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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 201456
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
956 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...WHILE 
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. THESE UPPER 
LEVEL IMPULSES WILL BRING AREAS OF CLOUDS THROUGH MONDAY...AND 
PERHAPS SOME FLURRIES FOR SOUTHEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED 
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH 
A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY 
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 10 AM EST...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN VT...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND THE UPPER HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE SARATOGA REGION AND NORTHERN
BERKSHIRES. MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS TRAPPED BENEATH A STRONG
INVERSION WITHIN THE H925-H850 LAYER REMAIN FOR AREAS TO THE S AND
W. WINDS WITHIN THIS LAYER ARE GRADUALLY VEERING MORE INTO THE
SE...WITH ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN CT. SO...EXPECT SKIES
TO REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...MOHAWK VALLEY AND MUCH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION. THE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTHWARD
A BIT AS WELL INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND SARATOGA REGION.
MEANWHILE...SUNSHINE SHOULD LAST AT LEAST INTO EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHERN VT AND THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...BEFORE SOME
CLOUDS REACH THESE REGIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY INTERMITTENTLY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NW CT AND THE MID HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH MIDDAY...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MOST VALLEY
AREAS...WITH MAINLY LOWER/MID 20S EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE OH VALLEY SHOULD
BRING ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS TO ALL AREAS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THERE IS VERY LITTLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FEATURE BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SOME PATCHY SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
ENERGY. INDICATING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THOSE AREAS BUT JUST
MOSTLY CLOUDY IN MOST OTHER AREAS TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S...MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MUCH AGREEMENT AMONG THE MDL SUITE (NAM/GFS/ECMWF) DURING THE
PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE PACKAGE IS SLOWER THAN 12UTC PACKAGE.
THE GEM WAS NOT AVBL.

SUNDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE
AT 500HPA GENERALLY A FAST SORTA ZONAL FLOW IS IN PLACE. HWVR THERE
ARE TWO SHORT WVS OVER THE NE USA...AND INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE MID AND LOWER CLOUDS. SUN NT THE
500 HPA TROF DEPARTS THE NE WITH SFC HIGH CENTERED FM QB TO ATLC
SEABOARD. WITH MODEST 500HPA RIDGING BUILDING OVER SEABOARD CLOUDS
SHOULD DCR WITH FAIR CONDS. 

MONDAY A SERIES OF 500HPA SHORT WVS CARVE A MAJOR FULL LATITUDE
TROF IN THE GRT PLAINS ALONG WITH SFC CYCLOGEN OVER MN/WI.
MEANWHILE FURTHER EAST 500HPA RIDGING ENSUES ALONG THE E
SEABOARD. THIS 500HPA TROF IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. MEANWHILE SFC HIGH ONLY SLOWLY RETREATS OFFSHORE. AS SUCH
WK SE FLOW SETS UP AND MANY AREAS MAY SE SOME SUN PART OF MONDAY.

BUT BY LATE MON AFTN WK ISENTROPIC LIFTS IS DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF
THE EAST WITH VEERING FLOW W/HT...CSTL FRONT IS SETTING UP ALONG THE
ATLC COAST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCR AND THICKEN. MON INTO TUES NT
500HPA PATTERN BECOMES GREATLY AMPLIFIED WITH SHARPENING RIDGE ALONG
E COAST...AND FULL LAT TROF IN MISS VLY CUTTING OFF. S-SE FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF THE EAST WITH MILDER AIR STREAMING N...HWVR
CSTL/WMFNT REMAINS S OF RGN...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTS TO INCR.

RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND INCRG CHC OF PCPN. THREAT OF
PCPN WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCR TO SLGT CHC MON NT AND CHC TUE. ANY
PCPN MON NT INTO TUE WILL BE SPOTTY AND LT...--SHSN..ZL...--SHRA. BY
MID MRNG TUES IT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY LIQ PCPN.

THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A SFC WV ALONG THE CSTL FRONT TUES SUG A
HIGHER PROB OF -SHRA MAINLY S PRTNS OF FCA MON NT AND TUE...BUT
AMNTS ARE STILL QUITE LT. TEMPS WILL BE NR NORMALS MON...INCRG TO
10 DEG ABV NORMALS TUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ALL GUID IS POINTING TO A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM IMPACTING THE EAST
CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY...MAKING FOR A VERY BUMPY AND WET RIDE FOR
SANTA.

BY WED MRNG FULL LAT 500HPA TROF IN MISS VLY...AND POWERFUL JET
ROUNDS ITS BASE...DRIVING IT EAST...AND NEGATIVELY TILTING IT. RAPID
CYCLOGEN ENSUES IN OHIO VALLEY...AS LOW DEEPENS AND RACES N INTO
GRTLKS AND CANADA. 500HPA TROF SWINGS EAST AND LLVL JET
INTENSIFIES DRAWING VERY MILD AIR MASS AND RICH ATLC AND GULF
MOISTURE NWRD. SHRA WILL INCR IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE
DAY WED...AS SYSTEMS CDFNT PUSHES E...TO BUF BY EVNG ALB BY 06UTC
AND OFFSHORE BY CHRISTMAS MRNG. CDFNT MAY BE ACCOMP BY HVY FRONTAL
RAIN BAND AND MAYBE ISOLD TSTM. TEMPS WILL INCR DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR 50. QPF IN ECMWF ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO
3.0 INCHES....AND GFS 0.5 TO 2.0 INCHES.

SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY CHRISTMAS DAY TWRD HUDSON'S
BAY...WITH STRONG CAA INTO FCA ON VERY STRONG NW-W WINDS. TEMPS
WILL PROBABLY FALL DURING THE DAY. LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
DVLP INTO W FCA...AND WITH CUT OFF LIFTING NE...NW FLOW -SHSN OVER
ADRNDKS A GOOD BET. 

CHRISTMAS NT THIS SYSTEM RACES N INTO N CANADA AND -SHSN END ACROSS
THE N PRTNS OF RGN. THU NT AND FRI 500HPA RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF
OVER THE EAST...AS WELL AS AT THE SFC. FRI INTO FRI NT SHOULD
REMAIN FAIR...HWVR ANOTHER STRONG TROF IS MVNG INTO THE GRTLKS FRI
NT...WITH MILDER CONDS AHEAD OF IT...AND POSSIBLE PCPN ARRIVING BY
FRI NT OR SAT.

WHILE THERE ARES SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BTWN THE GFS
AND ECMWF ON DAY 7 HPC TAKES THE MIDDLE ROAD ON DAY 7. UNTIL DAY
7 ECMWF/GFS IN PRETTY MUCH IN AGREEMENT. WILL POPULATE WITH HPC
FROM MID SHIFT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE IN FROM SE ONTARIO THROUGH
THE DAY.A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE CLOUDS ARE EXPANDING AGAIN FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TOWARD
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY. BASED ON TRENDS IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY...KGFL SHOULD SEE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...WITH OCCASIONAL
PERIODS OF A BROKEN CEILING BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET THIS MORNING.
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUDINESS CUTS RIGHT THROUGH THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT AND BERKSHIRES...SO KALB SHOULD HAVE PERIODS OF
BROKEN AND SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET...WHILE KPSF
AND KPOU SHOULD HAVE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS BETWEEN 2000-3000
FEET. BY AFTERNOON...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER SYSTEM
SHOULD ADD A HIGHER LAYER TO THE VARYING COVERAGE OF THE LOWER
CLOUDS. THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...
AND HOW MUCH OF THE LOWER CLOUDINESS REDEVELOPING IS IN QUESTION...
SO INCLUDING A SCATTERED LAYER BETWEEN 2000-3000 FEET IN CASE THE
LOW CLOUDS DOMINATE AGAIN.

NW TO NE WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT VERY LIGHT N TO N WINDS OF LESS
THAN 5 KTS TOWARD MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN...BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...SHSN...SLEET...DZ.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA. 
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA. 
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY DEFINITE RA. 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY/CHRISTMAS AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE LIKELY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER







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