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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 210543
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
142 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. COOLER AIR
WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...THE TIME HAS COME TO RAISE OVERNIGHT 
LOWS...MAINLY SINCE THE WIND HAS KEPT UP WHICH IN MANY CASES...HAS 
PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS MUCH AS ANTICIPATED. SINCE IT 
IS LATE IN THE GAME...DECIDED TO JUST RAISE EVERYONE/S OVERNIGHT LOW 
3 DEGREES (ONE CATEGORY) BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF PLACES LIKE 
ALBANY ENDED UP EVEN HIGHER THAN THAT. 

EITHER WAY...IT WILL BE DRY OVERNIGHT...WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY 
BREEZE (LIKELY TO DECOUPLE IN SOME PLACES BUT NOT WITH ENOUGH TIME 
TO DROP AS MUCH AS EARLIER THOUGHT). OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY 
BE IN THE 30S...MAINLY ABOVE FREEZING (EXCEPT SOME COLDER SPOTS UP 
NORTH). LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL REGION...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN 
THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. 
    
THE SKY WILL BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH MAINLY CIRRUS CLOUDS. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARM WITH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SOUTHERLY 
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND 
COAST. LOOKING AT AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL 
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY 
WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ITS 
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD CROSSING THE LOCAL 
AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH 
THE MOVEMENT AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE 
AREA TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND CONTINUE INTO THE 
EVENING HOURS. THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT WITH THE 
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS 
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

COOLER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL 
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED DEEPENING THE SURFACE OFF THE NORTHERN NEW 
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...RIDGING WILL EXTENDED SOUTHWARD
OUT OF CANADA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SET UP A 
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION RESULTING IN BRISK AND 
GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN 
THERE WILL BE BETTER MIXING. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 
DEGREES BELOW AND THE WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL CHILLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WHAT STARTS AS A RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES RATHER 
HIGH AMPLITUDE AND BLOCKY AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE 
CONTROLS OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY 
WEATHER. HIGHS THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 
AS COLD ADVECTION GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND AS AXIS OF LOW LEVEL RIDGING 
CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE REGION. HIGHS AROUND 50 IN THE SOUTHERN 
ADIRONDACKS.

THE AXIS OF RIDGING SHIFTS EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS A NORTHERN STREAM 
UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WARM ADVECTION AHEAD 
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S 
FRIDAY...WITH SOME LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THE MAIN 
UPPER DYNAMICS TRACK NORTH OF OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED.  ONCE THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH... 
THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER DYNAMICS AND AN UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL 
SHIFT OVER OUR REGION...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW 
DRIVING COOLER WEATHER INTO OUR REGION.  

THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED INSTABILITY 
SHOWERS SHOULD EXTEND THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY 
NIGHT. HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT MID TO UPPER 50S 
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS INTO THE 
EASTERN CATSKILLS. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM EXITS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY 
NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE 
CENTRAL U.S. AND CANADA...BUT SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER IS POSSIBLE 
DUE TO THE LINGERING UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S....COOLER 
WEATHER AND FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES.  SOME SCATTERED TO ISOLATED 
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS 
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY... 
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH LINGERING UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS OVER OUR 
REGION.  HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOWER 60S...MID TO UPPER 50S IN HIGHER 
TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z TUESDAY.

A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND OVERNIGHT WITH FEW-SCT HIGH AND MID LEVEL 
CLOUDS...MAINLY NORTH OF THE THRUWAY.

DURING THE DAY MONDAY...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY 
INCREASE AND THICKEN DURING THE DAY...WITH BKN CIGS OF 12-15 KFT IN 
PLACE BY THE AFTN HOURS FOR KALB/KGFL. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 
AROUND 5-10 KTS...WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS DURING THE BEST MIXING IN 
THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. 
TUE: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. OCNL SHRA.
TUE NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX. 
THU-THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. 
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE LOW AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUMS
IN THE 20S...

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO 60 TO 80
PERCENT TONIGHT. MINIMUMS VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A RECOVERY TO 75 TO 95 PERCENT MONDAY
NIGHT. 

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO
OUR EAST.

SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING...THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AND
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SCHROON RIVER AT RIVERBANK CONTINUES.
THE FORECAST HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
FLOOD STAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 2 PM.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING...THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY QPF
AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR A HALF OF AN INCH ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN VERMONT.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...FRUGIS/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA


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