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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 260538
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1238 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
BRINGING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN
INTO A NOREASTER MONDAY NIGHT... WHICH MAY RESULT IN HEAVY SNOW
FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE POCONOS TO CATSKILLS
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A WINTRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
915 PM UPDATE...ALBERTA CLIPPER IS MOVING THROUGH KENTUCKY ATTM
WITH LIGHT SNOW JUST REACHING STATE COLLEGE PA AREA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY MID MORNING MONDAY WHEN THE
MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL SFC LOW BEGINS DEVELOPING. THIS
INITIAL SFC LOW WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NE PA SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT REACHING THE SOUTHERN TIER AROUND DAYBREAK THEN THE
NORTHERN CWA BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES. CURRENT
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST INCLUDED WAYNE COUNTY PA IN THE WATCH
AREA AS SNOW ACCUMS SEEM FAIRLY SIMILAR TO DELAWARE COUNTY AND
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH 18Z RUNS.

PREVIOUS DISC...
OLD FRONT HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH CAA. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY WEAKENING THIS MORNING AND EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS... WHAT IS LEFT OF THE ACTIVITY FROM THIS
MORNING TO DISSIPATE OVR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE INVERSION
HEIGHT DROPS QUITE A BIT. WITH THAT BEING SAID... EXPECT TO SEE
SOME SUN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE REGION BECOMES QUITE ACTIVE.
DUE TO CAA OVER THE REGION... TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 20S OVR THE
NORTH AND TMPS OVER THE SOUTH WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 30S. 

TONIGHT AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH
AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NE PA AND CNTL NY.
STILL EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE. STILL LOOKS LIKE 1
TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS CLIPPER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
215 PM UPDATE...
BY 12Z MONDAY, SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVR THE MID-MS VLY WL SHIFT EAST 
AND SET UP SOMEWHERE IN THE MID-APPALACHIAN REGION OF THE U.S. 
NAMELY FM WV SWRD TO WRN NC. H5 TROF WL BE SWINGING THRU THE REGION 
AT THIS TIME. 1025MB SFC HIGH WL BE SITUATED NORTH OF CWA MON MRNG 
WITH DRY AIR PRESENT ACRS NRN ZONES FOR A TIME DRG THE MRNG HRS. 
HIGH WL QUICKLY RETREAT INTO ERN CANADA IN THE AFTN ALLOWING SNOW TO 
OVERSPREAD ENTIRE CWA AFT 18Z. IN GNRL, EXPECTING 1-3 INCHES OVR FA 
THRU THE DAY MONDAY. 

AFTER 00Z, EXPECT THAT ENERGY WL BEGIN TRANSFERRING TO THE COAST. 
QUESTION THEN BCMS HOW FAR WEST THE SNOW CAN BE FLUNG BACK FM THE 
SFC LOW MON NGT/TUE MRNG. MODELS NOTORIOUSLY HV A HARD TIME WITH QPF 
PREDICTION AND THESE MILLER TYPE-B CYCLONES ARE EVEN WORSE THAN 
USUAL. 12Z NAM TRENDED WEST WITH SFC LOW WHILE 12Z GFS TRENDED A TAD 
FURTHER EAST AND 12Z EC STAYED THE COURSE.  BY 12Z TUESDAY SFC LOW 
IS AT THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. GFS IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN OTHER 
MED RANGE MODELS AND DON'T THINK THIS WL BE THE CASE. HV GONE WITH A 
BLEND OF THE LATEST NAM/EC AND WPC GUIDANCE. 

EXPECT LGT SNOW TO CONTINUE OFF AND ON MON NGT FOR FINGER LKS AS 
LIFT IS BCMNG FOCUSED MORE ON CYCLOGENESIS INTENSIFYING OFF THE 
COAST. HEAVIEST SNOW PROGGED TO RMN OVR SULLIVAN/PIKE CNTYS AFTER 
MIDNIGHT MON NGT CONTINUING INTO EARLY AFTN AS LOW STALLS/ 
RETROGRADES NR CAPE COD. CONFIDENCE IS VRY LOW ON THIS HAPPENING 
WITH ONLY EC INDICATING THE RETROGRESSION WHILE THE NAM STALLS 
SYSTEM WITH GFS/CMC MORE PROGRESSIVE. CONFIDENCE IS JUST NOT THERE 
TO GO WITH A WARNING AT THIS POINT SO WL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE 
WINTER STORM WATCH AND HV OPTED TO ADD OTSEGO AND DELAWARE CNTYS TO 
EXISTING WATCH. AS IT SEEMS FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT WE WL HIT WARNING 
CRITERIA SNOWS OVR EXTRM ERN SXNS AND WL EMPHASIZE THIS IN WINTER 
STORM PRODUCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
140 PM EST UPDATE... 
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CWA AND EXPECT SOME SUNSHINE
TO START OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. SUNSHINE WILL MOST LIKELY BE
SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS CLIPPER WILL START TO IMPACT THE REGION ON THURS AND
BRING LIGHT SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. DECIDED TO
MAKE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEPT POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH IN BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM ON SAT AND MAY CREATE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER. THE FURTHER OUT INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD THE LARGER
DISCREPANCIES THERE ARE BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE... THUS DECIDED TO
TAKE A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND KEPT LOW POPS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPS ON WED WILL BE WELL BELOW THE SEASONAL NORM... BUT WILL
MODERATE ON THURS AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL NORM THROUGH
FRI AFTERNOON TILL ANOTHER COLD FROM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THIS MORNING,
AND ACROSS THE NORTH BY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD IFR VSBYS AND MVFR
CIGS EXPECTED.

MAIN UPDATE WITH THIS UPDATE WAS TO DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF THE SNOW
BY AN HOUR OR SO DUE TO VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE. AN ARRIVAL BETWEEN
07Z AND 10Z AT KAVP, BETWEEN 11Z AND 15Z AT KELM/KBGM/KITH, AND
AFTER 17Z AT KSYR AND KRME. WHILE WE DON'T EXPECT MODERATE OR
HEAVY SNOW, WIDESPREAD 1SM TO 2SM IS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY MVFR
CIGS. SOME IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KBGM AND KITH DUE TO THE
ELEVATION OF THE TERMINAL.

OUTLOOK...

TONIGHT...IFR VSBYS IN SNOW.
TUE...IFR VSBYS IN SNOW, ESPECIALLY KAVP. MVFR/IFR ELSEWHERE IN
SCT. LIGHT SNOW.
 
TUE NGT-WED...LINGERING LAKE EFFECT -SHSN AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE
MAINLY NY TERMINALS INTO WED MORNING...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.

THU AND FRI...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY 
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ040-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY 
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ046-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH/RRM
NEAR TERM...KAH/RRM
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...HEDEN






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