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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 260536
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1236 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WILL IMPACT ALL OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND A LARGE PART
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
IS EXPECTED FROM THE POCONOS TO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS. SNOW WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND TAPER OFF TO
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. SNOWFALL OF 5 TO
12 INCHES IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TO THE CATSKILLS
WITH 2 TO 6 INCHES TO THE NORTH AND WEST. LESS THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES REGION TO THE
SYRACUSE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
8 PM UPDATE...
L/WV TROF IS MVG THRU MS VLY AT THIS TIME WITH STRONG S/WV
ROUNDING BASE OF TROF OVR LWR MS RVR. CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY ACRS
NE GOM WITH PCPN NOW BEING REPORTED AS FAR NORTH AS THE PIEDMONT
OF NC. LATEST MODELS HV TRENDED JUST A TAD SLOWER WITH PCPN
EXPECTED TO MV INTO CWA CLOSER TO 12Z. RUC AND HIRES ARW SEEM TO
HV BEST HANDLE ON PCPN AS OF 00Z AND NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ECHOES MVG INTO POCONOS UNTIL 11Z AT THE EARLIEST. 

AS PCPN HEADS NORTH EXPECTING TO SEE JUST A WALL OF SNOW HEADING
AT US. THUS HV GONE FM LOCHC POPS TO CATEGORICAL DRG THE MRNG HRS.
18Z NAM HAS TRENDED A TAD WETTER AND FURTHER WEST WITH PCPN WITH
24-HR AMNTS OVR 1+ INCHES OVR FAR SE ZONES AND 0.75 INCHES AS FAR
WEST AS AN ELMIRA-UTICA LINE. WL EVALUATE 00Z GUIDANCE COMING IN
AND POSSIBLY EXPAND WARNINGS/ADVISORIES FURTHER WEST OVRNGT. 

FOR NOW, HV LWRD SNOW AMNTS BTWN 06Z AND 12Z OVR NEPA AND ADJUSTED
AMNTS HIGHER FOR THE 12Z-18Z TIMEFRAME AS THIS LOOKS TO BE
PRIMETIME. CONCERN IS THAT MESOSCALE BANDING WL SET UP JUST A HAIR
FURTHER WEST LATE MRNG OR EARLY AFTN THAN MODELS ARE INDICATING.
TREMENDOUS VERTICAL MOTION EXPECTED LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTN HRS IN
AREA OF ENHANCE UPWARD DIFFLUENCE AS CWA WL LKLY BE IN RRQ OF H2
JET. NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

ISSUED WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
AND THE WESTERN CATSKILLS IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WWD AND MODEL QPFS. MODELS ALL
INDICATE THAT CYCLOGENESIS BEGINS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE
STORM WILL NOT CLOSE OFF AT 700 MB UNTIL IT IS NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION AS THE SYSTEM GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE STRG SWRLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS LINGERING WRAP ARND ACCUMULATIONS THAT WE
OFTEN SEE IN C NY/NRN PA. BASICALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL RUN INTO UPPER
CONFLUENCE OVER THE MARITIMES BY THURSDAY AND SHEAR OUT. BUT IN THE
PROCESS SIGNIFICANT WARM CONVEYOR BELT MOISTURE IS RUNNING INTO
THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET
OVER SERN CANADA. THIS IS FAVORABLE FOR A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW.
MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN OUR FORECAST AREA IS
FROM NE PA TO DELAWARE/SULLIVAN CO/S IN NY. 

CROSS SECTIONS NORMAL TO THE THICKNESS ACROSS NE AND C NY SHOW A
CLASSIC SLOPED LAYER OF FGEN FORCING WED PM WITH LOW STATIC
STABILITY ABOVE OR EVEN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ALOFT. THIS IS A RECIPE
FOR MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS AND BELIEVE A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL
FORM SOMEWHERE IN OUR WARNING AREA. IN GRIDS HAVE MENTION OF
HEAVY SNOW IN THIS AREA. I ALSO AM CONCERNED THAT THIS BAND COULD
TRACK FARTHER WEST AS IS OFTEN THE CASE AND IMPACT OUR ADVY AREA. THE
12Z EURO NOW HAS MORE QPF FARTHER WEST TOO. FOR NOW HAVE A ROW OF
WINTER WX ADVY/S AS A BUFFER ZONE FROM TOWANDA TO BINGHAMTON TO
COOPERSTOWN AND NORWICH. THIS AREA COULD GET INTO SOME HEAVY SNOW.
IT DEPENDS ON WHERE THIS MESOSCALE BAND SETS UP. LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR. OUR BRIEFINGS WILL MENTION THE CHANCE THAT SOME
HEAVIER SNOW COULD FALL FARTHER WEST. 

FOR THE REST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL RAPIDLY TAPER DOWN TO
SNOW SHOWERS FROM SW TO NE AS THE STORM PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
CAA WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE CWA THURS AS THE SFC
LOW MOVES FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW COOLER
AIR TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF NY AND PA. THIS WILL RESULT IN THURS
BEING FAIRLY COLD WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY RISING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. EVEN THOUGH THE POTENT STORM THAT HAVE CAUSED WARNINGS
ACROSS THE EAST WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH BY THURS... THIS DOES
NOT MEAN AN END TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CWA. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL STILL CONTINUE. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THESE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE THE RESULT FROM AN ALBERTA CLIPPER PASSING THROUGH.

THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TO BE LIGHT AND SCATTERED IN NATURE.
SOME LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF
THE CLIPPER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SHORTLY
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER ON FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS A VERY COLD AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN OVER NY AND PA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
300 PM EST UPDATE...
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSELY
FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. 

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ZONAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BUT SADLY THIS DOES NOT MEAN THE WX
PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THERE APPEARS TO
BE A CHANCE FOR EITHER SNOW OR RAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED. 

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL FORCE A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY SAT THEN SLOWLY BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CWA ON
SUNDAY. GUIDANCE IS UPON FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE SFC
LOW WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. GUIDANCE HINTS AT HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING STARTING TO BUILD OVER REGION ON MONDAY. THIS MAY
BRIEFLY HALT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE WINTER STORM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD IFR VSBYS AT ALL
TERMINALS WEDNESDAY. 

TIMING OF SNOW LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z SOUTHERN TERMINALS,
AND AFTER 15Z UP NORTH. AIRPORT MINS WILL BE APPROACHED AT
KBGM/KAVP A FEW HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF THE SNOW, THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. FARTHER NORTH AND WEST FROM KELM TO KITH, KSYR,
AND KRME IFR VSBYS LIKELY BUT NOT AS LOW AS FARTHER SOUTH.

VSBYS WILL TEND TO RISE AFTER 00Z AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT OUT
OF THE AREA. XPCT CIGS AND VSBY GNRLY IN THE MVFR RANGE THRU THE
END OF THEPD...AS WINDS BECOME MORE NWLY BHD THE STORM. 

OUTLOOK...

WED NGT...COASTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT REGION WITH RESTRICTIONS FROM
SNOW...BEST CHANCE KAVP.

THU/FRI/SAT...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
KSYR-KRME.

SUN...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ039-040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ038.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ057-062.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NYZ045-046-
     055-056.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN/PVF
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DGM/HEDEN






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