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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KBGM 291040
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
640 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP IT DRY AND SEASONABLE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. AFTER A FEW SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH DRY AND
EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
COAST TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGH. HIGH CLOUDS OVER NY/PA NOW WILL THICKEN AND LOWER AS THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO SW AND STRENGTHENS. THESES CLOUDS
INTO OHIO ALREADY. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY LATE TODAY INTO SUNDAY. 

VALLEY FOG NOW WILL BURN OFF AGAIN BY 9 OR 10. TONIGHT WITH THE
CLOUDS FOG LESS LIKELY. ALSO BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP THE
LOW LEVELS MIXED. 

TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AS EARLIER FORECASTED WITH
HIGHS TODAY AROUND 80 AND LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT IN THE MIDWEST WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY. BEST CHANCES IN STEUBEN
AND BRADFORD COUNTIES. SOME FORCING AND LIFT WITH THE UL SHORT
WAVE AND SFC TROF BUT LITTLE INSTABILITY. INCREASE IN LL MOISTURE
BUT MID LEVEL REMAIN WARM. 

WITH THE BEST FORCING SHIFTING S AND SE SUNDAY NIGHT IT WILL BE
DRY LATE SUN NGT ON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN MONDAY NIGHT
WITH A LARGE UL RIDGE. WARMER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WITH THE
RIDGING WILL PUSH HIGHS MONDAY INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S. LOWS
AROUND 60 SUN NGT AND MON NGT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
435 AM UPDATE...MODELS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS, SO NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST. A GREAT STRETCH OF LATE SUMMER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE THE STRONGEST AND MOST PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SO
FAR THIS SUMMER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST. GFS STILL
INDICATES A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
ECMWF MUCH FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS BOUNDARY. WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RUN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

300 PM UPDATE...
MAINLY DRY AND WARM, A REAL NICE END TO SUMMER! THE TREND FROM
THE PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUES IN THAT ANY SUPPORT FOR AN UPPER LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A HINT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
HAS DIMINISHED. 500 MB HEIGHTS OF 590 DM+ THROUGH MID WEEK SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH OUR WARM SPOTS TOUCHING 90 A
GOOD POSSIBILITY. PERHAPS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY, WE MAY SEE A SHOT AT SOME RAIN AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
AND A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE 12Z EURO
KEEPS US DRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ANY FRONT REMAINING OVER NEW
ENGLAND. THE GFS IS QUICKER, WITH A THURSDAY ARRIVAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KELM, DENSE FOG NEAR AIRPORT MINS WILL LIFT BY 13Z. REST OF
TAF PERIOD WILL BE VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES. TODAY EXPECT SCATTERED
FAIR WEATHER CU AROUND 5K FT AND THICKENING CI. OVERNIGHT AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BRING A MID DECK INTO THE
TERMINALS.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING SW AROUND 5 KNOTS BY MID MORNING THEN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. GENERALLY VFR
WITH LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING
WITH THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION KELM AS USUAL. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS CAN ALSO OCCUR EACH DAY HOWEVER MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...HEDEN/RRM
AVIATION...RRM



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