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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KALY 312338
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
738 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. IT LOOKS 
TO BE RAIN FREE MOST OF THE TIME...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM 
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES 
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 738 PM EDT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN
CANADA IS CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION.
MEANWHILE...HEIGHTS ARE RISING OVER THE AREA...AS STRONG RIDGING
STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION AT 500 HPA FROM THE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.

VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MOST CLOUDS HAVE
CLEARED OUT OF THE REGION. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME PATCHES OF
STRATOCU OVER THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...BUT EVEN THESE LOOK TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. AS A
RESULT...IT WILL BE CLEAR AND CALM ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. WITH
DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...THIS WILL
BE A GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL FOG...ESP IN RIVER VALLEYS AND
OTHER PRONE LOCATIONS. THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK...ESP AROUND GLENS FALLS...PITTSFIELD...AND IN THE CT
RIVER VALLEY OF SRN VT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST
SPOTS...ALTHOUGH SOME UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE INDICATES A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL TRY AND APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL
PREVENT ITS PROGRESS AND CAUSE IT TO MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT. IT
WILL BE VERY WARM/HOT WITH HIGHS IN 80S THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOME ACROSS OUR REGION AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH NEAR HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND A
BACKDOOR FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL AMPLIFY TO OUR WEST. WEDNESDAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S IN MID HUDSON VALLEY. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
HUMID CONDITIONS.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL MAKE FOR
A MILDER/MUGGY NIGHT. THE THREAT FOR STORMS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST OPENS WITH A COLD FRONT OR BACK DOOR COLD 
FRONT MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS FRONT WILL 
GIVE THE FCST AREA ITS BEST CHC OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS 
THU INTO THU NIGHT.  THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE AMOUNTS OF 
INSTABILITY ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM 
THREAT.  A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD 
LATE THU INTO FRIDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE QUEBEC 
AND NRN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS/ECMWF/WPC/SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE HAS 
TRENDED TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE WE CLOSE THE WORK WEEK...BUT 
STILL TEMPS LOOK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPT.

HIGHS ON THU WILL BE IN THE MID AND U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S 
TO L70S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  H850 TEMPS FALL TO +12C TO +14C BY 
12Z/FRI WITH THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  LOWS WILL 
BE IN THE U50S TO L60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN..AND LOWER TO M60S IN 
THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.  THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS CONTINUE ON FRI 
WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE M50S TO L60S...AS HIGHS WILL BE 80-85F RANGE 
IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE MTNS,.
 
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPS/HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AS THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE SFC HIGH 
INITIALLY IS OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY...THEN DRIFTS OVER THE 
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON SUNDAY...AND THEN EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST. 
 
THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL YIELD PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY 
CONDITIONS AND DRY WX. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE 
IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

H850 TEMPS START AROUND +13C TO +15C ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS 
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY WITH U70S TO M80S OVER THE FCST AREA.  
SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH THE SFC HIGH SAT NIGHT WILL STILL 
YIELD LOWS IN THE M50S TO L60S OVER THE FCST AREA. SUNDAY INTO 
MONDAY...HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE 
VALLEYS...AND U70S TO M80S OVER THE HILLS/MTNS...AS H850 TEMPS TREND 
1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GEFS.

OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY 
WITH PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR ALL TAF SITES. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS IN PLACE...RADIATIONAL FOG WILL
DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT. KGFL/KPSF LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET TO SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 04Z-06Z. VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVEN REACH LIFR
LEVELS TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS WELL. MEANWHILE...KPOU/KALB MAY NOT
DEVELOP ANY FOG UNTIL LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS SUNRISE...AND WILL ONLY
FORECAST VSBY DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS AT THOSE SITES.

ANY BR/FG WILL DISSIPATE BY 12Z-13Z...ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ON TUESDAY. FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN...OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN CLEAR. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX. PATCHY FG.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT-SAT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. 
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS 
THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. 

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH TUESDAY AND 
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVERY TO 90
TO 100 AT NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 
EXPECTING DRY AND HOT WEATHER AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
STORMS THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED 
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE 
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LONGEST HEAT IN ALBANY HAS BEEN 10 DAYS LONG AND IT OCCURRED 
AUGUST 27 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 5 IN 1953. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR AUGUST 29, 30 AND 31 AND SEPTEMBER 1, 2 AND 3 WERE ALL SET
DURING THIS HEAT AND STAND TODAY. DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS ALBANY
DATE BACK TO 1874.

HERE ARE SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEK...

AUGUST 31... 
ALBANY: 93 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 100 DEGREES 1953 
  
SEPTEMBER 1... 
ALBANY: 96 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 91 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953 

SEPTEMBER 2... 
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 97 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 101 DEGREES 1953 

SEPTEMBER 3... 
ALBANY: 100 DEGREES 1953
GLENS FALLS: 95 DEGREES 1953
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 DEGREES 1953 

SEPTEMBER 4... 
ALBANY: 97 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 92 DEGREES 1973
POUGHKEEPSIE: 96 DEGREES 1973 

RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949 FOR GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE...HOWEVER 
NOTE THAT DATA IS MISSING FROM JANUARY 1993 THROUGH JULY 2000 FOR
POUGHKEEPSIE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA



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