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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 041203
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
703 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PATCHY DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL COME TO AN END THIS
MORNING...BUT SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY THANKS TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST PA TO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS OF NY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
7 AM EST UPDATE...
ALLOWED REMAINDER OF ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED...WITH
PRECIPITATION BECOMING LIGHT AND SPOTTY. THAT BEING
SAID...TEMPERATURES IN MOST PLACES REMAIN AROUND FREEZING...AND
THE EARLIER SNOW-SLEET-ICE WILL STILL BE AN ISSUE ON UNTREATED
ROADS IN ADDITION TO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE-FREEZING RAIN /MAINLY
AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS/. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THESE CONCERNS ALONG WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 
THOUGH THE MAIN WINTRY MIX MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WE STILL HAVE HAD ADDITIONAL WEAK WAVES OF
MOISTURE RIDING THROUGH THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW. IN THIS
EVENT...FOR MOST OF THE AREA IT APPEARS THAT THE COLD THICK LAYER
OF SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET WON VERSUS THE WARM WEDGE OF ABOVE
FREEZING AIR ALOFT...IN THAT AFTER THE INITIAL BURST OF
SNOW...SLEET DOMINATED OVER FREEZING RAIN /IT WAS ABLE TO REFREEZE
INTO PELLETS ON THE WAY DOWN/. WITH THE NEAR-SURFACE COLD AIR
BECOMING SHALLOWER OVERNIGHT...FREEZING RAIN BECAME THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE...BUT THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SPOTTY AND
LIGHT /OFTEN FREEZING DRIZZLE INSTEAD OF RAIN/. MEANWHILE
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW RISEN TO NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE
FREEZING...INCLUDING 38 IN PENN YAN AND 36 IN HAZLETON.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS DROPPED EARLIER FOR FINGER LAKES TO
SOME OF CENTRAL NY WHERE TEMPERATURES WARMED AND PRECIPITATION
BECAME VERY SPOTTY. HOWEVER...A FINAL WAVE OF MOISTURE IS SKIMMING
FROM CENTRAL PA THROUGH NORTHEAST PA...TO EASTERN SOUTHERN TIER-
WESTERN CATSKILLS OF NY. WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
FREEZING...A TRACE TO VERY LIGHT COATING OF ICE CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY THIS MORNING. THUS FOR THE AFFECTED ZONES...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 A.M. AFTER
THEN...ANY LINGERING FREEZING RAIN WILL BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT...AND
ONLY AT HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM
/ALBEIT TEMPORARY/. ALSO WITH THE MARCH SUN ANGLE AND THE
PRECIPITATION BEING VERY LIGHT...ANY REMAINING PATCHY FREEZING
RAIN-DRIZZLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATER THIS MORNING WILL HAVE
DIFFICULTY ACTUALLY ACCRETING ON SURFACES.

COLD FRONT WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING...WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION COMPETING WITH DIURNAL HEATING THROUGH THE DAY...THE END
RESULT BEING TEMPERATURES NOT MOVING MUCH FROM MID MORNING
READINGS. WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL HEAD OUT BY MID MORNING...BUT AS
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...A FEW SHOWERS WILL STILL POP UP ACROSS THE
AREA. THE SATURATED LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW SO AMOUNTS OF
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW TODAY...WILL BE VERY NOMINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
5 AM UPDATE...
NO REST OF THE WEARY...MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP
FOR AT LEAST SOME OF OUR AREA TONIGHT.

THE FRONT THAT DRAGS ITS WAY THROUGH OUR AREA TODAY...WILL STALL
OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS
THROUGH THE MIDATLANTIC STATES...AT THE SAME TIME A SECONDARY
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES. MODELS HAVE CONSOLIDATED FAIRLY WELL 
ON A CHUNK OF NORTHEAST PA TO WESTERN CATSKILLS NY RECEIVING
ANOTHER COATING OF SNOW...YET THE HEAVIEST OF IT WILL FALL IN
SOUTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL PA...INTO NEW JERSEY AND DOWNSTATE NY.
ANY SLIGHT JOG NORTHWARD TO THIS TRACK COULD BRING HEAVIER SNOW
INTO A PORTION OF OUR AREA...SO AGAIN THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. AND EVEN IF THINGS GO AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT IS NO
SLOUCH AS WE ARE ANTICIPATING A GOOD 2 TO 4 INCH ACCUMULATION FOR
THE WYOMING VALLEY TO POCONOS TO SULLIVAN COUNTY NY TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. 

THIS WAVE WILL FEATURE NICE JET SUPPORT AND A THICK LAYER OF
FORCED ASCENT WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER.
COMPARED TO THE EVENT THAT JUST WRAPPED UP...BEING THE COLD SIDE
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE SNOW WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND FLUFFIER
WHICH WILL ALLOW IT TO ACCUMULATE QUITE WELL. THERE WILL BE A CUT
OFF IN AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE TWIN TIERS...HOWEVER IN THIS AREA AND
INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK...ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH OVERNIGHT
WITH RESULTING STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. SO WHILE ACTUAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN TWIN TIERS TO CENTRAL NY
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE MAY BE QUICK BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY...PROBABLY
ALSO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS VIA 290-300 FLOW IN CENTRAL NEW 
YORK...LINGERING AS FLURRIES EVEN INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY LOW TO MID TEENS TO START THE DAY
THURSDAY...AND WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE DUE TO STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK DROP THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS
THURSDAY EVENING. LOWS BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 5 ABOVE
TO 5 BELOW...THOUGH NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY MAY GET CLOSER TO 10
BELOW. WE ARE FIGURING ON WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW THURSDAY
NIGHT. SO INDEED...YET ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE. HOWEVER...THIS ONE
WILL NOT BE AS LONG LIVED AS RECENT EPISODES. FRIDAY WILL STILL BE
ON THE COLD SIDE...HIGHS UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...BUT MILDER TIMES
ARE EN ROUTE FOR THE WEEKEND. A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ALSO
EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE DRY ARCTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES.
CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE
APPROACHES...SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP VERY LITTLE /PROBABLY EVEN
RISE A BIT TOWARDS DAWN/.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
2 AM UPDATE...
JUST MINOR CHANGES FOLLOWING LATEST WPC GUIDANCE. THEY UPPED
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT GIVEN THE WEAK SYSTEMS IN THE
NORTHERN FLOW. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT WITH THE NORTHEAST U S TROF
HOLDING TOUGH. 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL MODIFY TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD. NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS PERIOD BUT A COUPLE OF NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEMS WILL
PASS THROUGH NEARBY SOUTHERN CANADA.

LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE REGION BRINGING CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. SATURDAY NIGHT ON BACK SIDE OF PASSING TROF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER W/NW FLOW. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH SFC HIGH PRES IN THE OHIO VALLEY THEN THE NEXT CLIPPER WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH MORE CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS FEATURE A WEAK LAKE
RESPONSE IS POSSIBLE UNDER WNW FLOW. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH PRES RESIDES IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
630 AM WED UPDATE...

LOW END MVFR CIGS DOMINATE WITH SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE.
STEADY LIGHT MIXED PRECIP AT AVP WHICH SHOULD END BY 15Z. 

BGM HAS DENSE FOG AND LIFR CIGS NEAR FLIGHT MINIMUMS. CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO IFR CIG/MVFR VSBY LATE MORNING THEN MVFR
THIS AFTN. AVP AND ITH COULD FALL TO IFR UP TO 14Z.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY TODAY AS CIGS RISE TO 2500 FEET
LATE MORN AND AFTN.

TONIGHT AN AREA OF SNOW COULD MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS AVP WITH AT
LEAST MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. IN NY BUT NW LL FLOW COULD DROP CIGS AT BGM
ITH TO 1500 FT ESPECIALLY LATE. 
  
W WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY. THIS EVE W TO NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10
KTS.

.OUTLOOK...

THU-THU NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHWRS...MAINLY CNY TERMINALS.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY FOR CNY TERMINALS.

SUNDAY...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...RRM/TAC
AVIATION...TAC






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