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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 012356
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
756 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS...MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN RAIN-FREE BUT HUMID. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRY WARM WEATHER WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
645 PM UPDATE...
REMOVED ANY REMAINING MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THIS EVENING...AND
LOWERED POPS INTO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR LOWER...TIMED
AS BEST I COULD WITH PASSAGE OF WEAK WAVES OVERNIGHT. ALSO QUICKLY
LOWERED SKY GRIDS WITH RAPID DISSIPATION OF CUMULUS ONGOING.
THOUGH WE WILL HAVE INCREASING FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...SHALLOW PATCHY FOG STILL LOOKS LIKELY IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT WITH AMOUNT OF NEAR-SURFACE HUMIDITY...AND
STILL SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST AT
LOW- LEVELS AND WE ARE SEEING SOME MODERATE DESTABILIZATION WITH
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES AREA. LATEST SPC ANALYSIS INDICATES
MLCAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG THROUGH 3 PM. MID-LEVELS
REMAIN QUITE DRY AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
ARE HAVING A HARD TIME HOLDING TOGETHER PARTLY DUE TO DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM CENTRAL
PA NORTHWARD TO WESTERN NY WILL TEND TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH 20 OR 25 PCT COVERAGE... FOLLOWED BY SOME
CLEARING OVERNIGHT. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER
MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST AND TEND TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT BUT COULD
STILL PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE
PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE MAINLY
IN THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN NY AND NORTHERN PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SEVERE POTENTIAL LATE TUESDAY. THE AMOUNT OF HEATING THAT
WE WILL SEE AHEAD OF THESE STORMS IS IN QUESTION TUESDAY AS THE
DAY WILL START WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. IN
ADDITION THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS SPREADING EASTWARD OVER OUR
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING CONVECTION OVER THE MIDWEST.
DESPITE THESE FACTORS THE VERY WARM MOIST LOW-LEVELS WILL COMBINE
WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH
TO PRODUCE MLCAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 1000-1500 J/KG... WITH 2000
J/KG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IF SEVERAL HOURS OF SOLAR HEATING CAN
OCCUR. WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR WILL CERTAINLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS EXPECTED...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH. THE LATEST 4 KM NAM INDICATES THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF STORMS BY AROUND 21Z OVER CENTRAL NY
PROGRESSING EASTWARD. BASED ON THESE FACTORS THE SPC HAS PUT OUR
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CIRCUMSTANCES.
WILL ADD A SEVERE MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

EVERYTHING QUIETS DOWN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
WILL PROBABLY START WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUD AND FOG FOLLOWED BY
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS AND HUMIDITY
WILL BE NOTICEABLY LOWER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WARM DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH WILL FEATURE A WEEKEND
FROPA. MAX TEMPS AHEAD OF THE CDFNT ON FRI WILL GET WELL INTO THE
8OS...WITH HIGHS GNRLY IN THE 65-70 RNG BY SUN/MON. BAND OF
SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE FNT ON SAT...WITH COOLER TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER XPCTD FOR SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. AFTER
06Z A STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITH
HAZE. EXPECT FOR THE MOST PART TO HAVE MVFR VISBYS AND CIGS. KELM
AND KBGM MAY DEVELOP FOG TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY MORE CONFIDENT THAT KELM
WILL HAVE PROLONGED PERIODS OF IFR THAN KBGM. EXPECT THE MVFR DECK TO
LIFT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN... A STRONG SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. EXPECT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNDER 12 KNOTS PRIOR TO THE STORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA EARLY...THEN POTNL FOR
MVFR/IFR CIGS LATE DUE TO LOW POST-FNTL CLDS MAINLY SRN TIER OF NY.

WED-FRI...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/MSE
NEAR TERM...MDP/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KAH








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