWLING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED EAST OF THE 
DELMARVA WILL PROVIDE A MOIST NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE 
REGION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. 

AS WE GO THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VCSH 
TO AT TIMES -RA CONDITIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY BEGINS TO 
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE...ESPECIALLY 
AS WE GO PAST 00Z THURSDAY. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF 
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR KALB/KPOU/KGFL ALONG THE HUDSON 
VALLEY...NORTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE 
TO NEAR 10 KNOTS AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT. AS WE GO PAST 06Z 
THURSDAY...SOME OF THE SAME AREAS IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY COULD 
EXPERIENCE LOW CEILINGS AND MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL WITH IFR 
CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE 
PAST 12Z WITH LOW CEILINGS BEING THE MAIN IMPACT. NORTHERLY WINDS 
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE TOMORROW AFTER 12Z TO THE END OF THE 
TAF PERIOD FOR ALL TAF SITES

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES TO THE 
MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE NEW 
ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND 
INTERMITTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OR 
FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST RAIN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO 
THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE 
WEEK...EVEN THOUGH WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED AND WET AS AN UPPER 
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST THE REGION. OCCASIONAL RAINFALL IS 
EXPECTED FROM TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THE STEADIEST AND 
HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

WITH THE PERIODS OF RAINFALL...SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY BURSTS MAY 
OCCUR...ESP TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ONE TO 
TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA 
DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION...AND TRACK...WITH LOCALIZED 
AMOUNTS UP TO THREE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THIS RAINFALL WOULD OCCUR 
OVER THE PERIOD OF A FEW DAYS...SO NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS 
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF 
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...ESP SOUTHERN VT...AND POSSIBLY THE EASTERN 
CATSKILLS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM







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