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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 180044
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
844 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SKY WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH COOL 
TEMPERATURES AND EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG. A COLD FRONT
WILL SAG THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND OF
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES...MAINLY IN UPSTATE NEW YORK.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A CLEARING SKY AND FROST IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TWIN TIERS NORTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
840 PM UPDATE...
CLOUDS ARE HANGING ON LONGER THAN EXPECTED...WHICH HAS BEEN A
BIT OF A TREND OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THAT IN MIND,
ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS ACCORDINGLY AND RAISED IMMEDIATE TERM
TEMPERATURES, WHILE SLIGHTLY BOOSTING OVERNIGHT MINS.

2 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CHARGE FOR NOW...BUT A COLD FRONT SEPARATES
OUR PACIFIC ORIGIN HIGH FROM A STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH WITH A
SOURCE REGION IN THE NORTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THAT FRONT
STRETCHES FROM UPPER MICHIGAN THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO/SOUTHERN
QUEBEC. IT IS SAGGING OUR DIRECTION...THOUGH A BIT MORE SLOWLY
THAN PRIOR MODEL RUNS HAD INDICATED.

SCT-BKN CELLULAR CUMULUS CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA BUT
WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...LEADING TO A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES
VIA RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH THE SLOWER PACE OF THE FRONT...MOST
OF THE NIGHT WILL BE CLEAR WHICH WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR VALLEY FOG
FORMATION. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY 40-45 DEGREES..EXCEPT
MORE TOWARDS UPPER 40S IN THE FINGER LAKES TO SYRACUSE AREAS WHERE
PRE-FRONTAL FLOW...SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS...AND INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE WILL ALL HOLD BACK THE TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS
MUCH COMPARED TO POINTS FARTHER SOUTH.

THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLIP DOWN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR MAINLY JUST IN THE LOW
LEVELS...1000-500MB THICKNESSES WILL ACTUALLY BARELY BUDGE. IT
WILL ALSO BE QUITE DRY ALOFT. SHALLOW NATURE OF FRONT WILL THUS
KEEP ITS IMPACT TO JUST A DECK OF CLOUDS WITH DEPTH LIMITED TO
BELOW 10 KFT AGL...AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS.
ALSO...IN THE NORTH NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND EXPECTED...IN
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE LEVEL OR FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
CENTRAL NEW YORK WHILE NORTHEAST PA WILL HAVE A MORE NORMAL
DIURNAL TIMING FOR HIGHS. GENERALLY SPEAKING...MID 60S TO LOW 70S
IN NEPA TO SULLIVAN CO NY...AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FARTHER NORTH
FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
315 PM UPDATE...
A FEW OF THE TYPICALLY COLDER POCKETS OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND
POCONOS HAVE ALREADY HAD A LITTLE PATCHY FROST...BUT MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF OUR AREA MAY JOIN THEM BY DAWN FRIDAY. LARGE SURFACE
HIGH SHIFTING FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO WESTERN ONTARIO
TODAY...HAS A SOURCE REGION FROM FAR NORTHERN CANADA. RADIATIONAL
COOLING DIRECTLY UNDER IT EARLY THIS MORNING RESULTED IN AN 11Z
READING OF 19 DEGREES AT LYNN LAKE IN NORTHERN MANITOBA. OF COURSE
WE WILL NOT GET THAT COLD...BUT IT IS A HINT THAT THIS HIGH
PRESSURE IS A DIFFERENT ANIMAL FROM THE ONE CURRENTLY IN OUR
REGION /OF PACIFIC ORIGIN/.

AFTER PASSAGE OF SHALLOW COLD FRONT THURSDAY...REMAINDER OF CLOUDS
WILL BREAK UP THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR LOWERING DEW POINTS AND STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING. MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE THEIR
LOWEST READINGS SO FAR THIS SEASON...WITH WIDESPREAD 30S FROM TWIN
TIERS NORTHWARD AND PROBABLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN
NORTHERN REACHES OF ONEIDA COUNTY. FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED
FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. THE REMAINDER OF THE NEW YORK ZONES
AND NORTHERN TIER OF PA...WHILE MOSTLY NOT GETTING TO
FREEZING...SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AREAS OF FROST /THE FIRST
TIME THE SEASON FOR MOST OF THOSE AREAS/. MEANWHILE...FARTHER
SOUTH IN PA...IN THE WYOMING VALLEY AND PIKE COUNTY...FROST WILL
BE NOT LIKELY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40-45 RANGE.

QUIET FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE
SHIFTING TO THE COAST...RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ESPECIALLY INTO
SATURDAY AND THUS WARMER TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEKEND.
MARINE LAYER AIR UPSLOPING AGAINST AND THEN OVER THE CATSKILLS-
POCONOS WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
250 PM EDT UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL PUSH A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN GUIDANCE
WITHIN THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER
GUIDANCE DOES AGREE THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA. 

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY. THIS
TIME AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY POTENT... THUS COOLER
NIGHTS AND DAYS ARE EXPECTED STARTING MONDAY. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY AND END THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z THU UPDATE... MAINLY VFR IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. THE ONE
EXCEPTION IS KELM...WHERE DENSE VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED ONCE
AGN...PRODUCING IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER ABT 08Z.

DURG THE DAY THU...A COLD FRNT SHOULD PASS THROUGH CNY/NE PA
RATHER EARLY...GENERALLY IN THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH LTL OR
NO PCPN SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FRNT ITSELF...A PD OF MVFR CIGS IS
EXPECTED POST-FROPA AT KSYR/KRME/KITH. AT LEAST THE LOWEST CIG
BASES SHOULD HAVE A TENDENCY TO BREAK UP WITH SWD EXTENT...SO VFR
CIG BASES ARE PROGGED AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE AT KELM/KBGM/KAVP.

LGT SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT (AOB 5 KT)...WILL SHIFT INTO THE N AND NW
ON THU...AT 8-10 KT.

OUTLOOK...

FRI AND SAT...VFR...EXCEPT FOR LATE NGT/EARLY MORNING FOG AT KELM.

SUN AND MON...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN SHWRS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING 
     FOR NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...KAH/MLJ






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