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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 251519
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1119 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS NY AND PA TODAY, BRINGING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND PLEASANT SUMMER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION. A WARM
FRONT WILL SWING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. THE RESULT WILL BE SHOWERY WEATHER
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 11 AM... NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. 12Z BUF
SOUNDING IS DRY AND STABLE AS EXPECTED. SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR
EXCEPT FOR A THIN LAYER OF SMOKE EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS NY AND NORTHERN PA. TEMPERATURES ON TRACK TO REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 70S IN MOST PLACES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW. 

RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH SUNRISE, THEN BURN OFF BETWEEN 13Z AND 14Z. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS THIS RUN. WARM FRONT WILL SWING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOWARD WESTERN NY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
USHERING SHOWERS INTO THE REGION (ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-81) BY LATE
AFTERNOON. 

UL TROF WILL SWING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH LIKELY POPS
FORECAST FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE FA. CAPES/LI'S ARE MARGINAL,
BUT K-INDICES ARE FAIRLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED THUNDER MENTION. 

WEAK RIDGING MAY REDUCE SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR A TIME ON SUNDAY,
BEFORE THE TROF RELOADS AND SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION WITH GREATER
CONVICTION SUNDAY NIGHT. 570 HEIGHTS AT 500MB BY 12Z MONDAY INDICATIVE
OF MUCH COOLER AIR HEADED OUR WAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
140 PM UPDATE...
MED RANGE MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE ACTIVE WET PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 595DM RIDGE
CNTRD OVR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION ON SUN NGT WL KEEP TROFFINESS
ACRS THE ERN U.S. THRU THE LONG TERM. SFC LOW PRESSURE ROTATES
THRU THE CWA MON AFTN WITH LKLY POPS EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG S/WV
IN BASE OF TROF COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HTG. FROPA OCCURS MON NGT
WITH HIPRES AND DRIER WX MVG IN ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WL BE NICE WITH JUST DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z FRI UPDATE... AS VLY FOG GRADUALLY BURNS OFF THIS MRNG...WE
MAY SEE SOME RESIDUAL RESTRICTIONS AT KELM THROUGH 13-14Z. 
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH THIS EVE...WITH A
FEW-SCT CU FIELD LTR TDY...THEN BKN HIGH CLDNS COMING IN AFTER
00Z SAT.

EVEN THOUGH RADIATING CONDS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE QUITE AS GOOD
FRI NGT AS THEY WERE LAST NGT...OUR IN-HOUSE CHECKLIST IS SHOWING
SOME FOG POTENTIAL AT KELM GIVEN SIMILAR PAST ANALOGS. FOR
NOW...WE'LL INDICATE IFR VSBY'S AFTER 08-09Z SAT.  

NW SFC WINDS 5-10 KT THIS AFTN...WILL BECOME VRB AOB 5 KT THIS
EVE.

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NGT-MON NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA.

TUE...BECOMING VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MSE
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...PVN
AVIATION...MLJ/TAC






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