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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 220536
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1236 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS AND COOL AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY AS
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN MIDWEST IN
COMBINATION WITH A LOW MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION, FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY RAIN INTO
MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...
THE MAIN GRID CHANGES FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WERE TO AMP UP THE
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT TO NEAR OVERCAST. NO REASON TO BELIEVE,
BASED ON CURRENT CLOUD COVER AND THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION
ALOFT, THAT WE WILL SEE APPRECIABLE CLEARING AT ANY POINT.

THE OVERNIGHT MINS NEEDED SOME WORK, TOO. MAINLY BROUGHT A FEW
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE WYOMING VALLEY WHERE THE CURRENT
TEMPS WERE CLOSE TO THE PROJECTED MINS.

OTHERWISE, THE PREVIOUS GRIDS LOOK GREAT AND ONLY NEEDED MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS. 


4 PM UPDATRE...
NO ONE CAN SAY THE BGM/S REPUTATION FOR CLDS IS UNDESERVED AFT
THIS STRETCH OF OVC WX. AREA OF CLRG OVER THE NRN FINGER LAKES AND
ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN QUICKLY FILLED IN AS HTG BUBBLED UP ADTNL
MOISTURE INTO A NEW SC DECK. WHILE SOME OF THE MODELS INSIST THAT
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO CLR THE AREA THIS EVE INTO MON...
STUBBORNLY STRNG INV REMAINS IN PLACE...AND WITH LGT WINDS AND NO
MIXING...SEE LTL TO BRK UP THE CLDS IN PLACE. ALSO...SAT IMAGES
SHOW A SOLID DECK ALL THE WAY BACK INTO EERN OH THIS AFT. WHEN
WINDS FNLY DO DVLP MON MRNG...THEY/RE FROM THE SE PTNLY ADDING
MOISTURE TO THE SNDG. SO...HAVE GONE AGAINST MODEL GUID AND GONE
WITH EXPERIENCE AND CONSISTENCY AND CONTD THE CLDS THRU THE NEAR
TERM.

TEMPS ENDED UP STAYING BLO GUID FCST TODAY AS THE STUBBORN CLDS
DID NOT ALLOW ANY HTG AS ANTICIPATED BY MOS. XPCT LTL DIURNAL CHG
OVRNGT WITH THE CLDS. FOR MON...SOME WEAK WAA DOES OCCUR WITH THE
SELY FLOW SO HAVE GONE NEARER GUID FCST. SOME LGT PCPN MAY DVLP
OVER THE SERN ZONES ON MON AS A WEAK WV PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH.
TEMPS MRGNL SO HAVE GONE WITH MIXED PCPN WHICH BLENDED WELL WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
300 PM EST UPDATE... A LARGE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NY
AND PA STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUES MORNING AND MAY LINGER
THROUGH LATE THURS NIGHT...

MANY UNCERTAINTIES STILL EXIST WITH THIS STORM. BUT...
SYNOPTICALLY... GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
UPPR LOW. GUIDANCE ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD IDEA OF THE OVERALL
PROGRESSION OF THE SFC LOW AND IT MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.

LATE MONDAY NIGHT THE POTENT UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD
ALONG AND SLIGHTLY E OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND GENERATE
CYCLOGENESIS OVR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF KS AND NE. THIS SFC LOW
WILL THEN TRACK NE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. BY TUES
MORNING A STRONG VORT MAXIMA WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPR
TROUGH OVR FAR S TX GENERATING A SECONDARY SFC LOW/SFC TROUGH OVR
E LA. AS THIS OCCURS... THE MAIN SFC LOW OVER THE NORTH WILL BECOME
OCCLUDED.

THE UPPR TROUGH WILL START TO SHIFT EAST TUES NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS EAST THE SECONDARY SFC LOW/TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH THE
PRIMARY SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR CWA AND
BRING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION STARTING LATE MONDAY NIGHT
LASTING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AS THIS SYSTEM STARTS TO GENERATE PRECIP... EXPECT THE PRECIP TO
START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX AND MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. THIS IS DUE TO WAA AND ISENTROPHIC LIFT AHEAD THE
OCCLUDED FRONT. PRECIP WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE N AND WEST. A STRONG
LLJ WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CWA LATE TUES MORNING/AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN STRONG WAA AND GUSTY WINDS OVR THE REGION. BY TUES
AFTERNOON THE WAA WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AND ALL PRECIP WILL
FALL AS RAIN. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH
WED NIGHT. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES AS PWAT
VALUES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE COLDER ATTENDANT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION THURS MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY GUSTY BEHIND
THE FROPA. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT HAVE VERY COLD AIR WITH IT DUE IT
WHERE IT ORIGINATED. IT IS A PACIFIC AIRMASS NOT AN ARCTIC.
THUS... TEMPS WILL NOT DROP DRAMATICALLY POST FRONTAL.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ATTM TO BE HEAVY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FNT SWINGS THRU FRI NGT AND RETURNS THE AREA TO MORE TYPICAL
EARLY WINTER WX. CONTD CAA WILL GRADUALLY LWR TEMPS THRU THE PD
INCRSG THE CHANCE OF LE SNOW SHWRS. SHEARED FLOW ININTIALLY BHD
THE FNT WILL LIMIT THE AMT OF LE...WHILE THE DEEPER COLD AIR AITS
TO JUST BEYOND THE PD LATE SUN AND EARLY MON.

TEMPS WILL AVG NEAR NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WITH A CIG AROUND
1200 FEET NOW AT KBGM, SOME IFR IS POSSIBLE HERE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

PRECIPITATION OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS EARLY TONIGHT AS A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. SOME ICE PELLETS POSSIBLE NY TERMINALS. FOR NOW I
LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN. SOME OF THIS IS POSSIBLE
MAINLY AT KBGM, BUT TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE JUST YET.

WINDS LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST 5 TO 10 KTS. 

OUTLOOK...

TUE TO THURS...RESTRICTIONS WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION EARLY TUE...THEN PERIODS OF RAIN TUE- THURS.

FRI...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...HEDEN






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