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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 250250
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
950 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING USHERING IN
A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY...HOWEVER COLDER AIR BE USHERED IN TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA
THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 950 PM EST...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE
LOCAL AREA ACROSS CENTRAL NY. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...A NARROW
LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. THERE ARE A FEW POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WITHIN
THIS NARROW BAND AND SOME GUSTY WINDS OF 30-45 MPH ARE PROBABLY
OCCURRING WITHIN THESE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AS WELL. THE LINE IS
MOVING EASTWARD...ALTHOUGH INDIVIDUAL ELEMENTS WITHIN THE BAND ARE
TRAVELING NORTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THESE RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD...AND WILL IMPACT AREAS TO THE
NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND GREATER CAPITAL REGION. THE THREAT
FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD MAINLY BE OVER BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A LINGERING
SPRINKLE OR RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE ADIRONDACKS IN A FEW SPOTS.

A COOLER AIR MASS WILL BE USHERED IN WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD AIR IS STILL WELL BACK TO
THE WEST.  IT WILL STILL BE A MILD NIGHT FOR LATE NOVEMBER WITH
LOWS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD BE. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 40S WITH 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS.

LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS DIGS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE EAST COAST. SOME SHORT ENERGY WILL MOVE
THROUGH THIS QUICK FLOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
OPEN THE DOOR FOR COLDER AIR TO BE USHERED IN. WILL HAVE WEAK
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE. SHOWERS SHOULD CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ALL BUT HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES. 

SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY MORNING REACHING THE CAPITAL DISTRICT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BE THE HEAVIEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AN HOUR WITH
THE HEAVIEST SNOW. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION THIS EVENING (MONDAY EVENING). IT APPEARS THE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY WILL NOT PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WHICH
WILL KEEP THE STORM PROGRESSIVE. GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW OFF THE
COAST...THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR OFFSHORE. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
HAVE A TRACK JUST TO THE WEST OF GFS AND NAM...AND A BIT SOUTH IN
TIMING PASSING THE LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING.
HOWEVER THE ECMWF TRACK WITH IN THE SPREAD OF THE GFSENSEMBLES
MEMBERS. THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED A BIT EASTWARD. ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES MESOSCALE BANDING WILL OCCUR WITH THIS STORM ESPECIALLY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. 

OUR TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST MAP HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB AND CAN
BE FOUND AT ON OUR WINTER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING PAGE AT 
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALY/EMWINTER

AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE 10 TO 14 INCHES FORECAST FOR THE
TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...SOUTHERN VERMONT...LITCHFIELD COUNTY AND
A PORTION OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. AMOUNTS DECREASE AS YOU HEAD
NORTHWESTWARD WITH AROUND 8 INCHES ACROSS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
WITH LESS THAN 7 INCHES ACROSS HAMILTON AND HERKIMER COUNTIES
(THAT'S WHY THEY ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH).

ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED 
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. 

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ONLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION STILL BEING IMPACTING BY AN EARLY 
NOR'EASTER WHICH WILL BE DEPARTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE COME
THANKSGIVING MORNING. THERE WILL BE LEFTOVER SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...BUT BY AFTERNOON...ANY SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE LEE OF LAKE OF ONTARIO AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN VERMONT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE DRY WITH SOME PEEKS OF 
SUNSHINE...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ALONG WITH A GUSTY WIND WHICH 
COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE OUTLYING 
AREAS. 

IT TURNS COLD THURSDAY NIGHT WITH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 
20. THERE COULD BE STILL BE SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS 
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. DRY ELSEWHERE WITH A 
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY AND A DIMINISHING BREEZE.

FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH. 
IT WILL REMAIN COLD WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OTHER THAN A FEW 
FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS SCATTERED OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. HIGHS 
WILL ONLY BE RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. LOWS WILL 
GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THE HIGH MOVES TO OUR EAST...INDUCING A SOUTHERLY FLOW. 
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN A MODERATING TREND...AND WARM AIR 
ADVECTION COULD TRIGGER A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR ACROSS SOME 
SECTIONS.

THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN 
OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. A COLD 
FRONT LOOKS TO WORK TOWARD OUR REGION WITH PERHAPS A FEW 
SHOWERS...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE 
NORTH. 

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 
40S SOUTH...LOWS MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE FROM THE 
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AGO.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT KPSF
ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...OTHERWISE BKN LOWER CLOUDS
AT 3500-5000 FT SHOULD BREAK UP LATE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10
KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TONIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY FOR TUESDAY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. JUST SOME SCT DIURNAL CU
AND PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
WED-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY A
COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY 
     MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY 
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY 
     MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY 
     MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...IAA







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