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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 281042
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
642 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL 
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW 
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE 
THE WEEK.  THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO 
SATURDAY WITH A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR TO OPEN THE 
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 642 AM EDT...PLEASANT AND DRY LATE AUGUST WX CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTING
DOWNSTREAM OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
IN FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN ONTARIO. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WITH THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDING WILL PROMOTE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THE CLOUD
OVER THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...ERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...SRN
GREENS...BERKSHIRES...AND LITCHFIELD HILL SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS MORNING.

H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM +7C TO +11C FROM NW TO SE OVER ERN NY
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH COLD ADVECTION ONGOING THIS MORNING. DEEP
MIXING AND THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING SFC
ANTICYCLONE AND THE DEPARTING CRISTOBAL OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC WILL
KEEP IT BREEZY TODAY WITH NW WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS
AROUND 25 MPH OVER THE ERN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...MOHAWK
VALLEY...AND BERKSHIRES.

HIGH TEMPS WERE FAVORED CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFSMOS VALUES WITH
MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILL TOWNS
AND MTNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE VERY COMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH THE SFC
HIGH BUILDING IN OVER NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THE SKIES WILL CLEAR
AND IDEAL RADITIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP. PATCHY FOG IS
LIKELY IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. LOWS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE
WITH 40S TO L50S. SOME U30S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADIRONDACKS OF
HAMILTON COUNTY.

FRIDAY...MORE GREAT LATE AUGUST WEATHER WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS. SFC DEWPTS WILL BE IN THE
U40S TO L50S. THE SFC HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER ERN NY AND NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIMIT DEEP MIXING. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THU...BUT WITH LESS WIND. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE U60S TO M70S OVER THE REGION WITH A FEW U70S IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT.

FRI NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARDS
THE GULF OF MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA. INITIALLY TEMPS WILL DROP OFF
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS...BUT SOME CIRRUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL START TO LIFT NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE UPPER
MID ATLANTIC REGION. LOWS WILL NOT BE NOT AS COOL AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD 50S.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...MORE CLOUDS THEN SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. A WARM
ADVECTION REGIME SETS UP WITH AN INCREASING S/SW FLOW IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVELS MAY CAUSE ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SRN DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...AND ERN CATSKILLS DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANY ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE TIED
TO THE DIURNAL HEATING. IT WILL START TO BECOME MORE HUMID...BUT
BASED ON THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/GEFS...AND EVEN NAM TRENDS MOST OF
THIS DAY APPEARS TO BE DRY WITH THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING WELL
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S ARE EXPECTED
ON THE FIRST THIRD OF THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY.

DURING THE EVENING...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE SW
H500 FLOW...AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY MAY FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS...AND
PERHAPS SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...SRN
VT...ERN CATSKILLS NORTH AND WEST. IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE NORM DURING MUCH OF THE LONG TERM 
PERIOD FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FA LOOKS TO BE IMPACTED BY 
SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AT LEAST 
SCATTERED CONVECTION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER BY 
WEDNESDAY.

ON SUNDAY EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ALONG A COLD FRONT 
DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN 
CANADA. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACRS SRN CANADA INTO 
MONDAY WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR 
REGION. LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE 
APPROACHING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA 
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR 
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN FINALLY BUILD EAST FROM THE OHIO 
VALLEY RESULTING IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY. PWATS WILL 
GENERALLY BE BTWN 1.5 AND 2.0 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE TIME SUNDAY 
THROUGH TUESDAY...SO NOT ONLY WILL IT BE HUMID...BUT THERE IS THE 
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL WITH PRECIPITATION 
EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HIGHS 
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S SUNDAY AND 
MONDAY AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY WILL 
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL MAINLY 
BE IN THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT AND IN THE MID 50S TO 
MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD ENDING AT 12Z FRIDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KGFL WHERE 
LIFR FOG IS EXPECTED FOR A TIME LATER TONIGHT AFT 08Z AND AT KPSF 
WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFT 08Z TONIGHT. 

DURING THE DAY TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT WITH 
GENERALLY P6SM SCT040-060 CONDS. W-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING DAYTIME 
TO AROUND 10 KTS THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH SKC CONDITIONS AFT 
00Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. SUNDAY
NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. LABOR
DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA. MONDAY
NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA. TUESDAY:
MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE CENTRAL 
GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY.  IT WILL MOVE OVER NEW 
YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO CLOSE 
THE WEEK WITH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. 

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
VERY HEAVY DEW FORMATION. THE RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 30 TO 50
PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH TODAY
WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT TO CALM THURSDAY NIGHT...AND BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS
THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING LABOR DAY.  

ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TODAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND THEN 
MOVES OFFSHORE TO START THE WEEKEND.  THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RECEDE INTO SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN A
MUCH MORE HUMID AIR MASS. THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BY LABOR DAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...JPV/WASULA







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